NHL Total Model

Last model runThu, Oct 29 · 6:20 PM EDT

Today's slate

Thursday, October 29 · 11 games · 4 flags · bar tick = high-scoring cutoff (3.10 goals) · starters as of 2026-10-29 18:20

Breakdown (for scoring):greatgoodmidbadtrash

Team

Game

Goalies

Projection breakdown

Team

Proj

Proj total

P(7+)

Line

Goalie

5v5

Oth

B2B

Spd

Inj

UTA#5 OFF / #9 DEF

3.76●

6.87

53%

7:00 PM ET
🔨 SLAM ⚠ lineup
6.5 o-116 → 6.5 o-135

K. Vejmelka Likely OK 31

2.30

0.67

+3.8%

0.52

–

+3.7%

+0.1%

PIT#10 OFF / #24 DEF

3.11●

A. Silovs ✓ Trash 4

2.11

0.61

-0.7%

0.53

–

-3.5%

-0.1%

⚠ Lineup change since 12:05 AM: Evgeni Malkin now Game-time (was Day-to-day, seen 12:17 PM) · PIT ±2.6% · projection 6.93 → 6.87

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
UTA	2.21#7 of 32	2.12#21 of 32	2.30goals	0.71#3 of 32	0.53#6 of 32	0.67goals
PIT	2.27#5 of 32	1.89#7 of 32	2.11goals	0.56#19 of 32	0.60#21 of 32	0.61goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Tonight	Player	If out	Tonight
UTA	Dylan Guenther R	-4.0%	Plays	Clayton Keller R	+1.6%	Plays
	Clayton Keller R	-3.9%	Plays	Nate Schmidt D	+1.4%	Plays
	Nick Schmaltz C	-3.4%	Plays	Barrett Hayton C	+1.1%	Plays
	Logan Cooley C	-2.7%	Plays	Dylan Guenther R	+1.0%	Plays
	Mikhail Sergachev D	-1.6%	Plays	Nick Schmaltz C	+0.9%	Plays
PIT	Sidney Crosby C	-3.7%	Plays	Tommy Novak C	+0.9%	Plays
	Rickard Rakell R	-2.9%	Plays	Ben Kindel C	+0.8%	Game-time
	⚠ Evgeni Malkin C	-2.6%	Game-timewas Day-to-day	Samuel Girard D	+0.7%	Game-time
	Bryan Rust R	-2.5%	OUT · IR	Kaedan Korczak D	+0.7%	Plays
	Erik Karlsson D	-1.9%	Plays	Ville Koivunen R	+0.5%	Plays

Also out: UTA: John Marino +0.2% attack, +0.8% defense; Michael Carcone -0.5% attack, +0.6% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved today (6.93 → 6.87)

12:05 AM 6.93 first run
3:14 AM 6.94 +0.01PIT goalie: Sergei Murashov → Arturs Silovs +0.07; UTA goalie: Sebastian Cossa → Karel Vejmelka -0.06
6:44 AM 6.94 Line 6.5 o-136 → 6.5 o-141
11:23 AM 6.90 -0.04Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.04; PIT goalie Arturs Silovs: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-141 → 6.5 o-134
12:17 PM 6.90 Injuries / lineup: Ben Kindel (PIT) back in +0.00; Ben Kindel (PIT) day-to-day
1:17 PM 6.90 Line 6.5 o-134 → 6.5 o-132
2:17 PM 6.91 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Nick DeSimone (UTA) out +0.01; UTA lineup: Projected Oct 29 1:36 PM; Line 6.5 o-132 → 6.5 o-133
3:19 PM 6.87 -0.04Injuries / lineup: Samuel Girard (PIT) back in -0.04; Samuel Girard (PIT) day-to-day
4:20 PM 6.87 Line 6.5 o-133 → 6.5 o-135
4:49 PM 6.87 no change
6:20 PM 6.87 no change

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

🔨 SLAM: both teams project as high-scoring (UTA 3.76, PIT 3.11; cutoff 3.10), the line is 6.5, and both are good or better at 5-on-5, the strongest over spot the model has. At 5-on-5, UTA is great (2.30) and PIT is good (2.11); on the power play, UTA is great (0.67) and PIT is good (0.61). UTA faces Arturs Silovs, a Trash goalie, grade 4 (+3.8%); PIT faces Karel Vejmelka, an OK goalie, grade 31 (-0.7%). Starters aren't confirmed yet, so this can change. Other factors: UTA's team speed adds 3.7%; PIT's team speed costs 3.5%. UTA 3.76: 0.61 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.27 (its attack ranks #7 of 32, PIT's defense #21); team speed +0.13 (it skates faster than PIT, +3.7%); Arturs Silovs in goal +0.13 (a Trash goalie, grade 4, +3.8%); power play +0.09 (its power play ranks #3, PIT's penalty kill and penalty habits #6). PIT 3.11: 0.03 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.07 (its attack ranks #5 of 32, UTA's defense #7); power play +0.03 (its power play ranks #19, UTA's penalty kill and penalty habits #21). Holding it back: team speed -0.11 (it skates slower than UTA, -3.5%); Karel Vejmelka in goal -0.02 (an OK goalie, grade 31, -0.7%). The model projects 6.87 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 53% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over 55% of the time at the opening line and 56.5% at the closing line in 2021-26.

VAN#30 OFF / #32 DEF

3.32●

6.79

54%

10:00 PM ET
PASS
6.5 o-116 → 6.5 o-130

L. Merilainen ✓ Trash 6

2.00

0.74

+1.9%

0.52

–

-0.4%

+0.2%

SJS#21 OFF / #31 DEF

3.48●

Y. Askarov ✓ Trash 11

2.11

0.79

+2.8%

0.52

–

+0.1%

-1.3%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
VAN	1.79#28 of 32	2.28#30 of 32	2.00goals	0.57#17 of 32	0.71#32 of 32	0.74goals
SJS	1.77#30 of 32	2.42#32 of 32	2.11goals	0.62#10 of 32	0.70#31 of 32	0.79goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Tonight	Player	If out	Tonight
VAN	Brock Boeser R	-1.9%	Plays	Linus Karlsson C	+0.7%	Plays
	Elias Pettersson C	-1.8%	Plays	Jake DeBrusk L	+0.5%	Plays
	Jake DeBrusk L	-1.8%	Plays	Tom Willander D	+0.5%	Plays
	Marco Rossi C	-1.1%	Plays	Marco Rossi C	+0.5%	Plays
	Linus Karlsson C	-1.0%	Plays	Zeev Buium D	+0.4%	Plays
SJS	Macklin Celebrini C	-5.0%	Plays	Macklin Celebrini C	+0.7%	Plays
	Will Smith C	-2.4%	Plays	Tyler Toffoli C	+0.6%	Plays
	Tyler Toffoli C	-2.0%	Plays	Will Smith C	+0.6%	Plays
	Kiefer Sherwood L	-0.9%	Plays	Dmitry Orlov D	+0.5%	Plays
	Alexander Wennberg C	-0.8%	OUT · IR	Mason Marchment L	+0.4%	Plays

Also out: SJS: Igor Chernyshov -0.7% attack, +0.4% defense

How the projection moved today (6.73 → 6.79)

12:05 AM 6.73 first run
3:14 AM 6.73 Line 6.5 o-134 → 6.5 o-135
6:44 AM 6.73 no change
11:23 AM 6.82 +0.09SJS goalie: Alex Nedeljkovic → Yaroslav Askarov +0.08; VAN goalie Leevi Merilainen: rating updated +0.03; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.03; Line 6.5 o-135 → 6.5 o-130
12:17 PM 6.79 -0.02SJS goalie Yaroslav Askarov: rating updated -0.02; Line 6.5 o-130 → 6.5 o-127
1:17 PM 6.79 Line 6.5 o-127 → 6.5 o-126
2:17 PM 6.79 SJS goalie Yaroslav Askarov: Likely → Confirmed
3:19 PM 6.79 VAN goalie Leevi Merilainen: Likely → Confirmed; VAN lineup: Dan Murphy Oct 29 2:37 PM; Line 6.5 o-126 → 6.5 o-130
4:20 PM 6.79 Line 6.5 o-130 → 6.5 o-129
4:49 PM 6.79 no change
6:20 PM 6.79 Line 6.5 o-129 → 6.5 o-130

PASS: both teams project as high-scoring (VAN 3.32, SJS 3.48; cutoff 3.10) and the line is 6.5, but neither is great at 5-on-5 (VAN mid, SJS good) and they aren't both good, so there's no team to carry the over. At 5-on-5, VAN is mid (2.00) and SJS is good (2.11); on the power play, VAN is great (0.74) and SJS is great (0.79). VAN faces Yaroslav Askarov, a Trash goalie, grade 11 (+1.9%); SJS faces Leevi Merilainen, a Trash goalie, grade 6 (+2.8%). VAN 3.32: 0.17 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: power play +0.16 (its power play ranks #17, SJS's penalty kill and penalty habits #32); Yaroslav Askarov in goal +0.06 (a Trash goalie, grade 11, +1.9%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.03 (its attack ranks #28 of 32, SJS's defense #30); team speed -0.01 (it skates slower than SJS, -0.4%). SJS 3.48: 0.33 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: power play +0.21 (its power play ranks #10, VAN's penalty kill and penalty habits #31); Leevi Merilainen in goal +0.10 (a Trash goalie, grade 6, +2.8%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.08 (its attack ranks #30 of 32, VAN's defense #32). Holding it back: injuries -0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.3%). The model projects 6.79 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 54% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Flagged games like this went over only 47% of the time in 2021-26.

WSH#8 OFF / #23 DEF

3.35●

6.71

54%

8:00 PM ET
1U
5.5 o-141 → 6.5 o-105

C. Lindgren Likely OK 21

2.52

0.50

-1.5%

0.53

-8.0%

+3.5%

+0.6%

NSH#14 OFF / #20 DEF

3.36●

J. Saros ✓ Mid 42

1.95

0.76

+0.3%

0.52

+6.5%

-3.6%

+0.9%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
WSH	2.34#4 of 32	2.19#28 of 32	2.52goals	0.52#24 of 32	0.54#9 of 32	0.50goals
NSH	1.85#26 of 32	2.15#22 of 32	1.95goals	0.63#9 of 32	0.67#29 of 32	0.76goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Tonight	Player	If out	Tonight
WSH	Alex Ovechkin L	-3.4%	Plays	Jakob Chychrun D	+1.1%	Plays
	Dylan Strome C	-3.1%	Plays	Justin Sourdif C	+0.7%	Plays
	Tom Wilson R	-3.0%	Plays	Dylan Strome C	+0.6%	Plays
	Jakob Chychrun D	-2.5%	Plays	Ryan Leonard R	+0.6%	Plays
	Aliaksei Protas L	-1.7%	Plays	Alex Ovechkin L	+0.5%	Plays
NSH	Filip Forsberg L	-4.3%	Plays	Filip Forsberg L	+0.7%	Plays
	Steven Stamkos C	-4.1%	Plays	Steven Stamkos C	+0.6%	Plays
	Ryan O'Reilly C	-3.3%	Plays	Adam Wilsby D	+0.5%	Plays
	Roman Josi D	-1.6%	Plays	Ross Colton C	+0.5%	Plays
	Jonathan Marchessault R	-1.3%	Plays	Roman Josi D	+0.4%	Plays

How the projection moved today (6.37 → 6.71)

12:05 AM 6.37 first run
3:14 AM 6.64 +0.27WSH goalie: Logan Thompson → Charlie Lindgren +0.27
6:44 AM 6.64 Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o-102
11:23 AM 6.71 +0.07Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.08; WSH lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-28); Line 6.5 o-102 → 6.5 o-105
12:17 PM 6.71 NSH goalie Juuse Saros: Likely → Confirmed; NSH lineup: Max Herz Oct 29 11:54 AM; Line 6.5 o-105 → 6.5 o-104
1:17 PM 6.71 Line 6.5 o-104 → 6.5 o-105
2:17 PM 6.71 no change
3:19 PM 6.71 no change
4:20 PM 6.71 no change
4:49 PM 6.71 no change
6:20 PM 6.71 no change

1U: both teams project as high-scoring (WSH 3.35, NSH 3.36; cutoff 3.10) and the line is 6.5; WSH is great at 5-on-5 and can carry the over, but NSH is only mid, so it's an over but not a slam. At 5-on-5, WSH is great (2.52) and NSH is mid (1.95); on the power play, WSH is bad (0.50) and NSH is great (0.76). WSH faces Juuse Saros, a Mid goalie, grade 42 (-1.5%); NSH faces Charlie Lindgren, an OK goalie, grade 21 (+0.3%). Starters aren't confirmed yet, so this can change. Other factors: WSH played yesterday (-8%); WSH's team speed adds 3.5%; NSH's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); NSH's team speed costs 3.6%. WSH 3.35: 0.21 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.48 (its attack ranks #4 of 32, NSH's defense #28); team speed +0.11 (it skates faster than NSH, +3.5%); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.6%). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.28 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); power play -0.08 (its power play ranks #24, NSH's penalty kill and penalty habits #9); Juuse Saros in goal -0.05 (a Mid goalie, grade 42, -1.5%). NSH 3.36: 0.22 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.21 (WSH played yesterday, +6.5%); power play +0.18 (its power play ranks #9, WSH's penalty kill and penalty habits #29); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.9%). Holding it back: team speed -0.13 (it skates slower than WSH, -3.6%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.08 (its attack ranks #26 of 32, WSH's defense #22). The model projects 6.71 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 54% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 5.5 to 6.5, toward the over. Games like this went over 58% of the time at the opening line and 59% at the closing line in 2021-26.

BUF#18 OFF / #18 DEF

3.50●

6.65

52%

10:00 PM ET
🔨 SLAM
6.5 o-116 → 6.5 o-125

C. Ellis ✓ Mid 46

2.32

0.62

-0.6%

0.52

–

+1.6%

+0.3%

ANA#12 OFF / #30 DEF

3.15●

L. Dostal Likely OK 30

2.10

0.62

-1.8%

0.53

–

-1.0%

-0.3%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
BUF	2.10#11 of 32	2.24#29 of 32	2.32goals	0.51#26 of 32	0.66#27 of 32	0.62goals
ANA	2.08#14 of 32	2.05#15 of 32	2.10goals	0.57#17 of 32	0.60#22 of 32	0.62goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Tonight	Player	If out	Tonight
BUF	Tage Thompson C	-4.5%	Plays	Rasmus Dahlin D	+1.3%	Plays
	Jack Quinn R	-2.2%	Plays	Noah Ostlund C	+1.2%	Plays
	Rasmus Dahlin D	-2.2%	Plays	Zach Benson L	+1.1%	Plays
	Josh Doan R	-1.8%	Plays	Josh Doan R	+1.0%	Plays
	Jason Zucker L	-1.6%	Plays	Tage Thompson C	+0.8%	Plays
ANA	Leo Carlsson C	-3.2%	Plays	Leo Carlsson C	+0.6%	Plays
	Beckett Sennecke R	-3.1%	Plays	Beckett Sennecke R	+0.5%	Plays
	Cutter Gauthier L	-3.0%	Plays	Cutter Gauthier L	+0.4%	Plays
	Mikael Granlund C	-1.9%	Plays	Ian Moore D	+0.3%	OUT · IR
	Jackson LaCombe D	-1.3%	Plays	Tyson Hinds D	+0.3%	Plays

Also out: ANA: Troy Terry -1.2% attack, +0.2% defense

How the projection moved today (6.66 → 6.65)

12:05 AM 6.66 first run
3:14 AM 6.67 +0.01BUF goalie: Colten Ellis → Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen +0.01
6:44 AM 6.67 no change
11:23 AM 6.66 -0.01BUF goalie: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen → Colten Ellis -0.05; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.03; ANA goalie Lukas Dostal: rating updated +0.01
12:17 PM 6.66 no change
1:17 PM 6.66 no change
2:17 PM 6.66 no change
3:19 PM 6.66 BUF goalie Colten Ellis: Likely → Confirmed; BUF lineup: Paul Hamilton Oct 29 3:05 PM
4:20 PM 6.65 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Sam Carrick (BUF) back in -0.01
4:49 PM 6.65 no change
6:20 PM 6.65 ANA lineup: Derek Lee Oct 29 6:18 PM

🔨 SLAM: both teams project as high-scoring (BUF 3.50, ANA 3.15; cutoff 3.10), the line is 6.5, and both are good or better at 5-on-5, the strongest over spot the model has. At 5-on-5, BUF is great (2.32) and ANA is good (2.10); on the power play, BUF is good (0.62) and ANA is good (0.62). BUF faces Lukas Dostal, an OK goalie, grade 30 (-0.6%); ANA faces Colten Ellis, a Mid goalie, grade 46 (-1.8%). Starters aren't confirmed yet, so this can change. BUF 3.50: 0.36 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.28 (its attack ranks #11 of 32, ANA's defense #29); team speed +0.05 (it skates faster than ANA, +1.6%); power play +0.04 (its power play ranks #26, ANA's penalty kill and penalty habits #27); injuries +0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.3%). Holding it back: Lukas Dostal in goal -0.02 (an OK goalie, grade 30, -0.6%). ANA 3.15: 0.00 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.06 (its attack ranks #14 of 32, BUF's defense #15); power play +0.04 (its power play ranks #17, BUF's penalty kill and penalty habits #22). Holding it back: Colten Ellis in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 46, -1.8%); team speed -0.03 (it skates slower than BUF, -1.0%). The model projects 6.65 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 52% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over 55% of the time at the opening line and 56.5% at the closing line in 2021-26.

WPG#25 OFF / #19 DEF

2.59●

6.26

44%

7:00 PM ET
AVOID ⚠ lineup
6.5 o+105 → 6 o-110

S. Skinner ✓ Mid 56

1.78

0.55

-7.8%

0.53

–

-2.1%

+0.1%

TBL#4 OFF / #7 DEF

3.67●

A. Vasilevskiy ✓ Strong 91

2.44

0.63

-2.7%

0.52

–

+1.8%

+3.4%

⚠ Lineup change since 12:05 AM: Brandon Hagel now Plays (was Day-to-day, seen 12:17 PM) · TBL +5.1% · projection 6.42 → 6.26

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
WPG	1.90#24 of 32	1.91#9 of 32	1.78goals	0.54#21 of 32	0.56#14 of 32	0.55goals
TBL	2.36#3 of 32	2.10#20 of 32	2.44goals	0.60#13 of 32	0.58#17 of 32	0.63goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Tonight	Player	If out	Tonight
WPG	Kyle Connor L	-4.9%	Plays	Cole Perfetti C	+1.4%	Plays
	Mark Scheifele C	-4.5%	Plays	Josh Morrissey D	+0.8%	OUT · IR
	Gabriel Vilardi C	-2.8%	Plays	Nino Niederreiter R	+0.7%	OUT · scratch
	Cole Perfetti C	-1.6%	Plays	Alex Iafallo L	+0.7%	Plays
	Josh Morrissey D	-1.0%	OUT · IR	Gabriel Vilardi C	+0.6%	Plays
TBL	Nikita Kucherov R	-7.3%	Plays	Gage Goncalves C	+1.3%	Plays
	Jake Guentzel C	-5.2%	Plays	Pontus Holmberg R	+1.1%	Plays
	⚠ Brandon Hagel L	-5.1%	Playswas Day-to-day	Nikita Kucherov R	+1.0%	Plays
	Brayden Point C	-3.6%	Plays	Jake Guentzel C	+0.9%	Plays
	Anthony Cirelli C	-2.7%	Plays	Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	+0.9%	Plays

How the projection moved today (6.42 → 6.26)

12:05 AM 6.42 first run
3:14 AM 6.30 -0.12WPG goalie: Nico Daws → Stuart Skinner -0.12; Line 5.5 o-139 → 6 o-115
6:44 AM 6.30 Line 6 o-115 → 6 o-110
11:23 AM 6.26 -0.03Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.03; TBL goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy: Likely → Confirmed
12:17 PM 6.26 WPG goalie Stuart Skinner: Likely → Confirmed; WPG lineup: Mike McIntyre Oct 29 11:55 AM; Brandon Hagel (TBL) off day-to-day; Victor Hedman (TBL) off day-to-day; TBL lineup: Benjamin Pierce Oct 29 11:51 AM
1:17 PM 6.26 Line 6 o-110 → 6 o-127
2:17 PM 6.26 no change
3:19 PM 6.26 WPG lineup: @NHLJets Oct 29 2:34 PM; Line 6 o-127 → 6 o-110
4:20 PM 6.26 no change
4:49 PM 6.26 no change
6:20 PM 6.26 no change

AVOID: WPG projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (WPG 2.59). The 6.26 total looks high, but most of it comes from TBL; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, WPG is trash (1.78) and TBL is great (2.44); on the power play, WPG is mid (0.55) and TBL is good (0.63). WPG faces Andrei Vasilevskiy, a Strong goalie, grade 91 (-7.8%); TBL faces Stuart Skinner, a Mid goalie, grade 56 (-2.7%). Other factors: WPG's team speed costs 2.1%; injuries help TBL 3.4%. WPG 2.59: 0.55 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.25 (its attack ranks #24 of 32, TBL's defense #9); Andrei Vasilevskiy in goal -0.22 (a Strong goalie, grade 91, -7.8%); team speed -0.05 (it skates slower than TBL, -2.1%); power play -0.03 (its power play ranks #21, TBL's penalty kill and penalty habits #14). TBL 3.67: 0.53 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.40 (its attack ranks #3 of 32, WPG's defense #20); injuries +0.12 (missing players on both teams, net, +3.4%); team speed +0.06 (it skates faster than WPG, +1.8%); power play +0.05 (its power play ranks #13, WPG's penalty kill and penalty habits #17). Holding it back: Stuart Skinner in goal -0.10 (a Mid goalie, grade 56, -2.7%). The model projects 6.26 total goals against a 6 line, with a 44% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 6.5 to 6, toward the under. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26.

CBJ#23 OFF / #26 DEF

2.71●

6.15

44%

7:00 PM ET
AVOID
6.5 o-111 → 6 o-110

J. Greaves ✓ Strong 82

1.79

0.40

-2.8%

0.53

–

+0.8%

+2.1%

CAR#1 OFF / #1 DEF

3.44●

P. Kochetkov ✓ Mid 58

2.49

0.73

-5.7%

0.53

–

-0.7%

-1.9%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CBJ	1.97#19 of 32	1.85#3 of 32	1.79goals	0.44#32 of 32	0.50#4 of 32	0.40goals
CAR	2.42#2 of 32	2.09#18 of 32	2.49goals	0.67#5 of 32	0.60#23 of 32	0.73goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Tonight	Player	If out	Tonight
CBJ	Zach Werenski D	-2.5%	Plays	Damon Severson D	+1.1%	Plays
	Adam Fantilli C	-2.5%	Plays	Kent Johnson C	+1.1%	Plays
	Kent Johnson C	-1.5%	Plays	Adam Fantilli C	+0.8%	Plays
	Charlie Coyle C	-1.4%	Plays	Zach Werenski D	+0.6%	Plays
	Sean Monahan C	-1.3%	Plays	Denton Mateychuk D	+0.5%	Plays
CAR	Sebastian Aho C	-4.6%	Plays	Jackson Blake R	+1.9%	Plays
	Andrei Svechnikov R	-4.0%	Plays	Shayne Gostisbehere D	+1.6%	Plays
	Nikolaj Ehlers L	-3.5%	Plays	Nikolaj Ehlers L	+1.5%	Plays
	Jackson Blake R	-2.8%	Plays	Sean Walker D	+1.5%	Plays
	Logan Stankoven C	-2.4%	Plays	Logan Stankoven C	+1.4%	Plays

Also out: CBJ: Dmitri Voronkov (scratch) -1.0% attack, +0.4% defense · CAR: Taylor Hall -1.2% attack, +0.7% defense; Jordan Staal -0.6% attack, +0.3% defense

How the projection moved today (6.49 → 6.15)

12:05 AM 6.49 first run
3:14 AM 6.22 -0.27CBJ goalie: Cam Talbot → Jet Greaves -0.19; CAR goalie: Brandon Bussi → Pyotr Kochetkov -0.09; Injuries / lineup: Isac Lundestrom (CBJ) out +0.01
6:44 AM 6.22 Line 6.5 o+108 → 6.5 o+110
11:23 AM 6.18 -0.04Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.03; CAR goalie Pyotr Kochetkov: rating updated -0.01; CAR goalie Pyotr Kochetkov: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o+110 → 6.5 o+108
12:17 PM 6.18 CBJ goalie Jet Greaves: Likely → Confirmed; CAR lineup: Ryan Henkel Oct 29 11:50 AM; Line 6.5 o+108 → 6 o-110
1:17 PM 6.15 -0.03Injuries / lineup: Dmitri Voronkov (CBJ) out, Danton Heinen (CBJ) back in -0.03; CBJ lineup: Projected Oct 29 12:19 PM; Line 6 o-110 → 6 o-122
2:17 PM 6.15 no change
3:19 PM 6.15 Line 6 o-122 → 6 o-124
4:20 PM 6.15 no change
4:49 PM 6.15 no change
6:20 PM 6.15 Line 6 o-124 → 6 o-110

AVOID: CBJ projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (CBJ 2.71). The 6.15 total looks high, but most of it comes from CAR; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, CBJ is trash (1.79) and CAR is great (2.49); on the power play, CBJ is trash (0.40) and CAR is great (0.73). CBJ faces Pyotr Kochetkov, a Mid goalie, grade 58 (-2.8%); CAR faces Jet Greaves, a Strong goalie, grade 82 (-5.7%). Other factors: injuries help CBJ 2.1%; injuries cost CAR 1.9%. CBJ 2.71: 0.43 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: injuries +0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.1%); team speed +0.02 (it skates faster than CAR, +0.8%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.25 (its attack ranks #19 of 32, CAR's defense #3); power play -0.18 (its power play ranks #32, CAR's penalty kill and penalty habits #4); Pyotr Kochetkov in goal -0.08 (a Mid goalie, grade 58, -2.8%). CAR 3.44: 0.30 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.45 (its attack ranks #2 of 32, CBJ's defense #18); power play +0.15 (its power play ranks #5, CBJ's penalty kill and penalty habits #23). Holding it back: Jet Greaves in goal -0.21 (a Strong goalie, grade 82, -5.7%); injuries -0.07 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.9%); team speed -0.02 (it skates slower than CBJ, -0.7%). The model projects 6.15 total goals against a 6 line, with a 44% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 6.5 to 6, toward the under. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26.

NYI#24 OFF / #17 DEF

2.84●

6.07

45%

8:00 PM ET
AVOID
5.5 o-125 → 5.5 o-121

I. Sorokin ✓ Strong 92

1.84

0.53

-4.0%

0.52

–

+2.9%

-0.9%

MIN#2 OFF / #3 DEF

3.23●

J. Wallstedt ✓ Good 70

2.24

0.78

-7.9%

0.54

–

-2.6%

+1.4%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NYI	1.98#18 of 32	1.89#6 of 32	1.84goals	0.53#23 of 32	0.56#13 of 32	0.53goals
MIN	2.11#10 of 32	2.16#24 of 32	2.24goals	0.68#4 of 32	0.64#26 of 32	0.78goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Tonight	Player	If out	Tonight
NYI	Bo Horvat C	-3.0%	Plays	Matthew Schaefer D	+1.1%	Plays
	Matthew Schaefer D	-2.2%	Plays	Emil Heineman L	+0.7%	Plays
	Mathew Barzal C	-1.5%	OUT · IR	Mathew Barzal C	+0.6%	OUT · IR
	Brayden Schenn C	-1.2%	Plays	Ondrej Palat L	+0.6%	Plays
	Simon Holmstrom R	-0.9%	Plays	Brayden Schenn C	+0.5%	Plays
MIN	Kirill Kaprizov L	-6.2%	Plays	Quinn Hughes D	+2.2%	Plays
	Matt Boldy L	-4.8%	Plays	Kirill Kaprizov L	+1.7%	Plays
	Joel Eriksson Ek C	-3.0%	Plays	Bobby Brink R	+1.2%	Plays
	Quinn Hughes D	-2.9%	Plays	Matt Boldy L	+1.2%	Plays
	Ryan Hartman R	-0.8%	Plays	Jared Spurgeon D	+0.9%	OUT

How the projection moved today (5.99 → 6.07)

12:05 AM 5.99 first run
3:14 AM 5.99 no change
6:44 AM 5.99 no change
11:23 AM 6.04 +0.05Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.07; MIN goalie Jesper Wallstedt: rating updated -0.02
12:17 PM 6.08 +0.04Injuries / lineup: Jared Spurgeon (MIN) out +0.04; Line 5.5 o-120 → 5.5 o-124
1:17 PM 6.08 NYI goalie Ilya Sorokin: Likely → Confirmed
2:17 PM 6.07 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Kyle MacLean (NYI) back in -0.01; NYI lineup: Andrew Gross Oct 29 1:47 PM; Line 5.5 o-124 → 5.5 o-125
3:19 PM 6.07 MIN lineup: Projected Oct 29 2:36 PM; Line 5.5 o-125 → 5.5 o-121
4:20 PM 6.07 Line 5.5 o-121 → 5.5 o-125
4:49 PM 6.07 Line 5.5 o-125 → 5.5 o-121
6:20 PM 6.07 MIN goalie Jesper Wallstedt: Likely → Confirmed

AVOID: NYI projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (NYI 2.84); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. The 6.07 total looks high, but most of it comes from MIN; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, NYI is bad (1.84) and MIN is great (2.24); on the power play, NYI is mid (0.53) and MIN is great (0.78). NYI faces Jesper Wallstedt, a Good goalie, grade 70 (-4.0%); MIN faces Ilya Sorokin, a Strong goalie, grade 92 (-7.9%). Other factors: NYI's team speed adds 2.9%; MIN's team speed costs 2.6%. NYI 2.84: 0.30 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: team speed +0.08 (it skates faster than MIN, +2.9%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.20 (its attack ranks #18 of 32, MIN's defense #6); Jesper Wallstedt in goal -0.11 (a Good goalie, grade 70, -4.0%); power play -0.04 (its power play ranks #23, MIN's penalty kill and penalty habits #13); injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.9%). MIN 3.23: 0.09 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: power play +0.20 (its power play ranks #4, NYI's penalty kill and penalty habits #26); 5-on-5 matchup +0.20 (its attack ranks #10 of 32, NYI's defense #24); injuries +0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.4%). Holding it back: Ilya Sorokin in goal -0.28 (a Strong goalie, grade 92, -7.9%); team speed -0.09 (it skates slower than NYI, -2.6%). The model projects 6.07 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26.

BOS#15 OFF / #12 DEF

3.19●

6.05

45%

8:00 PM ET
AVOID
5.5 o-125 → 5.5 o-128

J. Swayman ✓ Strong 89

2.29

0.53

-3.4%

0.53

–

-1.8%

+0.5%

STL#26 OFF / #13 DEF

2.87●

J. Hofer ✓ Good 64

2.01

0.49

-7.2%

0.53

–

+1.3%

+0.8%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
BOS	2.25#6 of 32	2.07#16 of 32	2.29goals	0.59#14 of 32	0.49#3 of 32	0.53goals
STL	1.95#21 of 32	2.10#19 of 32	2.01goals	0.47#28 of 32	0.57#15 of 32	0.49goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Tonight	Player	If out	Tonight
BOS	David Pastrnak R	-4.6%	Plays	David Pastrnak R	+0.8%	Plays
	Morgan Geekie C	-3.2%	Plays	Morgan Geekie C	+0.7%	Plays
	Pavel Zacha C	-2.5%	Plays	Mason Lohrei D	+0.7%	Plays
	Elias Lindholm C	-1.7%	Plays	Casey Mittelstadt C	+0.6%	Plays
	Casey Mittelstadt C	-1.1%	Plays	JJ Peterka R	+0.4%	Plays
STL	Robert Thomas C	-2.7%	Plays	Dylan Holloway L	+0.9%	Plays
	Dylan Holloway L	-2.1%	Plays	Jake Neighbours L	+0.7%	Plays
	Jimmy Snuggerud R	-2.0%	Plays	Dalibor Dvorsky R	+0.7%	Plays
	Pavel Buchnevich L	-1.3%	Plays	Jimmy Snuggerud R	+0.7%	Plays
	Jake Neighbours L	-1.1%	Plays	Cam Fowler D	+0.6%	Plays

How the projection moved today (6.09 → 6.05)

12:05 AM 6.09 first run
3:14 AM 6.09 no change
6:44 AM 6.09 Line 5.5 o-131 → 5.5 o-132
11:23 AM 6.05 -0.04Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.02; BOS goalie Jeremy Swayman: rating updated -0.01
12:17 PM 6.05 Line 5.5 o-132 → 5.5 o-131
1:17 PM 6.05 BOS goalie Jeremy Swayman: Likely → Confirmed; BOS lineup: Belle Fraser Oct 29 1:01 PM; STL goalie Joel Hofer: Likely → Confirmed
2:17 PM 6.05 STL lineup: Jeremy Rutherford Oct 29 1:46 PM
3:19 PM 6.05 no change
4:20 PM 6.05 no change
4:49 PM 6.05 no change
6:20 PM 6.05 Line 5.5 o-131 → 5.5 o-128

AVOID: STL projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (STL 2.87); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. The 6.05 total looks high, but most of it comes from BOS; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, BOS is great (2.29) and STL is mid (2.01); on the power play, BOS is bad (0.53) and STL is bad (0.49). BOS faces Joel Hofer, a Good goalie, grade 64 (-3.4%); STL faces Jeremy Swayman, a Strong goalie, grade 89 (-7.2%). BOS 3.19: 0.04 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.25 (its attack ranks #6 of 32, STL's defense #16); injuries +0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.5%). Holding it back: Joel Hofer in goal -0.11 (a Good goalie, grade 64, -3.4%); team speed -0.06 (it skates slower than STL, -1.8%); power play -0.05 (its power play ranks #14, STL's penalty kill and penalty habits #3). STL 2.87: 0.28 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: team speed +0.04 (it skates faster than BOS, +1.3%); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.8%). Holding it back: Jeremy Swayman in goal -0.22 (a Strong goalie, grade 89, -7.2%); power play -0.09 (its power play ranks #28, BOS's penalty kill and penalty habits #15); 5-on-5 matchup -0.03 (its attack ranks #21 of 32, BOS's defense #19). The model projects 6.05 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26.

CHI#32 OFF / #27 DEF

2.69●

5.95

43%

7:30 PM ET
AVOID ⚠ lineup
6.5 o+115 → 5.5 o-121

S. Knight ✓ Mid 56

1.64

0.51

-0.4%

0.52

–

-0.5%

+1.3%

DET#17 OFF / #11 DEF

3.26●

J. Gibson ✓ OK 28

2.18

0.66

-2.7%

0.53

–

+0.3%

-0.8%

⚠ Lineup change since 12:05 AM: Dylan Larkin now OUT (was Plays, seen 11:23 AM) · DET −3.5% · projection 6.25 → 5.95

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CHI	1.75#31 of 32	1.91#8 of 32	1.64goals	0.46#31 of 32	0.62#25 of 32	0.51goals
DET	1.88#25 of 32	2.36#31 of 32	2.18goals	0.66#6 of 32	0.55#12 of 32	0.66goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Tonight	Player	If out	Tonight
CHI	Tyler Bertuzzi L	-2.3%	Plays	Tyler Bertuzzi L	+0.4%	Plays
	Connor Bedard C	-2.0%	Plays	Andrew Mangiapane L	+0.4%	OUT · scratch
	Patrick Kane R	-1.2%	Plays	Patrick Kane R	+0.3%	Plays
	Frank Nazar C	-0.7%	Plays	Sam Rinzel D	+0.3%	Plays
	Ryan Donato C	-0.6%	Plays	Oliver Moore C	+0.3%	Plays
DET	Alex DeBrincat R	-5.3%	Plays	Moritz Seider D	+1.5%	Plays
	Lucas Raymond L	-3.8%	Plays	Lucas Raymond L	+1.4%	Plays
	⚠ Dylan Larkin C	-3.5%	OUT · IRwas Plays	Alex DeBrincat R	+1.3%	Plays
	Viktor Arvidsson L	-1.3%	Plays	Emmitt Finnie C	+0.8%	Plays
	Moritz Seider D	-1.1%	Plays	Michael Brandsegg-Nygård R	+0.7%	Plays

How the projection moved today (6.25 → 5.95)

12:05 AM 6.25 first run
3:14 AM 6.06 -0.19CHI goalie: Arvid Soderblom → Spencer Knight -0.19; Line 6 o-122 → 6 o-110
6:44 AM 6.06 Line 6 o-110 → 5.5 o-141
11:23 AM 6.17 +0.11CHI goalie: Spencer Knight → Arvid Soderblom +0.19; Injuries / lineup: Dylan Larkin (DET) out -0.10; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.02; DET goalie John Gibson: Likely → Confirmed; Line 5.5 o-141 → 6 o-125
12:17 PM 5.96 -0.20CHI goalie: Arvid Soderblom → Spencer Knight -0.20; Alex Vlasic (CHI) day-to-day; CHI lineup: Kalen Lumpkins Oct 29 11:54 AM; Line 6 o-125 → 5.5 o-130
1:17 PM 5.95 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Axel Sandin-Pellikka (DET) back in -0.01; DET lineup: Ansar Khan Oct 29 12:22 PM; Line 5.5 o-130 → 5.5 o-122
2:17 PM 5.95 no change
3:19 PM 5.95 Line 5.5 o-122 → 5.5 o-123
4:20 PM 5.95 Line 5.5 o-123 → 5.5 o-121
4:49 PM 5.95 no change
6:20 PM 5.95 no change

AVOID: CHI projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (CHI 2.69); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, CHI is trash (1.64) and DET is good (2.18); on the power play, CHI is bad (0.51) and DET is great (0.66). CHI faces John Gibson, an OK goalie, grade 28 (-0.4%); DET faces Spencer Knight, a Mid goalie, grade 56 (-2.7%). CHI 2.69: 0.45 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: injuries +0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.3%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.39 (its attack ranks #31 of 32, DET's defense #8); power play -0.07 (its power play ranks #31, DET's penalty kill and penalty habits #25); team speed -0.01 (it skates slower than DET, -0.5%); John Gibson in goal -0.01 (an OK goalie, grade 28, -0.4%). DET 3.26: 0.12 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.15 (its attack ranks #25 of 32, CHI's defense #31); power play +0.08 (its power play ranks #6, CHI's penalty kill and penalty habits #12). Holding it back: Spencer Knight in goal -0.09 (a Mid goalie, grade 56, -2.7%); injuries -0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.8%). The model projects 5.95 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 43% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 6.5 to 5.5, toward the under. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26.

MTL#16 OFF / #22 DEF

2.78●

5.90

43%

8:00 PM ET
AVOID
6.5 o+110 → 6 o-119

J. Dobes ✓ Good 61

1.90

0.51

-4.3%

0.52

–

+4.3%

-4.8%

DAL#22 OFF / #2 DEF

3.11●

J. Oettinger ✓ Good 73

1.97

0.75

-3.1%

0.53

–

-4.4%

+3.4%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
MTL	2.13#9 of 32	1.81#1 of 32	1.90goals	0.47#27 of 32	0.59#19 of 32	0.51goals
DAL	1.93#23 of 32	2.07#17 of 32	1.97goals	0.60#12 of 32	0.69#30 of 32	0.75goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Tonight	Player	If out	Tonight
MTL	Cole Caufield R	-5.1%	Plays	Lane Hutson D	+1.9%	Plays
	Nick Suzuki C	-4.5%	OUT	Zachary Bolduc R	+1.2%	Plays
	Juraj Slafkovský L	-3.2%	Plays	Cole Caufield R	+1.2%	Plays
	Lane Hutson D	-2.3%	Plays	Nick Suzuki C	+1.0%	OUT
	Ivan Demidov R	-1.5%	OUT · IR	Juraj Slafkovský L	+0.7%	Plays
DAL	Jason Robertson L	-5.5%	Plays	Jason Robertson L	+1.6%	Plays
	Wyatt Johnston C	-4.2%	Plays	Miro Heiskanen D	+1.4%	Plays
	Mikko Rantanen R	-4.1%	Plays	Mikko Rantanen R	+1.2%	Plays
	Roope Hintz C	-2.7%	Plays	Thomas Harley D	+1.1%	Plays
	Miro Heiskanen D	-1.6%	Plays	Nils Lundkvist D	+1.1%	Plays

Also out: DAL: Matt Duchene -1.2% attack, +0.2% defense

How the projection moved today (5.94 → 5.90)

12:05 AM 5.94 first run
3:14 AM 5.94 Line 6 o-124 → 6 o-110
6:44 AM 5.94 Line 6 o-110 → 6.5 o+113
11:23 AM 5.91 -0.03Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.03; Line 6.5 o+113 → 5.5 o-137
12:17 PM 5.90 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Sam Steel (DAL) back in -0.01; DAL goalie Jake Oettinger: Likely → Confirmed; Sam Steel (DAL) day-to-day; DAL lineup: Robert Tiffin Oct 29 11:52 AM; Line 5.5 o-137 → 6 o-110
1:17 PM 5.90 Sam Steel (DAL) off day-to-day
2:17 PM 5.90 no change
3:19 PM 5.90 no change
4:20 PM 5.90 Line 6 o-110 → 6 o-122
4:49 PM 5.90 Line 6 o-122 → 6 o-119
6:20 PM 5.90 no change

AVOID: MTL projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (MTL 2.78). At 5-on-5, MTL is bad (1.90) and DAL is mid (1.97); on the power play, MTL is bad (0.51) and DAL is great (0.75). MTL faces Jake Oettinger, a Good goalie, grade 73 (-4.3%); DAL faces Jakub Dobes, a Good goalie, grade 61 (-3.1%). Other factors: MTL's team speed adds 4.3%; injuries cost MTL 4.8%; DAL's team speed costs 4.4%; injuries help DAL 3.4%. MTL 2.78: 0.36 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: team speed +0.12 (it skates faster than DAL, +4.3%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.14 (its attack ranks #9 of 32, DAL's defense #1); injuries -0.14 (missing players on both teams, net, -4.8%); Jake Oettinger in goal -0.12 (a Good goalie, grade 73, -4.3%); power play -0.07 (its power play ranks #27, DAL's penalty kill and penalty habits #19). DAL 3.11: 0.03 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: power play +0.17 (its power play ranks #12, MTL's penalty kill and penalty habits #30); injuries +0.10 (missing players on both teams, net, +3.4%). Holding it back: team speed -0.14 (it skates slower than MTL, -4.4%); Jakub Dobes in goal -0.10 (a Good goalie, grade 61, -3.1%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.07 (its attack ranks #23 of 32, MTL's defense #17). The model projects 5.90 total goals against a 6 line, with a 43% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 6.5 to 6, toward the under. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26.

OTT#13 OFF / #8 DEF

3.18●

5.85

42%

10:00 PM ET
AVOID
5.5 o-125 → 5.5 o-127

J. Johansson ✓ Trash 3

1.97

0.67

-2.0%

0.52

–

+1.6%

+0.9%

LAK#27 OFF / #16 DEF

2.68●

D. Kuemper ✓ Mid 48

1.65

0.46

+4.0%

0.52

–

-1.5%

-0.7%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
OTT	2.05#16 of 32	1.96#12 of 32	1.97goals	0.64#8 of 32	0.57#16 of 32	0.67goals
LAK	1.81#27 of 32	1.85#4 of 32	1.65goals	0.47#30 of 32	0.54#10 of 32	0.46goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Tonight	Player	If out	Tonight
OTT	Tim Stützle C	-4.2%	Plays	Jordan Spence D	+2.1%	Plays
	Drake Batherson R	-3.6%	Plays	Drake Batherson R	+1.5%	Plays
	Dylan Cozens C	-2.3%	Plays	Dylan Cozens C	+1.3%	Plays
	Shane Pinto C	-1.6%	Plays	Tim Stützle C	+1.2%	Plays
	Claude Giroux R	-1.4%	Plays	Tyler Kleven D	+1.1%	Plays
LAK	Artemi Panarin L	-4.1%	Plays	Brandt Clarke D	+1.7%	Plays
	Adrian Kempe R	-3.4%	Plays	Artemi Panarin L	+1.1%	Plays
	Quinton Byfield R	-1.3%	Plays	Adrian Kempe R	+1.1%	Plays
	Kevin Fiala L	-1.0%	OUT · IR	Alex Laferriere R	+0.9%	Plays
	Alex Laferriere R	-0.9%	Plays	Drew Doughty D	+0.8%	Plays

How the projection moved today (5.98 → 5.85)

12:05 AM 5.98 first run
3:14 AM 5.98 no change
6:44 AM 5.98 Line 5.5 o-125 → 5.5 o-126
11:23 AM 5.96 -0.02Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.02; Line 5.5 o-126 → 5.5 o-129
12:17 PM 5.96 Line 5.5 o-129 → 5.5 o-128
1:17 PM 5.96 no change
2:17 PM 5.96 Injuries / lineup: Nikolas Matinpalo (OTT) out, Thomas Chabot (OTT) back in -0.00; Thomas Chabot (OTT) day-to-day; OTT lineup: Projected Oct 29 1:40 PM; LAK lineup: Projected Oct 29 1:42 PM
3:19 PM 5.85 -0.11OTT goalie: Samuel Ersson → Jonas Johansson -0.09; Injuries / lineup: Warren Foegele (OTT) out, Nikolas Matinpalo (OTT) back in, Corey Perry (LAK) back in, Drew Doughty (LAK) back in -0.02; Thomas Chabot (OTT) off day-to-day; OTT lineup: Jackson Starr Oct 29 2:37 PM; LAK goalie Darcy Kuemper: Likely → Confirmed; Line 5.5 o-128 → 5.5 o-127
4:20 PM 5.85 no change
4:49 PM 5.85 no change
6:20 PM 5.85 no change

AVOID: LAK projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (LAK 2.68); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, OTT is mid (1.97) and LAK is trash (1.65); on the power play, OTT is great (0.67) and LAK is trash (0.46). OTT faces Darcy Kuemper, a Mid goalie, grade 48 (-2.0%); LAK faces Jonas Johansson, a Trash goalie, grade 3 (+4.0%). OTT 3.18: 0.04 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: power play +0.09 (its power play ranks #8, LAK's penalty kill and penalty habits #16); team speed +0.05 (it skates faster than LAK, +1.6%); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.9%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.07 (its attack ranks #16 of 32, LAK's defense #12); Darcy Kuemper in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 48, -2.0%). LAK 2.68: 0.46 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: Jonas Johansson in goal +0.11 (a Trash goalie, grade 3, +4.0%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.39 (its attack ranks #27 of 32, OTT's defense #4); power play -0.12 (its power play ranks #30, OTT's penalty kill and penalty habits #10); team speed -0.04 (it skates slower than OTT, -1.5%); injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.7%). The model projects 5.85 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 42% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26.

7:00 PM ET🔨 SLAM ⚠ lineup

6.5 o-116 → 6.5 o-135

UTA#5 OFF / #9 DEF3.76●

K. Vejmelka Likely OK 31

PIT#10 OFF / #24 DEF3.11●

A. Silovs ✓ Trash 4

Proj total 6.87 · P(7+) 53%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
UTA	2.30	0.67	+3.8%	0.52	–	+3.7%	+0.1%
PIT	2.11	0.61	-0.7%	0.53	–	-3.5%	-0.1%

Why this call

⚠ Lineup change since 12:05 AM: Evgeni Malkin now Game-time (was Day-to-day, seen 12:17 PM) · PIT ±2.6% · projection 6.93 → 6.87

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
UTA	2.21#7 of 32	2.12#21 of 32	2.30goals
PIT	2.27#5 of 32	1.89#7 of 32	2.11goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
UTA	0.71#3 of 32	0.53#6 of 32	0.67goals
PIT	0.56#19 of 32	0.60#21 of 32	0.61goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Tonight
UTA
Dylan Guenther R	-4.0%	Plays
Clayton Keller R	-3.9%	Plays
Nick Schmaltz C	-3.4%	Plays
Logan Cooley C	-2.7%	Plays
Mikhail Sergachev D	-1.6%	Plays
PIT
Sidney Crosby C	-3.7%	Plays
Rickard Rakell R	-2.9%	Plays
⚠ Evgeni Malkin C	-2.6%	Game-timewas Day-to-day
Bryan Rust R	-2.5%	OUT · IR
Erik Karlsson D	-1.9%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Tonight
UTA
Clayton Keller R	+1.6%	Plays
Nate Schmidt D	+1.4%	Plays
Barrett Hayton C	+1.1%	Plays
Dylan Guenther R	+1.0%	Plays
Nick Schmaltz C	+0.9%	Plays
PIT
Tommy Novak C	+0.9%	Plays
Ben Kindel C	+0.8%	Game-time
Samuel Girard D	+0.7%	Game-time
Kaedan Korczak D	+0.7%	Plays
Ville Koivunen R	+0.5%	Plays

Also out: UTA: John Marino +0.2% attack, +0.8% defense; Michael Carcone -0.5% attack, +0.6% defense

How the projection moved today (6.93 → 6.87)

12:05 AM 6.93 first run
3:14 AM 6.94 +0.01PIT goalie: Sergei Murashov → Arturs Silovs +0.07; UTA goalie: Sebastian Cossa → Karel Vejmelka -0.06
6:44 AM 6.94 Line 6.5 o-136 → 6.5 o-141
11:23 AM 6.90 -0.04Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.04; PIT goalie Arturs Silovs: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-141 → 6.5 o-134
12:17 PM 6.90 Injuries / lineup: Ben Kindel (PIT) back in +0.00; Ben Kindel (PIT) day-to-day
1:17 PM 6.90 Line 6.5 o-134 → 6.5 o-132
2:17 PM 6.91 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Nick DeSimone (UTA) out +0.01; UTA lineup: Projected Oct 29 1:36 PM; Line 6.5 o-132 → 6.5 o-133
3:19 PM 6.87 -0.04Injuries / lineup: Samuel Girard (PIT) back in -0.04; Samuel Girard (PIT) day-to-day
4:20 PM 6.87 Line 6.5 o-133 → 6.5 o-135
4:49 PM 6.87 no change
6:20 PM 6.87 no change

10:00 PM ETPASS

6.5 o-116 → 6.5 o-130

VAN#30 OFF / #32 DEF3.32●

L. Merilainen ✓ Trash 6

SJS#21 OFF / #31 DEF3.48●

Y. Askarov ✓ Trash 11

Proj total 6.79 · P(7+) 54%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
VAN	2.00	0.74	+1.9%	0.52	–	-0.4%	+0.2%
SJS	2.11	0.79	+2.8%	0.52	–	+0.1%	-1.3%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
VAN	1.79#28 of 32	2.28#30 of 32	2.00goals
SJS	1.77#30 of 32	2.42#32 of 32	2.11goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
VAN	0.57#17 of 32	0.71#32 of 32	0.74goals
SJS	0.62#10 of 32	0.70#31 of 32	0.79goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Tonight
VAN
Brock Boeser R	-1.9%	Plays
Elias Pettersson C	-1.8%	Plays
Jake DeBrusk L	-1.8%	Plays
Marco Rossi C	-1.1%	Plays
Linus Karlsson C	-1.0%	Plays
SJS
Macklin Celebrini C	-5.0%	Plays
Will Smith C	-2.4%	Plays
Tyler Toffoli C	-2.0%	Plays
Kiefer Sherwood L	-0.9%	Plays
Alexander Wennberg C	-0.8%	OUT · IR

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Tonight
VAN
Linus Karlsson C	+0.7%	Plays
Jake DeBrusk L	+0.5%	Plays
Tom Willander D	+0.5%	Plays
Marco Rossi C	+0.5%	Plays
Zeev Buium D	+0.4%	Plays
SJS
Macklin Celebrini C	+0.7%	Plays
Tyler Toffoli C	+0.6%	Plays
Will Smith C	+0.6%	Plays
Dmitry Orlov D	+0.5%	Plays
Mason Marchment L	+0.4%	Plays

Also out: SJS: Igor Chernyshov -0.7% attack, +0.4% defense

How the projection moved today (6.73 → 6.79)

12:05 AM 6.73 first run
3:14 AM 6.73 Line 6.5 o-134 → 6.5 o-135
6:44 AM 6.73 no change
11:23 AM 6.82 +0.09SJS goalie: Alex Nedeljkovic → Yaroslav Askarov +0.08; VAN goalie Leevi Merilainen: rating updated +0.03; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.03; Line 6.5 o-135 → 6.5 o-130
12:17 PM 6.79 -0.02SJS goalie Yaroslav Askarov: rating updated -0.02; Line 6.5 o-130 → 6.5 o-127
1:17 PM 6.79 Line 6.5 o-127 → 6.5 o-126
2:17 PM 6.79 SJS goalie Yaroslav Askarov: Likely → Confirmed
3:19 PM 6.79 VAN goalie Leevi Merilainen: Likely → Confirmed; VAN lineup: Dan Murphy Oct 29 2:37 PM; Line 6.5 o-126 → 6.5 o-130
4:20 PM 6.79 Line 6.5 o-130 → 6.5 o-129
4:49 PM 6.79 no change
6:20 PM 6.79 Line 6.5 o-129 → 6.5 o-130

8:00 PM ET1U

5.5 o-141 → 6.5 o-105

WSH#8 OFF / #23 DEF3.35●

C. Lindgren Likely OK 21

NSH#14 OFF / #20 DEF3.36●

J. Saros ✓ Mid 42

Proj total 6.71 · P(7+) 54%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
WSH	2.52	0.50	-1.5%	0.53	-8.0%	+3.5%	+0.6%
NSH	1.95	0.76	+0.3%	0.52	+6.5%	-3.6%	+0.9%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
WSH	2.34#4 of 32	2.19#28 of 32	2.52goals
NSH	1.85#26 of 32	2.15#22 of 32	1.95goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
WSH	0.52#24 of 32	0.54#9 of 32	0.50goals
NSH	0.63#9 of 32	0.67#29 of 32	0.76goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Tonight
WSH
Alex Ovechkin L	-3.4%	Plays
Dylan Strome C	-3.1%	Plays
Tom Wilson R	-3.0%	Plays
Jakob Chychrun D	-2.5%	Plays
Aliaksei Protas L	-1.7%	Plays
NSH
Filip Forsberg L	-4.3%	Plays
Steven Stamkos C	-4.1%	Plays
Ryan O'Reilly C	-3.3%	Plays
Roman Josi D	-1.6%	Plays
Jonathan Marchessault R	-1.3%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Tonight
WSH
Jakob Chychrun D	+1.1%	Plays
Justin Sourdif C	+0.7%	Plays
Dylan Strome C	+0.6%	Plays
Ryan Leonard R	+0.6%	Plays
Alex Ovechkin L	+0.5%	Plays
NSH
Filip Forsberg L	+0.7%	Plays
Steven Stamkos C	+0.6%	Plays
Adam Wilsby D	+0.5%	Plays
Ross Colton C	+0.5%	Plays
Roman Josi D	+0.4%	Plays

How the projection moved today (6.37 → 6.71)

12:05 AM 6.37 first run
3:14 AM 6.64 +0.27WSH goalie: Logan Thompson → Charlie Lindgren +0.27
6:44 AM 6.64 Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o-102
11:23 AM 6.71 +0.07Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.08; WSH lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-28); Line 6.5 o-102 → 6.5 o-105
12:17 PM 6.71 NSH goalie Juuse Saros: Likely → Confirmed; NSH lineup: Max Herz Oct 29 11:54 AM; Line 6.5 o-105 → 6.5 o-104
1:17 PM 6.71 Line 6.5 o-104 → 6.5 o-105
2:17 PM 6.71 no change
3:19 PM 6.71 no change
4:20 PM 6.71 no change
4:49 PM 6.71 no change
6:20 PM 6.71 no change

10:00 PM ET🔨 SLAM

6.5 o-116 → 6.5 o-125

BUF#18 OFF / #18 DEF3.50●

C. Ellis ✓ Mid 46

ANA#12 OFF / #30 DEF3.15●

L. Dostal Likely OK 30

Proj total 6.65 · P(7+) 52%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
BUF	2.32	0.62	-0.6%	0.52	–	+1.6%	+0.3%
ANA	2.10	0.62	-1.8%	0.53	–	-1.0%	-0.3%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
BUF	2.10#11 of 32	2.24#29 of 32	2.32goals
ANA	2.08#14 of 32	2.05#15 of 32	2.10goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
BUF	0.51#26 of 32	0.66#27 of 32	0.62goals
ANA	0.57#17 of 32	0.60#22 of 32	0.62goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Tonight
BUF
Tage Thompson C	-4.5%	Plays
Jack Quinn R	-2.2%	Plays
Rasmus Dahlin D	-2.2%	Plays
Josh Doan R	-1.8%	Plays
Jason Zucker L	-1.6%	Plays
ANA
Leo Carlsson C	-3.2%	Plays
Beckett Sennecke R	-3.1%	Plays
Cutter Gauthier L	-3.0%	Plays
Mikael Granlund C	-1.9%	Plays
Jackson LaCombe D	-1.3%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Tonight
BUF
Rasmus Dahlin D	+1.3%	Plays
Noah Ostlund C	+1.2%	Plays
Zach Benson L	+1.1%	Plays
Josh Doan R	+1.0%	Plays
Tage Thompson C	+0.8%	Plays
ANA
Leo Carlsson C	+0.6%	Plays
Beckett Sennecke R	+0.5%	Plays
Cutter Gauthier L	+0.4%	Plays
Ian Moore D	+0.3%	OUT · IR
Tyson Hinds D	+0.3%	Plays

Also out: ANA: Troy Terry -1.2% attack, +0.2% defense

How the projection moved today (6.66 → 6.65)

12:05 AM 6.66 first run
3:14 AM 6.67 +0.01BUF goalie: Colten Ellis → Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen +0.01
6:44 AM 6.67 no change
11:23 AM 6.66 -0.01BUF goalie: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen → Colten Ellis -0.05; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.03; ANA goalie Lukas Dostal: rating updated +0.01
12:17 PM 6.66 no change
1:17 PM 6.66 no change
2:17 PM 6.66 no change
3:19 PM 6.66 BUF goalie Colten Ellis: Likely → Confirmed; BUF lineup: Paul Hamilton Oct 29 3:05 PM
4:20 PM 6.65 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Sam Carrick (BUF) back in -0.01
4:49 PM 6.65 no change
6:20 PM 6.65 ANA lineup: Derek Lee Oct 29 6:18 PM

7:00 PM ETAVOID ⚠ lineup

6.5 o+105 → 6 o-110

WPG#25 OFF / #19 DEF2.59●

S. Skinner ✓ Mid 56

TBL#4 OFF / #7 DEF3.67●

A. Vasilevskiy ✓ Strong 91

Proj total 6.26 · P(7+) 44%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
WPG	1.78	0.55	-7.8%	0.53	–	-2.1%	+0.1%
TBL	2.44	0.63	-2.7%	0.52	–	+1.8%	+3.4%

Why this call

⚠ Lineup change since 12:05 AM: Brandon Hagel now Plays (was Day-to-day, seen 12:17 PM) · TBL +5.1% · projection 6.42 → 6.26

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
WPG	1.90#24 of 32	1.91#9 of 32	1.78goals
TBL	2.36#3 of 32	2.10#20 of 32	2.44goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
WPG	0.54#21 of 32	0.56#14 of 32	0.55goals
TBL	0.60#13 of 32	0.58#17 of 32	0.63goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Tonight
WPG
Kyle Connor L	-4.9%	Plays
Mark Scheifele C	-4.5%	Plays
Gabriel Vilardi C	-2.8%	Plays
Cole Perfetti C	-1.6%	Plays
Josh Morrissey D	-1.0%	OUT · IR
TBL
Nikita Kucherov R	-7.3%	Plays
Jake Guentzel C	-5.2%	Plays
⚠ Brandon Hagel L	-5.1%	Playswas Day-to-day
Brayden Point C	-3.6%	Plays
Anthony Cirelli C	-2.7%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Tonight
WPG
Cole Perfetti C	+1.4%	Plays
Josh Morrissey D	+0.8%	OUT · IR
Nino Niederreiter R	+0.7%	OUT · scratch
Alex Iafallo L	+0.7%	Plays
Gabriel Vilardi C	+0.6%	Plays
TBL
Gage Goncalves C	+1.3%	Plays
Pontus Holmberg R	+1.1%	Plays
Nikita Kucherov R	+1.0%	Plays
Jake Guentzel C	+0.9%	Plays
Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	+0.9%	Plays

How the projection moved today (6.42 → 6.26)

12:05 AM 6.42 first run
3:14 AM 6.30 -0.12WPG goalie: Nico Daws → Stuart Skinner -0.12; Line 5.5 o-139 → 6 o-115
6:44 AM 6.30 Line 6 o-115 → 6 o-110
11:23 AM 6.26 -0.03Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.03; TBL goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy: Likely → Confirmed
12:17 PM 6.26 WPG goalie Stuart Skinner: Likely → Confirmed; WPG lineup: Mike McIntyre Oct 29 11:55 AM; Brandon Hagel (TBL) off day-to-day; Victor Hedman (TBL) off day-to-day; TBL lineup: Benjamin Pierce Oct 29 11:51 AM
1:17 PM 6.26 Line 6 o-110 → 6 o-127
2:17 PM 6.26 no change
3:19 PM 6.26 WPG lineup: @NHLJets Oct 29 2:34 PM; Line 6 o-127 → 6 o-110
4:20 PM 6.26 no change
4:49 PM 6.26 no change
6:20 PM 6.26 no change

7:00 PM ETAVOID

6.5 o-111 → 6 o-110

CBJ#23 OFF / #26 DEF2.71●

J. Greaves ✓ Strong 82

CAR#1 OFF / #1 DEF3.44●

P. Kochetkov ✓ Mid 58

Proj total 6.15 · P(7+) 44%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
CBJ	1.79	0.40	-2.8%	0.53	–	+0.8%	+2.1%
CAR	2.49	0.73	-5.7%	0.53	–	-0.7%	-1.9%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CBJ	1.97#19 of 32	1.85#3 of 32	1.79goals
CAR	2.42#2 of 32	2.09#18 of 32	2.49goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CBJ	0.44#32 of 32	0.50#4 of 32	0.40goals
CAR	0.67#5 of 32	0.60#23 of 32	0.73goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Tonight
CBJ
Zach Werenski D	-2.5%	Plays
Adam Fantilli C	-2.5%	Plays
Kent Johnson C	-1.5%	Plays
Charlie Coyle C	-1.4%	Plays
Sean Monahan C	-1.3%	Plays
CAR
Sebastian Aho C	-4.6%	Plays
Andrei Svechnikov R	-4.0%	Plays
Nikolaj Ehlers L	-3.5%	Plays
Jackson Blake R	-2.8%	Plays
Logan Stankoven C	-2.4%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Tonight
CBJ
Damon Severson D	+1.1%	Plays
Kent Johnson C	+1.1%	Plays
Adam Fantilli C	+0.8%	Plays
Zach Werenski D	+0.6%	Plays
Denton Mateychuk D	+0.5%	Plays
CAR
Jackson Blake R	+1.9%	Plays
Shayne Gostisbehere D	+1.6%	Plays
Nikolaj Ehlers L	+1.5%	Plays
Sean Walker D	+1.5%	Plays
Logan Stankoven C	+1.4%	Plays

Also out: CBJ: Dmitri Voronkov (scratch) -1.0% attack, +0.4% defense · CAR: Taylor Hall -1.2% attack, +0.7% defense; Jordan Staal -0.6% attack, +0.3% defense

How the projection moved today (6.49 → 6.15)

12:05 AM 6.49 first run
3:14 AM 6.22 -0.27CBJ goalie: Cam Talbot → Jet Greaves -0.19; CAR goalie: Brandon Bussi → Pyotr Kochetkov -0.09; Injuries / lineup: Isac Lundestrom (CBJ) out +0.01
6:44 AM 6.22 Line 6.5 o+108 → 6.5 o+110
11:23 AM 6.18 -0.04Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.03; CAR goalie Pyotr Kochetkov: rating updated -0.01; CAR goalie Pyotr Kochetkov: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o+110 → 6.5 o+108
12:17 PM 6.18 CBJ goalie Jet Greaves: Likely → Confirmed; CAR lineup: Ryan Henkel Oct 29 11:50 AM; Line 6.5 o+108 → 6 o-110
1:17 PM 6.15 -0.03Injuries / lineup: Dmitri Voronkov (CBJ) out, Danton Heinen (CBJ) back in -0.03; CBJ lineup: Projected Oct 29 12:19 PM; Line 6 o-110 → 6 o-122
2:17 PM 6.15 no change
3:19 PM 6.15 Line 6 o-122 → 6 o-124
4:20 PM 6.15 no change
4:49 PM 6.15 no change
6:20 PM 6.15 Line 6 o-124 → 6 o-110

8:00 PM ETAVOID

5.5 o-125 → 5.5 o-121

NYI#24 OFF / #17 DEF2.84●

I. Sorokin ✓ Strong 92

MIN#2 OFF / #3 DEF3.23●

J. Wallstedt ✓ Good 70

Proj total 6.07 · P(7+) 45%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
NYI	1.84	0.53	-4.0%	0.52	–	+2.9%	-0.9%
MIN	2.24	0.78	-7.9%	0.54	–	-2.6%	+1.4%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NYI	1.98#18 of 32	1.89#6 of 32	1.84goals
MIN	2.11#10 of 32	2.16#24 of 32	2.24goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NYI	0.53#23 of 32	0.56#13 of 32	0.53goals
MIN	0.68#4 of 32	0.64#26 of 32	0.78goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Tonight
NYI
Bo Horvat C	-3.0%	Plays
Matthew Schaefer D	-2.2%	Plays
Mathew Barzal C	-1.5%	OUT · IR
Brayden Schenn C	-1.2%	Plays
Simon Holmstrom R	-0.9%	Plays
MIN
Kirill Kaprizov L	-6.2%	Plays
Matt Boldy L	-4.8%	Plays
Joel Eriksson Ek C	-3.0%	Plays
Quinn Hughes D	-2.9%	Plays
Ryan Hartman R	-0.8%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Tonight
NYI
Matthew Schaefer D	+1.1%	Plays
Emil Heineman L	+0.7%	Plays
Mathew Barzal C	+0.6%	OUT · IR
Ondrej Palat L	+0.6%	Plays
Brayden Schenn C	+0.5%	Plays
MIN
Quinn Hughes D	+2.2%	Plays
Kirill Kaprizov L	+1.7%	Plays
Bobby Brink R	+1.2%	Plays
Matt Boldy L	+1.2%	Plays
Jared Spurgeon D	+0.9%	OUT

How the projection moved today (5.99 → 6.07)

12:05 AM 5.99 first run
3:14 AM 5.99 no change
6:44 AM 5.99 no change
11:23 AM 6.04 +0.05Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.07; MIN goalie Jesper Wallstedt: rating updated -0.02
12:17 PM 6.08 +0.04Injuries / lineup: Jared Spurgeon (MIN) out +0.04; Line 5.5 o-120 → 5.5 o-124
1:17 PM 6.08 NYI goalie Ilya Sorokin: Likely → Confirmed
2:17 PM 6.07 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Kyle MacLean (NYI) back in -0.01; NYI lineup: Andrew Gross Oct 29 1:47 PM; Line 5.5 o-124 → 5.5 o-125
3:19 PM 6.07 MIN lineup: Projected Oct 29 2:36 PM; Line 5.5 o-125 → 5.5 o-121
4:20 PM 6.07 Line 5.5 o-121 → 5.5 o-125
4:49 PM 6.07 Line 5.5 o-125 → 5.5 o-121
6:20 PM 6.07 MIN goalie Jesper Wallstedt: Likely → Confirmed

8:00 PM ETAVOID

5.5 o-125 → 5.5 o-128

BOS#15 OFF / #12 DEF3.19●

J. Swayman ✓ Strong 89

STL#26 OFF / #13 DEF2.87●

J. Hofer ✓ Good 64

Proj total 6.05 · P(7+) 45%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
BOS	2.29	0.53	-3.4%	0.53	–	-1.8%	+0.5%
STL	2.01	0.49	-7.2%	0.53	–	+1.3%	+0.8%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
BOS	2.25#6 of 32	2.07#16 of 32	2.29goals
STL	1.95#21 of 32	2.10#19 of 32	2.01goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
BOS	0.59#14 of 32	0.49#3 of 32	0.53goals
STL	0.47#28 of 32	0.57#15 of 32	0.49goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Tonight
BOS
David Pastrnak R	-4.6%	Plays
Morgan Geekie C	-3.2%	Plays
Pavel Zacha C	-2.5%	Plays
Elias Lindholm C	-1.7%	Plays
Casey Mittelstadt C	-1.1%	Plays
STL
Robert Thomas C	-2.7%	Plays
Dylan Holloway L	-2.1%	Plays
Jimmy Snuggerud R	-2.0%	Plays
Pavel Buchnevich L	-1.3%	Plays
Jake Neighbours L	-1.1%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Tonight
BOS
David Pastrnak R	+0.8%	Plays
Morgan Geekie C	+0.7%	Plays
Mason Lohrei D	+0.7%	Plays
Casey Mittelstadt C	+0.6%	Plays
JJ Peterka R	+0.4%	Plays
STL
Dylan Holloway L	+0.9%	Plays
Jake Neighbours L	+0.7%	Plays
Dalibor Dvorsky R	+0.7%	Plays
Jimmy Snuggerud R	+0.7%	Plays
Cam Fowler D	+0.6%	Plays

How the projection moved today (6.09 → 6.05)

12:05 AM 6.09 first run
3:14 AM 6.09 no change
6:44 AM 6.09 Line 5.5 o-131 → 5.5 o-132
11:23 AM 6.05 -0.04Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.02; BOS goalie Jeremy Swayman: rating updated -0.01
12:17 PM 6.05 Line 5.5 o-132 → 5.5 o-131
1:17 PM 6.05 BOS goalie Jeremy Swayman: Likely → Confirmed; BOS lineup: Belle Fraser Oct 29 1:01 PM; STL goalie Joel Hofer: Likely → Confirmed
2:17 PM 6.05 STL lineup: Jeremy Rutherford Oct 29 1:46 PM
3:19 PM 6.05 no change
4:20 PM 6.05 no change
4:49 PM 6.05 no change
6:20 PM 6.05 Line 5.5 o-131 → 5.5 o-128

7:30 PM ETAVOID ⚠ lineup

6.5 o+115 → 5.5 o-121

CHI#32 OFF / #27 DEF2.69●

S. Knight ✓ Mid 56

DET#17 OFF / #11 DEF3.26●

J. Gibson ✓ OK 28

Proj total 5.95 · P(7+) 43%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
CHI	1.64	0.51	-0.4%	0.52	–	-0.5%	+1.3%
DET	2.18	0.66	-2.7%	0.53	–	+0.3%	-0.8%

Why this call

⚠ Lineup change since 12:05 AM: Dylan Larkin now OUT (was Plays, seen 11:23 AM) · DET −3.5% · projection 6.25 → 5.95

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CHI	1.75#31 of 32	1.91#8 of 32	1.64goals
DET	1.88#25 of 32	2.36#31 of 32	2.18goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CHI	0.46#31 of 32	0.62#25 of 32	0.51goals
DET	0.66#6 of 32	0.55#12 of 32	0.66goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Tonight
CHI
Tyler Bertuzzi L	-2.3%	Plays
Connor Bedard C	-2.0%	Plays
Patrick Kane R	-1.2%	Plays
Frank Nazar C	-0.7%	Plays
Ryan Donato C	-0.6%	Plays
DET
Alex DeBrincat R	-5.3%	Plays
Lucas Raymond L	-3.8%	Plays
⚠ Dylan Larkin C	-3.5%	OUT · IRwas Plays
Viktor Arvidsson L	-1.3%	Plays
Moritz Seider D	-1.1%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Tonight
CHI
Tyler Bertuzzi L	+0.4%	Plays
Andrew Mangiapane L	+0.4%	OUT · scratch
Patrick Kane R	+0.3%	Plays
Sam Rinzel D	+0.3%	Plays
Oliver Moore C	+0.3%	Plays
DET
Moritz Seider D	+1.5%	Plays
Lucas Raymond L	+1.4%	Plays
Alex DeBrincat R	+1.3%	Plays
Emmitt Finnie C	+0.8%	Plays
Michael Brandsegg-Nygård R	+0.7%	Plays

How the projection moved today (6.25 → 5.95)

12:05 AM 6.25 first run
3:14 AM 6.06 -0.19CHI goalie: Arvid Soderblom → Spencer Knight -0.19; Line 6 o-122 → 6 o-110
6:44 AM 6.06 Line 6 o-110 → 5.5 o-141
11:23 AM 6.17 +0.11CHI goalie: Spencer Knight → Arvid Soderblom +0.19; Injuries / lineup: Dylan Larkin (DET) out -0.10; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.02; DET goalie John Gibson: Likely → Confirmed; Line 5.5 o-141 → 6 o-125
12:17 PM 5.96 -0.20CHI goalie: Arvid Soderblom → Spencer Knight -0.20; Alex Vlasic (CHI) day-to-day; CHI lineup: Kalen Lumpkins Oct 29 11:54 AM; Line 6 o-125 → 5.5 o-130
1:17 PM 5.95 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Axel Sandin-Pellikka (DET) back in -0.01; DET lineup: Ansar Khan Oct 29 12:22 PM; Line 5.5 o-130 → 5.5 o-122
2:17 PM 5.95 no change
3:19 PM 5.95 Line 5.5 o-122 → 5.5 o-123
4:20 PM 5.95 Line 5.5 o-123 → 5.5 o-121
4:49 PM 5.95 no change
6:20 PM 5.95 no change

8:00 PM ETAVOID

6.5 o+110 → 6 o-119

MTL#16 OFF / #22 DEF2.78●

J. Dobes ✓ Good 61

DAL#22 OFF / #2 DEF3.11●

J. Oettinger ✓ Good 73

Proj total 5.90 · P(7+) 43%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
MTL	1.90	0.51	-4.3%	0.52	–	+4.3%	-4.8%
DAL	1.97	0.75	-3.1%	0.53	–	-4.4%	+3.4%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
MTL	2.13#9 of 32	1.81#1 of 32	1.90goals
DAL	1.93#23 of 32	2.07#17 of 32	1.97goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
MTL	0.47#27 of 32	0.59#19 of 32	0.51goals
DAL	0.60#12 of 32	0.69#30 of 32	0.75goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Tonight
MTL
Cole Caufield R	-5.1%	Plays
Nick Suzuki C	-4.5%	OUT
Juraj Slafkovský L	-3.2%	Plays
Lane Hutson D	-2.3%	Plays
Ivan Demidov R	-1.5%	OUT · IR
DAL
Jason Robertson L	-5.5%	Plays
Wyatt Johnston C	-4.2%	Plays
Mikko Rantanen R	-4.1%	Plays
Roope Hintz C	-2.7%	Plays
Miro Heiskanen D	-1.6%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Tonight
MTL
Lane Hutson D	+1.9%	Plays
Zachary Bolduc R	+1.2%	Plays
Cole Caufield R	+1.2%	Plays
Nick Suzuki C	+1.0%	OUT
Juraj Slafkovský L	+0.7%	Plays
DAL
Jason Robertson L	+1.6%	Plays
Miro Heiskanen D	+1.4%	Plays
Mikko Rantanen R	+1.2%	Plays
Thomas Harley D	+1.1%	Plays
Nils Lundkvist D	+1.1%	Plays

Also out: DAL: Matt Duchene -1.2% attack, +0.2% defense

How the projection moved today (5.94 → 5.90)

12:05 AM 5.94 first run
3:14 AM 5.94 Line 6 o-124 → 6 o-110
6:44 AM 5.94 Line 6 o-110 → 6.5 o+113
11:23 AM 5.91 -0.03Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.03; Line 6.5 o+113 → 5.5 o-137
12:17 PM 5.90 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Sam Steel (DAL) back in -0.01; DAL goalie Jake Oettinger: Likely → Confirmed; Sam Steel (DAL) day-to-day; DAL lineup: Robert Tiffin Oct 29 11:52 AM; Line 5.5 o-137 → 6 o-110
1:17 PM 5.90 Sam Steel (DAL) off day-to-day
2:17 PM 5.90 no change
3:19 PM 5.90 no change
4:20 PM 5.90 Line 6 o-110 → 6 o-122
4:49 PM 5.90 Line 6 o-122 → 6 o-119
6:20 PM 5.90 no change

10:00 PM ETAVOID

5.5 o-125 → 5.5 o-127

OTT#13 OFF / #8 DEF3.18●

J. Johansson ✓ Trash 3

LAK#27 OFF / #16 DEF2.68●

D. Kuemper ✓ Mid 48

Proj total 5.85 · P(7+) 42%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
OTT	1.97	0.67	-2.0%	0.52	–	+1.6%	+0.9%
LAK	1.65	0.46	+4.0%	0.52	–	-1.5%	-0.7%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
OTT	2.05#16 of 32	1.96#12 of 32	1.97goals
LAK	1.81#27 of 32	1.85#4 of 32	1.65goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
OTT	0.64#8 of 32	0.57#16 of 32	0.67goals
LAK	0.47#30 of 32	0.54#10 of 32	0.46goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Tonight
OTT
Tim Stützle C	-4.2%	Plays
Drake Batherson R	-3.6%	Plays
Dylan Cozens C	-2.3%	Plays
Shane Pinto C	-1.6%	Plays
Claude Giroux R	-1.4%	Plays
LAK
Artemi Panarin L	-4.1%	Plays
Adrian Kempe R	-3.4%	Plays
Quinton Byfield R	-1.3%	Plays
Kevin Fiala L	-1.0%	OUT · IR
Alex Laferriere R	-0.9%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Tonight
OTT
Jordan Spence D	+2.1%	Plays
Drake Batherson R	+1.5%	Plays
Dylan Cozens C	+1.3%	Plays
Tim Stützle C	+1.2%	Plays
Tyler Kleven D	+1.1%	Plays
LAK
Brandt Clarke D	+1.7%	Plays
Artemi Panarin L	+1.1%	Plays
Adrian Kempe R	+1.1%	Plays
Alex Laferriere R	+0.9%	Plays
Drew Doughty D	+0.8%	Plays

How the projection moved today (5.98 → 5.85)

12:05 AM 5.98 first run
3:14 AM 5.98 no change
6:44 AM 5.98 Line 5.5 o-125 → 5.5 o-126
11:23 AM 5.96 -0.02Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.02; Line 5.5 o-126 → 5.5 o-129
12:17 PM 5.96 Line 5.5 o-129 → 5.5 o-128
1:17 PM 5.96 no change
2:17 PM 5.96 Injuries / lineup: Nikolas Matinpalo (OTT) out, Thomas Chabot (OTT) back in -0.00; Thomas Chabot (OTT) day-to-day; OTT lineup: Projected Oct 29 1:40 PM; LAK lineup: Projected Oct 29 1:42 PM
3:19 PM 5.85 -0.11OTT goalie: Samuel Ersson → Jonas Johansson -0.09; Injuries / lineup: Warren Foegele (OTT) out, Nikolas Matinpalo (OTT) back in, Corey Perry (LAK) back in, Drew Doughty (LAK) back in -0.02; Thomas Chabot (OTT) off day-to-day; OTT lineup: Jackson Starr Oct 29 2:37 PM; LAK goalie Darcy Kuemper: Likely → Confirmed; Line 5.5 o-128 → 5.5 o-127
4:20 PM 5.85 no change
4:49 PM 5.85 no change
6:20 PM 5.85 no change

Two rows per game (away, then home). ● = team projected high-scoring. Proj = (5v5 + PP + Oth) × goalie (Gl) × back-to-back (B2B) × team speed (Spd) × injuries (Inj). Hover or tap any underlined label for an explanation.

Yesterday's results

Wednesday, October 28 · 4 games · 1 flag · 3 of 4 went over the line · avg 6.8 goals (projected 6.3) · flags 1-0-0 (+0.82u at close) · calls: 🔨 SLAM 1-0-0 · 1U – · PASS – · AVOID 1 of 3 stayed under · day page →

Breakdown (for scoring):greatgoodmidbadtrash

Team

Result

Goalies

Projection breakdown

Team

Proj

Total goals

Proj total

P(7+)

Line

Pick

Goalie

5v5

Oth

B2B

Spd

Inj

TOR#18 OFF / #29 DEF

3.28●

9O 6.5

6.57

52%

6.5 → 6.5

10:00 PM ET
🔨 SLAM
W
paper W +0.82u

S. Bobrovsky ✓ Mid 41

2.25

0.58

+2.0%

0.52

–

+0.2%

-3.9%

SEA#29 OFF / #30 DEF

3.29●

P. Grubauer ✓ Trash 10

2.21

0.62

-1.5%

0.52

–

-0.5%

–

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
TOR	2.06#15 of 32	2.23#28 of 32	2.25goals	0.60#12 of 32	0.53#7 of 32	0.58goals
SEA	2.06#15 of 32	2.19#27 of 32	2.21goals	0.52#25 of 32	0.66#28 of 32	0.62goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Pre-game	Player	If out	Pre-game
TOR	William Nylander R	-4.7%	Plays	Darren Raddysh D	+0.6%	Plays
	Auston Matthews C	-4.2%	Plays	Jack Roslovic C	+0.5%	Plays
	John Tavares C	-2.7%	OUT · IR	Kirill Marchenko R	+0.4%	OUT
	Kirill Marchenko R	-1.7%	OUT	Nick Paul L	+0.4%	Plays
	Darren Raddysh D	-1.4%	Plays	Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	+0.3%	Plays
SEA	Jordan Eberle R	-2.0%	Plays	Jordan Eberle R	+0.8%	Plays
	Jared McCann L	-1.9%	OUT · IR	Matty Beniers C	+0.8%	Plays
	Bobby McMann C	-1.4%	Plays	Shane Wright C	+0.8%	Plays
	Matty Beniers C	-1.1%	Plays	Ryker Evans D	+0.7%	Plays
	Kaapo Kakko R	-0.9%	Plays	Berkly Catton C	+0.7%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (6.51 → 6.57)

12:02 AM 6.51 first run
1:55 AM 6.51 TOR goalie Anthony Stolarz: Projected → Likely; SEA goalie Philipp Grubauer: Projected → Likely; Line 6.5 o-119 → 6.5 o-118
6:19 AM 6.51 no change
11:18 AM 6.51 Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-120
12:18 PM 6.51 no change
1:18 PM 6.51 no change
2:18 PM 6.51 no change
3:18 PM 6.57 +0.06TOR goalie: Anthony Stolarz → Sergei Bobrovsky +0.10; Injuries / lineup: Kirill Marchenko (TOR) out -0.04; TOR lineup: David Alter Oct 28 2:40 PM
4:18 PM 6.57 TOR goalie Sergei Bobrovsky: Likely → Confirmed
4:22 PM 6.57 no change
5:18 PM 6.57 no change
6:18 PM 6.57 no change
7:18 PM 6.57 Line 6.5 o-120 → 6.5 o-121
8:18 PM 6.57 no change
8:46 PM 6.57 no change
9:04 PM 6.57 no change
9:18 PM 6.57 Line 6.5 o-121 → 6.5 o-120
9:46 PM 6.57 TOR lineup: David Alter Oct 28 9:42 PM; SEA goalie Philipp Grubauer: Likely → Confirmed

🔨 SLAM: both teams project as high-scoring (TOR 3.28, SEA 3.29; cutoff 3.10), the line is 6.5, and both are good or better at 5-on-5, the strongest over spot the model has. At 5-on-5, TOR is great (2.25) and SEA is great (2.21); on the power play, TOR is mid (0.58) and SEA is good (0.62). TOR faces Philipp Grubauer, a Trash goalie, grade 10 (+2.0%); SEA faces Sergei Bobrovsky, a Mid goalie, grade 41 (-1.5%). Other factors: injuries cost TOR 3.9%. TOR 3.28: 0.14 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.20 (its attack ranks #15 of 32, SEA's defense #28); Philipp Grubauer in goal +0.07 (a Trash goalie, grade 10, +2.0%). Holding it back: injuries -0.13 (missing players on both teams, net, -3.9%). SEA 3.29: 0.15 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.17 (its attack ranks #15 of 32, TOR's defense #27); power play +0.04 (its power play ranks #25, TOR's penalty kill and penalty habits #28). Holding it back: Sergei Bobrovsky in goal -0.05 (a Mid goalie, grade 41, -1.5%); team speed -0.02 (it skates slower than TOR, -0.5%). The model projects 6.57 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 52% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over 55% of the time at the opening line and 56.5% at the closing line in 2021-26. Final: 9 goals (TOR 4, SEA 5), so it went over 6.5 and the call was right.

NJD#6 OFF / #6 DEF

2.63●

7O 6.5

6.33

45%

6.5 → 6.5

9:00 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over

J. Allen ✓ Mid 48

2.02

0.54

-1.8%

0.54

-8.0%

-5.7%

-0.3%

COL#4 OFF / #7 DEF

3.70●

M. Blackwood ✓ Mid 46

2.34

0.46

-2.0%

0.51

+6.5%

+6.3%

+0.6%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NJD	2.08#13 of 32	1.98#13 of 32	2.02goals	0.58#16 of 32	0.51#5 of 32	0.54goals
COL	2.56#1 of 32	1.86#4 of 32	2.34goals	0.54#21 of 32	0.48#2 of 32	0.46goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Pre-game	Player	If out	Pre-game
NJD	Jack Hughes C	-4.2%	Plays	Jack Hughes C	+1.3%	Plays
	Nico Hischier C	-3.6%	Plays	Luke Hughes D	+1.2%	Plays
	Jesper Bratt L	-3.4%	Plays	Jesper Bratt L	+1.0%	Plays
	Timo Meier R	-1.8%	Plays	Dougie Hamilton D	+1.0%	Plays
	Dougie Hamilton D	-1.4%	Plays	Arseny Gritsyuk R	+1.0%	Plays
COL	Nathan MacKinnon C	-6.9%	Plays	Martin Necas C	+1.4%	Plays
	Martin Necas C	-5.1%	Plays	Sam Malinski D	+1.3%	Plays
	Cale Makar D	-3.2%	Plays	Nathan MacKinnon C	+1.3%	Plays
	Artturi Lehkonen L	-2.9%	Plays	Brett Kulak D	+0.9%	Plays
	Brock Nelson C	-2.7%	Plays	Cale Makar D	+0.9%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (6.09 → 6.33)

12:02 AM 6.09 first run
1:55 AM 6.33 +0.24NJD goalie: Connor Hellebuyck → Jake Allen +0.24; COL goalie Mackenzie Blackwood: Projected → Likely; Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o+100
6:19 AM 6.33 NJD goalie Jake Allen: Conflict → Confirmed
11:18 AM 6.33 NJD lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-27); Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o-100
12:18 PM 6.33 no change
1:18 PM 6.33 COL goalie Mackenzie Blackwood: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o+100
2:18 PM 6.33 Nicolas Roy (COL) off day-to-day; COL lineup: Bailey Curtis Oct 28 1:25 PM; Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o-100
3:18 PM 6.33 Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o-103
4:18 PM 6.33 Line 6.5 o-103 → 6.5 o-104
4:22 PM 6.33 no change
5:18 PM 6.33 no change
6:18 PM 6.33 Line 6.5 o-104 → 6.5 o-103
7:18 PM 6.33 Injuries / lineup: Johnathan Kovacevic (NJD) out, Declan Chisholm (NJD) back in -0.00
8:18 PM 6.33 no change
8:46 PM 6.33 no change

AVOID: NJD projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (NJD 2.63). The 6.33 total looks high, but most of it comes from COL; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, NJD is mid (2.02) and COL is great (2.34); on the power play, NJD is mid (0.54) and COL is bad (0.46). NJD faces Mackenzie Blackwood, a Mid goalie, grade 46 (-1.8%); COL faces Jake Allen, a Mid goalie, grade 48 (-2.0%). Other factors: NJD played yesterday (-8%); NJD's team speed costs 5.7%; COL's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); COL's team speed adds 6.3%. NJD 2.63: 0.51 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.24 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); team speed -0.16 (it skates slower than COL, -5.7%); Mackenzie Blackwood in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 46, -1.8%); power play -0.04 (its power play ranks #16, COL's penalty kill and penalty habits #5); 5-on-5 matchup -0.03 (its attack ranks #13 of 32, COL's defense #13). COL 3.70: 0.56 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.30 (its attack ranks #1 of 32, NJD's defense #4); team speed +0.22 (it skates faster than NJD, +6.3%); back-to-back +0.21 (NJD played yesterday, +6.5%); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.6%). Holding it back: power play -0.11 (its power play ranks #21, NJD's penalty kill and penalty habits #2); Jake Allen in goal -0.07 (a Mid goalie, grade 48, -2.0%). The model projects 6.33 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (NJD 2, COL 5), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

PHI#31 OFF / #19 DEF

2.40●

7O 5.5

6.24

42%

5.5 → 5.5

7:30 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over

J. Woll ✓ Mid 58

1.75

0.63

-8.1%

0.54

-8.0%

-1.3%

-1.5%

WSH#10 OFF / #24 DEF

3.83●

L. Thompson ✓ Strong 92

2.46

0.58

-2.8%

0.51

+6.5%

+1.5%

+2.6%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
PHI	1.64#32 of 32	2.17#25 of 32	1.75goals	0.52#23 of 32	0.67#29 of 32	0.63goals
WSH	2.31#4 of 32	2.17#23 of 32	2.46goals	0.51#26 of 32	0.63#25 of 32	0.58goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Pre-game	Player	If out	Pre-game
PHI	Trevor Zegras C	-2.3%	Plays	Jamie Drysdale D	+1.2%	Plays
	Matvei Michkov R	-2.3%	Plays	Matvei Michkov R	+1.0%	Plays
	Travis Konecny R	-1.4%	OUT · IR	Noah Cates L	+1.0%	Plays
	Owen Tippett R	-1.4%	OUT · IR	Trevor Zegras C	+1.0%	Plays
	Tyson Foerster R	-0.8%	Plays	Owen Tippett R	+0.9%	OUT · IR
WSH	Alex Ovechkin L	-3.4%	Plays	Jakob Chychrun D	+1.1%	Plays
	Tom Wilson R	-3.0%	Plays	Justin Sourdif C	+0.7%	Plays
	Dylan Strome C	-3.0%	Plays	Dylan Strome C	+0.6%	Plays
	Jakob Chychrun D	-2.5%	Plays	Ryan Leonard R	+0.6%	Plays
	Ryan Leonard R	-1.7%	Plays	Rasmus Sandin D	+0.5%	OUT · IR

How the projection moved on game day (6.30 → 6.24)

12:02 AM 6.30 first run
1:55 AM 6.51 +0.21WSH goalie: Logan Thompson → Charlie Lindgren +0.21
6:19 AM 6.23 -0.27WSH goalie: Charlie Lindgren → Logan Thompson -0.21; PHI goalie: Dan Vladar → Joseph Woll -0.06
11:18 AM 6.23 PHI lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-27); Line 6.5 o+105 → 6.5 o+108
12:18 PM 6.23 Line 6.5 o+108 → 6.5 o+109
1:18 PM 6.23 WSH goalie Logan Thompson: Likely → Confirmed; WSH lineup: Sammi Silber Oct 28 12:52 PM
2:18 PM 6.23 Line 6.5 o+109 → 6.5 o+113
3:18 PM 6.23 no change
4:18 PM 6.23 Line 6.5 o+113 → 6.5 o-101
4:22 PM 6.23 no change
5:18 PM 6.23 Line 6.5 o-101 → 6 o-115
6:18 PM 6.23 PHI goalie Joseph Woll: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6 o-115 → 6 o-127
7:18 PM 6.24 Injuries / lineup: Michael Bunting (PHI) out +0.00; PHI lineup: Jackie Spiegel Oct 28 7:09 PM; WSH lineup: Sammi Silber Oct 28 7:11 PM; Line 6 o-127 → 5.5 o-125

AVOID: PHI projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (PHI 2.40); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. The 6.24 total looks high, but most of it comes from WSH; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, PHI is trash (1.75) and WSH is great (2.46); on the power play, PHI is good (0.63) and WSH is mid (0.58). PHI faces Logan Thompson, a Strong goalie, grade 92 (-8.1%); WSH faces Joseph Woll, a Mid goalie, grade 58 (-2.8%). Other factors: PHI played yesterday (-8%); injuries cost PHI 1.5%; WSH's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); injuries help WSH 2.6%. PHI 2.40: 0.74 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: power play +0.05 (its power play ranks #23, WSH's penalty kill and penalty habits #29). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.30 (its attack ranks #32 of 32, WSH's defense #25); Logan Thompson in goal -0.24 (a Strong goalie, grade 92, -8.1%); back-to-back -0.21 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); injuries -0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.5%); team speed -0.03 (it skates slower than WSH, -1.3%). WSH 3.83: 0.69 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.42 (its attack ranks #4 of 32, PHI's defense #23); back-to-back +0.22 (PHI played yesterday, +6.5%); injuries +0.10 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.6%); team speed +0.06 (it skates faster than PHI, +1.5%). Holding it back: Joseph Woll in goal -0.10 (a Mid goalie, grade 58, -2.8%). The model projects 6.24 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 42% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 6.5 to 5.5, toward the under. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (PHI 2, WSH 5), so it went over 5.5 and the call was wrong.

CGY#26 OFF / #25 DEF

2.61●

4U 6.5

6.13

43%

6.5 → 6.5

8:30 PM ET
AVOID
✓ under

D. Cooley ✓ Good 73

1.73

0.48

+2.4%

0.52

–

-7.0%

+0.2%

EDM#7 OFF / #17 DEF

3.52●

T. Jarry ✓ Trash 9

2.21

0.79

-4.3%

0.52

–

+7.1%

-2.3%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CGY	1.81#28 of 32	1.95#11 of 32	1.73goals	0.48#27 of 32	0.55#12 of 32	0.48goals
EDM	2.07#14 of 32	2.17#24 of 32	2.21goals	0.73#2 of 32	0.60#21 of 32	0.79goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Pre-game	Player	If out	Pre-game
CGY	Matt Coronato R	-1.6%	Plays	Morgan Frost C	+0.8%	Plays
	Morgan Frost C	-1.4%	Plays	Matt Coronato R	+0.4%	Plays
	Matvei Gridin R	-0.7%	Plays	Adam Klapka R	+0.4%	Plays
	Joel Farabee L	-0.6%	Plays	Ryan Strome C	+0.4%	Plays
	Jonathan Huberdeau L	-0.5%	OUT · IR	Joel Hanley D	+0.4%	OUT · scratch
EDM	Connor McDavid C	-8.2%	Plays	Leon Draisaitl C	+1.5%	Plays
	Leon Draisaitl C	-7.0%	Plays	Connor McDavid C	+1.5%	Plays
	Evan Bouchard D	-5.0%	Plays	Evan Bouchard D	+1.5%	Plays
	Zach Hyman L	-2.8%	OUT · IR	Vasily Podkolzin R	+1.3%	Plays
	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C	-1.8%	Plays	Zach Hyman L	+0.6%	OUT · IR

How the projection moved on game day (6.14 → 6.13)

12:02 AM 6.14 first run
1:55 AM 6.14 CGY goalie Devin Cooley: Projected → Likely; EDM goalie Tristan Jarry: Projected → Likely
6:19 AM 6.14 Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-114
11:18 AM 6.14 Line 6.5 o-114 → 6.5 o-115
12:18 PM 6.14 no change
1:18 PM 6.14 CGY goalie Devin Cooley: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-114
2:18 PM 6.16 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Mattias Ekholm (EDM) back in +0.01; CGY lineup: Derek Wills Oct 28 1:54 PM; Mattias Ekholm (EDM) day-to-day; Line 6.5 o-114 → 6.5 o-115
3:18 PM 6.16 EDM goalie Tristan Jarry: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-114
4:18 PM 6.16 no change
4:22 PM 6.16 no change
5:18 PM 6.13 -0.02Injuries / lineup: Jason Dickinson (EDM) back in -0.02; Jason Dickinson (EDM) day-to-day
6:18 PM 6.13 Line 6.5 o-114 → 6.5 o-115
7:18 PM 6.13 Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-123
8:18 PM 6.13 no change

AVOID: CGY projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (CGY 2.61). The 6.13 total looks high, but most of it comes from EDM; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, CGY is trash (1.73) and EDM is great (2.21); on the power play, CGY is bad (0.48) and EDM is great (0.79). CGY faces Tristan Jarry, a Trash goalie, grade 9 (+2.4%); EDM faces Devin Cooley, a Good goalie, grade 73 (-4.3%). Other factors: CGY's team speed costs 7.0%; EDM's team speed adds 7.1%; injuries cost EDM 2.3%. CGY 2.61: 0.53 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: Tristan Jarry in goal +0.06 (a Trash goalie, grade 9, +2.4%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.31 (its attack ranks #28 of 32, EDM's defense #11); team speed -0.20 (it skates slower than EDM, -7.0%); power play -0.10 (its power play ranks #27, EDM's penalty kill and penalty habits #12). EDM 3.52: 0.38 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: team speed +0.24 (it skates faster than CGY, +7.1%); power play +0.21 (its power play ranks #2, CGY's penalty kill and penalty habits #21); 5-on-5 matchup +0.16 (its attack ranks #14 of 32, CGY's defense #24). Holding it back: Devin Cooley in goal -0.15 (a Good goalie, grade 73, -4.3%); injuries -0.08 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.3%). The model projects 6.13 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 43% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 4 goals (CGY 0, EDM 4), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

10:00 PM ET🔨 SLAM

O 6.5 W
paper W +0.82u

TOR#18 OFF / #29 DEF43.28●

S. Bobrovsky ✓ Mid 41

SEA#29 OFF / #30 DEF53.29●

P. Grubauer ✓ Trash 10

9 goals · proj 6.57 · P(7+) 52%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
TOR	2.25	0.58	+2.0%	0.52	–	+0.2%	-3.9%
SEA	2.21	0.62	-1.5%	0.52	–	-0.5%	–

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
TOR	2.06#15 of 32	2.23#28 of 32	2.25goals
SEA	2.06#15 of 32	2.19#27 of 32	2.21goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
TOR	0.60#12 of 32	0.53#7 of 32	0.58goals
SEA	0.52#25 of 32	0.66#28 of 32	0.62goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
TOR
William Nylander R	-4.7%	Plays
Auston Matthews C	-4.2%	Plays
John Tavares C	-2.7%	OUT · IR
Kirill Marchenko R	-1.7%	OUT
Darren Raddysh D	-1.4%	Plays
SEA
Jordan Eberle R	-2.0%	Plays
Jared McCann L	-1.9%	OUT · IR
Bobby McMann C	-1.4%	Plays
Matty Beniers C	-1.1%	Plays
Kaapo Kakko R	-0.9%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
TOR
Darren Raddysh D	+0.6%	Plays
Jack Roslovic C	+0.5%	Plays
Kirill Marchenko R	+0.4%	OUT
Nick Paul L	+0.4%	Plays
Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	+0.3%	Plays
SEA
Jordan Eberle R	+0.8%	Plays
Matty Beniers C	+0.8%	Plays
Shane Wright C	+0.8%	Plays
Ryker Evans D	+0.7%	Plays
Berkly Catton C	+0.7%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (6.51 → 6.57)

12:02 AM 6.51 first run
1:55 AM 6.51 TOR goalie Anthony Stolarz: Projected → Likely; SEA goalie Philipp Grubauer: Projected → Likely; Line 6.5 o-119 → 6.5 o-118
6:19 AM 6.51 no change
11:18 AM 6.51 Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-120
12:18 PM 6.51 no change
1:18 PM 6.51 no change
2:18 PM 6.51 no change
3:18 PM 6.57 +0.06TOR goalie: Anthony Stolarz → Sergei Bobrovsky +0.10; Injuries / lineup: Kirill Marchenko (TOR) out -0.04; TOR lineup: David Alter Oct 28 2:40 PM
4:18 PM 6.57 TOR goalie Sergei Bobrovsky: Likely → Confirmed
4:22 PM 6.57 no change
5:18 PM 6.57 no change
6:18 PM 6.57 no change
7:18 PM 6.57 Line 6.5 o-120 → 6.5 o-121
8:18 PM 6.57 no change
8:46 PM 6.57 no change
9:04 PM 6.57 no change
9:18 PM 6.57 Line 6.5 o-121 → 6.5 o-120
9:46 PM 6.57 TOR lineup: David Alter Oct 28 9:42 PM; SEA goalie Philipp Grubauer: Likely → Confirmed

9:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

NJD#6 OFF / #6 DEF22.63●

J. Allen ✓ Mid 48

COL#4 OFF / #7 DEF53.70●

M. Blackwood ✓ Mid 46

7 goals · proj 6.33 · P(7+) 45%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
NJD	2.02	0.54	-1.8%	0.54	-8.0%	-5.7%	-0.3%
COL	2.34	0.46	-2.0%	0.51	+6.5%	+6.3%	+0.6%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NJD	2.08#13 of 32	1.98#13 of 32	2.02goals
COL	2.56#1 of 32	1.86#4 of 32	2.34goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NJD	0.58#16 of 32	0.51#5 of 32	0.54goals
COL	0.54#21 of 32	0.48#2 of 32	0.46goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
NJD
Jack Hughes C	-4.2%	Plays
Nico Hischier C	-3.6%	Plays
Jesper Bratt L	-3.4%	Plays
Timo Meier R	-1.8%	Plays
Dougie Hamilton D	-1.4%	Plays
COL
Nathan MacKinnon C	-6.9%	Plays
Martin Necas C	-5.1%	Plays
Cale Makar D	-3.2%	Plays
Artturi Lehkonen L	-2.9%	Plays
Brock Nelson C	-2.7%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
NJD
Jack Hughes C	+1.3%	Plays
Luke Hughes D	+1.2%	Plays
Jesper Bratt L	+1.0%	Plays
Dougie Hamilton D	+1.0%	Plays
Arseny Gritsyuk R	+1.0%	Plays
COL
Martin Necas C	+1.4%	Plays
Sam Malinski D	+1.3%	Plays
Nathan MacKinnon C	+1.3%	Plays
Brett Kulak D	+0.9%	Plays
Cale Makar D	+0.9%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (6.09 → 6.33)

12:02 AM 6.09 first run
1:55 AM 6.33 +0.24NJD goalie: Connor Hellebuyck → Jake Allen +0.24; COL goalie Mackenzie Blackwood: Projected → Likely; Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o+100
6:19 AM 6.33 NJD goalie Jake Allen: Conflict → Confirmed
11:18 AM 6.33 NJD lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-27); Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o-100
12:18 PM 6.33 no change
1:18 PM 6.33 COL goalie Mackenzie Blackwood: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o+100
2:18 PM 6.33 Nicolas Roy (COL) off day-to-day; COL lineup: Bailey Curtis Oct 28 1:25 PM; Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o-100
3:18 PM 6.33 Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o-103
4:18 PM 6.33 Line 6.5 o-103 → 6.5 o-104
4:22 PM 6.33 no change
5:18 PM 6.33 no change
6:18 PM 6.33 Line 6.5 o-104 → 6.5 o-103
7:18 PM 6.33 Injuries / lineup: Johnathan Kovacevic (NJD) out, Declan Chisholm (NJD) back in -0.00
8:18 PM 6.33 no change
8:46 PM 6.33 no change

7:30 PM ETAVOID

O 5.5 ✗ went over

PHI#31 OFF / #19 DEF22.40●

J. Woll ✓ Mid 58

WSH#10 OFF / #24 DEF53.83●

L. Thompson ✓ Strong 92

7 goals · proj 6.24 · P(7+) 42%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
PHI	1.75	0.63	-8.1%	0.54	-8.0%	-1.3%	-1.5%
WSH	2.46	0.58	-2.8%	0.51	+6.5%	+1.5%	+2.6%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
PHI	1.64#32 of 32	2.17#25 of 32	1.75goals
WSH	2.31#4 of 32	2.17#23 of 32	2.46goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
PHI	0.52#23 of 32	0.67#29 of 32	0.63goals
WSH	0.51#26 of 32	0.63#25 of 32	0.58goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
PHI
Trevor Zegras C	-2.3%	Plays
Matvei Michkov R	-2.3%	Plays
Travis Konecny R	-1.4%	OUT · IR
Owen Tippett R	-1.4%	OUT · IR
Tyson Foerster R	-0.8%	Plays
WSH
Alex Ovechkin L	-3.4%	Plays
Tom Wilson R	-3.0%	Plays
Dylan Strome C	-3.0%	Plays
Jakob Chychrun D	-2.5%	Plays
Ryan Leonard R	-1.7%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
PHI
Jamie Drysdale D	+1.2%	Plays
Matvei Michkov R	+1.0%	Plays
Noah Cates L	+1.0%	Plays
Trevor Zegras C	+1.0%	Plays
Owen Tippett R	+0.9%	OUT · IR
WSH
Jakob Chychrun D	+1.1%	Plays
Justin Sourdif C	+0.7%	Plays
Dylan Strome C	+0.6%	Plays
Ryan Leonard R	+0.6%	Plays
Rasmus Sandin D	+0.5%	OUT · IR

How the projection moved on game day (6.30 → 6.24)

12:02 AM 6.30 first run
1:55 AM 6.51 +0.21WSH goalie: Logan Thompson → Charlie Lindgren +0.21
6:19 AM 6.23 -0.27WSH goalie: Charlie Lindgren → Logan Thompson -0.21; PHI goalie: Dan Vladar → Joseph Woll -0.06
11:18 AM 6.23 PHI lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-27); Line 6.5 o+105 → 6.5 o+108
12:18 PM 6.23 Line 6.5 o+108 → 6.5 o+109
1:18 PM 6.23 WSH goalie Logan Thompson: Likely → Confirmed; WSH lineup: Sammi Silber Oct 28 12:52 PM
2:18 PM 6.23 Line 6.5 o+109 → 6.5 o+113
3:18 PM 6.23 no change
4:18 PM 6.23 Line 6.5 o+113 → 6.5 o-101
4:22 PM 6.23 no change
5:18 PM 6.23 Line 6.5 o-101 → 6 o-115
6:18 PM 6.23 PHI goalie Joseph Woll: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6 o-115 → 6 o-127
7:18 PM 6.24 Injuries / lineup: Michael Bunting (PHI) out +0.00; PHI lineup: Jackie Spiegel Oct 28 7:09 PM; WSH lineup: Sammi Silber Oct 28 7:11 PM; Line 6 o-127 → 5.5 o-125

8:30 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

CGY#26 OFF / #25 DEF02.61●

D. Cooley ✓ Good 73

EDM#7 OFF / #17 DEF43.52●

T. Jarry ✓ Trash 9

4 goals · proj 6.13 · P(7+) 43%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
CGY	1.73	0.48	+2.4%	0.52	–	-7.0%	+0.2%
EDM	2.21	0.79	-4.3%	0.52	–	+7.1%	-2.3%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CGY	1.81#28 of 32	1.95#11 of 32	1.73goals
EDM	2.07#14 of 32	2.17#24 of 32	2.21goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CGY	0.48#27 of 32	0.55#12 of 32	0.48goals
EDM	0.73#2 of 32	0.60#21 of 32	0.79goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
CGY
Matt Coronato R	-1.6%	Plays
Morgan Frost C	-1.4%	Plays
Matvei Gridin R	-0.7%	Plays
Joel Farabee L	-0.6%	Plays
Jonathan Huberdeau L	-0.5%	OUT · IR
EDM
Connor McDavid C	-8.2%	Plays
Leon Draisaitl C	-7.0%	Plays
Evan Bouchard D	-5.0%	Plays
Zach Hyman L	-2.8%	OUT · IR
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C	-1.8%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
CGY
Morgan Frost C	+0.8%	Plays
Matt Coronato R	+0.4%	Plays
Adam Klapka R	+0.4%	Plays
Ryan Strome C	+0.4%	Plays
Joel Hanley D	+0.4%	OUT · scratch
EDM
Leon Draisaitl C	+1.5%	Plays
Connor McDavid C	+1.5%	Plays
Evan Bouchard D	+1.5%	Plays
Vasily Podkolzin R	+1.3%	Plays
Zach Hyman L	+0.6%	OUT · IR

How the projection moved on game day (6.14 → 6.13)

12:02 AM 6.14 first run
1:55 AM 6.14 CGY goalie Devin Cooley: Projected → Likely; EDM goalie Tristan Jarry: Projected → Likely
6:19 AM 6.14 Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-114
11:18 AM 6.14 Line 6.5 o-114 → 6.5 o-115
12:18 PM 6.14 no change
1:18 PM 6.14 CGY goalie Devin Cooley: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-114
2:18 PM 6.16 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Mattias Ekholm (EDM) back in +0.01; CGY lineup: Derek Wills Oct 28 1:54 PM; Mattias Ekholm (EDM) day-to-day; Line 6.5 o-114 → 6.5 o-115
3:18 PM 6.16 EDM goalie Tristan Jarry: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-114
4:18 PM 6.16 no change
4:22 PM 6.16 no change
5:18 PM 6.13 -0.02Injuries / lineup: Jason Dickinson (EDM) back in -0.02; Jason Dickinson (EDM) day-to-day
6:18 PM 6.13 Line 6.5 o-114 → 6.5 o-115
7:18 PM 6.13 Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-123
8:18 PM 6.13 no change

Paper trading record

Flagged overs

Flagged picks

20 settled

Record

10-10-0

50.0% wins

ROI · closing line

-9.1%

-1.82u

🔨 SLAM

9-6-0

+1.49u

1-2-0

-1.31u

PASS

0-2-0

-2.00u

Date	Game	Call	Close	Goals	Result	Units
2026-10-2810/28	TOR @ SEA	🔨 SLAM	o6.5-122	9	W	+0.82
2026-10-2710/27	MIN @ UTA	PASS	o6.5-101	4	L	-1.00
2026-10-2410/24	BUF @ WSH	🔨 SLAM	o6.5-129	7	W	+0.78
2026-10-2410/24	NSH @ PIT	1U	o6.5-107	5	L	-1.00
2026-10-2210/22	CAR @ EDM	🔨 SLAM	o6.5-131	11	W	+0.76
2026-10-2210/22	FLA @ PIT	🔨 SLAM	o6.5-125	4	L	-1.00
2026-10-2010/20	DET @ SEA	🔨 SLAM	o6.5-105	7	W	+0.95
2026-10-1910/19	PIT @ UTA	🔨 SLAM	o6.5-141	9	W	+0.71
2026-10-1710/17	EDM @ UTA	🔨 SLAM	o6.5-120	8	W	+0.83
2026-10-1710/17	NJD @ WSH	🔨 SLAM	o6.5+111	6	L	-1.00
2026-10-1610/16	BOS @ ANA	🔨 SLAM	o6.5-107	6	L	-1.00
2026-10-1510/15	UTA @ EDM	🔨 SLAM	o6.5-123	6	L	-1.00
2026-10-1410/14	MTL @ WSH	🔨 SLAM	o6.5-118	9	W	+0.85
2026-10-1310/13	WSH @ CAR	🔨 SLAM	o6.5-101	6	L	-1.00
2026-10-0910/09	PIT @ CBJ	🔨 SLAM	o6.5-129	5	L	-1.00
2026-10-0710/07	EDM @ ANA	1U	o6.5-145	7	W	+0.69
2026-10-0710/07	PIT @ WSH	🔨 SLAM	o6.5-112	8	W	+0.89
2026-10-0410/04	FLA @ ANA	PASS	o6.5-118	5	L	-1.00
2026-10-0310/03	UTA @ CBJ	1U	o6.5+113	5	L	-1.00
2026-10-0310/03	MTL @ PIT	🔨 SLAM	o6.5-111	11	W	+0.90

Record by type

Did the game go over the closing line? SLAM and 1U are the flagged picks above; the rest are not bets.

Type	Games	Over-under-push	Over %	Units
🔨 SLAM	15	9-6-0	60%	+1.49u
1U	3	1-2-0	33%	-1.31u
AVOID	165	81-83-1	49%	-5.41u
Top total	27	19-8-0	70%	+8.47u
Top P(7+)	27	19-8-0	70%	+8.34u
P(7+) over 50%	22	13-9-0	59%	+1.63u

Every tracked pick (205)

Date	Game	Tracked	Close	Goals	Result	Units
2026-10-2810/28	TOR @ SEA	Top total · Top P(7+) · P(7+) 50%+	o6.5-122	9	W	+0.82
2026-10-2810/28	PHI @ WSH	AVOID	u5.5+105	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-2810/28	CGY @ EDM	AVOID	u6.5-112	4	W	+0.89
2026-10-2810/28	NJD @ COL	AVOID	u6.5-120	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-2710/27	VAN @ ANA	Top total · Top P(7+) · P(7+) 50%+	o6.5-137	11	W	+0.73
2026-10-2710/27	MIN @ UTA	P(7+) 50%+	o6.5-101	4	L	-1.00
2026-10-2710/27	CBJ @ PHI	AVOID	u5.5-103	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-2710/27	BOS @ CAR	AVOID	u6.5-121	3	W	+0.83
2026-10-2710/27	LAK @ CHI	AVOID	u5.5+111	3	W	+1.11
2026-10-2710/27	MTL @ STL	AVOID	u6.5-125	2	W	+0.80
2026-10-2710/27	NYI @ NSH	AVOID	u5.5+100	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-2710/27	NJD @ DAL	AVOID	u5.5-108	6	L	-1.00
2026-10-2710/27	FLA @ WPG	AVOID	u6.5-128	6	W	+0.78
2026-10-2710/27	OTT @ VGK	AVOID	u6.5-111	5	W	+0.90
2026-10-2710/27	VAN @ ANA	AVOID	u6.5+114	11	L	-1.00
2026-10-2710/27	BUF @ SJS	AVOID	u6.5+118	2	W	+1.18
2026-10-2610/26	DET @ EDM	Top total · Top P(7+)	o6.5-129	7	W	+0.78
2026-10-2610/26	LAK @ NYR	AVOID	u5.5-105	9	L	-1.00
2026-10-2610/26	TOR @ CGY	AVOID	u6.5+101	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-2610/26	DET @ EDM	AVOID	u6.5+107	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-2510/25	COL @ NSH	Top total	o6.5-110	8	W	+0.91
2026-10-2510/25	MIN @ VAN	Top P(7+) · P(7+) 50%+	o6.5-115	6	L	-1.00
2026-10-2510/25	FLA @ CHI	AVOID	u6.5-125	5	W	+0.80
2026-10-2510/25	NYI @ DAL	AVOID	u5.5-132	9	L	-1.00
2026-10-2510/25	MTL @ WPG	AVOID	u5.5+108	3	W	+1.08
2026-10-2510/25	COL @ NSH	AVOID	u6.5-110	8	L	-1.00
2026-10-2510/25	MIN @ VAN	AVOID	u6.5-107	6	W	+0.93
2026-10-2410/24	BUF @ WSH	Top total · Top P(7+) · P(7+) 50%+	o6.5-129	7	W	+0.78
2026-10-2410/24	ANA @ PHI	AVOID	u5.5+104	9	L	-1.00
2026-10-2410/24	LAK @ NJD	AVOID	u5.5+100	4	W	+1.00
2026-10-2410/24	SJS @ BOS	AVOID	u6.5-111	10	L	-1.00
2026-10-2410/24	NYR @ OTT	AVOID	u6.5-133	11	L	-1.00
2026-10-2410/24	VGK @ CBJ	AVOID	u6.5-129	3	W	+0.78
2026-10-2410/24	CAR @ STL	AVOID	u6.5-129	4	W	+0.78
2026-10-2410/24	TOR @ EDM	AVOID	u6.5+133	9	L	-1.00
2026-10-2410/24	DET @ CGY	AVOID	u5.5+115	5	W	+1.15
2026-10-2410/24	MIN @ SEA	AVOID	u6.5-128	6	W	+0.78
2026-10-2310/23	TBL @ COL	Top total · Top P(7+)	o6.5-102	9	W	+0.98
2026-10-2310/23	MTL @ CHI	AVOID	u6.5-117	5	W	+0.85
2026-10-2310/23	TBL @ COL	AVOID	u6.5-120	9	L	-1.00
2026-10-2210/22	UTA @ SEA	Top total · P(7+) 50%+	o6.5-115	8	W	+0.87
2026-10-2210/22	CAR @ EDM	Top P(7+) · P(7+) 50%+	o6.5-131	11	W	+0.76
2026-10-2210/22	FLA @ PIT	P(7+) 50%+	o6.5-125	4	L	-1.00
2026-10-2210/22	NSH @ BOS	AVOID	u6.5-119	6	W	+0.84
2026-10-2210/22	NYR @ TOR	AVOID	u6.5-115	9	L	-1.00
2026-10-2210/22	SJS @ OTT	AVOID	u6.5-118	8	L	-1.00
2026-10-2210/22	ANA @ NJD	AVOID	u6.5+104	5	W	+1.04
2026-10-2210/22	LAK @ NYI	AVOID	u5.5-116	5	W	+0.86
2026-10-2210/22	VGK @ STL	AVOID	u6-109	8	L	-1.00
2026-10-2210/22	WPG @ DAL	AVOID	u5.5-112	5	W	+0.89
2026-10-2210/22	MIN @ CGY	AVOID	u6.5-130	3	W	+0.77
2026-10-2210/22	UTA @ SEA	AVOID	u6.5-106	8	L	-1.00
2026-10-2210/22	DET @ VAN	AVOID	u6.5-118	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-2110/21	FLA @ OTT	Top total · Top P(7+)	o5.5-109	6	W	+0.92
2026-10-2110/21	PHI @ BUF	AVOID	u6.5-134	4	W	+0.75
2026-10-2110/21	FLA @ OTT	AVOID	u5.5-111	6	L	-1.00
2026-10-2010/20	CAR @ VAN	Top total	o6.5-102	9	W	+0.98
2026-10-2010/20	DET @ SEA	Top P(7+) · P(7+) 50%+	o6.5-105	7	W	+0.95
2026-10-2010/20	SJS @ MTL	AVOID	u6.5+103	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-2010/20	COL @ NJD	AVOID	u6.5-115	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-2010/20	ANA @ NYI	AVOID	u5.5+108	5	W	+1.08
2026-10-2010/20	LAK @ WSH	AVOID	u5.5-106	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-2010/20	TOR @ CBJ	AVOID	u6.5-118	8	L	-1.00
2026-10-2010/20	WPG @ STL	AVOID	u5.5+104	3	W	+1.04
2026-10-2010/20	BOS @ DAL	AVOID	u5.5-105	5	W	+0.95
2026-10-2010/20	MIN @ EDM	AVOID	u6.5-121	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-2010/20	CAR @ VAN	AVOID	u6.5-120	9	L	-1.00
2026-10-2010/20	TBL @ VGK	AVOID	u6.5-134	8	L	-1.00
2026-10-1910/19	PIT @ UTA	Top total · Top P(7+) · P(7+) 50%+	o6.5-141	9	W	+0.71
2026-10-1910/19	ANA @ NYR	AVOID	u6.5-109	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-1910/19	COL @ PHI	AVOID	u6-137	5	W	+0.73
2026-10-1910/19	SJS @ TOR	AVOID	u6.5+120	4	W	+1.20
2026-10-1810/18	CBJ @ MIN	Top total · Top P(7+)	o6.5-100	3	L	-1.00
2026-10-1810/18	CBJ @ MIN	AVOID	u6.5-121	3	W	+0.83
2026-10-1810/18	CAR @ CGY	AVOID	u6.5-123	5	W	+0.81
2026-10-1710/17	VAN @ TBL	Top total	o6.5-122	6	L	-1.00
2026-10-1710/17	EDM @ UTA	Top P(7+) · P(7+) 50%+	o6.5-120	8	W	+0.83
2026-10-1710/17	CAR @ WPG	AVOID	u6.5-128	5	W	+0.78
2026-10-1710/17	VAN @ TBL	AVOID	u6.5+103	6	W	+1.03
2026-10-1710/17	SEA @ FLA	AVOID	u6.5-136	11	L	-1.00
2026-10-1710/17	NYI @ TOR	AVOID	u6.5-124	5	W	+0.81
2026-10-1710/17	BUF @ MTL	AVOID	u6.5-110	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-1710/17	SJS @ DET	AVOID	u6.5-119	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-1710/17	OTT @ PHI	AVOID	u5.5-119	4	W	+0.84
2026-10-1710/17	NYR @ CBJ	AVOID	u6.5-127	1	W	+0.79
2026-10-1710/17	DAL @ CHI	AVOID	u5.5+114	4	W	+1.14
2026-10-1710/17	STL @ NSH	AVOID	u5.5+115	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-1710/17	BOS @ LAK	AVOID	u5.5+102	5	W	+1.02
2026-10-1710/17	PIT @ VGK	AVOID	u6.5+103	8	L	-1.00
2026-10-1610/16	PIT @ COL	Top total · Top P(7+) · P(7+) 50%+	o6.5-130	7	W	+0.77
2026-10-1610/16	BOS @ ANA	P(7+) 50%+	o6.5-107	6	L	-1.00
2026-10-1610/16	PIT @ COL	AVOID	u6.5+110	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-1510/15	UTA @ EDM	Top total · Top P(7+) · P(7+) 50%+	o6.5-123	6	L	-1.00
2026-10-1510/15	BUF @ TOR	AVOID	u6.5+111	9	L	-1.00
2026-10-1510/15	NYI @ OTT	AVOID	u5.5-111	3	W	+0.90
2026-10-1510/15	SEA @ TBL	AVOID	u6.5-126	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-1510/15	VAN @ FLA	AVOID	u6.5-129	5	W	+0.78
2026-10-1510/15	NYR @ NJD	AVOID	u6.5-129	8	L	-1.00
2026-10-1510/15	PHI @ DET	AVOID	u5.5-100	3	W	+1.00
2026-10-1510/15	WPG @ CHI	AVOID	u6.5-132	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-1510/15	SJS @ NSH	AVOID	u6.5-121	5	W	+0.83
2026-10-1510/15	STL @ MIN	AVOID	u5.5+115	9	L	-1.00
2026-10-1510/15	CGY @ VGK	AVOID	u6.5-130	8	L	-1.00
2026-10-1410/14	MTL @ WSH	Top total · Top P(7+)	o6.5-118	9	W	+0.85
2026-10-1410/14	DAL @ COL	AVOID	u5.5-231	5	W	+0.43
2026-10-1310/13	TOR @ UTA	Top total · Top P(7+) · P(7+) 50%+	o6.5-118	9	W	+0.85
2026-10-1310/13	WSH @ CAR	P(7+) 50%+	o6.5-101	6	L	-1.00
2026-10-1310/13	NJD @ DET	AVOID	u6.5-134	9	L	-1.00
2026-10-1310/13	FLA @ CBJ	AVOID	u6-103	10	L	-1.00
2026-10-1310/13	BUF @ MTL	AVOID	u6.5-116	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-1310/13	SEA @ PHI	AVOID	u5.5-125	5	W	+0.80
2026-10-1310/13	TBL @ NYR	AVOID	u5.5-103	5	W	+0.97
2026-10-1310/13	STL @ OTT	AVOID	u5.5+100	9	L	-1.00
2026-10-1310/13	VAN @ NYI	AVOID	u6+101	5	W	+1.01
2026-10-1310/13	PIT @ CHI	AVOID	u6.5+102	8	L	-1.00
2026-10-1310/13	MIN @ WPG	AVOID	u6.5-130	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-1310/13	COL @ DAL	AVOID	u5.5-103	5	W	+0.97
2026-10-1310/13	VGK @ NSH	AVOID	u6.5-130	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-1310/13	TOR @ UTA	AVOID	u6.5-104	9	L	-1.00
2026-10-1310/13	CGY @ ANA	AVOID	u6.5-131	6	W	+0.76
2026-10-1310/13	EDM @ LAK	AVOID	u6.5-115	5	W	+0.87
2026-10-1310/13	BOS @ SJS	AVOID	u6.5-124	9	L	-1.00
2026-10-1210/12	OTT @ NJD	Top total	o5.5-127	5	L	-1.00
2026-10-1210/12	FLA @ BUF	Top P(7+)	o6-115	8	W	+0.87
2026-10-1210/12	FLA @ BUF	AVOID	u6-104	8	L	-1.00
2026-10-1210/12	OTT @ NJD	AVOID	u5.5+105	5	W	+1.05
2026-10-1210/12	VGK @ MIN	AVOID	u6+109	6	P	+0.00
2026-10-1110/11	SEA @ WSH	Top total · Top P(7+) · P(7+) 50%+	o6.5-102	8	W	+0.98
2026-10-1110/11	SEA @ WSH	AVOID	u6.5-120	8	L	-1.00
2026-10-1110/11	VAN @ NYR	AVOID	u6.5-134	8	L	-1.00
2026-10-1110/11	CAR @ PHI	AVOID	u5.5-104	5	W	+0.96
2026-10-1010/10	TOR @ COL	Top total	o6.5-127	9	W	+0.79
2026-10-1010/10	EDM @ SJS	Top P(7+)	o6.5-134	4	L	-1.00
2026-10-1010/10	PHI @ BOS	AVOID	u5.5-106	6	L	-1.00
2026-10-1010/10	VAN @ NJD	AVOID	u6.5-118	5	W	+0.85
2026-10-1010/10	EDM @ SJS	AVOID	u6.5+112	4	W	+1.12
2026-10-1010/10	MIN @ FLA	AVOID	u5.5+105	5	W	+1.05
2026-10-1010/10	UTA @ BUF	AVOID	u6.5-121	5	W	+0.83
2026-10-1010/10	DET @ MTL	AVOID	u6.5-120	1	W	+0.83
2026-10-1010/10	NSH @ OTT	AVOID	u6+101	5	W	+1.01
2026-10-1010/10	DAL @ PIT	AVOID	u6.5-120	3	W	+0.83
2026-10-1010/10	CAR @ CHI	AVOID	u5.5-123	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-1010/10	CBJ @ STL	AVOID	u6+100	8	L	-1.00
2026-10-1010/10	TOR @ COL	AVOID	u6.5+105	9	L	-1.00
2026-10-1010/10	TBL @ NYI	AVOID	u5.5-111	8	L	-1.00
2026-10-1010/10	ANA @ CGY	AVOID	u6.5-114	6	W	+0.88
2026-10-1010/10	LAK @ VGK	AVOID	u6.5-116	3	W	+0.86
2026-10-0910/09	PIT @ CBJ	Top total · Top P(7+) · P(7+) 50%+	o6.5-129	5	L	-1.00
2026-10-0910/09	ANA @ WPG	P(7+) 50%+	o6.5-100	6	L	-1.00
2026-10-0910/09	SEA @ DET	AVOID	u6+100	9	L	-1.00
2026-10-0910/09	NYR @ WSH	AVOID	u5.5-102	4	W	+0.98
2026-10-0910/09	ANA @ WPG	AVOID	u6.5-119	6	W	+0.84
2026-10-0810/08	VAN @ CAR	Top total · Top P(7+)	o6.5-103	9	W	+0.97
2026-10-0810/08	UTA @ BOS	AVOID	u6.5-136	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-0810/08	DAL @ BUF	AVOID	u6.5-118	4	W	+0.85
2026-10-0810/08	NSH @ MTL	AVOID	u6.5-111	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-0810/08	PHI @ OTT	AVOID	u5.5-106	3	W	+0.94
2026-10-0810/08	MIN @ TBL	AVOID	u6.5-131	5	W	+0.76
2026-10-0810/08	VAN @ CAR	AVOID	u6.5-118	9	L	-1.00
2026-10-0810/08	CHI @ NYI	AVOID	u5.5+109	5	W	+1.09
2026-10-0810/08	SJS @ STL	AVOID	u5.5+103	5	W	+1.03
2026-10-0810/08	COL @ CGY	AVOID	u6.5-126	10	L	-1.00
2026-10-0810/08	TOR @ VGK	AVOID	u6.5+104	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-0710/07	COL @ WPG	Top total · Top P(7+) · P(7+) 50%+	o6.5-109	5	L	-1.00
2026-10-0710/07	PIT @ WSH	P(7+) 50%+	o6.5-112	8	W	+0.89
2026-10-0710/07	EDM @ ANA	P(7+) 50%+	o6.5-145	7	W	+0.69
2026-10-0710/07	COL @ WPG	AVOID	u6.5-110	5	W	+0.91
2026-10-0610/06	OTT @ DET	Top total · Top P(7+)	o6.5+102	8	W	+1.02
2026-10-0610/06	NSH @ TOR	AVOID	u6+102	9	L	-1.00
2026-10-0610/06	CAR @ MTL	AVOID	u6.5-132	10	L	-1.00
2026-10-0610/06	OTT @ DET	AVOID	u6.5-122	8	L	-1.00
2026-10-0610/06	UTA @ NJD	AVOID	u6.5-118	8	L	-1.00
2026-10-0610/06	MIN @ BUF	AVOID	u6.5-121	5	W	+0.83
2026-10-0610/06	NYI @ NYR	AVOID	u5.5-101	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-0610/06	STL @ CHI	AVOID	u5.5-100	6	L	-1.00
2026-10-0610/06	VGK @ SEA	AVOID	u6.5-119	8	L	-1.00
2026-10-0610/06	FLA @ LAK	AVOID	u5.5+110	3	W	+1.10
2026-10-0510/05	WPG @ PIT	Top total · Top P(7+)	o6.5-105	5	L	-1.00
2026-10-0510/05	PHI @ TBL	AVOID	u5.5+106	5	W	+1.06
2026-10-0510/05	OTT @ BOS	AVOID	u5.5-101	5	W	+0.99
2026-10-0510/05	WPG @ PIT	AVOID	u6.5-114	5	W	+0.88
2026-10-0510/05	SJS @ DAL	AVOID	u6.5-120	5	W	+0.83
2026-10-0410/04	FLA @ ANA	Top total · Top P(7+)	o6.5-118	5	L	-1.00
2026-10-0410/04	WPG @ DET	AVOID	u5.5-100	5	W	+1.00
2026-10-0410/04	UTA @ NYR	AVOID	u5.5-100	6	L	-1.00
2026-10-0410/04	CGY @ SEA	AVOID	u5.5-101	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-0410/04	VGK @ VAN	AVOID	u6.5-125	5	W	+0.80
2026-10-0310/03	STL @ COL	Top total · Top P(7+)	o6.5-101	7	W	+0.99
2026-10-0310/03	CHI @ BUF	AVOID	u6.5-116	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-0310/03	OTT @ TOR	AVOID	u6.5-127	5	W	+0.79
2026-10-0310/03	WSH @ TBL	AVOID	u6.5-126	4	W	+0.79
2026-10-0310/03	CAR @ PHI	AVOID	u5.5+110	5	W	+1.10
2026-10-0310/03	SEA @ EDM	AVOID	u6.5+101	4	W	+1.01
2026-10-0310/03	NJD @ NYI	AVOID	u5.5+110	6	L	-1.00
2026-10-0310/03	DAL @ NSH	AVOID	u6.5-132	3	W	+0.76
2026-10-0310/03	BOS @ MIN	AVOID	u6.5-124	5	W	+0.81
2026-10-0310/03	STL @ COL	AVOID	u6.5-121	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-0310/03	CGY @ VAN	AVOID	u6.5-126	5	W	+0.79
2026-10-0310/03	LAK @ SJS	AVOID	u6.5-125	9	L	-1.00
2026-10-0210/02	ANA @ VGK	Top total · Top P(7+)	o6.5-127	7	W	+0.79
2026-10-0210/02	NYR @ DET	AVOID	u5.5+110	2	W	+1.10
2026-10-0210/02	WSH @ CAR	AVOID	u6.5-130	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-0210/02	BOS @ WPG	AVOID	u5.5+105	7	L	-1.00
2026-10-0210/02	STL @ DAL	AVOID	u5.5+112	4	W	+1.12
2026-10-0210/02	ANA @ VGK	AVOID	u6.5+107	7	L	-1.00

Closing information only. A flagged pick counts if the game was still flagged at the last model run before puck drop. Everything is graded at the closing consensus total and price, 1 unit per pick.
Top total / Top P(7+): each day's single highest game, flagged or not. P(7+) over 50%: every such game.
AVOID: every AVOID game; its units are for betting the under at the closing under price.
Retroactive days are left out of everything here.

Projection accuracy

Games settled

194

8 retroactive

Avg projected total

6.13

actual 6.27

Model P(7+)

46%

actual 7+ rate 46%

Team goals error

1.37

avg miss per team

By projected total

Projected	Games	Proj	Actual	Diff	Model 7+	Actual 7+
under 5.5	4	5.30	4.75	-0.55	40%	0%
5.5 – 6.0	71	5.82	6.00	+0.18	43%	42%
6.0 – 6.5	88	6.23	6.22	-0.01	46%	45%
6.5+	31	6.66	7.26	+0.60	50%	65%

By call

Call	Games	Proj	Actual	Diff	Model 7+	Actual 7+
🔨 SLAM	15	6.58	7.47	+0.89	52%	60%
1U	3	6.29	5.67	-0.63	49%	33%
PASS	3	6.32	5.33	-0.99	49%	33%
AVOID	173	6.08	6.20	+0.12	45%	46%

P(7+) calibration

Backtest 2023-26This season

What this chart shows

Each dot is a group of games with a similar P(7+). It compares what the model predicted with what actually happened.

On the line: the model's percentages are about right.
Above the line: more games went 7+ than the model expected.
Below the line: fewer games went 7+ than the model expected.

Circles are past seasons and squares are this season. This season's dots will jump around until there are a lot more games, so don't read much into them yet.

Model P(7+)	Backtest games	Model	Went 7+	This season	Model	Went 7+
under 40%	617	38%	39%	7	39%	0%
40%–45%	1,757	43%	44%	80	43%	46%
45%–50%	1,276	47%	46%	84	47%	46%
50%+	286	52%	56%	23	52%	61%

This season's groups appear on the chart once they have 10+ games; smaller ones are in the table only.

The test that matters is Model 7+ vs Actual 7+: if the model is calibrated they match, higher projection bands should score more, and SLAM should score more than 1U, PASS and AVOID.
Uses each game's last projection and call before puck drop. Single-game misses are big in hockey, so judge this after a few hundred games, not a few nights.

Backtest · frozen rule, 2020+ data only

Season	Bets at open	ROI at open	Bets at close	ROI at close
2021-22	428	-1.8%	434	+0.2%
2022-23	–	–	229	+2.0%
2023-24	4	-50.0%	9	-25.0%
2024-25	44	+16.5%	44	+22.5%
2025-26	109	+9.1%	124	+5.7%
2021–26	585	+1.3%	840	+2.4%

Open = betting the first line books post; close = the final line before puck drop. Counts differ because lines move into or out of 6 / 6.5 during the day.
53–55% wins; uncertainty about ±3–4% ROI, so the past edge is small and not proven. Line shopping added about +2.2 pts on the same picks. Goalie ratings are calibrated to match how goalies actually play.
Includes team skating speed (fitted on these same seasons, so its small gain is slightly optimistic). 2023-24 had very few flags, so its ROI is mostly noise.
No 2022-23 opening lines in the data. With pre-2020 data the same rule was about break-even (2016–21).

How it works

Each team's goals are projected separately for 5-on-5 (expected goals + actual goals for/against per 60) and the power play (PP and PK efficiency × penalties drawn and taken), plus other situations. The opposing starting goalie's goals saved above expected scales goals allowed, back-to-backs cut the tired team's scoring ~8% (opponent +6.5%), and team skating speed nudges fast teams up (+2% per step) and their opponents down (−1.7%). Data from the 2020-21 season onward only (MoneyPuck, NHL API, DailyFaceoff, Action Network). Runs on GitHub Actions at 12:01 AM, every hour from 11:17 AM to 10:17 PM ET, and 15 minutes before each game.

Projected goals bar: Each team's projected goals on a 0–4.5 scale. The tick marks the high-scoring cutoff; a solid bar means past it.
P(7+): Model's chance of 7+ total goals, from the projected total and how evenly matched the teams are (close games get more overtime, shootout and empty-net goals): wins an over 6.5 and an over 6 (exactly 6 pushes an over 6). NHL average ≈ 45%.
OVER FLAG: Both teams past the cutoff and the line is 6 or 6.5. These are the picks that count in the record.
Goalie badges: ✓ Confirmed / Likely / Projected starter, from DailyFaceoff, refreshed every run. "Changed" = different from the starter the projection used.
B2B: Team played yesterday: its projected scoring is cut ~8% and its opponent's raised ~6.5%.
Injuries & lineups: ESPN's injury list plus DailyFaceoff's projected lineups checked against the official NHL roster. Players who are out, on IR, suspended, or missing from tonight's lineup (scratch) are replaced by a replacement-level skater. GF = change to his team's scoring, GA = change to goals against (shown for whichever is bigger; hover for both). Day-to-day players are shown but not adjusted.
Breakdown: Each team's goals = (5-on-5 + power play + other situations) × opposing-goalie × back-to-back × team speed × injury adjustments. A + goalie number means the opposing goalie has been below average.
Team speed (Spd): How often a team's skaters hit 20+ mph (NHL EDGE), last season vs the league. Fast teams score a little more and allow a little less, so it shifts team projections but barely changes totals.

Today's slate

Yesterday's results

Paper trading record

Flagged overs

Record by type

Projection accuracy

By projected total

By call

P(7+) calibration

Archive

Backtest · frozen rule, 2020+ data only

How it works