Monday, October 26, 2026

3 games · 0 flags · 3 of 3 went over the line · avg 7.7 goals (projected 6.1) · calls: SLAM – · 1U – · PASS – · AVOID 0 of 3 stayed under

Breakdown (for scoring):greatgoodmidbadtrash
TeamResultGoaliesProjection breakdown
TeamGProjTotal goalsProj totalP(7+)LinePickGoalie5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
DET#18 OFF / #10 DEF42.97●7O 6.56.4349%6.5 → 6.59:30 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over		M. Postava ✓ OK 241.820.64+2.4%0.51–-3.9%+1.3%
EDM#6 OFF / #17 DEF33.46●T. Jarry ✓ Trash 82.010.78–0.51–+4.4%+0.9%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
DET1.90#25 of 321.95#11 of 321.82goals0.66#5 of 320.54#10 of 320.64goals
EDM2.10#13 of 321.95#12 of 322.01goals0.71#3 of 320.60#21 of 320.78goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-gamePlayerIf outPre-game
DETAlex DeBrincat R-5.3%PlaysMoritz Seider D+1.4%Plays
Lucas Raymond L-3.8%PlaysLucas Raymond L+1.3%Plays
Dylan Larkin C-3.4%PlaysAlex DeBrincat R+1.3%Plays
Viktor Arvidsson L-1.2%PlaysEmmitt Finnie C+0.8%Plays
Moritz Seider D-1.1%PlaysDylan Larkin C+0.7%Plays
EDMConnor McDavid C-8.2%PlaysLeon Draisaitl C+1.5%Plays
Leon Draisaitl C-6.9%PlaysConnor McDavid C+1.5%Plays
Evan Bouchard D-4.9%PlaysEvan Bouchard D+1.4%Plays
Zach Hyman L-3.0%PlaysVasily Podkolzin R+1.2%Plays
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C-1.8%PlaysZach Hyman L+0.7%Plays

Also out: EDM: Mattias Ekholm -0.6% attack, +0.3% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.45 → 6.43)
  • 12:01 AM 6.45 first run
  • 2:23 AM 6.45 DET goalie John Gibson: Projected → Likely; EDM goalie Tristan Jarry: Projected → Likely; Line 6.5 o-119 → 6.5 o-120
  • 5:38 AM 6.45 no change
  • 11:18 AM 6.44 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 6.5 o-120 → 6.5 o-118
  • 12:17 PM 6.44 Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-120
  • 1:17 PM 6.42 -0.03Injuries / lineup: Isaac Howard (EDM) back in, Trent Frederic (EDM) back in -0.03; EDM goalie Tristan Jarry: Likely → Confirmed; EDM lineup: Bob Stauffer Oct 26 12:49 PM; Line 6.5 o-120 → 6.5 o-125
  • 2:17 PM 6.43 +0.01DET goalie: John Gibson → Michal Postava +0.01; Line 6.5 o-125 → 6.5 o-131
  • 3:17 PM 6.43 no change
  • 4:17 PM 6.43 Line 6.5 o-131 → 6.5 o-130
  • 4:35 PM 6.43 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.43 no change
  • 6:17 PM 6.43 Line 6.5 o-130 → 6.5 o-134
  • 6:45 PM 6.43 no change
  • 7:17 PM 6.43 no change
  • 8:17 PM 6.43 Line 6.5 o-134 → 6.5 o-131
  • 8:33 PM 6.43 no change
  • 9:17 PM 6.43 Line 6.5 o-131 → 6.5 o-128

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: DET projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (DET 2.97). The 6.43 total looks high, but most of it comes from EDM; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, DET is trash (1.82) and EDM is mid (2.01); on the power play, DET is good (0.64) and EDM is great (0.78). DET faces Tristan Jarry, a Trash goalie, grade 8 (+2.4%); EDM faces Michal Postava, an OK goalie, grade 24 (+0.0%). Other factors: DET's team speed costs 3.9%; EDM's team speed adds 4.4%. DET 2.97: 0.17 goals below what an average team would score (3.13). Pushing it up: Tristan Jarry in goal +0.07 (a Trash goalie, grade 8, +2.4%); power play +0.07 (its power play ranks #5, EDM's penalty kill and penalty habits #10); injuries +0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.3%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.23 (its attack ranks #25 of 32, EDM's defense #11); team speed -0.12 (it skates slower than EDM, -3.9%). EDM 3.46: 0.33 goals above what an average team would score (3.13). Pushing it up: power play +0.20 (its power play ranks #3, DET's penalty kill and penalty habits #21); team speed +0.15 (it skates faster than DET, +4.4%); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.9%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.04 (its attack ranks #13 of 32, DET's defense #12). The model projects 6.43 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 49% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (DET 4, EDM 3), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.
TOR#17 OFF / #27 DEF23.23●7O 6.56.0845%6.5 → 6.58:30 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over		S. Bobrovsky ✓ Mid 412.180.67-4.0%0.51–+2.3%-2.1%
CGY#29 OFF / #26 DEF52.86●D. Cooley ✓ Good 711.930.55-1.4%0.51–-2.9%-0.2%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
TOR2.05#17 of 322.17#24 of 322.18goals0.61#12 of 320.60#22 of 320.67goals
CGY1.80#29 of 322.19#27 of 321.93goals0.46#29 of 320.65#28 of 320.55goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-gamePlayerIf outPre-game
TORWilliam Nylander R-4.7%PlaysDarren Raddysh D+0.6%Plays
Auston Matthews C-4.2%PlaysKirill Marchenko R+0.4%Plays
John Tavares C-2.8%OUT · IRJack Roslovic C+0.4%Plays
Kirill Marchenko R-1.7%PlaysOliver Ekman-Larsson D+0.4%Plays
Darren Raddysh D-1.4%PlaysNick Paul L+0.4%Plays
CGYMatt Coronato R-1.5%PlaysMorgan Frost C+0.8%Plays
Morgan Frost C-1.3%PlaysMatt Coronato R+0.4%Plays
Jonathan Huberdeau L-0.5%OUT · IRAdam Klapka R+0.4%Plays
Joel Farabee L-0.5%PlaysJoel Hanley D+0.4%OUT · scratch
Ryan Strome C-0.4%PlaysRyan Strome C+0.4%Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.08 → 6.08)
  • 12:01 AM 6.08 first run
  • 2:23 AM 6.08 TOR goalie Sergei Bobrovsky: Projected → Likely; CGY goalie Devin Cooley: Projected → Likely; Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-119
  • 5:38 AM 6.08 Line 6.5 o-119 → 6.5 o-118
  • 11:18 AM 6.08 -0.01rounding; Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-120
  • 12:17 PM 6.08 CGY goalie Devin Cooley: Likely → Confirmed
  • 1:17 PM 6.08 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Mikael Backlund (CGY) back in +0.01; TOR goalie Sergei Bobrovsky: Likely → Confirmed; TOR lineup: David Alter Oct 26 12:50 PM; Mikael Backlund (CGY) day-to-day; CGY lineup: Projected Oct 26 12:46 PM
  • 2:17 PM 6.08 no change
  • 3:17 PM 6.08 no change
  • 4:17 PM 6.08 no change
  • 4:35 PM 6.08 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.08 no change
  • 6:17 PM 6.08 no change
  • 6:45 PM 6.08 no change
  • 7:17 PM 6.08 no change
  • 8:17 PM 6.08 CGY lineup: Pat Steinberg Oct 26 8:15 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: CGY projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (CGY 2.86). The 6.08 total looks high, but most of it comes from TOR; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, TOR is good (2.18) and CGY is bad (1.93); on the power play, TOR is great (0.67) and CGY is mid (0.55). TOR faces Devin Cooley, a Good goalie, grade 71 (-4.0%); CGY faces Sergei Bobrovsky, a Mid goalie, grade 41 (-1.4%). Other factors: TOR's team speed adds 2.3%; injuries cost TOR 2.1%; CGY's team speed costs 2.9%. TOR 3.23: 0.09 goals above what an average team would score (3.13). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.13 (its attack ranks #17 of 32, CGY's defense #24); power play +0.09 (its power play ranks #12, CGY's penalty kill and penalty habits #22); team speed +0.07 (it skates faster than CGY, +2.3%). Holding it back: Devin Cooley in goal -0.14 (a Good goalie, grade 71, -4.0%); injuries -0.07 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.1%). CGY 2.86: 0.28 goals below what an average team would score (3.13). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.12 (its attack ranks #29 of 32, TOR's defense #27); team speed -0.09 (it skates slower than TOR, -2.9%); Sergei Bobrovsky in goal -0.04 (a Mid goalie, grade 41, -1.4%); power play -0.03 (its power play ranks #29, TOR's penalty kill and penalty habits #28). The model projects 6.08 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (TOR 2, CGY 5), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.
LAK#28 OFF / #15 DEF62.71●9O 5.55.7041%5.5 → 5.57:00 PM ET
AVOID ⚠ lineup
✗ went over		D. Kuemper ✓ Mid 481.790.44–0.51–+0.4%-1.5%
NYR#22 OFF / #12 DEF32.98●J. Reimer ✓ OK 241.880.63-2.1%0.51–-0.7%+1.6%
⚠ Lineup change since 12:01 AM: Quinton Byfield now Day-to-day (was OUT, seen 1:17 PM) · LAK ±1.2% · projection 5.67 → 5.70
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
LAK1.81#27 of 322.02#14 of 321.79goals0.45#30 of 320.54#9 of 320.44goals
NYR1.97#19 of 321.94#10 of 321.88goals0.59#14 of 320.59#19 of 320.63goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-gamePlayerIf outPre-game
LAKArtemi Panarin L-4.1%PlaysBrandt Clarke D+1.7%Plays
Adrian Kempe R-3.5%PlaysArtemi Panarin L+1.1%Plays
⚠ Quinton Byfield R-1.2%Day-to-daywas OUTAdrian Kempe R+1.1%Plays
Kevin Fiala L-1.1%OUT · IRAlex Laferriere R+0.9%Plays
Alex Laferriere R-0.9%PlaysDrew Doughty D+0.8%Plays
NYRMika Zibanejad C-3.1%PlaysAlexis Lafrenière L+0.8%Plays
Alexis Lafrenière L-2.6%PlaysPavel Dorofeyev R+0.8%Plays
J.T. Miller C-2.4%PlaysAdam Fox D+0.7%Plays
Adam Fox D-2.1%PlaysGabe Perreault R+0.5%Plays
Pavel Dorofeyev R-1.6%PlaysOliver Bjorkstrand R+0.4%Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (5.67 → 5.70)
  • 12:01 AM 5.67 first run
  • 2:23 AM 5.67 LAK goalie Darcy Kuemper: Projected → Likely; NYR goalie Dylan Garand: Projected → Likely; Line 5.5 o-131 → 5.5 o-128
  • 5:38 AM 5.67 no change
  • 11:18 AM 5.69 +0.02NYR goalie: Dylan Garand → James Reimer +0.03; Injuries / lineup: Mats Zuccarello (LAK) out -0.01; Line 5.5 o-128 → 5.5 o-130
  • 12:17 PM 5.69 NYR lineup: Vince Mercogliano Oct 26 11:58 AM; Line 5.5 o-130 → 5.5 o-132
  • 1:17 PM 5.70 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Quinton Byfield (LAK) back in +0.01; Quinton Byfield (LAK) day-to-day; LAK lineup: Zach Dooley Oct 26 12:39 PM; Line 5.5 o-132 → 5.5 o-130
  • 2:17 PM 5.70 Line 5.5 o-130 → 5.5 o-131
  • 3:17 PM 5.70 no change
  • 4:17 PM 5.70 no change
  • 4:35 PM 5.70 no change
  • 5:17 PM 5.70 Line 5.5 o-131 → 5.5 o-133
  • 6:17 PM 5.70 Line 5.5 o-133 → 5.5 o-132
  • 6:45 PM 5.70 LAK goalie Darcy Kuemper: Likely → Confirmed; LAK lineup: Zach Dooley Oct 26 6:38 PM; NYR lineup: Mollie Walker Oct 26 6:37 PM; Line 5.5 o-132 → 5.5 o-116

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: LAK and NYR project under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (LAK 2.71, NYR 2.98); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, LAK is trash (1.79) and NYR is bad (1.88); on the power play, LAK is trash (0.44) and NYR is good (0.63). LAK faces James Reimer, an OK goalie, grade 24 (+0.0%); NYR faces Darcy Kuemper, a Mid goalie, grade 48 (-2.1%). Other factors: injuries cost LAK 1.5%; injuries help NYR 1.6%. LAK 2.71: 0.42 goals below what an average team would score (3.13). Pushing it up: team speed +0.01 (it skates faster than NYR, +0.4%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.25 (its attack ranks #27 of 32, NYR's defense #14); power play -0.14 (its power play ranks #30, NYR's penalty kill and penalty habits #9); injuries -0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.5%). NYR 2.98: 0.15 goals below what an average team would score (3.13). Pushing it up: power play +0.05 (its power play ranks #14, LAK's penalty kill and penalty habits #19); injuries +0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.6%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.17 (its attack ranks #19 of 32, LAK's defense #10); Darcy Kuemper in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 48, -2.1%); team speed -0.02 (it skates slower than LAK, -0.7%). The model projects 5.70 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 41% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 9 goals (LAK 6, NYR 3), so it went over 5.5 and the call was wrong.
9:30 PM ETAVOID
O 6.5 ✗ went over
DET#18 OFF / #10 DEF42.97●
M. Postava ✓ OK 24
EDM#6 OFF / #17 DEF33.46●
T. Jarry ✓ Trash 8
7 goals · proj 6.43 · P(7+) 49%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
DET1.820.64+2.4%0.51–-3.9%+1.3%
EDM2.010.78–0.51–+4.4%+0.9%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
DET1.90#25 of 321.95#11 of 321.82goals
EDM2.10#13 of 321.95#12 of 322.01goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
DET0.66#5 of 320.54#10 of 320.64goals
EDM0.71#3 of 320.60#21 of 320.78goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPre-game
DET
Alex DeBrincat R-5.3%Plays
Lucas Raymond L-3.8%Plays
Dylan Larkin C-3.4%Plays
Viktor Arvidsson L-1.2%Plays
Moritz Seider D-1.1%Plays
EDM
Connor McDavid C-8.2%Plays
Leon Draisaitl C-6.9%Plays
Evan Bouchard D-4.9%Plays
Zach Hyman L-3.0%Plays
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C-1.8%Plays
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-game
DET
Moritz Seider D+1.4%Plays
Lucas Raymond L+1.3%Plays
Alex DeBrincat R+1.3%Plays
Emmitt Finnie C+0.8%Plays
Dylan Larkin C+0.7%Plays
EDM
Leon Draisaitl C+1.5%Plays
Connor McDavid C+1.5%Plays
Evan Bouchard D+1.4%Plays
Vasily Podkolzin R+1.2%Plays
Zach Hyman L+0.7%Plays

Also out: EDM: Mattias Ekholm -0.6% attack, +0.3% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.45 → 6.43)
  • 12:01 AM 6.45 first run
  • 2:23 AM 6.45 DET goalie John Gibson: Projected → Likely; EDM goalie Tristan Jarry: Projected → Likely; Line 6.5 o-119 → 6.5 o-120
  • 5:38 AM 6.45 no change
  • 11:18 AM 6.44 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 6.5 o-120 → 6.5 o-118
  • 12:17 PM 6.44 Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-120
  • 1:17 PM 6.42 -0.03Injuries / lineup: Isaac Howard (EDM) back in, Trent Frederic (EDM) back in -0.03; EDM goalie Tristan Jarry: Likely → Confirmed; EDM lineup: Bob Stauffer Oct 26 12:49 PM; Line 6.5 o-120 → 6.5 o-125
  • 2:17 PM 6.43 +0.01DET goalie: John Gibson → Michal Postava +0.01; Line 6.5 o-125 → 6.5 o-131
  • 3:17 PM 6.43 no change
  • 4:17 PM 6.43 Line 6.5 o-131 → 6.5 o-130
  • 4:35 PM 6.43 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.43 no change
  • 6:17 PM 6.43 Line 6.5 o-130 → 6.5 o-134
  • 6:45 PM 6.43 no change
  • 7:17 PM 6.43 no change
  • 8:17 PM 6.43 Line 6.5 o-134 → 6.5 o-131
  • 8:33 PM 6.43 no change
  • 9:17 PM 6.43 Line 6.5 o-131 → 6.5 o-128

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: DET projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (DET 2.97). The 6.43 total looks high, but most of it comes from EDM; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, DET is trash (1.82) and EDM is mid (2.01); on the power play, DET is good (0.64) and EDM is great (0.78). DET faces Tristan Jarry, a Trash goalie, grade 8 (+2.4%); EDM faces Michal Postava, an OK goalie, grade 24 (+0.0%). Other factors: DET's team speed costs 3.9%; EDM's team speed adds 4.4%. DET 2.97: 0.17 goals below what an average team would score (3.13). Pushing it up: Tristan Jarry in goal +0.07 (a Trash goalie, grade 8, +2.4%); power play +0.07 (its power play ranks #5, EDM's penalty kill and penalty habits #10); injuries +0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.3%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.23 (its attack ranks #25 of 32, EDM's defense #11); team speed -0.12 (it skates slower than EDM, -3.9%). EDM 3.46: 0.33 goals above what an average team would score (3.13). Pushing it up: power play +0.20 (its power play ranks #3, DET's penalty kill and penalty habits #21); team speed +0.15 (it skates faster than DET, +4.4%); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.9%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.04 (its attack ranks #13 of 32, DET's defense #12). The model projects 6.43 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 49% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (DET 4, EDM 3), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.
8:30 PM ETAVOID
O 6.5 ✗ went over
TOR#17 OFF / #27 DEF23.23●
S. Bobrovsky ✓ Mid 41
CGY#29 OFF / #26 DEF52.86●
D. Cooley ✓ Good 71
7 goals · proj 6.08 · P(7+) 45%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
TOR2.180.67-4.0%0.51–+2.3%-2.1%
CGY1.930.55-1.4%0.51–-2.9%-0.2%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
TOR2.05#17 of 322.17#24 of 322.18goals
CGY1.80#29 of 322.19#27 of 321.93goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
TOR0.61#12 of 320.60#22 of 320.67goals
CGY0.46#29 of 320.65#28 of 320.55goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPre-game
TOR
William Nylander R-4.7%Plays
Auston Matthews C-4.2%Plays
John Tavares C-2.8%OUT · IR
Kirill Marchenko R-1.7%Plays
Darren Raddysh D-1.4%Plays
CGY
Matt Coronato R-1.5%Plays
Morgan Frost C-1.3%Plays
Jonathan Huberdeau L-0.5%OUT · IR
Joel Farabee L-0.5%Plays
Ryan Strome C-0.4%Plays
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-game
TOR
Darren Raddysh D+0.6%Plays
Kirill Marchenko R+0.4%Plays
Jack Roslovic C+0.4%Plays
Oliver Ekman-Larsson D+0.4%Plays
Nick Paul L+0.4%Plays
CGY
Morgan Frost C+0.8%Plays
Matt Coronato R+0.4%Plays
Adam Klapka R+0.4%Plays
Joel Hanley D+0.4%OUT · scratch
Ryan Strome C+0.4%Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.08 → 6.08)
  • 12:01 AM 6.08 first run
  • 2:23 AM 6.08 TOR goalie Sergei Bobrovsky: Projected → Likely; CGY goalie Devin Cooley: Projected → Likely; Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-119
  • 5:38 AM 6.08 Line 6.5 o-119 → 6.5 o-118
  • 11:18 AM 6.08 -0.01rounding; Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-120
  • 12:17 PM 6.08 CGY goalie Devin Cooley: Likely → Confirmed
  • 1:17 PM 6.08 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Mikael Backlund (CGY) back in +0.01; TOR goalie Sergei Bobrovsky: Likely → Confirmed; TOR lineup: David Alter Oct 26 12:50 PM; Mikael Backlund (CGY) day-to-day; CGY lineup: Projected Oct 26 12:46 PM
  • 2:17 PM 6.08 no change
  • 3:17 PM 6.08 no change
  • 4:17 PM 6.08 no change
  • 4:35 PM 6.08 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.08 no change
  • 6:17 PM 6.08 no change
  • 6:45 PM 6.08 no change
  • 7:17 PM 6.08 no change
  • 8:17 PM 6.08 CGY lineup: Pat Steinberg Oct 26 8:15 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: CGY projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (CGY 2.86). The 6.08 total looks high, but most of it comes from TOR; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, TOR is good (2.18) and CGY is bad (1.93); on the power play, TOR is great (0.67) and CGY is mid (0.55). TOR faces Devin Cooley, a Good goalie, grade 71 (-4.0%); CGY faces Sergei Bobrovsky, a Mid goalie, grade 41 (-1.4%). Other factors: TOR's team speed adds 2.3%; injuries cost TOR 2.1%; CGY's team speed costs 2.9%. TOR 3.23: 0.09 goals above what an average team would score (3.13). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.13 (its attack ranks #17 of 32, CGY's defense #24); power play +0.09 (its power play ranks #12, CGY's penalty kill and penalty habits #22); team speed +0.07 (it skates faster than CGY, +2.3%). Holding it back: Devin Cooley in goal -0.14 (a Good goalie, grade 71, -4.0%); injuries -0.07 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.1%). CGY 2.86: 0.28 goals below what an average team would score (3.13). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.12 (its attack ranks #29 of 32, TOR's defense #27); team speed -0.09 (it skates slower than TOR, -2.9%); Sergei Bobrovsky in goal -0.04 (a Mid goalie, grade 41, -1.4%); power play -0.03 (its power play ranks #29, TOR's penalty kill and penalty habits #28). The model projects 6.08 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (TOR 2, CGY 5), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.
7:00 PM ETAVOID ⚠ lineup
O 5.5 ✗ went over
LAK#28 OFF / #15 DEF62.71●
D. Kuemper ✓ Mid 48
NYR#22 OFF / #12 DEF32.98●
J. Reimer ✓ OK 24
9 goals · proj 5.70 · P(7+) 41%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
LAK1.790.44–0.51–+0.4%-1.5%
NYR1.880.63-2.1%0.51–-0.7%+1.6%
Why this call
⚠ Lineup change since 12:01 AM: Quinton Byfield now Day-to-day (was OUT, seen 1:17 PM) · LAK ±1.2% · projection 5.67 → 5.70
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
LAK1.81#27 of 322.02#14 of 321.79goals
NYR1.97#19 of 321.94#10 of 321.88goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
LAK0.45#30 of 320.54#9 of 320.44goals
NYR0.59#14 of 320.59#19 of 320.63goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPre-game
LAK
Artemi Panarin L-4.1%Plays
Adrian Kempe R-3.5%Plays
⚠ Quinton Byfield R-1.2%Day-to-daywas OUT
Kevin Fiala L-1.1%OUT · IR
Alex Laferriere R-0.9%Plays
NYR
Mika Zibanejad C-3.1%Plays
Alexis Lafrenière L-2.6%Plays
J.T. Miller C-2.4%Plays
Adam Fox D-2.1%Plays
Pavel Dorofeyev R-1.6%Plays
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-game
LAK
Brandt Clarke D+1.7%Plays
Artemi Panarin L+1.1%Plays
Adrian Kempe R+1.1%Plays
Alex Laferriere R+0.9%Plays
Drew Doughty D+0.8%Plays
NYR
Alexis Lafrenière L+0.8%Plays
Pavel Dorofeyev R+0.8%Plays
Adam Fox D+0.7%Plays
Gabe Perreault R+0.5%Plays
Oliver Bjorkstrand R+0.4%Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (5.67 → 5.70)
  • 12:01 AM 5.67 first run
  • 2:23 AM 5.67 LAK goalie Darcy Kuemper: Projected → Likely; NYR goalie Dylan Garand: Projected → Likely; Line 5.5 o-131 → 5.5 o-128
  • 5:38 AM 5.67 no change
  • 11:18 AM 5.69 +0.02NYR goalie: Dylan Garand → James Reimer +0.03; Injuries / lineup: Mats Zuccarello (LAK) out -0.01; Line 5.5 o-128 → 5.5 o-130
  • 12:17 PM 5.69 NYR lineup: Vince Mercogliano Oct 26 11:58 AM; Line 5.5 o-130 → 5.5 o-132
  • 1:17 PM 5.70 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Quinton Byfield (LAK) back in +0.01; Quinton Byfield (LAK) day-to-day; LAK lineup: Zach Dooley Oct 26 12:39 PM; Line 5.5 o-132 → 5.5 o-130
  • 2:17 PM 5.70 Line 5.5 o-130 → 5.5 o-131
  • 3:17 PM 5.70 no change
  • 4:17 PM 5.70 no change
  • 4:35 PM 5.70 no change
  • 5:17 PM 5.70 Line 5.5 o-131 → 5.5 o-133
  • 6:17 PM 5.70 Line 5.5 o-133 → 5.5 o-132
  • 6:45 PM 5.70 LAK goalie Darcy Kuemper: Likely → Confirmed; LAK lineup: Zach Dooley Oct 26 6:38 PM; NYR lineup: Mollie Walker Oct 26 6:37 PM; Line 5.5 o-132 → 5.5 o-116

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: LAK and NYR project under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (LAK 2.71, NYR 2.98); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, LAK is trash (1.79) and NYR is bad (1.88); on the power play, LAK is trash (0.44) and NYR is good (0.63). LAK faces James Reimer, an OK goalie, grade 24 (+0.0%); NYR faces Darcy Kuemper, a Mid goalie, grade 48 (-2.1%). Other factors: injuries cost LAK 1.5%; injuries help NYR 1.6%. LAK 2.71: 0.42 goals below what an average team would score (3.13). Pushing it up: team speed +0.01 (it skates faster than NYR, +0.4%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.25 (its attack ranks #27 of 32, NYR's defense #14); power play -0.14 (its power play ranks #30, NYR's penalty kill and penalty habits #9); injuries -0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.5%). NYR 2.98: 0.15 goals below what an average team would score (3.13). Pushing it up: power play +0.05 (its power play ranks #14, LAK's penalty kill and penalty habits #19); injuries +0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.6%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.17 (its attack ranks #19 of 32, LAK's defense #10); Darcy Kuemper in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 48, -2.1%); team speed -0.02 (it skates slower than LAK, -0.7%). The model projects 5.70 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 41% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 9 goals (LAK 6, NYR 3), so it went over 5.5 and the call was wrong.

Two rows per game (away, then home). ● = team projected high-scoring. Proj = (5v5 + PP + Oth) × goalie (Gl) × back-to-back (B2B) × team speed (Spd) × injuries (Inj). Hover or tap any underlined label for an explanation.