NHL Total Model · 2026-10-17

4:00 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

VAN#30 OFF / #32 DEF22.63●

K. Lankinen ✓ Trash 1

TBL#6 OFF / #7 DEF44.04●

D. Hildeby ✓ Mid 54

6 goals · proj 6.67 · P(7+) 47%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
VAN	1.66	0.58	-2.5%	0.50	–	-1.4%	-0.4%
TBL	2.54	0.69	+6.2%	0.49	–	+1.2%	+0.9%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
VAN	1.81#27 of 32	1.87#3 of 32	1.66goals
TBL	2.23#5 of 32	2.32#31 of 32	2.54goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
VAN	0.57#18 of 32	0.56#13 of 32	0.58goals
TBL	0.56#20 of 32	0.68#29 of 32	0.69goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
VAN
Brock Boeser R	-1.8%	Plays
Jake DeBrusk L	-1.8%	Plays
Elias Pettersson C	-1.7%	Plays
Marco Rossi C	-1.2%	OUT · IR
Linus Karlsson C	-0.9%	Plays
TBL
Nikita Kucherov R	-7.3%	Plays
Brandon Hagel L	-5.2%	Plays
Jake Guentzel C	-5.0%	Plays
Brayden Point C	-3.4%	Plays
Anthony Cirelli C	-2.8%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
VAN
Linus Karlsson C	+0.8%	Plays
Jake DeBrusk L	+0.6%	Plays
Marco Rossi C	+0.5%	OUT · IR
Elias Pettersson C	+0.5%	Plays
Tom Willander D	+0.4%	Plays
TBL
Gage Goncalves C	+1.2%	Plays
Pontus Holmberg R	+1.1%	Plays
Nikita Kucherov R	+1.1%	Plays
Jake Guentzel C	+0.9%	Plays
Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	+0.8%	Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.43 → 6.67)

12:02 AM 6.43 first run
12:41 AM 6.58 +0.14TBL goalie: Andrei Vasilevskiy → Dennis Hildeby +0.15; VAN goalie Leevi Merilainen: Projected → Likely
1:41 AM 6.58 no change
4:13 AM 6.43 -0.14TBL goalie: Dennis Hildeby → Andrei Vasilevskiy -0.15
11:17 AM 6.57 +0.13TBL goalie: Andrei Vasilevskiy → Dennis Hildeby +0.14; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 6.5 o-105 → 6.5 o-112
12:18 PM 6.57 Line 6.5 o-112 → 6.5 o-115
12:45 PM 6.57 no change
1:18 PM 6.57 no change
1:53 PM 6.57 no change
2:18 PM 6.57 no change
3:03 PM 6.54 -0.02Injuries / lineup: Max Crozier (TBL) out, Charle-Edouard D'Astous (TBL) back in, Emil Lilleberg (TBL) back in -0.02
3:17 PM 6.54 no change
3:45 PM 6.67 +0.13VAN goalie: Leevi Merilainen → Kevin Lankinen +0.14; Injuries / lineup: Marco Rossi (VAN) out -0.01; VAN lineup: Brendan Batchelor Oct 17 3:43 PM; TBL lineup: Benjamin Pierce Oct 17 3:36 PM; Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-120

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: VAN projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (VAN 2.63). The 6.67 total looks high, but most of it comes from TBL; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, VAN is trash (1.66) and TBL is great (2.54); on the power play, VAN is mid (0.58) and TBL is great (0.69). VAN faces Dennis Hildeby, a Mid goalie, grade 54 (-2.5%); TBL faces Kevin Lankinen, a Trash goalie, grade 1 (+6.2%). VAN 2.63: 0.48 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.38 (its attack ranks #27 of 32, TBL's defense #3); Dennis Hildeby in goal -0.07 (a Mid goalie, grade 54, -2.5%); team speed -0.04 (it skates slower than TBL, -1.4%). TBL 4.04: 0.93 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.50 (its attack ranks #5 of 32, VAN's defense #31); Kevin Lankinen in goal +0.23 (a Trash goalie, grade 1, +6.2%); power play +0.12 (its power play ranks #20, VAN's penalty kill and penalty habits #29); team speed +0.05 (it skates faster than VAN, +1.2%); injuries +0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.9%). The model projects 6.67 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 47% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 6 goals (VAN 2, TBL 4), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

10:00 PM ET🔨 SLAM

O 6.5 W
paper W +0.83u

EDM#8 OFF / #12 DEF63.26●

T. Jarry ✓ Trash 11

UTA#3 OFF / #5 DEF23.34●

K. Vejmelka ✓ Mid 44

8 goals · proj 6.60 · P(7+) 52%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
EDM	2.06	0.70	-1.7%	0.50	–	+1.8%	+0.1%
UTA	2.07	0.74	+1.8%	0.50	–	-0.8%	-0.2%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
EDM	2.17#9 of 32	1.94#9 of 32	2.06goals
UTA	2.23#6 of 32	1.89#6 of 32	2.07goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
EDM	0.67#5 of 32	0.57#16 of 32	0.70goals
UTA	0.72#2 of 32	0.57#15 of 32	0.74goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
EDM
Connor McDavid C	-7.9%	Plays
Leon Draisaitl C	-6.3%	Plays
Evan Bouchard D	-4.7%	Plays
Zach Hyman L	-2.7%	Plays
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C	-1.8%	OUT · IR
UTA
Dylan Guenther R	-4.0%	Plays
Clayton Keller R	-3.8%	Plays
Nick Schmaltz C	-3.6%	Plays
Logan Cooley C	-2.5%	Plays
Mikhail Sergachev D	-1.5%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
EDM
Connor McDavid C	+1.6%	Plays
Leon Draisaitl C	+1.5%	Plays
Evan Bouchard D	+1.4%	Plays
Vasily Podkolzin R	+1.4%	Plays
Trent Frederic C	+0.7%	Plays
UTA
Clayton Keller R	+1.6%	Plays
Nate Schmidt D	+1.5%	Plays
Barrett Hayton C	+1.1%	Plays
Nick Schmaltz C	+1.0%	Plays
John Marino D	+0.9%	Plays

Also out: UTA: Michael Carcone -0.7% attack, +0.8% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.63 → 6.60)

12:02 AM 6.63 first run
12:41 AM 6.63 UTA goalie Karel Vejmelka: Projected → Likely
1:41 AM 6.63 Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-120
4:13 AM 6.63 no change
11:17 AM 6.62 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 6.5 o-120 → 6.5 o-123
12:18 PM 6.62 no change
12:45 PM 6.62 no change
1:18 PM 6.62 UTA lineup: Cole Bagley Oct 17 1:09 PM
1:53 PM 6.62 Jake Walman (EDM) off day-to-day; Zach Hyman (EDM) off day-to-day; EDM lineup: Jack Michael Oct 17 1:50 PM; Line 6.5 o-123 → 6.5 o-119
2:18 PM 6.62 no change
3:03 PM 6.62 UTA goalie Karel Vejmelka: Likely → Confirmed
3:17 PM 6.60 -0.02Injuries / lineup: Colton Dach (EDM) back in -0.02
3:45 PM 6.60 Line 6.5 o-119 → 6.5 o-120
4:18 PM 6.60 no change
4:44 PM 6.60 no change
5:18 PM 6.60 no change
5:46 PM 6.60 Line 6.5 o-120 → 6.5 o-119
6:18 PM 6.60 no change
6:46 PM 6.60 no change
7:12 PM 6.60 no change
7:18 PM 6.60 no change
7:46 PM 6.60 no change
8:18 PM 6.60 no change
8:46 PM 6.60 no change
9:11 PM 6.60 no change
9:18 PM 6.60 no change
9:46 PM 6.60 Line 6.5 o-119 → 6.5 o-120

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

🔨 SLAM: both teams project as high-scoring (EDM 3.26, UTA 3.34; cutoff 3.10), the line is 6.5, and both are good or better at 5-on-5, the strongest over spot the model has. At 5-on-5, EDM is good (2.06) and UTA is good (2.07); on the power play, EDM is great (0.70) and UTA is great (0.74). EDM faces Karel Vejmelka, a Mid goalie, grade 44 (-1.7%); UTA faces Tristan Jarry, a Trash goalie, grade 11 (+1.8%). EDM 3.26: 0.15 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: power play +0.12 (its power play ranks #5, UTA's penalty kill and penalty habits #16); team speed +0.06 (it skates faster than UTA, +1.8%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.02 (its attack ranks #9 of 32, UTA's defense #9). Holding it back: Karel Vejmelka in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 44, -1.7%). UTA 3.34: 0.22 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: power play +0.17 (its power play ranks #2, EDM's penalty kill and penalty habits #15); Tristan Jarry in goal +0.06 (a Trash goalie, grade 11, +1.8%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.03 (its attack ranks #6 of 32, EDM's defense #6). Holding it back: team speed -0.03 (it skates slower than EDM, -0.8%). The model projects 6.60 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 52% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over 55% of the time at the opening line and 56.5% at the closing line in 2021-26. Final: 8 goals (EDM 6, UTA 2), so it went over 6.5 and the call was right.

10:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

PIT#10 OFF / #24 DEF22.73●

S. Murashov ✓ Trash 19

VGK#5 OFF / #4 DEF63.79●

A. Hill ✓ OK 21

8 goals · proj 6.52 · P(7+) 47%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
PIT	2.08	0.42	+0.4%	0.51	-8.0%	-0.9%	-0.8%
VGK	2.29	0.69	+0.6%	0.49	+6.5%	+0.7%	+1.2%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
PIT	2.33#3 of 32	1.82#1 of 32	2.08goals
VGK	2.19#7 of 32	2.13#23 of 32	2.29goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
PIT	0.59#13 of 32	0.40#1 of 32	0.42goals
VGK	0.70#3 of 32	0.54#9 of 32	0.69goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
PIT
Sidney Crosby C	-3.9%	Plays
Bryan Rust R	-2.9%	Plays
Rickard Rakell R	-2.8%	Plays
Evgeni Malkin C	-2.7%	Plays
Erik Karlsson D	-1.8%	Plays
VGK
Jack Eichel C	-4.8%	Plays
Mark Stone R	-4.1%	Plays
Mitch Marner R	-3.8%	Plays
Tomas Hertl C	-3.6%	Plays
Ivan Barbashev L	-1.9%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
PIT
Tommy Novak C	+1.0%	Plays
Samuel Girard D	+0.9%	Plays
Ben Kindel C	+0.8%	Plays
Egor Chinakhov R	+0.6%	OUT
Kaedan Korczak D	+0.5%	Plays
VGK
Tomas Hertl C	+1.6%	Plays
Shea Theodore D	+1.4%	Plays
Mark Stone R	+1.2%	Plays
Ivan Barbashev L	+1.1%	Plays
Noah Hanifin D	+1.0%	Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.55 → 6.52)

12:02 AM 6.55 first run
12:41 AM 6.56 +0.01VGK goalie: Adin Hill → Carter Hart +0.01
1:41 AM 6.43 -0.13PIT goalie: Arturs Silovs → Sergei Murashov -0.13
4:13 AM 6.43 no change
11:17 AM 6.53 +0.10Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.10; Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-119
12:18 PM 6.53 no change
12:45 PM 6.53 no change
1:18 PM 6.53 Line 6.5 o-119 → 6.5 o-118
1:53 PM 6.53 no change
2:18 PM 6.53 no change
3:03 PM 6.52 -0.01VGK goalie: Carter Hart → Adin Hill -0.01; Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-120
3:17 PM 6.52 no change
3:45 PM 6.52 no change
4:18 PM 6.52 no change
4:44 PM 6.52 no change
5:18 PM 6.52 no change
5:46 PM 6.52 no change
6:18 PM 6.52 no change
6:46 PM 6.52 no change
7:12 PM 6.52 no change
7:18 PM 6.52 no change
7:46 PM 6.52 Line 6.5 o-120 → 6.5 o-125
8:18 PM 6.52 PIT goalie Sergei Murashov: Likely → Confirmed
8:46 PM 6.52 Line 6.5 o-125 → 6.5 o-124
9:11 PM 6.52 Line 6.5 o-124 → 6.5 o-125
9:18 PM 6.52 no change
9:46 PM 6.52 PIT lineup: @penguins Oct 17 9:34 PM; VGK lineup: Sin Bin Vegas Oct 17 9:37 PM; Line 6.5 o-125 → 6.5 o-124

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: PIT projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (PIT 2.73). The 6.52 total looks high, but most of it comes from VGK; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, PIT is good (2.08) and VGK is great (2.29); on the power play, PIT is trash (0.42) and VGK is great (0.69). PIT faces Adin Hill, an OK goalie, grade 21 (+0.4%); VGK faces Sergei Murashov, a Trash goalie, grade 19 (+0.6%). Other factors: PIT played yesterday (-8%); VGK's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%). PIT 2.73: 0.39 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.04 (its attack ranks #3 of 32, VGK's defense #1); Adin Hill in goal +0.01 (an OK goalie, grade 21, +0.4%). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.24 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); power play -0.15 (its power play ranks #13, VGK's penalty kill and penalty habits #1); team speed -0.02 (it skates slower than VGK, -0.9%); injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.8%). VGK 3.79: 0.68 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.25 (its attack ranks #7 of 32, PIT's defense #23); back-to-back +0.23 (PIT played yesterday, +6.5%); power play +0.11 (its power play ranks #3, PIT's penalty kill and penalty habits #9); injuries +0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.2%); team speed +0.02 (it skates faster than PIT, +0.7%); Sergei Murashov in goal +0.02 (a Trash goalie, grade 19, +0.6%). The model projects 6.52 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 47% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 8 goals (PIT 2, VGK 6), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

3:30 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

CAR#1 OFF / #1 DEF33.56●

P. Kochetkov ✓ Mid 48

WPG#21 OFF / #19 DEF22.78●

C. Stevenson ✓ OK 27

5 goals · proj 6.34 · P(7+) 46%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
CAR	2.46	0.67	-0.3%	0.50	–	+1.9%	-3.4%
WPG	1.84	0.51	-2.0%	0.50	–	-2.1%	+1.4%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CAR	2.37#2 of 32	2.11#22 of 32	2.46goals
WPG	1.96#19 of 32	1.91#7 of 32	1.84goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CAR	0.68#4 of 32	0.55#10 of 32	0.67goals
WPG	0.58#15 of 32	0.49#3 of 32	0.51goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
CAR
Sebastian Aho C	-4.5%	Plays
Andrei Svechnikov R	-4.2%	Plays
Nikolaj Ehlers L	-3.2%	Plays
Jackson Blake R	-2.5%	Plays
Seth Jarvis C	-2.4%	OUT · IR
WPG
Kyle Connor L	-5.0%	Plays
Mark Scheifele C	-4.5%	Plays
Gabriel Vilardi C	-2.8%	Plays
Cole Perfetti C	-1.6%	Plays
Josh Morrissey D	-1.3%	OUT

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
CAR
Jackson Blake R	+1.8%	Plays
Shayne Gostisbehere D	+1.5%	Plays
Nikolaj Ehlers L	+1.5%	Plays
Sean Walker D	+1.4%	Plays
Logan Stankoven C	+1.4%	Plays
WPG
Cole Perfetti C	+1.3%	Plays
Josh Morrissey D	+1.0%	OUT
Nino Niederreiter R	+0.8%	Plays
Alex Iafallo L	+0.7%	Plays
Vladislav Namestnikov C	+0.6%	OUT

Also out: CAR: Taylor Hall -1.5% attack, +0.8% defense; Jordan Staal -0.8% attack, +0.4% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.35 → 6.34)

12:02 AM 6.35 first run
12:41 AM 6.35 CAR goalie Pyotr Kochetkov: Projected → Likely
1:41 AM 6.35 no change
4:13 AM 6.35 no change
11:17 AM 6.34 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 6.5 o-112 → 6.5 o+107
12:18 PM 6.34 WPG goalie Clay Stevenson: Likely → Confirmed
12:45 PM 6.34 no change
1:18 PM 6.34 Line 6.5 o+107 → 6.5 o+106
1:53 PM 6.34 no change
2:18 PM 6.34 no change
3:03 PM 6.34 no change
3:17 PM 6.34 CAR goalie Pyotr Kochetkov: Likely → Confirmed; CAR lineup: Walt Ruff Oct 17 3:14 PM; WPG lineup: Mitchell Clinton Oct 17 3:13 PM; Line 6.5 o+106 → 6.5 o+107

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: WPG projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (WPG 2.78). The 6.34 total looks high, but most of it comes from CAR; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, CAR is great (2.46) and WPG is bad (1.84); on the power play, CAR is great (0.67) and WPG is bad (0.51). CAR faces Clay Stevenson, an OK goalie, grade 27 (-0.3%); WPG faces Pyotr Kochetkov, a Mid goalie, grade 48 (-2.0%). Other factors: injuries cost CAR 3.4%; WPG's team speed costs 2.1%. CAR 3.56: 0.45 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.42 (its attack ranks #2 of 32, WPG's defense #22); power play +0.10 (its power play ranks #4, WPG's penalty kill and penalty habits #10); team speed +0.07 (it skates faster than WPG, +1.9%). Holding it back: injuries -0.12 (missing players on both teams, net, -3.4%); Clay Stevenson in goal -0.01 (an OK goalie, grade 27, -0.3%). WPG 2.78: 0.33 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: injuries +0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.4%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.20 (its attack ranks #19 of 32, CAR's defense #7); power play -0.06 (its power play ranks #15, CAR's penalty kill and penalty habits #3); team speed -0.06 (it skates slower than CAR, -2.1%); Pyotr Kochetkov in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 48, -2.0%). The model projects 6.34 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 46% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (CAR 3, WPG 2), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

7:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

SJS#28 OFF / #30 DEF32.88●

A. Nedeljkovic ✓ OK 23

DET#16 OFF / #13 DEF43.43●

J. Gibson ✓ OK 31

7 goals · proj 6.31 · P(7+) 47%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
SJS	1.80	0.61	-0.7%	0.50	–	-0.7%	+0.3%
DET	2.03	0.82	+0.1%	0.50	–	+0.5%	+1.6%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
SJS	1.80#28 of 32	2.03#18 of 32	1.80goals
DET	1.93#22 of 32	2.15#25 of 32	2.03goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
SJS	0.57#19 of 32	0.59#22 of 32	0.61goals
DET	0.64#7 of 32	0.71#32 of 32	0.82goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
SJS
Macklin Celebrini C	-4.6%	Plays
Will Smith C	-2.3%	Plays
Tyler Toffoli C	-2.0%	Plays
Alexander Wennberg C	-0.9%	Plays
Kiefer Sherwood L	-0.8%	Plays
DET
Alex DeBrincat R	-5.3%	Plays
Lucas Raymond L	-3.6%	Plays
Dylan Larkin C	-3.3%	Plays
Moritz Seider D	-1.1%	Plays
Viktor Arvidsson L	-0.9%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
SJS
Macklin Celebrini C	+0.8%	Plays
Tyler Toffoli C	+0.7%	Plays
Dmitry Orlov D	+0.6%	Plays
Will Smith C	+0.6%	Plays
Sam Dickinson D	+0.4%	Plays
DET
Moritz Seider D	+1.4%	Plays
Lucas Raymond L	+1.2%	Plays
Alex DeBrincat R	+1.2%	Plays
Emmitt Finnie C	+0.7%	Plays
Dylan Larkin C	+0.6%	Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.33 → 6.31)

12:02 AM 6.33 first run
12:41 AM 6.47 +0.13SJS goalie: Alex Nedeljkovic → Yaroslav Askarov +0.13; DET goalie Daniil Tarasov: Projected → Likely
1:41 AM 6.47 no change
4:13 AM 6.47 no change
11:17 AM 6.44 -0.03DET goalie: Daniil Tarasov → John Gibson -0.01; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; DET lineup: Ansar Khan Oct 17 10:34 AM; Line 6.5 o-101 → 6.5 o+100
12:18 PM 6.44 DET goalie John Gibson: Likely → Confirmed
12:45 PM 6.44 no change
1:17 PM 6.31 -0.13SJS goalie: Yaroslav Askarov → Alex Nedeljkovic -0.13
1:53 PM 6.31 no change
2:18 PM 6.31 no change
3:03 PM 6.31 no change
3:17 PM 6.31 no change
3:45 PM 6.31 no change
4:18 PM 6.31 Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o-101
4:44 PM 6.31 Line 6.5 o-101 → 6.5 o-100
5:18 PM 6.31 no change
5:46 PM 6.31 no change
6:18 PM 6.31 no change
6:46 PM 6.31 no change

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: SJS projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (SJS 2.88). The 6.31 total looks high, but most of it comes from DET; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, SJS is trash (1.80) and DET is mid (2.03); on the power play, SJS is good (0.61) and DET is great (0.82). SJS faces John Gibson, an OK goalie, grade 31 (-0.7%); DET faces Alex Nedeljkovic, an OK goalie, grade 23 (+0.1%). Other factors: injuries help DET 1.6%. SJS 2.88: 0.24 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: power play +0.03 (its power play ranks #19, DET's penalty kill and penalty habits #22). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.24 (its attack ranks #28 of 32, DET's defense #18); team speed -0.02 (it skates slower than DET, -0.7%); John Gibson in goal -0.02 (an OK goalie, grade 31, -0.7%). DET 3.43: 0.31 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: power play +0.25 (its power play ranks #7, SJS's penalty kill and penalty habits #32); injuries +0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.6%); team speed +0.02 (it skates faster than SJS, +0.5%). The model projects 6.31 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 47% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (SJS 3, DET 4), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

1:00 PM ET🔨 SLAM

U 6.5 L
paper L -1.00u

NJD#9 OFF / #11 DEF23.12●

J. Allen ✓ Mid 54

WSH#11 OFF / #26 DEF43.17●

L. Thompson ✓ Strong 92

6 goals · proj 6.28 · P(7+) 49%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
NJD	2.23	0.68	-8.1%	0.51	–	-2.3%	+1.5%
WSH	2.19	0.48	-2.5%	0.50	–	+2.4%	+0.2%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NJD	2.07#14 of 32	2.19#28 of 32	2.23goals
WSH	2.29#4 of 32	1.95#11 of 32	2.19goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NJD	0.56#20 of 32	0.67#27 of 32	0.68goals
WSH	0.50#26 of 32	0.53#5 of 32	0.48goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
NJD
Jack Hughes C	-4.1%	Plays
Jesper Bratt L	-3.5%	Plays
Nico Hischier C	-3.5%	Plays
Timo Meier R	-1.8%	Plays
Dougie Hamilton D	-1.4%	Plays
WSH
Alex Ovechkin L	-3.4%	Plays
Tom Wilson R	-3.2%	Plays
Dylan Strome C	-2.7%	Plays
Jakob Chychrun D	-2.5%	Plays
Aliaksei Protas L	-1.7%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
NJD
Jack Hughes C	+1.2%	Plays
Luke Hughes D	+1.1%	Plays
Jesper Bratt L	+0.9%	Plays
Dougie Hamilton D	+0.9%	Plays
Arseny Gritsyuk R	+0.9%	Plays
WSH
Jakob Chychrun D	+1.1%	Plays
Justin Sourdif C	+0.7%	OUT
Rasmus Sandin D	+0.6%	OUT · IR
Dylan Strome C	+0.5%	Plays
Ryan Leonard R	+0.5%	Plays

Also out: WSH: Pierre-Luc Dubois -0.9% attack, +0.3% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.29 → 6.28)

12:02 AM 6.29 first run
12:41 AM 6.29 NJD goalie Jake Allen: Projected → Likely; WSH goalie Logan Thompson: Projected → Likely
1:41 AM 6.29 no change
4:13 AM 6.29 no change
11:17 AM 6.28 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; NJD goalie Jake Allen: Likely → Confirmed; WSH goalie Logan Thompson: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o+108 → 6.5 o+107
12:18 PM 6.28 Line 6.5 o+107 → 6.5 o+110
12:45 PM 6.28 Injuries / lineup: Ethen Frank (WSH) out -0.00; WSH lineup: Tom Gulitti Oct 17 12:38 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

🔨 SLAM: both teams project as high-scoring (NJD 3.12, WSH 3.17; cutoff 3.10), the line is 6.5, and both are good or better at 5-on-5, the strongest over spot the model has. At 5-on-5, NJD is great (2.23) and WSH is great (2.19); on the power play, NJD is great (0.68) and WSH is bad (0.48). NJD faces Logan Thompson, a Strong goalie, grade 92 (-8.1%); WSH faces Jake Allen, a Mid goalie, grade 54 (-2.5%). Only NJD faces a Strong or Good goalie, so the avoid rule for two Strong / Good goalies doesn't apply. Other factors: NJD's team speed costs 2.3%; injuries help NJD 1.5%; WSH's team speed adds 2.4%. NJD 3.12: 0.00 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.19 (its attack ranks #14 of 32, WSH's defense #28); power play +0.10 (its power play ranks #20, WSH's penalty kill and penalty habits #27); injuries +0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.5%). Holding it back: Logan Thompson in goal -0.28 (a Strong goalie, grade 92, -8.1%); team speed -0.07 (it skates slower than WSH, -2.3%). WSH 3.17: 0.05 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.16 (its attack ranks #4 of 32, NJD's defense #11); team speed +0.07 (it skates faster than NJD, +2.4%). Holding it back: power play -0.10 (its power play ranks #26, NJD's penalty kill and penalty habits #5); Jake Allen in goal -0.08 (a Mid goalie, grade 54, -2.5%). The model projects 6.28 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 49% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over 55% of the time at the opening line and 56.5% at the closing line in 2021-26. Final: 6 goals (NJD 2, WSH 4), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was wrong.

6:00 PM ETAVOID near miss −0.02

O 6.5 ✗ went over

SEA#24 OFF / #23 DEF33.08●

J. Daccord ✓ Mid 41

FLA#12 OFF / #15 DEF83.19●

J. Markstrom ✓ OK 25

11 goals · proj 6.27 · P(7+) 48%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
SEA	2.01	0.56	-0.1%	0.50	–	-0.8%	+1.4%
FLA	2.05	0.73	-1.4%	0.50	–	+0.6%	-1.8%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
SEA	2.12#12 of 32	1.93#8 of 32	2.01goals
FLA	1.90#23 of 32	2.20#30 of 32	2.05goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
SEA	0.51#25 of 32	0.60#23 of 32	0.56goals
FLA	0.78#1 of 32	0.51#4 of 32	0.73goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
SEA
Jordan Eberle R	-2.0%	Plays
Jared McCann L	-1.9%	Plays
Bobby McMann C	-1.5%	Plays
Matty Beniers C	-1.1%	Plays
Shane Wright C	-0.9%	Plays
FLA
Sam Reinhart C	-3.8%	Plays
Matthew Tkachuk L	-3.1%	Plays
Sam Bennett C	-3.0%	Plays
Carter Verhaeghe C	-3.0%	Plays
Brad Marchand L	-1.9%	OUT · IR

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
SEA
Jordan Eberle R	+0.9%	Plays
Shane Wright C	+0.8%	Plays
Matty Beniers C	+0.8%	Plays
Ryker Evans D	+0.7%	Plays
Brandon Montour D	+0.6%	Day-to-day
FLA
Niko Mikkola D	+0.8%	Plays
Carter Verhaeghe C	+0.8%	Plays
Sam Reinhart C	+0.7%	Plays
Uvis Balinskis D	+0.7%	Plays
Sam Bennett C	+0.7%	Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.29 → 6.27)

12:02 AM 6.29 first run
12:41 AM 6.28 -0.01FLA goalie: Akira Schmid → Jacob Markstrom -0.01; SEA goalie Joey Daccord: Projected → Likely
1:41 AM 6.28 no change
4:13 AM 6.29 +0.01FLA goalie: Jacob Markstrom → Akira Schmid +0.01
11:17 AM 6.27 -0.02FLA goalie: Akira Schmid → Jacob Markstrom -0.01; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; FLA lineup: Rob Darragh Oct 17 10:13 AM; Line 6.5 o+104 → 6.5 o+107
12:18 PM 6.27 no change
12:45 PM 6.27 no change
1:18 PM 6.27 Line 6.5 o+107 → 6.5 o+109
1:53 PM 6.27 no change
2:18 PM 6.27 no change
3:03 PM 6.27 no change
3:17 PM 6.27 no change
3:45 PM 6.27 no change
4:18 PM 6.27 no change
4:44 PM 6.27 Line 6.5 o+109 → 6.5 o+108
5:18 PM 6.27 no change
5:46 PM 6.27 SEA goalie Joey Daccord: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o+108 → 6.5 o+106

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: SEA projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (SEA 3.08). SEA just misses the cutoff (by 0.02), and the rule needs both teams over it, so the 6.27 total isn't enough on its own. At 5-on-5, SEA is mid (2.01) and FLA is good (2.05); on the power play, SEA is mid (0.56) and FLA is great (0.73). SEA faces Jacob Markstrom, an OK goalie, grade 25 (-0.1%); FLA faces Joey Daccord, a Mid goalie, grade 41 (-1.4%). Other factors: injuries cost FLA 1.8%. SEA 3.08: 0.04 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: injuries +0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.4%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.03 (its attack ranks #12 of 32, FLA's defense #8); team speed -0.03 (it skates slower than FLA, -0.8%); power play -0.02 (its power play ranks #25, FLA's penalty kill and penalty habits #23). FLA 3.19: 0.07 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: power play +0.15 (its power play ranks #1, SEA's penalty kill and penalty habits #4); team speed +0.02 (it skates faster than SEA, +0.6%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.01 (its attack ranks #23 of 32, SEA's defense #30). Holding it back: injuries -0.06 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.8%); Joey Daccord in goal -0.05 (a Mid goalie, grade 41, -1.4%). The model projects 6.27 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 48% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 11 goals (SEA 3, FLA 8), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

7:00 PM ETAVOID near miss −0.02

O 6.5 ✗ went over

BUF#18 OFF / #18 DEF33.08●

U. Luukkonen ✓ OK 25

MTL#15 OFF / #25 DEF43.08●

J. Fowler ✓ Mid 57

7 goals · proj 6.16 · P(7+) 48%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
BUF	2.13	0.64	-2.8%	0.50	–	+0.8%	-3.8%
MTL	2.04	0.54	-0.1%	0.50	–	–	+0.3%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
BUF	2.14#11 of 32	2.02#17 of 32	2.13goals
MTL	2.08#13 of 32	1.99#15 of 32	2.04goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
BUF	0.52#23 of 32	0.68#30 of 32	0.64goals
MTL	0.52#24 of 32	0.58#18 of 32	0.54goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
BUF
Tage Thompson C	-4.7%	Plays
Rasmus Dahlin D	-2.2%	OUT
Jack Quinn R	-2.1%	Plays
Josh Doan R	-1.9%	Plays
Jason Zucker L	-1.4%	OUT · IR
MTL
Cole Caufield R	-5.3%	Plays
Nick Suzuki C	-5.0%	Plays
Juraj Slafkovský L	-3.3%	Plays
Lane Hutson D	-2.4%	Plays
Ivan Demidov R	-1.8%	OUT · IR

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
BUF
Rasmus Dahlin D	+1.2%	OUT
Noah Ostlund C	+1.1%	Plays
Josh Doan R	+1.1%	Plays
Zach Benson L	+1.0%	Plays
Tage Thompson C	+0.8%	Plays
MTL
Lane Hutson D	+2.0%	Plays
Cole Caufield R	+1.2%	Plays
Zachary Bolduc R	+1.2%	Plays
Nick Suzuki C	+1.1%	Plays
Juraj Slafkovský L	+0.8%	Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.17 → 6.16)

12:02 AM 6.17 first run
12:41 AM 6.15 -0.01MTL goalie: Jacob Fowler → Jakub Dobes -0.01; BUF goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: Projected → Likely
1:41 AM 6.15 no change
4:13 AM 6.15 no change
11:17 AM 6.15 MTL goalie: Jakub Dobes → Jacob Fowler +0.01; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01
12:17 PM 6.17 +0.02Injuries / lineup: Jiri Kulich (BUF) back in, Oliver Kapanen (MTL) back in +0.02; BUF goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: Likely → Confirmed; Jiri Kulich (BUF) day-to-day; Line 6.5 o-110 → 6.5 o-109
12:45 PM 6.17 Jiri Kulich (BUF) off day-to-day
1:18 PM 6.17 no change
1:53 PM 6.17 no change
2:18 PM 6.17 no change
3:03 PM 6.17 Line 6.5 o-109 → 6.5 o-110
3:17 PM 6.17 no change
3:45 PM 6.16 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Mike Matheson (MTL) out -0.01
4:18 PM 6.16 no change
4:44 PM 6.16 no change
5:18 PM 6.16 no change
5:46 PM 6.16 no change
6:18 PM 6.16 no change
6:46 PM 6.16 Josh Norris (BUF) off day-to-day; BUF lineup: Matthew Fairburn Oct 17 6:45 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: BUF and MTL project under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (BUF 3.08, MTL 3.08). At 5-on-5, BUF is good (2.13) and MTL is mid (2.04); on the power play, BUF is good (0.64) and MTL is mid (0.54). BUF faces Jacob Fowler, a Mid goalie, grade 57 (-2.8%); MTL faces Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, an OK goalie, grade 25 (-0.1%). Other factors: injuries cost BUF 3.8%. BUF 3.08: 0.03 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.09 (its attack ranks #11 of 32, MTL's defense #17); power play +0.07 (its power play ranks #23, MTL's penalty kill and penalty habits #30); team speed +0.02 (it skates faster than MTL, +0.8%). Holding it back: injuries -0.12 (missing players on both teams, net, -3.8%); Jacob Fowler in goal -0.09 (a Mid goalie, grade 57, -2.8%). MTL 3.08: 0.04 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Holding it back: power play -0.04 (its power play ranks #24, BUF's penalty kill and penalty habits #18). The model projects 6.16 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 48% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (BUF 3, MTL 4), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

7:00 PM ETAVOID ⚠ lineup

U 6.5 ✓ under

NYI#25 OFF / #17 DEF43.24●

I. Sorokin ✓ Strong 92

TOR#20 OFF / #31 DEF12.82●

S. Bobrovsky ✓ Mid 41

5 goals · proj 6.06 · P(7+) 45%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
NYI	2.09	0.64	-1.5%	0.50	–	+3.0%	-1.1%
TOR	2.00	0.72	-8.1%	0.51	–	-2.8%	-2.2%

Why this call

⚠ Lineup change since 12:02 AM: John Tavares now OUT (was Day-to-day, seen 11:17 AM) · TOR −3.4% · projection 6.08 → 6.06

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NYI	1.93#21 of 32	2.19#29 of 32	2.09goals
TOR	1.96#20 of 32	2.07#19 of 32	2.00goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NYI	0.53#22 of 32	0.67#28 of 32	0.64goals
TOR	0.58#14 of 32	0.68#30 of 32	0.72goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
NYI
Bo Horvat C	-2.8%	Plays
Matthew Schaefer D	-2.1%	Plays
Mathew Barzal C	-1.8%	OUT · IR
Brayden Schenn C	-1.0%	Plays
Kyle Palmieri C	-0.7%	Plays
TOR
William Nylander R	-4.6%	Plays
Auston Matthews C	-4.1%	Plays
⚠ John Tavares C	-3.4%	OUT · IRwas Day-to-day
Kirill Marchenko R	-1.3%	Plays
Darren Raddysh D	-1.1%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
NYI
Matthew Schaefer D	+1.0%	Plays
Mathew Barzal C	+0.8%	OUT · IR
Emil Heineman L	+0.7%	Plays
Ondrej Palat L	+0.6%	Plays
Brayden Schenn C	+0.5%	Plays
TOR
Darren Raddysh D	+0.5%	Plays
Jack Roslovic C	+0.4%	Plays
Kirill Marchenko R	+0.3%	Plays
Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	+0.3%	Plays
Nick Paul L	+0.3%	Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.08 → 6.06)

12:02 AM 6.08 first run
12:41 AM 6.16 +0.08TOR goalie: Anthony Stolarz → Sergei Bobrovsky +0.08; NYI goalie Ilya Sorokin: Projected → Likely
1:41 AM 6.16 no change
4:13 AM 6.16 no change
11:17 AM 6.06 -0.10Injuries / lineup: John Tavares (TOR) out -0.10; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; NYI goalie Ilya Sorokin: Likely → Confirmed; TOR goalie Sergei Bobrovsky: Likely → Confirmed; TOR lineup: Mark Masters Oct 17 10:44 AM; Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o+102
12:18 PM 6.06 NYI lineup: Ethan Sears Oct 17 11:40 AM
12:45 PM 6.06 Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o+103
1:18 PM 6.06 no change
1:53 PM 6.06 no change
2:18 PM 6.06 Line 6.5 o+103 → 6.5 o+104
3:03 PM 6.06 no change
3:17 PM 6.06 no change
3:45 PM 6.06 no change
4:18 PM 6.06 no change
4:44 PM 6.06 no change
5:18 PM 6.06 no change
5:46 PM 6.06 no change
6:18 PM 6.06 no change
6:46 PM 6.06 Line 6.5 o+104 → 6.5 o+103

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: TOR projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (TOR 2.82). The 6.06 total looks high, but most of it comes from NYI; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, NYI is good (2.09) and TOR is mid (2.00); on the power play, NYI is good (0.64) and TOR is great (0.72). NYI faces Sergei Bobrovsky, a Mid goalie, grade 41 (-1.5%); TOR faces Ilya Sorokin, a Strong goalie, grade 92 (-8.1%). Other factors: NYI's team speed adds 3.0%; TOR's team speed costs 2.8%; injuries cost TOR 2.2%. NYI 3.24: 0.12 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: team speed +0.10 (it skates faster than TOR, +3.0%); power play +0.07 (its power play ranks #22, TOR's penalty kill and penalty habits #28); 5-on-5 matchup +0.05 (its attack ranks #21 of 32, TOR's defense #29). Holding it back: Sergei Bobrovsky in goal -0.05 (a Mid goalie, grade 41, -1.5%); injuries -0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.1%). TOR 2.82: 0.30 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: power play +0.14 (its power play ranks #14, NYI's penalty kill and penalty habits #30). Holding it back: Ilya Sorokin in goal -0.26 (a Strong goalie, grade 92, -8.1%); team speed -0.08 (it skates slower than NYI, -2.8%); injuries -0.06 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.2%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.04 (its attack ranks #20 of 32, NYI's defense #19). The model projects 6.06 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (NYI 4, TOR 1), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

8:00 PM ETAVOID

O 5.5 ✗ went over

STL#27 OFF / #14 DEF23.06●

J. Binnington ✓ Trash 6

NSH#17 OFF / #20 DEF52.90●

J. Saros ✓ OK 37

7 goals · proj 5.95 · P(7+) 45%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
STL	2.06	0.44	-1.1%	0.50	–	+1.2%	+2.0%
NSH	1.70	0.64	+3.0%	0.50	–	-1.7%	+0.7%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
STL	2.02#17 of 32	2.08#21 of 32	2.06goals
NSH	1.76#31 of 32	1.97#12 of 32	1.70goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
STL	0.44#31 of 32	0.55#11 of 32	0.44goals
NSH	0.64#7 of 32	0.56#12 of 32	0.64goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
STL
Robert Thomas C	-2.8%	Plays
Dylan Holloway L	-1.9%	Plays
Jimmy Snuggerud R	-1.8%	Plays
Pavel Buchnevich L	-1.4%	Plays
Jake Neighbours L	-1.1%	Plays
NSH
Filip Forsberg L	-4.3%	Plays
Steven Stamkos C	-4.0%	Plays
Ryan O'Reilly C	-3.1%	Plays
Roman Josi D	-1.5%	Plays
Jonathan Marchessault R	-1.2%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
STL
Dylan Holloway L	+0.9%	Plays
Dalibor Dvorsky R	+0.8%	Plays
Cam Fowler D	+0.7%	Plays
Jake Neighbours L	+0.7%	Plays
Jimmy Snuggerud R	+0.6%	Plays
NSH
Filip Forsberg L	+0.7%	Plays
Steven Stamkos C	+0.6%	Plays
Adam Wilsby D	+0.5%	Plays
Roman Josi D	+0.4%	Plays
Ross Colton C	+0.3%	Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (5.91 → 5.95)

12:02 AM 5.91 first run
12:41 AM 5.92 +0.01NSH goalie: Justus Annunen → Juuse Saros +0.01; STL goalie Jordan Binnington: Projected → Likely
1:41 AM 5.92 no change
4:13 AM 5.92 no change
11:17 AM 5.91 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 5.5 o-140 → 5.5 o-139
12:18 PM 5.91 NSH goalie Juuse Saros: Likely → Confirmed
12:45 PM 5.95 +0.04Injuries / lineup: Ross Johnston (STL) out, Pavel Buchnevich (STL) back in +0.04; STL goalie Jordan Binnington: Likely → Confirmed; Pavel Buchnevich (STL) day-to-day; Line 5.5 o-139 → 5.5 o-140
1:18 PM 5.95 Pavel Buchnevich (STL) off day-to-day
1:53 PM 5.95 no change
2:18 PM 5.95 Line 5.5 o-140 → 6 o-127
3:03 PM 5.95 no change
3:17 PM 5.95 no change
3:45 PM 5.95 no change
4:18 PM 5.95 no change
4:44 PM 5.95 no change
5:18 PM 5.95 no change
5:46 PM 5.95 no change
6:18 PM 5.95 no change
6:46 PM 5.95 no change
7:12 PM 5.95 Line 6 o-127 → 6 o-130
7:18 PM 5.95 no change
7:46 PM 5.95 STL lineup: Lou Korac Oct 17 7:41 PM; NSH lineup: Brooks Bratten Oct 17 7:37 PM; Line 6 o-130 → 5.5 o-140

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: STL and NSH project under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (STL 3.06, NSH 2.90); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, STL is good (2.06) and NSH is trash (1.70); on the power play, STL is trash (0.44) and NSH is good (0.64). STL faces Juuse Saros, an OK goalie, grade 37 (-1.1%); NSH faces Jordan Binnington, a Trash goalie, grade 6 (+3.0%). Other factors: injuries help STL 2.0%. STL 3.06: 0.06 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: injuries +0.06 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.0%); team speed +0.04 (it skates faster than NSH, +1.2%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.02 (its attack ranks #17 of 32, NSH's defense #21). Holding it back: power play -0.14 (its power play ranks #31, NSH's penalty kill and penalty habits #11); Juuse Saros in goal -0.03 (an OK goalie, grade 37, -1.1%). NSH 2.90: 0.22 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: Jordan Binnington in goal +0.09 (a Trash goalie, grade 6, +3.0%); power play +0.07 (its power play ranks #7, STL's penalty kill and penalty habits #12); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.7%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.34 (its attack ranks #31 of 32, STL's defense #12); team speed -0.05 (it skates slower than STL, -1.7%). The model projects 5.95 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (STL 2, NSH 5), so it went over 5.5 and the call was wrong.

7:00 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

NYR#22 OFF / #9 DEF02.85●

D. Garand ✓ Mid 42

CBJ#13 OFF / #27 DEF13.09●

J. Greaves ✓ Strong 81

1 goals · proj 5.93 · P(7+) 44%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
NYR	1.85	0.70	-5.5%	0.51	–	-1.9%	+0.2%
CBJ	2.10	0.45	-1.5%	0.50	–	+1.9%	+0.9%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NYR	1.89#25 of 32	2.00#16 of 32	1.85goals
CBJ	2.15#10 of 32	1.99#14 of 32	2.10goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NYR	0.62#11 of 32	0.62#26 of 32	0.70goals
CBJ	0.46#28 of 32	0.54#7 of 32	0.45goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
NYR
Mika Zibanejad C	-3.1%	Plays
Alexis Lafrenière L	-2.5%	Plays
J.T. Miller C	-2.2%	Plays
Adam Fox D	-1.9%	Plays
Pavel Dorofeyev R	-1.3%	Plays
CBJ
Zach Werenski D	-2.7%	Plays
Adam Fantilli C	-2.3%	Plays
Sean Monahan C	-1.5%	Plays
Charlie Coyle C	-1.3%	Plays
Dmitri Voronkov L	-1.2%	OUT · scratch

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
NYR
Alexis Lafrenière L	+0.8%	Plays
Adam Fox D	+0.7%	Plays
Pavel Dorofeyev R	+0.6%	Plays
Gabe Perreault R	+0.5%	Plays
Tye Kartye L	+0.4%	Plays
CBJ
Kent Johnson C	+1.1%	Plays
Adam Fantilli C	+0.9%	Plays
Zach Werenski D	+0.7%	Plays
Danton Heinen L	+0.5%	Plays
Denton Mateychuk D	+0.5%	Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (5.95 → 5.93)

12:02 AM 5.95 first run
12:41 AM 6.15 +0.20NYR goalie: Dylan Garand → Spencer Martin +0.20; CBJ goalie Jet Greaves: Projected → Likely
1:41 AM 6.15 no change
4:13 AM 5.97 -0.18NYR goalie: Spencer Martin → Dylan Garand -0.20; Injuries / lineup: Isac Lundestrom (CBJ) out +0.02
11:17 AM 5.96 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o+100
12:17 PM 5.95 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Taylor Raddysh (NYR) back in -0.01; NYR goalie Dylan Garand: Likely → Confirmed; NYR lineup: Peter Baugh Oct 17 11:35 AM; CBJ goalie Jet Greaves: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o+101
12:45 PM 5.95 no change
1:18 PM 5.95 no change
1:53 PM 5.95 no change
2:18 PM 5.95 no change
3:03 PM 5.95 no change
3:17 PM 5.95 no change
3:45 PM 5.95 no change
4:18 PM 5.95 no change
4:44 PM 5.95 no change
5:18 PM 5.95 Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o+103
5:46 PM 5.95 no change
6:18 PM 5.95 no change
6:45 PM 5.93 -0.02Injuries / lineup: Dmitri Voronkov (CBJ) out, Cole Sillinger (CBJ) back in -0.02; CBJ lineup: Mark Scheig Oct 17 6:43 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: NYR and CBJ project under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (NYR 2.85, CBJ 3.09). At 5-on-5, NYR is bad (1.85) and CBJ is good (2.10); on the power play, NYR is great (0.70) and CBJ is trash (0.45). NYR faces Jet Greaves, a Strong goalie, grade 81 (-5.5%); CBJ faces Dylan Garand, a Mid goalie, grade 42 (-1.5%). NYR 2.85: 0.27 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: power play +0.13 (its power play ranks #11, CBJ's penalty kill and penalty habits #26). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.19 (its attack ranks #25 of 32, CBJ's defense #16); Jet Greaves in goal -0.17 (a Strong goalie, grade 81, -5.5%); team speed -0.05 (it skates slower than CBJ, -1.9%). CBJ 3.09: 0.03 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.06 (its attack ranks #10 of 32, NYR's defense #14); team speed +0.06 (it skates faster than NYR, +1.9%); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.9%). Holding it back: power play -0.13 (its power play ranks #28, NYR's penalty kill and penalty habits #7); Dylan Garand in goal -0.05 (a Mid goalie, grade 42, -1.5%). The model projects 5.93 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 44% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 1 goals (NYR 0, CBJ 1), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

7:00 PM ETAVOID

U 5.5 ✓ under

OTT#14 OFF / #6 DEF13.46●

L. Ullmark ✓ Good 76

PHI#32 OFF / #21 DEF32.31●

D. Vladar ✓ OK 26

4 goals · proj 5.77 · P(7+) 38%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
OTT	2.15	0.73	-0.2%	0.50	–	+1.3%	+1.4%
PHI	1.52	0.45	-4.7%	0.50	–	-1.1%	-0.9%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
OTT	2.01#18 of 32	2.18#26 of 32	2.15goals
PHI	1.64#32 of 32	1.89#5 of 32	1.52goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
OTT	0.66#6 of 32	0.61#24 of 32	0.73goals
PHI	0.46#28 of 32	0.54#8 of 32	0.45goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
OTT
Tim Stützle C	-4.1%	Plays
Drake Batherson R	-3.3%	Plays
Dylan Cozens C	-2.4%	Plays
Shane Pinto C	-1.5%	Plays
Claude Giroux R	-1.3%	Plays
PHI
Trevor Zegras C	-2.0%	Plays
Matvei Michkov R	-1.8%	Plays
Travis Konecny R	-1.7%	OUT · IR
Owen Tippett R	-1.6%	OUT
Tyson Foerster R	-0.7%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
OTT
Jordan Spence D	+2.2%	Plays
Drake Batherson R	+1.5%	Plays
Dylan Cozens C	+1.4%	Plays
Tim Stützle C	+1.3%	Plays
Tyler Kleven D	+1.1%	Plays
PHI
Jamie Drysdale D	+1.1%	Plays
Owen Tippett R	+1.1%	OUT
Noah Cates L	+0.9%	Plays
Trevor Zegras C	+0.9%	Plays
Matvei Michkov R	+0.9%	Plays

Also out: OTT: Jake Sanderson -0.9% attack, +0.5% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (5.79 → 5.77)

12:02 AM 5.79 first run
12:41 AM 5.79 OTT goalie Linus Ullmark: Projected → Likely; PHI goalie Dan Vladar: Projected → Likely; Line 5.5 o-110 → 5.5 o-109
1:41 AM 5.79 no change
4:13 AM 5.79 no change
11:17 AM 5.81 +0.02Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated +0.03; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; PHI goalie Dan Vladar: Likely → Confirmed; Line 5.5 o-109 → 5.5 o-105
12:17 PM 5.77 -0.04Injuries / lineup: Nikolas Matinpalo (OTT) back in -0.04; OTT goalie Linus Ullmark: Likely → Confirmed; OTT lineup: Jackson Starr Oct 17 11:37 AM; Owen Tippett (PHI) day-to-day; Line 5.5 o-105 → 5.5 o-102
12:45 PM 5.77 no change
1:18 PM 5.77 no change
1:53 PM 5.77 no change
2:18 PM 5.77 no change
3:03 PM 5.77 no change
3:17 PM 5.77 Line 5.5 o-102 → 5.5 o-100
3:45 PM 5.77 no change
4:18 PM 5.77 no change
4:44 PM 5.77 Line 5.5 o-100 → 5.5 o-102
5:18 PM 5.77 no change
5:46 PM 5.77 Line 5.5 o-102 → 5.5 o+100
6:18 PM 5.77 Line 5.5 o+100 → 5.5 o-102
6:45 PM 5.77 Injuries / lineup: Owen Tippett (PHI) out +0.00; Line 5.5 o-102 → 5.5 o-100

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: PHI projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (PHI 2.31); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, OTT is good (2.15) and PHI is trash (1.52); on the power play, OTT is great (0.73) and PHI is trash (0.45). OTT faces Dan Vladar, an OK goalie, grade 26 (-0.2%); PHI faces Linus Ullmark, a Good goalie, grade 76 (-4.7%). OTT 3.46: 0.34 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: power play +0.15 (its power play ranks #6, PHI's penalty kill and penalty habits #24); 5-on-5 matchup +0.12 (its attack ranks #18 of 32, PHI's defense #26); injuries +0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.4%); team speed +0.04 (it skates faster than PHI, +1.3%). PHI 2.31: 0.81 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.52 (its attack ranks #32 of 32, OTT's defense #5); power play -0.12 (its power play ranks #28, OTT's penalty kill and penalty habits #8); Linus Ullmark in goal -0.12 (a Good goalie, grade 76, -4.7%); team speed -0.03 (it skates slower than OTT, -1.1%); injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.9%). The model projects 5.77 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 38% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 4 goals (OTT 1, PHI 3), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.

7:00 PM ETAVOID

U 5.5 ✓ under

DAL#23 OFF / #2 DEF43.06●

J. Oettinger ✓ Good 69

CHI#31 OFF / #29 DEF02.58●

S. Knight ✓ Mid 53

4 goals · proj 5.65 · P(7+) 40%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
DAL	2.23	0.60	-2.4%	0.50	–	-1.7%	-4.2%
CHI	1.65	0.46	-3.8%	0.50	–	+1.2%	+1.3%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
DAL	1.90#24 of 32	2.39#32 of 32	2.23goals
CHI	1.79#30 of 32	1.88#4 of 32	1.65goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
DAL	0.63#10 of 32	0.53#6 of 32	0.60goals
CHI	0.44#30 of 32	0.58#19 of 32	0.46goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
DAL
Jason Robertson L	-5.2%	Plays
Wyatt Johnston C	-4.1%	OUT · IR
Mikko Rantanen R	-3.8%	Plays
Roope Hintz C	-2.5%	Plays
Miro Heiskanen D	-1.6%	Plays
CHI
Tyler Bertuzzi L	-2.4%	Plays
Connor Bedard C	-1.9%	Plays
Patrick Kane R	-1.0%	Plays
Frank Nazar C	-0.8%	Plays
Ryan Donato C	-0.7%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
DAL
Jason Robertson L	+1.5%	Plays
Miro Heiskanen D	+1.3%	Plays
Mikko Rantanen R	+1.1%	Plays
Thomas Harley D	+1.0%	Plays
Nils Lundkvist D	+0.9%	Plays
CHI
Tyler Bertuzzi L	+0.5%	Plays
Andrew Mangiapane L	+0.4%	OUT · IR
Patrick Kane R	+0.3%	Plays
Oliver Moore C	+0.3%	Plays
Ryan Donato C	+0.2%	Plays

Also out: DAL: Matt Duchene -1.4% attack, +0.3% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (5.66 → 5.65)

12:02 AM 5.66 first run
12:41 AM 5.66 DAL goalie Jake Oettinger: Projected → Likely; CHI goalie Spencer Knight: Projected → Likely
1:41 AM 5.66 no change
4:13 AM 5.66 no change
11:17 AM 5.65 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; CHI goalie Spencer Knight: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-101 → 6 o-125
12:18 PM 5.65 Line 6 o-125 → 6 o-105
12:45 PM 5.65 DAL goalie Jake Oettinger: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6 o-105 → 6 o-110
1:18 PM 5.65 Line 6 o-110 → 5.5 o-137
1:53 PM 5.65 no change
2:18 PM 5.65 no change
3:03 PM 5.65 no change
3:17 PM 5.65 no change
3:45 PM 5.65 no change
4:18 PM 5.65 no change
4:44 PM 5.65 no change
5:18 PM 5.65 Line 5.5 o-137 → 6 o-123
5:46 PM 5.65 Line 6 o-123 → 6 o-124
6:18 PM 5.65 no change
6:46 PM 5.65 CHI lineup: Scott Powers Oct 17 6:41 PM; Line 6 o-124 → 5.5 o-137

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: DAL and CHI project under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (DAL 3.06, CHI 2.58); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, DAL is great (2.23) and CHI is trash (1.65); on the power play, DAL is good (0.60) and CHI is bad (0.46). DAL faces Spencer Knight, a Mid goalie, grade 53 (-2.4%); CHI faces Jake Oettinger, a Good goalie, grade 69 (-3.8%). Other factors: injuries cost DAL 4.2%. DAL 3.06: 0.05 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.19 (its attack ranks #24 of 32, CHI's defense #32); power play +0.03 (its power play ranks #10, CHI's penalty kill and penalty habits #6). Holding it back: injuries -0.13 (missing players on both teams, net, -4.2%); Spencer Knight in goal -0.08 (a Mid goalie, grade 53, -2.4%); team speed -0.06 (it skates slower than CHI, -1.7%). CHI 2.58: 0.53 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.3%); team speed +0.03 (it skates faster than DAL, +1.2%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.39 (its attack ranks #30 of 32, DAL's defense #4); power play -0.11 (its power play ranks #30, DAL's penalty kill and penalty habits #19); Jake Oettinger in goal -0.10 (a Good goalie, grade 69, -3.8%). The model projects 5.65 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 40% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 6 to 5.5, toward the under. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 4 goals (DAL 4, CHI 0), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.

9:00 PM ETAVOID ⚠ lineup

U 5.5 ✓ under

BOS#19 OFF / #16 DEF42.70●

J. Swayman ✓ Strong 87

LAK#26 OFF / #10 DEF12.83●

A. Forsberg ✓ Mid 43

5 goals · proj 5.54 · P(7+) 40%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
BOS	1.95	0.62	-1.6%	0.51	-8.0%	-2.2%	-0.7%
LAK	1.83	0.52	-6.7%	0.50	+6.5%	+1.7%	-1.6%

Why this call

⚠ Lineup change since 12:02 AM: Pavel Zacha now OUT (was Plays, seen 8:18 PM) · BOS −2.4% · projection 5.76 → 5.54

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
BOS	2.18#8 of 32	1.82#2 of 32	1.95goals
LAK	1.79#29 of 32	2.08#20 of 32	1.83goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
BOS	0.58#15 of 32	0.59#21 of 32	0.62goals
LAK	0.49#27 of 32	0.58#20 of 32	0.52goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
BOS
David Pastrnak R	-4.3%	Plays
Morgan Geekie C	-3.4%	Plays
⚠ Pavel Zacha C	-2.5%	OUTwas Plays
Elias Lindholm C	-1.6%	Plays
Charlie McAvoy D	-1.0%	Plays
LAK
Artemi Panarin L	-4.0%	Plays
Adrian Kempe R	-3.4%	Plays
Quinton Byfield R	-1.6%	Plays
Kevin Fiala L	-1.3%	OUT · IR
Alex Laferriere R	-0.8%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
BOS
David Pastrnak R	+0.9%	Plays
Morgan Geekie C	+0.7%	Plays
Mason Lohrei D	+0.6%	Plays
Casey Mittelstadt C	+0.5%	Plays
Tanner Jeannot L	+0.3%	Plays
LAK
Brandt Clarke D	+1.8%	Plays
Artemi Panarin L	+1.2%	Plays
Adrian Kempe R	+1.2%	Plays
Kevin Fiala L	+0.9%	OUT · IR
Drew Doughty D	+0.9%	Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (5.76 → 5.54)

12:02 AM 5.76 first run
12:41 AM 5.77 +0.01LAK goalie: Anton Forsberg → Darcy Kuemper +0.01
1:41 AM 5.77 BOS goalie Michael DiPietro: Confirmed → Likely
4:13 AM 5.77 Pavel Zacha (BOS) day-to-day
11:17 AM 5.80 +0.03Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.06; BOS goalie Michael DiPietro: rating updated -0.03; Line 5.5 o-128 → 5.5 o-127
12:17 PM 5.62 -0.18BOS goalie: Michael DiPietro → Jeremy Swayman -0.18; BOS lineup: Belle Fraser Oct 17 11:30 AM
12:45 PM 5.62 no change
1:17 PM 5.61 -0.01LAK goalie: Darcy Kuemper → Anton Forsberg -0.01
1:53 PM 5.61 no change
2:18 PM 5.61 no change
3:03 PM 5.61 Line 5.5 o-127 → 5.5 o-126
3:17 PM 5.61 no change
3:45 PM 5.61 no change
4:18 PM 5.61 no change
4:44 PM 5.61 no change
5:18 PM 5.61 no change
5:46 PM 5.61 no change
6:18 PM 5.61 no change
6:46 PM 5.61 no change
7:12 PM 5.61 no change
7:18 PM 5.61 no change
7:46 PM 5.61 Line 5.5 o-126 → 5.5 o-125
8:18 PM 5.54 -0.07Injuries / lineup: Pavel Zacha (BOS) out -0.06; BOS goalie Jeremy Swayman: Likely → Confirmed; Line 5.5 o-125 → 5.5 o-122
8:46 PM 5.54 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Jonathan Aspirot (BOS) back in -0.01; BOS lineup: Boston Bruins Oct 17 8:43 PM; LAK lineup: Zach Dooley Oct 17 8:39 PM; Line 5.5 o-122 → 5.5 o-123

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: BOS and LAK project under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (BOS 2.70, LAK 2.83); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, BOS is mid (1.95) and LAK is bad (1.83); on the power play, BOS is good (0.62) and LAK is bad (0.52). BOS faces Anton Forsberg, a Mid goalie, grade 43 (-1.6%); LAK faces Jeremy Swayman, a Strong goalie, grade 87 (-6.7%). Other factors: BOS played yesterday (-8%); BOS's team speed costs 2.2%; LAK's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); injuries cost LAK 1.6%. BOS 2.70: 0.41 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: power play +0.04 (its power play ranks #15, LAK's penalty kill and penalty habits #21). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.24 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.09 (its attack ranks #8 of 32, LAK's defense #2); team speed -0.06 (it skates slower than LAK, -2.2%); Anton Forsberg in goal -0.05 (a Mid goalie, grade 43, -1.6%); injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.7%). LAK 2.83: 0.28 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.17 (BOS played yesterday, +6.5%); team speed +0.05 (it skates faster than BOS, +1.7%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.21 (its attack ranks #29 of 32, BOS's defense #20); Jeremy Swayman in goal -0.19 (a Strong goalie, grade 87, -6.7%); power play -0.06 (its power play ranks #27, BOS's penalty kill and penalty habits #20); injuries -0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.6%). The model projects 5.54 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 40% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (BOS 4, LAK 1), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.