NHL Total Model · 2026-10-07

Team

5-on-5

Power play

OFF

OPP DEF

Proj

OFF

OPP DEF

Proj

COL

2.58#1 of 32

2.15#25 of 32

2.72goals

0.62#11 of 32

0.56#19 of 32

0.64goals

WPG

1.93#22 of 32

1.94#7 of 32

1.83goals

0.63#10 of 32

0.52#6 of 32

0.60goals

Team

Top 5 attackers

Top 5 defenders

Player

If out

Played?

Player

If out

Played?

COL

Nathan MacKinnon C

-6.6%

Played

Sam Malinski D

+1.5%

Played

Martin Necas C

-4.9%

Played

Martin Necas C

+1.4%

Played

Cale Makar D

-3.2%

Played

Nathan MacKinnon C

+1.2%

Played

Brock Nelson C

-2.7%

Played

Cale Makar D

+0.8%

Played

Artturi Lehkonen L

-2.4%

Played

Brett Kulak D

+0.8%

Played

WPG

Kyle Connor L

-5.0%

Played

Cole Perfetti C

+1.3%

Played

Mark Scheifele C

-4.5%

Played

Josh Morrissey D

+1.1%

Played

Gabriel Vilardi C

-2.8%

Played

Nino Niederreiter R

+0.9%

Didn't play

Josh Morrissey D

-1.5%

Played

Alex Iafallo L

+0.6%

Played

Cole Perfetti C

-1.4%

Played

Vladislav Namestnikov C

+0.6%

Played

Team

5-on-5

Power play

OFF

OPP DEF

Proj

OFF

OPP DEF

Proj

PIT

2.30#2 of 32

2.14#23 of 32

2.41goals

0.64#7 of 32

0.68#31 of 32

0.79goals

WSH

2.18#9 of 32

2.05#19 of 32

2.19goals

0.50#24 of 32

0.47#2 of 32

0.42goals

Team

Top 5 attackers

Top 5 defenders

Player

If out

Played?

Player

If out

Played?

PIT

Sidney Crosby C

-3.6%

Played

Tommy Novak C

+1.0%

Played

Bryan Rust R

-2.9%

Played

Ben Kindel C

+0.9%

Played

Rickard Rakell R

-2.7%

Played

Samuel Girard D

+0.8%

Played

Evgeni Malkin C

-2.5%

Played

Egor Chinakhov R

+0.6%

Played

Erik Karlsson D

-1.8%

Played

Evgeni Malkin C

+0.4%

Played

WSH

Alex Ovechkin L

-3.6%

Played

Jakob Chychrun D

+1.2%

Played

Tom Wilson R

-3.2%

Played

Rasmus Sandin D

+0.7%

Didn't play

Dylan Strome C

-2.6%

Played

Justin Sourdif C

+0.7%

Played

Jakob Chychrun D

-2.6%

Played

Dylan Strome C

+0.5%

Played

Aliaksei Protas L

-1.7%

Played

Ryan Leonard R

+0.5%

Played

Team

5-on-5

Power play

OFF

OPP DEF

Proj

OFF

OPP DEF

Proj

EDM

2.25#4 of 32

2.11#21 of 32

2.31goals

0.68#3 of 32

0.63#27 of 32

0.77goals

ANA

2.12#12 of 32

1.97#12 of 32

2.04goals

0.58#15 of 32

0.54#11 of 32

0.57goals

Team

Top 5 attackers

Top 5 defenders

Player

If out

Played?

Player

If out

Played?

EDM

Connor McDavid C

-7.9%

Played

Connor McDavid C

+1.6%

Played

Leon Draisaitl C

-5.9%

Played

Leon Draisaitl C

+1.4%

Played

Evan Bouchard D

-4.6%

Played

Evan Bouchard D

+1.4%

Played

Zach Hyman L

-3.3%

Didn't play

Vasily Podkolzin R

+1.3%

Played

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C

-2.2%

Didn't play

Zach Hyman L

+0.7%

Didn't play

ANA

Cutter Gauthier L

-3.1%

Played

Leo Carlsson C

+0.6%

Played

Leo Carlsson C

-3.0%

Played

Beckett Sennecke R

+0.6%

Played

Beckett Sennecke R

-3.0%

Played

Ian Moore D

+0.5%

Didn't play

Mikael Granlund C

-1.9%

Played

Cutter Gauthier L

+0.5%

Played

Troy Terry R

-1.9%

Didn't play

Jackson LaCombe D

+0.4%

Played

7:30 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

COL#1 OFF / #2 DEF23.97●

M. Blackwood ✓ Mid 50

WPG#16 OFF / #22 DEF32.58●

S. Skinner ✓ Mid 47

5 goals · proj 6.55 · P(7+) 51%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
COL	2.72	0.64	-2.0%	0.40	–	+7.1%	+0.7%
WPG	1.83	0.60	-2.2%	0.40	–	-6.6%	–

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
COL	2.58#1 of 32	2.15#25 of 32	2.72goals
WPG	1.93#22 of 32	1.94#7 of 32	1.83goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
COL	0.62#11 of 32	0.56#19 of 32	0.64goals
WPG	0.63#10 of 32	0.52#6 of 32	0.60goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
COL
Nathan MacKinnon C	-6.6%	Played
Martin Necas C	-4.9%	Played
Cale Makar D	-3.2%	Played
Brock Nelson C	-2.7%	Played
Artturi Lehkonen L	-2.4%	Played
WPG
Kyle Connor L	-5.0%	Played
Mark Scheifele C	-4.5%	Played
Gabriel Vilardi C	-2.8%	Played
Josh Morrissey D	-1.5%	Played
Cole Perfetti C	-1.4%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
COL
Sam Malinski D	+1.5%	Played
Martin Necas C	+1.4%	Played
Nathan MacKinnon C	+1.2%	Played
Cale Makar D	+0.8%	Played
Brett Kulak D	+0.8%	Played
WPG
Cole Perfetti C	+1.3%	Played
Josh Morrissey D	+1.1%	Played
Nino Niederreiter R	+0.9%	Didn't play
Alex Iafallo L	+0.6%	Played
Vladislav Namestnikov C	+0.6%	Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.50 → 6.55)

2:13 AM 6.50 first run
3:19 AM 6.50 no change
12:18 PM 6.55 +0.06COL goalie: Scott Wedgewood → Mackenzie Blackwood +0.05; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.01; COL lineup: Bailey Curtis Oct 7 11:04 AM; WPG lineup: Mitchell Clinton Oct 7 10:48 AM; Line 6.5 o-108 → 6.5 o-106
1:17 PM 6.55 Line 6.5 o-106 → 6.5 o-109
2:17 PM 6.55 no change
3:17 PM 6.55 Line 6.5 o-109 → 6.5 o-110
4:17 PM 6.55 WPG goalie Stuart Skinner: Likely → Confirmed
4:40 PM 6.55 Line 6.5 o-110 → 6.5 o-109
5:17 PM 6.55 no change
6:17 PM 6.55 WPG lineup: Ken Wiebe Oct 7 6:06 PM; Line 6.5 o-109 → 6.5 o-110
7:17 PM 6.55 no change

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: WPG projects under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (WPG 2.58). The 6.55 total looks high, but most of it comes from COL; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, COL is great (2.72) and WPG is bad (1.83); on the power play, COL is good (0.64) and WPG is good (0.60). COL faces Stuart Skinner, a Mid goalie, grade 47 (-2.0%); WPG faces Mackenzie Blackwood, a Mid goalie, grade 50 (-2.2%). Other factors: COL's team speed adds 7.1%; WPG's team speed costs 6.6%. COL 3.97: 0.95 goals above what an average team would score (3.02). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.67 (its attack ranks #1 of 32, WPG's defense #25); team speed +0.26 (it skates faster than WPG, +7.1%); power play +0.07 (its power play ranks #11, WPG's penalty kill and penalty habits #19); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.7%). Holding it back: Stuart Skinner in goal -0.07 (a Mid goalie, grade 47, -2.0%). WPG 2.58: 0.43 goals below what an average team would score (3.02). Pushing it up: power play +0.03 (its power play ranks #10, COL's penalty kill and penalty habits #6). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.21 (its attack ranks #22 of 32, COL's defense #7); team speed -0.18 (it skates slower than COL, -6.6%); Mackenzie Blackwood in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 50, -2.2%). The model projects 6.55 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 51% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (COL 2, WPG 3), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

7:30 PM ET🔨 SLAM

O 6.5 W
paper W +0.89u

PIT#5 OFF / #13 DEF33.27●

A. Silovs ✓ Trash 1

WSH#13 OFF / #17 DEF53.28●

L. Thompson ✓ Strong 92

8 goals · proj 6.55 · P(7+) 51%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
PIT	2.41	0.79	-8.0%	0.40	–	-2.4%	+1.0%
WSH	2.19	0.42	+4.7%	0.40	–	+2.4%	+1.7%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
PIT	2.30#2 of 32	2.14#23 of 32	2.41goals
WSH	2.18#9 of 32	2.05#19 of 32	2.19goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
PIT	0.64#7 of 32	0.68#31 of 32	0.79goals
WSH	0.50#24 of 32	0.47#2 of 32	0.42goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
PIT
Sidney Crosby C	-3.6%	Played
Bryan Rust R	-2.9%	Played
Rickard Rakell R	-2.7%	Played
Evgeni Malkin C	-2.5%	Played
Erik Karlsson D	-1.8%	Played
WSH
Alex Ovechkin L	-3.6%	Played
Tom Wilson R	-3.2%	Played
Dylan Strome C	-2.6%	Played
Jakob Chychrun D	-2.6%	Played
Aliaksei Protas L	-1.7%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
PIT
Tommy Novak C	+1.0%	Played
Ben Kindel C	+0.9%	Played
Samuel Girard D	+0.8%	Played
Egor Chinakhov R	+0.6%	Played
Evgeni Malkin C	+0.4%	Played
WSH
Jakob Chychrun D	+1.2%	Played
Rasmus Sandin D	+0.7%	Didn't play
Justin Sourdif C	+0.7%	Played
Dylan Strome C	+0.5%	Played
Ryan Leonard R	+0.5%	Played

How the projection moved on game day (6.41 → 6.55)

2:13 AM 6.41 first run
3:19 AM 6.41 no change
12:18 PM 6.46 +0.06Injuries / lineup: Matt Roy (WSH) out +0.03; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.03; PIT goalie Arturs Silovs: Likely → Confirmed; WSH goalie Logan Thompson: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-114 → 6.5 o-112
1:17 PM 6.46 no change
2:17 PM 6.46 Line 6.5 o-112 → 6.5 o-111
3:17 PM 6.46 Line 6.5 o-111 → 6.5 o-112
4:17 PM 6.46 Line 6.5 o-112 → 6.5 o-111
4:40 PM 6.46 no change
5:17 PM 6.55 +0.09Injuries / lineup: Bryan Rust (PIT) back in +0.08; Bryan Rust (PIT) day-to-day
6:17 PM 6.55 no change
7:17 PM 6.55 Line 6.5 o-111 → 6.5 o-112

🔨 SLAM: both teams project as high-scoring (PIT 3.27, WSH 3.28; cutoff 2.98), the line is 6.5, and both are good or better at 5-on-5, the strongest over spot the model has. At 5-on-5, PIT is great (2.41) and WSH is good (2.19); on the power play, PIT is great (0.79) and WSH is trash (0.42). PIT faces Logan Thompson, a Strong goalie, grade 92 (-8.0%); WSH faces Arturs Silovs, a Trash goalie, grade 1 (+4.7%). Only PIT faces a Strong or Good goalie, so the avoid rule for two Strong / Good goalies doesn't apply. Other factors: PIT's team speed costs 2.4%; WSH's team speed adds 2.4%; injuries help WSH 1.7%. PIT 3.27: 0.25 goals above what an average team would score (3.02). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.36 (its attack ranks #2 of 32, WSH's defense #23); power play +0.22 (its power play ranks #7, WSH's penalty kill and penalty habits #31); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.0%). Holding it back: Logan Thompson in goal -0.29 (a Strong goalie, grade 92, -8.0%); team speed -0.08 (it skates slower than WSH, -2.4%). WSH 3.28: 0.27 goals above what an average team would score (3.02). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.15 (its attack ranks #9 of 32, PIT's defense #19); Arturs Silovs in goal +0.14 (a Trash goalie, grade 1, +4.7%); team speed +0.08 (it skates faster than PIT, +2.4%); injuries +0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.7%). Holding it back: power play -0.15 (its power play ranks #24, PIT's penalty kill and penalty habits #2). The model projects 6.55 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 51% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over 55% of the time at the opening line and 56.5% at the closing line in 2021-26. Final: 8 goals (PIT 3, WSH 5), so it went over 6.5 and the call was right.

10:00 PM ET1U

O 6.5 W
paper W +0.69u

EDM#3 OFF / #16 DEF53.43●

D. Levi ✓ Trash 15

ANA#9 OFF / #27 DEF23.01●

L. Dostal ✓ OK 35

7 goals · proj 6.44 · P(7+) 50%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
EDM	2.31	0.77	-1.0%	0.40	–	+2.9%	-3.4%
ANA	2.04	0.57	+1.2%	0.40	–	-2.1%	+0.8%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
EDM	2.25#4 of 32	2.11#21 of 32	2.31goals
ANA	2.12#12 of 32	1.97#12 of 32	2.04goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
EDM	0.68#3 of 32	0.63#27 of 32	0.77goals
ANA	0.58#15 of 32	0.54#11 of 32	0.57goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
EDM
Connor McDavid C	-7.9%	Played
Leon Draisaitl C	-5.9%	Played
Evan Bouchard D	-4.6%	Played
Zach Hyman L	-3.3%	Didn't play
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C	-2.2%	Didn't play
ANA
Cutter Gauthier L	-3.1%	Played
Leo Carlsson C	-3.0%	Played
Beckett Sennecke R	-3.0%	Played
Mikael Granlund C	-1.9%	Played
Troy Terry R	-1.9%	Didn't play

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
EDM
Connor McDavid C	+1.6%	Played
Leon Draisaitl C	+1.4%	Played
Evan Bouchard D	+1.4%	Played
Vasily Podkolzin R	+1.3%	Played
Zach Hyman L	+0.7%	Didn't play
ANA
Leo Carlsson C	+0.6%	Played
Beckett Sennecke R	+0.6%	Played
Ian Moore D	+0.5%	Didn't play
Cutter Gauthier L	+0.5%	Played
Jackson LaCombe D	+0.4%	Played

How the projection moved on game day (6.44 → 6.44)

2:13 AM 6.44 first run
3:19 AM 6.44 Line 6.5 o-136 → 6.5 o-135
12:18 PM 6.45 +0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.01; Line 6.5 o-135 → 6.5 o-137
1:17 PM 6.45 ANA lineup: Zach Cavanagh Oct 7 1:10 PM
2:17 PM 6.45 ANA goalie Lukas Dostal: Likely → Confirmed
3:17 PM 6.42 -0.03Injuries / lineup: Jason Dickinson (EDM) back in, Spencer Stastney (EDM) back in -0.03; Jason Dickinson (EDM) day-to-day; Line 6.5 o-137 → 6.5 o-136
4:17 PM 6.42 no change
4:40 PM 6.42 no change
5:17 PM 6.44 +0.02Injuries / lineup: Colton Dach (EDM) out +0.02; EDM lineup: Oct 7 4:59 PM; Line 6.5 o-136 → 6.5 o-140
6:17 PM 6.44 Line 6.5 o-140 → 6.5 o-141
7:17 PM 6.44 Line 6.5 o-141 → 6.5 o-145
8:17 PM 6.44 no change
9:04 PM 6.44 Line 6.5 o-145 → 6.5 o-143
9:17 PM 6.44 no change
9:45 PM 6.44 Line 6.5 o-143 → 6.5 o-149

1U: both teams project as high-scoring (EDM 3.43, ANA 3.01; cutoff 2.98) and the line is 6.5; EDM is great at 5-on-5 and can carry the over, but ANA is only mid, so it's an over but not a slam. At 5-on-5, EDM is great (2.31) and ANA is mid (2.04); on the power play, EDM is great (0.77) and ANA is mid (0.57). EDM faces Lukas Dostal, an OK goalie, grade 35 (-1.0%); ANA faces Devon Levi, a Trash goalie, grade 15 (+1.2%). Other factors: EDM's team speed adds 2.9%; injuries cost EDM 3.4%; ANA's team speed costs 2.1%. EDM 3.43: 0.42 goals above what an average team would score (3.02). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.27 (its attack ranks #4 of 32, ANA's defense #21); power play +0.20 (its power play ranks #3, ANA's penalty kill and penalty habits #27); team speed +0.10 (it skates faster than ANA, +2.9%). Holding it back: injuries -0.12 (missing players on both teams, net, -3.4%); Lukas Dostal in goal -0.04 (an OK goalie, grade 35, -1.0%). ANA 3.01: 0.01 goals below what an average team would score (3.02). Pushing it up: Devon Levi in goal +0.04 (a Trash goalie, grade 15, +1.2%); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.8%). Holding it back: team speed -0.06 (it skates slower than EDM, -2.1%). The model projects 6.44 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 50% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over 58% of the time at the opening line and 59% at the closing line in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (EDM 5, ANA 2), so it went over 6.5 and the call was right.