NHL Total Model · 2026-10-22

10:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

UTA#5 OFF / #7 DEF33.79●

K. Vejmelka ✓ OK 37

SEA#28 OFF / #26 DEF52.94●

P. Grubauer ✓ Trash 11

8 goals · proj 6.73 · P(7+) 50%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
UTA	2.45	0.68	+1.9%	0.48	–	+3.7%	-0.6%
SEA	2.01	0.50	-1.2%	0.49	–	-3.5%	+2.9%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
UTA	2.26#6 of 32	2.20#27 of 32	2.45goals
SEA	2.11#12 of 32	1.94#10 of 32	2.01goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
UTA	0.71#2 of 32	0.53#6 of 32	0.68goals
SEA	0.51#27 of 32	0.54#8 of 32	0.50goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
UTA
Dylan Guenther R	-3.9%	Plays
Clayton Keller R	-3.9%	Plays
Nick Schmaltz C	-3.6%	Plays
Logan Cooley C	-2.5%	Plays
Mikhail Sergachev D	-1.6%	Plays
SEA
Jared McCann L	-2.0%	Plays
Jordan Eberle R	-1.9%	Plays
Bobby McMann C	-1.4%	Plays
Matty Beniers C	-1.1%	Plays
Shane Wright C	-0.9%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
UTA
Clayton Keller R	+1.6%	Plays
Nate Schmidt D	+1.4%	Plays
Barrett Hayton C	+1.1%	Plays
Nick Schmaltz C	+1.0%	Plays
John Marino D	+0.9%	OUT
SEA
Jordan Eberle R	+0.8%	Plays
Matty Beniers C	+0.8%	Plays
Shane Wright C	+0.8%	Plays
Ryker Evans D	+0.7%	Plays
Brandon Montour D	+0.7%	Plays

Also out: UTA: Michael Carcone -0.6% attack, +0.7% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.64 → 6.73)

12:02 AM 6.64 first run
1:01 AM 6.64 UTA goalie Karel Vejmelka: Projected → Likely; SEA goalie Joey Daccord: Projected → Likely
5:08 AM 6.64 no change
11:18 AM 6.63 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 6.5 o-105 → 6.5 o-110
12:18 PM 6.63 no change
1:17 PM 6.63 no change
2:17 PM 6.63 SEA lineup: Mike Benton Oct 22 2:12 PM; Line 6.5 o-110 → 6.5 o-111
3:16 PM 6.63 no change
3:17 PM 6.63 no change
4:36 PM 6.63 Line 6.5 o-111 → 6.5 o-110
5:18 PM 6.63 Line 6.5 o-110 → 6.5 o-111
6:18 PM 6.63 no change
6:30 PM 6.63 no change
6:45 PM 6.63 no change
7:18 PM 6.63 no change
7:45 PM 6.63 no change
8:18 PM 6.63 no change
8:45 PM 6.63 no change
9:17 PM 6.63 Line 6.5 o-111 → 6.5 o-110
9:37 PM 6.72 +0.09SEA goalie: Joey Daccord → Philipp Grubauer +0.09; UTA goalie Karel Vejmelka: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-110 → 6.5 o-112
9:45 PM 6.73 +0.01Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated +0.01

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: SEA projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (SEA 2.94). The 6.73 total looks high, but most of it comes from UTA; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, UTA is great (2.45) and SEA is mid (2.01); on the power play, UTA is great (0.68) and SEA is bad (0.50). UTA faces Philipp Grubauer, a Trash goalie, grade 11 (+1.9%); SEA faces Karel Vejmelka, an OK goalie, grade 37 (-1.2%). Other factors: UTA's team speed adds 3.7%; SEA's team speed costs 3.5%; injuries help SEA 2.9%. UTA 3.79: 0.68 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.41 (its attack ranks #6 of 32, SEA's defense #27); team speed +0.14 (it skates faster than SEA, +3.7%); power play +0.10 (its power play ranks #2, SEA's penalty kill and penalty habits #6); Philipp Grubauer in goal +0.07 (a Trash goalie, grade 11, +1.9%). Holding it back: injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.6%). SEA 2.94: 0.16 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: injuries +0.08 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.9%). Holding it back: team speed -0.10 (it skates slower than UTA, -3.5%); power play -0.08 (its power play ranks #27, UTA's penalty kill and penalty habits #8); Karel Vejmelka in goal -0.04 (an OK goalie, grade 37, -1.2%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.03 (its attack ranks #12 of 32, UTA's defense #10). The model projects 6.73 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 50% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 8 goals (UTA 3, SEA 5), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

9:00 PM ET🔨 SLAM

O 6.5 W
paper W +0.76u

CAR#1 OFF / #1 DEF53.28●

B. Bussi ✓ OK 22

EDM#6 OFF / #13 DEF63.38●

D. Levi ✓ OK 28

11 goals · proj 6.66 · P(7+) 53%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
CAR	2.31	0.71	-0.4%	0.49	–	-3.3%	-2.8%
EDM	2.06	0.59	+0.2%	0.48	–	+4.0%	+3.7%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CAR	2.41#2 of 32	1.95#11 of 32	2.31goals
EDM	2.20#7 of 32	1.90#7 of 32	2.06goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CAR	0.69#4 of 32	0.57#15 of 32	0.71goals
EDM	0.67#5 of 32	0.48#3 of 32	0.59goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
CAR
Sebastian Aho C	-4.5%	Plays
Andrei Svechnikov R	-4.1%	Plays
Nikolaj Ehlers L	-3.4%	Plays
Jackson Blake R	-2.6%	Plays
Logan Stankoven C	-2.3%	Plays
EDM
Connor McDavid C	-8.0%	Plays
Leon Draisaitl C	-6.5%	Plays
Evan Bouchard D	-4.8%	Plays
Zach Hyman L	-2.9%	Plays
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C	-1.6%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
CAR
Jackson Blake R	+1.8%	Plays
Shayne Gostisbehere D	+1.6%	Plays
Nikolaj Ehlers L	+1.5%	Plays
Sean Walker D	+1.4%	Plays
Logan Stankoven C	+1.4%	Plays
EDM
Connor McDavid C	+1.5%	Plays
Leon Draisaitl C	+1.5%	Plays
Evan Bouchard D	+1.4%	Plays
Vasily Podkolzin R	+1.3%	Plays
Zach Hyman L	+0.7%	Plays

Also out: CAR: Taylor Hall -1.3% attack, +0.8% defense; Mark Jankowski -0.7% attack, +0.8% defense; Jordan Staal -0.7% attack, +0.4% defense

How the projection moved on game day (6.62 → 6.66)

12:02 AM 6.62 first run
1:01 AM 6.62 CAR goalie Brandon Bussi: Projected → Likely; EDM goalie Devon Levi: Projected → Likely
5:08 AM 6.62 no change
11:18 AM 6.61 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01
12:18 PM 6.61 Line 6.5 o-110 → 6.5 o-111
1:17 PM 6.66 +0.05Injuries / lineup: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (EDM) back in +0.05; EDM goalie Devon Levi: Likely → Confirmed; EDM lineup: Jason Gregor Oct 22 12:57 PM
2:17 PM 6.66 CAR goalie Brandon Bussi: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-111 → 6.5 o-115
3:16 PM 6.66 Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-118
3:17 PM 6.66 no change
4:36 PM 6.66 no change
5:18 PM 6.66 no change
6:18 PM 6.66 Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-120
6:30 PM 6.66 no change
6:45 PM 6.66 no change
7:18 PM 6.66 Line 6.5 o-120 → 6.5 o-121
7:45 PM 6.66 no change
8:18 PM 6.66 Line 6.5 o-121 → 6.5 o-123
8:45 PM 6.66 Line 6.5 o-123 → 6.5 o-122

🔨 SLAM: both teams project as high-scoring (CAR 3.28, EDM 3.38; cutoff 3.10), the line is 6.5, and both are good or better at 5-on-5, the strongest over spot the model has. At 5-on-5, CAR is great (2.31) and EDM is good (2.06); on the power play, CAR is great (0.71) and EDM is mid (0.59). CAR faces Devon Levi, an OK goalie, grade 28 (-0.4%); EDM faces Brandon Bussi, an OK goalie, grade 22 (+0.2%). Other factors: CAR's team speed costs 3.3%; injuries cost CAR 2.8%; EDM's team speed adds 4.0%; injuries help EDM 3.7%. CAR 3.28: 0.17 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.27 (its attack ranks #2 of 32, EDM's defense #11); power play +0.13 (its power play ranks #4, EDM's penalty kill and penalty habits #15). Holding it back: team speed -0.12 (it skates slower than EDM, -3.3%); injuries -0.09 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.8%); Devon Levi in goal -0.01 (an OK goalie, grade 28, -0.4%). EDM 3.38: 0.27 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: team speed +0.12 (it skates faster than CAR, +4.0%); injuries +0.12 (missing players on both teams, net, +3.7%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.02 (its attack ranks #7 of 32, CAR's defense #7); power play +0.01 (its power play ranks #5, CAR's penalty kill and penalty habits #3). The model projects 6.66 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 53% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over 55% of the time at the opening line and 56.5% at the closing line in 2021-26. Final: 11 goals (CAR 5, EDM 6), so it went over 6.5 and the call was right.

10:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

DET#16 OFF / #17 DEF53.76●

J. Gibson ✓ OK 35

VAN#30 OFF / #32 DEF22.85●

K. Lankinen ✓ Trash 1

7 goals · proj 6.61 · P(7+) 49%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
DET	2.19	0.82	+6.2%	0.48	–	+0.8%	+0.9%
VAN	1.76	0.64	-1.0%	0.49	–	-1.0%	+0.8%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
DET	1.87#25 of 32	2.39#32 of 32	2.19goals
VAN	1.78#30 of 32	2.01#14 of 32	1.76goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
DET	0.65#7 of 32	0.69#31 of 32	0.82goals
VAN	0.57#17 of 32	0.62#24 of 32	0.64goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
DET
Alex DeBrincat R	-5.5%	Plays
Lucas Raymond L	-3.7%	Plays
Dylan Larkin C	-3.4%	Plays
Moritz Seider D	-1.1%	Plays
Viktor Arvidsson L	-1.1%	Plays
VAN
Brock Boeser R	-1.8%	Plays
Jake DeBrusk L	-1.7%	Plays
Elias Pettersson C	-1.7%	Plays
Marco Rossi C	-1.1%	Day-to-day
Linus Karlsson C	-1.0%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
DET
Moritz Seider D	+1.4%	Plays
Alex DeBrincat R	+1.3%	Plays
Lucas Raymond L	+1.3%	Plays
Emmitt Finnie C	+0.8%	Plays
Dylan Larkin C	+0.6%	Plays
VAN
Linus Karlsson C	+0.7%	Plays
Jake DeBrusk L	+0.5%	Plays
Marco Rossi C	+0.5%	Day-to-day
Elias Pettersson C	+0.4%	Plays
Tom Willander D	+0.4%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (6.63 → 6.61)

12:02 AM 6.63 first run
1:01 AM 6.63 DET goalie John Gibson: Projected → Likely; VAN goalie Kevin Lankinen: Projected → Likely
5:08 AM 6.63 no change
11:18 AM 6.62 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 6.5 o-103 → 6.5 o-102
12:18 PM 6.62 no change
1:17 PM 6.62 no change
2:17 PM 6.62 no change
3:16 PM 6.61 -0.01Injuries / lineup: J.T. Compher (DET) back in -0.01; J.T. Compher (DET) day-to-day; Line 6.5 o-102 → 6.5 o-104
3:17 PM 6.61 Line 6.5 o-104 → 6.5 o-102
4:36 PM 6.61 no change
5:18 PM 6.61 no change
6:18 PM 6.61 no change
6:30 PM 6.61 no change
6:45 PM 6.61 no change
7:18 PM 6.61 no change
7:45 PM 6.61 no change
8:18 PM 6.61 no change
8:45 PM 6.61 no change
9:17 PM 6.61 no change
9:37 PM 6.61 DET goalie John Gibson: Likely → Confirmed; VAN goalie Kevin Lankinen: Likely → Confirmed
9:45 PM 6.61 no change

AVOID: VAN projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (VAN 2.85). The 6.61 total looks high, but most of it comes from DET; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, DET is great (2.19) and VAN is trash (1.76); on the power play, DET is great (0.82) and VAN is good (0.64). DET faces Kevin Lankinen, a Trash goalie, grade 1 (+6.2%); VAN faces John Gibson, an OK goalie, grade 35 (-1.0%). DET 3.76: 0.66 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: power play +0.24 (its power play ranks #7, VAN's penalty kill and penalty habits #31); Kevin Lankinen in goal +0.22 (a Trash goalie, grade 1, +6.2%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.15 (its attack ranks #25 of 32, VAN's defense #32); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.9%); team speed +0.03 (it skates faster than VAN, +0.8%). VAN 2.85: 0.26 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: power play +0.06 (its power play ranks #17, DET's penalty kill and penalty habits #24); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.8%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.28 (its attack ranks #30 of 32, DET's defense #14); team speed -0.03 (it skates slower than DET, -1.0%); John Gibson in goal -0.03 (an OK goalie, grade 35, -1.0%). The model projects 6.61 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 49% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (DET 5, VAN 2), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

7:00 PM ET🔨 SLAM ⚠ lineup

U 6.5 L
paper L -1.00u

FLA#10 OFF / #12 DEF03.23●

C. Black ✓ OK 24

PIT#9 OFF / #25 DEF43.33●

A. Silovs ✓ Trash 1

4 goals · proj 6.56 · P(7+) 52%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
FLA	2.07	0.77	+4.7%	0.49	-8.0%	+0.6%	–
PIT	2.12	0.64	–	0.48	+6.5%	-0.8%	-2.7%

Why this call

⚠ Lineup change since 12:02 AM: Bryan Rust now OUT (was Day-to-day, seen 11:18 AM) · PIT −2.7% · projection 6.65 → 6.56

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
FLA	1.96#20 of 32	2.14#23 of 32	2.07goals
PIT	2.27#5 of 32	1.90#6 of 32	2.12goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
FLA	0.79#1 of 32	0.54#7 of 32	0.77goals
PIT	0.59#14 of 32	0.60#22 of 32	0.64goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
FLA
Sam Reinhart C	-3.7%	Plays
Matthew Tkachuk L	-3.2%	Plays
Carter Verhaeghe C	-3.1%	Plays
Sam Bennett C	-3.1%	Plays
Brad Marchand L	-1.7%	OUT · IR
PIT
Sidney Crosby C	-3.8%	Plays
Rickard Rakell R	-2.9%	Plays
⚠ Bryan Rust R	-2.7%	OUT · IRwas Day-to-day
Evgeni Malkin C	-2.6%	Plays
Erik Karlsson D	-1.9%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
FLA
Carter Verhaeghe C	+0.8%	Plays
Niko Mikkola D	+0.8%	Plays
Sam Reinhart C	+0.7%	Plays
Uvis Balinskis D	+0.7%	Plays
Sam Bennett C	+0.7%	Plays
PIT
Tommy Novak C	+1.0%	Plays
Ben Kindel C	+0.8%	OUT · IR
Samuel Girard D	+0.8%	OUT
Kaedan Korczak D	+0.6%	Plays
Egor Chinakhov R	+0.5%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (6.65 → 6.56)

12:02 AM 6.65 first run
1:01 AM 6.74 +0.09PIT goalie: Sergei Murashov → Arturs Silovs +0.09
5:08 AM 6.64 -0.10PIT goalie: Arturs Silovs → Sergei Murashov -0.09; FLA goalie: Akira Schmid → Cooper Black -0.01; Line 6.5 o-142 → 6.5 o-143
11:18 AM 6.55 -0.09Injuries / lineup: Bryan Rust (PIT) out, Elmer Soderblom (PIT) back in -0.11; PIT goalie: Sergei Murashov → Arturs Silovs +0.09; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.07; FLA lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-21); PIT lineup: @PensInsideScoop Oct 22 10:43 AM; Line 6.5 o-143 → 6.5 o-130
12:18 PM 6.57 +0.02Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated +0.02; Line 6.5 o-130 → 6.5 o-125
1:17 PM 6.57 Line 6.5 o-125 → 6.5 o-128
2:17 PM 6.57 FLA goalie Cooper Black: Likely → Confirmed
3:16 PM 6.57 Line 6.5 o-128 → 6.5 o-129
3:17 PM 6.57 no change
4:36 PM 6.56 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Sandis Vilmanis (FLA) out, Uvis Balinskis (FLA) back in -0.01; Line 6.5 o-129 → 6.5 o-128
5:18 PM 6.56 Line 6.5 o-128 → 6.5 o-129
6:18 PM 6.56 Line 6.5 o-129 → 6.5 o-127
6:30 PM 6.56 no change
6:45 PM 6.56 no change

🔨 SLAM: both teams project as high-scoring (FLA 3.23, PIT 3.33; cutoff 3.10), the line is 6.5, and both are good or better at 5-on-5, the strongest over spot the model has. At 5-on-5, FLA is good (2.07) and PIT is good (2.12); on the power play, FLA is great (0.77) and PIT is good (0.64). FLA faces Arturs Silovs, a Trash goalie, grade 1 (+4.7%); PIT faces Cooper Black, an OK goalie, grade 24 (-0.0%). Other factors: FLA played yesterday (-8%); PIT's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); injuries cost PIT 2.7%. FLA 3.23: 0.12 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: power play +0.20 (its power play ranks #1, PIT's penalty kill and penalty habits #7); Arturs Silovs in goal +0.16 (a Trash goalie, grade 1, +4.7%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.03 (its attack ranks #20 of 32, PIT's defense #23); team speed +0.02 (it skates faster than PIT, +0.6%). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.28 (it played yesterday, -8.0%). PIT 3.33: 0.22 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.21 (FLA played yesterday, +6.5%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.08 (its attack ranks #5 of 32, FLA's defense #6); power play +0.06 (its power play ranks #14, FLA's penalty kill and penalty habits #22). Holding it back: injuries -0.09 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.7%); team speed -0.03 (it skates slower than FLA, -0.8%). The model projects 6.56 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 52% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over 55% of the time at the opening line and 56.5% at the closing line in 2021-26. Final: 4 goals (FLA 0, PIT 4), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was wrong.

7:00 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

ANA#12 OFF / #27 DEF13.00●

V. Husso ✓ Trash 9

NJD#8 OFF / #10 DEF43.46●

N. Daws ✓ Trash 17

5 goals · proj 6.47 · P(7+) 49%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
ANA	1.92	0.53	+0.9%	0.48	–	+2.3%	-0.6%
NJD	2.31	0.66	+2.2%	0.48	–	-2.3%	+0.3%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
ANA	2.04#15 of 32	1.92#8 of 32	1.92goals
NJD	2.07#13 of 32	2.27#30 of 32	2.31goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
ANA	0.57#16 of 32	0.51#4 of 32	0.53goals
NJD	0.58#15 of 32	0.62#25 of 32	0.66goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
ANA
Leo Carlsson C	-3.1%	Plays
Beckett Sennecke R	-3.1%	Plays
Cutter Gauthier L	-3.0%	Plays
Mikael Granlund C	-1.9%	Plays
Troy Terry R	-1.3%	OUT · IR
NJD
Jack Hughes C	-4.0%	Plays
Nico Hischier C	-3.5%	Plays
Jesper Bratt L	-3.4%	Plays
Timo Meier R	-1.9%	Plays
Dougie Hamilton D	-1.4%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
ANA
Leo Carlsson C	+0.7%	Plays
Beckett Sennecke R	+0.5%	Plays
Cutter Gauthier L	+0.4%	Plays
Ian Moore D	+0.4%	OUT · IR
Tyson Hinds D	+0.2%	Plays
NJD
Jack Hughes C	+1.2%	Plays
Luke Hughes D	+1.1%	Plays
Dougie Hamilton D	+0.9%	Plays
Jesper Bratt L	+0.9%	Plays
Arseny Gritsyuk R	+0.9%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (6.37 → 6.47)

12:02 AM 6.37 first run
1:01 AM 6.29 -0.08NJD goalie: Nico Daws → Jake Allen -0.08; ANA goalie Lukas Dostal: Projected → Likely
5:08 AM 6.29 Line 6.5 o-107 → 6.5 o-110
11:18 AM 6.36 +0.07NJD goalie: Jake Allen → Nico Daws +0.08; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 6.5 o-110 → 6.5 o-115
12:18 PM 6.36 NJD lineup: Mike Morreale Oct 22 11:34 AM
1:17 PM 6.47 +0.11ANA goalie: Lukas Dostal → Ville Husso +0.11; Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-122
2:17 PM 6.47 Line 6.5 o-122 → 6.5 o-125
3:16 PM 6.47 ANA lineup: Patrick Present Oct 22 2:27 PM; Line 6.5 o-125 → 6.5 o-128
3:17 PM 6.47 no change
4:36 PM 6.47 no change
5:18 PM 6.47 Line 6.5 o-128 → 6.5 o-129
6:18 PM 6.47 no change
6:30 PM 6.47 no change
6:45 PM 6.47 no change

AVOID: ANA projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (ANA 3.00). ANA just misses the cutoff (by 0.09), and the rule needs both teams over it, so the 6.47 total isn't enough on its own. At 5-on-5, ANA is bad (1.92) and NJD is great (2.31); on the power play, ANA is bad (0.53) and NJD is great (0.66). ANA faces Nico Daws, a Trash goalie, grade 17 (+0.9%); NJD faces Ville Husso, a Trash goalie, grade 9 (+2.2%). Other factors: ANA's team speed adds 2.3%; NJD's team speed costs 2.3%. ANA 3.00: 0.10 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: team speed +0.07 (it skates faster than NJD, +2.3%); Nico Daws in goal +0.02 (a Trash goalie, grade 17, +0.9%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.12 (its attack ranks #15 of 32, NJD's defense #8); power play -0.05 (its power play ranks #16, NJD's penalty kill and penalty habits #4); injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.6%). NJD 3.46: 0.36 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.27 (its attack ranks #13 of 32, ANA's defense #30); power play +0.08 (its power play ranks #15, ANA's penalty kill and penalty habits #25); Ville Husso in goal +0.08 (a Trash goalie, grade 9, +2.2%); injuries +0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.3%). Holding it back: team speed -0.08 (it skates slower than ANA, -2.3%). The model projects 6.47 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 49% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (ANA 1, NJD 4), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

7:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

SJS#22 OFF / #30 DEF63.02●

Y. Askarov ✓ Trash 4

OTT#17 OFF / #3 DEF23.37●

S. Ersson ✓ Trash 1

8 goals · proj 6.39 · P(7+) 49%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
SJS	1.63	0.61	+7.1%	0.47	+6.5%	-2.0%	-0.4%
OTT	2.15	0.84	+3.5%	0.49	-8.0%	+2.1%	-0.3%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
SJS	1.83#28 of 32	1.81#1 of 32	1.63goals
OTT	2.03#16 of 32	2.16#25 of 32	2.15goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
SJS	0.61#13 of 32	0.56#11 of 32	0.61goals
OTT	0.66#6 of 32	0.70#32 of 32	0.84goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
SJS
Macklin Celebrini C	-5.1%	Plays
Will Smith C	-2.4%	Plays
Tyler Toffoli C	-2.0%	Plays
Alexander Wennberg C	-0.9%	OUT
Kiefer Sherwood L	-0.8%	Plays
OTT
Tim Stützle C	-4.2%	Plays
Drake Batherson R	-3.4%	Plays
Dylan Cozens C	-2.3%	Plays
Shane Pinto C	-1.5%	Plays
Claude Giroux R	-1.3%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
SJS
Macklin Celebrini C	+0.9%	Plays
Will Smith C	+0.7%	Plays
Tyler Toffoli C	+0.7%	Plays
Dmitry Orlov D	+0.6%	Plays
Mason Marchment L	+0.4%	Plays
OTT
Jordan Spence D	+2.2%	Plays
Drake Batherson R	+1.6%	Plays
Dylan Cozens C	+1.4%	Plays
Tim Stützle C	+1.3%	Plays
Tyler Kleven D	+1.1%	Plays

Also out: OTT: Thomas Chabot -0.3% attack, +0.8% defense

How the projection moved on game day (6.05 → 6.39)

12:02 AM 6.05 first run
1:01 AM 6.05 SJS goalie Yaroslav Askarov: Projected → Likely
5:08 AM 6.38 +0.33OTT goalie: Linus Ullmark → Samuel Ersson +0.33; Line 6.5 o-105 → 6.5 o-100
11:18 AM 6.39 +0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.01; OTT lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-21)
12:18 PM 6.39 SJS goalie Yaroslav Askarov: Likely → Confirmed; SJS lineup: Max Miller Oct 22 11:43 AM; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o-101
1:17 PM 6.39 OTT goalie Samuel Ersson: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-101 → 6.5 o-100
2:17 PM 6.39 no change
3:16 PM 6.39 no change
3:17 PM 6.39 no change
4:36 PM 6.39 no change
5:18 PM 6.39 no change
6:18 PM 6.39 no change
6:30 PM 6.39 no change
6:45 PM 6.39 no change

AVOID: SJS projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (SJS 3.02). SJS just misses the cutoff (by 0.08), and the rule needs both teams over it, so the 6.39 total isn't enough on its own. At 5-on-5, SJS is trash (1.63) and OTT is good (2.15); on the power play, SJS is good (0.61) and OTT is great (0.84). SJS faces Samuel Ersson, a Trash goalie, grade 1 (+7.1%); OTT faces Yaroslav Askarov, a Trash goalie, grade 4 (+3.5%). Other factors: SJS's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); SJS's team speed costs 2.0%; OTT played yesterday (-8%); OTT's team speed adds 2.1%. SJS 3.02: 0.09 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: Samuel Ersson in goal +0.19 (a Trash goalie, grade 1, +7.1%); back-to-back +0.19 (OTT played yesterday, +6.5%); power play +0.04 (its power play ranks #13, OTT's penalty kill and penalty habits #11). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.42 (its attack ranks #28 of 32, OTT's defense #1); team speed -0.06 (it skates slower than OTT, -2.0%); injuries -0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.4%). OTT 3.37: 0.26 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: power play +0.26 (its power play ranks #6, SJS's penalty kill and penalty habits #32); Yaroslav Askarov in goal +0.12 (a Trash goalie, grade 4, +3.5%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.11 (its attack ranks #16 of 32, SJS's defense #25); team speed +0.07 (it skates faster than SJS, +2.1%). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.29 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); injuries -0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.3%). The model projects 6.39 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 49% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 5.5 to 6.5, toward the over. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 8 goals (SJS 6, OTT 2), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

7:00 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

NSH#14 OFF / #19 DEF02.97●

J. Annunen ✓ OK 40

BOS#20 OFF / #16 DEF63.18●

M. DiPietro ✓ OK 30

6 goals · proj 6.15 · P(7+) 47%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
NSH	1.87	0.63	-0.6%	0.49	–	-0.3%	+0.2%
BOS	2.19	0.57	-1.4%	0.49	–	-0.5%	–

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NSH	1.83#27 of 32	2.08#21 of 32	1.87goals
BOS	2.16#9 of 32	2.06#20 of 32	2.19goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NSH	0.62#12 of 32	0.57#15 of 32	0.63goals
BOS	0.56#18 of 32	0.56#12 of 32	0.57goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
NSH
Filip Forsberg L	-4.4%	Plays
Steven Stamkos C	-4.0%	Plays
Ryan O'Reilly C	-3.2%	Plays
Roman Josi D	-1.6%	Plays
Jonathan Marchessault R	-1.2%	Plays
BOS
David Pastrnak R	-4.4%	Plays
Morgan Geekie C	-3.3%	Plays
Pavel Zacha C	-2.3%	Plays
Elias Lindholm C	-1.6%	Plays
Charlie McAvoy D	-1.0%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
NSH
Filip Forsberg L	+0.7%	Plays
Steven Stamkos C	+0.6%	Plays
Adam Wilsby D	+0.5%	Plays
Roman Josi D	+0.5%	Plays
Ross Colton C	+0.3%	Plays
BOS
David Pastrnak R	+0.9%	Plays
Morgan Geekie C	+0.7%	Plays
Mason Lohrei D	+0.7%	Plays
Casey Mittelstadt C	+0.5%	Plays
JJ Peterka R	+0.3%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (5.99 → 6.15)

12:02 AM 5.99 first run
1:01 AM 5.99 NSH goalie Juuse Saros: Projected → Likely; BOS goalie Jeremy Swayman: Projected → Likely
5:08 AM 5.99 Line 5.5 o-132 → 5.5 o-131
11:18 AM 6.16 +0.18BOS goalie: Jeremy Swayman → Michael DiPietro +0.19; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; BOS lineup: Jack Studley Oct 22 10:37 AM; Line 5.5 o-131 → 6.5 o-106
12:18 PM 6.16 no change
1:17 PM 6.16 Line 6.5 o-106 → 6.5 o-105
2:17 PM 6.16 Line 6.5 o-105 → 6.5 o+107
3:16 PM 6.16 no change
3:17 PM 6.16 no change
4:36 PM 6.16 no change
5:18 PM 6.16 no change
6:18 PM 6.16 Line 6.5 o+107 → 6.5 o+106
6:30 PM 6.16 no change
6:45 PM 6.15 -0.01NSH goalie: Juuse Saros → Justus Annunen -0.01; Mavrik Bourque (NSH) off day-to-day; NSH lineup: Nick Kieser Oct 22 6:40 PM; Line 6.5 o+106 → 6.5 o+100

AVOID: NSH projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (NSH 2.97). The 6.15 total looks high, but most of it comes from BOS; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, NSH is bad (1.87) and BOS is good (2.19); on the power play, NSH is good (0.63) and BOS is mid (0.57). NSH faces Michael DiPietro, an OK goalie, grade 30 (-0.6%); BOS faces Justus Annunen, an OK goalie, grade 40 (-1.4%). NSH 2.97: 0.14 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: power play +0.05 (its power play ranks #12, BOS's penalty kill and penalty habits #15). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.17 (its attack ranks #27 of 32, BOS's defense #21); Michael DiPietro in goal -0.02 (an OK goalie, grade 30, -0.6%). BOS 3.18: 0.08 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.15 (its attack ranks #9 of 32, NSH's defense #20). Holding it back: Justus Annunen in goal -0.05 (an OK goalie, grade 40, -1.4%); team speed -0.02 (it skates slower than NSH, -0.5%). The model projects 6.15 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 47% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 5.5 to 6.5, toward the over. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 6 goals (NSH 0, BOS 6), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

7:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

NYR#18 OFF / #9 DEF43.29●

D. Garand ✓ Good 61

TOR#19 OFF / #31 DEF52.83●

S. Bobrovsky ✓ Mid 45

9 goals · proj 6.12 · P(7+) 45%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
NYR	2.12	0.75	-1.8%	0.49	–	-0.4%	+0.4%
TOR	1.91	0.61	-3.1%	0.49	–	+0.1%	-2.9%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NYR	1.93#23 of 32	2.23#29 of 32	2.12goals
TOR	1.95#22 of 32	1.99#13 of 32	1.91goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NYR	0.62#10 of 32	0.67#28 of 32	0.75goals
TOR	0.62#10 of 32	0.54#9 of 32	0.61goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
NYR
Mika Zibanejad C	-3.1%	Plays
Alexis Lafrenière L	-2.5%	Plays
J.T. Miller C	-2.3%	Plays
Adam Fox D	-1.9%	Plays
Pavel Dorofeyev R	-1.5%	Plays
TOR
William Nylander R	-4.7%	Plays
Auston Matthews C	-4.2%	Plays
John Tavares C	-3.0%	OUT · IR
Kirill Marchenko R	-1.6%	Plays
Darren Raddysh D	-1.3%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
NYR
Alexis Lafrenière L	+0.9%	Plays
Pavel Dorofeyev R	+0.8%	Plays
Adam Fox D	+0.7%	Plays
Gabe Perreault R	+0.5%	Plays
Oliver Bjorkstrand R	+0.4%	Plays
TOR
Darren Raddysh D	+0.6%	Plays
Jack Roslovic C	+0.4%	Plays
Kirill Marchenko R	+0.4%	Plays
Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	+0.3%	Plays
Nick Paul L	+0.3%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (6.13 → 6.12)

12:02 AM 6.13 first run
1:01 AM 6.05 -0.08TOR goalie: Sergei Bobrovsky → Anthony Stolarz -0.08; NYR goalie Dylan Garand: Projected → Likely
5:08 AM 6.13 +0.08TOR goalie: Anthony Stolarz → Sergei Bobrovsky +0.08
11:18 AM 6.12 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; TOR goalie Sergei Bobrovsky: Likely → Confirmed; TOR lineup: Arun Srinivasan Oct 22 10:42 AM
12:18 PM 6.12 NYR goalie Dylan Garand: Likely → Confirmed; Marshall Rifai (TOR) day-to-day; TOR lineup: Arun Srinivasan Oct 22 11:33 AM; Line 6.5 o-105 → 6.5 o-102
1:17 PM 6.12 Jake McCabe (TOR) off day-to-day
2:17 PM 6.12 no change
3:16 PM 6.12 Line 6.5 o-102 → 6.5 o-105
3:17 PM 6.12 no change
4:36 PM 6.12 no change
5:18 PM 6.12 no change
6:18 PM 6.12 no change
6:30 PM 6.12 no change
6:45 PM 6.12 Marshall Rifai (TOR) off day-to-day

AVOID: TOR projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (TOR 2.83). The 6.12 total looks high, but most of it comes from NYR; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, NYR is good (2.12) and TOR is bad (1.91); on the power play, NYR is great (0.75) and TOR is good (0.61). NYR faces Sergei Bobrovsky, a Mid goalie, grade 45 (-1.8%); TOR faces Dylan Garand, a Good goalie, grade 61 (-3.1%). Other factors: injuries cost TOR 2.9%. NYR 3.29: 0.19 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: power play +0.17 (its power play ranks #10, TOR's penalty kill and penalty habits #28); 5-on-5 matchup +0.08 (its attack ranks #23 of 32, TOR's defense #29); injuries +0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.4%). Holding it back: Sergei Bobrovsky in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 45, -1.8%); team speed -0.01 (it skates slower than TOR, -0.4%). TOR 2.83: 0.28 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: power play +0.03 (its power play ranks #10, NYR's penalty kill and penalty habits #9). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.13 (its attack ranks #22 of 32, NYR's defense #13); Dylan Garand in goal -0.09 (a Good goalie, grade 61, -3.1%); injuries -0.08 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.9%). The model projects 6.12 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 9 goals (NYR 4, TOR 5), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

9:00 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

MIN#3 OFF / #8 DEF13.35●

J. Wallstedt ✓ Good 61

CGY#29 OFF / #29 DEF22.53●

D. Cooley ✓ Mid 56

3 goals · proj 5.88 · P(7+) 41%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
MIN	2.23	0.64	-2.6%	0.48	–	+2.4%	+0.2%
CGY	1.79	0.43	-3.0%	0.49	–	-3.0%	-0.5%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
MIN	2.06#14 of 32	2.20#28 of 32	2.23goals
CGY	1.86#26 of 32	1.95#12 of 32	1.79goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
MIN	0.62#9 of 32	0.57#15 of 32	0.64goals
CGY	0.42#32 of 32	0.57#18 of 32	0.43goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
MIN
Kirill Kaprizov L	-6.0%	Plays
Matt Boldy L	-4.8%	Plays
Joel Eriksson Ek C	-2.8%	Plays
Quinn Hughes D	-2.7%	Plays
Ryan Hartman R	-0.8%	Plays
CGY
Matt Coronato R	-1.5%	Plays
Morgan Frost C	-1.4%	Plays
Jonathan Huberdeau L	-0.6%	OUT · IR
Ryan Strome C	-0.4%	Plays
Yegor Sharangovich C	-0.4%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
MIN
Quinn Hughes D	+2.0%	Plays
Kirill Kaprizov L	+1.6%	Plays
Matt Boldy L	+1.1%	Plays
Bobby Brink R	+1.1%	Plays
Jared Spurgeon D	+0.9%	Plays
CGY
Morgan Frost C	+0.8%	Plays
Joel Hanley D	+0.4%	OUT · scratch
Matt Coronato R	+0.4%	Plays
Adam Klapka R	+0.4%	Plays
Ryan Strome C	+0.3%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (5.98 → 5.88)

12:02 AM 5.98 first run
1:01 AM 6.12 +0.14CGY goalie: Devin Cooley → Dustin Wolf +0.14; MIN goalie Jesper Wallstedt: Projected → Likely; Line 5.5 o-130 → 5.5 o-133
5:08 AM 6.12 no change
11:18 AM 6.11 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 5.5 o-133 → 6 o-125
12:18 PM 6.11 no change
1:17 PM 6.11 CGY goalie Dustin Wolf: Likely → Conflict; Line 6 o-125 → 6 o-128
2:17 PM 5.94 -0.16CGY goalie: Dustin Wolf → Devin Cooley -0.14; Injuries / lineup: Mikael Backlund (CGY) out -0.02; MIN goalie Jesper Wallstedt: Likely → Confirmed; CGY lineup: Projected Oct 22 1:22 PM; Line 6 o-128 → 6 o-124
3:16 PM 5.88 -0.06Injuries / lineup: Jared Spurgeon (MIN) back in, Olli Maatta (MIN) back in -0.06; Line 6 o-124 → 6 o-110
3:17 PM 5.88 no change
4:36 PM 5.88 no change
5:18 PM 5.88 no change
6:18 PM 5.88 Line 6 o-110 → 6.5 o+101
6:30 PM 5.88 Line 6.5 o+101 → 6 o-110
6:45 PM 5.88 no change
7:18 PM 5.88 Line 6 o-110 → 6.5 o+101
7:45 PM 5.88 no change
8:18 PM 5.88 Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o-100
8:45 PM 5.88 Injuries / lineup: Maxim Shabanov (MIN) out -0.00; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o-104

AVOID: CGY projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (CGY 2.53). At 5-on-5, MIN is great (2.23) and CGY is trash (1.79); on the power play, MIN is good (0.64) and CGY is trash (0.43). MIN faces Devin Cooley, a Mid goalie, grade 56 (-2.6%); CGY faces Jesper Wallstedt, a Good goalie, grade 61 (-3.0%). Other factors: MIN's team speed adds 2.4%; CGY's team speed costs 3.0%. MIN 3.35: 0.24 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.19 (its attack ranks #14 of 32, CGY's defense #28); team speed +0.08 (it skates faster than CGY, +2.4%); power play +0.06 (its power play ranks #9, CGY's penalty kill and penalty habits #15). Holding it back: Devin Cooley in goal -0.09 (a Mid goalie, grade 56, -2.6%). CGY 2.53: 0.57 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.25 (its attack ranks #26 of 32, MIN's defense #12); power play -0.15 (its power play ranks #32, MIN's penalty kill and penalty habits #18); Jesper Wallstedt in goal -0.08 (a Good goalie, grade 61, -3.0%); team speed -0.08 (it skates slower than MIN, -3.0%); injuries -0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.5%). The model projects 5.88 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 41% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 3 goals (MIN 1, CGY 2), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

8:00 PM ETAVOID

U 5.5 ✓ under

WPG#25 OFF / #20 DEF22.72●

S. Skinner ✓ Mid 51

DAL#24 OFF / #2 DEF33.11●

J. Oettinger ✓ Good 73

5 goals · proj 5.83 · P(7+) 42%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
WPG	1.80	0.57	-4.3%	0.49	–	–	-0.3%
DAL	2.00	0.65	-2.3%	0.49	–	-0.7%	+2.2%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
WPG	1.95#21 of 32	1.87#2 of 32	1.80goals
DAL	1.92#24 of 32	2.12#22 of 32	2.00goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
WPG	0.55#20 of 32	0.57#18 of 32	0.57goals
DAL	0.64#8 of 32	0.56#13 of 32	0.65goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
WPG
Kyle Connor L	-4.9%	Plays
Mark Scheifele C	-4.5%	Plays
Gabriel Vilardi C	-2.8%	Plays
Cole Perfetti C	-1.6%	Plays
Josh Morrissey D	-1.2%	OUT · IR
DAL
Jason Robertson L	-5.4%	Plays
Wyatt Johnston C	-4.1%	Plays
Mikko Rantanen R	-4.0%	Plays
Roope Hintz C	-2.6%	Plays
Miro Heiskanen D	-1.6%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
WPG
Cole Perfetti C	+1.3%	Plays
Josh Morrissey D	+0.9%	OUT · IR
Nino Niederreiter R	+0.8%	Plays
Alex Iafallo L	+0.7%	Plays
Gabriel Vilardi C	+0.6%	Plays
DAL
Jason Robertson L	+1.6%	Plays
Miro Heiskanen D	+1.4%	Plays
Mikko Rantanen R	+1.1%	Plays
Thomas Harley D	+1.1%	Plays
Nils Lundkvist D	+1.0%	Plays

Also out: DAL: Matt Duchene -1.3% attack, +0.3% defense

How the projection moved on game day (5.85 → 5.83)

12:02 AM 5.85 first run
1:01 AM 5.85 WPG goalie Stuart Skinner: Projected → Likely; DAL goalie Jake Oettinger: Projected → Likely
5:08 AM 5.85 no change
11:18 AM 5.83 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 5.5 o-120 → 5.5 o-110
12:18 PM 5.83 DAL lineup: Robert Tiffin Oct 22 11:36 AM; Line 5.5 o-110 → 5.5 o-109
1:17 PM 5.83 WPG goalie Stuart Skinner: Likely → Confirmed; DAL goalie Jake Oettinger: Likely → Confirmed; Line 5.5 o-109 → 5.5 o-106
2:17 PM 5.83 no change
3:16 PM 5.83 Line 5.5 o-106 → 5.5 o-110
3:17 PM 5.83 no change
4:36 PM 5.83 Line 5.5 o-110 → 5.5 o-109
5:18 PM 5.83 no change
6:18 PM 5.83 Line 5.5 o-109 → 5.5 o-110
6:30 PM 5.83 no change
6:45 PM 5.83 no change
7:18 PM 5.83 no change
7:45 PM 5.83 no change

AVOID: WPG projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (WPG 2.72); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, WPG is trash (1.80) and DAL is mid (2.00); on the power play, WPG is mid (0.57) and DAL is good (0.65). WPG faces Jake Oettinger, a Good goalie, grade 73 (-4.3%); DAL faces Stuart Skinner, a Mid goalie, grade 51 (-2.3%). Other factors: injuries help DAL 2.2%. WPG 2.72: 0.38 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.24 (its attack ranks #21 of 32, DAL's defense #2); Jake Oettinger in goal -0.12 (a Good goalie, grade 73, -4.3%); power play -0.01 (its power play ranks #20, DAL's penalty kill and penalty habits #18). DAL 3.11: 0.01 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: power play +0.07 (its power play ranks #8, WPG's penalty kill and penalty habits #13); injuries +0.07 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.2%). Holding it back: Stuart Skinner in goal -0.07 (a Mid goalie, grade 51, -2.3%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.04 (its attack ranks #24 of 32, WPG's defense #22); team speed -0.02 (it skates slower than WPG, -0.7%). The model projects 5.83 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 42% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (WPG 2, DAL 3), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.

8:00 PM ETAVOID ⚠ lineup

O 6 ✗ went over

VGK#7 OFF / #5 DEF23.14●

A. Hill ✓ OK 24

STL#27 OFF / #14 DEF62.69●

J. Hofer ✓ Good 64

8 goals · proj 5.83 · P(7+) 42%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
VGK	2.18	0.66	-3.3%	0.49	–	+0.4%	-2.9%
STL	1.82	0.33	–	0.49	–	-0.6%	+2.8%

Why this call

⚠ Lineup change since 12:02 AM: Mitch Marner now OUT (was Plays, seen 7:45 PM) · VGK −3.8% · projection 5.95 → 5.83

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
VGK	2.19#8 of 32	2.02#16 of 32	2.18goals
STL	1.97#19 of 32	1.88#4 of 32	1.82goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
VGK	0.69#3 of 32	0.53#5 of 32	0.66goals
STL	0.47#29 of 32	0.39#1 of 32	0.33goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
VGK
Jack Eichel C	-4.7%	Plays
Mark Stone R	-4.2%	Plays
⚠ Mitch Marner R	-3.8%	OUTwas Plays
Tomas Hertl C	-3.6%	Plays
Ivan Barbashev L	-1.9%	Plays
STL
Robert Thomas C	-2.8%	Plays
Jimmy Snuggerud R	-2.0%	Plays
Dylan Holloway L	-2.0%	Plays
Pavel Buchnevich L	-1.3%	Plays
Jake Neighbours L	-1.1%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
VGK
Tomas Hertl C	+1.6%	Plays
Shea Theodore D	+1.3%	Plays
Mark Stone R	+1.2%	Plays
Ivan Barbashev L	+1.1%	Plays
Noah Hanifin D	+1.0%	Plays
STL
Dylan Holloway L	+0.9%	Plays
Dalibor Dvorsky R	+0.7%	Plays
Jake Neighbours L	+0.7%	Plays
Cam Fowler D	+0.7%	Plays
Jimmy Snuggerud R	+0.6%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (5.95 → 5.83)

12:02 AM 5.95 first run
1:01 AM 5.99 +0.04VGK goalie: Adin Hill → Carter Hart +0.04; STL goalie Joel Hofer: Projected → Likely; Line 6 o-115 → 6.5 o-101
5:08 AM 5.99 no change
11:18 AM 5.98 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 6.5 o-101 → 6.5 o-100
12:18 PM 5.98 STL goalie Joel Hofer: Likely → Confirmed; STL lineup: Matthew DeFranks Oct 22 11:43 AM
1:17 PM 5.94 -0.04VGK goalie: Carter Hart → Adin Hill -0.04; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o+110
2:17 PM 5.94 Line 6.5 o+110 → 6.5 o-105
3:16 PM 5.94 Line 6.5 o-105 → 6.5 o-104
3:17 PM 5.94 no change
4:36 PM 5.94 no change
5:18 PM 5.94 no change
6:18 PM 5.94 no change
6:30 PM 5.94 no change
6:45 PM 5.94 no change
7:18 PM 5.94 no change
7:45 PM 5.83 -0.10Injuries / lineup: Mitch Marner (VGK) out -0.10; Line 6.5 o-104 → 6 o-125

AVOID: STL projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (STL 2.69). At 5-on-5, VGK is good (2.18) and STL is trash (1.82); on the power play, VGK is great (0.66) and STL is trash (0.33). VGK faces Joel Hofer, a Good goalie, grade 64 (-3.3%); STL faces Adin Hill, an OK goalie, grade 24 (+0.0%). Other factors: injuries cost VGK 2.9%; injuries help STL 2.8%. VGK 3.14: 0.03 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.14 (its attack ranks #8 of 32, STL's defense #16); power play +0.08 (its power play ranks #3, STL's penalty kill and penalty habits #5); team speed +0.01 (it skates faster than STL, +0.4%). Holding it back: Joel Hofer in goal -0.11 (a Good goalie, grade 64, -3.3%); injuries -0.09 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.9%). STL 2.69: 0.41 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: injuries +0.07 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.8%). Holding it back: power play -0.25 (its power play ranks #29, VGK's penalty kill and penalty habits #1); 5-on-5 matchup -0.22 (its attack ranks #19 of 32, VGK's defense #4); team speed -0.02 (it skates slower than VGK, -0.6%). The model projects 5.83 total goals against a 6 line, with a 42% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 5.5 to 6, toward the over. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 8 goals (VGK 2, STL 6), so it went over 6 and the call was wrong.

7:30 PM ETAVOID ⚠ lineup

U 5.5 ✓ under

LAK#26 OFF / #15 DEF32.71●

D. Kuemper ✓ Mid 45

NYI#23 OFF / #11 DEF22.93●

S. Varlamov ✓ Mid 55

5 goals · proj 5.64 · P(7+) 41%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
LAK	1.83	0.58	-2.6%	0.49	–	-2.5%	-1.5%
NYI	1.85	0.56	-1.8%	0.48	–	+2.8%	–

Why this call

⚠ Lineup change since 12:02 AM: Quinton Byfield now OUT (was Day-to-day, seen 2:17 PM) · LAK −1.4% · projection 5.52 → 5.64

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
LAK	1.82#29 of 32	2.05#18 of 32	1.83goals
NYI	1.99#18 of 32	1.89#5 of 32	1.85goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
LAK	0.48#28 of 32	0.66#27 of 32	0.58goals
NYI	0.53#22 of 32	0.59#20 of 32	0.56goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
LAK
Artemi Panarin L	-4.0%	Plays
Adrian Kempe R	-3.5%	Plays
⚠ Quinton Byfield R	-1.4%	OUTwas Day-to-day
Kevin Fiala L	-1.2%	OUT · IR
Alex Laferriere R	-0.9%	Plays
NYI
Bo Horvat C	-3.0%	Plays
Matthew Schaefer D	-2.0%	Plays
Mathew Barzal C	-1.7%	OUT · IR
Brayden Schenn C	-1.0%	Plays
Simon Holmstrom R	-0.9%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
LAK
Brandt Clarke D	+1.8%	Plays
Adrian Kempe R	+1.1%	Plays
Artemi Panarin L	+1.1%	Plays
Alex Laferriere R	+0.9%	Plays
Drew Doughty D	+0.9%	Plays
NYI
Matthew Schaefer D	+1.1%	Plays
Mathew Barzal C	+0.7%	OUT · IR
Emil Heineman L	+0.7%	Plays
Ondrej Palat L	+0.6%	Plays
Brayden Schenn C	+0.5%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (5.52 → 5.64)

12:02 AM 5.52 first run
1:01 AM 5.51 LAK goalie: Anton Forsberg → Darcy Kuemper -0.00; NYI goalie Ilya Sorokin: Projected → Likely
5:08 AM 5.51 no change
11:18 AM 5.66 +0.15NYI goalie: Ilya Sorokin → Semyon Varlamov +0.16; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; NYI lineup: Stefen Rosner Oct 22 10:38 AM; Line 5.5 o-105 → 5.5 o-111
12:18 PM 5.66 LAK goalie Darcy Kuemper: Likely → Confirmed; Line 5.5 o-111 → 5.5 o-115
1:17 PM 5.66 no change
2:17 PM 5.64 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Quinton Byfield (LAK) out -0.01; LAK lineup: Zach Dooley Oct 22 2:16 PM
3:16 PM 5.64 no change
3:17 PM 5.64 no change
4:36 PM 5.64 no change
5:18 PM 5.64 no change
6:18 PM 5.64 no change
6:30 PM 5.64 no change
6:45 PM 5.64 no change
7:18 PM 5.64 Line 5.5 o-115 → 5.5 o-112

AVOID: LAK and NYI project under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (LAK 2.71, NYI 2.93); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, LAK is bad (1.83) and NYI is bad (1.85); on the power play, LAK is mid (0.58) and NYI is mid (0.56). LAK faces Semyon Varlamov, a Mid goalie, grade 55 (-2.6%); NYI faces Darcy Kuemper, a Mid goalie, grade 45 (-1.8%). Other factors: LAK's team speed costs 2.5%; injuries cost LAK 1.5%; NYI's team speed adds 2.8%. LAK 2.71: 0.39 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.21 (its attack ranks #29 of 32, NYI's defense #18); Semyon Varlamov in goal -0.07 (a Mid goalie, grade 55, -2.6%); team speed -0.07 (it skates slower than NYI, -2.5%); injuries -0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.5%). NYI 2.93: 0.18 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: team speed +0.08 (it skates faster than LAK, +2.8%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.19 (its attack ranks #18 of 32, LAK's defense #5); Darcy Kuemper in goal -0.05 (a Mid goalie, grade 45, -1.8%); power play -0.01 (its power play ranks #22, LAK's penalty kill and penalty habits #20). The model projects 5.64 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 41% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (LAK 3, NYI 2), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.

Two rows per game (away, then home). ● = team projected high-scoring. Proj = (5v5 + PP + Oth) × goalie (Gl) × back-to-back (B2B) × team speed (Spd) × injuries (Inj). Hover or tap any underlined label for an explanation.