Sunday, October 4, 2026

5 games · 1 flag · 2 of 5 went over the line · avg 5.6 goals (projected 5.9) · flags 0-1-0 (-1.00u at close) · calls: SLAM – · 1U – · PASS 1 of 1 stayed under · AVOID 2 of 4 stayed under

Breakdown (for scoring):greatgoodmidbadtrash
TeamResultGoaliesProjection breakdown
TeamGProjTotal goalsProj totalP(7+)LinePickGoalie5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
FLA#17 OFF / #16 DEF23.10●5U 6.56.2649%6.5 → 6.58:00 PM ET
PASS
✓ under
paper L -1.00u		J. Markstrom ✓ OK 252.030.72-0.7%0.40–-1.6%+0.7%
ANA#7 OFF / #27 DEF33.16●L. Dostal ✓ OK 312.120.61-0.1%0.40–+1.7%-0.6%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
FLA1.97#19 of 322.11#24 of 322.03goals0.65#6 of 320.61#26 of 320.72goals
ANA2.23#5 of 321.95#8 of 322.12goals0.54#17 of 320.62#27 of 320.61goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?PlayerIf outPlayed?
FLASam Reinhart C-3.4%PlayedUvis Balinskis D+0.8%Played
Sam Bennett C-3.1%PlayedNiko Mikkola D+0.8%Played
Carter Verhaeghe C-2.8%PlayedCarter Verhaeghe C+0.8%Played
Matthew Tkachuk L-2.3%PlayedSam Bennett C+0.7%Played
Brad Marchand L-2.1%PlayedSam Reinhart C+0.6%Played
ANACutter Gauthier L-3.1%PlayedLeo Carlsson C+0.6%Played
Beckett Sennecke R-3.0%PlayedIan Moore D+0.6%Didn't play
Leo Carlsson C-3.0%PlayedBeckett Sennecke R+0.6%Played
Troy Terry R-2.0%Didn't playCutter Gauthier L+0.5%Played
Mikael Granlund C-1.9%PlayedJackson LaCombe D+0.4%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.32 → 6.26)
  • 1:55 AM 6.32 first run
  • 3:01 AM 6.22 -0.10ANA goalie: Ville Husso → Lukas Dostal -0.10
  • 11:18 AM 6.22 Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-115
  • 12:17 PM 6.22 Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-117
  • 12:45 PM 6.22 no change
  • 1:17 PM 6.22 no change
  • 2:18 PM 6.22 no change
  • 2:40 PM 6.22 no change
  • 3:17 PM 6.22 no change
  • 4:17 PM 6.22 Line 6.5 o-117 → 6.5 o-118
  • 5:17 PM 6.22 Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-117
  • 5:45 PM 6.22 FLA goalie Jacob Markstrom: Likely → Confirmed; FLA lineup: DFO Projections Oct 4 5:44 PM; Line 6.5 o-117 → 6.5 o-118
  • 6:17 PM 6.28 +0.06Injuries / lineup: Brad Marchand (FLA) back in +0.05
  • 7:17 PM 6.28 ANA lineup: Derek Lee Oct 4 7:14 PM; Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-119
  • 7:45 PM 6.26 -0.02Injuries / lineup: Aaron Ekblad (FLA) out, Uvis Balinskis (FLA) back in -0.02; FLA lineup: Steve Goldstein Oct 4 7:37 PM; ANA goalie Lukas Dostal: Likely → Conflict; ANA lineup: Patrick Present Oct 4 7:41 PM; Line 6.5 o-119 → 6.5 o-120

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

PASS: both teams project as high-scoring (FLA 3.10, ANA 3.16; cutoff 2.98) and the line is 6.5, but neither is great at 5-on-5 (FLA mid, ANA good) and they aren't both good, so there's no team to carry the over. At 5-on-5, FLA is mid (2.03) and ANA is good (2.12); on the power play, FLA is great (0.72) and ANA is good (0.61). FLA faces Lukas Dostal, an OK goalie, grade 31 (-0.7%); ANA faces Jacob Markstrom, an OK goalie, grade 25 (-0.1%). FLA 3.10: 0.09 goals above what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: power play +0.16 (its power play ranks #6, ANA's penalty kill and penalty habits #26); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.7%). Holding it back: team speed -0.05 (it skates slower than ANA, -1.6%); Lukas Dostal in goal -0.02 (an OK goalie, grade 31, -0.7%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.02 (its attack ranks #19 of 32, ANA's defense #24). ANA 3.16: 0.15 goals above what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.07 (its attack ranks #5 of 32, FLA's defense #8); team speed +0.05 (it skates faster than FLA, +1.7%); power play +0.04 (its power play ranks #17, FLA's penalty kill and penalty habits #27). Holding it back: injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.6%). The model projects 6.26 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 49% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Flagged games like this went over only 47% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (FLA 2, ANA 3), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.
VGK#6 OFF / #3 DEF33.79●5U 6.56.1748%6.5 → 6.59:00 PM ET
AVOID
✓ under		A. Hill ✓ OK 212.240.68+5.5%0.40+6.5%+0.8%+0.5%
VAN#22 OFF / #32 DEF22.38●K. Lankinen ✓ Trash 11.800.45+0.3%0.40-8.0%-1.1%-1.5%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
VGK2.10#12 of 322.19#28 of 322.24goals0.63#9 of 320.60#24 of 320.68goals
VAN1.98#17 of 321.86#1 of 321.80goals0.56#16 of 320.44#1 of 320.45goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?PlayerIf outPlayed?
VGKJack Eichel C-4.7%PlayedTomas Hertl C+1.6%Played
Mitch Marner R-4.0%PlayedShea Theodore D+1.3%Played
Mark Stone R-3.7%PlayedMark Stone R+1.2%Played
Tomas Hertl C-3.7%PlayedIvan Barbashev L+1.2%Played
Ivan Barbashev L-1.8%PlayedNoah Hanifin D+1.1%Played
VANJake DeBrusk L-1.8%Didn't playLinus Karlsson C+0.8%Played
Brock Boeser R-1.7%PlayedJake DeBrusk L+0.6%Didn't play
Elias Pettersson C-1.7%PlayedElias Pettersson C+0.5%Played
Marco Rossi C-1.2%PlayedMarco Rossi C+0.4%Played
Linus Karlsson C-1.0%PlayedZeev Buium D+0.4%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.24 → 6.17)
  • 1:55 AM 6.24 first run
  • 3:01 AM 6.27 +0.03VGK goalie: Adin Hill → Carter Hart +0.03; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o+102
  • 11:18 AM 6.20 -0.07Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.07; Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o+109
  • 12:17 PM 6.20 Line 6.5 o+109 → 6.5 o+110
  • 12:45 PM 6.20 no change
  • 1:17 PM 6.20 no change
  • 2:18 PM 6.20 Line 6.5 o+110 → 6.5 o-101
  • 2:40 PM 6.20 no change
  • 3:17 PM 6.20 no change
  • 4:17 PM 6.17 -0.03VGK goalie: Carter Hart → Adin Hill -0.03
  • 5:17 PM 6.17 no change
  • 5:45 PM 6.17 no change
  • 6:17 PM 6.17 no change
  • 6:22 PM 6.17 no change
  • 7:17 PM 6.17 Line 6.5 o-101 → 6.5 o+101
  • 7:45 PM 6.17 no change
  • 7:49 PM 6.17 Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o+105
  • 8:17 PM 6.17 no change
  • 8:45 PM 6.17 VGK goalie Adin Hill: Likely → Confirmed; VGK lineup: Sin Bin Vegas Oct 4 8:36 PM; VAN goalie Kevin Lankinen: Likely → Confirmed; VAN lineup: Brendan Batchelor Oct 4 8:37 PM; Line 6.5 o+105 → 6.5 o+102

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: VAN projects under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (VAN 2.38). The 6.17 total looks high, but most of it comes from VGK; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, VGK is great (2.24) and VAN is trash (1.80); on the power play, VGK is great (0.68) and VAN is trash (0.45). VGK faces Kevin Lankinen, a Trash goalie, grade 1 (+5.5%); VAN faces Adin Hill, an OK goalie, grade 21 (+0.3%). Other factors: VGK's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); VAN played yesterday (-8%); injuries cost VAN 1.5%. VGK 3.79: 0.78 goals above what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.23 (VAN played yesterday, +6.5%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.19 (its attack ranks #12 of 32, VAN's defense #28); Kevin Lankinen in goal +0.18 (a Trash goalie, grade 1, +5.5%); power play +0.12 (its power play ranks #9, VAN's penalty kill and penalty habits #24); team speed +0.03 (it skates faster than VAN, +0.8%); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.5%). VAN 2.38: 0.63 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.25 (its attack ranks #17 of 32, VGK's defense #1); back-to-back -0.21 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); power play -0.11 (its power play ranks #16, VGK's penalty kill and penalty habits #1); injuries -0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.5%); team speed -0.03 (it skates slower than VGK, -1.1%). The model projects 6.17 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 48% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (VGK 3, VAN 2), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.
WPG#19 OFF / #26 DEF32.85●5U 5.55.6543%5.5 → 5.51:00 PM ET
AVOID
✓ under		S. Skinner ✓ Mid 411.920.58-1.6%0.40–-1.7%+1.7%
DET#24 OFF / #11 DEF22.80●J. Gibson ✓ Mid 421.880.55-1.4%0.40–+1.3%-1.2%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
WPG1.95#20 of 322.02#15 of 321.92goals0.58#12 of 320.55#15 of 320.58goals
DET1.84#31 of 322.10#20 of 321.88goals0.58#12 of 320.53#10 of 320.55goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?PlayerIf outPlayed?
WPGKyle Connor L-5.0%PlayedCole Perfetti C+1.3%Played
Mark Scheifele C-4.5%PlayedJosh Morrissey D+1.1%Played
Gabriel Vilardi C-2.8%PlayedNino Niederreiter R+0.9%Played
Josh Morrissey D-1.5%PlayedAlex Iafallo L+0.6%Played
Cole Perfetti C-1.4%PlayedVladislav Namestnikov C+0.5%Played
DETAlex DeBrincat R-5.1%PlayedMoritz Seider D+1.3%Played
Lucas Raymond L-3.7%PlayedAlex DeBrincat R+1.2%Played
Dylan Larkin C-3.2%Didn't playLucas Raymond L+1.2%Played
Moritz Seider D-1.1%PlayedEmmitt Finnie C+0.7%Played
Andrew Copp C-0.3%PlayedAxel Sandin-Pellikka D+0.6%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (5.74 → 5.65)
  • 1:55 AM 5.74 first run
  • 3:01 AM 5.65 -0.09DET goalie: Daniil Tarasov → John Gibson -0.08
  • 11:18 AM 5.65 no change
  • 12:17 PM 5.65 Line 5.5 o-121 → 5.5 o-120
  • 12:45 PM 5.65 WPG goalie Stuart Skinner: Likely → Confirmed; WPG lineup: Ken Wiebe Oct 4 12:39 PM; DET goalie John Gibson: Likely → Confirmed; DET lineup: Ansar Khan Oct 4 12:40 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: WPG and DET project under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (WPG 2.85, DET 2.80); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, WPG is bad (1.92) and DET is bad (1.88); on the power play, WPG is mid (0.58) and DET is mid (0.55). WPG faces John Gibson, a Mid goalie, grade 42 (-1.6%); DET faces Stuart Skinner, a Mid goalie, grade 41 (-1.4%). Other factors: injuries help WPG 1.7%. WPG 2.85: 0.16 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: injuries +0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.7%); power play +0.02 (its power play ranks #12, DET's penalty kill and penalty habits #15). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.13 (its attack ranks #20 of 32, DET's defense #15); team speed -0.05 (it skates slower than DET, -1.7%); John Gibson in goal -0.04 (a Mid goalie, grade 42, -1.6%). DET 2.80: 0.21 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: team speed +0.04 (it skates faster than WPG, +1.3%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.17 (its attack ranks #31 of 32, WPG's defense #20); Stuart Skinner in goal -0.04 (a Mid goalie, grade 41, -1.4%); injuries -0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.2%). The model projects 5.65 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 43% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (WPG 3, DET 2), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.
UTA#9 OFF / #5 DEF22.76●6O 5.55.5742%5.5 → 5.56:00 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over		K. Vejmelka ✓ Mid 472.130.63-8.5%0.40-8.0%+3.6%–
NYR#26 OFF / #9 DEF42.81●I. Shesterkin ✓ Strong 931.780.58-2.0%0.40+6.5%-3.4%+0.8%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
UTA2.20#8 of 321.98#13 of 322.13goals0.67#3 of 320.52#7 of 320.63goals
NYR1.84#30 of 321.98#12 of 321.78goals0.57#15 of 320.56#17 of 320.58goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?PlayerIf outPlayed?
UTADylan Guenther R-4.0%PlayedClayton Keller R+1.6%Played
Clayton Keller R-3.8%PlayedNate Schmidt D+1.4%Played
Nick Schmaltz C-3.6%PlayedNick Schmaltz C+1.0%Played
Logan Cooley C-2.2%PlayedBarrett Hayton C+1.0%Played
Mikhail Sergachev D-1.4%PlayedMichael Carcone L+0.9%Played
NYRMika Zibanejad C-3.1%PlayedAlexis Lafrenière L+0.8%Played
Alexis Lafrenière L-2.4%PlayedAdam Fox D+0.6%Played
J.T. Miller C-2.1%PlayedGabe Perreault R+0.4%Played
Adam Fox D-1.7%PlayedVladislav Gavrikov D+0.4%Played
Will Cuylle L-0.8%PlayedTye Kartye L+0.4%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (5.55 → 5.57)
  • 1:55 AM 5.55 first run
  • 3:01 AM 5.55 Line 5.5 o-123 → 5.5 o-126
  • 11:18 AM 5.57 +0.02Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.02; UTA lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-03); NYR lineup: Peter Baugh Oct 4 10:20 AM; Line 5.5 o-126 → 5.5 o-119
  • 12:17 PM 5.57 Line 5.5 o-119 → 5.5 o-120
  • 12:45 PM 5.57 no change
  • 1:17 PM 5.57 no change
  • 2:18 PM 5.57 no change
  • 2:40 PM 5.57 no change
  • 3:17 PM 5.57 no change
  • 4:17 PM 5.57 no change
  • 5:17 PM 5.57 no change
  • 5:45 PM 5.57 UTA goalie Karel Vejmelka: Likely → Confirmed; UTA lineup: Utah Mammoth Oct 4 5:37 PM; NYR goalie Igor Shesterkin: Likely → Confirmed; NYR lineup: Vince Mervogliano Oct 4 5:36 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: UTA and NYR project under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (UTA 2.76, NYR 2.81); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, UTA is good (2.13) and NYR is trash (1.78); on the power play, UTA is good (0.63) and NYR is mid (0.58). UTA faces Igor Shesterkin, a Strong goalie, grade 93 (-8.5%); NYR faces Karel Vejmelka, a Mid goalie, grade 47 (-2.0%). Other factors: UTA played yesterday (-8%); UTA's team speed adds 3.6%; NYR's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); NYR's team speed costs 3.4%. UTA 2.76: 0.25 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: team speed +0.10 (it skates faster than NYR, +3.6%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.08 (its attack ranks #8 of 32, NYR's defense #13); power play +0.07 (its power play ranks #3, NYR's penalty kill and penalty habits #7). Holding it back: Igor Shesterkin in goal -0.27 (a Strong goalie, grade 93, -8.5%); back-to-back -0.23 (it played yesterday, -8.0%). NYR 2.81: 0.20 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.18 (UTA played yesterday, +6.5%); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.8%); power play +0.02 (its power play ranks #15, UTA's penalty kill and penalty habits #17). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.27 (its attack ranks #30 of 32, UTA's defense #12); team speed -0.10 (it skates slower than UTA, -3.4%); Karel Vejmelka in goal -0.05 (a Mid goalie, grade 47, -2.0%). The model projects 5.57 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 42% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 6 goals (UTA 2, NYR 4), so it went over 5.5 and the call was wrong.
CGY#30 OFF / #28 DEF12.51●7O 5.55.5542%5.5 → 5.58:00 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over		D. Wolf ✓ OK 221.900.39-1.6%0.40-2.0%-2.5%-0.6%
SEA#28 OFF / #19 DEF63.04●J. Daccord ✓ Mid 422.070.55+0.2%0.40-2.0%+1.8%+0.9%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
CGY1.85#29 of 322.11#23 of 321.90goals0.43#30 of 320.51#5 of 320.39goals
SEA1.94#24 of 322.19#29 of 322.07goals0.54#19 of 320.57#19 of 320.55goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?PlayerIf outPlayed?
CGYMatt Coronato R-1.5%PlayedMorgan Frost C+0.9%Played
Morgan Frost C-1.3%PlayedConnor Zary C+0.7%Played
Jonathan Huberdeau L-0.8%Didn't playJoel Hanley D+0.6%Didn't play
Ryan Strome C-0.4%PlayedMatt Coronato R+0.4%Played
Mikael Backlund C-0.4%PlayedAdam Klapka R+0.4%Played
SEAJordan Eberle R-2.0%PlayedJordan Eberle R+0.9%Played
Jared McCann L-1.7%PlayedShane Wright C+0.8%Played
Bobby McMann C-1.5%PlayedMatty Beniers C+0.7%Played
Matty Beniers C-1.1%PlayedRyker Evans D+0.7%Played
Shane Wright C-0.9%PlayedBrandon Montour D+0.6%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (5.64 → 5.55)
  • 1:55 AM 5.64 first run
  • 3:01 AM 5.64 no change
  • 11:18 AM 5.55 -0.09Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.09
  • 12:17 PM 5.55 no change
  • 12:45 PM 5.55 no change
  • 1:17 PM 5.55 no change
  • 2:18 PM 5.55 no change
  • 2:40 PM 5.55 no change
  • 3:17 PM 5.55 no change
  • 4:17 PM 5.55 no change
  • 5:17 PM 5.55 no change
  • 5:45 PM 5.55 no change
  • 6:17 PM 5.55 no change
  • 6:22 PM 5.55 no change
  • 7:17 PM 5.55 no change
  • 7:45 PM 5.55 Injuries / lineup: Joel Hanley (CGY) out, Connor Zary (CGY) back in +0.00; CGY goalie Dustin Wolf: Likely → Confirmed; CGY lineup: Eric Francis Oct 4 7:41 PM; SEA goalie Joey Daccord: Likely → Confirmed; SEA lineup: @sound_hockey Oct 4 7:45 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: CGY projects under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (CGY 2.51); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, CGY is bad (1.90) and SEA is good (2.07); on the power play, CGY is trash (0.39) and SEA is mid (0.55). CGY faces Joey Daccord, a Mid goalie, grade 42 (-1.6%); SEA faces Dustin Wolf, an OK goalie, grade 22 (+0.2%). Other factors: both teams played yesterday (-2% each); CGY's team speed costs 2.5%. CGY 2.51: 0.50 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Holding it back: power play -0.17 (its power play ranks #30, SEA's penalty kill and penalty habits #5); 5-on-5 matchup -0.15 (its attack ranks #29 of 32, SEA's defense #23); team speed -0.07 (it skates slower than SEA, -2.5%); back-to-back -0.05 (both teams played yesterday, -2.0%); Joey Daccord in goal -0.04 (a Mid goalie, grade 42, -1.6%); injuries -0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.6%). SEA 3.04: 0.02 goals above what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: team speed +0.05 (it skates faster than CGY, +1.8%); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.9%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.02 (its attack ranks #24 of 32, CGY's defense #29). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.06 (both teams played yesterday, -2.0%); power play -0.01 (its power play ranks #19, CGY's penalty kill and penalty habits #19). The model projects 5.55 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 42% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (CGY 1, SEA 6), so it went over 5.5 and the call was wrong.
8:00 PM ETPASS
U 6.5 ✓ under
paper L -1.00u
FLA#17 OFF / #16 DEF23.10●
J. Markstrom ✓ OK 25
ANA#7 OFF / #27 DEF33.16●
L. Dostal ✓ OK 31
5 goals · proj 6.26 · P(7+) 49%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
FLA2.030.72-0.7%0.40–-1.6%+0.7%
ANA2.120.61-0.1%0.40–+1.7%-0.6%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
FLA1.97#19 of 322.11#24 of 322.03goals
ANA2.23#5 of 321.95#8 of 322.12goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
FLA0.65#6 of 320.61#26 of 320.72goals
ANA0.54#17 of 320.62#27 of 320.61goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPlayed?
FLA
Sam Reinhart C-3.4%Played
Sam Bennett C-3.1%Played
Carter Verhaeghe C-2.8%Played
Matthew Tkachuk L-2.3%Played
Brad Marchand L-2.1%Played
ANA
Cutter Gauthier L-3.1%Played
Beckett Sennecke R-3.0%Played
Leo Carlsson C-3.0%Played
Troy Terry R-2.0%Didn't play
Mikael Granlund C-1.9%Played
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?
FLA
Uvis Balinskis D+0.8%Played
Niko Mikkola D+0.8%Played
Carter Verhaeghe C+0.8%Played
Sam Bennett C+0.7%Played
Sam Reinhart C+0.6%Played
ANA
Leo Carlsson C+0.6%Played
Ian Moore D+0.6%Didn't play
Beckett Sennecke R+0.6%Played
Cutter Gauthier L+0.5%Played
Jackson LaCombe D+0.4%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.32 → 6.26)
  • 1:55 AM 6.32 first run
  • 3:01 AM 6.22 -0.10ANA goalie: Ville Husso → Lukas Dostal -0.10
  • 11:18 AM 6.22 Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-115
  • 12:17 PM 6.22 Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-117
  • 12:45 PM 6.22 no change
  • 1:17 PM 6.22 no change
  • 2:18 PM 6.22 no change
  • 2:40 PM 6.22 no change
  • 3:17 PM 6.22 no change
  • 4:17 PM 6.22 Line 6.5 o-117 → 6.5 o-118
  • 5:17 PM 6.22 Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-117
  • 5:45 PM 6.22 FLA goalie Jacob Markstrom: Likely → Confirmed; FLA lineup: DFO Projections Oct 4 5:44 PM; Line 6.5 o-117 → 6.5 o-118
  • 6:17 PM 6.28 +0.06Injuries / lineup: Brad Marchand (FLA) back in +0.05
  • 7:17 PM 6.28 ANA lineup: Derek Lee Oct 4 7:14 PM; Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-119
  • 7:45 PM 6.26 -0.02Injuries / lineup: Aaron Ekblad (FLA) out, Uvis Balinskis (FLA) back in -0.02; FLA lineup: Steve Goldstein Oct 4 7:37 PM; ANA goalie Lukas Dostal: Likely → Conflict; ANA lineup: Patrick Present Oct 4 7:41 PM; Line 6.5 o-119 → 6.5 o-120

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

PASS: both teams project as high-scoring (FLA 3.10, ANA 3.16; cutoff 2.98) and the line is 6.5, but neither is great at 5-on-5 (FLA mid, ANA good) and they aren't both good, so there's no team to carry the over. At 5-on-5, FLA is mid (2.03) and ANA is good (2.12); on the power play, FLA is great (0.72) and ANA is good (0.61). FLA faces Lukas Dostal, an OK goalie, grade 31 (-0.7%); ANA faces Jacob Markstrom, an OK goalie, grade 25 (-0.1%). FLA 3.10: 0.09 goals above what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: power play +0.16 (its power play ranks #6, ANA's penalty kill and penalty habits #26); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.7%). Holding it back: team speed -0.05 (it skates slower than ANA, -1.6%); Lukas Dostal in goal -0.02 (an OK goalie, grade 31, -0.7%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.02 (its attack ranks #19 of 32, ANA's defense #24). ANA 3.16: 0.15 goals above what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.07 (its attack ranks #5 of 32, FLA's defense #8); team speed +0.05 (it skates faster than FLA, +1.7%); power play +0.04 (its power play ranks #17, FLA's penalty kill and penalty habits #27). Holding it back: injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.6%). The model projects 6.26 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 49% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Flagged games like this went over only 47% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (FLA 2, ANA 3), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.
9:00 PM ETAVOID
U 6.5 ✓ under
VGK#6 OFF / #3 DEF33.79●
A. Hill ✓ OK 21
VAN#22 OFF / #32 DEF22.38●
K. Lankinen ✓ Trash 1
5 goals · proj 6.17 · P(7+) 48%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
VGK2.240.68+5.5%0.40+6.5%+0.8%+0.5%
VAN1.800.45+0.3%0.40-8.0%-1.1%-1.5%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
VGK2.10#12 of 322.19#28 of 322.24goals
VAN1.98#17 of 321.86#1 of 321.80goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
VGK0.63#9 of 320.60#24 of 320.68goals
VAN0.56#16 of 320.44#1 of 320.45goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPlayed?
VGK
Jack Eichel C-4.7%Played
Mitch Marner R-4.0%Played
Mark Stone R-3.7%Played
Tomas Hertl C-3.7%Played
Ivan Barbashev L-1.8%Played
VAN
Jake DeBrusk L-1.8%Didn't play
Brock Boeser R-1.7%Played
Elias Pettersson C-1.7%Played
Marco Rossi C-1.2%Played
Linus Karlsson C-1.0%Played
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?
VGK
Tomas Hertl C+1.6%Played
Shea Theodore D+1.3%Played
Mark Stone R+1.2%Played
Ivan Barbashev L+1.2%Played
Noah Hanifin D+1.1%Played
VAN
Linus Karlsson C+0.8%Played
Jake DeBrusk L+0.6%Didn't play
Elias Pettersson C+0.5%Played
Marco Rossi C+0.4%Played
Zeev Buium D+0.4%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.24 → 6.17)
  • 1:55 AM 6.24 first run
  • 3:01 AM 6.27 +0.03VGK goalie: Adin Hill → Carter Hart +0.03; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o+102
  • 11:18 AM 6.20 -0.07Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.07; Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o+109
  • 12:17 PM 6.20 Line 6.5 o+109 → 6.5 o+110
  • 12:45 PM 6.20 no change
  • 1:17 PM 6.20 no change
  • 2:18 PM 6.20 Line 6.5 o+110 → 6.5 o-101
  • 2:40 PM 6.20 no change
  • 3:17 PM 6.20 no change
  • 4:17 PM 6.17 -0.03VGK goalie: Carter Hart → Adin Hill -0.03
  • 5:17 PM 6.17 no change
  • 5:45 PM 6.17 no change
  • 6:17 PM 6.17 no change
  • 6:22 PM 6.17 no change
  • 7:17 PM 6.17 Line 6.5 o-101 → 6.5 o+101
  • 7:45 PM 6.17 no change
  • 7:49 PM 6.17 Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o+105
  • 8:17 PM 6.17 no change
  • 8:45 PM 6.17 VGK goalie Adin Hill: Likely → Confirmed; VGK lineup: Sin Bin Vegas Oct 4 8:36 PM; VAN goalie Kevin Lankinen: Likely → Confirmed; VAN lineup: Brendan Batchelor Oct 4 8:37 PM; Line 6.5 o+105 → 6.5 o+102

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: VAN projects under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (VAN 2.38). The 6.17 total looks high, but most of it comes from VGK; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, VGK is great (2.24) and VAN is trash (1.80); on the power play, VGK is great (0.68) and VAN is trash (0.45). VGK faces Kevin Lankinen, a Trash goalie, grade 1 (+5.5%); VAN faces Adin Hill, an OK goalie, grade 21 (+0.3%). Other factors: VGK's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); VAN played yesterday (-8%); injuries cost VAN 1.5%. VGK 3.79: 0.78 goals above what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.23 (VAN played yesterday, +6.5%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.19 (its attack ranks #12 of 32, VAN's defense #28); Kevin Lankinen in goal +0.18 (a Trash goalie, grade 1, +5.5%); power play +0.12 (its power play ranks #9, VAN's penalty kill and penalty habits #24); team speed +0.03 (it skates faster than VAN, +0.8%); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.5%). VAN 2.38: 0.63 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.25 (its attack ranks #17 of 32, VGK's defense #1); back-to-back -0.21 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); power play -0.11 (its power play ranks #16, VGK's penalty kill and penalty habits #1); injuries -0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.5%); team speed -0.03 (it skates slower than VGK, -1.1%). The model projects 6.17 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 48% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (VGK 3, VAN 2), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.
1:00 PM ETAVOID
U 5.5 ✓ under
WPG#19 OFF / #26 DEF32.85●
S. Skinner ✓ Mid 41
DET#24 OFF / #11 DEF22.80●
J. Gibson ✓ Mid 42
5 goals · proj 5.65 · P(7+) 43%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
WPG1.920.58-1.6%0.40–-1.7%+1.7%
DET1.880.55-1.4%0.40–+1.3%-1.2%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
WPG1.95#20 of 322.02#15 of 321.92goals
DET1.84#31 of 322.10#20 of 321.88goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
WPG0.58#12 of 320.55#15 of 320.58goals
DET0.58#12 of 320.53#10 of 320.55goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPlayed?
WPG
Kyle Connor L-5.0%Played
Mark Scheifele C-4.5%Played
Gabriel Vilardi C-2.8%Played
Josh Morrissey D-1.5%Played
Cole Perfetti C-1.4%Played
DET
Alex DeBrincat R-5.1%Played
Lucas Raymond L-3.7%Played
Dylan Larkin C-3.2%Didn't play
Moritz Seider D-1.1%Played
Andrew Copp C-0.3%Played
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?
WPG
Cole Perfetti C+1.3%Played
Josh Morrissey D+1.1%Played
Nino Niederreiter R+0.9%Played
Alex Iafallo L+0.6%Played
Vladislav Namestnikov C+0.5%Played
DET
Moritz Seider D+1.3%Played
Alex DeBrincat R+1.2%Played
Lucas Raymond L+1.2%Played
Emmitt Finnie C+0.7%Played
Axel Sandin-Pellikka D+0.6%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (5.74 → 5.65)
  • 1:55 AM 5.74 first run
  • 3:01 AM 5.65 -0.09DET goalie: Daniil Tarasov → John Gibson -0.08
  • 11:18 AM 5.65 no change
  • 12:17 PM 5.65 Line 5.5 o-121 → 5.5 o-120
  • 12:45 PM 5.65 WPG goalie Stuart Skinner: Likely → Confirmed; WPG lineup: Ken Wiebe Oct 4 12:39 PM; DET goalie John Gibson: Likely → Confirmed; DET lineup: Ansar Khan Oct 4 12:40 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: WPG and DET project under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (WPG 2.85, DET 2.80); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, WPG is bad (1.92) and DET is bad (1.88); on the power play, WPG is mid (0.58) and DET is mid (0.55). WPG faces John Gibson, a Mid goalie, grade 42 (-1.6%); DET faces Stuart Skinner, a Mid goalie, grade 41 (-1.4%). Other factors: injuries help WPG 1.7%. WPG 2.85: 0.16 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: injuries +0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.7%); power play +0.02 (its power play ranks #12, DET's penalty kill and penalty habits #15). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.13 (its attack ranks #20 of 32, DET's defense #15); team speed -0.05 (it skates slower than DET, -1.7%); John Gibson in goal -0.04 (a Mid goalie, grade 42, -1.6%). DET 2.80: 0.21 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: team speed +0.04 (it skates faster than WPG, +1.3%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.17 (its attack ranks #31 of 32, WPG's defense #20); Stuart Skinner in goal -0.04 (a Mid goalie, grade 41, -1.4%); injuries -0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.2%). The model projects 5.65 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 43% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (WPG 3, DET 2), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.
6:00 PM ETAVOID
O 5.5 ✗ went over
UTA#9 OFF / #5 DEF22.76●
K. Vejmelka ✓ Mid 47
NYR#26 OFF / #9 DEF42.81●
I. Shesterkin ✓ Strong 93
6 goals · proj 5.57 · P(7+) 42%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
UTA2.130.63-8.5%0.40-8.0%+3.6%–
NYR1.780.58-2.0%0.40+6.5%-3.4%+0.8%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
UTA2.20#8 of 321.98#13 of 322.13goals
NYR1.84#30 of 321.98#12 of 321.78goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
UTA0.67#3 of 320.52#7 of 320.63goals
NYR0.57#15 of 320.56#17 of 320.58goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPlayed?
UTA
Dylan Guenther R-4.0%Played
Clayton Keller R-3.8%Played
Nick Schmaltz C-3.6%Played
Logan Cooley C-2.2%Played
Mikhail Sergachev D-1.4%Played
NYR
Mika Zibanejad C-3.1%Played
Alexis Lafrenière L-2.4%Played
J.T. Miller C-2.1%Played
Adam Fox D-1.7%Played
Will Cuylle L-0.8%Played
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?
UTA
Clayton Keller R+1.6%Played
Nate Schmidt D+1.4%Played
Nick Schmaltz C+1.0%Played
Barrett Hayton C+1.0%Played
Michael Carcone L+0.9%Played
NYR
Alexis Lafrenière L+0.8%Played
Adam Fox D+0.6%Played
Gabe Perreault R+0.4%Played
Vladislav Gavrikov D+0.4%Played
Tye Kartye L+0.4%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (5.55 → 5.57)
  • 1:55 AM 5.55 first run
  • 3:01 AM 5.55 Line 5.5 o-123 → 5.5 o-126
  • 11:18 AM 5.57 +0.02Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.02; UTA lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-03); NYR lineup: Peter Baugh Oct 4 10:20 AM; Line 5.5 o-126 → 5.5 o-119
  • 12:17 PM 5.57 Line 5.5 o-119 → 5.5 o-120
  • 12:45 PM 5.57 no change
  • 1:17 PM 5.57 no change
  • 2:18 PM 5.57 no change
  • 2:40 PM 5.57 no change
  • 3:17 PM 5.57 no change
  • 4:17 PM 5.57 no change
  • 5:17 PM 5.57 no change
  • 5:45 PM 5.57 UTA goalie Karel Vejmelka: Likely → Confirmed; UTA lineup: Utah Mammoth Oct 4 5:37 PM; NYR goalie Igor Shesterkin: Likely → Confirmed; NYR lineup: Vince Mervogliano Oct 4 5:36 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: UTA and NYR project under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (UTA 2.76, NYR 2.81); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, UTA is good (2.13) and NYR is trash (1.78); on the power play, UTA is good (0.63) and NYR is mid (0.58). UTA faces Igor Shesterkin, a Strong goalie, grade 93 (-8.5%); NYR faces Karel Vejmelka, a Mid goalie, grade 47 (-2.0%). Other factors: UTA played yesterday (-8%); UTA's team speed adds 3.6%; NYR's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); NYR's team speed costs 3.4%. UTA 2.76: 0.25 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: team speed +0.10 (it skates faster than NYR, +3.6%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.08 (its attack ranks #8 of 32, NYR's defense #13); power play +0.07 (its power play ranks #3, NYR's penalty kill and penalty habits #7). Holding it back: Igor Shesterkin in goal -0.27 (a Strong goalie, grade 93, -8.5%); back-to-back -0.23 (it played yesterday, -8.0%). NYR 2.81: 0.20 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.18 (UTA played yesterday, +6.5%); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.8%); power play +0.02 (its power play ranks #15, UTA's penalty kill and penalty habits #17). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.27 (its attack ranks #30 of 32, UTA's defense #12); team speed -0.10 (it skates slower than UTA, -3.4%); Karel Vejmelka in goal -0.05 (a Mid goalie, grade 47, -2.0%). The model projects 5.57 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 42% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 6 goals (UTA 2, NYR 4), so it went over 5.5 and the call was wrong.
8:00 PM ETAVOID
O 5.5 ✗ went over
CGY#30 OFF / #28 DEF12.51●
D. Wolf ✓ OK 22
SEA#28 OFF / #19 DEF63.04●
J. Daccord ✓ Mid 42
7 goals · proj 5.55 · P(7+) 42%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
CGY1.900.39-1.6%0.40-2.0%-2.5%-0.6%
SEA2.070.55+0.2%0.40-2.0%+1.8%+0.9%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
CGY1.85#29 of 322.11#23 of 321.90goals
SEA1.94#24 of 322.19#29 of 322.07goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
CGY0.43#30 of 320.51#5 of 320.39goals
SEA0.54#19 of 320.57#19 of 320.55goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPlayed?
CGY
Matt Coronato R-1.5%Played
Morgan Frost C-1.3%Played
Jonathan Huberdeau L-0.8%Didn't play
Ryan Strome C-0.4%Played
Mikael Backlund C-0.4%Played
SEA
Jordan Eberle R-2.0%Played
Jared McCann L-1.7%Played
Bobby McMann C-1.5%Played
Matty Beniers C-1.1%Played
Shane Wright C-0.9%Played
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?
CGY
Morgan Frost C+0.9%Played
Connor Zary C+0.7%Played
Joel Hanley D+0.6%Didn't play
Matt Coronato R+0.4%Played
Adam Klapka R+0.4%Played
SEA
Jordan Eberle R+0.9%Played
Shane Wright C+0.8%Played
Matty Beniers C+0.7%Played
Ryker Evans D+0.7%Played
Brandon Montour D+0.6%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (5.64 → 5.55)
  • 1:55 AM 5.64 first run
  • 3:01 AM 5.64 no change
  • 11:18 AM 5.55 -0.09Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.09
  • 12:17 PM 5.55 no change
  • 12:45 PM 5.55 no change
  • 1:17 PM 5.55 no change
  • 2:18 PM 5.55 no change
  • 2:40 PM 5.55 no change
  • 3:17 PM 5.55 no change
  • 4:17 PM 5.55 no change
  • 5:17 PM 5.55 no change
  • 5:45 PM 5.55 no change
  • 6:17 PM 5.55 no change
  • 6:22 PM 5.55 no change
  • 7:17 PM 5.55 no change
  • 7:45 PM 5.55 Injuries / lineup: Joel Hanley (CGY) out, Connor Zary (CGY) back in +0.00; CGY goalie Dustin Wolf: Likely → Confirmed; CGY lineup: Eric Francis Oct 4 7:41 PM; SEA goalie Joey Daccord: Likely → Confirmed; SEA lineup: @sound_hockey Oct 4 7:45 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: CGY projects under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (CGY 2.51); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, CGY is bad (1.90) and SEA is good (2.07); on the power play, CGY is trash (0.39) and SEA is mid (0.55). CGY faces Joey Daccord, a Mid goalie, grade 42 (-1.6%); SEA faces Dustin Wolf, an OK goalie, grade 22 (+0.2%). Other factors: both teams played yesterday (-2% each); CGY's team speed costs 2.5%. CGY 2.51: 0.50 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Holding it back: power play -0.17 (its power play ranks #30, SEA's penalty kill and penalty habits #5); 5-on-5 matchup -0.15 (its attack ranks #29 of 32, SEA's defense #23); team speed -0.07 (it skates slower than SEA, -2.5%); back-to-back -0.05 (both teams played yesterday, -2.0%); Joey Daccord in goal -0.04 (a Mid goalie, grade 42, -1.6%); injuries -0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.6%). SEA 3.04: 0.02 goals above what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: team speed +0.05 (it skates faster than CGY, +1.8%); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.9%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.02 (its attack ranks #24 of 32, CGY's defense #29). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.06 (both teams played yesterday, -2.0%); power play -0.01 (its power play ranks #19, CGY's penalty kill and penalty habits #19). The model projects 5.55 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 42% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (CGY 1, SEA 6), so it went over 5.5 and the call was wrong.

Two rows per game (away, then home). ● = team projected high-scoring. Proj = (5v5 + PP + Oth) × goalie (Gl) × back-to-back (B2B) × team speed (Spd) × injuries (Inj). Hover or tap any underlined label for an explanation.