NHL Total Model · 2026-10-08

7:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

VAN#25 OFF / #32 DEF22.80●

K. Lankinen ✓ Trash 1

CAR#2 OFF / #3 DEF73.79●

P. Kochetkov ✓ Mid 42

9 goals · proj 6.59 · P(7+) 48%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
VAN	1.84	0.50	-1.5%	0.51	–	-1.5%	+1.3%
CAR	2.39	0.77	+5.1%	0.50	–	+1.3%	-2.9%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
VAN	1.93#23 of 32	1.94#8 of 32	1.84goals
CAR	2.20#9 of 32	2.22#31 of 32	2.39goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
VAN	0.57#17 of 32	0.49#2 of 32	0.50goals
CAR	0.66#5 of 32	0.65#30 of 32	0.77goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
VAN
Jake DeBrusk L	-1.7%	Played
Brock Boeser R	-1.7%	Played
Elias Pettersson C	-1.7%	Played
Marco Rossi C	-1.2%	Played
Linus Karlsson C	-1.0%	Played
CAR
Sebastian Aho C	-4.4%	Played
Andrei Svechnikov R	-3.8%	Played
Nikolaj Ehlers L	-3.1%	Played
Seth Jarvis C	-2.9%	Didn't play
Jackson Blake R	-2.5%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
VAN
Linus Karlsson C	+0.8%	Played
Jake DeBrusk L	+0.5%	Played
Elias Pettersson C	+0.5%	Played
Marco Rossi C	+0.4%	Played
Zeev Buium D	+0.4%	Played
CAR
Jackson Blake R	+1.8%	Played
Nikolaj Ehlers L	+1.4%	Played
Logan Stankoven C	+1.4%	Played
Shayne Gostisbehere D	+1.4%	Played
Sean Walker D	+1.4%	Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.38 → 6.59)

12:13 AM 6.38 first run
3:30 AM 6.43 +0.05CAR goalie: Pyotr Kochetkov → Brandon Bussi +0.05; Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o-102
11:18 AM 6.37 -0.06CAR goalie: Brandon Bussi → Pyotr Kochetkov -0.05; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; CAR lineup: Walt Ruff Oct 8 10:49 AM; Line 6.5 o-102 → 6.5 o-100
12:17 PM 6.37 VAN goalie Kevin Lankinen: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o-101
1:17 PM 6.37 VAN lineup: Projected Oct 8 1:06 PM; Line 6.5 o-101 → 6.5 o-102
2:18 PM 6.37 no change
3:17 PM 6.37 no change
4:17 PM 6.59 +0.22Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.22
4:43 PM 6.59 no change
5:15 PM 6.59 no change
5:17 PM 6.59 no change
6:17 PM 6.59 no change
6:45 PM 6.59 VAN lineup: Thomas Drance Oct 8 6:38 PM; CAR lineup: Walt Ruff Oct 8 6:38 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: VAN projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (VAN 2.80). The 6.59 total looks high, but most of it comes from CAR; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, VAN is bad (1.84) and CAR is great (2.39); on the power play, VAN is bad (0.50) and CAR is great (0.77). VAN faces Pyotr Kochetkov, a Mid goalie, grade 42 (-1.5%); CAR faces Kevin Lankinen, a Trash goalie, grade 1 (+5.1%). Other factors: injuries cost CAR 2.9%. VAN 2.80: 0.33 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: injuries +0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.3%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.21 (its attack ranks #23 of 32, CAR's defense #8); power play -0.07 (its power play ranks #17, CAR's penalty kill and penalty habits #2); Pyotr Kochetkov in goal -0.04 (a Mid goalie, grade 42, -1.5%); team speed -0.04 (it skates slower than CAR, -1.5%). CAR 3.79: 0.67 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.35 (its attack ranks #9 of 32, VAN's defense #31); power play +0.20 (its power play ranks #5, VAN's penalty kill and penalty habits #30); Kevin Lankinen in goal +0.19 (a Trash goalie, grade 1, +5.1%); team speed +0.05 (it skates faster than VAN, +1.3%). Holding it back: injuries -0.11 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.9%). The model projects 6.59 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 48% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 9 goals (VAN 2, CAR 7), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

10:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

TOR#23 OFF / #31 DEF32.69●

S. Bobrovsky ✓ OK 37

VGK#4 OFF / #2 DEF43.65●

A. Hill ✓ Trash 20

7 goals · proj 6.34 · P(7+) 45%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
TOR	1.75	0.44	+0.4%	0.51	–	-0.5%	-0.1%
VGK	2.34	0.83	-1.2%	0.51	–	+0.3%	+0.3%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
TOR	1.96#17 of 32	1.82#1 of 32	1.75goals
VGK	2.16#10 of 32	2.21#30 of 32	2.34goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
TOR	0.56#18 of 32	0.43#1 of 32	0.44goals
VGK	0.71#2 of 32	0.64#29 of 32	0.83goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
TOR
William Nylander R	-4.4%	Played
Auston Matthews C	-3.8%	Played
John Tavares C	-3.6%	Played
Kirill Marchenko R	-0.7%	Played
Darren Raddysh D	-0.6%	Played
VGK
Jack Eichel C	-4.8%	Played
Mitch Marner R	-4.0%	Played
Mark Stone R	-3.9%	Played
Tomas Hertl C	-3.7%	Played
Ivan Barbashev L	-1.8%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
TOR
Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	+0.3%	Played
Darren Raddysh D	+0.3%	Played
Jack Roslovic C	+0.2%	Played
John Tavares C	+0.2%	Played
Kirill Marchenko R	+0.2%	Played
VGK
Tomas Hertl C	+1.6%	Played
Shea Theodore D	+1.3%	Played
Mark Stone R	+1.3%	Played
Ivan Barbashev L	+1.2%	Played
Noah Hanifin D	+1.1%	Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.16 → 6.34)

12:13 AM 6.16 first run
3:30 AM 6.16 Line 6.5 o-101 → 6.5 o-100
11:18 AM 6.15 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o-107
12:17 PM 6.15 Line 6.5 o-107 → 6.5 o-108
1:17 PM 6.15 no change
2:18 PM 6.15 no change
3:17 PM 6.12 -0.02VGK goalie: Carter Hart → Adin Hill -0.02; TOR goalie Sergei Bobrovsky: Likely → Confirmed; Raphael Lavoie (VGK) day-to-day; Victor Olofsson (VGK) off day-to-day; VGK lineup: Jesse Granger Oct 8 3:16 PM; Line 6.5 o-108 → 6.5 o-115
4:17 PM 6.34 +0.22Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.22; TOR lineup: David Alter Oct 8 3:20 PM
4:43 PM 6.34 no change
5:15 PM 6.34 no change
5:17 PM 6.34 no change
6:17 PM 6.34 no change
6:45 PM 6.34 Raphael Lavoie (VGK) off day-to-day
7:17 PM 6.34 no change
7:45 PM 6.34 no change
8:17 PM 6.34 no change
8:45 PM 6.34 no change
9:16 PM 6.34 Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-118
9:17 PM 6.34 no change
9:45 PM 6.34 TOR lineup: David Alter Oct 8 9:45 PM; Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-124

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: TOR projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (TOR 2.69). The 6.34 total looks high, but most of it comes from VGK; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, TOR is trash (1.75) and VGK is great (2.34); on the power play, TOR is trash (0.44) and VGK is great (0.83). TOR faces Adin Hill, a Trash goalie, grade 20 (+0.4%); VGK faces Sergei Bobrovsky, an OK goalie, grade 37 (-1.2%). TOR 2.69: 0.44 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: Adin Hill in goal +0.01 (a Trash goalie, grade 20, +0.4%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.29 (its attack ranks #17 of 32, VGK's defense #1); power play -0.14 (its power play ranks #18, VGK's penalty kill and penalty habits #1); team speed -0.01 (it skates slower than VGK, -0.5%). VGK 3.65: 0.53 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.29 (its attack ranks #10 of 32, TOR's defense #30); power play +0.26 (its power play ranks #2, TOR's penalty kill and penalty habits #29); injuries +0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.3%); team speed +0.01 (it skates faster than TOR, +0.3%). Holding it back: Sergei Bobrovsky in goal -0.04 (an OK goalie, grade 37, -1.2%). The model projects 6.34 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (TOR 3, VGK 4), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

7:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

NSH#21 OFF / #24 DEF52.99●

J. Saros ✓ OK 36

MTL#12 OFF / #28 DEF23.31●

J. Fowler ✓ Mid 49

7 goals · proj 6.29 · P(7+) 48%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
NSH	1.99	0.66	-2.1%	0.52	–	-4.4%	+0.9%
MTL	2.17	0.59	-1.1%	0.50	–	+4.4%	-1.9%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NSH	1.90#27 of 32	2.14#23 of 32	1.99goals
MTL	2.12#11 of 32	2.09#20 of 32	2.17goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NSH	0.60#15 of 32	0.61#23 of 32	0.66goals
MTL	0.54#19 of 32	0.60#22 of 32	0.59goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
NSH
Filip Forsberg L	-4.2%	Played
Steven Stamkos C	-4.0%	Played
Ryan O'Reilly C	-3.0%	Played
Roman Josi D	-1.4%	Played
Jonathan Marchessault R	-1.1%	Played
MTL
Cole Caufield R	-5.3%	Played
Nick Suzuki C	-5.0%	Played
Juraj Slafkovský L	-3.3%	Played
Ivan Demidov R	-2.3%	Didn't play
Lane Hutson D	-2.2%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
NSH
Filip Forsberg L	+0.7%	Played
Steven Stamkos C	+0.7%	Played
Roman Josi D	+0.4%	Played
Adam Wilsby D	+0.4%	Played
Jonathan Marchessault R	+0.2%	Played
MTL
Lane Hutson D	+2.0%	Played
Cole Caufield R	+1.2%	Played
Zachary Bolduc R	+1.2%	Played
Nick Suzuki C	+1.1%	Played
Ivan Demidov R	+0.8%	Didn't play

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.02 → 6.29)

12:13 AM 6.02 first run
3:30 AM 6.03 +0.01NSH goalie: Justus Annunen → Juuse Saros +0.01; Line 6.5 o+105 → 6.5 o-109
11:18 AM 6.07 +0.04MTL goalie: Jakub Dobes → Jacob Fowler +0.05; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; NSH goalie Juuse Saros: Confirmed → Likely; Line 6.5 o-109 → 6.5 o+102
12:17 PM 6.08 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Jayden Struble (MTL) out +0.01; NSH goalie Juuse Saros: Likely → Confirmed
1:17 PM 6.08 no change
2:18 PM 6.08 Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o-107
3:17 PM 6.08 Line 6.5 o-107 → 6.5 o+102
4:17 PM 6.30 +0.22Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.22
4:43 PM 6.30 no change
5:15 PM 6.30 no change
5:17 PM 6.30 no change
6:17 PM 6.30 no change
6:45 PM 6.29 -0.01Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated -0.01; NSH lineup: Brooks Bratten Oct 8 6:43 PM; MTL lineup: Anthony Martineau Oct 8 6:43 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: NSH projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (NSH 2.99). The 6.29 total looks high, but most of it comes from MTL; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, NSH is mid (1.99) and MTL is good (2.17); on the power play, NSH is great (0.66) and MTL is good (0.59). NSH faces Jacob Fowler, a Mid goalie, grade 49 (-2.1%); MTL faces Juuse Saros, an OK goalie, grade 36 (-1.1%). Other factors: NSH's team speed costs 4.4%; MTL's team speed adds 4.4%; injuries cost MTL 1.9%. NSH 2.99: 0.14 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: power play +0.09 (its power play ranks #15, MTL's penalty kill and penalty habits #23); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.9%). Holding it back: team speed -0.14 (it skates slower than MTL, -4.4%); Jacob Fowler in goal -0.07 (a Mid goalie, grade 49, -2.1%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.05 (its attack ranks #27 of 32, MTL's defense #23). MTL 3.31: 0.18 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: team speed +0.14 (it skates faster than NSH, +4.4%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.12 (its attack ranks #11 of 32, NSH's defense #20); power play +0.02 (its power play ranks #19, NSH's penalty kill and penalty habits #22). Holding it back: injuries -0.06 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.9%); Juuse Saros in goal -0.04 (an OK goalie, grade 36, -1.1%). The model projects 6.29 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 48% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (NSH 5, MTL 2), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

7:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6 ✗ went over

UTA#6 OFF / #5 DEF13.39●

S. Cossa ✓ OK 33

BOS#26 OFF / #20 DEF62.81●

J. Swayman ✓ Strong 84

7 goals · proj 6.20 · P(7+) 45%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
UTA	2.20	0.75	-6.0%	0.51	–	+4.9%	-0.4%
BOS	1.96	0.50	-0.8%	0.51	–	-4.9%	-0.1%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
UTA	2.21#7 of 32	2.03#17 of 32	2.20goals
BOS	2.01#16 of 32	2.00#15 of 32	1.96goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
UTA	0.74#1 of 32	0.56#16 of 32	0.75goals
BOS	0.50#25 of 32	0.56#15 of 32	0.50goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
UTA
Dylan Guenther R	-4.0%	Played
Clayton Keller R	-3.8%	Played
Nick Schmaltz C	-3.6%	Played
Logan Cooley C	-2.4%	Played
Mikhail Sergachev D	-1.4%	Played
BOS
David Pastrnak R	-4.2%	Played
Morgan Geekie C	-3.3%	Played
Pavel Zacha C	-2.4%	Played
Elias Lindholm C	-1.5%	Played
Casey Mittelstadt C	-1.0%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
UTA
Clayton Keller R	+1.6%	Played
Nate Schmidt D	+1.4%	Played
Nick Schmaltz C	+1.0%	Played
Barrett Hayton C	+1.0%	Played
Michael Carcone L	+0.9%	Played
BOS
David Pastrnak R	+0.9%	Played
Mason Lohrei D	+0.7%	Played
Morgan Geekie C	+0.7%	Played
Casey Mittelstadt C	+0.5%	Played
Fraser Minten C	+0.3%	Played

Also out: BOS: Charlie McAvoy -0.8% attack, -0.1% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (5.96 → 6.20)

12:13 AM 5.96 first run
3:30 AM 5.96 no change
11:18 AM 5.95 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 6 o-120 → 6 o-118
12:17 PM 5.98 +0.03UTA goalie: Karel Vejmelka → Sebastian Cossa +0.03; UTA lineup: Cole Bagley Oct 8 11:51 AM; BOS goalie Jeremy Swayman: Likely → Confirmed; BOS lineup: Jack Studley Oct 8 11:20 AM; Line 6 o-118 → 6 o-109
1:17 PM 5.98 no change
2:18 PM 5.98 Line 6 o-109 → 6 o-124
3:17 PM 5.98 Line 6 o-124 → 6 o-110
4:17 PM 6.20 +0.22Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.22; Line 6 o-110 → 6 o-109
4:43 PM 6.20 no change
5:15 PM 6.20 Line 6 o-109 → 6 o-123
5:17 PM 6.20 no change
6:17 PM 6.20 Line 6 o-123 → 6 o-109
6:45 PM 6.20 Mikhail Sergachev (UTA) off day-to-day; UTA lineup: Utah Mammoth Oct 8 6:44 PM; BOS lineup: Belle Fraser Oct 8 6:42 PM; Line 6 o-109 → 6 o-124

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: BOS projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (BOS 2.81). The 6.20 total looks high, but most of it comes from UTA; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, UTA is great (2.20) and BOS is mid (1.96); on the power play, UTA is great (0.75) and BOS is bad (0.50). UTA faces Jeremy Swayman, a Strong goalie, grade 84 (-6.0%); BOS faces Sebastian Cossa, an OK goalie, grade 33 (-0.8%). Other factors: UTA's team speed adds 4.9%; BOS's team speed costs 4.9%. UTA 3.39: 0.27 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: power play +0.17 (its power play ranks #1, BOS's penalty kill and penalty habits #16); team speed +0.16 (it skates faster than BOS, +4.9%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.15 (its attack ranks #7 of 32, BOS's defense #17). Holding it back: Jeremy Swayman in goal -0.21 (a Strong goalie, grade 84, -6.0%); injuries -0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.4%). BOS 2.81: 0.32 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Holding it back: team speed -0.14 (it skates slower than UTA, -4.9%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.08 (its attack ranks #16 of 32, UTA's defense #15); power play -0.07 (its power play ranks #25, UTA's penalty kill and penalty habits #15); Sebastian Cossa in goal -0.02 (an OK goalie, grade 33, -0.8%). The model projects 6.20 total goals against a 6 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 5.5 to 6, toward the over. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (UTA 1, BOS 6), so it went over 6 and the call was wrong.

9:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

COL#1 OFF / #1 DEF73.71●

S. Wedgewood ✓ Good 72

CGY#29 OFF / #27 DEF32.42●

D. Cooley ✓ Good 66

10 goals · proj 6.13 · P(7+) 42%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
COL	2.74	0.58	-3.6%	0.51	-8.0%	+8.4%	+0.7%
CGY	1.68	0.40	-4.2%	0.52	+6.5%	-8.1%	-0.7%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
COL	2.54#1 of 32	2.19#29 of 32	2.74goals
CGY	1.78#31 of 32	1.93#7 of 32	1.68goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
COL	0.60#12 of 32	0.53#9 of 32	0.58goals
CGY	0.45#30 of 32	0.50#4 of 32	0.40goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
COL
Nathan MacKinnon C	-6.6%	Played
Martin Necas C	-4.9%	Played
Cale Makar D	-3.3%	Played
Brock Nelson C	-2.7%	Played
Artturi Lehkonen L	-2.4%	Played
CGY
Matt Coronato R	-1.5%	Played
Morgan Frost C	-1.3%	Played
Jonathan Huberdeau L	-0.8%	Didn't play
Ryan Strome C	-0.4%	Played
Mikael Backlund C	-0.4%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
COL
Sam Malinski D	+1.5%	Didn't play
Martin Necas C	+1.4%	Played
Nathan MacKinnon C	+1.2%	Played
Cale Makar D	+0.8%	Played
Brett Kulak D	+0.8%	Played
CGY
Morgan Frost C	+0.9%	Played
Connor Zary C	+0.8%	Didn't play
Joel Hanley D	+0.5%	Didn't play
Matt Coronato R	+0.4%	Played
Adam Klapka R	+0.4%	Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.22 → 6.13)

12:13 AM 6.22 first run
3:30 AM 6.18 -0.05COL goalie: Mackenzie Blackwood → Scott Wedgewood -0.05; Line 6.5 o-107 → 6.5 o-109
11:18 AM 6.08 -0.09Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.09; COL lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-07); Line 6.5 o-109 → 6.5 o+101
12:17 PM 6.08 COL goalie Scott Wedgewood: Likely → Confirmed
1:17 PM 5.91 -0.17CGY goalie: Dustin Wolf → Devin Cooley -0.17; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; COL lineup: Aarif Deen Oct 8 1:13 PM; Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o-108
2:18 PM 5.91 CGY lineup: Pat Steinberg Oct 8 1:36 PM
3:17 PM 5.91 no change
4:17 PM 6.13 +0.22Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.22
4:43 PM 6.13 no change
5:15 PM 6.13 no change
5:17 PM 6.13 no change
6:17 PM 6.13 no change
6:45 PM 6.13 no change
7:17 PM 6.13 no change
7:45 PM 6.13 no change
8:17 PM 6.13 Line 6.5 o-108 → 6.5 o+102
8:45 PM 6.13 no change

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: CGY projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (CGY 2.42). The 6.13 total looks high, but most of it comes from COL; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, COL is great (2.74) and CGY is trash (1.68); on the power play, COL is mid (0.58) and CGY is trash (0.40). COL faces Devin Cooley, a Good goalie, grade 66 (-3.6%); CGY faces Scott Wedgewood, a Good goalie, grade 72 (-4.2%). Other factors: COL played yesterday (-8%); COL's team speed adds 8.4%; CGY's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); CGY's team speed costs 8.1%. COL 3.71: 0.59 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.69 (its attack ranks #1 of 32, CGY's defense #29); team speed +0.29 (it skates faster than CGY, +8.4%); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.7%); power play +0.01 (its power play ranks #12, CGY's penalty kill and penalty habits #9). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.30 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); Devin Cooley in goal -0.14 (a Good goalie, grade 66, -3.6%). CGY 2.42: 0.70 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.16 (COL played yesterday, +6.5%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.36 (its attack ranks #31 of 32, COL's defense #7); team speed -0.22 (it skates slower than COL, -8.1%); power play -0.17 (its power play ranks #30, COL's penalty kill and penalty habits #4); Scott Wedgewood in goal -0.11 (a Good goalie, grade 72, -4.2%); injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.7%). The model projects 6.13 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 42% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 10 goals (COL 7, CGY 3), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

7:30 PM ETAVOID

U 6 ✓ under

CHI#32 OFF / #29 DEF12.62●

A. Soderblom ✓ Trash 4

NYI#22 OFF / #23 DEF43.46●

I. Sorokin ✓ Strong 92

5 goals · proj 6.08 · P(7+) 43%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
CHI	1.92	0.52	-8.0%	0.52	–	-2.8%	-1.1%
NYI	2.29	0.50	+3.4%	0.50	–	+3.0%	-1.3%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CHI	1.80#30 of 32	2.18#28 of 32	1.92goals
NYI	1.96#19 of 32	2.39#32 of 32	2.29goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CHI	0.45#29 of 32	0.64#27 of 32	0.52goals
NYI	0.53#21 of 32	0.52#7 of 32	0.50goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
CHI
Tyler Bertuzzi L	-2.3%	Played
Connor Bedard C	-1.9%	Didn't play
Frank Nazar C	-0.8%	Played
Ryan Donato C	-0.6%	Played
Teuvo Teravainen C	-0.6%	Didn't play
NYI
Bo Horvat C	-2.7%	Played
Mathew Barzal C	-2.2%	Didn't play
Matthew Schaefer D	-2.1%	Played
Brayden Schenn C	-1.0%	Played
Calum Ritchie C	-0.7%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
CHI
Andrew Mangiapane L	+0.5%	Didn't play
Tyler Bertuzzi L	+0.4%	Played
Oliver Moore C	+0.2%	Played
Ryan Donato C	+0.2%	Played
Sam Rinzel D	+0.2%	Played
NYI
Mathew Barzal C	+0.9%	Didn't play
Matthew Schaefer D	+0.9%	Played
Emil Heineman L	+0.7%	Played
Ondrej Palat L	+0.5%	Played
Brayden Schenn C	+0.5%	Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (5.69 → 6.08)

12:13 AM 5.69 first run
3:30 AM 5.69 no change
11:18 AM 5.67 -0.02Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Injuries / lineup: Scott Mayfield (NYI) back in -0.00; NYI lineup: Stefen Rosner Oct 8 11:06 AM
12:17 PM 5.67 no change
1:17 PM 5.67 no change
2:18 PM 5.67 no change
3:17 PM 5.67 no change
4:17 PM 5.89 +0.22Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.22
4:43 PM 5.89 no change
5:15 PM 5.89 no change
5:17 PM 5.89 no change
6:17 PM 5.89 no change
6:45 PM 5.89 no change
7:17 PM 6.08 +0.20CHI goalie: Spencer Knight → Arvid Soderblom +0.20; CHI lineup: Jack Bushman Oct 8 7:08 PM; NYI lineup: Stefen Rosner Oct 8 7:06 PM; Line 5.5 o-125 → 6 o-119

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: CHI projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (CHI 2.62). The 6.08 total looks high, but most of it comes from NYI; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, CHI is bad (1.92) and NYI is great (2.29); on the power play, CHI is bad (0.52) and NYI is bad (0.50). CHI faces Ilya Sorokin, a Strong goalie, grade 92 (-8.0%); NYI faces Arvid Soderblom, a Trash goalie, grade 4 (+3.4%). Other factors: CHI's team speed costs 2.8%; NYI's team speed adds 3.0%. CHI 2.62: 0.50 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Holding it back: Ilya Sorokin in goal -0.24 (a Strong goalie, grade 92, -8.0%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.12 (its attack ranks #30 of 32, NYI's defense #28); team speed -0.08 (it skates slower than NYI, -2.8%); power play -0.05 (its power play ranks #29, NYI's penalty kill and penalty habits #27); injuries -0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.1%). NYI 3.46: 0.34 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.25 (its attack ranks #19 of 32, CHI's defense #32); Arvid Soderblom in goal +0.11 (a Trash goalie, grade 4, +3.4%); team speed +0.10 (it skates faster than CHI, +3.0%). Holding it back: power play -0.07 (its power play ranks #21, CHI's penalty kill and penalty habits #7); injuries -0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.3%). The model projects 6.08 total goals against a 6 line, with a 43% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 5.5 to 6, toward the over. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (CHI 1, NYI 4), so it stayed under 6 and the call was right.

7:00 PM ETAVOID

U 6 ✓ under

MIN#10 OFF / #8 DEF22.90●

J. Wallstedt ✓ Mid 47

TBL#7 OFF / #6 DEF33.15●

D. Hildeby ✓ Mid 48

5 goals · proj 6.05 · P(7+) 45%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
MIN	1.80	0.64	-2.1%	0.51	–	-0.7%	+1.1%
TBL	2.16	0.51	-2.0%	0.51	–	+0.6%	+0.8%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
MIN	1.96#18 of 32	1.88#4 of 32	1.80goals
TBL	2.26#4 of 32	1.95#9 of 32	2.16goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
MIN	0.66#4 of 32	0.53#9 of 32	0.64goals
TBL	0.53#20 of 32	0.53#8 of 32	0.51goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
MIN
Kirill Kaprizov L	-5.4%	Played
Matt Boldy L	-4.3%	Played
Quinn Hughes D	-2.5%	Played
Joel Eriksson Ek C	-2.4%	Played
Ryan Hartman R	-0.8%	Played
TBL
Nikita Kucherov R	-7.3%	Played
Jake Guentzel C	-5.2%	Played
Brandon Hagel L	-5.1%	Played
Brayden Point C	-3.3%	Played
Anthony Cirelli C	-2.8%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
MIN
Quinn Hughes D	+1.8%	Played
Kirill Kaprizov L	+1.5%	Played
Jared Spurgeon D	+1.0%	Played
Matt Boldy L	+1.0%	Played
Bobby Brink R	+0.9%	Played
TBL
Gage Goncalves C	+1.2%	Played
Pontus Holmberg R	+1.1%	Played
Nikita Kucherov R	+1.0%	Played
Jake Guentzel C	+0.9%	Played
Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	+0.8%	Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (5.84 → 6.05)

12:13 AM 5.84 first run
3:30 AM 5.66 -0.18TBL goalie: Dennis Hildeby → Andrei Vasilevskiy -0.17; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01
11:18 AM 5.83 +0.17TBL goalie: Andrei Vasilevskiy → Dennis Hildeby +0.17
12:17 PM 5.83 MIN goalie Jesper Wallstedt: Likely → Confirmed; Nick Foligno (MIN) off day-to-day; MIN lineup: Michael Russo Oct 8 12:14 PM; Line 6 o-115 → 6 o-118
1:17 PM 5.83 no change
2:18 PM 5.83 no change
3:17 PM 5.83 no change
4:17 PM 6.05 +0.22Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.22; Line 6 o-118 → 6 o-120
4:43 PM 6.05 no change
5:15 PM 6.05 no change
5:17 PM 6.05 no change
6:17 PM 6.05 no change
6:45 PM 6.05 TBL lineup: Banjamin Pierce Oct 8 6:36 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: MIN projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (MIN 2.90). The 6.05 total looks high, but most of it comes from TBL; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, MIN is trash (1.80) and TBL is good (2.16); on the power play, MIN is good (0.64) and TBL is bad (0.51). MIN faces Dennis Hildeby, a Mid goalie, grade 48 (-2.1%); TBL faces Jesper Wallstedt, a Mid goalie, grade 47 (-2.0%). MIN 2.90: 0.22 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: power play +0.06 (its power play ranks #4, TBL's penalty kill and penalty habits #9); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.1%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.24 (its attack ranks #18 of 32, TBL's defense #4); Dennis Hildeby in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 48, -2.1%); team speed -0.02 (it skates slower than TBL, -0.7%). TBL 3.15: 0.03 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.11 (its attack ranks #4 of 32, MIN's defense #9); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.8%); team speed +0.02 (it skates faster than MIN, +0.6%). Holding it back: power play -0.06 (its power play ranks #20, MIN's penalty kill and penalty habits #8); Jesper Wallstedt in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 47, -2.0%). The model projects 6.05 total goals against a 6 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 5.5 to 6, toward the over. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (MIN 2, TBL 3), so it stayed under 6 and the call was right.

7:00 PM ETAVOID

U 5.5 ✓ under

PHI#31 OFF / #26 DEF12.51●

J. Woll ✓ Mid 57

OTT#8 OFF / #7 DEF23.53●

L. Ullmark ✓ Good 68

3 goals · proj 6.04 · P(7+) 42%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
PHI	1.65	0.44	-3.7%	0.51	–	-1.1%	+1.3%
OTT	2.36	0.69	-2.8%	0.51	–	+1.3%	+0.7%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
PHI	1.77#32 of 32	1.90#6 of 32	1.65goals
OTT	2.22#6 of 32	2.17#26 of 32	2.36goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
PHI	0.44#31 of 32	0.55#13 of 32	0.44goals
OTT	0.61#11 of 32	0.62#25 of 32	0.69goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
PHI
Travis Konecny R	-2.0%	Played
Trevor Zegras C	-1.9%	Played
Matvei Michkov R	-1.8%	Played
Owen Tippett R	-1.6%	Played
Tyson Foerster R	-0.7%	Played
OTT
Tim Stützle C	-4.2%	Played
Drake Batherson R	-3.3%	Played
Dylan Cozens C	-2.5%	Played
Shane Pinto C	-1.5%	Played
Claude Giroux R	-1.3%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
PHI
Jamie Drysdale D	+1.1%	Played
Owen Tippett R	+1.0%	Played
Noah Cates L	+0.9%	Played
Matvei Michkov R	+0.9%	Played
Trevor Zegras C	+0.8%	Played
OTT
Jordan Spence D	+2.1%	Played
Drake Batherson R	+1.5%	Played
Dylan Cozens C	+1.4%	Played
Tim Stützle C	+1.2%	Played
Tyler Kleven D	+1.1%	Played

Also out: OTT: Jake Sanderson -1.0% attack, +0.6% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (5.82 → 6.04)

12:13 AM 5.82 first run
3:30 AM 5.91 +0.09PHI goalie: Joseph Woll → Dan Vladar +0.08; Line 5.5 o-127 → 5.5 o-126
11:18 AM 5.81 -0.10PHI goalie: Dan Vladar → Joseph Woll -0.08; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.02; OTT goalie Linus Ullmark: Likely → Confirmed; OTT lineup: Andrew Wilimek Oct 8 11:05 AM; Line 5.5 o-126 → 5.5 o-125
12:17 PM 5.82 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Carl Grundstrom (PHI) out +0.01; PHI goalie Joseph Woll: Likely → Confirmed; PHI lineup: Gabriela Carroll Oct 8 11:52 AM; Line 5.5 o-125 → 5.5 o-115
1:17 PM 5.82 no change
2:18 PM 5.82 no change
3:17 PM 5.82 no change
4:17 PM 6.04 +0.22Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.22
4:43 PM 6.04 no change
5:15 PM 6.04 no change
5:17 PM 6.04 no change
6:17 PM 6.04 no change
6:45 PM 6.04 PHI lineup: Gabriela Carroll Oct 8 6:38 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: PHI projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (PHI 2.51); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. The 6.04 total looks high, but most of it comes from OTT; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, PHI is trash (1.65) and OTT is great (2.36); on the power play, PHI is trash (0.44) and OTT is great (0.69). PHI faces Linus Ullmark, a Good goalie, grade 68 (-3.7%); OTT faces Joseph Woll, a Mid goalie, grade 57 (-2.8%). PHI 2.51: 0.61 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.3%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.39 (its attack ranks #32 of 32, OTT's defense #6); power play -0.13 (its power play ranks #31, OTT's penalty kill and penalty habits #13); Linus Ullmark in goal -0.10 (a Good goalie, grade 68, -3.7%); team speed -0.03 (it skates slower than OTT, -1.1%). OTT 3.53: 0.41 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.32 (its attack ranks #6 of 32, PHI's defense #26); power play +0.12 (its power play ranks #11, PHI's penalty kill and penalty habits #25); team speed +0.04 (it skates faster than PHI, +1.3%); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.7%). Holding it back: Joseph Woll in goal -0.10 (a Mid goalie, grade 57, -2.8%). The model projects 6.04 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 42% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 3 goals (PHI 1, OTT 2), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.

7:00 PM ETAVOID

U 6 ✓ under

DAL#17 OFF / #4 DEF42.91●

J. Oettinger ✓ Mid 59

BUF#13 OFF / #13 DEF03.05●

U. Luukkonen ✓ OK 28

4 goals · proj 5.95 · P(7+) 45%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
DAL	2.00	0.59	-0.4%	0.51	–	-4.7%	-1.3%
BUF	2.03	0.48	-2.9%	0.51	–	+4.8%	-0.8%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
DAL	2.05#14 of 32	2.00#15 of 32	2.00goals
BUF	2.20#8 of 32	1.88#5 of 32	2.03goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
DAL	0.63#9 of 32	0.51#5 of 32	0.59goals
BUF	0.48#28 of 32	0.55#14 of 32	0.48goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
DAL
Jason Robertson L	-5.0%	Played
Wyatt Johnston C	-4.5%	Played
Mikko Rantanen R	-3.7%	Played
Roope Hintz C	-2.3%	Played
Matt Duchene C	-1.7%	Didn't play
BUF
Tage Thompson C	-4.7%	Played
Rasmus Dahlin D	-2.4%	Played
Josh Doan R	-1.9%	Played
Jack Quinn R	-1.9%	Played
Jason Zucker L	-1.8%	Didn't play

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
DAL
Jason Robertson L	+1.4%	Played
Miro Heiskanen D	+1.2%	Played
Mikko Rantanen R	+1.0%	Played
Thomas Harley D	+1.0%	Played
Nils Lundkvist D	+0.8%	Played
BUF
Rasmus Dahlin D	+1.3%	Played
Josh Doan R	+1.1%	Played
Noah Ostlund C	+1.0%	Played
Zach Benson L	+0.9%	Played
Tage Thompson C	+0.8%	Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (5.71 → 5.95)

12:13 AM 5.71 first run
3:30 AM 5.75 +0.04DAL goalie: Casey DeSmith → Jake Oettinger +0.04; Line 6 o-118 → 6 o-115
11:18 AM 5.74 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; BUF goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: Likely → Confirmed
12:17 PM 5.74 no change
1:17 PM 5.74 DAL goalie Jake Oettinger: Likely → Confirmed
2:18 PM 5.74 no change
3:17 PM 5.74 DAL lineup: Robert Tiffin Oct 8 1:35 PM
4:17 PM 5.95 +0.22Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.22
4:43 PM 5.95 no change
5:15 PM 5.95 no change
5:17 PM 5.95 no change
6:17 PM 5.95 no change
6:45 PM 5.95 BUF lineup: Heather Engel Oct 8 6:44 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: DAL and BUF project under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (DAL 2.91, BUF 3.05). At 5-on-5, DAL is mid (2.00) and BUF is mid (2.03); on the power play, DAL is mid (0.59) and BUF is bad (0.48). DAL faces Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, an OK goalie, grade 28 (-0.4%); BUF faces Jake Oettinger, a Mid goalie, grade 59 (-2.9%). Other factors: DAL's team speed costs 4.7%; BUF's team speed adds 4.8%. DAL 2.91: 0.22 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: power play +0.02 (its power play ranks #9, BUF's penalty kill and penalty habits #5). Holding it back: team speed -0.15 (it skates slower than BUF, -4.7%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.04 (its attack ranks #14 of 32, BUF's defense #15); injuries -0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.3%); Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in goal -0.01 (an OK goalie, grade 28, -0.4%). BUF 3.05: 0.08 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: team speed +0.14 (it skates faster than DAL, +4.8%). Holding it back: power play -0.09 (its power play ranks #28, DAL's penalty kill and penalty habits #14); Jake Oettinger in goal -0.09 (a Mid goalie, grade 59, -2.9%); injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.8%). The model projects 5.95 total goals against a 6 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 4 goals (DAL 4, BUF 0), so it stayed under 6 and the call was right.

8:00 PM ETAVOID

U 5.5 ✓ under

SJS#27 OFF / #30 DEF32.69●

A. Nedeljkovic ✓ Trash 16

STL#30 OFF / #14 DEF23.22●

J. Hofer ✓ Good 64

5 goals · proj 5.92 · P(7+) 43%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
SJS	1.80	0.59	-3.4%	0.51	–	-0.3%	-3.5%
STL	2.05	0.54	+1.1%	0.51	–	–	+2.7%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
SJS	1.85#29 of 32	1.98#13 of 32	1.80goals
STL	1.93#22 of 32	2.17#25 of 32	2.05goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
SJS	0.58#16 of 32	0.56#17 of 32	0.59goals
STL	0.41#32 of 32	0.72#32 of 32	0.54goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
SJS
Macklin Celebrini C	-4.6%	Didn't play
Will Smith C	-2.1%	Played
Tyler Toffoli C	-2.0%	Played
Alexander Wennberg C	-0.9%	Played
Kiefer Sherwood L	-0.8%	Played
STL
Robert Thomas C	-2.6%	Played
Jimmy Snuggerud R	-1.8%	Played
Dylan Holloway L	-1.7%	Played
Pavel Buchnevich L	-1.3%	Played
Jake Neighbours L	-0.9%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
SJS
Macklin Celebrini C	+0.8%	Didn't play
Tyler Toffoli C	+0.7%	Played
Dmitry Orlov D	+0.6%	Played
Will Smith C	+0.6%	Played
Adam Gaudette R	+0.4%	Didn't play
STL
Dylan Holloway L	+0.8%	Played
Cam Fowler D	+0.7%	Played
Dalibor Dvorsky R	+0.7%	Played
Jake Neighbours L	+0.7%	Played
Jimmy Snuggerud R	+0.7%	Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (5.79 → 5.92)

12:13 AM 5.79 first run
3:30 AM 5.79 Line 5.5 o-123 → 5.5 o-125
11:18 AM 5.77 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 5.5 o-125 → 5.5 o-126
12:17 PM 5.77 STL goalie Joel Hofer: Likely → Confirmed; STL lineup: Matthew DeFranks Oct 8 12:13 PM; Line 5.5 o-126 → 5.5 o-129
1:17 PM 5.70 -0.08SJS goalie: Yaroslav Askarov → Alex Nedeljkovic -0.07; Injuries / lineup: Sam Dickinson (SJS) back in -0.01; Line 5.5 o-129 → 6 o-117
2:18 PM 5.70 no change
3:17 PM 5.70 Line 6 o-117 → 5.5 o-132
4:17 PM 5.92 +0.22Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.22; Line 5.5 o-132 → 5.5 o-131
4:43 PM 5.92 no change
5:15 PM 5.92 no change
5:17 PM 5.92 no change
6:17 PM 5.92 Line 5.5 o-131 → 5.5 o-128
6:45 PM 5.92 no change
7:17 PM 5.92 no change
7:45 PM 5.92 SJS lineup: Sheng Peng Oct 8 7:35 PM; STL lineup: Lou Korac Oct 8 7:35 PM; Line 5.5 o-128 → 5.5 o-125

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: SJS projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (SJS 2.69); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, SJS is trash (1.80) and STL is good (2.05); on the power play, SJS is mid (0.59) and STL is mid (0.54). SJS faces Joel Hofer, a Good goalie, grade 64 (-3.4%); STL faces Alex Nedeljkovic, a Trash goalie, grade 16 (+1.1%). Other factors: injuries cost SJS 3.5%; injuries help STL 2.7%. SJS 2.69: 0.43 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: power play +0.02 (its power play ranks #16, STL's penalty kill and penalty habits #17). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.25 (its attack ranks #29 of 32, STL's defense #13); Joel Hofer in goal -0.10 (a Good goalie, grade 64, -3.4%); injuries -0.10 (missing players on both teams, net, -3.5%). STL 3.22: 0.10 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: injuries +0.09 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.7%); Alex Nedeljkovic in goal +0.03 (a Trash goalie, grade 16, +1.1%). Holding it back: power play -0.03 (its power play ranks #32, SJS's penalty kill and penalty habits #32). The model projects 5.92 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 43% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (SJS 3, STL 2), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.