Sunday, October 11, 2026

3 games · 0 flags · 2 of 3 went over the line · avg 7.0 goals (projected 6.3) · calls: SLAM – · 1U – · PASS – · AVOID 1 of 3 stayed under

Breakdown (for scoring):greatgoodmidbadtrash
TeamResultGoaliesProjection breakdown
TeamGProjTotal goalsProj totalP(7+)LinePickGoalie5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
SEA#27 OFF / #25 DEF53.08●8O 6.56.5250%6.5 → 6.55:00 PM ET
AVOID near miss −0.01 was SLAM
✗ went over		J. Daccord ✓ OK 392.210.65-8.5%0.51–-2.4%+2.5%
WSH#11 OFF / #18 DEF33.43●L. Thompson ✓ Strong 942.400.47-1.4%0.49–+2.4%+0.8%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
SEA2.10#13 of 322.15#24 of 322.21goals0.51#25 of 320.71#31 of 320.65goals
WSH2.25#5 of 322.18#27 of 322.40goals0.52#24 of 320.51#6 of 320.47goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?PlayerIf outPlayed?
SEAJordan Eberle R-2.0%PlayedJordan Eberle R+0.9%Played
Jared McCann L-1.8%PlayedShane Wright C+0.8%Played
Bobby McMann C-1.5%PlayedMatty Beniers C+0.7%Played
Matty Beniers C-1.1%PlayedRyker Evans D+0.7%Played
Shane Wright C-0.9%PlayedBrandon Montour D+0.6%Played
WSHAlex Ovechkin L-3.6%PlayedJakob Chychrun D+1.2%Played
Tom Wilson R-3.3%PlayedJustin Sourdif C+0.7%Played
Dylan Strome C-2.6%PlayedRasmus Sandin D+0.7%Didn't play
Jakob Chychrun D-2.6%PlayedDylan Strome C+0.5%Played
Aliaksei Protas L-1.7%PlayedRyan Leonard R+0.5%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.50 → 6.52)
  • 12:08 AM 6.50 first run
  • 1:59 AM 6.50 no change
  • 11:18 AM 6.49 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o-100
  • 12:17 PM 6.49 no change
  • 1:17 PM 6.49 no change
  • 2:17 PM 6.49 Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o-105
  • 3:17 PM 6.53 +0.04Injuries / lineup: Matt Roy (WSH) out +0.04; WSH goalie Logan Thompson: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-105 → 6.5 o-104
  • 3:36 PM 6.53 Line 6.5 o-104 → 6.5 o-102
  • 4:17 PM 6.53 no change
  • 4:45 PM 6.52 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Pierre-Luc Dubois (WSH) out, Ethen Frank (WSH) back in -0.01; SEA goalie Joey Daccord: Likely → Confirmed; WSH lineup: Sammi Silber Oct 11 4:38 PM; Line 6.5 o-102 → 6.5 o-100

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: SEA projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (SEA 3.08). SEA just misses the cutoff (by 0.01), and the rule needs both teams over it, so the 6.52 total isn't enough on its own. At 5-on-5, SEA is great (2.21) and WSH is great (2.40); on the power play, SEA is great (0.65) and WSH is bad (0.47). SEA faces Logan Thompson, a Strong goalie, grade 94 (-8.5%); WSH faces Joey Daccord, an OK goalie, grade 39 (-1.4%). Other factors: SEA's team speed costs 2.4%; injuries help SEA 2.5%; WSH's team speed adds 2.4%. SEA 3.08: 0.02 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.18 (its attack ranks #13 of 32, WSH's defense #24); power play +0.08 (its power play ranks #25, WSH's penalty kill and penalty habits #31); injuries +0.08 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.5%). Holding it back: Logan Thompson in goal -0.29 (a Strong goalie, grade 94, -8.5%); team speed -0.07 (it skates slower than WSH, -2.4%). WSH 3.43: 0.33 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.37 (its attack ranks #5 of 32, SEA's defense #27); team speed +0.08 (it skates faster than SEA, +2.4%); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.8%). Holding it back: power play -0.10 (its power play ranks #24, SEA's penalty kill and penalty habits #6); Joey Daccord in goal -0.05 (an OK goalie, grade 39, -1.4%). The model projects 6.52 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 50% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 8 goals (SEA 5, WSH 3), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.
VAN#26 OFF / #32 DEF22.61●8O 6.56.3845%6.5 → 6.56:00 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over		K. Lankinen ✓ Trash 11.840.57-2.3%0.51-8.0%-0.4%–
NYR#19 OFF / #9 DEF63.77●D. Garand ✓ Mid 512.070.79+5.7%0.48+6.5%+0.1%–
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
VAN1.87#25 of 322.01#15 of 321.84goals0.57#18 of 320.55#14 of 320.57goals
NYR1.84#27 of 322.30#31 of 322.07goals0.62#11 of 320.71#29 of 320.79goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?PlayerIf outPlayed?
VANJake DeBrusk L-1.7%PlayedLinus Karlsson C+0.8%Played
Brock Boeser R-1.7%PlayedJake DeBrusk L+0.6%Played
Elias Pettersson C-1.7%PlayedElias Pettersson C+0.5%Played
Marco Rossi C-1.2%PlayedMarco Rossi C+0.5%Played
Linus Karlsson C-1.0%PlayedZeev Buium D+0.4%Played
NYRMika Zibanejad C-3.1%PlayedAlexis Lafrenière L+0.8%Played
Alexis Lafrenière L-2.4%PlayedAdam Fox D+0.7%Played
J.T. Miller C-2.1%PlayedPavel Dorofeyev R+0.5%Played
Adam Fox D-1.8%PlayedGabe Perreault R+0.4%Played
Pavel Dorofeyev R-1.0%PlayedTye Kartye L+0.4%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.29 → 6.38)
  • 12:08 AM 6.29 first run
  • 1:59 AM 6.39 +0.09VAN goalie: Leevi Merilainen → Kevin Lankinen +0.09
  • 11:18 AM 6.38 VAN goalie Kevin Lankinen: Likely → Confirmed; NYR goalie Dylan Garand: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6 o-121 → 6.5 o-105
  • 12:17 PM 6.38 no change
  • 1:17 PM 6.38 no change
  • 2:17 PM 6.38 no change
  • 3:17 PM 6.38 Line 6.5 o-105 → 6.5 o-107
  • 3:36 PM 6.38 no change
  • 4:17 PM 6.38 no change
  • 4:45 PM 6.38 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.38 no change
  • 5:45 PM 6.38 VAN lineup: Thomas Drance Oct 11 5:39 PM; NYR lineup: Peter Baugh Oct 11 5:35 PM; Line 6.5 o-107 → 6.5 o-106

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: VAN projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (VAN 2.61). The 6.38 total looks high, but most of it comes from NYR; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, VAN is bad (1.84) and NYR is good (2.07); on the power play, VAN is mid (0.57) and NYR is great (0.79). VAN faces Dylan Garand, a Mid goalie, grade 51 (-2.3%); NYR faces Kevin Lankinen, a Trash goalie, grade 1 (+5.7%). Other factors: VAN played yesterday (-8%); NYR's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%). VAN 2.61: 0.49 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.23 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.19 (its attack ranks #25 of 32, NYR's defense #15); Dylan Garand in goal -0.07 (a Mid goalie, grade 51, -2.3%); team speed -0.01 (it skates slower than NYR, -0.4%). NYR 3.77: 0.66 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.23 (VAN played yesterday, +6.5%); power play +0.22 (its power play ranks #11, VAN's penalty kill and penalty habits #29); Kevin Lankinen in goal +0.19 (a Trash goalie, grade 1, +5.7%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.04 (its attack ranks #27 of 32, VAN's defense #31). The model projects 6.38 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 8 goals (VAN 2, NYR 6), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.
CAR#1 OFF / #2 DEF43.50●5U 5.55.9541%5.5 → 5.57:00 PM ET
AVOID
✓ under		P. Kochetkov ✓ Mid 432.480.75-2.8%0.50-2.0%+0.3%-1.8%
PHI#31 OFF / #26 DEF12.45●J. Woll ✓ Mid 581.580.43-1.6%0.50-2.0%-0.3%+1.5%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
CAR2.32#2 of 322.18#28 of 322.48goals0.70#3 of 320.59#23 of 320.75goals
PHI1.68#32 of 321.92#8 of 321.58goals0.48#28 of 320.50#3 of 320.43goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?PlayerIf outPlayed?
CARSebastian Aho C-4.4%PlayedJackson Blake R+1.8%Played
Andrei Svechnikov R-3.8%PlayedShayne Gostisbehere D+1.5%Played
Nikolaj Ehlers L-3.1%PlayedNikolaj Ehlers L+1.4%Played
Seth Jarvis C-2.6%Didn't playLogan Stankoven C+1.4%Played
Jackson Blake R-2.5%PlayedSean Walker D+1.4%Played
PHITravis Konecny R-1.9%Didn't playJamie Drysdale D+1.1%Played
Trevor Zegras C-1.9%PlayedOwen Tippett R+1.0%Played
Matvei Michkov R-1.8%PlayedNoah Cates L+0.9%Played
Owen Tippett R-1.6%PlayedMatvei Michkov R+0.9%Played
Tyson Foerster R-0.7%PlayedTrevor Zegras C+0.8%Played

Also out: CAR: Jordan Staal -0.7% attack, +0.3% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.14 → 5.95)
  • 12:08 AM 6.14 first run
  • 1:59 AM 6.01 -0.13PHI goalie: Dan Vladar → Joseph Woll -0.09; CAR goalie: Brandon Bussi → Pyotr Kochetkov -0.05
  • 11:18 AM 5.94 -0.07Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.05; Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated -0.02; Line 5.5 o-121 → 5.5 o-126
  • 12:17 PM 5.94 no change
  • 1:17 PM 5.94 no change
  • 2:17 PM 5.94 no change
  • 3:17 PM 5.94 no change
  • 3:36 PM 5.94 no change
  • 4:17 PM 5.94 no change
  • 4:45 PM 5.94 Line 5.5 o-126 → 5.5 o-124
  • 5:17 PM 5.94 CAR goalie Pyotr Kochetkov: Likely → Confirmed; PHI goalie Joseph Woll: Likely → Confirmed
  • 5:45 PM 5.94 no change
  • 6:17 PM 5.94 no change
  • 6:45 PM 5.95 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Jordan Staal (CAR) out +0.01

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: PHI projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (PHI 2.45); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, CAR is great (2.48) and PHI is trash (1.58); on the power play, CAR is great (0.75) and PHI is trash (0.43). CAR faces Joseph Woll, a Mid goalie, grade 58 (-2.8%); PHI faces Pyotr Kochetkov, a Mid goalie, grade 43 (-1.6%). Other factors: both teams played yesterday (-2% each); injuries cost CAR 1.8%; injuries help PHI 1.5%. CAR 3.50: 0.40 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.45 (its attack ranks #2 of 32, PHI's defense #28); power play +0.18 (its power play ranks #3, PHI's penalty kill and penalty habits #23). Holding it back: Joseph Woll in goal -0.10 (a Mid goalie, grade 58, -2.8%); back-to-back -0.07 (both teams played yesterday, -2.0%); injuries -0.06 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.8%). PHI 2.45: 0.66 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: injuries +0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.5%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.45 (its attack ranks #32 of 32, CAR's defense #8); power play -0.14 (its power play ranks #28, CAR's penalty kill and penalty habits #3); back-to-back -0.05 (both teams played yesterday, -2.0%); Pyotr Kochetkov in goal -0.04 (a Mid goalie, grade 43, -1.6%). The model projects 5.95 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 41% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (CAR 4, PHI 1), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.
5:00 PM ETAVOID near miss −0.01 was SLAM
O 6.5 ✗ went over
SEA#27 OFF / #25 DEF53.08●
J. Daccord ✓ OK 39
WSH#11 OFF / #18 DEF33.43●
L. Thompson ✓ Strong 94
8 goals · proj 6.52 · P(7+) 50%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
SEA2.210.65-8.5%0.51–-2.4%+2.5%
WSH2.400.47-1.4%0.49–+2.4%+0.8%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
SEA2.10#13 of 322.15#24 of 322.21goals
WSH2.25#5 of 322.18#27 of 322.40goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
SEA0.51#25 of 320.71#31 of 320.65goals
WSH0.52#24 of 320.51#6 of 320.47goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPlayed?
SEA
Jordan Eberle R-2.0%Played
Jared McCann L-1.8%Played
Bobby McMann C-1.5%Played
Matty Beniers C-1.1%Played
Shane Wright C-0.9%Played
WSH
Alex Ovechkin L-3.6%Played
Tom Wilson R-3.3%Played
Dylan Strome C-2.6%Played
Jakob Chychrun D-2.6%Played
Aliaksei Protas L-1.7%Played
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?
SEA
Jordan Eberle R+0.9%Played
Shane Wright C+0.8%Played
Matty Beniers C+0.7%Played
Ryker Evans D+0.7%Played
Brandon Montour D+0.6%Played
WSH
Jakob Chychrun D+1.2%Played
Justin Sourdif C+0.7%Played
Rasmus Sandin D+0.7%Didn't play
Dylan Strome C+0.5%Played
Ryan Leonard R+0.5%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.50 → 6.52)
  • 12:08 AM 6.50 first run
  • 1:59 AM 6.50 no change
  • 11:18 AM 6.49 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o-100
  • 12:17 PM 6.49 no change
  • 1:17 PM 6.49 no change
  • 2:17 PM 6.49 Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o-105
  • 3:17 PM 6.53 +0.04Injuries / lineup: Matt Roy (WSH) out +0.04; WSH goalie Logan Thompson: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-105 → 6.5 o-104
  • 3:36 PM 6.53 Line 6.5 o-104 → 6.5 o-102
  • 4:17 PM 6.53 no change
  • 4:45 PM 6.52 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Pierre-Luc Dubois (WSH) out, Ethen Frank (WSH) back in -0.01; SEA goalie Joey Daccord: Likely → Confirmed; WSH lineup: Sammi Silber Oct 11 4:38 PM; Line 6.5 o-102 → 6.5 o-100

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: SEA projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (SEA 3.08). SEA just misses the cutoff (by 0.01), and the rule needs both teams over it, so the 6.52 total isn't enough on its own. At 5-on-5, SEA is great (2.21) and WSH is great (2.40); on the power play, SEA is great (0.65) and WSH is bad (0.47). SEA faces Logan Thompson, a Strong goalie, grade 94 (-8.5%); WSH faces Joey Daccord, an OK goalie, grade 39 (-1.4%). Other factors: SEA's team speed costs 2.4%; injuries help SEA 2.5%; WSH's team speed adds 2.4%. SEA 3.08: 0.02 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.18 (its attack ranks #13 of 32, WSH's defense #24); power play +0.08 (its power play ranks #25, WSH's penalty kill and penalty habits #31); injuries +0.08 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.5%). Holding it back: Logan Thompson in goal -0.29 (a Strong goalie, grade 94, -8.5%); team speed -0.07 (it skates slower than WSH, -2.4%). WSH 3.43: 0.33 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.37 (its attack ranks #5 of 32, SEA's defense #27); team speed +0.08 (it skates faster than SEA, +2.4%); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.8%). Holding it back: power play -0.10 (its power play ranks #24, SEA's penalty kill and penalty habits #6); Joey Daccord in goal -0.05 (an OK goalie, grade 39, -1.4%). The model projects 6.52 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 50% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 8 goals (SEA 5, WSH 3), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.
6:00 PM ETAVOID
O 6.5 ✗ went over
VAN#26 OFF / #32 DEF22.61●
K. Lankinen ✓ Trash 1
NYR#19 OFF / #9 DEF63.77●
D. Garand ✓ Mid 51
8 goals · proj 6.38 · P(7+) 45%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
VAN1.840.57-2.3%0.51-8.0%-0.4%–
NYR2.070.79+5.7%0.48+6.5%+0.1%–
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
VAN1.87#25 of 322.01#15 of 321.84goals
NYR1.84#27 of 322.30#31 of 322.07goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
VAN0.57#18 of 320.55#14 of 320.57goals
NYR0.62#11 of 320.71#29 of 320.79goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPlayed?
VAN
Jake DeBrusk L-1.7%Played
Brock Boeser R-1.7%Played
Elias Pettersson C-1.7%Played
Marco Rossi C-1.2%Played
Linus Karlsson C-1.0%Played
NYR
Mika Zibanejad C-3.1%Played
Alexis Lafrenière L-2.4%Played
J.T. Miller C-2.1%Played
Adam Fox D-1.8%Played
Pavel Dorofeyev R-1.0%Played
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?
VAN
Linus Karlsson C+0.8%Played
Jake DeBrusk L+0.6%Played
Elias Pettersson C+0.5%Played
Marco Rossi C+0.5%Played
Zeev Buium D+0.4%Played
NYR
Alexis Lafrenière L+0.8%Played
Adam Fox D+0.7%Played
Pavel Dorofeyev R+0.5%Played
Gabe Perreault R+0.4%Played
Tye Kartye L+0.4%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.29 → 6.38)
  • 12:08 AM 6.29 first run
  • 1:59 AM 6.39 +0.09VAN goalie: Leevi Merilainen → Kevin Lankinen +0.09
  • 11:18 AM 6.38 VAN goalie Kevin Lankinen: Likely → Confirmed; NYR goalie Dylan Garand: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6 o-121 → 6.5 o-105
  • 12:17 PM 6.38 no change
  • 1:17 PM 6.38 no change
  • 2:17 PM 6.38 no change
  • 3:17 PM 6.38 Line 6.5 o-105 → 6.5 o-107
  • 3:36 PM 6.38 no change
  • 4:17 PM 6.38 no change
  • 4:45 PM 6.38 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.38 no change
  • 5:45 PM 6.38 VAN lineup: Thomas Drance Oct 11 5:39 PM; NYR lineup: Peter Baugh Oct 11 5:35 PM; Line 6.5 o-107 → 6.5 o-106

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: VAN projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (VAN 2.61). The 6.38 total looks high, but most of it comes from NYR; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, VAN is bad (1.84) and NYR is good (2.07); on the power play, VAN is mid (0.57) and NYR is great (0.79). VAN faces Dylan Garand, a Mid goalie, grade 51 (-2.3%); NYR faces Kevin Lankinen, a Trash goalie, grade 1 (+5.7%). Other factors: VAN played yesterday (-8%); NYR's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%). VAN 2.61: 0.49 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.23 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.19 (its attack ranks #25 of 32, NYR's defense #15); Dylan Garand in goal -0.07 (a Mid goalie, grade 51, -2.3%); team speed -0.01 (it skates slower than NYR, -0.4%). NYR 3.77: 0.66 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.23 (VAN played yesterday, +6.5%); power play +0.22 (its power play ranks #11, VAN's penalty kill and penalty habits #29); Kevin Lankinen in goal +0.19 (a Trash goalie, grade 1, +5.7%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.04 (its attack ranks #27 of 32, VAN's defense #31). The model projects 6.38 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 8 goals (VAN 2, NYR 6), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.
7:00 PM ETAVOID
U 5.5 ✓ under
CAR#1 OFF / #2 DEF43.50●
P. Kochetkov ✓ Mid 43
PHI#31 OFF / #26 DEF12.45●
J. Woll ✓ Mid 58
5 goals · proj 5.95 · P(7+) 41%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
CAR2.480.75-2.8%0.50-2.0%+0.3%-1.8%
PHI1.580.43-1.6%0.50-2.0%-0.3%+1.5%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
CAR2.32#2 of 322.18#28 of 322.48goals
PHI1.68#32 of 321.92#8 of 321.58goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
CAR0.70#3 of 320.59#23 of 320.75goals
PHI0.48#28 of 320.50#3 of 320.43goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPlayed?
CAR
Sebastian Aho C-4.4%Played
Andrei Svechnikov R-3.8%Played
Nikolaj Ehlers L-3.1%Played
Seth Jarvis C-2.6%Didn't play
Jackson Blake R-2.5%Played
PHI
Travis Konecny R-1.9%Didn't play
Trevor Zegras C-1.9%Played
Matvei Michkov R-1.8%Played
Owen Tippett R-1.6%Played
Tyson Foerster R-0.7%Played
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?
CAR
Jackson Blake R+1.8%Played
Shayne Gostisbehere D+1.5%Played
Nikolaj Ehlers L+1.4%Played
Logan Stankoven C+1.4%Played
Sean Walker D+1.4%Played
PHI
Jamie Drysdale D+1.1%Played
Owen Tippett R+1.0%Played
Noah Cates L+0.9%Played
Matvei Michkov R+0.9%Played
Trevor Zegras C+0.8%Played

Also out: CAR: Jordan Staal -0.7% attack, +0.3% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.14 → 5.95)
  • 12:08 AM 6.14 first run
  • 1:59 AM 6.01 -0.13PHI goalie: Dan Vladar → Joseph Woll -0.09; CAR goalie: Brandon Bussi → Pyotr Kochetkov -0.05
  • 11:18 AM 5.94 -0.07Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.05; Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated -0.02; Line 5.5 o-121 → 5.5 o-126
  • 12:17 PM 5.94 no change
  • 1:17 PM 5.94 no change
  • 2:17 PM 5.94 no change
  • 3:17 PM 5.94 no change
  • 3:36 PM 5.94 no change
  • 4:17 PM 5.94 no change
  • 4:45 PM 5.94 Line 5.5 o-126 → 5.5 o-124
  • 5:17 PM 5.94 CAR goalie Pyotr Kochetkov: Likely → Confirmed; PHI goalie Joseph Woll: Likely → Confirmed
  • 5:45 PM 5.94 no change
  • 6:17 PM 5.94 no change
  • 6:45 PM 5.95 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Jordan Staal (CAR) out +0.01

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: PHI projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (PHI 2.45); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, CAR is great (2.48) and PHI is trash (1.58); on the power play, CAR is great (0.75) and PHI is trash (0.43). CAR faces Joseph Woll, a Mid goalie, grade 58 (-2.8%); PHI faces Pyotr Kochetkov, a Mid goalie, grade 43 (-1.6%). Other factors: both teams played yesterday (-2% each); injuries cost CAR 1.8%; injuries help PHI 1.5%. CAR 3.50: 0.40 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.45 (its attack ranks #2 of 32, PHI's defense #28); power play +0.18 (its power play ranks #3, PHI's penalty kill and penalty habits #23). Holding it back: Joseph Woll in goal -0.10 (a Mid goalie, grade 58, -2.8%); back-to-back -0.07 (both teams played yesterday, -2.0%); injuries -0.06 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.8%). PHI 2.45: 0.66 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: injuries +0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.5%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.45 (its attack ranks #32 of 32, CAR's defense #8); power play -0.14 (its power play ranks #28, CAR's penalty kill and penalty habits #3); back-to-back -0.05 (both teams played yesterday, -2.0%); Pyotr Kochetkov in goal -0.04 (a Mid goalie, grade 43, -1.6%). The model projects 5.95 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 41% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (CAR 4, PHI 1), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.

Two rows per game (away, then home). ● = team projected high-scoring. Proj = (5v5 + PP + Oth) × goalie (Gl) × back-to-back (B2B) × team speed (Spd) × injuries (Inj). Hover or tap any underlined label for an explanation.