Team rankings

Last model runThu, Oct 29 · 6:20 PM EDT

Total Offense

#TeamTotalModelAdj #GoalsxGSOGAttHDHD xGPPGRebReb GSched
1▸CAR+1.783.62 #2#13.58 #33.71 #132.1 #166.7 #13.5 #21.17 #30.69 #73.9 #20.29 #25#32 +5.0%
2▸MIN+1.403.29 #9#23.18 #123.63 #229.9 #460.7 #63.8 #11.33 #10.74 #44.2 #10.39 #13#24 +1.5%
3▸COL+1.143.85 #1#2 ↑13.78 #13.42 #431.1 #264.3 #23.0 #141.04 #100.49 #253.4 #200.49 #5#7 -2.4%
4▸TBL+1.043.48 #4#43.40 #63.53 #329.1 #661.0 #53.4 #31.22 #20.55 #183.7 #50.45 #10#17 +0.2%
5▸UTA+0.823.53 #3#53.40 #63.32 #828.9 #762.3 #42.9 #190.95 #220.85 #13.6 #90.47 #7#19 +0.5%
6▸VGK+0.683.31 #7#9 ↓33.37 #83.35 #729.2 #559.7 #93.0 #150.99 #160.67 #83.8 #40.55 #2#29 +3.7%
7▸EDM+0.613.46 #5#10 ↓33.74 #23.17 #1627.7 #1457.0 #203.1 #120.97 #190.80 #33.6 #130.31 #23#30 +3.9%
8▸WSH+0.553.43 #6#6 ↑23.32 #103.41 #527.9 #1257.3 #183.3 #41.13 #40.52 #213.6 #100.47 #6#5 -2.8%
9▸NJD+0.523.14 #16#7 ↑23.07 #173.36 #630.7 #363.9 #32.9 #181.00 #150.50 #233.8 #30.37 #16#15 -0.8%
10▸PIT+0.463.31 #8#8 ↑23.33 #93.31 #928.1 #1158.5 #143.2 #51.08 #80.58 #143.7 #80.31 #24#12 -1.4%
11▸FLA+0.373.26 #11#12 ↓13.01 #193.24 #1128.1 #1060.7 #72.9 #200.96 #210.82 #23.7 #70.52 #3#28 +3.3%
12▸ANA+0.243.21 #14#14 ↓23.14 #143.21 #1327.0 #2259.1 #123.1 #91.08 #70.60 #123.7 #60.45 #11#23 +1.2%
13▸OTT+0.163.25 #12#133.07 #163.23 #1227.1 #2057.3 #173.2 #81.11 #50.61 #113.1 #240.36 #20#16 -0.0%
14▸NSH+0.112.93 #24#11 ↑32.92 #213.11 #1826.8 #2556.8 #213.1 #111.10 #60.74 #43.5 #160.59 #1#8 -2.2%
15▸BOS+0.053.28 #10#153.47 #43.12 #1726.4 #2755.4 #242.8 #210.98 #170.63 #103.1 #250.46 #9#13 -1.2%
16▸MTL-0.013.19 #15#163.16 #133.26 #1027.3 #1858.6 #133.0 #161.04 #110.41 #302.9 #280.31 #22#25 +1.7%
17▸DET-0.043.06 #20#20 ↓32.80 #273.18 #1428.8 #860.4 #82.7 #250.96 #200.59 #133.4 #210.49 #4#31 +4.5%
18▸BUF-0.093.22 #13#17 ↑13.07 #153.18 #1527.8 #1357.6 #153.1 #101.02 #140.46 #273.2 #230.24 #30#21 +0.9%
19▸TOR-0.143.11 #17#18 ↑13.40 #53.02 #2527.5 #1754.2 #282.5 #310.83 #320.74 #63.5 #150.46 #8#20 +0.6%
20▸NYR-0.253.04 #21#21 ↓13.04 #183.10 #1925.4 #2955.2 #253.2 #61.05 #90.58 #152.9 #320.36 #19#22 +1.0%
21▸SJS-0.272.88 #27#19 ↑22.92 #223.03 #2327.0 #2155.5 #233.1 #131.02 #130.66 #92.9 #310.25 #29#10 -1.7%
22▸DAL-0.322.99 #22#222.99 #203.10 #2026.5 #2654.8 #273.0 #170.98 #180.54 #203.5 #170.42 #12#18 +0.2%
23▸CBJ-0.492.95 #23#232.82 #263.02 #2427.6 #1557.2 #193.2 #71.03 #120.35 #323.2 #220.28 #26#9 -1.8%
24▸NYI-0.493.10 #18#26 ↓22.90 #243.06 #2127.2 #1957.4 #162.7 #270.90 #270.49 #263.4 #190.39 #14#27 +1.8%
25▸WPG-0.642.90 #26#24 ↑12.64 #293.03 #2226.9 #2456.6 #222.8 #230.95 #230.51 #223.6 #110.38 #15#3 -3.4%
26▸STL-0.652.92 #25#25 ↑12.91 #232.94 #2727.0 #2355.1 #262.8 #220.92 #240.49 #243.6 #120.28 #27#4 -2.9%
27▸LAK-0.742.79 #29#272.70 #282.94 #2627.6 #1659.6 #102.7 #260.88 #280.45 #293.4 #180.19 #32#14 -0.9%
28▸CGY-0.742.68 #32#29 ↓12.55 #302.89 #2828.4 #959.6 #112.5 #300.85 #290.57 #173.5 #140.26 #28#26 +1.7%
29▸SEA-0.793.10 #19#28 ↑13.24 #112.86 #2925.9 #2852.9 #292.4 #320.83 #310.55 #192.9 #300.36 #18#11 -1.6%
30▸VAN-1.242.84 #28#302.90 #252.72 #3223.8 #3251.8 #312.6 #290.83 #300.58 #152.9 #290.36 #17#1 -4.8%
31▸PHI-1.382.68 #31#312.46 #322.78 #3124.8 #3052.7 #302.7 #240.91 #250.46 #283.0 #260.34 #21#6 -2.8%
32▸CHI-1.652.71 #30#322.48 #312.80 #3024.0 #3150.7 #322.6 #280.90 #260.37 #313.0 #270.20 #31#2 -3.8%

Total Defense (stats allowed)

#TeamTotalModelAdj #GoalsxGSOGAttHDHD xGPPGRebReb GSched
1▸CAR+1.682.87 #3#2 ↓12.66 #42.72 #123.6 #148.8 #12.5 #20.84 #30.55 #133.3 #140.33 #11#32 -5.3%
2▸DAL+1.532.98 #8#1 ↑12.46 #12.83 #424.7 #254.2 #52.6 #50.90 #70.38 #12.8 #20.29 #7#18 -0.3%
3▸MIN+1.052.99 #9#32.59 #22.90 #627.1 #1157.4 #132.5 #10.81 #10.47 #73.0 #50.36 #14#23 -0.8%
4▸VGK+0.942.77 #1#42.89 #72.77 #225.3 #354.9 #72.7 #90.88 #60.59 #203.2 #130.37 #16#28 -2.4%
5▸COL+0.802.86 #2#6 ↓12.87 #62.86 #527.3 #1356.4 #92.6 #40.84 #20.53 #113.7 #230.19 #1#26 -1.9%
6▸NJD+0.722.90 #5#5 ↑13.01 #102.82 #326.4 #854.2 #42.7 #100.91 #80.55 #143.1 #80.42 #25#19 -0.4%
7▸TBL+0.653.00 #10#72.97 #82.97 #1026.0 #753.7 #32.9 #140.97 #130.57 #163.2 #120.26 #5#15 +0.2%
8▸OTT+0.642.89 #4#9 ↓12.97 #92.91 #725.9 #655.8 #82.6 #60.91 #90.63 #233.4 #180.39 #18#29 -2.4%
9▸UTA+0.582.95 #7#8 ↑13.13 #192.91 #825.5 #454.6 #62.5 #30.87 #40.76 #303.1 #60.39 #20#11 +1.1%
10▸FLA+0.393.03 #11#103.07 #163.10 #1425.8 #552.9 #23.2 #251.09 #250.54 #122.9 #30.28 #6#25 -1.6%
11▸DET+0.363.06 #12#14 ↓33.01 #113.04 #1126.8 #958.0 #172.6 #70.87 #50.78 #312.7 #10.26 #4#31 -4.4%
12▸BOS+0.173.26 #20#13 ↓12.63 #33.23 #1728.6 #2559.9 #263.1 #231.00 #170.62 #213.7 #240.20 #2#14 +0.5%
13▸STL+0.163.10 #15#11 ↑23.09 #173.06 #1227.8 #1756.4 #102.9 #151.04 #220.43 #43.1 #90.46 #27#8 +1.7%
14▸NYR+0.153.09 #14#12 ↑23.03 #133.16 #1527.4 #1458.3 #182.8 #111.00 #160.43 #33.6 #220.45 #26#13 +1.0%
15▸EDM+0.112.90 #5#16 ↓13.20 #252.96 #927.0 #1057.0 #122.8 #120.95 #120.66 #243.4 #200.55 #30#17 -0.1%
16▸LAK+0.043.07 #13#15 ↑13.13 #203.07 #1327.9 #1858.4 #192.7 #80.93 #100.74 #293.3 #150.33 #10#10 +1.2%
17▸NYI-0.043.26 #21#19 ↓22.78 #53.36 #2727.1 #1257.4 #153.5 #311.18 #300.48 #83.7 #250.32 #9#27 -2.2%
18▸BUF-0.133.11 #16#21 ↓33.14 #213.22 #1627.6 #1657.0 #113.1 #221.02 #200.67 #253.2 #110.34 #12#24 -1.0%
19▸WPG-0.213.26 #23#18 ↑13.06 #153.24 #1828.2 #2258.9 #203.1 #241.05 #230.57 #173.4 #170.39 #18#4 +2.5%
20▸NSH-0.223.31 #26#203.11 #183.29 #2129.1 #2659.8 #252.9 #160.98 #140.47 #63.1 #100.40 #22#7 +1.8%
21▸PHI-0.273.28 #24#17 ↑43.15 #223.26 #1928.3 #2359.7 #233.0 #191.02 #180.57 #193.4 #190.37 #15#2 +4.7%
22▸MTL-0.283.22 #19#23 ↓13.04 #143.34 #2528.0 #2057.4 #143.3 #271.14 #270.57 #174.2 #320.22 #3#21 -0.6%
23▸WSH-0.293.30 #25#22 ↑13.02 #123.35 #2628.1 #2161.3 #293.1 #211.06 #240.57 #153.1 #70.36 #13#5 +2.3%
24▸PIT-0.353.19 #18#243.18 #243.31 #2327.6 #1557.8 #163.5 #291.16 #290.46 #53.0 #40.41 #23#22 -0.7%
25▸CGY-0.533.38 #27#253.39 #293.26 #2029.8 #2860.6 #272.8 #130.94 #110.51 #94.0 #280.32 #8#3 +2.8%
26▸CBJ-0.673.19 #17#263.16 #233.30 #2228.3 #2459.7 #223.5 #301.18 #310.71 #273.8 #260.39 #21#9 +1.3%
27▸CHI-0.693.46 #30#273.42 #303.37 #2829.7 #2759.3 #213.0 #170.99 #150.52 #104.0 #300.41 #24#12 +1.1%
28▸TOR-0.813.38 #27#283.38 #273.39 #2930.2 #3162.5 #303.0 #181.04 #210.39 #23.4 #160.55 #31#16 -0.1%
29▸SEA-0.943.26 #21#293.31 #263.33 #2429.9 #2964.4 #323.0 #201.02 #190.74 #283.8 #270.47 #28#6 +2.0%
30▸ANA-0.963.39 #29#303.46 #313.46 #3028.0 #1959.7 #243.4 #281.14 #280.70 #263.6 #210.38 #17#30 -2.9%
31▸SJS-1.243.55 #31#313.39 #283.59 #3130.0 #3062.8 #313.2 #261.10 #260.62 #224.1 #310.54 #29#20 -0.5%
32▸VAN-2.303.69 #32#324.09 #323.69 #3231.0 #3261.1 #283.6 #321.20 #320.88 #324.0 #290.63 #32#1 +5.8%
  • Total = the nine stats combined, each weighted by how well it predicted a team's future goals in 2021-26 (half a season vs the other half, 320 team-halves). Offense: Goals 21%, xG 21%, SOG 13%, PPG 12%, Att 12%, HD xG 10%, HD 8%, Reb G 3%, Reb 1%. Defense: Goals 26%, xG 19%, SOG 14%, Att 12%, HD xG 9%, HD 7%, PPG 7%, Reb G 4%, Reb 2%.
  • Stats are per game and built like the model's ratings: last season pulled a third of the way to league average and worth 15 games, then this season's games. Early in the season they are mostly last season.
  • Model = the goals the model projects against a league-average opponent (what the picks use). Sched = how tough the opponents faced have been, judged by their Total Defense (for offense) or Total Offense (for defense) scores. Adj # = the Total rank after correcting every stat for that schedule.
  • Colors = rank fifths, green = strong, red = weak. The #OFF / #DEF tags on the dashboard use these Total ranks.
  • Click a team to see its last 10 games this season: projected vs actual goals, the total vs the line, and the model's last pre-game call. † = backfilled day (opening line), not in the paper record.