NHL Total Model · 2026-10-06

7:00 PM ETAVOID near miss −0.01

O 6 ✗ went over

OTT#6 OFF / #4 DEF32.98●

S. Ersson ✓ Trash 1

DET#21 OFF / #12 DEF53.06●

J. Gibson ✓ Mid 41

8 goals · proj 6.03 · P(7+) 46%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
OTT	2.19	0.63	-1.5%	0.39	-8.0%	+1.5%	+0.7%
DET	1.71	0.56	+6.2%	0.39	+6.5%	-1.4%	+3.3%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
OTT	2.25#5 of 32	2.00#12 of 32	2.19goals
DET	1.86#28 of 32	1.88#3 of 32	1.71goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
OTT	0.60#12 of 32	0.58#23 of 32	0.63goals
DET	0.62#11 of 32	0.50#5 of 32	0.56goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
OTT
Tim Stützle C	-4.2%	Played
Drake Batherson R	-3.3%	Played
Dylan Cozens C	-2.5%	Played
Shane Pinto C	-1.5%	Played
Claude Giroux R	-1.3%	Played
DET
Alex DeBrincat R	-5.1%	Played
Lucas Raymond L	-3.7%	Played
Dylan Larkin C	-3.1%	Played
Moritz Seider D	-1.1%	Played
Viktor Arvidsson L	-0.3%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
OTT
Jordan Spence D	+2.1%	Played
Drake Batherson R	+1.5%	Played
Dylan Cozens C	+1.4%	Played
Tim Stützle C	+1.2%	Played
Tyler Kleven D	+1.1%	Played
DET
Moritz Seider D	+1.3%	Played
Alex DeBrincat R	+1.2%	Played
Lucas Raymond L	+1.2%	Played
Emmitt Finnie C	+0.7%	Played
Axel Sandin-Pellikka D	+0.6%	Played

Also out: OTT: Jake Sanderson -1.0% attack, +0.6% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (5.73 → 6.03)

12:13 AM 5.73 first run
11:18 AM 6.01 +0.28OTT goalie: Linus Ullmark → Samuel Ersson +0.26; Injuries / lineup: Dylan Larkin (DET) back in +0.06; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.04; OTT lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-05); DET goalie John Gibson: Likely → Confirmed; Dylan Larkin (DET) day-to-day; DET lineup: Ansar Khan Oct 6 10:34 AM; Line 5.5 o-135 → 5.5 o-136
12:17 PM 6.03 +0.02Injuries / lineup: J.T. Compher (DET) out, Mason Appleton (DET) out +0.02
1:18 PM 6.03 Line 5.5 o-136 → 6 o-126
2:17 PM 6.03 Line 6 o-126 → 6 o-110
3:17 PM 6.03 no change
4:17 PM 6.03 OTT goalie Samuel Ersson: Likely → Confirmed
4:23 PM 6.03 no change
5:17 PM 6.03 no change
6:17 PM 6.03 Injuries / lineup: Ridly Greig (OTT) back in +0.00; OTT lineup: Projected Oct 6 5:19 PM; Line 6 o-110 → 6 o-123
6:45 PM 6.03 OTT lineup: Ottawa Senators Oct 6 6:40 PM; Dylan Larkin (DET) off day-to-day; DET lineup: Ansar Khan Oct 6 6:45 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: OTT projects under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (OTT 2.98). OTT just misses the cutoff (by 0.01), and the rule needs both teams over it, so the 6.03 total isn't enough on its own. At 5-on-5, OTT is great (2.19) and DET is trash (1.71); on the power play, OTT is good (0.63) and DET is mid (0.56). OTT faces John Gibson, a Mid goalie, grade 41 (-1.5%); DET faces Samuel Ersson, a Trash goalie, grade 1 (+6.2%). Other factors: OTT played yesterday (-8%); DET's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); injuries help DET 3.3%. OTT 2.98: 0.03 goals below what an average team would score (3.00). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.14 (its attack ranks #5 of 32, DET's defense #12); power play +0.06 (its power play ranks #12, DET's penalty kill and penalty habits #23); team speed +0.04 (it skates faster than DET, +1.5%); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.7%). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.25 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); John Gibson in goal -0.05 (a Mid goalie, grade 41, -1.5%). DET 3.06: 0.05 goals above what an average team would score (3.00). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.18 (OTT played yesterday, +6.5%); Samuel Ersson in goal +0.16 (a Trash goalie, grade 1, +6.2%); injuries +0.10 (missing players on both teams, net, +3.3%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.34 (its attack ranks #28 of 32, OTT's defense #3); team speed -0.04 (it skates slower than OTT, -1.4%). The model projects 6.03 total goals against a 6 line, with a 46% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 5.5 to 6, toward the over. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 8 goals (OTT 3, DET 5), so it went over 6 and the call was wrong.

7:00 PM ETAVOID near miss −0.03 was SLAM

O 6 ✗ went over

CAR#2 OFF / #3 DEF63.01●

B. Bussi ✓ OK 27

MTL#11 OFF / #24 DEF42.96●

J. Dobes ✓ Good 73

10 goals · proj 5.97 · P(7+) 46%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
CAR	2.17	0.73	-4.3%	0.39	–	-1.8%	-2.7%
MTL	2.05	0.48	-0.3%	0.39	–	+2.2%	-0.7%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CAR	2.13#11 of 32	2.09#20 of 32	2.17goals
MTL	2.13#10 of 32	1.97#9 of 32	2.05goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CAR	0.65#5 of 32	0.62#25 of 32	0.73goals
MTL	0.54#18 of 32	0.49#4 of 32	0.48goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
CAR
Sebastian Aho C	-4.4%	Played
Andrei Svechnikov R	-3.8%	Played
Nikolaj Ehlers L	-3.1%	Played
Seth Jarvis C	-3.0%	Didn't play
Jackson Blake R	-2.5%	Played
MTL
Cole Caufield R	-5.3%	Played
Nick Suzuki C	-5.0%	Played
Juraj Slafkovský L	-3.3%	Played
Ivan Demidov R	-2.4%	Didn't play
Lane Hutson D	-2.2%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
CAR
Jackson Blake R	+1.8%	Played
Nikolaj Ehlers L	+1.4%	Played
Logan Stankoven C	+1.4%	Played
Sean Walker D	+1.4%	Played
Shayne Gostisbehere D	+1.4%	Played
MTL
Lane Hutson D	+2.0%	Played
Cole Caufield R	+1.2%	Played
Zachary Bolduc R	+1.2%	Played
Nick Suzuki C	+1.1%	Played
Ivan Demidov R	+0.8%	Didn't play

Also out: CAR: Alexander Nikishin -0.5% attack, +0.7% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.02 → 5.97)

12:13 AM 6.02 first run
11:18 AM 5.94 -0.08Injuries / lineup: Ivan Demidov (MTL) out -0.04; CAR goalie: Brandon Bussi → Pyotr Kochetkov -0.03; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; MTL lineup: J-F Chaumont Oct 6 10:51 AM; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o+102
12:17 PM 5.97 +0.04CAR goalie: Pyotr Kochetkov → Brandon Bussi +0.03; MTL goalie Jakub Dobes: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o-100
1:18 PM 5.97 -0.01Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated -0.01; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o+102
2:17 PM 5.97 CAR lineup: Walt Ruff Oct 6 2:11 PM; Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o-106
3:17 PM 5.97 Line 6.5 o-106 → 6.5 o-105
4:17 PM 5.97 Line 6.5 o-105 → 6.5 o-104
4:23 PM 5.97 no change
5:17 PM 5.97 no change
6:17 PM 5.97 Line 6.5 o-104 → 6 o-118
6:45 PM 5.97 no change

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: MTL projects under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (MTL 2.96). At 5-on-5, CAR is good (2.17) and MTL is good (2.05); on the power play, CAR is great (0.73) and MTL is bad (0.48). CAR faces Jakub Dobes, a Good goalie, grade 73 (-4.3%); MTL faces Brandon Bussi, an OK goalie, grade 27 (-0.3%). Other factors: injuries cost CAR 2.7%; MTL's team speed adds 2.2%. CAR 3.01: 0.00 goals above what an average team would score (3.00). Pushing it up: power play +0.17 (its power play ranks #5, MTL's penalty kill and penalty habits #25); 5-on-5 matchup +0.12 (its attack ranks #11 of 32, MTL's defense #20). Holding it back: Jakub Dobes in goal -0.14 (a Good goalie, grade 73, -4.3%); injuries -0.08 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.7%); team speed -0.06 (it skates slower than MTL, -1.8%). MTL 2.96: 0.05 goals below what an average team would score (3.00). Pushing it up: team speed +0.06 (it skates faster than CAR, +2.2%). Holding it back: power play -0.08 (its power play ranks #18, CAR's penalty kill and penalty habits #4); injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.7%). The model projects 5.97 total goals against a 6 line, with a 46% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 6.5 to 6, toward the under. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 10 goals (CAR 6, MTL 4), so it went over 6 and the call was wrong.

7:00 PM ETAVOID near miss −0.04

U 6.5 ✓ under

MIN#8 OFF / #8 DEF22.95●

J. Wallstedt ✓ Mid 42

BUF#14 OFF / #18 DEF33.01●

C. Ellis ✓ OK 30

5 goals · proj 5.95 · P(7+) 46%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
MIN	2.03	0.62	-0.6%	0.39	–	-2.9%	+0.2%
BUF	2.12	0.49	-1.6%	0.39	–	+3.3%	-1.2%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
MIN	2.02#16 of 32	2.06#19 of 32	2.03goals
BUF	2.23#6 of 32	1.95#8 of 32	2.12goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
MIN	0.66#4 of 32	0.52#7 of 32	0.62goals
BUF	0.50#26 of 32	0.54#13 of 32	0.49goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
MIN
Kirill Kaprizov L	-5.4%	Played
Matt Boldy L	-4.2%	Played
Quinn Hughes D	-2.5%	Played
Joel Eriksson Ek C	-2.3%	Played
Ryan Hartman R	-0.8%	Played
BUF
Tage Thompson C	-4.7%	Played
Rasmus Dahlin D	-2.4%	Played
Jason Zucker L	-2.0%	Didn't play
Josh Doan R	-1.9%	Played
Jack Quinn R	-1.9%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
MIN
Quinn Hughes D	+1.8%	Played
Kirill Kaprizov L	+1.5%	Played
Jared Spurgeon D	+1.0%	Played
Matt Boldy L	+1.0%	Played
Bobby Brink R	+0.9%	Played
BUF
Rasmus Dahlin D	+1.3%	Played
Josh Doan R	+1.1%	Played
Noah Ostlund C	+1.0%	Played
Zach Benson L	+0.9%	Played
Tage Thompson C	+0.8%	Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.10 → 5.95)

12:13 AM 6.10 first run
11:18 AM 5.95 -0.14MIN goalie: Calvin Pickard → Jesper Wallstedt -0.13; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o-100
12:17 PM 5.95 MIN goalie Jesper Wallstedt: Likely → Confirmed; BUF goalie Colten Ellis: Likely → Confirmed
1:18 PM 5.95 no change
2:17 PM 5.95 Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o+101
3:17 PM 5.95 BUF lineup: Bill Hoppe Oct 6 2:57 PM
4:17 PM 5.95 no change
4:23 PM 5.95 no change
5:17 PM 5.95 no change
6:17 PM 5.95 no change
6:45 PM 5.95 MIN lineup: Dylan Loucks Oct 6 6:43 PM; BUF lineup: Matthew Fairburn Oct 6 6:42 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: MIN projects under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (MIN 2.95). At 5-on-5, MIN is mid (2.03) and BUF is good (2.12); on the power play, MIN is good (0.62) and BUF is bad (0.49). MIN faces Colten Ellis, an OK goalie, grade 30 (-0.6%); BUF faces Jesper Wallstedt, a Mid goalie, grade 42 (-1.6%). Other factors: MIN's team speed costs 2.9%; BUF's team speed adds 3.3%. MIN 2.95: 0.06 goals below what an average team would score (3.00). Pushing it up: power play +0.06 (its power play ranks #4, BUF's penalty kill and penalty habits #7). Holding it back: team speed -0.09 (it skates slower than BUF, -2.9%); Colten Ellis in goal -0.02 (an OK goalie, grade 30, -0.6%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.02 (its attack ranks #16 of 32, BUF's defense #19). BUF 3.01: 0.00 goals above what an average team would score (3.00). Pushing it up: team speed +0.10 (it skates faster than MIN, +3.3%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.07 (its attack ranks #6 of 32, MIN's defense #8). Holding it back: power play -0.07 (its power play ranks #26, MIN's penalty kill and penalty habits #13); Jesper Wallstedt in goal -0.05 (a Mid goalie, grade 42, -1.6%); injuries -0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.2%). The model projects 5.95 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 46% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (MIN 2, BUF 3), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

7:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

UTA#9 OFF / #6 DEF53.17●

K. Vejmelka ✓ Mid 47

NJD#12 OFF / #15 DEF32.68●

J. Allen ✓ Mid 58

8 goals · proj 5.85 · P(7+) 44%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
UTA	2.16	0.58	-2.9%	0.39	–	+3.7%	+0.7%
NJD	1.89	0.53	-2.0%	0.39	–	-3.4%	+0.6%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
UTA	2.18#8 of 32	2.03#14 of 32	2.16goals
NJD	1.92#25 of 32	2.01#13 of 32	1.89goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
UTA	0.68#2 of 32	0.47#3 of 32	0.58goals
NJD	0.53#21 of 32	0.56#18 of 32	0.53goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
UTA
Dylan Guenther R	-4.0%	Played
Clayton Keller R	-3.8%	Played
Nick Schmaltz C	-3.6%	Played
Logan Cooley C	-2.3%	Played
Mikhail Sergachev D	-1.4%	Played
NJD
Jack Hughes C	-3.8%	Played
Nico Hischier C	-3.6%	Played
Jesper Bratt L	-3.4%	Played
Timo Meier R	-1.9%	Played
Dougie Hamilton D	-1.3%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
UTA
Clayton Keller R	+1.6%	Played
Nate Schmidt D	+1.4%	Played
Nick Schmaltz C	+1.0%	Played
Barrett Hayton C	+1.0%	Played
Michael Carcone L	+0.9%	Played
NJD
Jack Hughes C	+1.1%	Played
Luke Hughes D	+1.0%	Played
Jesper Bratt L	+0.9%	Played
Dougie Hamilton D	+0.9%	Played
Timo Meier R	+0.8%	Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (5.86 → 5.85)

12:13 AM 5.86 first run
11:18 AM 5.85 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 5.5 o-133 → 6.5 o+102
12:17 PM 5.85 NJD goalie Jake Allen: Likely → Confirmed; NJD lineup: Amanda Stein Oct 6 11:37 AM; Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o-107
1:18 PM 5.85 UTA goalie Karel Vejmelka: Likely → Confirmed; UTA lineup: Cole Bagley Oct 6 12:21 PM; Line 6.5 o-107 → 6.5 o+101
2:17 PM 5.85 Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o+102
3:17 PM 5.85 no change
4:17 PM 5.85 no change
4:23 PM 5.85 no change
5:17 PM 5.85 no change
6:17 PM 5.85 Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o-110
6:45 PM 5.85 no change

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: NJD projects under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (NJD 2.68). At 5-on-5, UTA is good (2.16) and NJD is bad (1.89); on the power play, UTA is mid (0.58) and NJD is mid (0.53). UTA faces Jake Allen, a Mid goalie, grade 58 (-2.9%); NJD faces Karel Vejmelka, a Mid goalie, grade 47 (-2.0%). Other factors: UTA's team speed adds 3.7%; NJD's team speed costs 3.4%. UTA 3.17: 0.16 goals above what an average team would score (3.00). Pushing it up: team speed +0.11 (it skates faster than NJD, +3.7%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.11 (its attack ranks #8 of 32, NJD's defense #14); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.7%); power play +0.02 (its power play ranks #2, NJD's penalty kill and penalty habits #3). Holding it back: Jake Allen in goal -0.09 (a Mid goalie, grade 58, -2.9%). NJD 2.68: 0.33 goals below what an average team would score (3.00). Pushing it up: injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.6%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.16 (its attack ranks #25 of 32, UTA's defense #13); team speed -0.09 (it skates slower than UTA, -3.4%); Karel Vejmelka in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 47, -2.0%); power play -0.03 (its power play ranks #21, UTA's penalty kill and penalty habits #18). The model projects 5.85 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 44% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 5.5 to 6.5, toward the over. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 8 goals (UTA 5, NJD 3), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

7:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6 ✗ went over

NSH#22 OFF / #20 DEF42.88●

J. Saros ✓ OK 37

TOR#27 OFF / #29 DEF52.93●

A. Stolarz ✓ Good 76

9 goals · proj 5.81 · P(7+) 44%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
NSH	2.02	0.65	-4.7%	0.39	–	-1.8%	+0.4%
TOR	1.99	0.55	-1.2%	0.39	–	+1.3%	-0.1%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NSH	1.87#27 of 32	2.21#30 of 32	2.02goals
TOR	1.95#21 of 32	2.10#21 of 32	1.99goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NSH	0.58#15 of 32	0.63#28 of 32	0.65goals
TOR	0.53#19 of 32	0.57#21 of 32	0.55goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
NSH
Filip Forsberg L	-4.2%	Played
Steven Stamkos C	-4.0%	Played
Ryan O'Reilly C	-3.0%	Played
Roman Josi D	-1.4%	Played
Jonathan Marchessault R	-1.1%	Played
TOR
William Nylander R	-4.4%	Played
Auston Matthews C	-3.7%	Played
John Tavares C	-3.6%	Played
Easton Cowan R	-0.6%	Played
Kirill Marchenko R	-0.6%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
NSH
Filip Forsberg L	+0.7%	Played
Steven Stamkos C	+0.7%	Played
Roman Josi D	+0.4%	Played
Adam Wilsby D	+0.4%	Played
Jonathan Marchessault R	+0.2%	Played
TOR
Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	+0.3%	Played
Darren Raddysh D	+0.2%	Played
John Tavares C	+0.2%	Played
Jack Roslovic C	+0.2%	Played
Kirill Marchenko R	+0.1%	Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (5.82 → 5.81)

12:13 AM 5.82 first run
11:18 AM 5.81 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; NSH lineup: Max Herz Oct 6 11:01 AM; TOR goalie Anthony Stolarz: Likely → Confirmed; Line 5.5 o-135 → 6 o-121
12:17 PM 5.81 NSH goalie Juuse Saros: Likely → Confirmed
1:18 PM 5.81 Line 6 o-121 → 6 o-122
2:17 PM 5.81 Line 6 o-122 → 6 o-123
3:17 PM 5.81 no change
4:17 PM 5.81 no change
4:23 PM 5.81 no change
5:17 PM 5.81 no change
6:17 PM 5.81 Line 6 o-123 → 6 o-124
6:45 PM 5.81 NSH lineup: Brooks Bratten Oct 6 6:39 PM; TOR lineup: Dave McCarthy Oct 6 6:37 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: NSH and TOR project under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (NSH 2.88, TOR 2.93). At 5-on-5, NSH is mid (2.02) and TOR is mid (1.99); on the power play, NSH is great (0.65) and TOR is mid (0.55). NSH faces Anthony Stolarz, a Good goalie, grade 76 (-4.7%); TOR faces Juuse Saros, an OK goalie, grade 37 (-1.2%). NSH 2.88: 0.13 goals below what an average team would score (3.00). Pushing it up: power play +0.09 (its power play ranks #15, TOR's penalty kill and penalty habits #28); injuries +0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.4%). Holding it back: Anthony Stolarz in goal -0.15 (a Good goalie, grade 76, -4.7%); team speed -0.05 (it skates slower than TOR, -1.8%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.03 (its attack ranks #27 of 32, TOR's defense #30). TOR 2.93: 0.07 goals below what an average team would score (3.00). Pushing it up: team speed +0.04 (it skates faster than NSH, +1.3%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.06 (its attack ranks #21 of 32, NSH's defense #21); Juuse Saros in goal -0.03 (an OK goalie, grade 37, -1.2%); power play -0.01 (its power play ranks #19, NSH's penalty kill and penalty habits #21). The model projects 5.81 total goals against a 6 line, with a 44% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 9 goals (NSH 4, TOR 5), so it went over 6 and the call was wrong.

9:40 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

VGK#5 OFF / #1 DEF63.14●

C. Hart ✓ Trash 12

SEA#28 OFF / #16 DEF22.62●

J. Daccord ✓ Mid 47

8 goals · proj 5.77 · P(7+) 44%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
VGK	2.18	0.60	-1.9%	0.39	–	+0.7%	+0.1%
SEA	1.82	0.39	+1.6%	0.39	–	-0.9%	+0.1%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
VGK	2.13#9 of 32	2.10#21 of 32	2.18goals
SEA	2.05#15 of 32	1.82#1 of 32	1.82goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
VGK	0.67#3 of 32	0.50#6 of 32	0.60goals
SEA	0.51#24 of 32	0.43#1 of 32	0.39goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
VGK
Jack Eichel C	-4.7%	Played
Mitch Marner R	-4.0%	Played
Mark Stone R	-3.8%	Played
Tomas Hertl C	-3.7%	Played
Ivan Barbashev L	-1.8%	Played
SEA
Jordan Eberle R	-2.0%	Played
Jared McCann L	-1.7%	Played
Bobby McMann C	-1.5%	Played
Matty Beniers C	-1.1%	Played
Shane Wright C	-0.9%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
VGK
Tomas Hertl C	+1.6%	Played
Shea Theodore D	+1.3%	Played
Mark Stone R	+1.2%	Played
Ivan Barbashev L	+1.2%	Played
Noah Hanifin D	+1.1%	Played
SEA
Jordan Eberle R	+0.9%	Played
Shane Wright C	+0.8%	Played
Matty Beniers C	+0.7%	Played
Ryker Evans D	+0.7%	Played
Brandon Montour D	+0.6%	Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (5.78 → 5.77)

12:13 AM 5.78 first run
11:18 AM 5.77 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 6 o-115 → 6.5 o-102
12:17 PM 5.77 no change
1:18 PM 5.77 Line 6.5 o-102 → 6.5 o-104
2:17 PM 5.77 SEA lineup: Mike Benton Oct 6 1:54 PM; Line 6.5 o-104 → 6 o-115
3:17 PM 5.77 no change
4:17 PM 5.77 SEA goalie Joey Daccord: Likely → Confirmed
4:23 PM 5.77 no change
5:17 PM 5.77 Line 6 o-115 → 6.5 o-104
6:17 PM 5.77 no change
6:45 PM 5.77 no change
7:19 PM 5.77 no change
7:46 PM 5.77 no change
8:17 PM 5.77 no change
8:47 PM 5.77 no change
9:17 PM 5.77 VGK goalie Carter Hart: Likely → Confirmed
9:26 PM 5.77 no change

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: SEA projects under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (SEA 2.62). At 5-on-5, VGK is good (2.18) and SEA is trash (1.82); on the power play, VGK is good (0.60) and SEA is trash (0.39). VGK faces Joey Daccord, a Mid goalie, grade 47 (-1.9%); SEA faces Carter Hart, a Trash goalie, grade 12 (+1.6%). VGK 3.14: 0.14 goals above what an average team would score (3.00). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.13 (its attack ranks #9 of 32, SEA's defense #21); power play +0.04 (its power play ranks #3, SEA's penalty kill and penalty habits #6); team speed +0.02 (it skates faster than SEA, +0.7%). Holding it back: Joey Daccord in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 47, -1.9%). SEA 2.62: 0.38 goals below what an average team would score (3.00). Pushing it up: Carter Hart in goal +0.04 (a Trash goalie, grade 12, +1.6%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.23 (its attack ranks #15 of 32, VGK's defense #1); power play -0.17 (its power play ranks #24, VGK's penalty kill and penalty habits #1); team speed -0.02 (it skates slower than VGK, -0.9%). The model projects 5.77 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 44% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 6 to 6.5, toward the over. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 8 goals (VGK 6, SEA 2), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

8:00 PM ETAVOID

O 5.5 ✗ went over

STL#29 OFF / #11 DEF23.13●

J. Hofer ✓ Good 65

CHI#32 OFF / #31 DEF42.56●

S. Knight ✓ Mid 53

6 goals · proj 5.69 · P(7+) 43%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
STL	2.34	0.42	-2.5%	0.39	–	-0.2%	+2.1%
CHI	1.85	0.43	-3.5%	0.39	–	-0.1%	-0.9%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
STL	1.97#19 of 32	2.43#32 of 32	2.34goals
CHI	1.86#30 of 32	2.05#18 of 32	1.85goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
STL	0.43#31 of 32	0.54#12 of 32	0.42goals
CHI	0.43#32 of 32	0.56#16 of 32	0.43goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
STL
Robert Thomas C	-2.5%	Played
Jimmy Snuggerud R	-1.8%	Played
Dylan Holloway L	-1.7%	Played
Pavel Buchnevich L	-1.3%	Played
Jake Neighbours L	-0.9%	Played
CHI
Tyler Bertuzzi L	-2.3%	Played
Connor Bedard C	-2.0%	Didn't play
Frank Nazar C	-0.8%	Played
Ryan Donato C	-0.6%	Played
Teuvo Teravainen C	-0.6%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
STL
Dylan Holloway L	+0.8%	Played
Cam Fowler D	+0.7%	Played
Dalibor Dvorsky R	+0.7%	Played
Jake Neighbours L	+0.7%	Played
Jimmy Snuggerud R	+0.6%	Played
CHI
Andrew Mangiapane L	+0.5%	Didn't play
Tyler Bertuzzi L	+0.4%	Played
Ryan Donato C	+0.2%	Played
Oliver Moore C	+0.2%	Played
Sam Rinzel D	+0.2%	Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (5.70 → 5.69)

12:13 AM 5.70 first run
11:18 AM 5.69 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 5.5 o-118 → 5.5 o-120
12:17 PM 5.69 no change
1:18 PM 5.69 STL goalie Joel Hofer: Likely → Confirmed; CHI goalie Spencer Knight: Likely → Confirmed; Bowen Byram (CHI) off day-to-day; CHI lineup: Scott Powers Oct 6 12:19 PM
2:17 PM 5.69 STL lineup: Lou Korac Oct 6 1:52 PM
3:17 PM 5.69 no change
4:17 PM 5.69 no change
4:23 PM 5.69 no change
5:17 PM 5.69 no change
6:17 PM 5.69 no change
6:45 PM 5.69 no change
7:19 PM 5.69 no change
7:46 PM 5.69 STL lineup: Lou Korac Oct 6 7:40 PM; CHI lineup: Vinnie Parise Oct 6 7:41 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: CHI projects under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (CHI 2.56); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, STL is great (2.34) and CHI is bad (1.85); on the power play, STL is trash (0.42) and CHI is trash (0.43). STL faces Spencer Knight, a Mid goalie, grade 53 (-2.5%); CHI faces Joel Hofer, a Good goalie, grade 65 (-3.5%). Other factors: injuries help STL 2.1%. STL 3.13: 0.12 goals above what an average team would score (3.00). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.29 (its attack ranks #19 of 32, CHI's defense #32); injuries +0.07 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.1%). Holding it back: power play -0.15 (its power play ranks #31, CHI's penalty kill and penalty habits #12); Spencer Knight in goal -0.08 (a Mid goalie, grade 53, -2.5%). CHI 2.56: 0.44 goals below what an average team would score (3.00). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.19 (its attack ranks #30 of 32, STL's defense #18); power play -0.13 (its power play ranks #32, STL's penalty kill and penalty habits #16); Joel Hofer in goal -0.09 (a Good goalie, grade 65, -3.5%); injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.9%). The model projects 5.69 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 43% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 6 goals (STL 2, CHI 4), so it went over 5.5 and the call was wrong.

7:30 PM ETAVOID

O 5.5 ✗ went over

NYI#18 OFF / #19 DEF22.64●

S. Varlamov ✓ Mid 41

NYR#24 OFF / #9 DEF52.92●

I. Shesterkin ✓ Strong 94

7 goals · proj 5.56 · P(7+) 42%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
NYI	1.98	0.49	-8.7%	0.39	–	+3.3%	-2.1%
NYR	2.04	0.58	-1.5%	0.39	–	-3.1%	+1.4%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NYI	2.00#18 of 32	2.03#14 of 32	1.98goals
NYR	1.89#26 of 32	2.21#29 of 32	2.04goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NYI	0.51#23 of 32	0.53#9 of 32	0.49goals
NYR	0.56#17 of 32	0.57#22 of 32	0.58goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
NYI
Bo Horvat C	-2.6%	Played
Mathew Barzal C	-2.4%	Didn't play
Matthew Schaefer D	-2.1%	Played
Brayden Schenn C	-1.0%	Played
Calum Ritchie C	-0.7%	Played
NYR
Mika Zibanejad C	-3.1%	Played
Alexis Lafrenière L	-2.4%	Played
J.T. Miller C	-2.1%	Played
Adam Fox D	-1.8%	Played
Will Cuylle L	-0.8%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
NYI
Mathew Barzal C	+1.0%	Didn't play
Matthew Schaefer D	+0.9%	Played
Emil Heineman L	+0.7%	Played
Ondrej Palat L	+0.5%	Played
Brayden Schenn C	+0.5%	Played
NYR
Alexis Lafrenière L	+0.8%	Played
Adam Fox D	+0.7%	Played
Gabe Perreault R	+0.4%	Played
Pavel Dorofeyev R	+0.4%	Played
Tye Kartye L	+0.4%	Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (5.38 → 5.56)

12:13 AM 5.38 first run
11:18 AM 5.57 +0.18NYI goalie: Ilya Sorokin → Semyon Varlamov +0.19; Line 5.5 o-119 → 5.5 o-120
12:17 PM 5.57 NYI goalie Semyon Varlamov: Likely → Confirmed
1:18 PM 5.57 NYI lineup: Stefen Rosner Oct 6 12:18 PM; NYR goalie Igor Shesterkin: Likely → Confirmed
2:17 PM 5.57 no change
3:17 PM 5.56 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Matthew Robertson (NYR) back in -0.01
4:17 PM 5.56 no change
4:23 PM 5.56 no change
5:17 PM 5.56 Line 5.5 o-120 → 5.5 o-121
6:17 PM 5.56 Line 5.5 o-121 → 5.5 o-120
6:45 PM 5.56 Line 5.5 o-120 → 5.5 o-121
7:19 PM 5.56 NYI lineup: Stefen Rosner Oct 6 7:11 PM; NYR lineup: Colin Stephenson Oct 6 7:11 PM; Line 5.5 o-121 → 5.5 o-120

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: NYI and NYR project under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (NYI 2.64, NYR 2.92); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, NYI is mid (1.98) and NYR is mid (2.04); on the power play, NYI is bad (0.49) and NYR is mid (0.58). NYI faces Igor Shesterkin, a Strong goalie, grade 94 (-8.7%); NYR faces Semyon Varlamov, a Mid goalie, grade 41 (-1.5%). Other factors: NYI's team speed adds 3.3%; injuries cost NYI 2.1%; NYR's team speed costs 3.1%. NYI 2.64: 0.36 goals below what an average team would score (3.00). Pushing it up: team speed +0.09 (it skates faster than NYR, +3.3%). Holding it back: Igor Shesterkin in goal -0.25 (a Strong goalie, grade 94, -8.7%); power play -0.07 (its power play ranks #23, NYR's penalty kill and penalty habits #9); 5-on-5 matchup -0.07 (its attack ranks #18 of 32, NYR's defense #14); injuries -0.06 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.1%). NYR 2.92: 0.08 goals below what an average team would score (3.00). Pushing it up: injuries +0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.4%); power play +0.02 (its power play ranks #17, NYI's penalty kill and penalty habits #22). Holding it back: team speed -0.09 (it skates slower than NYI, -3.1%); Semyon Varlamov in goal -0.04 (a Mid goalie, grade 41, -1.5%). The model projects 5.56 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 42% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (NYI 2, NYR 5), so it went over 5.5 and the call was wrong.

10:00 PM ETAVOID

U 6 ✓ under

FLA#16 OFF / #14 DEF22.81●

J. Markstrom ✓ OK 24

LAK#20 OFF / #13 DEF12.71●

D. Kuemper ✓ OK 40

3 goals · proj 5.53 · P(7+) 41%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
FLA	1.78	0.65	-1.4%	0.39	–	–	+1.1%
LAK	1.81	0.55	–	0.39	–	-0.1%	-1.2%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
FLA	1.95#21 of 32	1.88#2 of 32	1.78goals
LAK	1.95#20 of 32	1.90#6 of 32	1.81goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
FLA	0.64#7 of 32	0.56#19 of 32	0.65goals
LAK	0.51#22 of 32	0.60#24 of 32	0.55goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
FLA
Sam Reinhart C	-3.5%	Played
Sam Bennett C	-3.1%	Played
Carter Verhaeghe C	-2.8%	Played
Matthew Tkachuk L	-2.5%	Played
Brad Marchand L	-2.2%	Played
LAK
Artemi Panarin L	-3.9%	Played
Adrian Kempe R	-3.2%	Played
Quinton Byfield R	-1.6%	Played
Kevin Fiala L	-1.5%	Didn't play
Alex Laferriere R	-0.9%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
FLA
Uvis Balinskis D	+0.8%	Played
Niko Mikkola D	+0.8%	Played
Carter Verhaeghe C	+0.8%	Played
Sam Bennett C	+0.7%	Played
Sam Reinhart C	+0.6%	Played
LAK
Brandt Clarke D	+1.8%	Played
Kevin Fiala L	+1.1%	Didn't play
Artemi Panarin L	+1.1%	Played
Adrian Kempe R	+1.0%	Played
Drew Doughty D	+1.0%	Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (5.55 → 5.53)

12:13 AM 5.55 first run
11:18 AM 5.53 -0.02Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; FLA goalie: Akira Schmid → Jacob Markstrom -0.01; Line 5.5 o-130 → 5.5 o-131
12:17 PM 5.53 no change
1:18 PM 5.53 no change
2:17 PM 5.53 LAK goalie Darcy Kuemper: Likely → Confirmed; Line 5.5 o-131 → 6 o-115
3:17 PM 5.53 FLA goalie Jacob Markstrom: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6 o-115 → 6 o-119
4:17 PM 5.53 Line 6 o-119 → 6 o-120
4:23 PM 5.53 Line 6 o-120 → 6 o-121
5:17 PM 5.53 no change
6:17 PM 5.53 Line 6 o-121 → 6 o-105
6:45 PM 5.53 no change
7:19 PM 5.53 Line 6 o-105 → 6 o-121
7:46 PM 5.53 no change
8:17 PM 5.53 no change
8:47 PM 5.53 no change
9:17 PM 5.53 no change
9:26 PM 5.53 no change
9:45 PM 5.53 no change

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: FLA and LAK project under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (FLA 2.81, LAK 2.71). At 5-on-5, FLA is trash (1.78) and LAK is trash (1.81); on the power play, FLA is good (0.65) and LAK is mid (0.55). FLA faces Darcy Kuemper, an OK goalie, grade 40 (-1.4%); LAK faces Jacob Markstrom, an OK goalie, grade 24 (-0.0%). FLA 2.81: 0.19 goals below what an average team would score (3.00). Pushing it up: power play +0.09 (its power play ranks #7, LAK's penalty kill and penalty habits #19); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.1%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.26 (its attack ranks #21 of 32, LAK's defense #2); Darcy Kuemper in goal -0.04 (an OK goalie, grade 40, -1.4%). LAK 2.71: 0.29 goals below what an average team would score (3.00). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.24 (its attack ranks #20 of 32, FLA's defense #6); injuries -0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.2%). The model projects 5.53 total goals against a 6 line, with a 41% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 5.5 to 6, toward the over. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 3 goals (FLA 2, LAK 1), so it stayed under 6 and the call was right.