Friday, October 23, 2026

2 games · 0 flags · 1 of 2 went over the line · avg 7.0 goals (projected 6.2) · calls: SLAM – · 1U – · PASS – · AVOID 1 of 2 stayed under

Breakdown (for scoring):greatgoodmidbadtrash
TeamResultGoaliesProjection breakdown
TeamGProjTotal goalsProj totalP(7+)LinePickGoalie5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
TBL#4 OFF / #5 DEF33.03●9O 6.56.3849%6.5 → 6.59:00 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over		A. Vasilevskiy ✓ Strong 932.220.49-1.7%0.50–-4.5%+0.5%
COL#2 OFF / #3 DEF63.34●M. Blackwood ✓ Mid 442.380.56-8.3%0.50–+5.3%+0.8%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
TBL2.34#3 of 321.94#11 of 322.22goals0.56#18 of 320.48#2 of 320.49goals
COL2.57#1 of 321.88#4 of 322.38goals0.55#20 of 320.57#14 of 320.56goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-gamePlayerIf outPre-game
TBLNikita Kucherov R-7.4%PlaysGage Goncalves C+1.2%Plays
Brandon Hagel L-5.2%PlaysPontus Holmberg R+1.1%Plays
Jake Guentzel C-5.0%PlaysNikita Kucherov R+1.1%Plays
Brayden Point C-3.4%PlaysJake Guentzel C+0.9%Plays
Anthony Cirelli C-2.8%PlaysCharle-Edouard D'Astous D+0.8%Plays
COLNathan MacKinnon C-7.0%PlaysMartin Necas C+1.4%Plays
Martin Necas C-5.1%PlaysSam Malinski D+1.3%Plays
Cale Makar D-3.2%PlaysNathan MacKinnon C+1.3%Plays
Brock Nelson C-2.9%PlaysBrett Kulak D+0.9%Plays
Artturi Lehkonen L-2.8%PlaysCale Makar D+0.8%Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.36 → 6.38)
  • 12:02 AM 6.36 first run
  • 3:41 AM 6.36 TBL goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy: Projected → Likely; COL goalie Mackenzie Blackwood: Projected → Likely; Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o-100
  • 5:03 AM 6.36 no change
  • 11:18 AM 6.38 +0.02Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.02
  • 12:17 PM 6.38 no change
  • 1:17 PM 6.38 COL goalie Mackenzie Blackwood: Likely → Confirmed
  • 2:17 PM 6.38 TBL goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o+100
  • 3:17 PM 6.38 Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o+101
  • 3:20 PM 6.38 no change
  • 4:17 PM 6.38 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.38 Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o-100
  • 6:17 PM 6.38 no change
  • 7:13 PM 6.38 no change
  • 7:17 PM 6.38 no change
  • 7:45 PM 6.38 no change
  • 8:17 PM 6.38 no change
  • 8:45 PM 6.38 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Emil Lilleberg (TBL) out, Dominic James (TBL) back in, Max Crozier (TBL) back in -0.01; Anthony Cirelli (TBL) off day-to-day; TBL lineup: Gabby Shirley Oct 23 8:36 PM; COL lineup: t Oct 23 8:39 PM; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o-101

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: TBL projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (TBL 3.03). TBL just misses the cutoff (by 0.06), and the rule needs both teams over it, so the 6.38 total isn't enough on its own. At 5-on-5, TBL is great (2.22) and COL is great (2.38); on the power play, TBL is bad (0.49) and COL is mid (0.56). TBL faces Mackenzie Blackwood, a Mid goalie, grade 44 (-1.7%); COL faces Andrei Vasilevskiy, a Strong goalie, grade 93 (-8.3%). Other factors: TBL's team speed costs 4.5%; COL's team speed adds 5.3%. TBL 3.03: 0.08 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.18 (its attack ranks #3 of 32, COL's defense #11); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.5%). Holding it back: team speed -0.14 (it skates slower than COL, -4.5%); power play -0.09 (its power play ranks #18, COL's penalty kill and penalty habits #2); Mackenzie Blackwood in goal -0.05 (a Mid goalie, grade 44, -1.7%). COL 3.34: 0.23 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.33 (its attack ranks #1 of 32, TBL's defense #4); team speed +0.17 (it skates faster than TBL, +5.3%); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.8%). Holding it back: Andrei Vasilevskiy in goal -0.28 (a Strong goalie, grade 93, -8.3%); power play -0.02 (its power play ranks #20, TBL's penalty kill and penalty habits #14). The model projects 6.38 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 49% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 9 goals (TBL 3, COL 6), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.
MTL#12 OFF / #24 DEF43.29●5U 6.55.9943%6.5 → 6.58:00 PM ET
AVOID
✓ under		J. Fowler ✓ Mid 592.480.51-2.3%0.49–+3.0%-6.3%
CHI#32 OFF / #28 DEF12.70●S. Knight ✓ Mid 511.790.53-2.9%0.50–-2.8%+1.8%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
MTL2.13#10 of 322.37#31 of 322.48goals0.51#27 of 320.55#11 of 320.51goals
CHI1.77#30 of 322.06#18 of 321.79goals0.43#32 of 320.67#29 of 320.53goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-gamePlayerIf outPre-game
MTLCole Caufield R-5.5%PlaysLane Hutson D+1.9%Plays
Nick Suzuki C-5.1%OUTZachary Bolduc R+1.3%Plays
Juraj Slafkovský L-3.4%PlaysCole Caufield R+1.2%Plays
Lane Hutson D-2.4%PlaysNick Suzuki C+1.1%OUT
Ivan Demidov R-1.7%OUT · IRJuraj Slafkovský L+0.8%Plays
CHITyler Bertuzzi L-2.4%PlaysTyler Bertuzzi L+0.4%Plays
Connor Bedard C-1.9%PlaysAndrew Mangiapane L+0.4%OUT · IR
Patrick Kane R-1.0%PlaysPatrick Kane R+0.3%Plays
Frank Nazar C-0.7%PlaysOliver Moore C+0.3%Plays
Ryan Donato C-0.7%PlaysRyan Donato C+0.3%Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (5.97 → 5.99)
  • 12:02 AM 5.97 first run
  • 3:41 AM 5.96 MTL goalie: Jacob Fowler → Jakub Dobes -0.00; CHI goalie Spencer Knight: Projected → Likely; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o+100
  • 5:03 AM 5.96 no change
  • 11:18 AM 5.98 +0.02Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.02; Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o+101
  • 12:17 PM 5.98 CHI goalie Spencer Knight: Likely → Confirmed
  • 1:17 PM 5.99 MTL goalie: Jakub Dobes → Jacob Fowler +0.00
  • 2:17 PM 5.99 Mike Matheson (MTL) off day-to-day; Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o+100
  • 3:17 PM 5.99 CHI lineup: Vinnie Parise Oct 23 3:05 PM
  • 3:20 PM 5.99 no change
  • 4:17 PM 5.99 no change
  • 5:17 PM 5.99 Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o-100
  • 6:17 PM 5.99 Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o-101
  • 7:13 PM 5.99 Line 6.5 o-101 → 6.5 o-100
  • 7:17 PM 5.99 no change
  • 7:45 PM 5.99 MTL lineup: Eric Engels Oct 23 7:41 PM; CHI lineup: Scott Powers Oct 23 7:38 PM; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o-101

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: CHI projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (CHI 2.70). At 5-on-5, MTL is great (2.48) and CHI is trash (1.79); on the power play, MTL is bad (0.51) and CHI is bad (0.53). MTL faces Spencer Knight, a Mid goalie, grade 51 (-2.3%); CHI faces Jacob Fowler, a Mid goalie, grade 59 (-2.9%). Other factors: MTL's team speed adds 3.0%; injuries cost MTL 6.3%; CHI's team speed costs 2.8%; injuries help CHI 1.8%. MTL 3.29: 0.17 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.43 (its attack ranks #10 of 32, CHI's defense #31); team speed +0.10 (it skates faster than CHI, +3.0%). Holding it back: injuries -0.22 (missing players on both teams, net, -6.3%); Spencer Knight in goal -0.08 (a Mid goalie, grade 51, -2.3%); power play -0.06 (its power play ranks #27, CHI's penalty kill and penalty habits #11). CHI 2.70: 0.41 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: injuries +0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.8%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.25 (its attack ranks #30 of 32, MTL's defense #18); Jacob Fowler in goal -0.08 (a Mid goalie, grade 59, -2.9%); team speed -0.08 (it skates slower than MTL, -2.8%); power play -0.05 (its power play ranks #32, MTL's penalty kill and penalty habits #29). The model projects 5.99 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 43% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (MTL 4, CHI 1), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.
9:00 PM ETAVOID
O 6.5 ✗ went over
TBL#4 OFF / #5 DEF33.03●
A. Vasilevskiy ✓ Strong 93
COL#2 OFF / #3 DEF63.34●
M. Blackwood ✓ Mid 44
9 goals · proj 6.38 · P(7+) 49%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
TBL2.220.49-1.7%0.50–-4.5%+0.5%
COL2.380.56-8.3%0.50–+5.3%+0.8%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
TBL2.34#3 of 321.94#11 of 322.22goals
COL2.57#1 of 321.88#4 of 322.38goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
TBL0.56#18 of 320.48#2 of 320.49goals
COL0.55#20 of 320.57#14 of 320.56goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPre-game
TBL
Nikita Kucherov R-7.4%Plays
Brandon Hagel L-5.2%Plays
Jake Guentzel C-5.0%Plays
Brayden Point C-3.4%Plays
Anthony Cirelli C-2.8%Plays
COL
Nathan MacKinnon C-7.0%Plays
Martin Necas C-5.1%Plays
Cale Makar D-3.2%Plays
Brock Nelson C-2.9%Plays
Artturi Lehkonen L-2.8%Plays
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-game
TBL
Gage Goncalves C+1.2%Plays
Pontus Holmberg R+1.1%Plays
Nikita Kucherov R+1.1%Plays
Jake Guentzel C+0.9%Plays
Charle-Edouard D'Astous D+0.8%Plays
COL
Martin Necas C+1.4%Plays
Sam Malinski D+1.3%Plays
Nathan MacKinnon C+1.3%Plays
Brett Kulak D+0.9%Plays
Cale Makar D+0.8%Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.36 → 6.38)
  • 12:02 AM 6.36 first run
  • 3:41 AM 6.36 TBL goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy: Projected → Likely; COL goalie Mackenzie Blackwood: Projected → Likely; Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o-100
  • 5:03 AM 6.36 no change
  • 11:18 AM 6.38 +0.02Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.02
  • 12:17 PM 6.38 no change
  • 1:17 PM 6.38 COL goalie Mackenzie Blackwood: Likely → Confirmed
  • 2:17 PM 6.38 TBL goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o+100
  • 3:17 PM 6.38 Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o+101
  • 3:20 PM 6.38 no change
  • 4:17 PM 6.38 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.38 Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o-100
  • 6:17 PM 6.38 no change
  • 7:13 PM 6.38 no change
  • 7:17 PM 6.38 no change
  • 7:45 PM 6.38 no change
  • 8:17 PM 6.38 no change
  • 8:45 PM 6.38 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Emil Lilleberg (TBL) out, Dominic James (TBL) back in, Max Crozier (TBL) back in -0.01; Anthony Cirelli (TBL) off day-to-day; TBL lineup: Gabby Shirley Oct 23 8:36 PM; COL lineup: t Oct 23 8:39 PM; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o-101

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: TBL projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (TBL 3.03). TBL just misses the cutoff (by 0.06), and the rule needs both teams over it, so the 6.38 total isn't enough on its own. At 5-on-5, TBL is great (2.22) and COL is great (2.38); on the power play, TBL is bad (0.49) and COL is mid (0.56). TBL faces Mackenzie Blackwood, a Mid goalie, grade 44 (-1.7%); COL faces Andrei Vasilevskiy, a Strong goalie, grade 93 (-8.3%). Other factors: TBL's team speed costs 4.5%; COL's team speed adds 5.3%. TBL 3.03: 0.08 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.18 (its attack ranks #3 of 32, COL's defense #11); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.5%). Holding it back: team speed -0.14 (it skates slower than COL, -4.5%); power play -0.09 (its power play ranks #18, COL's penalty kill and penalty habits #2); Mackenzie Blackwood in goal -0.05 (a Mid goalie, grade 44, -1.7%). COL 3.34: 0.23 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.33 (its attack ranks #1 of 32, TBL's defense #4); team speed +0.17 (it skates faster than TBL, +5.3%); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.8%). Holding it back: Andrei Vasilevskiy in goal -0.28 (a Strong goalie, grade 93, -8.3%); power play -0.02 (its power play ranks #20, TBL's penalty kill and penalty habits #14). The model projects 6.38 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 49% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 9 goals (TBL 3, COL 6), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.
8:00 PM ETAVOID
U 6.5 ✓ under
MTL#12 OFF / #24 DEF43.29●
J. Fowler ✓ Mid 59
CHI#32 OFF / #28 DEF12.70●
S. Knight ✓ Mid 51
5 goals · proj 5.99 · P(7+) 43%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
MTL2.480.51-2.3%0.49–+3.0%-6.3%
CHI1.790.53-2.9%0.50–-2.8%+1.8%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
MTL2.13#10 of 322.37#31 of 322.48goals
CHI1.77#30 of 322.06#18 of 321.79goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
MTL0.51#27 of 320.55#11 of 320.51goals
CHI0.43#32 of 320.67#29 of 320.53goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPre-game
MTL
Cole Caufield R-5.5%Plays
Nick Suzuki C-5.1%OUT
Juraj Slafkovský L-3.4%Plays
Lane Hutson D-2.4%Plays
Ivan Demidov R-1.7%OUT · IR
CHI
Tyler Bertuzzi L-2.4%Plays
Connor Bedard C-1.9%Plays
Patrick Kane R-1.0%Plays
Frank Nazar C-0.7%Plays
Ryan Donato C-0.7%Plays
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-game
MTL
Lane Hutson D+1.9%Plays
Zachary Bolduc R+1.3%Plays
Cole Caufield R+1.2%Plays
Nick Suzuki C+1.1%OUT
Juraj Slafkovský L+0.8%Plays
CHI
Tyler Bertuzzi L+0.4%Plays
Andrew Mangiapane L+0.4%OUT · IR
Patrick Kane R+0.3%Plays
Oliver Moore C+0.3%Plays
Ryan Donato C+0.3%Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (5.97 → 5.99)
  • 12:02 AM 5.97 first run
  • 3:41 AM 5.96 MTL goalie: Jacob Fowler → Jakub Dobes -0.00; CHI goalie Spencer Knight: Projected → Likely; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o+100
  • 5:03 AM 5.96 no change
  • 11:18 AM 5.98 +0.02Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.02; Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o+101
  • 12:17 PM 5.98 CHI goalie Spencer Knight: Likely → Confirmed
  • 1:17 PM 5.99 MTL goalie: Jakub Dobes → Jacob Fowler +0.00
  • 2:17 PM 5.99 Mike Matheson (MTL) off day-to-day; Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o+100
  • 3:17 PM 5.99 CHI lineup: Vinnie Parise Oct 23 3:05 PM
  • 3:20 PM 5.99 no change
  • 4:17 PM 5.99 no change
  • 5:17 PM 5.99 Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o-100
  • 6:17 PM 5.99 Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o-101
  • 7:13 PM 5.99 Line 6.5 o-101 → 6.5 o-100
  • 7:17 PM 5.99 no change
  • 7:45 PM 5.99 MTL lineup: Eric Engels Oct 23 7:41 PM; CHI lineup: Scott Powers Oct 23 7:38 PM; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o-101

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: CHI projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (CHI 2.70). At 5-on-5, MTL is great (2.48) and CHI is trash (1.79); on the power play, MTL is bad (0.51) and CHI is bad (0.53). MTL faces Spencer Knight, a Mid goalie, grade 51 (-2.3%); CHI faces Jacob Fowler, a Mid goalie, grade 59 (-2.9%). Other factors: MTL's team speed adds 3.0%; injuries cost MTL 6.3%; CHI's team speed costs 2.8%; injuries help CHI 1.8%. MTL 3.29: 0.17 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.43 (its attack ranks #10 of 32, CHI's defense #31); team speed +0.10 (it skates faster than CHI, +3.0%). Holding it back: injuries -0.22 (missing players on both teams, net, -6.3%); Spencer Knight in goal -0.08 (a Mid goalie, grade 51, -2.3%); power play -0.06 (its power play ranks #27, CHI's penalty kill and penalty habits #11). CHI 2.70: 0.41 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: injuries +0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.8%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.25 (its attack ranks #30 of 32, MTL's defense #18); Jacob Fowler in goal -0.08 (a Mid goalie, grade 59, -2.9%); team speed -0.08 (it skates slower than MTL, -2.8%); power play -0.05 (its power play ranks #32, MTL's penalty kill and penalty habits #29). The model projects 5.99 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 43% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (MTL 4, CHI 1), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

Two rows per game (away, then home). ● = team projected high-scoring. Proj = (5v5 + PP + Oth) × goalie (Gl) × back-to-back (B2B) × team speed (Spd) × injuries (Inj). Hover or tap any underlined label for an explanation.