Monday, October 19, 2026

4 games · 1 flag · 2 of 4 went over the line · avg 6.2 goals (projected 6.4) · flags 1-0-0 (+0.71u at close) · calls: 🔨 SLAM 1-0-0 · 1U – · PASS – · AVOID 2 of 3 stayed under

Breakdown (for scoring):greatgoodmidbadtrash
TeamResultGoaliesProjection breakdown
TeamGProjTotal goalsProj totalP(7+)LinePickGoalie5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
PIT#11 OFF / #23 DEF43.27●9O 6.57.0656%6.5 → 6.59:00 PM ET
🔨 SLAM
W
paper W +0.71u		A. Silovs ✓ Trash 22.210.58+0.5%0.49–-3.5%+2.4%
UTA#6 OFF / #8 DEF53.79●S. Cossa ✓ Trash 192.300.68+4.4%0.48–+3.7%+1.2%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
PIT2.30#3 of 321.95#12 of 322.21goals0.58#16 of 320.56#12 of 320.58goals
UTA2.22#7 of 322.11#22 of 322.30goals0.70#2 of 320.54#6 of 320.68goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-gamePlayerIf outPre-game
PITSidney Crosby C-3.9%PlaysTommy Novak C+0.9%Plays
Bryan Rust R-2.9%PlaysBen Kindel C+0.8%Plays
Rickard Rakell R-2.8%PlaysSamuel Girard D+0.8%OUT
Evgeni Malkin C-2.7%PlaysKaedan Korczak D+0.6%Plays
Erik Karlsson D-1.8%PlaysEgor Chinakhov R+0.6%Day-to-day
UTADylan Guenther R-3.9%PlaysClayton Keller R+1.5%Plays
Clayton Keller R-3.8%PlaysNate Schmidt D+1.4%Plays
Nick Schmaltz C-3.5%PlaysBarrett Hayton C+1.1%Plays
Logan Cooley C-2.5%PlaysNick Schmaltz C+1.0%Plays
Mikhail Sergachev D-1.5%PlaysJohn Marino D+0.9%OUT

Also out: UTA: Michael Carcone -0.7% attack, +0.7% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.90 → 7.06)
  • 12:01 AM 6.90 first run
  • 12:52 AM 6.95 +0.05UTA goalie: Karel Vejmelka → Sebastian Cossa +0.05; PIT goalie Arturs Silovs: Projected → Likely
  • 5:33 AM 6.90 -0.05UTA goalie: Sebastian Cossa → Karel Vejmelka -0.05
  • 11:18 AM 6.89 -0.01rounding; UTA lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-17); Line 6.5 o-125 → 6.5 o-129
  • 12:18 PM 6.89 Line 6.5 o-129 → 6.5 o-130
  • 1:17 PM 6.95 +0.05UTA goalie: Karel Vejmelka → Sebastian Cossa +0.05; UTA lineup: Cole Bagley Oct 19 1:14 PM
  • 2:17 PM 7.00 +0.05Injuries / lineup: Elmer Soderblom (PIT) out, Ville Koivunen (PIT) out, Egor Chinakhov (PIT) back in +0.05; PIT goalie Arturs Silovs: Likely → Confirmed; Egor Chinakhov (PIT) day-to-day; PIT lineup: Josh Getzoff Oct 19 1:38 PM
  • 2:45 PM 7.00 no change
  • 3:18 PM 7.00 Line 6.5 o-130 → 6.5 o-131
  • 4:18 PM 7.00 no change
  • 4:38 PM 6.98 -0.02Injuries / lineup: Ville Koivunen (PIT) back in -0.01; PIT lineup: Projected Oct 19 4:27 PM
  • 5:17 PM 6.98 no change
  • 6:17 PM 6.98 Line 6.5 o-131 → 6.5 o-133
  • 6:45 PM 6.98 no change
  • 7:18 PM 6.98 no change
  • 8:17 PM 6.98 no change
  • 8:26 PM 6.98 no change
  • 8:45 PM 7.06 +0.08Injuries / lineup: Samuel Girard (PIT) out, John Marino (UTA) out, Nick DeSimone (UTA) back in +0.07; UTA lineup: Utah Mammoth Oct 19 8:42 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

🔨 SLAM: both teams project as high-scoring (PIT 3.27, UTA 3.79; cutoff 3.10), the line is 6.5, and both are good or better at 5-on-5, the strongest over spot the model has. At 5-on-5, PIT is great (2.21) and UTA is great (2.30); on the power play, PIT is mid (0.58) and UTA is great (0.68). PIT faces Sebastian Cossa, a Trash goalie, grade 19 (+0.5%); UTA faces Arturs Silovs, a Trash goalie, grade 2 (+4.4%). Other factors: PIT's team speed costs 3.5%; injuries help PIT 2.4%; UTA's team speed adds 3.7%. PIT 3.27: 0.16 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.17 (its attack ranks #3 of 32, UTA's defense #12); injuries +0.07 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.4%); Sebastian Cossa in goal +0.02 (a Trash goalie, grade 19, +0.5%). Holding it back: team speed -0.11 (it skates slower than UTA, -3.5%). UTA 3.79: 0.69 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.26 (its attack ranks #7 of 32, PIT's defense #22); Arturs Silovs in goal +0.15 (a Trash goalie, grade 2, +4.4%); team speed +0.13 (it skates faster than PIT, +3.7%); power play +0.11 (its power play ranks #2, PIT's penalty kill and penalty habits #6); injuries +0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.2%). The model projects 7.06 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 56% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over 55% of the time at the opening line and 56.5% at the closing line in 2021-26. Final: 9 goals (PIT 4, UTA 5), so it went over 6.5 and the call was right.
SJS#23 OFF / #29 DEF13.08●4U 6.56.4149%6.5 → 6.57:30 PM ET
AVOID near miss −0.01 ⚠ lineup
✓ under		Y. Askarov ✓ Trash 31.910.73-1.3%0.49–-0.4%–
TOR#21 OFF / #31 DEF33.32●S. Bobrovsky ✓ OK 382.040.76+4.1%0.48–+0.1%-2.8%
⚠ Lineup change since 12:01 AM: William Nylander now Day-to-day (was Plays, seen 11:18 AM) · TOR ±4.6% · projection 6.21 → 6.41
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
SJS1.79#28 of 322.17#26 of 321.91goals0.61#12 of 320.66#27 of 320.73goals
TOR1.95#22 of 322.13#24 of 322.04goals0.58#15 of 320.72#32 of 320.76goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-gamePlayerIf outPre-game
SJSMacklin Celebrini C-4.9%PlaysMacklin Celebrini C+0.9%Plays
Will Smith C-2.4%PlaysTyler Toffoli C+0.7%Plays
Tyler Toffoli C-1.9%PlaysWill Smith C+0.7%Plays
Alexander Wennberg C-1.0%PlaysDmitry Orlov D+0.7%Plays
Kiefer Sherwood L-0.8%PlaysSam Dickinson D+0.4%Plays
TOR⚠ William Nylander R-4.6%Day-to-daywas PlaysDarren Raddysh D+0.5%–
Auston Matthews C-4.0%–Jack Roslovic C+0.4%–
John Tavares C-3.3%OUT · IRKirill Marchenko R+0.4%–
Kirill Marchenko R-1.4%–Oliver Ekman-Larsson D+0.3%–
Darren Raddysh D-1.1%–Nick Paul L+0.3%–

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.21 → 6.41)
  • 12:01 AM 6.21 first run
  • 12:52 AM 6.33 +0.12SJS goalie: Alex Nedeljkovic → Yaroslav Askarov +0.12; TOR goalie Anthony Stolarz: Projected → Likely
  • 5:33 AM 6.33 no change
  • 11:18 AM 6.41 +0.08TOR goalie: Anthony Stolarz → Sergei Bobrovsky +0.08; SJS lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-17); William Nylander (TOR) day-to-day; TOR lineup: Mark Masters Oct 19 10:47 AM; Line 6.5 o-125 → 6.5 o-126
  • 12:18 PM 6.41 SJS lineup: Max Miller Oct 19 12:00 PM; Line 6.5 o-126 → 6.5 o-130
  • 1:18 PM 6.41 SJS goalie Yaroslav Askarov: Likely → Confirmed
  • 2:17 PM 6.41 no change
  • 2:45 PM 6.41 no change
  • 3:18 PM 6.41 no change
  • 4:18 PM 6.41 no change
  • 4:38 PM 6.41 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.41 no change
  • 6:17 PM 6.41 Line 6.5 o-130 → 6.5 o-132
  • 6:45 PM 6.41 Line 6.5 o-132 → 6.5 o-136
  • 7:18 PM 6.41 SJS lineup: Sheng Peng Oct 19 7:11 PM; Line 6.5 o-136 → 6.5 o-144

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: SJS projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (SJS 3.08). SJS just misses the cutoff (by 0.01), and the rule needs both teams over it, so the 6.41 total isn't enough on its own. At 5-on-5, SJS is bad (1.91) and TOR is mid (2.04); on the power play, SJS is great (0.73) and TOR is great (0.76). SJS faces Sergei Bobrovsky, an OK goalie, grade 38 (-1.3%); TOR faces Yaroslav Askarov, a Trash goalie, grade 3 (+4.1%). Other factors: injuries cost TOR 2.8%. SJS 3.08: 0.02 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: power play +0.15 (its power play ranks #12, TOR's penalty kill and penalty habits #27). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.12 (its attack ranks #28 of 32, TOR's defense #26); Sergei Bobrovsky in goal -0.04 (an OK goalie, grade 38, -1.3%); team speed -0.01 (it skates slower than TOR, -0.4%). TOR 3.32: 0.22 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: power play +0.18 (its power play ranks #15, SJS's penalty kill and penalty habits #32); Yaroslav Askarov in goal +0.13 (a Trash goalie, grade 3, +4.1%). Holding it back: injuries -0.10 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.8%). The model projects 6.41 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 49% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 4 goals (SJS 1, TOR 3), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.
COL#2 OFF / #3 DEF24.16●5U 6.56.3942%6.5 → 6 ↓7:00 PM ET
AVOID
✓ under		M. Blackwood ✓ Mid 442.830.63-3.0%0.49–+5.5%+3.0%
PHI#32 OFF / #19 DEF32.24●J. Woll ✓ Mid 601.530.41-1.7%0.50–-4.7%-2.0%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
COL2.65#1 of 322.17#27 of 322.83goals0.58#17 of 320.60#23 of 320.63goals
PHI1.61#32 of 321.94#10 of 321.53goals0.48#27 of 320.47#2 of 320.41goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-gamePlayerIf outPre-game
COLNathan MacKinnon C-7.0%PlaysMartin Necas C+1.5%Plays
Martin Necas C-5.2%PlaysNathan MacKinnon C+1.4%Plays
Cale Makar D-3.2%PlaysSam Malinski D+1.3%Plays
Brock Nelson C-2.9%PlaysBrett Kulak D+0.9%Plays
Artturi Lehkonen L-2.7%PlaysCale Makar D+0.9%Plays
PHITrevor Zegras C-2.0%PlaysJamie Drysdale D+1.1%Plays
Matvei Michkov R-1.9%PlaysOwen Tippett R+1.0%OUT · IR
Travis Konecny R-1.6%OUT · IRNoah Cates L+0.9%Plays
Owen Tippett R-1.5%OUT · IRMatvei Michkov R+0.9%Plays
Tyson Foerster R-0.7%OUTTrevor Zegras C+0.9%Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.49 → 6.39)
  • 12:01 AM 6.49 first run
  • 12:52 AM 6.34 -0.15PHI goalie: Dan Vladar → Joseph Woll -0.10; COL goalie: Mackenzie Blackwood → Scott Wedgewood -0.05
  • 5:33 AM 6.49 +0.15PHI goalie: Joseph Woll → Dan Vladar +0.10; COL goalie: Scott Wedgewood → Mackenzie Blackwood +0.05; Line 6.5 o+109 → 6.5 o+110
  • 11:18 AM 6.38 -0.11PHI goalie: Dan Vladar → Joseph Woll -0.10; Line 6.5 o+110 → 6.5 o+109
  • 12:18 PM 6.38 COL goalie Mackenzie Blackwood: Likely → Confirmed
  • 1:18 PM 6.38 COL lineup: Bailey Curtis Oct 19 1:04 PM
  • 2:17 PM 6.38 COL lineup: Aarif Deen Oct 19 1:57 PM
  • 2:45 PM 6.39 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Tyson Foerster (PHI) out +0.01; PHI lineup: Projected Oct 19 2:26 PM
  • 3:18 PM 6.39 no change
  • 4:18 PM 6.39 no change
  • 4:38 PM 6.39 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.39 Line 6.5 o+109 → 6.5 o-102
  • 6:17 PM 6.39 no change
  • 6:45 PM 6.39 PHI lineup: Will James Oct 19 6:38 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: PHI projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (PHI 2.24). The 6.39 total looks high, but most of it comes from COL; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, COL is great (2.83) and PHI is trash (1.53); on the power play, COL is good (0.63) and PHI is trash (0.41). COL faces Joseph Woll, a Mid goalie, grade 60 (-3.0%); PHI faces Mackenzie Blackwood, a Mid goalie, grade 44 (-1.7%). Other factors: COL's team speed adds 5.5%; injuries help COL 3.0%; PHI's team speed costs 4.7%; injuries cost PHI 2.0%. COL 4.16: 1.05 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.79 (its attack ranks #1 of 32, PHI's defense #27); team speed +0.21 (it skates faster than PHI, +5.5%); injuries +0.12 (missing players on both teams, net, +3.0%); power play +0.05 (its power play ranks #17, PHI's penalty kill and penalty habits #23). Holding it back: Joseph Woll in goal -0.12 (a Mid goalie, grade 60, -3.0%). PHI 2.24: 0.87 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.51 (its attack ranks #32 of 32, COL's defense #10); power play -0.17 (its power play ranks #27, COL's penalty kill and penalty habits #2); team speed -0.11 (it skates slower than COL, -4.7%); injuries -0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.0%); Mackenzie Blackwood in goal -0.04 (a Mid goalie, grade 44, -1.7%). The model projects 6.39 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 42% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (COL 2, PHI 3), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.
ANA#9 OFF / #22 DEF23.05●7O 6.56.1948%6.5 → 6.57:00 PM ET
AVOID near miss −0.04
✗ went over		V. Husso ✓ Trash 102.020.59-2.6%0.49–+2.3%-1.2%
NYR#22 OFF / #9 DEF53.14●D. Garand ✓ Mid 541.950.69+2.1%0.49–-2.2%+0.5%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
ANA2.07#13 of 321.99#13 of 322.02goals0.60#13 of 320.54#7 of 320.59goals
NYR1.86#26 of 322.13#24 of 321.95goals0.62#10 of 320.62#24 of 320.69goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-gamePlayerIf outPre-game
ANABeckett Sennecke R-3.3%PlaysLeo Carlsson C+0.6%Plays
Leo Carlsson C-3.2%PlaysBeckett Sennecke R+0.5%Plays
Cutter Gauthier L-3.1%PlaysCutter Gauthier L+0.5%Plays
Mikael Granlund C-2.0%PlaysIan Moore D+0.4%OUT · IR
Troy Terry R-1.4%OUT · IRJackson LaCombe D+0.3%Plays
NYRMika Zibanejad C-3.1%PlaysAlexis Lafrenière L+0.8%Plays
Alexis Lafrenière L-2.5%PlaysAdam Fox D+0.7%Plays
J.T. Miller C-2.2%PlaysPavel Dorofeyev R+0.7%Plays
Adam Fox D-1.8%PlaysGabe Perreault R+0.5%Plays
Pavel Dorofeyev R-1.4%PlaysOliver Bjorkstrand R+0.4%Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.11 → 6.19)
  • 12:01 AM 6.11 first run
  • 12:53 AM 6.11 ANA goalie Lukas Dostal: Projected → Likely; NYR goalie Dylan Garand: Projected → Likely
  • 5:33 AM 6.11 Line 6.5 o+104 → 6.5 o+103
  • 11:18 AM 6.11 NYR goalie Dylan Garand: Likely → Confirmed; NYR lineup: Colin Stephenson Oct 19 10:44 AM; Line 6.5 o+103 → 6.5 o+100
  • 12:17 PM 6.19 +0.08ANA goalie: Lukas Dostal → Ville Husso +0.08; Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o-110
  • 1:18 PM 6.19 ANA lineup: Jonny Lazarus Oct 19 1:01 PM; Line 6.5 o-110 → 6.5 o-111
  • 2:17 PM 6.19 Mikael Granlund (ANA) off day-to-day; ANA lineup: Zach Cavanagh Oct 19 1:24 PM; Line 6.5 o-111 → 6.5 o-110
  • 2:45 PM 6.19 no change
  • 3:18 PM 6.19 no change
  • 4:18 PM 6.19 no change
  • 4:38 PM 6.19 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.19 no change
  • 6:17 PM 6.19 no change
  • 6:45 PM 6.19 NYR lineup: Mollie Walker Oct 19 6:36 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: ANA projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (ANA 3.05). ANA just misses the cutoff (by 0.04), and the rule needs both teams over it, so the 6.19 total isn't enough on its own. At 5-on-5, ANA is mid (2.02) and NYR is mid (1.95); on the power play, ANA is mid (0.59) and NYR is great (0.69). ANA faces Dylan Garand, a Mid goalie, grade 54 (-2.6%); NYR faces Ville Husso, a Trash goalie, grade 10 (+2.1%). Other factors: ANA's team speed adds 2.3%; NYR's team speed costs 2.2%. ANA 3.05: 0.05 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: team speed +0.07 (it skates faster than NYR, +2.3%); power play +0.01 (its power play ranks #13, NYR's penalty kill and penalty habits #7). Holding it back: Dylan Garand in goal -0.08 (a Mid goalie, grade 54, -2.6%); injuries -0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.2%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.02 (its attack ranks #13 of 32, NYR's defense #13). NYR 3.14: 0.03 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: power play +0.11 (its power play ranks #10, ANA's penalty kill and penalty habits #24); Ville Husso in goal +0.07 (a Trash goalie, grade 10, +2.1%); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.5%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.09 (its attack ranks #26 of 32, ANA's defense #24); team speed -0.07 (it skates slower than ANA, -2.2%). The model projects 6.19 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 48% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (ANA 2, NYR 5), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.
9:00 PM ET🔨 SLAM
O 6.5 W
paper W +0.71u
PIT#11 OFF / #23 DEF43.27●
A. Silovs ✓ Trash 2
UTA#6 OFF / #8 DEF53.79●
S. Cossa ✓ Trash 19
9 goals · proj 7.06 · P(7+) 56%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
PIT2.210.58+0.5%0.49–-3.5%+2.4%
UTA2.300.68+4.4%0.48–+3.7%+1.2%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
PIT2.30#3 of 321.95#12 of 322.21goals
UTA2.22#7 of 322.11#22 of 322.30goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
PIT0.58#16 of 320.56#12 of 320.58goals
UTA0.70#2 of 320.54#6 of 320.68goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPre-game
PIT
Sidney Crosby C-3.9%Plays
Bryan Rust R-2.9%Plays
Rickard Rakell R-2.8%Plays
Evgeni Malkin C-2.7%Plays
Erik Karlsson D-1.8%Plays
UTA
Dylan Guenther R-3.9%Plays
Clayton Keller R-3.8%Plays
Nick Schmaltz C-3.5%Plays
Logan Cooley C-2.5%Plays
Mikhail Sergachev D-1.5%Plays
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-game
PIT
Tommy Novak C+0.9%Plays
Ben Kindel C+0.8%Plays
Samuel Girard D+0.8%OUT
Kaedan Korczak D+0.6%Plays
Egor Chinakhov R+0.6%Day-to-day
UTA
Clayton Keller R+1.5%Plays
Nate Schmidt D+1.4%Plays
Barrett Hayton C+1.1%Plays
Nick Schmaltz C+1.0%Plays
John Marino D+0.9%OUT

Also out: UTA: Michael Carcone -0.7% attack, +0.7% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.90 → 7.06)
  • 12:01 AM 6.90 first run
  • 12:52 AM 6.95 +0.05UTA goalie: Karel Vejmelka → Sebastian Cossa +0.05; PIT goalie Arturs Silovs: Projected → Likely
  • 5:33 AM 6.90 -0.05UTA goalie: Sebastian Cossa → Karel Vejmelka -0.05
  • 11:18 AM 6.89 -0.01rounding; UTA lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-17); Line 6.5 o-125 → 6.5 o-129
  • 12:18 PM 6.89 Line 6.5 o-129 → 6.5 o-130
  • 1:17 PM 6.95 +0.05UTA goalie: Karel Vejmelka → Sebastian Cossa +0.05; UTA lineup: Cole Bagley Oct 19 1:14 PM
  • 2:17 PM 7.00 +0.05Injuries / lineup: Elmer Soderblom (PIT) out, Ville Koivunen (PIT) out, Egor Chinakhov (PIT) back in +0.05; PIT goalie Arturs Silovs: Likely → Confirmed; Egor Chinakhov (PIT) day-to-day; PIT lineup: Josh Getzoff Oct 19 1:38 PM
  • 2:45 PM 7.00 no change
  • 3:18 PM 7.00 Line 6.5 o-130 → 6.5 o-131
  • 4:18 PM 7.00 no change
  • 4:38 PM 6.98 -0.02Injuries / lineup: Ville Koivunen (PIT) back in -0.01; PIT lineup: Projected Oct 19 4:27 PM
  • 5:17 PM 6.98 no change
  • 6:17 PM 6.98 Line 6.5 o-131 → 6.5 o-133
  • 6:45 PM 6.98 no change
  • 7:18 PM 6.98 no change
  • 8:17 PM 6.98 no change
  • 8:26 PM 6.98 no change
  • 8:45 PM 7.06 +0.08Injuries / lineup: Samuel Girard (PIT) out, John Marino (UTA) out, Nick DeSimone (UTA) back in +0.07; UTA lineup: Utah Mammoth Oct 19 8:42 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

🔨 SLAM: both teams project as high-scoring (PIT 3.27, UTA 3.79; cutoff 3.10), the line is 6.5, and both are good or better at 5-on-5, the strongest over spot the model has. At 5-on-5, PIT is great (2.21) and UTA is great (2.30); on the power play, PIT is mid (0.58) and UTA is great (0.68). PIT faces Sebastian Cossa, a Trash goalie, grade 19 (+0.5%); UTA faces Arturs Silovs, a Trash goalie, grade 2 (+4.4%). Other factors: PIT's team speed costs 3.5%; injuries help PIT 2.4%; UTA's team speed adds 3.7%. PIT 3.27: 0.16 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.17 (its attack ranks #3 of 32, UTA's defense #12); injuries +0.07 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.4%); Sebastian Cossa in goal +0.02 (a Trash goalie, grade 19, +0.5%). Holding it back: team speed -0.11 (it skates slower than UTA, -3.5%). UTA 3.79: 0.69 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.26 (its attack ranks #7 of 32, PIT's defense #22); Arturs Silovs in goal +0.15 (a Trash goalie, grade 2, +4.4%); team speed +0.13 (it skates faster than PIT, +3.7%); power play +0.11 (its power play ranks #2, PIT's penalty kill and penalty habits #6); injuries +0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.2%). The model projects 7.06 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 56% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over 55% of the time at the opening line and 56.5% at the closing line in 2021-26. Final: 9 goals (PIT 4, UTA 5), so it went over 6.5 and the call was right.
7:30 PM ETAVOID near miss −0.01 ⚠ lineup
U 6.5 ✓ under
SJS#23 OFF / #29 DEF13.08●
Y. Askarov ✓ Trash 3
TOR#21 OFF / #31 DEF33.32●
S. Bobrovsky ✓ OK 38
4 goals · proj 6.41 · P(7+) 49%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
SJS1.910.73-1.3%0.49–-0.4%–
TOR2.040.76+4.1%0.48–+0.1%-2.8%
Why this call
⚠ Lineup change since 12:01 AM: William Nylander now Day-to-day (was Plays, seen 11:18 AM) · TOR ±4.6% · projection 6.21 → 6.41
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
SJS1.79#28 of 322.17#26 of 321.91goals
TOR1.95#22 of 322.13#24 of 322.04goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
SJS0.61#12 of 320.66#27 of 320.73goals
TOR0.58#15 of 320.72#32 of 320.76goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPre-game
SJS
Macklin Celebrini C-4.9%Plays
Will Smith C-2.4%Plays
Tyler Toffoli C-1.9%Plays
Alexander Wennberg C-1.0%Plays
Kiefer Sherwood L-0.8%Plays
TOR
⚠ William Nylander R-4.6%Day-to-daywas Plays
Auston Matthews C-4.0%–
John Tavares C-3.3%OUT · IR
Kirill Marchenko R-1.4%–
Darren Raddysh D-1.1%–
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-game
SJS
Macklin Celebrini C+0.9%Plays
Tyler Toffoli C+0.7%Plays
Will Smith C+0.7%Plays
Dmitry Orlov D+0.7%Plays
Sam Dickinson D+0.4%Plays
TOR
Darren Raddysh D+0.5%–
Jack Roslovic C+0.4%–
Kirill Marchenko R+0.4%–
Oliver Ekman-Larsson D+0.3%–
Nick Paul L+0.3%–

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.21 → 6.41)
  • 12:01 AM 6.21 first run
  • 12:52 AM 6.33 +0.12SJS goalie: Alex Nedeljkovic → Yaroslav Askarov +0.12; TOR goalie Anthony Stolarz: Projected → Likely
  • 5:33 AM 6.33 no change
  • 11:18 AM 6.41 +0.08TOR goalie: Anthony Stolarz → Sergei Bobrovsky +0.08; SJS lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-17); William Nylander (TOR) day-to-day; TOR lineup: Mark Masters Oct 19 10:47 AM; Line 6.5 o-125 → 6.5 o-126
  • 12:18 PM 6.41 SJS lineup: Max Miller Oct 19 12:00 PM; Line 6.5 o-126 → 6.5 o-130
  • 1:18 PM 6.41 SJS goalie Yaroslav Askarov: Likely → Confirmed
  • 2:17 PM 6.41 no change
  • 2:45 PM 6.41 no change
  • 3:18 PM 6.41 no change
  • 4:18 PM 6.41 no change
  • 4:38 PM 6.41 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.41 no change
  • 6:17 PM 6.41 Line 6.5 o-130 → 6.5 o-132
  • 6:45 PM 6.41 Line 6.5 o-132 → 6.5 o-136
  • 7:18 PM 6.41 SJS lineup: Sheng Peng Oct 19 7:11 PM; Line 6.5 o-136 → 6.5 o-144

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: SJS projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (SJS 3.08). SJS just misses the cutoff (by 0.01), and the rule needs both teams over it, so the 6.41 total isn't enough on its own. At 5-on-5, SJS is bad (1.91) and TOR is mid (2.04); on the power play, SJS is great (0.73) and TOR is great (0.76). SJS faces Sergei Bobrovsky, an OK goalie, grade 38 (-1.3%); TOR faces Yaroslav Askarov, a Trash goalie, grade 3 (+4.1%). Other factors: injuries cost TOR 2.8%. SJS 3.08: 0.02 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: power play +0.15 (its power play ranks #12, TOR's penalty kill and penalty habits #27). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.12 (its attack ranks #28 of 32, TOR's defense #26); Sergei Bobrovsky in goal -0.04 (an OK goalie, grade 38, -1.3%); team speed -0.01 (it skates slower than TOR, -0.4%). TOR 3.32: 0.22 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: power play +0.18 (its power play ranks #15, SJS's penalty kill and penalty habits #32); Yaroslav Askarov in goal +0.13 (a Trash goalie, grade 3, +4.1%). Holding it back: injuries -0.10 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.8%). The model projects 6.41 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 49% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 4 goals (SJS 1, TOR 3), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.
7:00 PM ETAVOID
U 6.5 ✓ under
COL#2 OFF / #3 DEF24.16●
M. Blackwood ✓ Mid 44
PHI#32 OFF / #19 DEF32.24●
J. Woll ✓ Mid 60
5 goals · proj 6.39 · P(7+) 42%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
COL2.830.63-3.0%0.49–+5.5%+3.0%
PHI1.530.41-1.7%0.50–-4.7%-2.0%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
COL2.65#1 of 322.17#27 of 322.83goals
PHI1.61#32 of 321.94#10 of 321.53goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
COL0.58#17 of 320.60#23 of 320.63goals
PHI0.48#27 of 320.47#2 of 320.41goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPre-game
COL
Nathan MacKinnon C-7.0%Plays
Martin Necas C-5.2%Plays
Cale Makar D-3.2%Plays
Brock Nelson C-2.9%Plays
Artturi Lehkonen L-2.7%Plays
PHI
Trevor Zegras C-2.0%Plays
Matvei Michkov R-1.9%Plays
Travis Konecny R-1.6%OUT · IR
Owen Tippett R-1.5%OUT · IR
Tyson Foerster R-0.7%OUT
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-game
COL
Martin Necas C+1.5%Plays
Nathan MacKinnon C+1.4%Plays
Sam Malinski D+1.3%Plays
Brett Kulak D+0.9%Plays
Cale Makar D+0.9%Plays
PHI
Jamie Drysdale D+1.1%Plays
Owen Tippett R+1.0%OUT · IR
Noah Cates L+0.9%Plays
Matvei Michkov R+0.9%Plays
Trevor Zegras C+0.9%Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.49 → 6.39)
  • 12:01 AM 6.49 first run
  • 12:52 AM 6.34 -0.15PHI goalie: Dan Vladar → Joseph Woll -0.10; COL goalie: Mackenzie Blackwood → Scott Wedgewood -0.05
  • 5:33 AM 6.49 +0.15PHI goalie: Joseph Woll → Dan Vladar +0.10; COL goalie: Scott Wedgewood → Mackenzie Blackwood +0.05; Line 6.5 o+109 → 6.5 o+110
  • 11:18 AM 6.38 -0.11PHI goalie: Dan Vladar → Joseph Woll -0.10; Line 6.5 o+110 → 6.5 o+109
  • 12:18 PM 6.38 COL goalie Mackenzie Blackwood: Likely → Confirmed
  • 1:18 PM 6.38 COL lineup: Bailey Curtis Oct 19 1:04 PM
  • 2:17 PM 6.38 COL lineup: Aarif Deen Oct 19 1:57 PM
  • 2:45 PM 6.39 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Tyson Foerster (PHI) out +0.01; PHI lineup: Projected Oct 19 2:26 PM
  • 3:18 PM 6.39 no change
  • 4:18 PM 6.39 no change
  • 4:38 PM 6.39 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.39 Line 6.5 o+109 → 6.5 o-102
  • 6:17 PM 6.39 no change
  • 6:45 PM 6.39 PHI lineup: Will James Oct 19 6:38 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: PHI projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (PHI 2.24). The 6.39 total looks high, but most of it comes from COL; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, COL is great (2.83) and PHI is trash (1.53); on the power play, COL is good (0.63) and PHI is trash (0.41). COL faces Joseph Woll, a Mid goalie, grade 60 (-3.0%); PHI faces Mackenzie Blackwood, a Mid goalie, grade 44 (-1.7%). Other factors: COL's team speed adds 5.5%; injuries help COL 3.0%; PHI's team speed costs 4.7%; injuries cost PHI 2.0%. COL 4.16: 1.05 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.79 (its attack ranks #1 of 32, PHI's defense #27); team speed +0.21 (it skates faster than PHI, +5.5%); injuries +0.12 (missing players on both teams, net, +3.0%); power play +0.05 (its power play ranks #17, PHI's penalty kill and penalty habits #23). Holding it back: Joseph Woll in goal -0.12 (a Mid goalie, grade 60, -3.0%). PHI 2.24: 0.87 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.51 (its attack ranks #32 of 32, COL's defense #10); power play -0.17 (its power play ranks #27, COL's penalty kill and penalty habits #2); team speed -0.11 (it skates slower than COL, -4.7%); injuries -0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.0%); Mackenzie Blackwood in goal -0.04 (a Mid goalie, grade 44, -1.7%). The model projects 6.39 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 42% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (COL 2, PHI 3), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.
7:00 PM ETAVOID near miss −0.04
O 6.5 ✗ went over
ANA#9 OFF / #22 DEF23.05●
V. Husso ✓ Trash 10
NYR#22 OFF / #9 DEF53.14●
D. Garand ✓ Mid 54
7 goals · proj 6.19 · P(7+) 48%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
ANA2.020.59-2.6%0.49–+2.3%-1.2%
NYR1.950.69+2.1%0.49–-2.2%+0.5%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
ANA2.07#13 of 321.99#13 of 322.02goals
NYR1.86#26 of 322.13#24 of 321.95goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
ANA0.60#13 of 320.54#7 of 320.59goals
NYR0.62#10 of 320.62#24 of 320.69goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPre-game
ANA
Beckett Sennecke R-3.3%Plays
Leo Carlsson C-3.2%Plays
Cutter Gauthier L-3.1%Plays
Mikael Granlund C-2.0%Plays
Troy Terry R-1.4%OUT · IR
NYR
Mika Zibanejad C-3.1%Plays
Alexis Lafrenière L-2.5%Plays
J.T. Miller C-2.2%Plays
Adam Fox D-1.8%Plays
Pavel Dorofeyev R-1.4%Plays
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-game
ANA
Leo Carlsson C+0.6%Plays
Beckett Sennecke R+0.5%Plays
Cutter Gauthier L+0.5%Plays
Ian Moore D+0.4%OUT · IR
Jackson LaCombe D+0.3%Plays
NYR
Alexis Lafrenière L+0.8%Plays
Adam Fox D+0.7%Plays
Pavel Dorofeyev R+0.7%Plays
Gabe Perreault R+0.5%Plays
Oliver Bjorkstrand R+0.4%Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.11 → 6.19)
  • 12:01 AM 6.11 first run
  • 12:53 AM 6.11 ANA goalie Lukas Dostal: Projected → Likely; NYR goalie Dylan Garand: Projected → Likely
  • 5:33 AM 6.11 Line 6.5 o+104 → 6.5 o+103
  • 11:18 AM 6.11 NYR goalie Dylan Garand: Likely → Confirmed; NYR lineup: Colin Stephenson Oct 19 10:44 AM; Line 6.5 o+103 → 6.5 o+100
  • 12:17 PM 6.19 +0.08ANA goalie: Lukas Dostal → Ville Husso +0.08; Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o-110
  • 1:18 PM 6.19 ANA lineup: Jonny Lazarus Oct 19 1:01 PM; Line 6.5 o-110 → 6.5 o-111
  • 2:17 PM 6.19 Mikael Granlund (ANA) off day-to-day; ANA lineup: Zach Cavanagh Oct 19 1:24 PM; Line 6.5 o-111 → 6.5 o-110
  • 2:45 PM 6.19 no change
  • 3:18 PM 6.19 no change
  • 4:18 PM 6.19 no change
  • 4:38 PM 6.19 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.19 no change
  • 6:17 PM 6.19 no change
  • 6:45 PM 6.19 NYR lineup: Mollie Walker Oct 19 6:36 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: ANA projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (ANA 3.05). ANA just misses the cutoff (by 0.04), and the rule needs both teams over it, so the 6.19 total isn't enough on its own. At 5-on-5, ANA is mid (2.02) and NYR is mid (1.95); on the power play, ANA is mid (0.59) and NYR is great (0.69). ANA faces Dylan Garand, a Mid goalie, grade 54 (-2.6%); NYR faces Ville Husso, a Trash goalie, grade 10 (+2.1%). Other factors: ANA's team speed adds 2.3%; NYR's team speed costs 2.2%. ANA 3.05: 0.05 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: team speed +0.07 (it skates faster than NYR, +2.3%); power play +0.01 (its power play ranks #13, NYR's penalty kill and penalty habits #7). Holding it back: Dylan Garand in goal -0.08 (a Mid goalie, grade 54, -2.6%); injuries -0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.2%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.02 (its attack ranks #13 of 32, NYR's defense #13). NYR 3.14: 0.03 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: power play +0.11 (its power play ranks #10, ANA's penalty kill and penalty habits #24); Ville Husso in goal +0.07 (a Trash goalie, grade 10, +2.1%); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.5%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.09 (its attack ranks #26 of 32, ANA's defense #24); team speed -0.07 (it skates slower than ANA, -2.2%). The model projects 6.19 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 48% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (ANA 2, NYR 5), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

Two rows per game (away, then home). ● = team projected high-scoring. Proj = (5v5 + PP + Oth) × goalie (Gl) × back-to-back (B2B) × team speed (Spd) × injuries (Inj). Hover or tap any underlined label for an explanation.