Wednesday, October 21, 2026

2 games · 0 flags · 1 of 2 went over the line · avg 5.0 goals (projected 6.0) · calls: SLAM – · 1U – · PASS – · AVOID 1 of 2 stayed under

Breakdown (for scoring):greatgoodmidbadtrash
TeamResultGoaliesProjection breakdown
TeamGProjTotal goalsProj totalP(7+)LinePickGoalie5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
FLA#8 OFF / #12 DEF12.92●6O 5.56.0145%5.5 → 5.57:30 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over		A. Schmid ✓ OK 221.820.81-4.7%0.50–-1.4%-0.9%
OTT#17 OFF / #5 DEF53.09●L. Ullmark ✓ Good 761.860.68+0.2%0.49–+1.5%+0.1%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
FLA2.02#17 of 321.84#1 of 321.82goals0.80#1 of 320.56#13 of 320.81goals
OTT1.99#19 of 321.91#7 of 321.86goals0.64#7 of 320.59#21 of 320.68goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-gamePlayerIf outPre-game
FLASam Reinhart C-3.9%PlaysNiko Mikkola D+0.8%Plays
Carter Verhaeghe C-3.2%PlaysCarter Verhaeghe C+0.8%Plays
Matthew Tkachuk L-3.2%PlaysUvis Balinskis D+0.7%OUT · scratch
Sam Bennett C-3.2%PlaysSam Reinhart C+0.7%Plays
Brad Marchand L-1.8%OUT · IRSam Bennett C+0.6%Plays
OTTTim Stützle C-4.1%PlaysJordan Spence D+2.2%Plays
Drake Batherson R-3.4%PlaysDrake Batherson R+1.5%Plays
Dylan Cozens C-2.3%PlaysDylan Cozens C+1.4%Plays
Shane Pinto C-1.4%PlaysTim Stützle C+1.3%Plays
Claude Giroux R-1.3%PlaysTyler Kleven D+1.1%Plays

Also out: OTT: Thomas Chabot -0.3% attack, +0.8% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.02 → 6.01)
  • 12:02 AM 6.02 first run
  • 3:48 AM 6.02 FLA goalie Akira Schmid: Projected → Likely; OTT goalie Linus Ullmark: Projected → Likely
  • 5:05 AM 6.02 no change
  • 11:18 AM 6.01 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Jake Sanderson (OTT) off day-to-day; OTT lineup: Alex Adams Oct 21 11:15 AM; Line 5.5 o-125 → 5.5 o-121
  • 12:17 PM 6.01 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Nikolas Matinpalo (OTT) back in -0.01; Line 5.5 o-121 → 5.5 o-120
  • 1:17 PM 6.01 FLA goalie Akira Schmid: Likely → Confirmed
  • 2:17 PM 6.01 OTT goalie Linus Ullmark: Likely → Confirmed
  • 3:17 PM 6.01 Line 5.5 o-120 → 5.5 o-113
  • 3:22 PM 6.01 Line 5.5 o-113 → 5.5 o-110
  • 4:17 PM 6.01 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.01 no change
  • 6:17 PM 6.01 no change
  • 7:17 PM 6.01 no change
  • 7:26 PM 6.01 no change

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: FLA and OTT project under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (FLA 2.92, OTT 3.09); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, FLA is trash (1.82) and OTT is bad (1.86); on the power play, FLA is great (0.81) and OTT is great (0.68). FLA faces Linus Ullmark, a Good goalie, grade 76 (-4.7%); OTT faces Akira Schmid, an OK goalie, grade 22 (+0.2%). FLA 2.92: 0.20 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: power play +0.24 (its power play ranks #1, OTT's penalty kill and penalty habits #13). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.22 (its attack ranks #17 of 32, OTT's defense #1); Linus Ullmark in goal -0.15 (a Good goalie, grade 76, -4.7%); team speed -0.04 (it skates slower than OTT, -1.4%); injuries -0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.9%). OTT 3.09: 0.02 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: power play +0.10 (its power play ranks #7, FLA's penalty kill and penalty habits #21); team speed +0.05 (it skates faster than FLA, +1.5%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.18 (its attack ranks #19 of 32, FLA's defense #7). The model projects 6.01 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 6 goals (FLA 1, OTT 5), so it went over 5.5 and the call was wrong.
PHI#32 OFF / #18 DEF32.50●4U 6.56.0041%6.5 → 6.57:30 PM ET
AVOID ⚠ lineup
✓ under		D. Vladar ✓ OK 291.600.52-0.1%0.49–-2.5%-1.6%
BUF#15 OFF / #21 DEF13.50●U. Luukkonen ✓ OK 252.270.55-0.5%0.49–+2.9%+3.4%
⚠ Lineup change since 12:02 AM: Rasmus Dahlin now Plays (was Day-to-day, seen 11:18 AM) · BUF +2.1% · projection 5.94 → 6.00
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
PHI1.61#32 of 322.02#15 of 321.60goals0.49#27 of 320.58#20 of 320.52goals
BUF2.15#10 of 322.15#24 of 322.27goals0.52#24 of 320.59#23 of 320.55goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-gamePlayerIf outPre-game
PHITrevor Zegras C-2.1%PlaysJamie Drysdale D+1.2%Plays
Matvei Michkov R-2.0%PlaysOwen Tippett R+1.0%OUT · IR
Travis Konecny R-1.6%OUT · IRNoah Cates L+1.0%Plays
Owen Tippett R-1.5%OUT · IRMatvei Michkov R+0.9%Plays
Tyson Foerster R-0.7%PlaysTrevor Zegras C+0.9%Plays
BUFTage Thompson C-4.7%PlaysNoah Ostlund C+1.2%Plays
Jack Quinn R-2.2%Plays⚠ Rasmus Dahlin D+1.1%Playswas Day-to-day
⚠ Rasmus Dahlin D-2.1%Playswas Day-to-dayZach Benson L+1.1%Plays
Josh Doan R-1.9%PlaysJosh Doan R+1.1%Plays
Jason Zucker L-1.4%PlaysTage Thompson C+0.8%Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (5.94 → 6.00)
  • 12:02 AM 5.94 first run
  • 3:48 AM 5.94 PHI goalie Dan Vladar: Projected → Likely; BUF goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: Projected → Likely; BUF lineup: Rachel Lenzi Oct 21 2:38 AM
  • 5:05 AM 5.94 no change
  • 11:18 AM 6.00 +0.06Injuries / lineup: Sam Carrick (BUF) out, Jason Zucker (BUF) back in +0.06; BUF goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: Likely → Confirmed; Rasmus Dahlin (BUF) off day-to-day; BUF lineup: Rachel Lenzi Oct 21 10:54 AM; Line 5.5 o-139 → 6 o-128
  • 12:17 PM 6.00 PHI goalie Dan Vladar: Likely → Confirmed; PHI lineup: Jackie Spiegel Oct 21 11:56 AM; Line 6 o-128 → 6 o-125
  • 1:17 PM 6.00 Line 6 o-125 → 5.5 o-140
  • 2:17 PM 6.00 no change
  • 3:17 PM 6.00 no change
  • 3:22 PM 6.00 no change
  • 4:17 PM 6.00 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.00 Line 5.5 o-140 → 6 o-124
  • 6:17 PM 6.00 Line 6 o-124 → 6 o-110
  • 7:17 PM 6.00 Injuries / lineup: Michael Bunting (PHI) out, Tyson Foerster (PHI) back in -0.00; Tyson Foerster (PHI) day-to-day; PHI lineup: Will James Oct 21 7:08 PM; BUF lineup: Matthew Fairburn Oct 21 7:11 PM; Line 6 o-110 → 6.5 o-102
  • 7:26 PM 6.00 Tyson Foerster (PHI) off day-to-day; Line 6.5 o-102 → 6.5 o-100

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: PHI projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (PHI 2.50). At 5-on-5, PHI is trash (1.60) and BUF is great (2.27); on the power play, PHI is bad (0.52) and BUF is mid (0.55). PHI faces Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, an OK goalie, grade 25 (-0.1%); BUF faces Dan Vladar, an OK goalie, grade 29 (-0.5%). Other factors: PHI's team speed costs 2.5%; injuries cost PHI 1.6%; BUF's team speed adds 2.9%; injuries help BUF 3.4%. PHI 2.50: 0.61 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.44 (its attack ranks #32 of 32, BUF's defense #15); team speed -0.06 (it skates slower than BUF, -2.5%); power play -0.06 (its power play ranks #27, BUF's penalty kill and penalty habits #20); injuries -0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.6%). BUF 3.50: 0.38 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.22 (its attack ranks #10 of 32, PHI's defense #24); injuries +0.11 (missing players on both teams, net, +3.4%); team speed +0.09 (it skates faster than PHI, +2.9%). Holding it back: power play -0.03 (its power play ranks #24, PHI's penalty kill and penalty habits #23); Dan Vladar in goal -0.02 (an OK goalie, grade 29, -0.5%). The model projects 6.00 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 41% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 5.5 to 6.5, toward the over. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 4 goals (PHI 3, BUF 1), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.
7:30 PM ETAVOID
O 5.5 ✗ went over
FLA#8 OFF / #12 DEF12.92●
A. Schmid ✓ OK 22
OTT#17 OFF / #5 DEF53.09●
L. Ullmark ✓ Good 76
6 goals · proj 6.01 · P(7+) 45%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
FLA1.820.81-4.7%0.50–-1.4%-0.9%
OTT1.860.68+0.2%0.49–+1.5%+0.1%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
FLA2.02#17 of 321.84#1 of 321.82goals
OTT1.99#19 of 321.91#7 of 321.86goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
FLA0.80#1 of 320.56#13 of 320.81goals
OTT0.64#7 of 320.59#21 of 320.68goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPre-game
FLA
Sam Reinhart C-3.9%Plays
Carter Verhaeghe C-3.2%Plays
Matthew Tkachuk L-3.2%Plays
Sam Bennett C-3.2%Plays
Brad Marchand L-1.8%OUT · IR
OTT
Tim Stützle C-4.1%Plays
Drake Batherson R-3.4%Plays
Dylan Cozens C-2.3%Plays
Shane Pinto C-1.4%Plays
Claude Giroux R-1.3%Plays
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-game
FLA
Niko Mikkola D+0.8%Plays
Carter Verhaeghe C+0.8%Plays
Uvis Balinskis D+0.7%OUT · scratch
Sam Reinhart C+0.7%Plays
Sam Bennett C+0.6%Plays
OTT
Jordan Spence D+2.2%Plays
Drake Batherson R+1.5%Plays
Dylan Cozens C+1.4%Plays
Tim Stützle C+1.3%Plays
Tyler Kleven D+1.1%Plays

Also out: OTT: Thomas Chabot -0.3% attack, +0.8% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.02 → 6.01)
  • 12:02 AM 6.02 first run
  • 3:48 AM 6.02 FLA goalie Akira Schmid: Projected → Likely; OTT goalie Linus Ullmark: Projected → Likely
  • 5:05 AM 6.02 no change
  • 11:18 AM 6.01 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Jake Sanderson (OTT) off day-to-day; OTT lineup: Alex Adams Oct 21 11:15 AM; Line 5.5 o-125 → 5.5 o-121
  • 12:17 PM 6.01 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Nikolas Matinpalo (OTT) back in -0.01; Line 5.5 o-121 → 5.5 o-120
  • 1:17 PM 6.01 FLA goalie Akira Schmid: Likely → Confirmed
  • 2:17 PM 6.01 OTT goalie Linus Ullmark: Likely → Confirmed
  • 3:17 PM 6.01 Line 5.5 o-120 → 5.5 o-113
  • 3:22 PM 6.01 Line 5.5 o-113 → 5.5 o-110
  • 4:17 PM 6.01 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.01 no change
  • 6:17 PM 6.01 no change
  • 7:17 PM 6.01 no change
  • 7:26 PM 6.01 no change

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: FLA and OTT project under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (FLA 2.92, OTT 3.09); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, FLA is trash (1.82) and OTT is bad (1.86); on the power play, FLA is great (0.81) and OTT is great (0.68). FLA faces Linus Ullmark, a Good goalie, grade 76 (-4.7%); OTT faces Akira Schmid, an OK goalie, grade 22 (+0.2%). FLA 2.92: 0.20 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: power play +0.24 (its power play ranks #1, OTT's penalty kill and penalty habits #13). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.22 (its attack ranks #17 of 32, OTT's defense #1); Linus Ullmark in goal -0.15 (a Good goalie, grade 76, -4.7%); team speed -0.04 (it skates slower than OTT, -1.4%); injuries -0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.9%). OTT 3.09: 0.02 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: power play +0.10 (its power play ranks #7, FLA's penalty kill and penalty habits #21); team speed +0.05 (it skates faster than FLA, +1.5%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.18 (its attack ranks #19 of 32, FLA's defense #7). The model projects 6.01 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 6 goals (FLA 1, OTT 5), so it went over 5.5 and the call was wrong.
7:30 PM ETAVOID ⚠ lineup
U 6.5 ✓ under
PHI#32 OFF / #18 DEF32.50●
D. Vladar ✓ OK 29
BUF#15 OFF / #21 DEF13.50●
U. Luukkonen ✓ OK 25
4 goals · proj 6.00 · P(7+) 41%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
PHI1.600.52-0.1%0.49–-2.5%-1.6%
BUF2.270.55-0.5%0.49–+2.9%+3.4%
Why this call
⚠ Lineup change since 12:02 AM: Rasmus Dahlin now Plays (was Day-to-day, seen 11:18 AM) · BUF +2.1% · projection 5.94 → 6.00
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
PHI1.61#32 of 322.02#15 of 321.60goals
BUF2.15#10 of 322.15#24 of 322.27goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
PHI0.49#27 of 320.58#20 of 320.52goals
BUF0.52#24 of 320.59#23 of 320.55goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPre-game
PHI
Trevor Zegras C-2.1%Plays
Matvei Michkov R-2.0%Plays
Travis Konecny R-1.6%OUT · IR
Owen Tippett R-1.5%OUT · IR
Tyson Foerster R-0.7%Plays
BUF
Tage Thompson C-4.7%Plays
Jack Quinn R-2.2%Plays
⚠ Rasmus Dahlin D-2.1%Playswas Day-to-day
Josh Doan R-1.9%Plays
Jason Zucker L-1.4%Plays
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-game
PHI
Jamie Drysdale D+1.2%Plays
Owen Tippett R+1.0%OUT · IR
Noah Cates L+1.0%Plays
Matvei Michkov R+0.9%Plays
Trevor Zegras C+0.9%Plays
BUF
Noah Ostlund C+1.2%Plays
⚠ Rasmus Dahlin D+1.1%Playswas Day-to-day
Zach Benson L+1.1%Plays
Josh Doan R+1.1%Plays
Tage Thompson C+0.8%Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (5.94 → 6.00)
  • 12:02 AM 5.94 first run
  • 3:48 AM 5.94 PHI goalie Dan Vladar: Projected → Likely; BUF goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: Projected → Likely; BUF lineup: Rachel Lenzi Oct 21 2:38 AM
  • 5:05 AM 5.94 no change
  • 11:18 AM 6.00 +0.06Injuries / lineup: Sam Carrick (BUF) out, Jason Zucker (BUF) back in +0.06; BUF goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: Likely → Confirmed; Rasmus Dahlin (BUF) off day-to-day; BUF lineup: Rachel Lenzi Oct 21 10:54 AM; Line 5.5 o-139 → 6 o-128
  • 12:17 PM 6.00 PHI goalie Dan Vladar: Likely → Confirmed; PHI lineup: Jackie Spiegel Oct 21 11:56 AM; Line 6 o-128 → 6 o-125
  • 1:17 PM 6.00 Line 6 o-125 → 5.5 o-140
  • 2:17 PM 6.00 no change
  • 3:17 PM 6.00 no change
  • 3:22 PM 6.00 no change
  • 4:17 PM 6.00 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.00 Line 5.5 o-140 → 6 o-124
  • 6:17 PM 6.00 Line 6 o-124 → 6 o-110
  • 7:17 PM 6.00 Injuries / lineup: Michael Bunting (PHI) out, Tyson Foerster (PHI) back in -0.00; Tyson Foerster (PHI) day-to-day; PHI lineup: Will James Oct 21 7:08 PM; BUF lineup: Matthew Fairburn Oct 21 7:11 PM; Line 6 o-110 → 6.5 o-102
  • 7:26 PM 6.00 Tyson Foerster (PHI) off day-to-day; Line 6.5 o-102 → 6.5 o-100

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: PHI projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (PHI 2.50). At 5-on-5, PHI is trash (1.60) and BUF is great (2.27); on the power play, PHI is bad (0.52) and BUF is mid (0.55). PHI faces Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, an OK goalie, grade 25 (-0.1%); BUF faces Dan Vladar, an OK goalie, grade 29 (-0.5%). Other factors: PHI's team speed costs 2.5%; injuries cost PHI 1.6%; BUF's team speed adds 2.9%; injuries help BUF 3.4%. PHI 2.50: 0.61 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.44 (its attack ranks #32 of 32, BUF's defense #15); team speed -0.06 (it skates slower than BUF, -2.5%); power play -0.06 (its power play ranks #27, BUF's penalty kill and penalty habits #20); injuries -0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.6%). BUF 3.50: 0.38 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.22 (its attack ranks #10 of 32, PHI's defense #24); injuries +0.11 (missing players on both teams, net, +3.4%); team speed +0.09 (it skates faster than PHI, +2.9%). Holding it back: power play -0.03 (its power play ranks #24, PHI's penalty kill and penalty habits #23); Dan Vladar in goal -0.02 (an OK goalie, grade 29, -0.5%). The model projects 6.00 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 41% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 5.5 to 6.5, toward the over. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 4 goals (PHI 3, BUF 1), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

Two rows per game (away, then home). ● = team projected high-scoring. Proj = (5v5 + PP + Oth) × goalie (Gl) × back-to-back (B2B) × team speed (Spd) × injuries (Inj). Hover or tap any underlined label for an explanation.