NHL Total Model · 2026-10-27

10:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

VAN#30 OFF / #32 DEF62.98●

L. Meriläinen ✓ Trash 10

ANA#14 OFF / #28 DEF53.91●

L. Dostal ✓ OK 34

11 goals · proj 6.89 · P(7+) 52%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
VAN	1.95	0.63	-0.9%	0.52	–	-2.5%	-0.8%
ANA	2.48	0.75	+1.9%	0.51	–	+2.5%	+0.1%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
VAN	1.76#30 of 32	2.26#29 of 32	1.95goals
ANA	2.06#15 of 32	2.46#32 of 32	2.48goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
VAN	0.56#19 of 32	0.63#26 of 32	0.63goals
ANA	0.57#17 of 32	0.72#32 of 32	0.75goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
VAN
Brock Boeser R	-1.8%	Plays
Elias Pettersson C	-1.7%	Plays
Jake DeBrusk L	-1.7%	Plays
Marco Rossi C	-1.1%	Plays
Linus Karlsson C	-0.9%	OUT · scratch
ANA
Leo Carlsson C	-3.1%	Plays
Cutter Gauthier L	-3.0%	Plays
Beckett Sennecke R	-3.0%	Plays
Mikael Granlund C	-1.9%	Plays
Jackson LaCombe D	-1.3%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
VAN
Linus Karlsson C	+0.7%	OUT · scratch
Jake DeBrusk L	+0.5%	Plays
Tom Willander D	+0.4%	Plays
Marco Rossi C	+0.4%	Plays
Zeev Buium D	+0.4%	Plays
ANA
Leo Carlsson C	+0.7%	Plays
Beckett Sennecke R	+0.5%	Plays
Cutter Gauthier L	+0.4%	Plays
Ian Moore D	+0.4%	OUT · IR
Tyson Hinds D	+0.3%	Plays

Also out: ANA: Troy Terry -1.2% attack, +0.2% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.88 → 6.89)

12:01 AM 6.88 first run
2:24 AM 7.04 +0.17VAN goalie: Leevi Merilainen → Kevin Lankinen +0.17; ANA goalie Lukas Dostal: Projected → Likely
5:34 AM 7.04 Line 6.5 o-120 → 6.5 o-125
11:18 AM 7.06 +0.02Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.02
12:18 PM 7.06 no change
1:18 PM 7.06 no change
2:17 PM 7.06 ANA goalie Lukas Dostal: Likely → Confirmed; ANA lineup: Patrick Present Oct 27 1:22 PM
3:18 PM 7.06 no change
4:08 PM 7.06 no change
4:17 PM 7.06 no change
5:18 PM 7.06 no change
6:17 PM 7.06 no change
6:45 PM 7.06 no change
7:18 PM 7.06 no change
7:45 PM 7.06 no change
7:50 PM 7.06 no change
8:17 PM 7.06 no change
8:45 PM 7.06 Line 6.5 o-125 → 6.5 o-127
9:17 PM 7.06 no change
9:45 PM 6.89 -0.17VAN goalie: Kevin Lankinen → Leevi Merilainen -0.17; Line 6.5 o-127 → 6.5 o-129

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: VAN projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (VAN 2.98). The 6.89 total looks high, but most of it comes from ANA; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, VAN is mid (1.95) and ANA is great (2.48); on the power play, VAN is good (0.63) and ANA is great (0.75). VAN faces Lukas Dostal, an OK goalie, grade 34 (-0.9%); ANA faces Leevi Merilainen, a Trash goalie, grade 10 (+1.9%). Other factors: VAN's team speed costs 2.5%; ANA's team speed adds 2.5%. VAN 2.98: 0.16 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: power play +0.05 (its power play ranks #19, ANA's penalty kill and penalty habits #26). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.09 (its attack ranks #30 of 32, ANA's defense #29); team speed -0.08 (it skates slower than ANA, -2.5%); Lukas Dostal in goal -0.03 (an OK goalie, grade 34, -0.9%); injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.8%). ANA 3.91: 0.77 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.44 (its attack ranks #15 of 32, VAN's defense #32); power play +0.17 (its power play ranks #17, VAN's penalty kill and penalty habits #32); team speed +0.10 (it skates faster than VAN, +2.5%); Leevi Merilainen in goal +0.07 (a Trash goalie, grade 10, +1.9%). The model projects 6.89 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 52% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 11 goals (VAN 6, ANA 5), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

10:30 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

BUF#19 OFF / #20 DEF23.80●

C. Ellis ✓ OK 30

SJS#21 OFF / #31 DEF02.86●

Y. Askarov ✓ Trash 7

2 goals · proj 6.66 · P(7+) 49%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
BUF	2.35	0.68	+2.6%	0.51	–	+3.6%	+0.8%
SJS	1.80	0.69	-0.6%	0.52	–	-3.4%	-1.4%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
BUF	2.11#11 of 32	2.27#30 of 32	2.35goals
SJS	1.80#29 of 32	2.04#16 of 32	1.80goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
BUF	0.52#24 of 32	0.72#31 of 32	0.68goals
SJS	0.63#9 of 32	0.61#22 of 32	0.69goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
BUF
Tage Thompson C	-4.5%	Plays
Jack Quinn R	-2.2%	Plays
Rasmus Dahlin D	-2.2%	Plays
Josh Doan R	-1.8%	Plays
Jason Zucker L	-1.5%	Plays
SJS
Macklin Celebrini C	-5.0%	Plays
Will Smith C	-2.5%	Plays
Tyler Toffoli C	-2.0%	Plays
Kiefer Sherwood L	-0.9%	Plays
Alexander Wennberg C	-0.9%	OUT

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
BUF
Rasmus Dahlin D	+1.2%	Plays
Noah Ostlund C	+1.2%	Plays
Zach Benson L	+1.1%	Plays
Josh Doan R	+1.0%	Plays
Tage Thompson C	+0.8%	Plays
SJS
Macklin Celebrini C	+0.7%	Plays
Will Smith C	+0.6%	Plays
Tyler Toffoli C	+0.6%	Plays
Dmitry Orlov D	+0.6%	Plays
Mason Marchment L	+0.4%	Plays

Also out: SJS: Igor Chernyshov -0.7% attack, +0.4% defense

How the projection moved on game day (6.64 → 6.66)

12:01 AM 6.64 first run
2:24 AM 6.64 BUF goalie Colten Ellis: Projected → Likely; SJS goalie Yaroslav Askarov: Projected → Likely
5:34 AM 6.64 no change
11:18 AM 6.66 +0.02Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.02; Line 6.5 o-120 → 6.5 o-124
12:18 PM 6.66 Line 6.5 o-124 → 6.5 o-125
1:18 PM 6.66 no change
2:17 PM 6.66 SJS goalie Yaroslav Askarov: Likely → Confirmed; SJS lineup: Sheng Peng Oct 27 1:44 PM
3:18 PM 6.66 no change
4:08 PM 6.66 BUF lineup: Rachel Lenzi Oct 27 3:24 PM; Line 6.5 o-125 → 6.5 o-129
4:17 PM 6.66 no change
5:18 PM 6.66 BUF goalie Colten Ellis: Likely → Confirmed
6:17 PM 6.66 no change
6:45 PM 6.66 Line 6.5 o-129 → 6.5 o-130
7:18 PM 6.66 no change
7:45 PM 6.66 no change
7:50 PM 6.66 no change
8:17 PM 6.66 no change
8:45 PM 6.66 Line 6.5 o-130 → 6.5 o-134
9:17 PM 6.66 Line 6.5 o-134 → 6.5 o-140
9:45 PM 6.66 Line 6.5 o-140 → 6.5 o-136
10:18 PM 6.66 Line 6.5 o-136 → 6.5 o-140

AVOID: SJS projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (SJS 2.86). The 6.66 total looks high, but most of it comes from BUF; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, BUF is great (2.35) and SJS is trash (1.80); on the power play, BUF is great (0.68) and SJS is great (0.69). BUF faces Yaroslav Askarov, a Trash goalie, grade 7 (+2.6%); SJS faces Colten Ellis, an OK goalie, grade 30 (-0.6%). Other factors: BUF's team speed adds 3.6%; SJS's team speed costs 3.4%. BUF 3.80: 0.66 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.31 (its attack ranks #11 of 32, SJS's defense #30); team speed +0.13 (it skates faster than SJS, +3.6%); power play +0.10 (its power play ranks #24, SJS's penalty kill and penalty habits #31); Yaroslav Askarov in goal +0.09 (a Trash goalie, grade 7, +2.6%); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.8%). SJS 2.86: 0.28 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: power play +0.11 (its power play ranks #9, BUF's penalty kill and penalty habits #22). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.24 (its attack ranks #29 of 32, BUF's defense #16); team speed -0.10 (it skates slower than BUF, -3.4%); injuries -0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.4%); Colten Ellis in goal -0.02 (an OK goalie, grade 30, -0.6%). The model projects 6.66 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 49% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 2 goals (BUF 2, SJS 0), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

8:00 PM ETAVOID near miss −0.04

U 6.5 ✓ under

BOS#13 OFF / #12 DEF13.05●

J. Swayman ✓ Strong 87

CAR#1 OFF / #2 DEF23.43●

P. Kochetkov ✓ Mid 54

3 goals · proj 6.48 · P(7+) 50%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
BOS	2.11	0.53	-2.5%	0.52	–	-2.7%	+1.9%
CAR	2.45	0.70	-6.8%	0.52	–	+2.3%	-2.2%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
BOS	2.31#5 of 32	1.86#3 of 32	2.11goals
CAR	2.41#2 of 32	2.06#18 of 32	2.45goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
BOS	0.58#15 of 32	0.50#3 of 32	0.53goals
CAR	0.68#4 of 32	0.57#18 of 32	0.70goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
BOS
David Pastrnak R	-4.6%	Plays
Morgan Geekie C	-3.2%	Plays
Pavel Zacha C	-2.4%	Plays
Elias Lindholm C	-1.7%	Plays
Casey Mittelstadt C	-1.1%	Plays
CAR
Sebastian Aho C	-4.5%	Plays
Andrei Svechnikov R	-4.0%	Plays
Nikolaj Ehlers L	-3.5%	Plays
Jackson Blake R	-2.7%	Plays
Logan Stankoven C	-2.4%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
BOS
David Pastrnak R	+0.9%	Plays
Morgan Geekie C	+0.7%	Plays
Mason Lohrei D	+0.7%	Plays
Casey Mittelstadt C	+0.5%	Plays
JJ Peterka R	+0.4%	Plays
CAR
Jackson Blake R	+1.9%	Plays
Shayne Gostisbehere D	+1.6%	Plays
Nikolaj Ehlers L	+1.5%	Plays
Sean Walker D	+1.5%	Plays
Logan Stankoven C	+1.3%	Plays

Also out: CAR: Taylor Hall -1.2% attack, +0.7% defense; Jordan Staal -0.6% attack, +0.3% defense

How the projection moved on game day (6.49 → 6.48)

12:01 AM 6.49 first run
2:24 AM 6.49 BOS goalie Jeremy Swayman: Projected → Likely; CAR goalie Pyotr Kochetkov: Projected → Likely
5:34 AM 6.49 Line 6.5 o-110 → 6.5 o-107
11:18 AM 6.50 +0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.01; Injuries / lineup: Nicolas Deslauriers (CAR) back in +0.00; CAR goalie Pyotr Kochetkov: Likely → Confirmed; CAR lineup: Walt Ruff Oct 27 10:34 AM; Line 6.5 o-107 → 6.5 o+102
12:18 PM 6.50 BOS goalie Jeremy Swayman: Likely → Confirmed; BOS lineup: Jim McBride Oct 27 12:10 PM
1:18 PM 6.50 no change
2:17 PM 6.50 no change
3:18 PM 6.50 no change
4:08 PM 6.51 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Nicolas Deslauriers (CAR) out, Mark Jankowski (CAR) back in +0.01; Mark Jankowski (CAR) day-to-day; CAR lineup: Walt Ruff Oct 27 3:29 PM; Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o+100
4:17 PM 6.51 no change
5:18 PM 6.51 no change
6:17 PM 6.51 Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o+101
6:45 PM 6.51 Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o+102
7:18 PM 6.51 Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o+101
7:45 PM 6.48 -0.03Injuries / lineup: Taylor Hall (CAR) out, Nicolas Deslauriers (CAR) back in -0.03; Mark Jankowski (CAR) off day-to-day; CAR lineup: Walt Ruff Oct 27 7:36 PM
7:50 PM 6.48 no change

AVOID: BOS projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (BOS 3.05). BOS just misses the cutoff (by 0.04), and the rule needs both teams over it, so the 6.48 total isn't enough on its own. At 5-on-5, BOS is good (2.11) and CAR is great (2.45); on the power play, BOS is bad (0.53) and CAR is great (0.70). BOS faces Pyotr Kochetkov, a Mid goalie, grade 54 (-2.5%); CAR faces Jeremy Swayman, a Strong goalie, grade 87 (-6.8%). Other factors: BOS's team speed costs 2.7%; injuries help BOS 1.9%; CAR's team speed adds 2.3%; injuries cost CAR 2.2%. BOS 3.05: 0.09 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.06 (its attack ranks #5 of 32, CAR's defense #3); injuries +0.06 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.9%). Holding it back: team speed -0.08 (it skates slower than CAR, -2.7%); Pyotr Kochetkov in goal -0.08 (a Mid goalie, grade 54, -2.5%); power play -0.05 (its power play ranks #15, CAR's penalty kill and penalty habits #3). CAR 3.43: 0.28 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.40 (its attack ranks #2 of 32, BOS's defense #18); power play +0.12 (its power play ranks #4, BOS's penalty kill and penalty habits #18); team speed +0.08 (it skates faster than BOS, +2.3%). Holding it back: Jeremy Swayman in goal -0.25 (a Strong goalie, grade 87, -6.8%); injuries -0.08 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.2%). The model projects 6.48 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 50% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 3 goals (BOS 1, CAR 2), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

9:00 PM ETPASS

U 6.5 ✓ under
paper L -1.00u

MIN#2 OFF / #3 DEF33.13●

J. Wallstedt ✓ Good 64

UTA#5 OFF / #9 DEF13.35●

K. Vejmelka ✓ OK 31

4 goals · proj 6.47 · P(7+) 50%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
MIN	1.98	0.67	-0.7%	0.52	–	-2.9%	+2.0%
UTA	2.10	0.75	-3.3%	0.52	–	+3.2%	-0.3%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
MIN	2.13#9 of 32	1.90#7 of 32	1.98goals
UTA	2.26#7 of 32	1.89#6 of 32	2.10goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
MIN	0.65#7 of 32	0.58#19 of 32	0.67goals
UTA	0.72#3 of 32	0.57#17 of 32	0.75goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
MIN
Kirill Kaprizov L	-6.1%	Plays
Matt Boldy L	-4.8%	Plays
Joel Eriksson Ek C	-2.9%	Plays
Quinn Hughes D	-2.8%	Plays
Ryan Hartman R	-0.8%	Plays
UTA
Dylan Guenther R	-4.0%	Plays
Clayton Keller R	-3.8%	Plays
Nick Schmaltz C	-3.4%	Plays
Logan Cooley C	-2.6%	Plays
Mikhail Sergachev D	-1.6%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
MIN
Quinn Hughes D	+2.1%	Plays
Kirill Kaprizov L	+1.7%	Plays
Matt Boldy L	+1.2%	Plays
Bobby Brink R	+1.1%	Plays
Jared Spurgeon D	+0.9%	Plays
UTA
Clayton Keller R	+1.6%	Plays
Nate Schmidt D	+1.4%	Plays
Barrett Hayton C	+1.1%	Plays
Nick Schmaltz C	+1.0%	Plays
Dylan Guenther R	+0.9%	Plays

Also out: UTA: John Marino +0.2% attack, +0.8% defense; Michael Carcone -0.6% attack, +0.7% defense

How the projection moved on game day (6.45 → 6.47)

12:01 AM 6.45 first run
2:24 AM 6.45 MIN goalie Jesper Wallstedt: Projected → Likely; UTA goalie Karel Vejmelka: Projected → Likely
5:34 AM 6.45 no change
11:18 AM 6.46 +0.02Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.02; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o-101
12:18 PM 6.46 Line 6.5 o-101 → 6.5 o-100
1:18 PM 6.47 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Daniil But (UTA) out +0.01; MIN goalie Jesper Wallstedt: Likely → Confirmed; UTA goalie Karel Vejmelka: Likely → Confirmed; UTA lineup: Cole Bagley Oct 27 12:59 PM
2:17 PM 6.47 no change
3:18 PM 6.47 no change
4:08 PM 6.47 Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o-101
4:17 PM 6.47 no change
5:18 PM 6.47 Line 6.5 o-101 → 6.5 o-100
6:17 PM 6.47 no change
6:45 PM 6.47 no change
7:18 PM 6.47 no change
7:45 PM 6.47 no change
7:50 PM 6.47 no change
8:17 PM 6.47 no change
8:45 PM 6.47 no change

PASS: both teams project as high-scoring (MIN 3.13, UTA 3.35; cutoff 3.10) and the line is 6.5, but neither is great at 5-on-5 (MIN mid, UTA good) and they aren't both good, so there's no team to carry the over. At 5-on-5, MIN is mid (1.98) and UTA is good (2.10); on the power play, MIN is great (0.67) and UTA is great (0.75). MIN faces Karel Vejmelka, an OK goalie, grade 31 (-0.7%); UTA faces Jesper Wallstedt, a Good goalie, grade 64 (-3.3%). Other factors: MIN's team speed costs 2.9%; injuries help MIN 2.0%; UTA's team speed adds 3.2%. MIN 3.13: 0.02 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: power play +0.10 (its power play ranks #7, UTA's penalty kill and penalty habits #19); injuries +0.06 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.0%). Holding it back: team speed -0.09 (it skates slower than UTA, -2.9%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.06 (its attack ranks #9 of 32, UTA's defense #7); Karel Vejmelka in goal -0.02 (an OK goalie, grade 31, -0.7%). UTA 3.35: 0.20 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: power play +0.17 (its power play ranks #3, MIN's penalty kill and penalty habits #17); team speed +0.11 (it skates faster than MIN, +3.2%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.05 (its attack ranks #7 of 32, MIN's defense #6). Holding it back: Jesper Wallstedt in goal -0.11 (a Good goalie, grade 64, -3.3%). The model projects 6.47 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 50% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Flagged games like this went over only 47% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 4 goals (MIN 3, UTA 1), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

8:00 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

FLA#11 OFF / #11 DEF53.36●

A. Schmid ✓ Trash 18

WPG#25 OFF / #18 DEF12.87●

C. Stevenson ✓ OK 29

6 goals · proj 6.24 · P(7+) 46%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
FLA	2.04	0.77	-0.5%	0.52	–	+1.3%	+0.5%
WPG	1.80	0.60	+0.8%	0.52	–	-1.7%	-0.5%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
FLA	1.94#23 of 32	2.14#22 of 32	2.04goals
WPG	1.93#24 of 32	1.90#8 of 32	1.80goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
FLA	0.78#1 of 32	0.55#11 of 32	0.77goals
WPG	0.55#20 of 32	0.60#20 of 32	0.60goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
FLA
Sam Reinhart C	-3.7%	Plays
Matthew Tkachuk L	-3.3%	Plays
Carter Verhaeghe C	-3.1%	Plays
Sam Bennett C	-3.0%	Plays
Brady Tkachuk L	-1.8%	Plays
WPG
Kyle Connor L	-5.0%	Plays
Mark Scheifele C	-4.5%	Plays
Gabriel Vilardi C	-2.9%	Plays
Cole Perfetti C	-1.7%	Plays
Josh Morrissey D	-1.1%	OUT · IR

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
FLA
Niko Mikkola D	+0.9%	Plays
Carter Verhaeghe C	+0.8%	Plays
Sam Reinhart C	+0.7%	Plays
Sam Bennett C	+0.7%	Plays
Brady Tkachuk L	+0.7%	Plays
WPG
Cole Perfetti C	+1.4%	Plays
Josh Morrissey D	+0.8%	OUT · IR
Nino Niederreiter R	+0.8%	OUT · scratch
Alex Iafallo L	+0.7%	Plays
Gabriel Vilardi C	+0.6%	Plays

Also out: FLA: Brad Marchand -1.6% attack

How the projection moved on game day (6.13 → 6.24)

12:01 AM 6.13 first run
2:24 AM 6.13 FLA goalie Akira Schmid: Projected → Likely; WPG goalie Stuart Skinner: Projected → Likely; Line 6 o-127 → 5.5 o-143
5:34 AM 6.13 Line 5.5 o-143 → 6 o-123
11:18 AM 6.14 +0.02Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.02; Line 6 o-123 → 5.5 o-139
12:18 PM 6.24 +0.09WPG goalie: Stuart Skinner → Clay Stevenson +0.07; Injuries / lineup: Nino Niederreiter (WPG) out +0.02; WPG lineup: Ken Wiebe Oct 27 12:08 PM; Line 5.5 o-139 → 6 o-118
1:18 PM 6.24 FLA lineup: Jameson Olive Oct 27 12:57 PM
2:17 PM 6.24 FLA goalie Akira Schmid: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6 o-118 → 6.5 o-108
3:18 PM 6.24 no change
4:08 PM 6.24 Line 6.5 o-108 → 6.5 o-105
4:17 PM 6.24 no change
5:18 PM 6.24 no change
6:17 PM 6.24 no change
6:45 PM 6.24 Line 6.5 o-105 → 6.5 o+104
7:18 PM 6.24 no change
7:45 PM 6.24 no change
7:50 PM 6.24 no change

AVOID: WPG projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (WPG 2.87). The 6.24 total looks high, but most of it comes from FLA; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, FLA is mid (2.04) and WPG is trash (1.80); on the power play, FLA is great (0.77) and WPG is good (0.60). FLA faces Clay Stevenson, an OK goalie, grade 29 (-0.5%); WPG faces Akira Schmid, a Trash goalie, grade 18 (+0.8%). FLA 3.36: 0.22 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: power play +0.19 (its power play ranks #1, WPG's penalty kill and penalty habits #11); team speed +0.04 (it skates faster than WPG, +1.3%); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.5%). Holding it back: Clay Stevenson in goal -0.02 (an OK goalie, grade 29, -0.5%). WPG 2.87: 0.27 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: Akira Schmid in goal +0.02 (a Trash goalie, grade 18, +0.8%); power play +0.02 (its power play ranks #20, FLA's penalty kill and penalty habits #20). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.24 (its attack ranks #24 of 32, FLA's defense #8); team speed -0.05 (it skates slower than FLA, -1.7%); injuries -0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.5%). The model projects 6.24 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 46% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 6 goals (FLA 5, WPG 1), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

10:00 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

OTT#12 OFF / #5 DEF12.96●

J. Johansson ✓ Trash 2

VGK#8 OFF / #4 DEF43.23●

A. Hill ✓ Trash 18

5 goals · proj 6.18 · P(7+) 47%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
OTT	1.94	0.44	+0.8%	0.52	–	+1.5%	-0.2%
VGK	1.95	0.64	+4.4%	0.52	–	-1.3%	+0.9%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
OTT	2.11#12 of 32	1.87#5 of 32	1.94goals
VGK	2.17#8 of 32	1.83#1 of 32	1.95goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
OTT	0.64#8 of 32	0.39#1 of 32	0.44goals
VGK	0.65#6 of 32	0.55#12 of 32	0.64goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
OTT
Tim Stützle C	-4.3%	Plays
Drake Batherson R	-3.6%	Plays
Dylan Cozens C	-2.4%	Plays
Shane Pinto C	-1.5%	Plays
Claude Giroux R	-1.4%	Plays
VGK
Jack Eichel C	-4.6%	Plays
Mark Stone R	-4.1%	Plays
Mitch Marner R	-3.5%	Plays
Tomas Hertl C	-3.5%	Plays
Ivan Barbashev L	-1.9%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
OTT
Jordan Spence D	+2.1%	Plays
Drake Batherson R	+1.5%	Plays
Dylan Cozens C	+1.4%	Plays
Tim Stützle C	+1.2%	Plays
Tyler Kleven D	+1.2%	Plays
VGK
Tomas Hertl C	+1.6%	Plays
Shea Theodore D	+1.4%	Plays
Mark Stone R	+1.3%	Plays
Ivan Barbashev L	+1.2%	Plays
Noah Hanifin D	+1.1%	Plays

Also out: OTT: Thomas Chabot -0.3% attack, +0.7% defense

How the projection moved on game day (6.28 → 6.18)

12:01 AM 6.28 first run
2:24 AM 6.28 OTT goalie Samuel Ersson: Projected → Likely; VGK goalie Carter Hart: Projected → Likely; Line 6.5 o-105 → 6.5 o-110
5:34 AM 6.28 no change
11:18 AM 6.30 +0.02Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.02; Line 6.5 o-110 → 6.5 o-111
12:18 PM 6.30 no change
1:18 PM 6.30 no change
2:17 PM 6.21 -0.09OTT goalie: Samuel Ersson → Jonas Johansson -0.09; Line 6.5 o-111 → 6.5 o-115
3:18 PM 6.18 -0.02VGK goalie: Carter Hart → Adin Hill -0.02; OTT lineup: @Senators Oct 27 2:24 PM; VGK lineup: Danny Webster Oct 27 2:52 PM
4:08 PM 6.18 VGK lineup: Jesse Granger Oct 27 3:27 PM
4:17 PM 6.18 Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-116
5:18 PM 6.18 no change
6:17 PM 6.18 Line 6.5 o-116 → 6.5 o-115
6:45 PM 6.18 Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-111
7:18 PM 6.18 no change
7:45 PM 6.18 no change
7:50 PM 6.18 no change
8:17 PM 6.18 VGK lineup: Projected Oct 27 8:01 PM
8:45 PM 6.18 Line 6.5 o-111 → 6.5 o-108
9:17 PM 6.18 no change
9:45 PM 6.18 VGK lineup: Danny Webster Oct 27 9:39 PM

AVOID: OTT projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (OTT 2.96). The 6.18 total looks high, but most of it comes from VGK; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, OTT is bad (1.94) and VGK is mid (1.95); on the power play, OTT is trash (0.44) and VGK is good (0.64). OTT faces Adin Hill, a Trash goalie, grade 18 (+0.8%); VGK faces Jonas Johansson, a Trash goalie, grade 2 (+4.4%). OTT 2.96: 0.19 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: team speed +0.04 (it skates faster than VGK, +1.5%); Adin Hill in goal +0.02 (a Trash goalie, grade 18, +0.8%). Holding it back: power play -0.13 (its power play ranks #8, VGK's penalty kill and penalty habits #1); 5-on-5 matchup -0.11 (its attack ranks #12 of 32, VGK's defense #5). VGK 3.23: 0.09 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: Jonas Johansson in goal +0.14 (a Trash goalie, grade 2, +4.4%); power play +0.06 (its power play ranks #6, OTT's penalty kill and penalty habits #12); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.9%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.09 (its attack ranks #8 of 32, OTT's defense #1); team speed -0.04 (it skates slower than OTT, -1.3%). The model projects 6.18 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 47% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (OTT 1, VGK 4), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

8:00 PM ETAVOID

O 5.5 ✗ went over

NYI#24 OFF / #16 DEF43.16●

S. Varlamov ✓ Mid 58

NSH#16 OFF / #21 DEF32.94●

J. Saros ✓ Mid 41

7 goals · proj 6.10 · P(7+) 46%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
NYI	2.10	0.51	-1.4%	0.52	–	+4.5%	-2.0%
NSH	1.89	0.72	-2.8%	0.53	–	-4.5%	+1.2%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NYI	1.97#19 of 32	2.17#25 of 32	2.10goals
NSH	1.82#27 of 32	2.12#20 of 32	1.89goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NYI	0.53#22 of 32	0.53#8 of 32	0.51goals
NSH	0.62#11 of 32	0.64#27 of 32	0.72goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
NYI
Bo Horvat C	-2.9%	Plays
Matthew Schaefer D	-2.1%	Plays
Mathew Barzal C	-1.5%	OUT · IR
Brayden Schenn C	-1.1%	Plays
Simon Holmstrom R	-0.9%	Plays
NSH
Filip Forsberg L	-4.2%	Plays
Steven Stamkos C	-4.0%	Plays
Ryan O'Reilly C	-3.2%	Plays
Roman Josi D	-1.6%	Plays
Jonathan Marchessault R	-1.3%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
NYI
Matthew Schaefer D	+1.1%	Plays
Emil Heineman L	+0.7%	Plays
Mathew Barzal C	+0.6%	OUT · IR
Ondrej Palat L	+0.6%	Plays
Brayden Schenn C	+0.5%	Plays
NSH
Filip Forsberg L	+0.7%	Plays
Steven Stamkos C	+0.5%	Plays
Adam Wilsby D	+0.5%	Plays
Ross Colton C	+0.4%	Plays
Roman Josi D	+0.4%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (6.08 → 6.10)

12:01 AM 6.08 first run
2:24 AM 6.08 NYI goalie Semyon Varlamov: Projected → Likely; NSH goalie Juuse Saros: Projected → Likely
5:34 AM 6.08 no change
11:18 AM 6.09 +0.02Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.02
12:18 PM 6.09 NSH lineup: Nick Kieser Oct 27 12:03 PM
1:18 PM 6.09 NYI goalie Semyon Varlamov: Likely → Confirmed; NSH goalie Juuse Saros: Likely → Confirmed
2:17 PM 6.10 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Kyle MacLean (NYI) out +0.01
3:18 PM 6.10 no change
4:08 PM 6.10 no change
4:17 PM 6.10 no change
5:18 PM 6.10 no change
6:17 PM 6.10 no change
6:45 PM 6.10 no change
7:18 PM 6.10 no change
7:45 PM 6.10 no change
7:50 PM 6.10 no change

AVOID: NSH projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (NSH 2.94); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. The 6.10 total looks high, but most of it comes from NYI; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, NYI is good (2.10) and NSH is bad (1.89); on the power play, NYI is bad (0.51) and NSH is great (0.72). NYI faces Juuse Saros, a Mid goalie, grade 41 (-1.4%); NSH faces Semyon Varlamov, a Mid goalie, grade 58 (-2.8%). Other factors: NYI's team speed adds 4.5%; injuries cost NYI 2.0%; NSH's team speed costs 4.5%. NYI 3.16: 0.01 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: team speed +0.14 (it skates faster than NSH, +4.5%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.06 (its attack ranks #19 of 32, NSH's defense #25). Holding it back: power play -0.07 (its power play ranks #22, NSH's penalty kill and penalty habits #8); injuries -0.06 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.0%); Juuse Saros in goal -0.04 (a Mid goalie, grade 41, -1.4%). NSH 2.94: 0.20 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: power play +0.14 (its power play ranks #11, NYI's penalty kill and penalty habits #27); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.2%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.15 (its attack ranks #27 of 32, NYI's defense #20); team speed -0.14 (it skates slower than NYI, -4.5%); Semyon Varlamov in goal -0.09 (a Mid goalie, grade 58, -2.8%). The model projects 6.10 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 46% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (NYI 4, NSH 3), so it went over 5.5 and the call was wrong.

8:00 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

MTL#15 OFF / #22 DEF23.11●

J. Fowler ✓ Good 74

STL#27 OFF / #14 DEF02.94●

J. Binnington ✓ Trash 5

2 goals · proj 6.05 · P(7+) 46%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
MTL	2.15	0.44	+3.3%	0.51	–	+3.0%	-5.7%
STL	1.95	0.61	-4.4%	0.53	–	-2.8%	+2.7%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
MTL	2.12#10 of 32	2.06#17 of 32	2.15goals
STL	1.95#22 of 32	2.03#15 of 32	1.95goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
MTL	0.48#27 of 32	0.50#4 of 32	0.44goals
STL	0.48#29 of 32	0.70#30 of 32	0.61goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
MTL
Cole Caufield R	-5.2%	Plays
Nick Suzuki C	-4.7%	OUT
Juraj Slafkovský L	-3.2%	Plays
Lane Hutson D	-2.4%	Plays
Ivan Demidov R	-1.6%	OUT · IR
STL
Robert Thomas C	-2.7%	Plays
Dylan Holloway L	-2.1%	Plays
Jimmy Snuggerud R	-2.0%	Plays
Pavel Buchnevich L	-1.3%	Plays
Jake Neighbours L	-1.1%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
MTL
Lane Hutson D	+1.9%	Plays
Zachary Bolduc R	+1.3%	Plays
Cole Caufield R	+1.2%	Plays
Nick Suzuki C	+1.0%	OUT
Juraj Slafkovský L	+0.8%	Plays
STL
Dylan Holloway L	+0.9%	Plays
Jake Neighbours L	+0.7%	Plays
Dalibor Dvorsky R	+0.7%	Plays
Jimmy Snuggerud R	+0.7%	Plays
Cam Fowler D	+0.6%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (5.85 → 6.05)

12:01 AM 5.85 first run
2:24 AM 5.89 +0.04MTL goalie: Jacob Fowler → Jakub Dobes +0.04; STL goalie Joel Hofer: Projected → Likely
5:34 AM 5.85 -0.04MTL goalie: Jakub Dobes → Jacob Fowler -0.04
11:18 AM 5.87 +0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.02; Line 6.5 o-104 → 6.5 o+108
12:18 PM 6.06 +0.19STL goalie: Joel Hofer → Jordan Binnington +0.19; STL lineup: Matthew DeFranks Oct 27 12:02 PM; Line 6.5 o+108 → 6.5 o+102
1:18 PM 6.06 STL goalie Jordan Binnington: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o+103
2:17 PM 6.05 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Arber Xhekaj (MTL) out, Alexey Toropchenko (STL) back in -0.01; MTL goalie Jacob Fowler: Likely → Confirmed; MTL lineup: Marc Denis Oct 27 1:22 PM; Alexey Toropchenko (STL) day-to-day; Line 6.5 o+103 → 6.5 o+104
3:18 PM 6.05 no change
4:08 PM 6.05 no change
4:17 PM 6.05 no change
5:18 PM 6.05 no change
6:17 PM 6.05 Line 6.5 o+104 → 6.5 o+103
6:45 PM 6.05 Line 6.5 o+103 → 6.5 o+104
7:18 PM 6.05 Line 6.5 o+104 → 6.5 o+105
7:45 PM 6.05 no change
7:50 PM 6.05 no change

AVOID: STL projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (STL 2.94). The 6.05 total looks high, but most of it comes from MTL; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, MTL is good (2.15) and STL is mid (1.95); on the power play, MTL is trash (0.44) and STL is good (0.61). MTL faces Jordan Binnington, a Trash goalie, grade 5 (+3.3%); STL faces Jacob Fowler, a Good goalie, grade 74 (-4.4%). Other factors: MTL's team speed adds 3.0%; injuries cost MTL 5.7%; STL's team speed costs 2.8%; injuries help STL 2.7%. MTL 3.11: 0.04 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.10 (its attack ranks #10 of 32, STL's defense #17); Jordan Binnington in goal +0.10 (a Trash goalie, grade 5, +3.3%); team speed +0.10 (it skates faster than STL, +3.0%). Holding it back: injuries -0.19 (missing players on both teams, net, -5.7%); power play -0.14 (its power play ranks #27, STL's penalty kill and penalty habits #4). STL 2.94: 0.20 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: injuries +0.08 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.7%); power play +0.03 (its power play ranks #29, MTL's penalty kill and penalty habits #30). Holding it back: Jacob Fowler in goal -0.14 (a Good goalie, grade 74, -4.4%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.10 (its attack ranks #22 of 32, MTL's defense #15); team speed -0.08 (it skates slower than MTL, -2.8%). The model projects 6.05 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 46% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 2 goals (MTL 2, STL 0), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

7:00 PM ETAVOID

O 5.5 ✗ went over

CBJ#23 OFF / #26 DEF43.24●

C. Talbot ✓ OK 26

PHI#31 OFF / #19 DEF32.68●

D. Vladar ✓ OK 37

7 goals · proj 5.92 · P(7+) 42%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
CBJ	2.12	0.51	-1.2%	0.52	–	+1.1%	+3.2%
PHI	1.67	0.58	-0.2%	0.52	–	-0.9%	-2.1%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CBJ	1.99#18 of 32	2.17#23 of 32	2.12goals
PHI	1.64#32 of 32	2.07#19 of 32	1.67goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CBJ	0.45#31 of 32	0.63#25 of 32	0.51goals
PHI	0.52#23 of 32	0.62#23 of 32	0.58goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
CBJ
Zach Werenski D	-2.5%	Plays
Adam Fantilli C	-2.4%	Plays
Charlie Coyle C	-1.4%	Plays
Sean Monahan C	-1.3%	Plays
Kent Johnson C	-1.3%	Plays
PHI
Matvei Michkov R	-2.2%	Plays
Trevor Zegras C	-2.2%	Plays
Travis Konecny R	-1.4%	OUT · IR
Owen Tippett R	-1.4%	OUT · IR
Tyson Foerster R	-0.8%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
CBJ
Kent Johnson C	+1.1%	Plays
Damon Severson D	+1.1%	Plays
Adam Fantilli C	+0.8%	Plays
Zach Werenski D	+0.6%	Plays
Denton Mateychuk D	+0.5%	Plays
PHI
Jamie Drysdale D	+1.2%	Plays
Noah Cates L	+1.0%	Plays
Matvei Michkov R	+1.0%	Plays
Trevor Zegras C	+0.9%	Plays
Owen Tippett R	+0.9%	OUT · IR

How the projection moved on game day (5.78 → 5.92)

12:01 AM 5.78 first run
2:24 AM 5.78 CBJ goalie Jet Greaves: Projected → Likely; PHI goalie Dan Vladar: Projected → Likely; Line 5.5 o-118 → 5.5 o-116
5:34 AM 5.82 +0.04Injuries / lineup: Dante Fabbro (CBJ) out, Isac Lundestrom (CBJ) out +0.04; Line 5.5 o-116 → 5.5 o-115
11:18 AM 5.84 +0.02Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.02; PHI goalie Dan Vladar: Likely → Confirmed
12:18 PM 5.94 +0.10CBJ goalie: Jet Greaves → Cam Talbot +0.14; Injuries / lineup: Cam York (PHI) back in -0.04; PHI lineup: Projected Oct 27 12:01 PM; Line 5.5 o-115 → 5.5 o-117
1:18 PM 5.94 Line 5.5 o-117 → 5.5 o-118
2:17 PM 5.92 -0.02Injuries / lineup: Dante Fabbro (CBJ) back in -0.02; Dante Fabbro (CBJ) day-to-day; Line 5.5 o-118 → 5.5 o-117
3:18 PM 5.92 no change
4:08 PM 5.92 no change
4:17 PM 5.92 no change
5:18 PM 5.92 no change
6:17 PM 5.92 no change
6:45 PM 5.92 PHI lineup: Jordan Hall Oct 27 6:38 PM

AVOID: PHI projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (PHI 2.68); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, CBJ is good (2.12) and PHI is trash (1.67); on the power play, CBJ is bad (0.51) and PHI is mid (0.58). CBJ faces Dan Vladar, an OK goalie, grade 37 (-1.2%); PHI faces Cam Talbot, an OK goalie, grade 26 (-0.2%). Other factors: injuries help CBJ 3.2%; injuries cost PHI 2.1%. CBJ 3.24: 0.10 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: injuries +0.10 (missing players on both teams, net, +3.2%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.07 (its attack ranks #18 of 32, PHI's defense #23); team speed +0.03 (it skates faster than PHI, +1.1%). Holding it back: power play -0.07 (its power play ranks #31, PHI's penalty kill and penalty habits #25); Dan Vladar in goal -0.04 (an OK goalie, grade 37, -1.2%). PHI 2.68: 0.46 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.38 (its attack ranks #32 of 32, CBJ's defense #19); injuries -0.06 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.1%); team speed -0.03 (it skates slower than CBJ, -0.9%). The model projects 5.92 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 42% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (CBJ 4, PHI 3), so it went over 5.5 and the call was wrong.

8:00 PM ETAVOID

U 5.5 ✓ under

LAK#28 OFF / #15 DEF12.77●

A. Forsberg ✓ Mid 47

CHI#32 OFF / #27 DEF22.83●

S. Knight ✓ Mid 50

3 goals · proj 5.61 · P(7+) 41%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
LAK	2.12	0.46	-2.2%	0.53	-8.0%	+0.2%	-1.0%
CHI	1.69	0.45	-1.9%	0.51	+6.5%	-0.4%	+2.6%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
LAK	1.82#26 of 32	2.37#31 of 32	2.12goals
CHI	1.76#31 of 32	1.96#12 of 32	1.69goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
LAK	0.47#30 of 32	0.54#9 of 32	0.46goals
CHI	0.44#32 of 32	0.57#15 of 32	0.45goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
LAK
Artemi Panarin L	-4.1%	Plays
Adrian Kempe R	-3.4%	Plays
Quinton Byfield R	-1.2%	Plays
Kevin Fiala L	-1.0%	OUT · IR
Alex Laferriere R	-1.0%	Plays
CHI
Tyler Bertuzzi L	-2.3%	Plays
Connor Bedard C	-1.9%	Plays
Patrick Kane R	-1.2%	Plays
Frank Nazar C	-0.7%	Plays
Ryan Donato C	-0.7%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
LAK
Brandt Clarke D	+1.7%	Plays
Artemi Panarin L	+1.1%	Plays
Adrian Kempe R	+1.1%	Plays
Alex Laferriere R	+0.9%	Plays
Drew Doughty D	+0.8%	OUT · IR
CHI
Tyler Bertuzzi L	+0.4%	Plays
Andrew Mangiapane L	+0.4%	OUT · scratch
Sam Rinzel D	+0.3%	Plays
Patrick Kane R	+0.3%	Plays
Ryan Donato C	+0.3%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (5.53 → 5.61)

12:01 AM 5.53 first run
2:24 AM 5.53 LAK goalie: Darcy Kuemper → Anton Forsberg +0.00; CHI goalie Spencer Knight: Projected → Likely
5:34 AM 5.53 no change
11:18 AM 5.57 +0.04Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.04; LAK lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-26); Line 5.5 o-136 → 5.5 o-137
12:18 PM 5.58 Injuries / lineup: Andrew Mangiapane (CHI) out, Oliver Moore (CHI) back in +0.00; CHI goalie Spencer Knight: Likely → Confirmed; CHI lineup: Ben Pope Oct 27 12:09 PM; Line 5.5 o-137 → 5.5 o-135
1:18 PM 5.58 Line 5.5 o-135 → 5.5 o-137
2:17 PM 5.58 Line 5.5 o-137 → 5.5 o-135
3:18 PM 5.58 no change
4:08 PM 5.58 no change
4:17 PM 5.58 no change
5:18 PM 5.58 no change
6:17 PM 5.58 no change
6:45 PM 5.58 no change
7:18 PM 5.58 no change
7:45 PM 5.61 +0.03Injuries / lineup: Corey Perry (LAK) out, Drew Doughty (LAK) out +0.03; LAK goalie Anton Forsberg: Likely → Confirmed; LAK lineup: Zach Dooley Oct 27 7:43 PM
7:50 PM 5.61 no change

AVOID: LAK and CHI project under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (LAK 2.77, CHI 2.83); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, LAK is good (2.12) and CHI is trash (1.69); on the power play, LAK is trash (0.46) and CHI is trash (0.45). LAK faces Spencer Knight, a Mid goalie, grade 50 (-2.2%); CHI faces Anton Forsberg, a Mid goalie, grade 47 (-1.9%). Other factors: LAK played yesterday (-8%); CHI's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); injuries help CHI 2.6%. LAK 2.77: 0.37 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.07 (its attack ranks #26 of 32, CHI's defense #31). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.24 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); power play -0.12 (its power play ranks #30, CHI's penalty kill and penalty habits #9); Spencer Knight in goal -0.07 (a Mid goalie, grade 50, -2.2%); injuries -0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.0%). CHI 2.83: 0.31 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.17 (LAK played yesterday, +6.5%); injuries +0.07 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.6%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.36 (its attack ranks #31 of 32, LAK's defense #12); power play -0.13 (its power play ranks #32, LAK's penalty kill and penalty habits #15); Anton Forsberg in goal -0.05 (a Mid goalie, grade 47, -1.9%); team speed -0.01 (it skates slower than LAK, -0.4%). The model projects 5.61 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 41% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 3 goals (LAK 1, CHI 2), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.

8:00 PM ETAVOID

O 5.5 ✗ went over

NJD#6 OFF / #6 DEF52.92●

C. Hellebuyck ✓ Strong 94

DAL#19 OFF / #1 DEF12.65●

C. DeSmith ✓ Good 74

6 goals · proj 5.57 · P(7+) 40%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
NJD	1.87	0.60	-4.5%	0.52	–	+0.9%	+1.2%
DAL	1.79	0.54	-8.5%	0.53	–	-1.5%	+2.5%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NJD	2.08#13 of 32	1.83#2 of 32	1.87goals
DAL	1.96#21 of 32	1.86#4 of 32	1.79goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NJD	0.58#16 of 32	0.57#16 of 32	0.60goals
DAL	0.63#10 of 32	0.48#2 of 32	0.54goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
NJD
Jack Hughes C	-4.1%	Plays
Nico Hischier C	-3.5%	Plays
Jesper Bratt L	-3.4%	Plays
Timo Meier R	-1.8%	Plays
Dougie Hamilton D	-1.4%	Plays
DAL
Jason Robertson L	-5.5%	Plays
Wyatt Johnston C	-4.3%	Plays
Mikko Rantanen R	-4.2%	Plays
Roope Hintz C	-2.7%	Plays
Miro Heiskanen D	-1.6%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
NJD
Jack Hughes C	+1.2%	Plays
Luke Hughes D	+1.2%	Plays
Dougie Hamilton D	+1.0%	Plays
Jesper Bratt L	+1.0%	Plays
Arseny Gritsyuk R	+1.0%	Plays
DAL
Jason Robertson L	+1.6%	Plays
Miro Heiskanen D	+1.4%	Plays
Mikko Rantanen R	+1.2%	Plays
Thomas Harley D	+1.1%	Plays
Nils Lundkvist D	+1.1%	Plays

Also out: DAL: Matt Duchene -1.2% attack, +0.2% defense

How the projection moved on game day (5.70 → 5.57)

12:01 AM 5.70 first run
2:24 AM 5.53 -0.18NJD goalie: Jake Allen → Connor Hellebuyck -0.18; DAL goalie Jake Oettinger: Projected → Likely
5:34 AM 5.70 +0.18NJD goalie: Connor Hellebuyck → Jake Allen +0.18
11:18 AM 5.72 +0.02Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.02
12:18 PM 5.71 -0.01DAL goalie: Jake Oettinger → Casey DeSmith -0.01; DAL lineup: Robert Tiffin Oct 27 11:18 AM
1:18 PM 5.57 -0.15NJD goalie: Jake Allen → Connor Hellebuyck -0.18; Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated +0.03; Line 5.5 o-118 → 5.5 o-115
2:17 PM 5.57 no change
3:18 PM 5.57 DAL goalie Casey DeSmith: Conflict → Confirmed
4:08 PM 5.57 no change
4:17 PM 5.57 no change
5:18 PM 5.57 no change
6:17 PM 5.57 no change
6:45 PM 5.57 no change
7:18 PM 5.57 no change
7:45 PM 5.57 DAL lineup: Robert Tiffin Oct 27 7:38 PM; Line 5.5 o-115 → 5.5 o-113
7:50 PM 5.57 no change

AVOID: NJD and DAL project under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (NJD 2.92, DAL 2.65); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, NJD is bad (1.87) and DAL is trash (1.79); on the power play, NJD is good (0.60) and DAL is mid (0.54). NJD faces Casey DeSmith, a Good goalie, grade 74 (-4.5%); DAL faces Connor Hellebuyck, a Strong goalie, grade 94 (-8.5%). Other factors: injuries help DAL 2.5%. NJD 2.92: 0.23 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.2%); team speed +0.03 (it skates faster than DAL, +0.9%); power play +0.02 (its power play ranks #16, DAL's penalty kill and penalty habits #16). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.17 (its attack ranks #13 of 32, DAL's defense #2); Casey DeSmith in goal -0.13 (a Good goalie, grade 74, -4.5%). DAL 2.65: 0.49 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: injuries +0.06 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.5%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.25 (its attack ranks #21 of 32, NJD's defense #4); Connor Hellebuyck in goal -0.24 (a Strong goalie, grade 94, -8.5%); team speed -0.04 (it skates slower than NJD, -1.5%); power play -0.04 (its power play ranks #10, NJD's penalty kill and penalty habits #2). The model projects 5.57 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 40% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 6 goals (NJD 5, DAL 1), so it went over 5.5 and the call was wrong.

Two rows per game (away, then home). ● = team projected high-scoring. Proj = (5v5 + PP + Oth) × goalie (Gl) × back-to-back (B2B) × team speed (Spd) × injuries (Inj). Hover or tap any underlined label for an explanation.