NHL Total Model · 2026-10-10

7:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

TOR#24 OFF / #31 DEF62.55●

S. Bobrovsky ✓ Mid 42

COL#2 OFF / #1 DEF34.30●

M. Blackwood ✓ Mid 48

9 goals · proj 6.85 · P(7+) 48%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
TOR	1.87	0.47	-2.0%	0.51	–	-5.3%	-3.4%
COL	2.88	0.71	-1.6%	0.50	–	+6.0%	+0.9%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
TOR	1.96#17 of 32	1.94#8 of 32	1.87goals
COL	2.65#1 of 32	2.21#30 of 32	2.88goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
TOR	0.54#20 of 32	0.48#2 of 32	0.47goals
COL	0.58#15 of 32	0.68#30 of 32	0.71goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
TOR
William Nylander R	-4.5%	Played
Auston Matthews C	-3.8%	Played
John Tavares C	-3.6%	Didn't play
Kirill Marchenko R	-0.9%	Played
Darren Raddysh D	-0.7%	Played
COL
Nathan MacKinnon C	-6.6%	Played
Martin Necas C	-4.9%	Played
Cale Makar D	-3.3%	Played
Brock Nelson C	-2.7%	Played
Artturi Lehkonen L	-2.4%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
TOR
Darren Raddysh D	+0.3%	Played
Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	+0.3%	Played
Jack Roslovic C	+0.2%	Played
Kirill Marchenko R	+0.2%	Played
John Tavares C	+0.2%	Didn't play
COL
Martin Necas C	+1.4%	Played
Sam Malinski D	+1.4%	Played
Nathan MacKinnon C	+1.3%	Played
Cale Makar D	+0.9%	Played
Brett Kulak D	+0.8%	Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.75 → 6.85)

2:02 AM 6.75 first run
3:36 AM 6.75 no change
5:23 AM 6.75 Line 6.5 o-114 → 6.5 o-115
11:18 AM 6.74 Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-120
12:17 PM 6.74 COL lineup: Aarif Deen Oct 10 12:06 PM; Line 6.5 o-120 → 6.5 o-125
12:45 PM 6.74 no change
1:17 PM 6.74 no change
2:17 PM 6.74 no change
3:01 PM 6.74 no change
3:17 PM 6.74 no change
3:20 PM 6.74 no change
3:45 PM 6.74 no change
4:18 PM 6.74 no change
5:18 PM 6.72 -0.02Injuries / lineup: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (TOR) out, Sam Malinski (COL) back in -0.02; TOR lineup: Mark Masters Oct 10 5:13 PM; COL goalie Mackenzie Blackwood: Likely → Confirmed
5:46 PM 6.72 no change
6:18 PM 6.72 no change
6:45 PM 6.85 +0.13TOR goalie: Anthony Stolarz → Sergei Bobrovsky +0.13; COL lineup: Bailey Curtis Oct 10 6:45 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: TOR projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (TOR 2.55). The 6.85 total looks high, but most of it comes from COL; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, TOR is bad (1.87) and COL is great (2.88); on the power play, TOR is bad (0.47) and COL is great (0.71). TOR faces Mackenzie Blackwood, a Mid goalie, grade 48 (-2.0%); COL faces Sergei Bobrovsky, a Mid goalie, grade 42 (-1.6%). Other factors: TOR's team speed costs 5.3%; injuries cost TOR 3.4%; COL's team speed adds 6.0%. TOR 2.55: 0.57 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.18 (its attack ranks #17 of 32, COL's defense #8); team speed -0.15 (it skates slower than COL, -5.3%); power play -0.10 (its power play ranks #20, COL's penalty kill and penalty habits #2); injuries -0.09 (missing players on both teams, net, -3.4%); Mackenzie Blackwood in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 48, -2.0%). COL 4.30: 1.18 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.83 (its attack ranks #1 of 32, TOR's defense #30); team speed +0.24 (it skates faster than TOR, +6.0%); power play +0.14 (its power play ranks #15, TOR's penalty kill and penalty habits #30); injuries +0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.9%). Holding it back: Sergei Bobrovsky in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 42, -1.6%). The model projects 6.85 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 48% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 9 goals (TOR 6, COL 3), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

4:00 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

EDM#4 OFF / #15 DEF33.97●

T. Jarry ✓ Trash 11

SJS#27 OFF / #30 DEF12.83●

Y. Askarov ✓ Trash 5

4 goals · proj 6.81 · P(7+) 50%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
EDM	2.46	0.87	+3.4%	0.49	–	+5.0%	-4.2%
SJS	1.80	0.58	+1.9%	0.51	–	-4.5%	+1.0%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
EDM	2.27#3 of 32	2.21#29 of 32	2.46goals
SJS	1.86#27 of 32	1.97#10 of 32	1.80goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
EDM	0.69#4 of 32	0.69#31 of 32	0.87goals
SJS	0.57#16 of 32	0.57#17 of 32	0.58goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
EDM
Connor McDavid C	-7.9%	Played
Leon Draisaitl C	-6.0%	Played
Evan Bouchard D	-4.6%	Played
Zach Hyman L	-3.1%	Didn't play
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C	-2.1%	Didn't play
SJS
Macklin Celebrini C	-4.4%	Played
Will Smith C	-2.1%	Played
Tyler Toffoli C	-2.0%	Played
Alexander Wennberg C	-0.9%	Played
Kiefer Sherwood L	-0.8%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
EDM
Connor McDavid C	+1.6%	Played
Leon Draisaitl C	+1.4%	Played
Evan Bouchard D	+1.4%	Played
Vasily Podkolzin R	+1.3%	Played
Zach Hyman L	+0.7%	Didn't play
SJS
Macklin Celebrini C	+0.8%	Played
Tyler Toffoli C	+0.7%	Played
Dmitry Orlov D	+0.6%	Played
Will Smith C	+0.6%	Played
Adam Gaudette R	+0.4%	Didn't play

Also out: EDM: Matt Savoie -0.5% attack, +0.1% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.75 → 6.81)

2:02 AM 6.75 first run
3:36 AM 6.75 Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-117
5:23 AM 6.75 Line 6.5 o-117 → 6.5 o-118
11:18 AM 6.75 Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-120
12:17 PM 6.75 no change
12:45 PM 6.75 no change
1:17 PM 6.75 no change
2:17 PM 6.75 SJS goalie Yaroslav Askarov: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-120 → 6.5 o-122
3:01 PM 6.75 EDM lineup: Projected Oct 10 2:52 PM; Line 6.5 o-122 → 6.5 o-124
3:17 PM 6.75 Line 6.5 o-124 → 6.5 o-126
3:20 PM 6.75 no change
3:45 PM 6.81 +0.06Injuries / lineup: Macklin Celebrini (SJS) back in +0.05; EDM lineup: Curtis Pashelka Oct 10 3:44 PM; Macklin Celebrini (SJS) day-to-day; SJS lineup: Sheng Peng Oct 10 3:38 PM; Line 6.5 o-126 → 6.5 o-130

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: SJS projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (SJS 2.83). The 6.81 total looks high, but most of it comes from EDM; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, EDM is great (2.46) and SJS is trash (1.80); on the power play, EDM is great (0.87) and SJS is mid (0.58). EDM faces Yaroslav Askarov, a Trash goalie, grade 5 (+3.4%); SJS faces Tristan Jarry, a Trash goalie, grade 11 (+1.9%). Other factors: EDM's team speed adds 5.0%; injuries cost EDM 4.2%; SJS's team speed costs 4.5%. EDM 3.97: 0.85 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.41 (its attack ranks #3 of 32, SJS's defense #29); power play +0.30 (its power play ranks #4, SJS's penalty kill and penalty habits #31); team speed +0.20 (it skates faster than SJS, +5.0%); Yaroslav Askarov in goal +0.13 (a Trash goalie, grade 5, +3.4%). Holding it back: injuries -0.17 (missing players on both teams, net, -4.2%). SJS 2.83: 0.29 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: Tristan Jarry in goal +0.06 (a Trash goalie, grade 11, +1.9%); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.0%); power play +0.01 (its power play ranks #16, EDM's penalty kill and penalty habits #17). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.25 (its attack ranks #27 of 32, EDM's defense #10); team speed -0.13 (it skates slower than EDM, -4.5%). The model projects 6.81 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 50% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 4 goals (EDM 3, SJS 1), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

7:00 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

DAL#19 OFF / #4 DEF13.54●

J. Oettinger ✓ Good 64

PIT#6 OFF / #19 DEF22.93●

A. Silovs ✓ Trash 1

3 goals · proj 6.47 · P(7+) 48%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
DAL	2.15	0.60	+4.9%	0.49	+6.5%	-1.4%	-0.9%
PIT	2.16	0.58	-3.4%	0.52	-8.0%	+0.9%	+0.2%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
DAL	2.05#15 of 32	2.14#21 of 32	2.15goals
PIT	2.32#2 of 32	1.90#5 of 32	2.16goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
DAL	0.65#8 of 32	0.52#5 of 32	0.60goals
PIT	0.60#13 of 32	0.53#10 of 32	0.58goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
DAL
Jason Robertson L	-5.0%	Played
Wyatt Johnston C	-4.5%	Played
Mikko Rantanen R	-3.7%	Played
Roope Hintz C	-2.3%	Played
Matt Duchene C	-1.7%	Didn't play
PIT
Sidney Crosby C	-3.7%	Played
Bryan Rust R	-3.0%	Played
Rickard Rakell R	-2.8%	Played
Evgeni Malkin C	-2.6%	Played
Erik Karlsson D	-1.8%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
DAL
Jason Robertson L	+1.4%	Played
Miro Heiskanen D	+1.2%	Played
Mikko Rantanen R	+1.1%	Played
Thomas Harley D	+1.0%	Played
Nils Lundkvist D	+0.9%	Played
PIT
Tommy Novak C	+1.0%	Played
Ben Kindel C	+0.9%	Played
Samuel Girard D	+0.9%	Played
Egor Chinakhov R	+0.6%	Played
Evgeni Malkin C	+0.4%	Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.41 → 6.47)

2:02 AM 6.41 first run
3:36 AM 6.41 no change
5:23 AM 6.41 no change
11:17 AM 6.48 +0.07Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.07; Line 6.5 o-109 → 6.5 o-101
12:17 PM 6.48 DAL goalie Jake Oettinger: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-101 → 6.5 o-102
12:45 PM 6.48 no change
1:17 PM 6.48 no change
2:17 PM 6.48 Line 6.5 o-102 → 6.5 o-100
3:01 PM 6.48 no change
3:17 PM 6.48 no change
3:20 PM 6.48 no change
3:45 PM 6.47 no change
4:18 PM 6.47 no change
5:18 PM 6.47 PIT goalie Arturs Silovs: Likely → Confirmed
5:46 PM 6.47 no change
6:18 PM 6.47 no change
6:45 PM 6.47 no change

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: PIT projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (PIT 2.93). The 6.47 total looks high, but most of it comes from DAL; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, DAL is good (2.15) and PIT is good (2.16); on the power play, DAL is good (0.60) and PIT is mid (0.58). DAL faces Arturs Silovs, a Trash goalie, grade 1 (+4.9%); PIT faces Jake Oettinger, a Good goalie, grade 64 (-3.4%). Other factors: DAL's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); PIT played yesterday (-8%). DAL 3.54: 0.42 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.22 (PIT played yesterday, +6.5%); Arturs Silovs in goal +0.16 (a Trash goalie, grade 1, +4.9%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.10 (its attack ranks #15 of 32, PIT's defense #21); power play +0.03 (its power play ranks #8, PIT's penalty kill and penalty habits #5). Holding it back: team speed -0.05 (it skates slower than PIT, -1.4%); injuries -0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.9%). PIT 2.93: 0.20 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.12 (its attack ranks #2 of 32, DAL's defense #5); team speed +0.03 (it skates faster than DAL, +0.9%). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.25 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); Jake Oettinger in goal -0.11 (a Good goalie, grade 64, -3.4%). The model projects 6.47 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 48% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 3 goals (DAL 1, PIT 2), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

7:00 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

UTA#5 OFF / #5 DEF43.31●

K. Vejmelka ✓ Mid 43

BUF#16 OFF / #12 DEF13.02●

C. Ellis ✓ OK 30

5 goals · proj 6.33 · P(7+) 48%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
UTA	2.13	0.70	-0.5%	0.50	–	+0.4%	-0.5%
BUF	2.11	0.46	-1.6%	0.50	–	+0.4%	-0.2%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
UTA	2.22#7 of 32	1.96#9 of 32	2.13goals
BUF	2.14#10 of 32	2.01#16 of 32	2.11goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
UTA	0.73#1 of 32	0.52#8 of 32	0.70goals
BUF	0.46#29 of 32	0.55#13 of 32	0.46goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
UTA
Dylan Guenther R	-4.0%	Played
Clayton Keller R	-3.8%	Played
Nick Schmaltz C	-3.6%	Played
Logan Cooley C	-2.4%	Played
Mikhail Sergachev D	-1.4%	Played
BUF
Tage Thompson C	-4.7%	Played
Rasmus Dahlin D	-2.5%	Played
Josh Doan R	-1.9%	Played
Jack Quinn R	-1.9%	Played
Jason Zucker L	-1.8%	Didn't play

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
UTA
Clayton Keller R	+1.6%	Played
Nate Schmidt D	+1.4%	Played
Nick Schmaltz C	+1.0%	Played
Barrett Hayton C	+1.0%	Played
Michael Carcone L	+0.9%	Didn't play
BUF
Rasmus Dahlin D	+1.3%	Played
Josh Doan R	+1.1%	Played
Noah Ostlund C	+1.0%	Played
Zach Benson L	+1.0%	Played
Tage Thompson C	+0.8%	Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.34 → 6.33)

2:02 AM 6.34 first run
3:36 AM 6.34 no change
5:23 AM 6.34 no change
11:18 AM 6.34 BUF goalie Colten Ellis: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o+102
12:17 PM 6.34 BUF lineup: Heather Engel Oct 10 11:31 AM
12:45 PM 6.34 no change
1:17 PM 6.34 Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o+101
2:17 PM 6.34 Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o+100
3:01 PM 6.34 no change
3:17 PM 6.34 no change
3:20 PM 6.34 no change
3:45 PM 6.33 no change
4:18 PM 6.33 no change
5:18 PM 6.33 Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o-100
5:46 PM 6.33 no change
6:18 PM 6.33 no change
6:45 PM 6.33 UTA goalie Karel Vejmelka: Likely → Confirmed; UTA lineup: Utah Mammoth Oct 10 6:35 PM; BUF lineup: Rachel Lenzi Oct 10 6:39 PM; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o+100

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: BUF projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (BUF 3.02). BUF just misses the cutoff (by 0.07), and the rule needs both teams over it, so the 6.33 total isn't enough on its own. At 5-on-5, UTA is good (2.13) and BUF is good (2.11); on the power play, UTA is great (0.70) and BUF is trash (0.46). UTA faces Colten Ellis, an OK goalie, grade 30 (-0.5%); BUF faces Karel Vejmelka, a Mid goalie, grade 43 (-1.6%). UTA 3.31: 0.19 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: power play +0.12 (its power play ranks #1, BUF's penalty kill and penalty habits #8); 5-on-5 matchup +0.09 (its attack ranks #7 of 32, BUF's defense #9); team speed +0.01 (it skates faster than BUF, +0.4%). Holding it back: Colten Ellis in goal -0.02 (an OK goalie, grade 30, -0.5%); injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.5%). BUF 3.02: 0.10 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.06 (its attack ranks #10 of 32, UTA's defense #16); team speed +0.01 (it skates faster than UTA, +0.4%). Holding it back: power play -0.12 (its power play ranks #29, UTA's penalty kill and penalty habits #13); Karel Vejmelka in goal -0.05 (a Mid goalie, grade 43, -1.6%). The model projects 6.33 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 48% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (UTA 4, BUF 1), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

7:00 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

DET#13 OFF / #13 DEF02.91●

D. Tarasov ✓ Trash 15

MTL#14 OFF / #28 DEF13.40●

J. Fowler ✓ Mid 44

1 goals · proj 6.31 · P(7+) 47%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
DET	1.98	0.75	-1.7%	0.52	-8.0%	-2.4%	+1.7%
MTL	2.06	0.56	+1.3%	0.49	+6.5%	+2.6%	-1.4%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
DET	1.94#19 of 32	2.07#19 of 32	1.98goals
MTL	2.13#11 of 32	1.98#11 of 32	2.06goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
DET	0.65#6 of 32	0.64#27 of 32	0.75goals
MTL	0.52#22 of 32	0.60#23 of 32	0.56goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
DET
Alex DeBrincat R	-5.1%	Played
Lucas Raymond L	-3.7%	Played
Dylan Larkin C	-3.1%	Played
Moritz Seider D	-1.1%	Played
Viktor Arvidsson L	-0.6%	Played
MTL
Cole Caufield R	-5.3%	Played
Nick Suzuki C	-5.0%	Played
Juraj Slafkovský L	-3.3%	Played
Lane Hutson D	-2.2%	Played
Ivan Demidov R	-2.1%	Didn't play

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
DET
Moritz Seider D	+1.3%	Played
Alex DeBrincat R	+1.2%	Played
Lucas Raymond L	+1.2%	Played
Emmitt Finnie C	+0.7%	Played
Axel Sandin-Pellikka D	+0.5%	Played
MTL
Lane Hutson D	+2.0%	Played
Cole Caufield R	+1.2%	Played
Zachary Bolduc R	+1.2%	Played
Nick Suzuki C	+1.1%	Played
Juraj Slafkovský L	+0.8%	Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.23 → 6.31)

2:02 AM 6.23 first run
3:36 AM 6.23 no change
5:23 AM 6.23 Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o+102
11:17 AM 6.33 +0.10MTL goalie: Jakub Dobes → Jacob Fowler +0.06; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.06; Injuries / lineup: Jayden Struble (MTL) back in -0.02; MTL lineup: Projected Oct 10 10:59 AM
12:17 PM 6.32 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Kaiden Guhle (MTL) back in -0.01; Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o+101
12:45 PM 6.32 no change
1:17 PM 6.32 no change
2:17 PM 6.32 no change
3:01 PM 6.31 -0.01Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated -0.01
3:17 PM 6.31 no change
3:20 PM 6.31 no change
3:45 PM 6.31 no change
4:18 PM 6.31 no change
5:18 PM 6.31 no change
5:46 PM 6.31 no change
6:18 PM 6.31 Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o+100
6:45 PM 6.31 Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o+101

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: DET projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (DET 2.91). The 6.31 total looks high, but most of it comes from MTL; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, DET is mid (1.98) and MTL is good (2.06); on the power play, DET is great (0.75) and MTL is mid (0.56). DET faces Jacob Fowler, a Mid goalie, grade 44 (-1.7%); MTL faces Daniil Tarasov, a Trash goalie, grade 15 (+1.3%). Other factors: DET played yesterday (-8%); DET's team speed costs 2.4%; injuries help DET 1.7%; MTL's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); MTL's team speed adds 2.6%. DET 2.91: 0.21 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: power play +0.18 (its power play ranks #6, MTL's penalty kill and penalty habits #27); injuries +0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.7%). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.25 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.07 (its attack ranks #19 of 32, MTL's defense #19); team speed -0.07 (it skates slower than MTL, -2.4%); Jacob Fowler in goal -0.05 (a Mid goalie, grade 44, -1.7%). MTL 3.40: 0.28 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.21 (DET played yesterday, +6.5%); team speed +0.09 (it skates faster than DET, +2.6%); Daniil Tarasov in goal +0.04 (a Trash goalie, grade 15, +1.3%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.01 (its attack ranks #11 of 32, DET's defense #11). Holding it back: injuries -0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.4%). The model projects 6.31 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 47% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 1 goals (DET 0, MTL 1), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

7:00 PM ETAVOID

U 6 ✓ under

NSH#17 OFF / #25 DEF22.75●

M. Murray ✓ OK 25

OTT#9 OFF / #6 DEF33.56●

L. Ullmark ✓ Good 72

5 goals · proj 6.31 · P(7+) 46%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
NSH	1.74	0.69	-4.2%	0.51	–	-3.4%	+1.2%
OTT	2.31	0.66	-0.1%	0.50	–	+3.2%	-0.3%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NSH	1.86#28 of 32	1.91#6 of 32	1.74goals
OTT	2.18#9 of 32	2.16#26 of 32	2.31goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NSH	0.65#6 of 32	0.58#19 of 32	0.69goals
OTT	0.63#10 of 32	0.58#18 of 32	0.66goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
NSH
Filip Forsberg L	-4.2%	Played
Steven Stamkos C	-4.0%	Played
Ryan O'Reilly C	-3.0%	Played
Roman Josi D	-1.4%	Played
Jonathan Marchessault R	-1.2%	Played
OTT
Tim Stützle C	-4.2%	Played
Drake Batherson R	-3.3%	Played
Dylan Cozens C	-2.5%	Played
Shane Pinto C	-1.6%	Played
Claude Giroux R	-1.3%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
NSH
Filip Forsberg L	+0.7%	Played
Steven Stamkos C	+0.7%	Played
Roman Josi D	+0.4%	Played
Adam Wilsby D	+0.4%	Played
Mavrik Bourque C	+0.2%	Didn't play
OTT
Jordan Spence D	+2.1%	Played
Drake Batherson R	+1.5%	Played
Dylan Cozens C	+1.4%	Played
Tim Stützle C	+1.2%	Played
Tyler Kleven D	+1.1%	Played

Also out: OTT: Jake Sanderson (scratch) -1.1% attack, +0.6% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.26 → 6.31)

2:02 AM 6.26 first run
3:36 AM 6.26 no change
5:23 AM 6.26 no change
11:18 AM 6.26 Andre Burakovsky (OTT) day-to-day; OTT lineup: Graeme Nichols Oct 10 10:49 AM; Line 6 o-103 → 6 o-115
12:17 PM 6.26 Andre Burakovsky (OTT) off day-to-day; OTT lineup: Graeme Nichols Oct 10 11:30 AM
12:45 PM 6.26 no change
1:17 PM 6.26 no change
2:17 PM 6.26 no change
3:01 PM 6.26 no change
3:17 PM 6.26 no change
3:20 PM 6.26 no change
3:45 PM 6.27 no change
4:18 PM 6.27 no change
5:18 PM 6.27 OTT goalie Linus Ullmark: Likely → Confirmed
5:46 PM 6.27 no change
6:18 PM 6.27 no change
6:45 PM 6.31 +0.04NSH goalie: Juuse Saros → Matthew Murray +0.04; NSH lineup: Brooks Bratten Oct 10 6:44 PM; Line 6 o-115 → 6 o-120

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: NSH projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (NSH 2.75). The 6.31 total looks high, but most of it comes from OTT; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, NSH is trash (1.74) and OTT is great (2.31); on the power play, NSH is great (0.69) and OTT is great (0.66). NSH faces Linus Ullmark, a Good goalie, grade 72 (-4.2%); OTT faces Matthew Murray, an OK goalie, grade 25 (-0.1%). Other factors: NSH's team speed costs 3.4%; OTT's team speed adds 3.2%. NSH 2.75: 0.38 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: power play +0.12 (its power play ranks #6, OTT's penalty kill and penalty habits #19); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.2%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.31 (its attack ranks #28 of 32, OTT's defense #6); Linus Ullmark in goal -0.12 (a Good goalie, grade 72, -4.2%); team speed -0.10 (it skates slower than OTT, -3.4%). OTT 3.56: 0.44 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.26 (its attack ranks #9 of 32, NSH's defense #26); team speed +0.11 (it skates faster than NSH, +3.2%); power play +0.09 (its power play ranks #10, NSH's penalty kill and penalty habits #18). The model projects 6.31 total goals against a 6 line, with a 46% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (NSH 2, OTT 3), so it stayed under 6 and the call was right.

3:30 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

VAN#26 OFF / #32 DEF12.92●

L. Meriläinen ✓ Trash 6

NJD#15 OFF / #21 DEF43.38●

J. Allen ✓ Mid 56

5 goals · proj 6.29 · P(7+) 47%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
VAN	1.92	0.56	-2.7%	0.51	–	-0.4%	+0.9%
NJD	2.15	0.63	+3.0%	0.50	–	–	-0.2%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
VAN	1.92#24 of 32	2.04#17 of 32	1.92goals
NJD	1.92#23 of 32	2.29#31 of 32	2.15goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
VAN	0.56#17 of 32	0.54#12 of 32	0.56goals
NJD	0.51#24 of 32	0.68#29 of 32	0.63goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
VAN
Jake DeBrusk L	-1.7%	Played
Brock Boeser R	-1.7%	Played
Elias Pettersson C	-1.7%	Played
Marco Rossi C	-1.2%	Played
Linus Karlsson C	-1.0%	Played
NJD
Jack Hughes C	-3.8%	Played
Nico Hischier C	-3.6%	Played
Jesper Bratt L	-3.4%	Played
Timo Meier R	-1.9%	Played
Dougie Hamilton D	-1.3%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
VAN
Linus Karlsson C	+0.8%	Played
Jake DeBrusk L	+0.5%	Played
Elias Pettersson C	+0.5%	Played
Marco Rossi C	+0.5%	Played
Zeev Buium D	+0.4%	Played
NJD
Jack Hughes C	+1.1%	Played
Luke Hughes D	+1.0%	Played
Jesper Bratt L	+0.9%	Played
Dougie Hamilton D	+0.9%	Played
Timo Meier R	+0.8%	Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.39 → 6.29)

2:02 AM 6.39 first run
3:36 AM 6.29 -0.10NJD goalie: Nico Daws → Jake Allen -0.10
5:23 AM 6.29 Line 6.5 o-101 → 6.5 o-102
11:18 AM 6.29 Line 6.5 o-102 → 6.5 o-100
12:17 PM 6.29 no change
12:45 PM 6.29 no change
1:17 PM 6.29 no change
2:17 PM 6.29 NJD goalie Jake Allen: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o-102
3:01 PM 6.29 VAN goalie Leevi Merilainen: Likely → Confirmed
3:17 PM 6.29 VAN lineup: Thomas Drance Oct 10 3:09 PM; Jonas Siegenthaler (NJD) off day-to-day; NJD lineup: New Jersey Devils Oct 10 3:14 PM
3:20 PM 6.29 VAN lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-08)

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: VAN projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (VAN 2.92). The 6.29 total looks high, but most of it comes from NJD; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, VAN is bad (1.92) and NJD is good (2.15); on the power play, VAN is mid (0.56) and NJD is good (0.63). VAN faces Jake Allen, a Mid goalie, grade 56 (-2.7%); NJD faces Leevi Merilainen, a Trash goalie, grade 6 (+3.0%). VAN 2.92: 0.20 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.9%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.13 (its attack ranks #24 of 32, NJD's defense #17); Jake Allen in goal -0.08 (a Mid goalie, grade 56, -2.7%); power play -0.02 (its power play ranks #17, NJD's penalty kill and penalty habits #12); team speed -0.01 (it skates slower than NJD, -0.4%). NJD 3.38: 0.25 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.11 (its attack ranks #23 of 32, VAN's defense #31); Leevi Merilainen in goal +0.10 (a Trash goalie, grade 6, +3.0%); power play +0.06 (its power play ranks #24, VAN's penalty kill and penalty habits #29). The model projects 6.29 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 47% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (VAN 1, NJD 4), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

10:00 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

ANA#8 OFF / #20 DEF43.28●

V. Husso ✓ Trash 8

CGY#30 OFF / #27 DEF22.95●

D. Wolf ✓ Trash 16

6 goals · proj 6.23 · P(7+) 47%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
ANA	2.29	0.57	+1.0%	0.51	-8.0%	+4.4%	+0.3%
CGY	1.85	0.49	+2.4%	0.50	+6.5%	-4.7%	+0.1%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
ANA	2.12#12 of 32	2.20#28 of 32	2.29goals
CGY	1.83#30 of 32	2.06#18 of 32	1.85goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
ANA	0.61#12 of 32	0.52#5 of 32	0.57goals
CGY	0.42#31 of 32	0.64#28 of 32	0.49goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
ANA
Cutter Gauthier L	-3.1%	Played
Leo Carlsson C	-3.1%	Played
Beckett Sennecke R	-3.0%	Played
Mikael Granlund C	-2.0%	Played
Troy Terry R	-1.7%	Didn't play
CGY
Matt Coronato R	-1.5%	Played
Morgan Frost C	-1.3%	Played
Jonathan Huberdeau L	-0.7%	Didn't play
Ryan Strome C	-0.4%	Played
Mikael Backlund C	-0.4%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
ANA
Leo Carlsson C	+0.6%	Played
Beckett Sennecke R	+0.6%	Played
Ian Moore D	+0.5%	Didn't play
Cutter Gauthier L	+0.5%	Played
Jackson LaCombe D	+0.4%	Played
CGY
Morgan Frost C	+0.9%	Played
Connor Zary C	+0.7%	Didn't play
Joel Hanley D	+0.5%	Didn't play
Matt Coronato R	+0.4%	Played
Adam Klapka R	+0.4%	Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.22 → 6.23)

2:02 AM 6.22 first run
3:36 AM 6.22 Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o-101
5:23 AM 6.22 no change
11:17 AM 6.23 +0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.01; Line 6.5 o-101 → 6.5 o-105
12:17 PM 6.23 CGY goalie Dustin Wolf: Likely → Confirmed
12:45 PM 6.23 no change
1:17 PM 6.23 no change
2:17 PM 6.23 CGY lineup: Danny Austin Oct 10 2:08 PM
3:01 PM 6.23 no change
3:17 PM 6.23 no change
3:20 PM 6.23 no change
3:45 PM 6.23 no change
4:18 PM 6.23 no change
5:18 PM 6.23 no change
5:46 PM 6.23 no change
6:18 PM 6.23 no change
6:45 PM 6.23 no change
7:18 PM 6.23 Line 6.5 o-105 → 6.5 o-108
7:39 PM 6.23 no change
8:18 PM 6.23 no change
9:18 PM 6.23 no change
9:46 PM 6.23 ANA goalie Ville Husso: Likely → Conflict; CGY lineup: Pat Steinberg Oct 10 9:40 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: CGY projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (CGY 2.95). The 6.23 total looks high, but most of it comes from ANA; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, ANA is great (2.29) and CGY is bad (1.85); on the power play, ANA is mid (0.57) and CGY is bad (0.49). ANA faces Dustin Wolf, a Trash goalie, grade 16 (+1.0%); CGY faces Ville Husso, a Trash goalie, grade 8 (+2.4%). Other factors: ANA played yesterday (-8%); ANA's team speed adds 4.4%; CGY's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); CGY's team speed costs 4.7%. ANA 3.28: 0.15 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.25 (its attack ranks #12 of 32, CGY's defense #28); team speed +0.14 (it skates faster than CGY, +4.4%); Dustin Wolf in goal +0.03 (a Trash goalie, grade 16, +1.0%). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.27 (it played yesterday, -8.0%). CGY 2.95: 0.17 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.19 (ANA played yesterday, +6.5%); Ville Husso in goal +0.07 (a Trash goalie, grade 8, +2.4%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.20 (its attack ranks #30 of 32, ANA's defense #18); team speed -0.15 (it skates slower than ANA, -4.7%); power play -0.08 (its power play ranks #31, ANA's penalty kill and penalty habits #28). The model projects 6.23 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 47% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 6 goals (ANA 4, CGY 2), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

7:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6 ✗ went over

CAR#1 OFF / #2 DEF53.62●

B. Bussi ✓ OK 22

CHI#32 OFF / #29 DEF22.52●

S. Knight ✓ Mid 55

7 goals · proj 6.14 · P(7+) 43%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
CAR	2.61	0.68	-2.6%	0.50	–	+0.8%	-2.8%
CHI	1.65	0.41	+0.2%	0.50	–	-0.9%	-0.8%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CAR	2.26#5 of 32	2.36#32 of 32	2.61goals
CHI	1.76#31 of 32	1.92#7 of 32	1.65goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CAR	0.73#2 of 32	0.52#5 of 32	0.68goals
CHI	0.44#30 of 32	0.51#4 of 32	0.41goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
CAR
Sebastian Aho C	-4.4%	Played
Andrei Svechnikov R	-3.8%	Played
Nikolaj Ehlers L	-3.1%	Played
Seth Jarvis C	-2.7%	Didn't play
Jackson Blake R	-2.5%	Played
CHI
Tyler Bertuzzi L	-2.3%	Played
Connor Bedard C	-1.8%	Didn't play
Frank Nazar C	-0.8%	Didn't play
Patrick Kane R	-0.7%	Played
Ryan Donato C	-0.6%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
CAR
Jackson Blake R	+1.8%	Played
Shayne Gostisbehere D	+1.5%	Played
Nikolaj Ehlers L	+1.4%	Played
Logan Stankoven C	+1.4%	Played
Sean Walker D	+1.4%	Played
CHI
Andrew Mangiapane L	+0.5%	Didn't play
Tyler Bertuzzi L	+0.4%	Played
Oliver Moore C	+0.3%	Played
Ryan Donato C	+0.2%	Played
Sam Rinzel D	+0.2%	Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.14 → 6.14)

2:02 AM 6.14 first run
3:36 AM 6.14 no change
5:23 AM 6.14 no change
11:17 AM 6.15 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Alexander Nikishin (CAR) out, Teuvo Teravainen (CHI) back in +0.01; CHI goalie Spencer Knight: Likely → Confirmed; Teuvo Teravainen (CHI) day-to-day; CHI lineup: Charlie Roumeliotis Oct 10 10:51 AM; Line 6 o-109 → 6 o-119
12:17 PM 6.15 Teuvo Teravainen (CHI) off day-to-day; Line 6 o-119 → 6 o-117
12:45 PM 6.15 no change
1:17 PM 6.15 no change
2:17 PM 6.15 no change
3:01 PM 6.15 no change
3:17 PM 6.15 no change
3:20 PM 6.15 no change
3:45 PM 6.14 -0.02Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated -0.02
4:18 PM 6.14 no change
5:18 PM 6.14 Line 6 o-117 → 6 o-120
5:46 PM 6.14 no change
6:18 PM 6.14 Line 6 o-120 → 6 o-117
6:45 PM 6.14 CAR goalie Brandon Bussi: Likely → Confirmed; CHI lineup: Mark Lazerus Oct 10 6:40 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: CHI projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (CHI 2.52). The 6.14 total looks high, but most of it comes from CAR; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, CAR is great (2.61) and CHI is trash (1.65); on the power play, CAR is great (0.68) and CHI is trash (0.41). CAR faces Spencer Knight, a Mid goalie, grade 55 (-2.6%); CHI faces Brandon Bussi, an OK goalie, grade 22 (+0.2%). Other factors: injuries cost CAR 2.8%. CAR 3.62: 0.49 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.56 (its attack ranks #5 of 32, CHI's defense #32); power play +0.11 (its power play ranks #2, CHI's penalty kill and penalty habits #5); team speed +0.03 (it skates faster than CHI, +0.8%). Holding it back: injuries -0.11 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.8%); Spencer Knight in goal -0.10 (a Mid goalie, grade 55, -2.6%). CHI 2.52: 0.60 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.40 (its attack ranks #31 of 32, CAR's defense #7); power play -0.17 (its power play ranks #30, CAR's penalty kill and penalty habits #4); team speed -0.02 (it skates slower than CAR, -0.9%); injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.8%). The model projects 6.14 total goals against a 6 line, with a 43% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (CAR 5, CHI 2), so it went over 6 and the call was wrong.

6:00 PM ETAVOID

U 5.5 ✓ under

MIN#10 OFF / #8 DEF43.00●

J. Wallstedt ✓ Mid 49

FLA#18 OFF / #10 DEF12.90●

J. Markstrom ✓ OK 26

5 goals · proj 5.89 · P(7+) 44%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
MIN	1.76	0.71	-0.2%	0.50	–	-0.3%	+1.3%
FLA	1.89	0.62	-2.1%	0.50	–	+0.1%	-1.8%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
MIN	1.94#21 of 32	1.86#2 of 32	1.76goals
FLA	1.94#20 of 32	1.99#13 of 32	1.89goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
MIN	0.67#5 of 32	0.59#21 of 32	0.71goals
FLA	0.64#9 of 32	0.53#9 of 32	0.62goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
MIN
Kirill Kaprizov L	-5.4%	Played
Matt Boldy L	-4.3%	Played
Quinn Hughes D	-2.5%	Played
Joel Eriksson Ek C	-2.4%	Played
Ryan Hartman R	-0.9%	Played
FLA
Sam Reinhart C	-3.5%	Played
Sam Bennett C	-3.1%	Played
Carter Verhaeghe C	-2.8%	Played
Matthew Tkachuk L	-2.6%	Played
Brad Marchand L	-2.3%	Didn't play

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
MIN
Quinn Hughes D	+1.8%	Played
Kirill Kaprizov L	+1.5%	Played
Jared Spurgeon D	+1.0%	Played
Matt Boldy L	+1.0%	Played
Bobby Brink R	+0.9%	Played
FLA
Uvis Balinskis D	+0.8%	Didn't play
Niko Mikkola D	+0.8%	Played
Carter Verhaeghe C	+0.8%	Played
Sam Bennett C	+0.7%	Played
Sam Reinhart C	+0.6%	Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (5.88 → 5.89)

2:02 AM 5.88 first run
3:36 AM 5.88 no change
5:23 AM 5.88 Line 5.5 o-128 → 5.5 o-126
11:18 AM 5.88 FLA goalie Jacob Markstrom: Likely → Confirmed; Line 5.5 o-126 → 5.5 o-122
12:17 PM 5.88 no change
12:45 PM 5.88 no change
1:17 PM 5.88 no change
2:17 PM 5.88 no change
3:01 PM 5.88 no change
3:17 PM 5.88 no change
3:20 PM 5.88 no change
3:45 PM 5.87 no change
4:18 PM 5.87 no change
5:18 PM 5.87 no change
5:45 PM 5.89 +0.02Injuries / lineup: Marcus Foligno (MIN) out, Zach Bogosian (MIN) out +0.02; MIN goalie Jesper Wallstedt: Likely → Confirmed; Olli Maatta (MIN) day-to-day; MIN lineup: Michael Russo Oct 10 5:41 PM; FLA lineup: Jameson Olive Oct 10 5:37 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: MIN and FLA project under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (MIN 3.00, FLA 2.90); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, MIN is trash (1.76) and FLA is bad (1.89); on the power play, MIN is great (0.71) and FLA is good (0.62). MIN faces Jacob Markstrom, an OK goalie, grade 26 (-0.2%); FLA faces Jesper Wallstedt, a Mid goalie, grade 49 (-2.1%). Other factors: injuries cost FLA 1.8%. MIN 3.00: 0.13 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: power play +0.14 (its power play ranks #5, FLA's penalty kill and penalty habits #21); injuries +0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.3%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.29 (its attack ranks #21 of 32, FLA's defense #2). FLA 2.90: 0.23 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: power play +0.04 (its power play ranks #9, MIN's penalty kill and penalty habits #9). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.15 (its attack ranks #20 of 32, MIN's defense #13); Jesper Wallstedt in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 49, -2.1%); injuries -0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.8%). The model projects 5.89 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 44% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 6.5 to 5.5, toward the under. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (MIN 4, FLA 1), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.

1:00 PM ETAVOID

O 5.5 ✗ went over

PHI#31 OFF / #26 DEF12.66●

D. Vladar ✓ OK 27

BOS#25 OFF / #22 DEF53.23●

J. Swayman ✓ Strong 86

6 goals · proj 5.89 · P(7+) 42%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
PHI	1.80	0.51	-6.7%	0.51	–	+2.0%	-0.6%
BOS	2.15	0.62	-0.3%	0.51	–	-2.4%	+1.1%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
PHI	1.74#32 of 32	2.10#20 of 32	1.80goals
BOS	2.04#16 of 32	2.15#22 of 32	2.15goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
PHI	0.48#28 of 32	0.59#21 of 32	0.51goals
BOS	0.55#18 of 32	0.62#25 of 32	0.62goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
PHI
Travis Konecny R	-2.0%	Didn't play
Trevor Zegras C	-1.9%	Played
Matvei Michkov R	-1.8%	Played
Owen Tippett R	-1.6%	Played
Tyson Foerster R	-0.7%	Played
BOS
David Pastrnak R	-4.2%	Played
Morgan Geekie C	-3.3%	Played
Pavel Zacha C	-2.4%	Played
Elias Lindholm C	-1.5%	Played
Casey Mittelstadt C	-1.0%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
PHI
Jamie Drysdale D	+1.1%	Played
Owen Tippett R	+1.0%	Played
Noah Cates L	+0.9%	Played
Matvei Michkov R	+0.9%	Played
Trevor Zegras C	+0.8%	Played
BOS
David Pastrnak R	+0.9%	Played
Mason Lohrei D	+0.7%	Played
Morgan Geekie C	+0.7%	Played
Casey Mittelstadt C	+0.5%	Played
Fraser Minten C	+0.3%	Played

Also out: BOS: Charlie McAvoy -0.8% attack, -0.1% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (5.88 → 5.89)

2:02 AM 5.88 first run
3:36 AM 5.88 no change
5:23 AM 5.88 no change
11:18 AM 5.88 PHI goalie Dan Vladar: Likely → Confirmed; Line 5.5 o-119 → 5.5 o-118
12:17 PM 5.88 BOS goalie Jeremy Swayman: Likely → Confirmed; Line 5.5 o-118 → 5.5 o-115
12:45 PM 5.89 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Cam York (PHI) out, Travis Konecny (PHI) out +0.01; PHI lineup: Gabriela Carroll Oct 10 12:40 PM; BOS lineup: Jack Studley Oct 10 12:37 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: PHI projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (PHI 2.66); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, PHI is trash (1.80) and BOS is good (2.15); on the power play, PHI is bad (0.51) and BOS is good (0.62). PHI faces Jeremy Swayman, a Strong goalie, grade 86 (-6.7%); BOS faces Dan Vladar, an OK goalie, grade 27 (-0.3%). Other factors: PHI's team speed adds 2.0%; BOS's team speed costs 2.4%. PHI 2.66: 0.46 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: team speed +0.05 (it skates faster than BOS, +2.0%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.25 (its attack ranks #32 of 32, BOS's defense #20); Jeremy Swayman in goal -0.19 (a Strong goalie, grade 86, -6.7%); power play -0.06 (its power play ranks #28, BOS's penalty kill and penalty habits #21); injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.6%). BOS 3.23: 0.10 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.10 (its attack ranks #16 of 32, PHI's defense #22); power play +0.05 (its power play ranks #18, PHI's penalty kill and penalty habits #25); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.1%). Holding it back: team speed -0.08 (it skates slower than PHI, -2.4%); Dan Vladar in goal -0.01 (an OK goalie, grade 27, -0.3%). The model projects 5.89 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 42% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 6 goals (PHI 1, BOS 5), so it went over 5.5 and the call was wrong.

7:30 PM ETAVOID

O 5.5 ✗ went over

TBL#7 OFF / #7 DEF53.23●

A. Vasilevskiy ✓ Strong 93

NYI#20 OFF / #18 DEF32.65●

I. Sorokin ✓ Strong 92

8 goals · proj 5.88 · P(7+) 42%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
TBL	2.39	0.62	-8.2%	0.51	–	-2.0%	+2.0%
NYI	1.81	0.52	-8.3%	0.51	–	+2.3%	-0.7%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
TBL	2.26#4 of 32	2.16#25 of 32	2.39goals
NYI	1.95#18 of 32	1.89#4 of 32	1.81goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
TBL	0.54#19 of 32	0.63#26 of 32	0.62goals
NYI	0.54#21 of 32	0.54#11 of 32	0.52goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
TBL
Nikita Kucherov R	-7.3%	Played
Jake Guentzel C	-5.2%	Played
Brandon Hagel L	-5.1%	Played
Brayden Point C	-3.4%	Played
Anthony Cirelli C	-2.8%	Played
NYI
Bo Horvat C	-2.7%	Played
Mathew Barzal C	-2.1%	Didn't play
Matthew Schaefer D	-2.1%	Played
Brayden Schenn C	-1.0%	Played
Calum Ritchie C	-0.7%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
TBL
Gage Goncalves C	+1.2%	Played
Pontus Holmberg R	+1.1%	Played
Nikita Kucherov R	+1.0%	Played
Jake Guentzel C	+0.9%	Played
Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	+0.8%	Played
NYI
Matthew Schaefer D	+0.9%	Played
Mathew Barzal C	+0.9%	Didn't play
Emil Heineman L	+0.7%	Played
Ondrej Palat L	+0.5%	Played
Brayden Schenn C	+0.5%	Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (5.88 → 5.88)

2:02 AM 5.88 first run
3:36 AM 5.88 no change
5:23 AM 5.88 Line 5.5 o-115 → 5.5 o-112
11:18 AM 5.88 NYI goalie Ilya Sorokin: Likely → Confirmed; NYI lineup: Stefen Rosner Oct 10 10:49 AM; Line 5.5 o-112 → 5.5 o-114
12:17 PM 5.88 Line 5.5 o-114 → 5.5 o-115
12:45 PM 5.88 no change
1:17 PM 5.88 no change
2:17 PM 5.88 no change
3:01 PM 5.88 TBL goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy: Likely → Confirmed
3:17 PM 5.88 no change
3:20 PM 5.88 no change
3:45 PM 5.88 +0.01Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated +0.01
4:18 PM 5.88 no change
5:18 PM 5.88 Line 5.5 o-115 → 5.5 o-114
5:46 PM 5.88 no change
6:18 PM 5.88 no change
6:45 PM 5.88 no change
7:18 PM 5.88 TBL lineup: Eduardo Encina Oct 10 7:08 PM; Bo Horvat (NYI) off day-to-day; NYI lineup: Stefen Rosner Oct 10 7:06 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: NYI projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (NYI 2.65); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, TBL is great (2.39) and NYI is trash (1.81); on the power play, TBL is good (0.62) and NYI is bad (0.52). TBL faces Ilya Sorokin, a Strong goalie, grade 92 (-8.2%); NYI faces Andrei Vasilevskiy, a Strong goalie, grade 93 (-8.3%). Other factors: injuries help TBL 2.0%; NYI's team speed adds 2.3%. TBL 3.23: 0.11 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.34 (its attack ranks #4 of 32, NYI's defense #25); injuries +0.06 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.0%); power play +0.05 (its power play ranks #19, NYI's penalty kill and penalty habits #26). Holding it back: Ilya Sorokin in goal -0.29 (a Strong goalie, grade 92, -8.2%); team speed -0.06 (it skates slower than NYI, -2.0%). NYI 2.65: 0.48 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: team speed +0.06 (it skates faster than TBL, +2.3%). Holding it back: Andrei Vasilevskiy in goal -0.24 (a Strong goalie, grade 93, -8.3%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.24 (its attack ranks #18 of 32, TBL's defense #4); power play -0.05 (its power play ranks #21, TBL's penalty kill and penalty habits #11); injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.7%). The model projects 5.88 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 42% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 8 goals (TBL 5, NYI 3), so it went over 5.5 and the call was wrong.

7:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6 ✗ went over

CBJ#12 OFF / #17 DEF33.02●

J. Greaves ✓ Strong 81

STL#29 OFF / #14 DEF52.83●

J. Binnington ✓ Trash 7

8 goals · proj 5.85 · P(7+) 43%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
CBJ	2.06	0.51	+2.8%	0.51	-8.0%	+1.7%	+2.4%
STL	1.88	0.42	-5.5%	0.50	+6.5%	-1.7%	+1.6%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CBJ	2.11#13 of 32	1.99#13 of 32	2.06goals
STL	1.94#21 of 32	1.99#12 of 32	1.88goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CBJ	0.50#26 of 32	0.56#16 of 32	0.51goals
STL	0.40#32 of 32	0.59#20 of 32	0.42goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
CBJ
Zach Werenski D	-2.5%	Played
Adam Fantilli C	-2.2%	Played
Sean Monahan C	-1.5%	Played
Dmitri Voronkov L	-1.4%	Played
Charlie Coyle C	-1.3%	Played
STL
Robert Thomas C	-2.6%	Played
Jimmy Snuggerud R	-1.8%	Played
Dylan Holloway L	-1.8%	Played
Pavel Buchnevich L	-1.3%	Played
Jake Neighbours L	-0.9%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
CBJ
Damon Severson D	+0.9%	Played
Kent Johnson C	+0.8%	Played
Adam Fantilli C	+0.8%	Played
Zach Werenski D	+0.6%	Played
Dmitri Voronkov L	+0.6%	Played
STL
Dylan Holloway L	+0.8%	Played
Cam Fowler D	+0.7%	Played
Dalibor Dvorsky R	+0.7%	Played
Jake Neighbours L	+0.7%	Played
Jimmy Snuggerud R	+0.7%	Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (5.81 → 5.85)

2:02 AM 5.81 first run
3:36 AM 5.64 -0.17STL goalie: Jordan Binnington → Joel Hofer -0.17
5:23 AM 5.64 no change
11:17 AM 5.66 +0.02Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.02; Line 6 o-119 → 6 o-118
12:17 PM 5.83 +0.17STL goalie: Joel Hofer → Jordan Binnington +0.17; STL lineup: Lou Korac Oct 10 12:05 PM; Line 6 o-118 → 6 o-123
12:45 PM 5.83 Line 6 o-123 → 6 o-124
1:17 PM 5.83 CBJ goalie Jet Greaves: Likely → Confirmed
2:17 PM 5.83 Line 6 o-124 → 6 o-123
3:01 PM 5.83 Line 6 o-123 → 6 o-109
3:17 PM 5.83 no change
3:20 PM 5.83 no change
3:45 PM 5.85 +0.02Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated +0.01
4:18 PM 5.85 no change
5:18 PM 5.85 no change
5:46 PM 5.85 Line 6 o-109 → 6 o-123
6:18 PM 5.85 no change
6:45 PM 5.85 CBJ lineup: Mark Scheig Oct 10 6:43 PM; STL lineup: Jeremy Rutherford Oct 10 6:42 PM; Line 6 o-123 → 6 o-122

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: CBJ and STL project under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (CBJ 3.02, STL 2.83). At 5-on-5, CBJ is good (2.06) and STL is bad (1.88); on the power play, CBJ is bad (0.51) and STL is trash (0.42). CBJ faces Jordan Binnington, a Trash goalie, grade 7 (+2.8%); STL faces Jet Greaves, a Strong goalie, grade 81 (-5.5%). Other factors: CBJ played yesterday (-8%); injuries help CBJ 2.4%; STL's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); injuries help STL 1.6%. CBJ 3.02: 0.10 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: Jordan Binnington in goal +0.08 (a Trash goalie, grade 7, +2.8%); injuries +0.07 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.4%); team speed +0.05 (it skates faster than STL, +1.7%). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.25 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); power play -0.07 (its power play ranks #26, STL's penalty kill and penalty habits #16). STL 2.83: 0.30 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.17 (CBJ played yesterday, +6.5%); injuries +0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.6%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.16 (its attack ranks #21 of 32, CBJ's defense #12); Jet Greaves in goal -0.16 (a Strong goalie, grade 81, -5.5%); power play -0.15 (its power play ranks #32, CBJ's penalty kill and penalty habits #20); team speed -0.05 (it skates slower than CBJ, -1.7%). The model projects 5.85 total goals against a 6 line, with a 43% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 8 goals (CBJ 3, STL 5), so it went over 6 and the call was wrong.

10:00 PM ETAVOID

U 6 ✓ under

LAK#22 OFF / #11 DEF12.54●

D. Kuemper ✓ Mid 41

VGK#3 OFF / #3 DEF23.28●

C. Hart ✓ Trash 14

3 goals · proj 5.81 · P(7+) 40%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
LAK	1.67	0.37	+1.4%	0.50	–	-0.2%	-1.4%
VGK	1.99	0.78	-1.5%	0.50	–	+0.1%	+1.6%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
LAK	1.90#26 of 32	1.78#1 of 32	1.67goals
VGK	2.18#8 of 32	1.86#2 of 32	1.99goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
LAK	0.49#27 of 32	0.42#1 of 32	0.37goals
VGK	0.71#3 of 32	0.61#24 of 32	0.78goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
LAK
Artemi Panarin L	-3.9%	Played
Adrian Kempe R	-3.2%	Played
Quinton Byfield R	-1.6%	Played
Kevin Fiala L	-1.4%	Didn't play
Alex Laferriere R	-0.9%	Played
VGK
Jack Eichel C	-4.8%	Played
Mitch Marner R	-4.0%	Played
Mark Stone R	-3.9%	Played
Tomas Hertl C	-3.7%	Played
Ivan Barbashev L	-1.8%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
LAK
Brandt Clarke D	+1.8%	Played
Artemi Panarin L	+1.1%	Played
Kevin Fiala L	+1.1%	Didn't play
Adrian Kempe R	+1.0%	Played
Drew Doughty D	+1.0%	Played
VGK
Tomas Hertl C	+1.6%	Played
Shea Theodore D	+1.3%	Played
Mark Stone R	+1.3%	Played
Ivan Barbashev L	+1.2%	Played
Noah Hanifin D	+1.1%	Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (5.81 → 5.81)

2:02 AM 5.81 first run
3:36 AM 5.81 LAK goalie: Anton Forsberg → Darcy Kuemper -0.00
5:23 AM 5.81 no change
11:18 AM 5.81 Line 6 o-110 → 6 o-118
12:17 PM 5.81 no change
12:45 PM 5.81 no change
1:17 PM 5.81 no change
2:17 PM 5.81 no change
3:01 PM 5.81 no change
3:17 PM 5.81 no change
3:20 PM 5.81 no change
3:45 PM 5.81 no change
4:18 PM 5.81 no change
5:18 PM 5.81 no change
5:46 PM 5.81 LAK goalie Darcy Kuemper: Likely → Confirmed
6:18 PM 5.81 no change
6:45 PM 5.81 no change
7:18 PM 5.81 no change
7:39 PM 5.81 no change
8:18 PM 5.81 no change
9:18 PM 5.81 no change
9:46 PM 5.81 LAK lineup: Zach Dooley Oct 10 9:38 PM; VGK goalie Carter Hart: Likely → Confirmed; VGK lineup: Hannah Kirkell Oct 10 9:33 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: LAK projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (LAK 2.54). At 5-on-5, LAK is trash (1.67) and VGK is mid (1.99); on the power play, LAK is trash (0.37) and VGK is great (0.78). LAK faces Carter Hart, a Trash goalie, grade 14 (+1.4%); VGK faces Darcy Kuemper, a Mid goalie, grade 41 (-1.5%). Other factors: injuries help VGK 1.6%. LAK 2.54: 0.59 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: Carter Hart in goal +0.04 (a Trash goalie, grade 14, +1.4%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.38 (its attack ranks #26 of 32, VGK's defense #1); power play -0.20 (its power play ranks #27, VGK's penalty kill and penalty habits #1); injuries -0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.4%). VGK 3.28: 0.15 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: power play +0.21 (its power play ranks #3, LAK's penalty kill and penalty habits #24); injuries +0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.6%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.06 (its attack ranks #8 of 32, LAK's defense #2); Darcy Kuemper in goal -0.05 (a Mid goalie, grade 41, -1.5%). The model projects 5.81 total goals against a 6 line, with a 40% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 3 goals (LAK 1, VGK 2), so it stayed under 6 and the call was right.