Friday, October 16, 2026

2 games · 1 flag · 1 of 2 went over the line · avg 6.5 goals (projected 6.7) · flags 0-1-0 (-1.00u at close) · calls: 🔨 SLAM 0-1-0 · 1U – · PASS – · AVOID 0 of 1 stayed under

Breakdown (for scoring):greatgoodmidbadtrash
TeamResultGoaliesProjection breakdown
TeamGProjTotal goalsProj totalP(7+)LinePickGoalie5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
PIT#9 OFF / #19 DEF22.88●7O 6.56.9852%6.5 → 6.59:00 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over		A. Silovs ✓ Trash 22.130.49-1.4%0.51–-5.7%-1.0%
COL#2 OFF / #2 DEF54.09●M. Blackwood ✓ Mid 412.630.53+4.4%0.49–+6.4%+1.1%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
PIT2.31#3 of 321.88#5 of 322.13goals0.59#15 of 320.46#3 of 320.49goals
COL2.59#1 of 322.07#20 of 322.63goals0.55#19 of 320.53#7 of 320.53goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-gamePlayerIf outPre-game
PITSidney Crosby C-3.8%PlaysTommy Novak C+1.0%Plays
Bryan Rust R-3.0%PlaysBen Kindel C+0.9%Plays
Rickard Rakell R-2.8%PlaysSamuel Girard D+0.9%Plays
Evgeni Malkin C-2.6%PlaysEgor Chinakhov R+0.6%OUT
Erik Karlsson D-1.8%PlaysKaedan Korczak D+0.5%Plays
COLNathan MacKinnon C-6.7%PlaysMartin Necas C+1.5%Plays
Martin Necas C-5.2%PlaysSam Malinski D+1.4%Plays
Cale Makar D-3.1%PlaysNathan MacKinnon C+1.3%Plays
Brock Nelson C-2.9%PlaysBrett Kulak D+0.9%Plays
Artturi Lehkonen L-2.5%PlaysCale Makar D+0.8%Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.99 → 6.98)
  • 12:01 AM 6.99 first run
  • 3:19 AM 6.99 PIT goalie Arturs Silovs: Projected → Likely; COL goalie Mackenzie Blackwood: Projected → Likely
  • 4:42 AM 6.99 no change
  • 11:18 AM 7.01 +0.02Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.02; Line 6.5 o-120 → 6.5 o-121
  • 12:17 PM 7.01 no change
  • 1:17 PM 7.01 COL goalie Mackenzie Blackwood: Likely → Confirmed
  • 2:17 PM 7.01 PIT goalie Arturs Silovs: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-121 → 6.5 o-125
  • 2:33 PM 7.01 no change
  • 2:51 PM 7.01 Line 6.5 o-125 → 6.5 o-127
  • 3:17 PM 7.01 no change
  • 4:17 PM 7.01 Line 6.5 o-127 → 6.5 o-128
  • 5:17 PM 7.01 Line 6.5 o-128 → 6.5 o-127
  • 6:08 PM 7.01 no change
  • 6:17 PM 7.01 no change
  • 7:17 PM 7.01 Line 6.5 o-127 → 6.5 o-126
  • 8:17 PM 7.01 Line 6.5 o-126 → 6.5 o-130
  • 8:34 PM 6.98 -0.03Injuries / lineup: Egor Chinakhov (PIT) out, Ville Koivunen (PIT) back in -0.03; PIT lineup: @penguins Oct 16 8:32 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: PIT projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (PIT 2.88). The 6.98 total looks high, but most of it comes from COL; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, PIT is good (2.13) and COL is great (2.63); on the power play, PIT is bad (0.49) and COL is bad (0.53). PIT faces Mackenzie Blackwood, a Mid goalie, grade 41 (-1.4%); COL faces Arturs Silovs, a Trash goalie, grade 2 (+4.4%). Other factors: PIT's team speed costs 5.7%; COL's team speed adds 6.4%. PIT 2.88: 0.23 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.10 (its attack ranks #3 of 32, COL's defense #5). Holding it back: team speed -0.18 (it skates slower than COL, -5.7%); power play -0.08 (its power play ranks #15, COL's penalty kill and penalty habits #3); Mackenzie Blackwood in goal -0.05 (a Mid goalie, grade 41, -1.4%); injuries -0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.0%). COL 4.09: 0.98 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.59 (its attack ranks #1 of 32, PIT's defense #20); team speed +0.24 (it skates faster than PIT, +6.4%); Arturs Silovs in goal +0.16 (a Trash goalie, grade 2, +4.4%); injuries +0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.1%). Holding it back: power play -0.05 (its power play ranks #19, PIT's penalty kill and penalty habits #7). The model projects 6.98 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 52% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (PIT 2, COL 5), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.
BOS#21 OFF / #17 DEF43.20●6U 6.56.4551%6.5 → 6.510:00 PM ET
🔨 SLAM ⚠ lineup
L
paper L -1.00u		M. DiPietro ✓ OK 212.280.56-0.8%0.51–-3.7%+0.1%
ANA#6 OFF / #23 DEF23.25●L. Dostal ✓ OK 332.080.65+0.3%0.50–+3.5%-3.1%
⚠ Lineup change since 12:01 AM: Cutter Gauthier now Plays (was Day-to-day, seen 9:45 PM) · ANA +3.0% · projection 6.45 → 6.45
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
BOS2.20#7 of 322.11#23 of 322.28goals0.53#22 of 320.59#20 of 320.56goals
ANA2.06#15 of 322.06#19 of 322.08goals0.63#11 of 320.57#18 of 320.65goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-gamePlayerIf outPre-game
BOSDavid Pastrnak R-4.2%PlaysDavid Pastrnak R+0.9%Plays
Morgan Geekie C-3.3%PlaysMorgan Geekie C+0.7%Plays
Pavel Zacha C-2.4%PlaysMason Lohrei D+0.7%Plays
Elias Lindholm C-1.5%PlaysCasey Mittelstadt C+0.5%Plays
Casey Mittelstadt C-1.0%PlaysTanner Jeannot L+0.3%Plays
ANALeo Carlsson C-3.2%PlaysLeo Carlsson C+0.6%Plays
Beckett Sennecke R-3.2%PlaysBeckett Sennecke R+0.5%Plays
⚠ Cutter Gauthier L-3.0%Playswas Day-to-day⚠ Cutter Gauthier L+0.4%Playswas Day-to-day
Mikael Granlund C-2.1%OUTIan Moore D+0.4%OUT · IR
Troy Terry R-1.5%OUT · IRJackson LaCombe D+0.3%Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.22 → 6.45)
  • 12:01 AM 6.22 first run
  • 3:19 AM 6.22 BOS goalie Jeremy Swayman: Projected → Likely; ANA goalie Lukas Dostal: Projected → Likely
  • 4:42 AM 6.22 Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o+104
  • 11:18 AM 6.24 +0.02Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.02
  • 12:17 PM 6.24 no change
  • 1:17 PM 6.23 -0.02Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated -0.01; ANA lineup: Patrick Present Oct 16 1:17 PM
  • 2:17 PM 6.23 ANA goalie Lukas Dostal: Likely → Confirmed
  • 2:33 PM 6.45 +0.22BOS goalie: Jeremy Swayman → Michael DiPietro +0.22; Line 6.5 o+104 → 6.5 o-104
  • 2:51 PM 6.45 Line 6.5 o-104 → 6.5 o-105
  • 3:17 PM 6.45 no change
  • 4:17 PM 6.45 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.45 no change
  • 6:08 PM 6.45 no change
  • 6:17 PM 6.45 no change
  • 7:17 PM 6.45 no change
  • 8:17 PM 6.45 Line 6.5 o-105 → 6.5 o-106
  • 8:35 PM 6.45 no change
  • 8:39 PM 6.45 no change
  • 8:45 PM 6.45 no change
  • 9:00 PM 6.45 no change
  • 9:17 PM 6.45 no change
  • 9:45 PM 6.45 BOS lineup: Belle Fraser Oct 16 9:39 PM; Cutter Gauthier (ANA) off day-to-day; ANA lineup: Zach Cavanagh Oct 16 9:38 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

🔨 SLAM: both teams project as high-scoring (BOS 3.20, ANA 3.25; cutoff 3.09), the line is 6.5, and both are good or better at 5-on-5, the strongest over spot the model has. At 5-on-5, BOS is great (2.28) and ANA is good (2.08); on the power play, BOS is mid (0.56) and ANA is great (0.65). BOS faces Lukas Dostal, an OK goalie, grade 33 (-0.8%); ANA faces Michael DiPietro, an OK goalie, grade 21 (+0.3%). Other factors: BOS's team speed costs 3.7%; ANA's team speed adds 3.5%; injuries cost ANA 3.1%. BOS 3.20: 0.08 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.24 (its attack ranks #7 of 32, ANA's defense #23). Holding it back: team speed -0.12 (it skates slower than ANA, -3.7%); Lukas Dostal in goal -0.03 (an OK goalie, grade 33, -0.8%); power play -0.01 (its power play ranks #22, ANA's penalty kill and penalty habits #20). ANA 3.25: 0.14 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: team speed +0.11 (it skates faster than BOS, +3.5%); power play +0.08 (its power play ranks #11, BOS's penalty kill and penalty habits #18); 5-on-5 matchup +0.04 (its attack ranks #15 of 32, BOS's defense #19); Michael DiPietro in goal +0.01 (an OK goalie, grade 21, +0.3%). Holding it back: injuries -0.10 (missing players on both teams, net, -3.1%). The model projects 6.45 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 51% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over 55% of the time at the opening line and 56.5% at the closing line in 2021-26. Final: 6 goals (BOS 4, ANA 2), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was wrong.
9:00 PM ETAVOID
O 6.5 ✗ went over
PIT#9 OFF / #19 DEF22.88●
A. Silovs ✓ Trash 2
COL#2 OFF / #2 DEF54.09●
M. Blackwood ✓ Mid 41
7 goals · proj 6.98 · P(7+) 52%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
PIT2.130.49-1.4%0.51–-5.7%-1.0%
COL2.630.53+4.4%0.49–+6.4%+1.1%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
PIT2.31#3 of 321.88#5 of 322.13goals
COL2.59#1 of 322.07#20 of 322.63goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
PIT0.59#15 of 320.46#3 of 320.49goals
COL0.55#19 of 320.53#7 of 320.53goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPre-game
PIT
Sidney Crosby C-3.8%Plays
Bryan Rust R-3.0%Plays
Rickard Rakell R-2.8%Plays
Evgeni Malkin C-2.6%Plays
Erik Karlsson D-1.8%Plays
COL
Nathan MacKinnon C-6.7%Plays
Martin Necas C-5.2%Plays
Cale Makar D-3.1%Plays
Brock Nelson C-2.9%Plays
Artturi Lehkonen L-2.5%Plays
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-game
PIT
Tommy Novak C+1.0%Plays
Ben Kindel C+0.9%Plays
Samuel Girard D+0.9%Plays
Egor Chinakhov R+0.6%OUT
Kaedan Korczak D+0.5%Plays
COL
Martin Necas C+1.5%Plays
Sam Malinski D+1.4%Plays
Nathan MacKinnon C+1.3%Plays
Brett Kulak D+0.9%Plays
Cale Makar D+0.8%Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.99 → 6.98)
  • 12:01 AM 6.99 first run
  • 3:19 AM 6.99 PIT goalie Arturs Silovs: Projected → Likely; COL goalie Mackenzie Blackwood: Projected → Likely
  • 4:42 AM 6.99 no change
  • 11:18 AM 7.01 +0.02Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.02; Line 6.5 o-120 → 6.5 o-121
  • 12:17 PM 7.01 no change
  • 1:17 PM 7.01 COL goalie Mackenzie Blackwood: Likely → Confirmed
  • 2:17 PM 7.01 PIT goalie Arturs Silovs: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-121 → 6.5 o-125
  • 2:33 PM 7.01 no change
  • 2:51 PM 7.01 Line 6.5 o-125 → 6.5 o-127
  • 3:17 PM 7.01 no change
  • 4:17 PM 7.01 Line 6.5 o-127 → 6.5 o-128
  • 5:17 PM 7.01 Line 6.5 o-128 → 6.5 o-127
  • 6:08 PM 7.01 no change
  • 6:17 PM 7.01 no change
  • 7:17 PM 7.01 Line 6.5 o-127 → 6.5 o-126
  • 8:17 PM 7.01 Line 6.5 o-126 → 6.5 o-130
  • 8:34 PM 6.98 -0.03Injuries / lineup: Egor Chinakhov (PIT) out, Ville Koivunen (PIT) back in -0.03; PIT lineup: @penguins Oct 16 8:32 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: PIT projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (PIT 2.88). The 6.98 total looks high, but most of it comes from COL; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, PIT is good (2.13) and COL is great (2.63); on the power play, PIT is bad (0.49) and COL is bad (0.53). PIT faces Mackenzie Blackwood, a Mid goalie, grade 41 (-1.4%); COL faces Arturs Silovs, a Trash goalie, grade 2 (+4.4%). Other factors: PIT's team speed costs 5.7%; COL's team speed adds 6.4%. PIT 2.88: 0.23 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.10 (its attack ranks #3 of 32, COL's defense #5). Holding it back: team speed -0.18 (it skates slower than COL, -5.7%); power play -0.08 (its power play ranks #15, COL's penalty kill and penalty habits #3); Mackenzie Blackwood in goal -0.05 (a Mid goalie, grade 41, -1.4%); injuries -0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.0%). COL 4.09: 0.98 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.59 (its attack ranks #1 of 32, PIT's defense #20); team speed +0.24 (it skates faster than PIT, +6.4%); Arturs Silovs in goal +0.16 (a Trash goalie, grade 2, +4.4%); injuries +0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.1%). Holding it back: power play -0.05 (its power play ranks #19, PIT's penalty kill and penalty habits #7). The model projects 6.98 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 52% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (PIT 2, COL 5), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.
10:00 PM ET🔨 SLAM ⚠ lineup
U 6.5 L
paper L -1.00u
BOS#21 OFF / #17 DEF43.20●
M. DiPietro ✓ OK 21
ANA#6 OFF / #23 DEF23.25●
L. Dostal ✓ OK 33
6 goals · proj 6.45 · P(7+) 51%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
BOS2.280.56-0.8%0.51–-3.7%+0.1%
ANA2.080.65+0.3%0.50–+3.5%-3.1%
Why this call
⚠ Lineup change since 12:01 AM: Cutter Gauthier now Plays (was Day-to-day, seen 9:45 PM) · ANA +3.0% · projection 6.45 → 6.45
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
BOS2.20#7 of 322.11#23 of 322.28goals
ANA2.06#15 of 322.06#19 of 322.08goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
BOS0.53#22 of 320.59#20 of 320.56goals
ANA0.63#11 of 320.57#18 of 320.65goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPre-game
BOS
David Pastrnak R-4.2%Plays
Morgan Geekie C-3.3%Plays
Pavel Zacha C-2.4%Plays
Elias Lindholm C-1.5%Plays
Casey Mittelstadt C-1.0%Plays
ANA
Leo Carlsson C-3.2%Plays
Beckett Sennecke R-3.2%Plays
⚠ Cutter Gauthier L-3.0%Playswas Day-to-day
Mikael Granlund C-2.1%OUT
Troy Terry R-1.5%OUT · IR
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-game
BOS
David Pastrnak R+0.9%Plays
Morgan Geekie C+0.7%Plays
Mason Lohrei D+0.7%Plays
Casey Mittelstadt C+0.5%Plays
Tanner Jeannot L+0.3%Plays
ANA
Leo Carlsson C+0.6%Plays
Beckett Sennecke R+0.5%Plays
⚠ Cutter Gauthier L+0.4%Playswas Day-to-day
Ian Moore D+0.4%OUT · IR
Jackson LaCombe D+0.3%Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.22 → 6.45)
  • 12:01 AM 6.22 first run
  • 3:19 AM 6.22 BOS goalie Jeremy Swayman: Projected → Likely; ANA goalie Lukas Dostal: Projected → Likely
  • 4:42 AM 6.22 Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o+104
  • 11:18 AM 6.24 +0.02Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.02
  • 12:17 PM 6.24 no change
  • 1:17 PM 6.23 -0.02Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated -0.01; ANA lineup: Patrick Present Oct 16 1:17 PM
  • 2:17 PM 6.23 ANA goalie Lukas Dostal: Likely → Confirmed
  • 2:33 PM 6.45 +0.22BOS goalie: Jeremy Swayman → Michael DiPietro +0.22; Line 6.5 o+104 → 6.5 o-104
  • 2:51 PM 6.45 Line 6.5 o-104 → 6.5 o-105
  • 3:17 PM 6.45 no change
  • 4:17 PM 6.45 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.45 no change
  • 6:08 PM 6.45 no change
  • 6:17 PM 6.45 no change
  • 7:17 PM 6.45 no change
  • 8:17 PM 6.45 Line 6.5 o-105 → 6.5 o-106
  • 8:35 PM 6.45 no change
  • 8:39 PM 6.45 no change
  • 8:45 PM 6.45 no change
  • 9:00 PM 6.45 no change
  • 9:17 PM 6.45 no change
  • 9:45 PM 6.45 BOS lineup: Belle Fraser Oct 16 9:39 PM; Cutter Gauthier (ANA) off day-to-day; ANA lineup: Zach Cavanagh Oct 16 9:38 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

🔨 SLAM: both teams project as high-scoring (BOS 3.20, ANA 3.25; cutoff 3.09), the line is 6.5, and both are good or better at 5-on-5, the strongest over spot the model has. At 5-on-5, BOS is great (2.28) and ANA is good (2.08); on the power play, BOS is mid (0.56) and ANA is great (0.65). BOS faces Lukas Dostal, an OK goalie, grade 33 (-0.8%); ANA faces Michael DiPietro, an OK goalie, grade 21 (+0.3%). Other factors: BOS's team speed costs 3.7%; ANA's team speed adds 3.5%; injuries cost ANA 3.1%. BOS 3.20: 0.08 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.24 (its attack ranks #7 of 32, ANA's defense #23). Holding it back: team speed -0.12 (it skates slower than ANA, -3.7%); Lukas Dostal in goal -0.03 (an OK goalie, grade 33, -0.8%); power play -0.01 (its power play ranks #22, ANA's penalty kill and penalty habits #20). ANA 3.25: 0.14 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: team speed +0.11 (it skates faster than BOS, +3.5%); power play +0.08 (its power play ranks #11, BOS's penalty kill and penalty habits #18); 5-on-5 matchup +0.04 (its attack ranks #15 of 32, BOS's defense #19); Michael DiPietro in goal +0.01 (an OK goalie, grade 21, +0.3%). Holding it back: injuries -0.10 (missing players on both teams, net, -3.1%). The model projects 6.45 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 51% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over 55% of the time at the opening line and 56.5% at the closing line in 2021-26. Final: 6 goals (BOS 4, ANA 2), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was wrong.

Two rows per game (away, then home). ● = team projected high-scoring. Proj = (5v5 + PP + Oth) × goalie (Gl) × back-to-back (B2B) × team speed (Spd) × injuries (Inj). Hover or tap any underlined label for an explanation.