Saturday, October 24, 2026

12 games · 2 flags · 6 of 12 went over the line · avg 6.8 goals (projected 6.2) · flags 1-1-0 (-0.22u at close) · calls: 🔨 SLAM 1-0-0 · 1U 0-1-0 · PASS – · AVOID 5 of 10 stayed under

Breakdown (for scoring):greatgoodmidbadtrash

Team

Result

Goalies

Projection breakdown

Team

Proj

Total goals

Proj total

P(7+)

Line

Pick

Goalie

5v5

Oth

B2B

Spd

Inj

BUF#17 OFF / #19 DEF

3.54●

7O 6.5

6.87

55%

6.5 → 6.5

7:00 PM ET
🔨 SLAM
W
paper W +0.78u

U. Luukkonen ✓ OK 27

2.28

0.65

+0.1%

0.49

–

+1.6%

+1.5%

WSH#9 OFF / #24 DEF

3.33●

C. Lindgren ✓ OK 23

2.28

0.57

-0.3%

0.49

–

-0.9%

+0.8%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
BUF	2.11#11 of 32	2.20#27 of 32	2.28goals	0.53#23 of 32	0.68#30 of 32	0.65goals
WSH	2.30#4 of 32	2.02#15 of 32	2.28goals	0.52#25 of 32	0.60#23 of 32	0.57goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Pre-game	Player	If out	Pre-game
BUF	Tage Thompson C	-4.7%	Plays	Noah Ostlund C	+1.3%	Plays
	Jack Quinn R	-2.2%	Plays	Rasmus Dahlin D	+1.2%	Plays
	Rasmus Dahlin D	-2.2%	Plays	Zach Benson L	+1.1%	Plays
	Josh Doan R	-1.8%	Plays	Josh Doan R	+1.0%	Plays
	Jason Zucker L	-1.5%	Plays	Tage Thompson C	+0.8%	Plays
WSH	Alex Ovechkin L	-3.5%	Plays	Jakob Chychrun D	+1.1%	Plays
	Tom Wilson R	-3.0%	Plays	Justin Sourdif C	+0.7%	Plays
	Dylan Strome C	-2.8%	Plays	Dylan Strome C	+0.6%	Plays
	Jakob Chychrun D	-2.5%	Plays	Rasmus Sandin D	+0.5%	OUT · IR
	Ryan Leonard R	-1.7%	Plays	Alex Ovechkin L	+0.5%	Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.84 → 6.87)

12:01 AM 6.84 first run
3:25 AM 6.85 +0.01BUF goalie: Colten Ellis → Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen +0.01; Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-114
4:36 AM 6.85 no change
11:18 AM 6.85 WSH goalie Charlie Lindgren: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-114 → 6.5 o-118
12:18 PM 6.87 +0.02Injuries / lineup: Pierre-Luc Dubois (WSH) back in +0.02; BUF goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: Likely → Confirmed; Justin Sourdif (WSH) off day-to-day; WSH lineup: Tarik El-Bashir Oct 24 12:13 PM; Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-120
12:45 PM 6.87 no change
1:17 PM 6.87 no change
2:14 PM 6.87 no change
2:17 PM 6.87 no change
3:17 PM 6.87 Line 6.5 o-120 → 6.5 o-125
4:18 PM 6.87 Line 6.5 o-125 → 6.5 o-129
4:59 PM 6.87 no change
5:18 PM 6.87 Line 6.5 o-129 → 6.5 o-130
6:18 PM 6.87 no change
6:46 PM 6.87 BUF lineup: Buffalo Sabres Oct 24 6:40 PM; WSH lineup: Sammi Silber Oct 24 6:36 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

🔨 SLAM: both teams project as high-scoring (BUF 3.54, WSH 3.33; cutoff 3.10), the line is 6.5, and both are good or better at 5-on-5, the strongest over spot the model has. At 5-on-5, BUF is great (2.28) and WSH is great (2.28); on the power play, BUF is great (0.65) and WSH is mid (0.57). BUF faces Charlie Lindgren, an OK goalie, grade 23 (+0.1%); WSH faces Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, an OK goalie, grade 27 (-0.3%). BUF 3.54: 0.42 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.24 (its attack ranks #11 of 32, WSH's defense #27); power play +0.07 (its power play ranks #23, WSH's penalty kill and penalty habits #30); team speed +0.05 (it skates faster than WSH, +1.6%); injuries +0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.5%). WSH 3.33: 0.21 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.24 (its attack ranks #4 of 32, BUF's defense #15); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.8%). Holding it back: team speed -0.03 (it skates slower than BUF, -0.9%); power play -0.01 (its power play ranks #25, BUF's penalty kill and penalty habits #23). The model projects 6.87 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 55% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over 55% of the time at the opening line and 56.5% at the closing line in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (BUF 3, WSH 4), so it went over 6.5 and the call was right.

TOR#19 OFF / #29 DEF

2.91●

9O 6.5

6.58

49%

6.5 → 6.5

7:00 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over

A. Stolarz ✓ Good 73

1.90

0.63

+1.6%

0.50

–

-4.2%

-1.3%

EDM#6 OFF / #17 DEF

3.68●

T. Jarry ✓ Trash 12

2.33

0.84

-4.3%

0.49

–

+4.8%

+0.3%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
TOR	2.00#19 of 32	1.94#11 of 32	1.90goals	0.62#10 of 32	0.56#13 of 32	0.63goals
EDM	2.15#9 of 32	2.21#28 of 32	2.33goals	0.71#3 of 32	0.65#28 of 32	0.84goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Pre-game	Player	If out	Pre-game
TOR	William Nylander R	-4.6%	Plays	Darren Raddysh D	+0.6%	Plays
	Auston Matthews C	-4.2%	Plays	Jack Roslovic C	+0.4%	Plays
	John Tavares C	-2.9%	OUT · IR	Kirill Marchenko R	+0.4%	Plays
	Kirill Marchenko R	-1.6%	Plays	Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	+0.3%	Plays
	Darren Raddysh D	-1.3%	Plays	Nick Paul L	+0.3%	Plays
EDM	Connor McDavid C	-8.3%	Plays	Connor McDavid C	+1.5%	Plays
	Leon Draisaitl C	-6.8%	Plays	Leon Draisaitl C	+1.5%	Plays
	Evan Bouchard D	-4.9%	Plays	Evan Bouchard D	+1.4%	Plays
	Zach Hyman L	-3.0%	Plays	Vasily Podkolzin R	+1.3%	Plays
	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C	-1.8%	Plays	Zach Hyman L	+0.7%	Plays

Also out: EDM: Mattias Ekholm -0.6% attack, +0.4% defense

How the projection moved on game day (6.69 → 6.58)

12:01 AM 6.69 first run
3:25 AM 6.69 Line 6.5 o-150 → 6.5 o-149
4:36 AM 6.69 no change
11:18 AM 6.69 Line 6.5 o-149 → 6.5 o-156
12:18 PM 6.69 no change
12:45 PM 6.69 no change
1:17 PM 6.69 Line 6.5 o-156 → 6.5 o-158
2:14 PM 6.69 no change
2:17 PM 6.69 no change
3:17 PM 6.69 no change
4:18 PM 6.69 no change
4:59 PM 6.58 -0.11TOR goalie: Sergei Bobrovsky → Anthony Stolarz -0.11
5:18 PM 6.58 Line 6.5 o-158 → 6.5 o-160
6:18 PM 6.58 Line 6.5 o-160 → 6.5 o-163
6:46 PM 6.58 no change

AVOID: TOR projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (TOR 2.91). The 6.58 total looks high, but most of it comes from EDM; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, TOR is bad (1.90) and EDM is great (2.33); on the power play, TOR is good (0.63) and EDM is great (0.84). TOR faces Tristan Jarry, a Trash goalie, grade 12 (+1.6%); EDM faces Anthony Stolarz, a Good goalie, grade 73 (-4.3%). Other factors: TOR's team speed costs 4.2%; EDM's team speed adds 4.8%. TOR 2.91: 0.21 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: Tristan Jarry in goal +0.05 (a Trash goalie, grade 12, +1.6%); power play +0.05 (its power play ranks #10, EDM's penalty kill and penalty habits #13). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.14 (its attack ranks #19 of 32, EDM's defense #11); team speed -0.13 (it skates slower than EDM, -4.2%); injuries -0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.3%). EDM 3.68: 0.56 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.29 (its attack ranks #9 of 32, TOR's defense #28); power play +0.26 (its power play ranks #3, TOR's penalty kill and penalty habits #28); team speed +0.17 (it skates faster than TOR, +4.8%). Holding it back: Anthony Stolarz in goal -0.16 (a Good goalie, grade 73, -4.3%). The model projects 6.58 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 49% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 9 goals (TOR 7, EDM 2), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

TBL#3 OFF / #5 DEF

2.97●

9O 6.5

6.51

49%

6.5 →

9:00 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over

D. Hildeby ✓ Mid 52

2.19

0.59

-0.8%

0.51

-8.0%

-2.2%

+1.2%

UTA#5 OFF / #6 DEF

3.54●

K. Vejmelka ✓ OK 32

2.06

0.74

-2.4%

0.49

+6.5%

+2.7%

+0.9%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
TBL	2.35#3 of 32	1.89#6 of 32	2.19goals	0.58#15 of 32	0.56#12 of 32	0.59goals
UTA	2.23#7 of 32	1.88#4 of 32	2.06goals	0.72#2 of 32	0.56#14 of 32	0.74goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Pre-game	Player	If out	Pre-game
TBL	Nikita Kucherov R	-7.3%	Plays	Gage Goncalves C	+1.3%	Plays
	Jake Guentzel C	-5.2%	Plays	Pontus Holmberg R	+1.1%	Plays
	Brandon Hagel L	-5.1%	Plays	Nikita Kucherov R	+1.1%	Plays
	Brayden Point C	-3.5%	Plays	Jake Guentzel C	+1.0%	Plays
	Anthony Cirelli C	-2.8%	Plays	Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	+0.9%	Plays
UTA	Dylan Guenther R	-3.9%	Plays	Clayton Keller R	+1.6%	Plays
	Clayton Keller R	-3.9%	Plays	Nate Schmidt D	+1.4%	Plays
	Nick Schmaltz C	-3.5%	Plays	Barrett Hayton C	+1.1%	Plays
	Logan Cooley C	-2.6%	Plays	Nick Schmaltz C	+1.0%	Plays
	Mikhail Sergachev D	-1.6%	Plays	Dylan Guenther R	+0.9%	Plays

Also out: UTA: John Marino +0.2% attack, +0.8% defense; Michael Carcone -0.6% attack, +0.7% defense

How the projection moved on game day (6.27 → 6.51)

12:01 AM 6.27 first run
3:25 AM 6.48 +0.21TBL goalie: Andrei Vasilevskiy → Dennis Hildeby +0.21; Victor Hedman (TBL) day-to-day
4:36 AM 6.48 no change
11:18 AM 6.50 +0.03Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.03; TBL lineup: Gabby Shirley Oct 24 11:08 AM; Line 6.5 o-110 → 6.5 o-119
12:18 PM 6.50 Line 6.5 o-119 → 6.5 o-115
12:45 PM 6.50 UTA lineup: Cole Bagley Oct 24 12:44 PM
1:17 PM 6.50 UTA goalie Karel Vejmelka: Likely → Confirmed
2:14 PM 6.51 +0.01Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated +0.01
2:17 PM 6.51 no change
3:17 PM 6.51 no change
4:18 PM 6.51 no change
4:59 PM 6.51 no change
5:18 PM 6.51 no change
6:18 PM 6.51 no change
6:46 PM 6.51 no change
7:18 PM 6.51 no change
7:22 PM 6.51 no change
8:18 PM 6.51 no change
8:46 PM 6.51 Injuries / lineup: Dominic James (TBL) out, Max Crozier (TBL) out, Victor Hedman (TBL) out, Emil Lilleberg (TBL) back in -0.00; TBL goalie Dennis Hildeby: Likely → Confirmed; TBL lineup: Gabby Shirley Oct 24 8:37 PM; UTA lineup: Utah Mammoth Oct 24 8:35 PM

AVOID: TBL projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (TBL 2.97). The 6.51 total looks high, but most of it comes from UTA; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, TBL is great (2.19) and UTA is good (2.06); on the power play, TBL is mid (0.59) and UTA is great (0.74). TBL faces Karel Vejmelka, an OK goalie, grade 32 (-0.8%); UTA faces Dennis Hildeby, a Mid goalie, grade 52 (-2.4%). Other factors: TBL played yesterday (-8%); TBL's team speed costs 2.2%; UTA's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); UTA's team speed adds 2.7%. TBL 2.97: 0.15 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.15 (its attack ranks #3 of 32, UTA's defense #6); injuries +0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.2%). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.26 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); team speed -0.07 (it skates slower than UTA, -2.2%); Karel Vejmelka in goal -0.03 (an OK goalie, grade 32, -0.8%). UTA 3.54: 0.43 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.21 (TBL played yesterday, +6.5%); power play +0.16 (its power play ranks #2, TBL's penalty kill and penalty habits #14); team speed +0.09 (it skates faster than TBL, +2.7%); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.9%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.02 (its attack ranks #7 of 32, TBL's defense #4). Holding it back: Dennis Hildeby in goal -0.08 (a Mid goalie, grade 52, -2.4%). The model projects 6.51 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 49% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 9 goals (TBL 4, UTA 5), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

SJS#20 OFF / #31 DEF

2.79●

10O 6.5

6.40

47%

6.5 → 6.5

7:00 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over

A. Nedeljkovic ✓ OK 24

1.89

0.62

-7.2%

0.50

–

+1.1%

-1.4%

BOS#18 OFF / #14 DEF

3.61●

J. Swayman ✓ Strong 89

2.45

0.72

–

0.50

–

-1.7%

+0.3%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
SJS	1.84#27 of 32	2.09#20 of 32	1.89goals	0.61#11 of 32	0.57#15 of 32	0.62goals
BOS	2.24#6 of 32	2.22#29 of 32	2.45goals	0.57#18 of 32	0.70#31 of 32	0.72goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Pre-game	Player	If out	Pre-game
SJS	Macklin Celebrini C	-5.0%	Plays	Macklin Celebrini C	+0.8%	Plays
	Will Smith C	-2.4%	Plays	Will Smith C	+0.7%	Plays
	Tyler Toffoli C	-2.0%	Plays	Tyler Toffoli C	+0.6%	Plays
	Alexander Wennberg C	-0.9%	OUT	Dmitry Orlov D	+0.6%	Plays
	Kiefer Sherwood L	-0.8%	Plays	Mason Marchment L	+0.4%	Plays
BOS	David Pastrnak R	-4.5%	Plays	David Pastrnak R	+0.9%	Plays
	Morgan Geekie C	-3.2%	Plays	Morgan Geekie C	+0.7%	Plays
	Pavel Zacha C	-2.4%	Plays	Mason Lohrei D	+0.6%	Plays
	Elias Lindholm C	-1.6%	Plays	Casey Mittelstadt C	+0.5%	Plays
	Charlie McAvoy D	-1.1%	Plays	JJ Peterka R	+0.3%	Plays

Also out: SJS: Igor Chernyshov -0.8% attack, +0.4% defense

How the projection moved on game day (6.40 → 6.40)

12:01 AM 6.40 first run
3:25 AM 6.49 +0.09SJS goalie: Alex Nedeljkovic → Yaroslav Askarov +0.09; Line 6.5 o-109 → 6.5 o-110
4:36 AM 6.49 no change
11:18 AM 6.49 BOS goalie Jeremy Swayman: Likely → Confirmed; BOS lineup: Jack Studley Oct 24 10:32 AM; Line 6.5 o-110 → 6.5 o-108
12:18 PM 6.40 -0.09SJS goalie: Yaroslav Askarov → Alex Nedeljkovic -0.09; Injuries / lineup: Adam Gaudette (SJS) back in -0.00; SJS lineup: Sheng Peng Oct 24 11:38 AM
12:45 PM 6.40 Line 6.5 o-108 → 6.5 o-109
1:17 PM 6.40 no change
2:14 PM 6.40 no change
2:17 PM 6.40 no change
3:17 PM 6.40 no change
4:18 PM 6.40 Line 6.5 o-109 → 6.5 o-107
4:59 PM 6.40 Line 6.5 o-107 → 6.5 o-108
5:18 PM 6.40 no change
6:18 PM 6.40 Line 6.5 o-108 → 6.5 o-109
6:46 PM 6.40 SJS lineup: Curtis Pashelka Oct 24 6:37 PM; BOS lineup: Scott McLaughlin Oct 24 6:37 PM; Line 6.5 o-109 → 6.5 o-110

AVOID: SJS projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (SJS 2.79). The 6.40 total looks high, but most of it comes from BOS; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, SJS is bad (1.89) and BOS is great (2.45); on the power play, SJS is good (0.62) and BOS is great (0.72). SJS faces Jeremy Swayman, a Strong goalie, grade 89 (-7.2%); BOS faces Alex Nedeljkovic, an OK goalie, grade 24 (-0.0%). SJS 2.79: 0.33 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: power play +0.04 (its power play ranks #11, BOS's penalty kill and penalty habits #15); team speed +0.03 (it skates faster than BOS, +1.1%). Holding it back: Jeremy Swayman in goal -0.22 (a Strong goalie, grade 89, -7.2%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.15 (its attack ranks #27 of 32, BOS's defense #20); injuries -0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.4%). BOS 3.61: 0.50 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.41 (its attack ranks #6 of 32, SJS's defense #29); power play +0.14 (its power play ranks #18, SJS's penalty kill and penalty habits #31); injuries +0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.3%). Holding it back: team speed -0.06 (it skates slower than SJS, -1.7%). The model projects 6.40 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 47% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 10 goals (SJS 4, BOS 6), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

NSH#16 OFF / #21 DEF

3.12●

5U 6.5

6.35

49%

6.5 → 6.5

7:00 PM ET
1U ⚠ lineup
L
paper L -1.00u

J. Saros ✓ OK 37

1.88

0.59

+3.9%

0.49

–

-1.5%

+2.7%

PIT#10 OFF / #23 DEF

3.23●

A. Silovs ✓ Trash 3

2.41

0.57

-1.2%

0.49

–

+0.9%

-6.8%

⚠ Lineup change since 12:01 AM: Evgeni Malkin now OUT (was Day-to-day, seen 12:18 PM) · PIT −2.7% · projection 6.42 → 6.35

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NSH	1.81#29 of 32	2.12#21 of 32	1.88goals	0.60#12 of 32	0.54#8 of 32	0.59goals
PIT	2.29#5 of 32	2.14#23 of 32	2.41goals	0.57#16 of 32	0.55#11 of 32	0.57goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Pre-game	Player	If out	Pre-game
NSH	Filip Forsberg L	-4.2%	Plays	Filip Forsberg L	+0.6%	Plays
	Steven Stamkos C	-3.8%	Plays	Steven Stamkos C	+0.6%	Plays
	Ryan O'Reilly C	-3.0%	Plays	Adam Wilsby D	+0.5%	Plays
	Roman Josi D	-1.5%	Plays	Roman Josi D	+0.5%	Plays
	Jonathan Marchessault R	-1.2%	Plays	Ross Colton C	+0.4%	Plays
PIT	Sidney Crosby C	-3.8%	Plays	Tommy Novak C	+1.0%	Plays
	Rickard Rakell R	-2.9%	Plays	Ben Kindel C	+0.8%	OUT · IR
	⚠ Evgeni Malkin C	-2.7%	OUTwas Day-to-day	Samuel Girard D	+0.8%	OUT · IR
	Bryan Rust R	-2.6%	OUT · IR	Kaedan Korczak D	+0.7%	Plays
	Erik Karlsson D	-1.8%	Plays	Egor Chinakhov R	+0.5%	OUT

How the projection moved on game day (6.42 → 6.35)

12:01 AM 6.42 first run
3:25 AM 6.41 -0.01NSH goalie: Justus Annunen → Juuse Saros -0.01; Line 6.5 o-108 → 6.5 o-105
4:36 AM 6.41 no change
11:18 AM 6.42 +0.01Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated +0.02; PIT goalie Arturs Silovs: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-105 → 6.5 o-107
12:18 PM 6.35 -0.07Injuries / lineup: Evgeni Malkin (PIT) out -0.07; NSH goalie Juuse Saros: Likely → Confirmed
12:45 PM 6.35 no change
1:17 PM 6.35 no change
2:14 PM 6.35 no change
2:17 PM 6.35 no change
3:17 PM 6.35 Line 6.5 o-107 → 6.5 o-105
4:18 PM 6.35 no change
4:59 PM 6.35 no change
5:18 PM 6.35 no change
6:18 PM 6.35 Line 6.5 o-105 → 6.5 o-107
6:46 PM 6.35 PIT lineup: Pittsburgh Penguins Oct 24 6:34 PM; Line 6.5 o-107 → 6.5 o-109

1U: both teams project as high-scoring (NSH 3.12, PIT 3.23; cutoff 3.10) and the line is 6.5; PIT is great at 5-on-5 and can carry the over, but NSH is only bad, so it's an over but not a slam. At 5-on-5, NSH is bad (1.88) and PIT is great (2.41); on the power play, NSH is good (0.59) and PIT is mid (0.57). NSH faces Arturs Silovs, a Trash goalie, grade 3 (+3.9%); PIT faces Juuse Saros, an OK goalie, grade 37 (-1.2%). Other factors: injuries help NSH 2.7%; injuries cost PIT 6.8%. NSH 3.12: 0.00 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: Arturs Silovs in goal +0.12 (a Trash goalie, grade 3, +3.9%); injuries +0.08 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.7%); power play +0.01 (its power play ranks #12, PIT's penalty kill and penalty habits #8). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.16 (its attack ranks #29 of 32, PIT's defense #21); team speed -0.05 (it skates slower than PIT, -1.5%). PIT 3.23: 0.11 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.37 (its attack ranks #5 of 32, NSH's defense #23); team speed +0.03 (it skates faster than NSH, +0.9%). Holding it back: injuries -0.23 (missing players on both teams, net, -6.8%); Juuse Saros in goal -0.04 (an OK goalie, grade 37, -1.2%). The model projects 6.35 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 49% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over 58% of the time at the opening line and 59% at the closing line in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (NSH 2, PIT 3), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was wrong.

MIN#4 OFF / #8 DEF

3.31●

6U 6.5

6.20

46%

6.5 → 6.5

10:00 PM ET
AVOID ⚠ lineup was 1U
✓ under

J. Wallstedt ✓ Good 61

2.19

0.61

-0.6%

0.49

–

+0.4%

SEA#28 OFF / #26 DEF

2.90●

J. Daccord ✓ OK 30

1.96

0.56

-3.0%

0.50

–

-0.7%

-0.5%

⚠ Lineup change since 12:01 AM: Jared McCann now OUT (was Plays, seen 2:14 PM) · SEA −2.0% · projection 6.51 → 6.20

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
MIN	2.04#15 of 32	2.19#26 of 32	2.19goals	0.63#8 of 32	0.54#6 of 32	0.61goals
SEA	2.08#12 of 32	1.92#9 of 32	1.96goals	0.53#24 of 32	0.59#20 of 32	0.56goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Pre-game	Player	If out	Pre-game
MIN	Kirill Kaprizov L	-6.0%	Plays	Quinn Hughes D	+2.1%	Plays
	Matt Boldy L	-4.8%	Plays	Kirill Kaprizov L	+1.7%	Plays
	Joel Eriksson Ek C	-2.8%	Plays	Matt Boldy L	+1.1%	Plays
	Quinn Hughes D	-2.7%	Plays	Bobby Brink R	+1.1%	Plays
	Ryan Hartman R	-0.8%	Plays	Jared Spurgeon D	+0.9%	Plays
SEA	Jordan Eberle R	-2.0%	Plays	Jordan Eberle R	+0.8%	Plays
	⚠ Jared McCann L	-2.0%	OUT · IRwas Plays	Matty Beniers C	+0.8%	Plays
	Bobby McMann C	-1.5%	Plays	Shane Wright C	+0.8%	Plays
	Matty Beniers C	-1.1%	Plays	Ryker Evans D	+0.7%	Plays
	Kaapo Kakko R	-0.9%	Plays	Berkly Catton C	+0.7%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (6.51 → 6.20)

12:01 AM 6.51 first run
3:25 AM 6.33 -0.19MIN goalie: Calvin Pickard → Jesper Wallstedt -0.19; Max Shabanov (MIN) day-to-day; Line 6.5 o+105 → 6.5 o+107
4:36 AM 6.33 Line 6.5 o+107 → 6.5 o+108
11:18 AM 6.32 Line 6.5 o+108 → 6.5 o+105
12:18 PM 6.32 no change
12:45 PM 6.32 no change
1:17 PM 6.32 no change
2:14 PM 6.28 -0.04Injuries / lineup: Jared McCann (SEA) out -0.04; SEA lineup: Mike Benton Oct 24 1:36 PM
2:17 PM 6.28 no change
3:17 PM 6.20 -0.08SEA goalie: Philipp Grubauer → Joey Daccord -0.08; MIN goalie Jesper Wallstedt: Likely → Confirmed
4:18 PM 6.20 no change
4:59 PM 6.20 no change
5:18 PM 6.20 no change
6:18 PM 6.20 no change
6:46 PM 6.20 no change
7:18 PM 6.20 no change
7:22 PM 6.20 no change
8:18 PM 6.20 no change
8:46 PM 6.20 Line 6.5 o+105 → 6.5 o+107
9:18 PM 6.20 no change
9:46 PM 6.20 Injuries / lineup: Maxim Shabanov (MIN) back in +0.00; Maxim Shabanov (MIN) day-to-day; Max Shabanov (MIN) off day-to-day; MIN lineup: Joe Smith Oct 24 9:43 PM; SEA lineup: Sound of Hockey Oct 24 9:41 PM; Line 6.5 o+107 → 6.5 o+106

AVOID: SEA projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (SEA 2.90). The 6.20 total looks high, but most of it comes from MIN; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, MIN is great (2.19) and SEA is mid (1.96); on the power play, MIN is good (0.61) and SEA is mid (0.56). MIN faces Joey Daccord, an OK goalie, grade 30 (-0.6%); SEA faces Jesper Wallstedt, a Good goalie, grade 61 (-3.0%). MIN 3.31: 0.19 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.15 (its attack ranks #15 of 32, SEA's defense #26); power play +0.03 (its power play ranks #8, SEA's penalty kill and penalty habits #6); injuries +0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.4%); team speed +0.01 (it skates faster than SEA, +0.4%). Holding it back: Joey Daccord in goal -0.02 (an OK goalie, grade 30, -0.6%). SEA 2.90: 0.22 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Holding it back: Jesper Wallstedt in goal -0.09 (a Good goalie, grade 61, -3.0%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.08 (its attack ranks #12 of 32, MIN's defense #9); team speed -0.02 (it skates slower than MIN, -0.7%); power play -0.02 (its power play ranks #24, MIN's penalty kill and penalty habits #20); injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.5%). The model projects 6.20 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 46% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 6 goals (MIN 5, SEA 1), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

CAR#1 OFF / #2 DEF

3.37●

4U 6.5

6.20

46%

6.5 → 6.5

7:00 PM ET
AVOID
✓ under

P. Kochetkov ✓ Mid 46

2.41

0.63

-3.5%

0.50

–

+0.9%

-2.3%

STL#27 OFF / #13 DEF

2.83●

J. Hofer ✓ Good 65

1.85

0.45

-1.9%

0.50

–

-1.0%

+4.2%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CAR	2.42#2 of 32	2.03#16 of 32	2.41goals	0.69#4 of 32	0.51#5 of 32	0.63goals
STL	2.01#17 of 32	1.87#3 of 32	1.85goals	0.49#28 of 32	0.51#4 of 32	0.45goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Pre-game	Player	If out	Pre-game
CAR	Sebastian Aho C	-4.6%	Plays	Jackson Blake R	+1.8%	Plays
	Andrei Svechnikov R	-4.1%	Plays	Shayne Gostisbehere D	+1.6%	Plays
	Nikolaj Ehlers L	-3.4%	Plays	Nikolaj Ehlers L	+1.5%	Plays
	Jackson Blake R	-2.7%	Plays	Sean Walker D	+1.5%	Plays
	Logan Stankoven C	-2.4%	Plays	Logan Stankoven C	+1.4%	Plays
STL	Robert Thomas C	-2.8%	Plays	Dylan Holloway L	+0.9%	Plays
	Dylan Holloway L	-2.1%	Plays	Dalibor Dvorsky R	+0.7%	Plays
	Jimmy Snuggerud R	-2.1%	Plays	Jake Neighbours L	+0.7%	Plays
	Pavel Buchnevich L	-1.4%	Plays	Cam Fowler D	+0.7%	Plays
	Jake Neighbours L	-1.1%	Plays	Jimmy Snuggerud R	+0.6%	Plays

Also out: CAR: Taylor Hall -1.3% attack, +0.7% defense; Mark Jankowski -0.7% attack, +0.8% defense; Jordan Staal -0.6% attack, +0.3% defense

How the projection moved on game day (6.20 → 6.20)

12:01 AM 6.20 first run
3:25 AM 6.20 no change
4:36 AM 6.20 Line 6.5 o+104 → 6.5 o+105
11:18 AM 6.20 no change
12:18 PM 6.20 STL goalie Joel Hofer: Likely → Confirmed; STL lineup: Elise Butler Oct 24 12:17 PM
12:45 PM 6.20 Line 6.5 o+105 → 6.5 o+107
1:17 PM 6.20 no change
2:14 PM 6.20 Line 6.5 o+107 → 6.5 o+109
2:17 PM 6.20 no change
3:17 PM 6.20 no change
4:18 PM 6.20 no change
4:59 PM 6.20 no change
5:18 PM 6.20 no change
6:18 PM 6.20 no change
6:46 PM 6.20 CAR goalie Pyotr Kochetkov: Likely → Confirmed; CAR lineup: Walt Ruff Oct 24 6:38 PM; STL lineup: Matthew DeFranks Oct 24 6:39 PM

AVOID: STL projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (STL 2.83). The 6.20 total looks high, but most of it comes from CAR; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, CAR is great (2.41) and STL is bad (1.85); on the power play, CAR is good (0.63) and STL is trash (0.45). CAR faces Joel Hofer, a Good goalie, grade 65 (-3.5%); STL faces Pyotr Kochetkov, a Mid goalie, grade 46 (-1.9%). Other factors: injuries cost CAR 2.3%; injuries help STL 4.2%. CAR 3.37: 0.25 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.37 (its attack ranks #2 of 32, STL's defense #16); power play +0.05 (its power play ranks #4, STL's penalty kill and penalty habits #5); team speed +0.03 (it skates faster than STL, +0.9%). Holding it back: Joel Hofer in goal -0.12 (a Good goalie, grade 65, -3.5%); injuries -0.08 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.3%). STL 2.83: 0.29 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: injuries +0.12 (missing players on both teams, net, +4.2%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.19 (its attack ranks #17 of 32, CAR's defense #3); power play -0.13 (its power play ranks #28, CAR's penalty kill and penalty habits #4); Pyotr Kochetkov in goal -0.05 (a Mid goalie, grade 46, -1.9%); team speed -0.03 (it skates slower than CAR, -1.0%). The model projects 6.20 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 46% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 4 goals (CAR 4, STL 0), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

VGK#8 OFF / #7 DEF

3.31●

3U 6.5

6.17

46%

6.5 → 6.5

7:00 PM ET
AVOID
✓ under

C. Hart ✓ Trash 12

2.19

0.77

+0.4%

0.49

–

-1.1%

-3.3%

CBJ#22 OFF / #25 DEF

2.86●

C. Talbot ✓ OK 21

1.88

0.32

+1.6%

0.49

–

+1.2%

+3.0%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
VGK	2.19#8 of 32	2.04#18 of 32	2.19goals	0.67#6 of 32	0.64#26 of 32	0.77goals
CBJ	2.03#16 of 32	1.89#5 of 32	1.88goals	0.46#30 of 32	0.39#1 of 32	0.32goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Pre-game	Player	If out	Pre-game
VGK	Jack Eichel C	-4.6%	Plays	Tomas Hertl C	+1.6%	Plays
	Mark Stone R	-4.1%	Plays	Shea Theodore D	+1.4%	Plays
	Mitch Marner R	-3.6%	OUT	Mark Stone R	+1.2%	Plays
	Tomas Hertl C	-3.5%	Plays	Ivan Barbashev L	+1.2%	Plays
	Ivan Barbashev L	-1.9%	Plays	Noah Hanifin D	+1.0%	Plays
CBJ	Zach Werenski D	-2.5%	Plays	Kent Johnson C	+1.1%	Plays
	Adam Fantilli C	-2.3%	Plays	Damon Severson D	+1.0%	Plays
	Charlie Coyle C	-1.4%	Plays	Adam Fantilli C	+0.9%	Plays
	Sean Monahan C	-1.4%	Plays	Zach Werenski D	+0.6%	Plays
	Kent Johnson C	-1.2%	Plays	Denton Mateychuk D	+0.5%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (5.91 → 6.17)

12:01 AM 5.91 first run
3:25 AM 5.95 +0.04VGK goalie: Adin Hill → Carter Hart +0.02; Injuries / lineup: Isac Lundestrom (CBJ) out +0.02; Line 6.5 o+107 → 6.5 o+108
4:36 AM 5.95 no change
11:18 AM 6.17 +0.22CBJ goalie: Jet Greaves → Cam Talbot +0.19; Injuries / lineup: Danton Heinen (CBJ) out, Dmitri Voronkov (CBJ) back in +0.03; CBJ lineup: Mark Scheig Oct 24 10:39 AM; Line 6.5 o+108 → 6.5 o+106
12:18 PM 6.17 VGK goalie Carter Hart: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o+106 → 6.5 o+105
12:45 PM 6.17 Line 6.5 o+105 → 6.5 o+103
1:17 PM 6.17 no change
2:14 PM 6.17 no change
2:17 PM 6.17 no change
3:17 PM 6.17 Line 6.5 o+103 → 6.5 o+105
4:18 PM 6.17 Line 6.5 o+105 → 6.5 o+108
4:59 PM 6.17 no change
5:18 PM 6.17 no change
6:18 PM 6.17 Line 6.5 o+108 → 6.5 o+107
6:46 PM 6.17 VGK lineup: Mark Scheig Oct 24 6:41 PM; CBJ lineup: Aaron Portzline Oct 24 6:35 PM; Line 6.5 o+107 → 6.5 o+108

AVOID: CBJ projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (CBJ 2.86). The 6.17 total looks high, but most of it comes from VGK; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, VGK is great (2.19) and CBJ is bad (1.88); on the power play, VGK is great (0.77) and CBJ is trash (0.32). VGK faces Cam Talbot, an OK goalie, grade 21 (+0.4%); CBJ faces Carter Hart, a Trash goalie, grade 12 (+1.6%). Other factors: injuries cost VGK 3.3%; injuries help CBJ 3.0%. VGK 3.31: 0.20 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: power play +0.19 (its power play ranks #6, CBJ's penalty kill and penalty habits #26); 5-on-5 matchup +0.15 (its attack ranks #8 of 32, CBJ's defense #18); Cam Talbot in goal +0.01 (an OK goalie, grade 21, +0.4%). Holding it back: injuries -0.11 (missing players on both teams, net, -3.3%); team speed -0.04 (it skates slower than CBJ, -1.1%). CBJ 2.86: 0.26 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: injuries +0.08 (missing players on both teams, net, +3.0%); Carter Hart in goal +0.04 (a Trash goalie, grade 12, +1.6%); team speed +0.03 (it skates faster than VGK, +1.2%). Holding it back: power play -0.26 (its power play ranks #30, VGK's penalty kill and penalty habits #1); 5-on-5 matchup -0.16 (its attack ranks #16 of 32, VGK's defense #5). The model projects 6.17 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 46% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 3 goals (VGK 1, CBJ 2), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

NYR#21 OFF / #10 DEF

2.92●

11O 6.5

6.04

45%

6.5 → 6.5

7:00 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over

D. Garand ✓ Mid 49

1.75

0.60

+4.3%

0.49

–

-2.1%

+0.9%

OTT#15 OFF / #3 DEF

3.11●

J. Johansson ✓ Trash 2

2.01

0.63

-2.1%

0.49

–

+2.1%

-0.5%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NYR	1.97#21 of 32	1.81#1 of 32	1.75goals	0.60#13 of 32	0.55#9 of 32	0.60goals
OTT	2.04#14 of 32	2.00#14 of 32	2.01goals	0.65#7 of 32	0.54#6 of 32	0.63goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Pre-game	Player	If out	Pre-game
NYR	Mika Zibanejad C	-3.2%	Plays	Alexis Lafrenière L	+0.8%	Plays
	Alexis Lafrenière L	-2.5%	Plays	Pavel Dorofeyev R	+0.8%	Plays
	J.T. Miller C	-2.3%	Plays	Adam Fox D	+0.8%	Plays
	Adam Fox D	-2.0%	Plays	Gabe Perreault R	+0.5%	Plays
	Pavel Dorofeyev R	-1.5%	Plays	Oliver Bjorkstrand R	+0.4%	Plays
OTT	Tim Stützle C	-4.2%	Plays	Jordan Spence D	+2.2%	Plays
	Drake Batherson R	-3.4%	Plays	Drake Batherson R	+1.6%	Plays
	Dylan Cozens C	-2.3%	Plays	Dylan Cozens C	+1.4%	Plays
	Shane Pinto C	-1.4%	Plays	Tim Stützle C	+1.3%	Plays
	Claude Giroux R	-1.4%	Plays	Tyler Kleven D	+1.1%	Plays

Also out: OTT: Thomas Chabot -0.3% attack, +0.8% defense

How the projection moved on game day (6.12 → 6.04)

12:01 AM 6.12 first run
3:25 AM 6.12 no change
4:36 AM 6.12 no change
11:18 AM 6.04 -0.09OTT goalie: Samuel Ersson → Jonas Johansson -0.09; OTT lineup: Bruce Garrioch Oct 24 10:42 AM; Line 6 o-122 → 6 o-115
12:18 PM 6.04 NYR goalie Dylan Garand: Likely → Confirmed
12:45 PM 6.04 no change
1:17 PM 6.04 no change
2:14 PM 6.04 Line 6 o-115 → 6.5 o-102
2:17 PM 6.04 no change
3:17 PM 6.04 no change
4:18 PM 6.04 Line 6.5 o-102 → 6.5 o+111
4:59 PM 6.04 no change
5:18 PM 6.04 no change
6:18 PM 6.04 no change
6:46 PM 6.04 Eeli Tolvanen (NYR) off day-to-day

AVOID: NYR projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (NYR 2.92). The 6.04 total looks high, but most of it comes from OTT; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, NYR is trash (1.75) and OTT is mid (2.01); on the power play, NYR is good (0.60) and OTT is good (0.63). NYR faces Jonas Johansson, a Trash goalie, grade 2 (+4.3%); OTT faces Dylan Garand, a Mid goalie, grade 49 (-2.1%). Other factors: NYR's team speed costs 2.1%; OTT's team speed adds 2.1%. NYR 2.92: 0.19 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: Jonas Johansson in goal +0.12 (a Trash goalie, grade 2, +4.3%); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.9%); power play +0.02 (its power play ranks #13, OTT's penalty kill and penalty habits #9). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.29 (its attack ranks #21 of 32, OTT's defense #1); team speed -0.06 (it skates slower than OTT, -2.1%). OTT 3.11: 0.00 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: team speed +0.06 (it skates faster than NYR, +2.1%); power play +0.05 (its power play ranks #7, NYR's penalty kill and penalty habits #6). Holding it back: Dylan Garand in goal -0.07 (a Mid goalie, grade 49, -2.1%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.03 (its attack ranks #14 of 32, NYR's defense #14); injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.5%). The model projects 6.04 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 5.5 to 6.5, toward the over. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 11 goals (NYR 4, OTT 7), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

ANA#14 OFF / #30 DEF

3.22●

9O 5.5

6.00

44%

5.5 → 5.5

1:00 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over

L. Dostal ✓ OK 37

2.12

0.60

-3.0%

0.49

–

+1.5%

+1.7%

PHI#31 OFF / #18 DEF

2.78●

J. Woll ✓ Good 61

1.81

0.59

-1.2%

0.50

–

-1.3%

-1.7%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
ANA	2.00#18 of 32	2.16#24 of 32	2.12goals	0.55#19 of 32	0.60#21 of 32	0.60goals
PHI	1.63#32 of 32	2.26#30 of 32	1.81goals	0.51#26 of 32	0.63#25 of 32	0.59goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Pre-game	Player	If out	Pre-game
ANA	Leo Carlsson C	-3.0%	Plays	Leo Carlsson C	+0.6%	Plays
	Cutter Gauthier L	-3.0%	Plays	Beckett Sennecke R	+0.5%	Plays
	Beckett Sennecke R	-3.0%	Plays	Cutter Gauthier L	+0.4%	Plays
	Mikael Granlund C	-1.9%	Plays	Ian Moore D	+0.4%	OUT · IR
	Troy Terry R	-1.3%	OUT · IR	A.J. Greer L	+0.2%	Plays
PHI	Trevor Zegras C	-2.2%	Plays	Jamie Drysdale D	+1.1%	Plays
	Matvei Michkov R	-2.1%	Plays	Owen Tippett R	+1.0%	OUT · IR
	Travis Konecny R	-1.5%	OUT · IR	Noah Cates L	+1.0%	Plays
	Owen Tippett R	-1.4%	OUT · IR	Matvei Michkov R	+0.9%	Plays
	Tyson Foerster R	-0.7%	Plays	Trevor Zegras C	+0.9%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (6.02 → 6.00)

12:01 AM 6.02 first run
3:25 AM 6.02 Line 5.5 o-135 → 5.5 o-137
4:36 AM 6.02 no change
11:18 AM 6.02 PHI goalie Joseph Woll: Likely → Confirmed; Line 5.5 o-137 → 5.5 o-125
12:18 PM 6.02 no change
12:45 PM 6.00 -0.02Injuries / lineup: Rasmus Ristolainen (PHI) back in -0.02; ANA goalie Lukas Dostal: Likely → Confirmed; PHI lineup: Charlie O'Connor Oct 24 12:39 PM

AVOID: PHI projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (PHI 2.78); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, ANA is good (2.12) and PHI is trash (1.81); on the power play, ANA is good (0.60) and PHI is mid (0.59). ANA faces Joseph Woll, a Good goalie, grade 61 (-3.0%); PHI faces Lukas Dostal, an OK goalie, grade 37 (-1.2%). Other factors: injuries help ANA 1.7%; injuries cost PHI 1.7%. ANA 3.22: 0.10 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.08 (its attack ranks #18 of 32, PHI's defense #24); injuries +0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.7%); team speed +0.05 (it skates faster than PHI, +1.5%); power play +0.02 (its power play ranks #19, PHI's penalty kill and penalty habits #21). Holding it back: Joseph Woll in goal -0.10 (a Good goalie, grade 61, -3.0%). PHI 2.78: 0.34 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.23 (its attack ranks #32 of 32, ANA's defense #30); injuries -0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.7%); team speed -0.04 (it skates slower than ANA, -1.3%); Lukas Dostal in goal -0.03 (an OK goalie, grade 37, -1.2%). The model projects 6.00 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 44% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 6.5 to 5.5, toward the under. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 9 goals (ANA 5, PHI 4), so it went over 5.5 and the call was wrong.

DET#13 OFF / #11 DEF

3.29●

5U 6

5.95

42%

6 → 5.5 ↓

10:00 PM ET
AVOID
✓ under

J. Gibson ✓ OK 34

2.06

0.73

-3.4%

0.49

–

+2.6%

+1.1%

CGY#29 OFF / #28 DEF

2.66●

D. Cooley ✓ Good 65

1.76

0.51

-0.9%

0.50

–

-3.2%

+0.3%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
DET	1.92#23 of 32	2.18#25 of 32	2.06goals	0.67#5 of 32	0.60#22 of 32	0.73goals
CGY	1.81#28 of 32	1.98#13 of 32	1.76goals	0.45#31 of 32	0.62#24 of 32	0.51goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Pre-game	Player	If out	Pre-game
DET	Alex DeBrincat R	-5.4%	Plays	Moritz Seider D	+1.4%	Plays
	Lucas Raymond L	-3.9%	Plays	Lucas Raymond L	+1.3%	Plays
	Dylan Larkin C	-3.4%	Plays	Alex DeBrincat R	+1.3%	Plays
	Viktor Arvidsson L	-1.1%	Plays	Emmitt Finnie C	+0.8%	Plays
	Moritz Seider D	-1.1%	Plays	Dylan Larkin C	+0.6%	Plays
CGY	Matt Coronato R	-1.5%	Plays	Morgan Frost C	+0.8%	Plays
	Morgan Frost C	-1.4%	Plays	Joel Hanley D	+0.4%	OUT · scratch
	Jonathan Huberdeau L	-0.6%	OUT · IR	Matt Coronato R	+0.4%	Plays
	Ryan Strome C	-0.4%	Plays	Adam Klapka R	+0.4%	Plays
	Joel Farabee L	-0.4%	Plays	Ryan Strome C	+0.3%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (5.96 → 5.95)

12:01 AM 5.96 first run
3:25 AM 5.96 Line 6 o-123 → 6 o-125
4:36 AM 5.96 no change
11:18 AM 5.96 Line 6 o-125 → 6 o-124
12:18 PM 5.96 Line 6 o-124 → 6 o-122
12:45 PM 5.96 CGY goalie Devin Cooley: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6 o-122 → 6 o-125
1:17 PM 5.96 no change
2:14 PM 5.96 DET goalie John Gibson: Likely → Confirmed
2:17 PM 5.95 -0.01Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated -0.01
3:17 PM 5.95 CGY lineup: Pat Steinberg Oct 24 2:41 PM
4:18 PM 5.95 no change
4:59 PM 5.95 no change
5:18 PM 5.95 no change
6:18 PM 5.95 no change
6:46 PM 5.95 no change
7:18 PM 5.95 Line 6 o-125 → 6 o-122
7:22 PM 5.95 no change
8:18 PM 5.95 no change
8:46 PM 5.95 no change
9:18 PM 5.95 no change
9:46 PM 5.95 CGY lineup: Calgary Flames Oct 24 9:45 PM

AVOID: CGY projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (CGY 2.66). At 5-on-5, DET is good (2.06) and CGY is trash (1.76); on the power play, DET is great (0.73) and CGY is bad (0.51). DET faces Devin Cooley, a Good goalie, grade 65 (-3.4%); CGY faces John Gibson, an OK goalie, grade 34 (-0.9%). Other factors: DET's team speed adds 2.6%; CGY's team speed costs 3.2%. DET 3.29: 0.17 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: power play +0.15 (its power play ranks #5, CGY's penalty kill and penalty habits #22); team speed +0.08 (it skates faster than CGY, +2.6%); injuries +0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.1%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.02 (its attack ranks #23 of 32, CGY's defense #25). Holding it back: Devin Cooley in goal -0.11 (a Good goalie, grade 65, -3.4%). CGY 2.66: 0.45 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.28 (its attack ranks #28 of 32, DET's defense #13); team speed -0.09 (it skates slower than DET, -3.2%); power play -0.07 (its power play ranks #31, DET's penalty kill and penalty habits #24); John Gibson in goal -0.03 (an OK goalie, grade 34, -0.9%). The model projects 5.95 total goals against a 6 line, with a 42% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 6.5 to 6, toward the under. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (DET 1, CGY 4), so it stayed under 6 and the call was right.

LAK#26 OFF / #16 DEF

2.54●

4U 5.5

5.59

39%

5.5 → 5.5

3:30 PM ET
AVOID
✓ under

A. Forsberg ✓ Mid 44

1.71

0.42

-2.0%

0.49

–

+0.5%

-1.7%

NJD#7 OFF / #9 DEF

3.05●

J. Allen ✓ Mid 47

1.95

0.63

-1.7%

0.50

–

-0.7%

+1.8%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
LAK	1.84#26 of 32	1.90#7 of 32	1.71goals	0.47#29 of 32	0.49#2 of 32	0.42goals
NJD	2.07#13 of 32	1.92#9 of 32	1.95goals	0.59#14 of 32	0.59#18 of 32	0.63goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Pre-game	Player	If out	Pre-game
LAK	Artemi Panarin L	-4.1%	Plays	Brandt Clarke D	+1.7%	Plays
	Adrian Kempe R	-3.5%	Plays	Artemi Panarin L	+1.1%	Plays
	Quinton Byfield R	-1.3%	OUT	Adrian Kempe R	+1.1%	Plays
	Kevin Fiala L	-1.1%	OUT · IR	Alex Laferriere R	+0.9%	Plays
	Alex Laferriere R	-1.0%	Plays	Drew Doughty D	+0.8%	Plays
NJD	Jack Hughes C	-4.1%	Plays	Jack Hughes C	+1.2%	Plays
	Nico Hischier C	-3.5%	Plays	Luke Hughes D	+1.1%	Plays
	Jesper Bratt L	-3.4%	Plays	Dougie Hamilton D	+1.0%	Plays
	Timo Meier R	-1.8%	Plays	Jesper Bratt L	+0.9%	Plays
	Dougie Hamilton D	-1.4%	Plays	Arseny Gritsyuk R	+0.9%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (5.59 → 5.59)

12:01 AM 5.59 first run
3:25 AM 5.57 -0.01LAK goalie: Anton Forsberg → Darcy Kuemper -0.01
4:36 AM 5.57 no change
11:18 AM 5.57 Line 5.5 o-133 → 5.5 o-131
12:18 PM 5.57 Line 5.5 o-131 → 5.5 o-120
12:45 PM 5.57 no change
1:17 PM 5.57 no change
2:14 PM 5.58 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Declan Chisholm (NJD) out +0.01; NJD goalie Jake Allen: Likely → Confirmed
2:17 PM 5.58 no change
3:17 PM 5.59 +0.01LAK goalie: Darcy Kuemper → Anton Forsberg +0.01; LAK lineup: Zach Dooley Oct 24 3:11 PM; NJD lineup: New Jersey Devils Oct 24 3:16 PM; Line 5.5 o-120 → 5.5 o-121

AVOID: LAK and NJD project under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (LAK 2.54, NJD 3.05); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, LAK is trash (1.71) and NJD is mid (1.95); on the power play, LAK is trash (0.42) and NJD is good (0.63). LAK faces Jake Allen, a Mid goalie, grade 47 (-2.0%); NJD faces Anton Forsberg, a Mid goalie, grade 44 (-1.7%). Other factors: injuries cost LAK 1.7%; injuries help NJD 1.8%. LAK 2.54: 0.58 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: team speed +0.01 (it skates faster than NJD, +0.5%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.33 (its attack ranks #26 of 32, NJD's defense #7); power play -0.16 (its power play ranks #29, NJD's penalty kill and penalty habits #2); Jake Allen in goal -0.05 (a Mid goalie, grade 47, -2.0%); injuries -0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.7%). NJD 3.05: 0.06 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: injuries +0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.8%); power play +0.05 (its power play ranks #14, LAK's penalty kill and penalty habits #18). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.09 (its attack ranks #13 of 32, LAK's defense #9); Anton Forsberg in goal -0.05 (a Mid goalie, grade 44, -1.7%); team speed -0.02 (it skates slower than LAK, -0.7%). The model projects 5.59 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 39% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 4 goals (LAK 1, NJD 3), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.

7:00 PM ET🔨 SLAM

O 6.5 W
paper W +0.78u

BUF#17 OFF / #19 DEF33.54●

U. Luukkonen ✓ OK 27

WSH#9 OFF / #24 DEF43.33●

C. Lindgren ✓ OK 23

7 goals · proj 6.87 · P(7+) 55%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
BUF	2.28	0.65	+0.1%	0.49	–	+1.6%	+1.5%
WSH	2.28	0.57	-0.3%	0.49	–	-0.9%	+0.8%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
BUF	2.11#11 of 32	2.20#27 of 32	2.28goals
WSH	2.30#4 of 32	2.02#15 of 32	2.28goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
BUF	0.53#23 of 32	0.68#30 of 32	0.65goals
WSH	0.52#25 of 32	0.60#23 of 32	0.57goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
BUF
Tage Thompson C	-4.7%	Plays
Jack Quinn R	-2.2%	Plays
Rasmus Dahlin D	-2.2%	Plays
Josh Doan R	-1.8%	Plays
Jason Zucker L	-1.5%	Plays
WSH
Alex Ovechkin L	-3.5%	Plays
Tom Wilson R	-3.0%	Plays
Dylan Strome C	-2.8%	Plays
Jakob Chychrun D	-2.5%	Plays
Ryan Leonard R	-1.7%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
BUF
Noah Ostlund C	+1.3%	Plays
Rasmus Dahlin D	+1.2%	Plays
Zach Benson L	+1.1%	Plays
Josh Doan R	+1.0%	Plays
Tage Thompson C	+0.8%	Plays
WSH
Jakob Chychrun D	+1.1%	Plays
Justin Sourdif C	+0.7%	Plays
Dylan Strome C	+0.6%	Plays
Rasmus Sandin D	+0.5%	OUT · IR
Alex Ovechkin L	+0.5%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (6.84 → 6.87)

12:01 AM 6.84 first run
3:25 AM 6.85 +0.01BUF goalie: Colten Ellis → Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen +0.01; Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-114
4:36 AM 6.85 no change
11:18 AM 6.85 WSH goalie Charlie Lindgren: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-114 → 6.5 o-118
12:18 PM 6.87 +0.02Injuries / lineup: Pierre-Luc Dubois (WSH) back in +0.02; BUF goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: Likely → Confirmed; Justin Sourdif (WSH) off day-to-day; WSH lineup: Tarik El-Bashir Oct 24 12:13 PM; Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-120
12:45 PM 6.87 no change
1:17 PM 6.87 no change
2:14 PM 6.87 no change
2:17 PM 6.87 no change
3:17 PM 6.87 Line 6.5 o-120 → 6.5 o-125
4:18 PM 6.87 Line 6.5 o-125 → 6.5 o-129
4:59 PM 6.87 no change
5:18 PM 6.87 Line 6.5 o-129 → 6.5 o-130
6:18 PM 6.87 no change
6:46 PM 6.87 BUF lineup: Buffalo Sabres Oct 24 6:40 PM; WSH lineup: Sammi Silber Oct 24 6:36 PM

7:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

TOR#19 OFF / #29 DEF72.91●

A. Stolarz ✓ Good 73

EDM#6 OFF / #17 DEF23.68●

T. Jarry ✓ Trash 12

9 goals · proj 6.58 · P(7+) 49%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
TOR	1.90	0.63	+1.6%	0.50	–	-4.2%	-1.3%
EDM	2.33	0.84	-4.3%	0.49	–	+4.8%	+0.3%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
TOR	2.00#19 of 32	1.94#11 of 32	1.90goals
EDM	2.15#9 of 32	2.21#28 of 32	2.33goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
TOR	0.62#10 of 32	0.56#13 of 32	0.63goals
EDM	0.71#3 of 32	0.65#28 of 32	0.84goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
TOR
William Nylander R	-4.6%	Plays
Auston Matthews C	-4.2%	Plays
John Tavares C	-2.9%	OUT · IR
Kirill Marchenko R	-1.6%	Plays
Darren Raddysh D	-1.3%	Plays
EDM
Connor McDavid C	-8.3%	Plays
Leon Draisaitl C	-6.8%	Plays
Evan Bouchard D	-4.9%	Plays
Zach Hyman L	-3.0%	Plays
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C	-1.8%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
TOR
Darren Raddysh D	+0.6%	Plays
Jack Roslovic C	+0.4%	Plays
Kirill Marchenko R	+0.4%	Plays
Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	+0.3%	Plays
Nick Paul L	+0.3%	Plays
EDM
Connor McDavid C	+1.5%	Plays
Leon Draisaitl C	+1.5%	Plays
Evan Bouchard D	+1.4%	Plays
Vasily Podkolzin R	+1.3%	Plays
Zach Hyman L	+0.7%	Plays

Also out: EDM: Mattias Ekholm -0.6% attack, +0.4% defense

How the projection moved on game day (6.69 → 6.58)

12:01 AM 6.69 first run
3:25 AM 6.69 Line 6.5 o-150 → 6.5 o-149
4:36 AM 6.69 no change
11:18 AM 6.69 Line 6.5 o-149 → 6.5 o-156
12:18 PM 6.69 no change
12:45 PM 6.69 no change
1:17 PM 6.69 Line 6.5 o-156 → 6.5 o-158
2:14 PM 6.69 no change
2:17 PM 6.69 no change
3:17 PM 6.69 no change
4:18 PM 6.69 no change
4:59 PM 6.58 -0.11TOR goalie: Sergei Bobrovsky → Anthony Stolarz -0.11
5:18 PM 6.58 Line 6.5 o-158 → 6.5 o-160
6:18 PM 6.58 Line 6.5 o-160 → 6.5 o-163
6:46 PM 6.58 no change

9:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

TBL#3 OFF / #5 DEF42.97●

D. Hildeby ✓ Mid 52

UTA#5 OFF / #6 DEF53.54●

K. Vejmelka ✓ OK 32

9 goals · proj 6.51 · P(7+) 49%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
TBL	2.19	0.59	-0.8%	0.51	-8.0%	-2.2%	+1.2%
UTA	2.06	0.74	-2.4%	0.49	+6.5%	+2.7%	+0.9%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
TBL	2.35#3 of 32	1.89#6 of 32	2.19goals
UTA	2.23#7 of 32	1.88#4 of 32	2.06goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
TBL	0.58#15 of 32	0.56#12 of 32	0.59goals
UTA	0.72#2 of 32	0.56#14 of 32	0.74goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
TBL
Nikita Kucherov R	-7.3%	Plays
Jake Guentzel C	-5.2%	Plays
Brandon Hagel L	-5.1%	Plays
Brayden Point C	-3.5%	Plays
Anthony Cirelli C	-2.8%	Plays
UTA
Dylan Guenther R	-3.9%	Plays
Clayton Keller R	-3.9%	Plays
Nick Schmaltz C	-3.5%	Plays
Logan Cooley C	-2.6%	Plays
Mikhail Sergachev D	-1.6%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
TBL
Gage Goncalves C	+1.3%	Plays
Pontus Holmberg R	+1.1%	Plays
Nikita Kucherov R	+1.1%	Plays
Jake Guentzel C	+1.0%	Plays
Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	+0.9%	Plays
UTA
Clayton Keller R	+1.6%	Plays
Nate Schmidt D	+1.4%	Plays
Barrett Hayton C	+1.1%	Plays
Nick Schmaltz C	+1.0%	Plays
Dylan Guenther R	+0.9%	Plays

Also out: UTA: John Marino +0.2% attack, +0.8% defense; Michael Carcone -0.6% attack, +0.7% defense

How the projection moved on game day (6.27 → 6.51)

12:01 AM 6.27 first run
3:25 AM 6.48 +0.21TBL goalie: Andrei Vasilevskiy → Dennis Hildeby +0.21; Victor Hedman (TBL) day-to-day
4:36 AM 6.48 no change
11:18 AM 6.50 +0.03Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.03; TBL lineup: Gabby Shirley Oct 24 11:08 AM; Line 6.5 o-110 → 6.5 o-119
12:18 PM 6.50 Line 6.5 o-119 → 6.5 o-115
12:45 PM 6.50 UTA lineup: Cole Bagley Oct 24 12:44 PM
1:17 PM 6.50 UTA goalie Karel Vejmelka: Likely → Confirmed
2:14 PM 6.51 +0.01Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated +0.01
2:17 PM 6.51 no change
3:17 PM 6.51 no change
4:18 PM 6.51 no change
4:59 PM 6.51 no change
5:18 PM 6.51 no change
6:18 PM 6.51 no change
6:46 PM 6.51 no change
7:18 PM 6.51 no change
7:22 PM 6.51 no change
8:18 PM 6.51 no change
8:46 PM 6.51 Injuries / lineup: Dominic James (TBL) out, Max Crozier (TBL) out, Victor Hedman (TBL) out, Emil Lilleberg (TBL) back in -0.00; TBL goalie Dennis Hildeby: Likely → Confirmed; TBL lineup: Gabby Shirley Oct 24 8:37 PM; UTA lineup: Utah Mammoth Oct 24 8:35 PM

7:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

SJS#20 OFF / #31 DEF42.79●

A. Nedeljkovic ✓ OK 24

BOS#18 OFF / #14 DEF63.61●

J. Swayman ✓ Strong 89

10 goals · proj 6.40 · P(7+) 47%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
SJS	1.89	0.62	-7.2%	0.50	–	+1.1%	-1.4%
BOS	2.45	0.72	–	0.50	–	-1.7%	+0.3%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
SJS	1.84#27 of 32	2.09#20 of 32	1.89goals
BOS	2.24#6 of 32	2.22#29 of 32	2.45goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
SJS	0.61#11 of 32	0.57#15 of 32	0.62goals
BOS	0.57#18 of 32	0.70#31 of 32	0.72goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
SJS
Macklin Celebrini C	-5.0%	Plays
Will Smith C	-2.4%	Plays
Tyler Toffoli C	-2.0%	Plays
Alexander Wennberg C	-0.9%	OUT
Kiefer Sherwood L	-0.8%	Plays
BOS
David Pastrnak R	-4.5%	Plays
Morgan Geekie C	-3.2%	Plays
Pavel Zacha C	-2.4%	Plays
Elias Lindholm C	-1.6%	Plays
Charlie McAvoy D	-1.1%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
SJS
Macklin Celebrini C	+0.8%	Plays
Will Smith C	+0.7%	Plays
Tyler Toffoli C	+0.6%	Plays
Dmitry Orlov D	+0.6%	Plays
Mason Marchment L	+0.4%	Plays
BOS
David Pastrnak R	+0.9%	Plays
Morgan Geekie C	+0.7%	Plays
Mason Lohrei D	+0.6%	Plays
Casey Mittelstadt C	+0.5%	Plays
JJ Peterka R	+0.3%	Plays

Also out: SJS: Igor Chernyshov -0.8% attack, +0.4% defense

How the projection moved on game day (6.40 → 6.40)

12:01 AM 6.40 first run
3:25 AM 6.49 +0.09SJS goalie: Alex Nedeljkovic → Yaroslav Askarov +0.09; Line 6.5 o-109 → 6.5 o-110
4:36 AM 6.49 no change
11:18 AM 6.49 BOS goalie Jeremy Swayman: Likely → Confirmed; BOS lineup: Jack Studley Oct 24 10:32 AM; Line 6.5 o-110 → 6.5 o-108
12:18 PM 6.40 -0.09SJS goalie: Yaroslav Askarov → Alex Nedeljkovic -0.09; Injuries / lineup: Adam Gaudette (SJS) back in -0.00; SJS lineup: Sheng Peng Oct 24 11:38 AM
12:45 PM 6.40 Line 6.5 o-108 → 6.5 o-109
1:17 PM 6.40 no change
2:14 PM 6.40 no change
2:17 PM 6.40 no change
3:17 PM 6.40 no change
4:18 PM 6.40 Line 6.5 o-109 → 6.5 o-107
4:59 PM 6.40 Line 6.5 o-107 → 6.5 o-108
5:18 PM 6.40 no change
6:18 PM 6.40 Line 6.5 o-108 → 6.5 o-109
6:46 PM 6.40 SJS lineup: Curtis Pashelka Oct 24 6:37 PM; BOS lineup: Scott McLaughlin Oct 24 6:37 PM; Line 6.5 o-109 → 6.5 o-110

7:00 PM ET1U ⚠ lineup

U 6.5 L
paper L -1.00u

NSH#16 OFF / #21 DEF23.12●

J. Saros ✓ OK 37

PIT#10 OFF / #23 DEF33.23●

A. Silovs ✓ Trash 3

5 goals · proj 6.35 · P(7+) 49%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
NSH	1.88	0.59	+3.9%	0.49	–	-1.5%	+2.7%
PIT	2.41	0.57	-1.2%	0.49	–	+0.9%	-6.8%

Why this call

⚠ Lineup change since 12:01 AM: Evgeni Malkin now OUT (was Day-to-day, seen 12:18 PM) · PIT −2.7% · projection 6.42 → 6.35

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NSH	1.81#29 of 32	2.12#21 of 32	1.88goals
PIT	2.29#5 of 32	2.14#23 of 32	2.41goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NSH	0.60#12 of 32	0.54#8 of 32	0.59goals
PIT	0.57#16 of 32	0.55#11 of 32	0.57goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
NSH
Filip Forsberg L	-4.2%	Plays
Steven Stamkos C	-3.8%	Plays
Ryan O'Reilly C	-3.0%	Plays
Roman Josi D	-1.5%	Plays
Jonathan Marchessault R	-1.2%	Plays
PIT
Sidney Crosby C	-3.8%	Plays
Rickard Rakell R	-2.9%	Plays
⚠ Evgeni Malkin C	-2.7%	OUTwas Day-to-day
Bryan Rust R	-2.6%	OUT · IR
Erik Karlsson D	-1.8%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
NSH
Filip Forsberg L	+0.6%	Plays
Steven Stamkos C	+0.6%	Plays
Adam Wilsby D	+0.5%	Plays
Roman Josi D	+0.5%	Plays
Ross Colton C	+0.4%	Plays
PIT
Tommy Novak C	+1.0%	Plays
Ben Kindel C	+0.8%	OUT · IR
Samuel Girard D	+0.8%	OUT · IR
Kaedan Korczak D	+0.7%	Plays
Egor Chinakhov R	+0.5%	OUT

How the projection moved on game day (6.42 → 6.35)

12:01 AM 6.42 first run
3:25 AM 6.41 -0.01NSH goalie: Justus Annunen → Juuse Saros -0.01; Line 6.5 o-108 → 6.5 o-105
4:36 AM 6.41 no change
11:18 AM 6.42 +0.01Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated +0.02; PIT goalie Arturs Silovs: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-105 → 6.5 o-107
12:18 PM 6.35 -0.07Injuries / lineup: Evgeni Malkin (PIT) out -0.07; NSH goalie Juuse Saros: Likely → Confirmed
12:45 PM 6.35 no change
1:17 PM 6.35 no change
2:14 PM 6.35 no change
2:17 PM 6.35 no change
3:17 PM 6.35 Line 6.5 o-107 → 6.5 o-105
4:18 PM 6.35 no change
4:59 PM 6.35 no change
5:18 PM 6.35 no change
6:18 PM 6.35 Line 6.5 o-105 → 6.5 o-107
6:46 PM 6.35 PIT lineup: Pittsburgh Penguins Oct 24 6:34 PM; Line 6.5 o-107 → 6.5 o-109

10:00 PM ETAVOID ⚠ lineup was 1U

U 6.5 ✓ under

MIN#4 OFF / #8 DEF53.31●

J. Wallstedt ✓ Good 61

SEA#28 OFF / #26 DEF12.90●

J. Daccord ✓ OK 30

6 goals · proj 6.20 · P(7+) 46%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
MIN	2.19	0.61	-0.6%	0.49	–	+0.4%	+0.4%
SEA	1.96	0.56	-3.0%	0.50	–	-0.7%	-0.5%

Why this call

⚠ Lineup change since 12:01 AM: Jared McCann now OUT (was Plays, seen 2:14 PM) · SEA −2.0% · projection 6.51 → 6.20

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
MIN	2.04#15 of 32	2.19#26 of 32	2.19goals
SEA	2.08#12 of 32	1.92#9 of 32	1.96goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
MIN	0.63#8 of 32	0.54#6 of 32	0.61goals
SEA	0.53#24 of 32	0.59#20 of 32	0.56goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
MIN
Kirill Kaprizov L	-6.0%	Plays
Matt Boldy L	-4.8%	Plays
Joel Eriksson Ek C	-2.8%	Plays
Quinn Hughes D	-2.7%	Plays
Ryan Hartman R	-0.8%	Plays
SEA
Jordan Eberle R	-2.0%	Plays
⚠ Jared McCann L	-2.0%	OUT · IRwas Plays
Bobby McMann C	-1.5%	Plays
Matty Beniers C	-1.1%	Plays
Kaapo Kakko R	-0.9%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
MIN
Quinn Hughes D	+2.1%	Plays
Kirill Kaprizov L	+1.7%	Plays
Matt Boldy L	+1.1%	Plays
Bobby Brink R	+1.1%	Plays
Jared Spurgeon D	+0.9%	Plays
SEA
Jordan Eberle R	+0.8%	Plays
Matty Beniers C	+0.8%	Plays
Shane Wright C	+0.8%	Plays
Ryker Evans D	+0.7%	Plays
Berkly Catton C	+0.7%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (6.51 → 6.20)

12:01 AM 6.51 first run
3:25 AM 6.33 -0.19MIN goalie: Calvin Pickard → Jesper Wallstedt -0.19; Max Shabanov (MIN) day-to-day; Line 6.5 o+105 → 6.5 o+107
4:36 AM 6.33 Line 6.5 o+107 → 6.5 o+108
11:18 AM 6.32 Line 6.5 o+108 → 6.5 o+105
12:18 PM 6.32 no change
12:45 PM 6.32 no change
1:17 PM 6.32 no change
2:14 PM 6.28 -0.04Injuries / lineup: Jared McCann (SEA) out -0.04; SEA lineup: Mike Benton Oct 24 1:36 PM
2:17 PM 6.28 no change
3:17 PM 6.20 -0.08SEA goalie: Philipp Grubauer → Joey Daccord -0.08; MIN goalie Jesper Wallstedt: Likely → Confirmed
4:18 PM 6.20 no change
4:59 PM 6.20 no change
5:18 PM 6.20 no change
6:18 PM 6.20 no change
6:46 PM 6.20 no change
7:18 PM 6.20 no change
7:22 PM 6.20 no change
8:18 PM 6.20 no change
8:46 PM 6.20 Line 6.5 o+105 → 6.5 o+107
9:18 PM 6.20 no change
9:46 PM 6.20 Injuries / lineup: Maxim Shabanov (MIN) back in +0.00; Maxim Shabanov (MIN) day-to-day; Max Shabanov (MIN) off day-to-day; MIN lineup: Joe Smith Oct 24 9:43 PM; SEA lineup: Sound of Hockey Oct 24 9:41 PM; Line 6.5 o+107 → 6.5 o+106

7:00 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

CAR#1 OFF / #2 DEF43.37●

P. Kochetkov ✓ Mid 46

STL#27 OFF / #13 DEF02.83●

J. Hofer ✓ Good 65

4 goals · proj 6.20 · P(7+) 46%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
CAR	2.41	0.63	-3.5%	0.50	–	+0.9%	-2.3%
STL	1.85	0.45	-1.9%	0.50	–	-1.0%	+4.2%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CAR	2.42#2 of 32	2.03#16 of 32	2.41goals
STL	2.01#17 of 32	1.87#3 of 32	1.85goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CAR	0.69#4 of 32	0.51#5 of 32	0.63goals
STL	0.49#28 of 32	0.51#4 of 32	0.45goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
CAR
Sebastian Aho C	-4.6%	Plays
Andrei Svechnikov R	-4.1%	Plays
Nikolaj Ehlers L	-3.4%	Plays
Jackson Blake R	-2.7%	Plays
Logan Stankoven C	-2.4%	Plays
STL
Robert Thomas C	-2.8%	Plays
Dylan Holloway L	-2.1%	Plays
Jimmy Snuggerud R	-2.1%	Plays
Pavel Buchnevich L	-1.4%	Plays
Jake Neighbours L	-1.1%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
CAR
Jackson Blake R	+1.8%	Plays
Shayne Gostisbehere D	+1.6%	Plays
Nikolaj Ehlers L	+1.5%	Plays
Sean Walker D	+1.5%	Plays
Logan Stankoven C	+1.4%	Plays
STL
Dylan Holloway L	+0.9%	Plays
Dalibor Dvorsky R	+0.7%	Plays
Jake Neighbours L	+0.7%	Plays
Cam Fowler D	+0.7%	Plays
Jimmy Snuggerud R	+0.6%	Plays

Also out: CAR: Taylor Hall -1.3% attack, +0.7% defense; Mark Jankowski -0.7% attack, +0.8% defense; Jordan Staal -0.6% attack, +0.3% defense

How the projection moved on game day (6.20 → 6.20)

12:01 AM 6.20 first run
3:25 AM 6.20 no change
4:36 AM 6.20 Line 6.5 o+104 → 6.5 o+105
11:18 AM 6.20 no change
12:18 PM 6.20 STL goalie Joel Hofer: Likely → Confirmed; STL lineup: Elise Butler Oct 24 12:17 PM
12:45 PM 6.20 Line 6.5 o+105 → 6.5 o+107
1:17 PM 6.20 no change
2:14 PM 6.20 Line 6.5 o+107 → 6.5 o+109
2:17 PM 6.20 no change
3:17 PM 6.20 no change
4:18 PM 6.20 no change
4:59 PM 6.20 no change
5:18 PM 6.20 no change
6:18 PM 6.20 no change
6:46 PM 6.20 CAR goalie Pyotr Kochetkov: Likely → Confirmed; CAR lineup: Walt Ruff Oct 24 6:38 PM; STL lineup: Matthew DeFranks Oct 24 6:39 PM

7:00 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

VGK#8 OFF / #7 DEF13.31●

C. Hart ✓ Trash 12

CBJ#22 OFF / #25 DEF22.86●

C. Talbot ✓ OK 21

3 goals · proj 6.17 · P(7+) 46%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
VGK	2.19	0.77	+0.4%	0.49	–	-1.1%	-3.3%
CBJ	1.88	0.32	+1.6%	0.49	–	+1.2%	+3.0%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
VGK	2.19#8 of 32	2.04#18 of 32	2.19goals
CBJ	2.03#16 of 32	1.89#5 of 32	1.88goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
VGK	0.67#6 of 32	0.64#26 of 32	0.77goals
CBJ	0.46#30 of 32	0.39#1 of 32	0.32goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
VGK
Jack Eichel C	-4.6%	Plays
Mark Stone R	-4.1%	Plays
Mitch Marner R	-3.6%	OUT
Tomas Hertl C	-3.5%	Plays
Ivan Barbashev L	-1.9%	Plays
CBJ
Zach Werenski D	-2.5%	Plays
Adam Fantilli C	-2.3%	Plays
Charlie Coyle C	-1.4%	Plays
Sean Monahan C	-1.4%	Plays
Kent Johnson C	-1.2%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
VGK
Tomas Hertl C	+1.6%	Plays
Shea Theodore D	+1.4%	Plays
Mark Stone R	+1.2%	Plays
Ivan Barbashev L	+1.2%	Plays
Noah Hanifin D	+1.0%	Plays
CBJ
Kent Johnson C	+1.1%	Plays
Damon Severson D	+1.0%	Plays
Adam Fantilli C	+0.9%	Plays
Zach Werenski D	+0.6%	Plays
Denton Mateychuk D	+0.5%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (5.91 → 6.17)

12:01 AM 5.91 first run
3:25 AM 5.95 +0.04VGK goalie: Adin Hill → Carter Hart +0.02; Injuries / lineup: Isac Lundestrom (CBJ) out +0.02; Line 6.5 o+107 → 6.5 o+108
4:36 AM 5.95 no change
11:18 AM 6.17 +0.22CBJ goalie: Jet Greaves → Cam Talbot +0.19; Injuries / lineup: Danton Heinen (CBJ) out, Dmitri Voronkov (CBJ) back in +0.03; CBJ lineup: Mark Scheig Oct 24 10:39 AM; Line 6.5 o+108 → 6.5 o+106
12:18 PM 6.17 VGK goalie Carter Hart: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o+106 → 6.5 o+105
12:45 PM 6.17 Line 6.5 o+105 → 6.5 o+103
1:17 PM 6.17 no change
2:14 PM 6.17 no change
2:17 PM 6.17 no change
3:17 PM 6.17 Line 6.5 o+103 → 6.5 o+105
4:18 PM 6.17 Line 6.5 o+105 → 6.5 o+108
4:59 PM 6.17 no change
5:18 PM 6.17 no change
6:18 PM 6.17 Line 6.5 o+108 → 6.5 o+107
6:46 PM 6.17 VGK lineup: Mark Scheig Oct 24 6:41 PM; CBJ lineup: Aaron Portzline Oct 24 6:35 PM; Line 6.5 o+107 → 6.5 o+108

7:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

NYR#21 OFF / #10 DEF42.92●

D. Garand ✓ Mid 49

OTT#15 OFF / #3 DEF73.11●

J. Johansson ✓ Trash 2

11 goals · proj 6.04 · P(7+) 45%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
NYR	1.75	0.60	+4.3%	0.49	–	-2.1%	+0.9%
OTT	2.01	0.63	-2.1%	0.49	–	+2.1%	-0.5%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NYR	1.97#21 of 32	1.81#1 of 32	1.75goals
OTT	2.04#14 of 32	2.00#14 of 32	2.01goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NYR	0.60#13 of 32	0.55#9 of 32	0.60goals
OTT	0.65#7 of 32	0.54#6 of 32	0.63goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
NYR
Mika Zibanejad C	-3.2%	Plays
Alexis Lafrenière L	-2.5%	Plays
J.T. Miller C	-2.3%	Plays
Adam Fox D	-2.0%	Plays
Pavel Dorofeyev R	-1.5%	Plays
OTT
Tim Stützle C	-4.2%	Plays
Drake Batherson R	-3.4%	Plays
Dylan Cozens C	-2.3%	Plays
Shane Pinto C	-1.4%	Plays
Claude Giroux R	-1.4%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
NYR
Alexis Lafrenière L	+0.8%	Plays
Pavel Dorofeyev R	+0.8%	Plays
Adam Fox D	+0.8%	Plays
Gabe Perreault R	+0.5%	Plays
Oliver Bjorkstrand R	+0.4%	Plays
OTT
Jordan Spence D	+2.2%	Plays
Drake Batherson R	+1.6%	Plays
Dylan Cozens C	+1.4%	Plays
Tim Stützle C	+1.3%	Plays
Tyler Kleven D	+1.1%	Plays

Also out: OTT: Thomas Chabot -0.3% attack, +0.8% defense

How the projection moved on game day (6.12 → 6.04)

12:01 AM 6.12 first run
3:25 AM 6.12 no change
4:36 AM 6.12 no change
11:18 AM 6.04 -0.09OTT goalie: Samuel Ersson → Jonas Johansson -0.09; OTT lineup: Bruce Garrioch Oct 24 10:42 AM; Line 6 o-122 → 6 o-115
12:18 PM 6.04 NYR goalie Dylan Garand: Likely → Confirmed
12:45 PM 6.04 no change
1:17 PM 6.04 no change
2:14 PM 6.04 Line 6 o-115 → 6.5 o-102
2:17 PM 6.04 no change
3:17 PM 6.04 no change
4:18 PM 6.04 Line 6.5 o-102 → 6.5 o+111
4:59 PM 6.04 no change
5:18 PM 6.04 no change
6:18 PM 6.04 no change
6:46 PM 6.04 Eeli Tolvanen (NYR) off day-to-day

1:00 PM ETAVOID

O 5.5 ✗ went over

ANA#14 OFF / #30 DEF53.22●

L. Dostal ✓ OK 37

PHI#31 OFF / #18 DEF42.78●

J. Woll ✓ Good 61

9 goals · proj 6.00 · P(7+) 44%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
ANA	2.12	0.60	-3.0%	0.49	–	+1.5%	+1.7%
PHI	1.81	0.59	-1.2%	0.50	–	-1.3%	-1.7%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
ANA	2.00#18 of 32	2.16#24 of 32	2.12goals
PHI	1.63#32 of 32	2.26#30 of 32	1.81goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
ANA	0.55#19 of 32	0.60#21 of 32	0.60goals
PHI	0.51#26 of 32	0.63#25 of 32	0.59goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
ANA
Leo Carlsson C	-3.0%	Plays
Cutter Gauthier L	-3.0%	Plays
Beckett Sennecke R	-3.0%	Plays
Mikael Granlund C	-1.9%	Plays
Troy Terry R	-1.3%	OUT · IR
PHI
Trevor Zegras C	-2.2%	Plays
Matvei Michkov R	-2.1%	Plays
Travis Konecny R	-1.5%	OUT · IR
Owen Tippett R	-1.4%	OUT · IR
Tyson Foerster R	-0.7%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
ANA
Leo Carlsson C	+0.6%	Plays
Beckett Sennecke R	+0.5%	Plays
Cutter Gauthier L	+0.4%	Plays
Ian Moore D	+0.4%	OUT · IR
A.J. Greer L	+0.2%	Plays
PHI
Jamie Drysdale D	+1.1%	Plays
Owen Tippett R	+1.0%	OUT · IR
Noah Cates L	+1.0%	Plays
Matvei Michkov R	+0.9%	Plays
Trevor Zegras C	+0.9%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (6.02 → 6.00)

12:01 AM 6.02 first run
3:25 AM 6.02 Line 5.5 o-135 → 5.5 o-137
4:36 AM 6.02 no change
11:18 AM 6.02 PHI goalie Joseph Woll: Likely → Confirmed; Line 5.5 o-137 → 5.5 o-125
12:18 PM 6.02 no change
12:45 PM 6.00 -0.02Injuries / lineup: Rasmus Ristolainen (PHI) back in -0.02; ANA goalie Lukas Dostal: Likely → Confirmed; PHI lineup: Charlie O'Connor Oct 24 12:39 PM

10:00 PM ETAVOID

U 6 ✓ under

DET#13 OFF / #11 DEF13.29●

J. Gibson ✓ OK 34

CGY#29 OFF / #28 DEF42.66●

D. Cooley ✓ Good 65

5 goals · proj 5.95 · P(7+) 42%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
DET	2.06	0.73	-3.4%	0.49	–	+2.6%	+1.1%
CGY	1.76	0.51	-0.9%	0.50	–	-3.2%	+0.3%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
DET	1.92#23 of 32	2.18#25 of 32	2.06goals
CGY	1.81#28 of 32	1.98#13 of 32	1.76goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
DET	0.67#5 of 32	0.60#22 of 32	0.73goals
CGY	0.45#31 of 32	0.62#24 of 32	0.51goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
DET
Alex DeBrincat R	-5.4%	Plays
Lucas Raymond L	-3.9%	Plays
Dylan Larkin C	-3.4%	Plays
Viktor Arvidsson L	-1.1%	Plays
Moritz Seider D	-1.1%	Plays
CGY
Matt Coronato R	-1.5%	Plays
Morgan Frost C	-1.4%	Plays
Jonathan Huberdeau L	-0.6%	OUT · IR
Ryan Strome C	-0.4%	Plays
Joel Farabee L	-0.4%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
DET
Moritz Seider D	+1.4%	Plays
Lucas Raymond L	+1.3%	Plays
Alex DeBrincat R	+1.3%	Plays
Emmitt Finnie C	+0.8%	Plays
Dylan Larkin C	+0.6%	Plays
CGY
Morgan Frost C	+0.8%	Plays
Joel Hanley D	+0.4%	OUT · scratch
Matt Coronato R	+0.4%	Plays
Adam Klapka R	+0.4%	Plays
Ryan Strome C	+0.3%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (5.96 → 5.95)

12:01 AM 5.96 first run
3:25 AM 5.96 Line 6 o-123 → 6 o-125
4:36 AM 5.96 no change
11:18 AM 5.96 Line 6 o-125 → 6 o-124
12:18 PM 5.96 Line 6 o-124 → 6 o-122
12:45 PM 5.96 CGY goalie Devin Cooley: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6 o-122 → 6 o-125
1:17 PM 5.96 no change
2:14 PM 5.96 DET goalie John Gibson: Likely → Confirmed
2:17 PM 5.95 -0.01Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated -0.01
3:17 PM 5.95 CGY lineup: Pat Steinberg Oct 24 2:41 PM
4:18 PM 5.95 no change
4:59 PM 5.95 no change
5:18 PM 5.95 no change
6:18 PM 5.95 no change
6:46 PM 5.95 no change
7:18 PM 5.95 Line 6 o-125 → 6 o-122
7:22 PM 5.95 no change
8:18 PM 5.95 no change
8:46 PM 5.95 no change
9:18 PM 5.95 no change
9:46 PM 5.95 CGY lineup: Calgary Flames Oct 24 9:45 PM

3:30 PM ETAVOID

U 5.5 ✓ under

LAK#26 OFF / #16 DEF12.54●

A. Forsberg ✓ Mid 44

NJD#7 OFF / #9 DEF33.05●

J. Allen ✓ Mid 47

4 goals · proj 5.59 · P(7+) 39%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
LAK	1.71	0.42	-2.0%	0.49	–	+0.5%	-1.7%
NJD	1.95	0.63	-1.7%	0.50	–	-0.7%	+1.8%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
LAK	1.84#26 of 32	1.90#7 of 32	1.71goals
NJD	2.07#13 of 32	1.92#9 of 32	1.95goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
LAK	0.47#29 of 32	0.49#2 of 32	0.42goals
NJD	0.59#14 of 32	0.59#18 of 32	0.63goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
LAK
Artemi Panarin L	-4.1%	Plays
Adrian Kempe R	-3.5%	Plays
Quinton Byfield R	-1.3%	OUT
Kevin Fiala L	-1.1%	OUT · IR
Alex Laferriere R	-1.0%	Plays
NJD
Jack Hughes C	-4.1%	Plays
Nico Hischier C	-3.5%	Plays
Jesper Bratt L	-3.4%	Plays
Timo Meier R	-1.8%	Plays
Dougie Hamilton D	-1.4%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
LAK
Brandt Clarke D	+1.7%	Plays
Artemi Panarin L	+1.1%	Plays
Adrian Kempe R	+1.1%	Plays
Alex Laferriere R	+0.9%	Plays
Drew Doughty D	+0.8%	Plays
NJD
Jack Hughes C	+1.2%	Plays
Luke Hughes D	+1.1%	Plays
Dougie Hamilton D	+1.0%	Plays
Jesper Bratt L	+0.9%	Plays
Arseny Gritsyuk R	+0.9%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (5.59 → 5.59)

12:01 AM 5.59 first run
3:25 AM 5.57 -0.01LAK goalie: Anton Forsberg → Darcy Kuemper -0.01
4:36 AM 5.57 no change
11:18 AM 5.57 Line 5.5 o-133 → 5.5 o-131
12:18 PM 5.57 Line 5.5 o-131 → 5.5 o-120
12:45 PM 5.57 no change
1:17 PM 5.57 no change
2:14 PM 5.58 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Declan Chisholm (NJD) out +0.01; NJD goalie Jake Allen: Likely → Confirmed
2:17 PM 5.58 no change
3:17 PM 5.59 +0.01LAK goalie: Darcy Kuemper → Anton Forsberg +0.01; LAK lineup: Zach Dooley Oct 24 3:11 PM; NJD lineup: New Jersey Devils Oct 24 3:16 PM; Line 5.5 o-120 → 5.5 o-121

Two rows per game (away, then home). ● = team projected high-scoring. Proj = (5v5 + PP + Oth) × goalie (Gl) × back-to-back (B2B) × team speed (Spd) × injuries (Inj). Hover or tap any underlined label for an explanation.