Thursday, October 15, 2026

11 games · 1 flag · 6 of 11 went over the line · avg 6.4 goals (projected 6.1) · flags 0-1-0 (-1.00u at close) · calls: 🔨 SLAM 0-1-0 · 1U – · PASS – · AVOID 4 of 10 stayed under

Breakdown (for scoring):greatgoodmidbadtrash

Team

Result

Goalies

Projection breakdown

Team

Proj

Total goals

Proj total

P(7+)

Line

Pick

Goalie

5v5

Oth

B2B

Spd

Inj

UTA#3 OFF / #5 DEF

3.37●

6U 6.5

6.65

53%

6.5 → 6.5

9:00 PM ET
🔨 SLAM
L
paper L -1.00u

K. Vejmelka ✓ Mid 44

2.13

0.76

-0.1%

0.49

–

-0.8%

+0.7%

EDM#4 OFF / #12 DEF

3.28●

D. Levi ✓ OK 25

2.13

0.73

-1.8%

0.49

–

+1.8%

-2.3%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
UTA	2.28#5 of 32	1.90#6 of 32	2.13goals	0.74#2 of 32	0.56#14 of 32	0.76goals
EDM	2.21#7 of 32	1.96#11 of 32	2.13goals	0.69#3 of 32	0.59#20 of 32	0.73goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Pre-game	Player	If out	Pre-game
UTA	Dylan Guenther R	-4.0%	Plays	Clayton Keller R	+1.6%	Plays
	Clayton Keller R	-3.7%	Plays	Nate Schmidt D	+1.4%	Plays
	Nick Schmaltz C	-3.5%	Plays	Barrett Hayton C	+1.0%	Plays
	Logan Cooley C	-2.4%	Plays	Nick Schmaltz C	+1.0%	Plays
	Mikhail Sergachev D	-1.5%	Plays	Dylan Guenther R	+0.9%	Plays
EDM	Connor McDavid C	-7.9%	Plays	Connor McDavid C	+1.5%	Plays
	Leon Draisaitl C	-6.1%	Plays	Leon Draisaitl C	+1.4%	Plays
	Evan Bouchard D	-4.7%	Plays	Evan Bouchard D	+1.4%	Plays
	Zach Hyman L	-2.8%	OUT	Vasily Podkolzin R	+1.3%	Plays
	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C	-1.9%	OUT · IR	Zach Hyman L	+0.6%	OUT

Also out: UTA: Michael Carcone -0.7% attack, +0.8% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.63 → 6.65)

12:01 AM 6.63 first run
12:51 AM 6.69 +0.06EDM goalie: Devon Levi → Tristan Jarry +0.06; UTA goalie Karel Vejmelka: Projected → Likely
4:48 AM 6.69 no change
11:18 AM 6.69 Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-118
12:18 PM 6.69 no change
1:17 PM 6.63 -0.06EDM goalie: Tristan Jarry → Devon Levi -0.06; Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-120
2:18 PM 6.63 Jason Dickinson (EDM) day-to-day; EDM lineup: Bob Stauffer Oct 15 1:32 PM
3:09 PM 6.63 UTA goalie Karel Vejmelka: Likely → Confirmed; UTA lineup: Jason Gregor Oct 15 2:32 PM
3:14 PM 6.63 no change
3:17 PM 6.63 no change
4:12 PM 6.63 no change
4:18 PM 6.63 no change
5:09 PM 6.63 no change
5:17 PM 6.63 no change
6:17 PM 6.63 no change
6:28 PM 6.63 no change
6:46 PM 6.63 no change
7:18 PM 6.63 no change
7:46 PM 6.63 no change
8:18 PM 6.63 no change
8:45 PM 6.65 +0.03Injuries / lineup: Jason Dickinson (EDM) out +0.03; UTA lineup: Utah Mammoth Oct 15 8:34 PM; EDM lineup: Bob Stauffer Oct 15 8:40 PM; Line 6.5 o-120 → 6.5 o-124

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

🔨 SLAM: both teams project as high-scoring (UTA 3.37, EDM 3.28; cutoff 3.09), the line is 6.5, and both are good or better at 5-on-5, the strongest over spot the model has. At 5-on-5, UTA is good (2.13) and EDM is good (2.13); on the power play, UTA is great (0.76) and EDM is great (0.73). UTA faces Devon Levi, an OK goalie, grade 25 (-0.1%); EDM faces Karel Vejmelka, a Mid goalie, grade 44 (-1.8%). Other factors: injuries cost EDM 2.3%. UTA 3.37: 0.27 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: power play +0.19 (its power play ranks #2, EDM's penalty kill and penalty habits #14); 5-on-5 matchup +0.09 (its attack ranks #5 of 32, EDM's defense #6); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.7%). Holding it back: team speed -0.03 (it skates slower than EDM, -0.8%). EDM 3.28: 0.17 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: power play +0.16 (its power play ranks #3, UTA's penalty kill and penalty habits #20); 5-on-5 matchup +0.09 (its attack ranks #7 of 32, UTA's defense #11); team speed +0.06 (it skates faster than UTA, +1.8%). Holding it back: injuries -0.08 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.3%); Karel Vejmelka in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 44, -1.8%). The model projects 6.65 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 53% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over 55% of the time at the opening line and 56.5% at the closing line in 2021-26. Final: 6 goals (UTA 4, EDM 2), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was wrong.

VAN#30 OFF / #32 DEF

2.83●

5U 6.5

6.59

48%

6.5 → 6.5

7:00 PM ET
AVOID
✓ under

L. Meriläinen ✓ Trash 7

1.73

0.61

+0.6%

0.49

–

-1.0%

–

FLA#12 OFF / #15 DEF

3.76●

A. Schmid ✓ Trash 19

2.16

1.05

+2.7%

0.49

–

+0.7%

-1.9%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
VAN	1.82#27 of 32	1.94#9 of 32	1.73goals	0.56#18 of 32	0.60#24 of 32	0.61goals
FLA	1.91#24 of 32	2.31#31 of 32	2.16goals	0.81#1 of 32	0.72#31 of 32	1.05goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Pre-game	Player	If out	Pre-game
VAN	Brock Boeser R	-1.8%	Plays	Linus Karlsson C	+0.7%	Plays
	Jake DeBrusk L	-1.8%	Plays	Jake DeBrusk L	+0.6%	Plays
	Elias Pettersson C	-1.7%	Plays	Elias Pettersson C	+0.5%	Plays
	Marco Rossi C	-1.3%	Plays	Marco Rossi C	+0.5%	Plays
	Linus Karlsson C	-0.9%	Plays	Zeev Buium D	+0.4%	Plays
FLA	Sam Reinhart C	-3.8%	Plays	Niko Mikkola D	+0.8%	Plays
	Carter Verhaeghe C	-3.0%	Plays	Carter Verhaeghe C	+0.8%	Plays
	Sam Bennett C	-3.0%	Plays	Uvis Balinskis D	+0.8%	Plays
	Matthew Tkachuk L	-3.0%	Plays	Sam Bennett C	+0.7%	Plays
	Brad Marchand L	-2.0%	OUT · IR	Sam Reinhart C	+0.6%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (6.58 → 6.59)

12:01 AM 6.58 first run
12:51 AM 6.69 +0.11VAN goalie: Leevi Merilainen → Kevin Lankinen +0.13; FLA goalie: Akira Schmid → Jacob Markstrom -0.02
4:48 AM 6.69 Line 6.5 o+105 → 6.5 o+106
11:17 AM 6.71 +0.03FLA goalie: Jacob Markstrom → Akira Schmid +0.02; Injuries / lineup: Radko Gudas (FLA) out +0.01; Line 6.5 o+106 → 6.5 o+105
12:17 PM 6.59 -0.13VAN goalie: Kevin Lankinen → Leevi Merilainen -0.13; VAN lineup: Thomas Drance Oct 15 11:42 AM; Line 6.5 o+105 → 6.5 o+107
1:18 PM 6.59 Filip Chytil (VAN) day-to-day; Line 6.5 o+107 → 6.5 o+109
2:18 PM 6.59 no change
3:09 PM 6.59 no change
3:14 PM 6.59 no change
3:17 PM 6.59 no change
4:12 PM 6.59 no change
4:18 PM 6.59 no change
5:09 PM 6.59 no change
5:17 PM 6.59 no change
6:17 PM 6.59 no change
6:28 PM 6.59 no change
6:46 PM 6.59 Filip Chytil (VAN) off day-to-day; VAN lineup: Thomas Drance Oct 15 6:44 PM; FLA lineup: Jameson Olive Oct 15 6:38 PM

AVOID: VAN projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (VAN 2.83). The 6.59 total looks high, but most of it comes from FLA; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, VAN is trash (1.73) and FLA is good (2.16); on the power play, VAN is good (0.61) and FLA is great (1.05). VAN faces Akira Schmid, a Trash goalie, grade 19 (+0.6%); FLA faces Leevi Merilainen, a Trash goalie, grade 7 (+2.7%). Other factors: injuries cost FLA 1.9%. VAN 2.83: 0.28 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: power play +0.04 (its power play ranks #18, FLA's penalty kill and penalty habits #24); Akira Schmid in goal +0.02 (a Trash goalie, grade 19, +0.6%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.31 (its attack ranks #27 of 32, FLA's defense #9); team speed -0.03 (it skates slower than FLA, -1.0%). FLA 3.76: 0.65 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: power play +0.48 (its power play ranks #1, VAN's penalty kill and penalty habits #31); 5-on-5 matchup +0.12 (its attack ranks #24 of 32, VAN's defense #31); Leevi Merilainen in goal +0.10 (a Trash goalie, grade 7, +2.7%); team speed +0.03 (it skates faster than VAN, +0.7%). Holding it back: injuries -0.07 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.9%). The model projects 6.59 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 48% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (VAN 2, FLA 3), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

BUF#17 OFF / #17 DEF

3.39●

9O 6.5

6.40

49%

6.5 → 6.5

7:00 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over

U. Luukkonen ✓ OK 27

2.32

0.65

-1.9%

0.49

–

+3.4%

-3.4%

TOR#20 OFF / #31 DEF

3.01●

S. Bobrovsky ✓ Mid 46

1.90

0.67

-0.3%

0.50

–

-3.1%

+1.7%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
BUF	2.12#11 of 32	2.23#30 of 32	2.32goals	0.52#23 of 32	0.69#30 of 32	0.65goals
TOR	1.95#21 of 32	1.99#14 of 32	1.90goals	0.61#13 of 32	0.61#25 of 32	0.67goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Pre-game	Player	If out	Pre-game
BUF	Tage Thompson C	-4.7%	Plays	Rasmus Dahlin D	+1.2%	OUT
	Rasmus Dahlin D	-2.4%	OUT	Josh Doan R	+1.1%	Plays
	Josh Doan R	-1.9%	Plays	Noah Ostlund C	+1.1%	Plays
	Jack Quinn R	-1.9%	Plays	Zach Benson L	+1.0%	Plays
	Jason Zucker L	-1.5%	OUT · IR	Tage Thompson C	+0.8%	Plays
TOR	William Nylander R	-4.6%	Plays	Darren Raddysh D	+0.4%	Plays
	Auston Matthews C	-4.0%	Plays	Jack Roslovic C	+0.3%	Plays
	John Tavares C	-3.5%	Plays	Kirill Marchenko R	+0.3%	Plays
	Kirill Marchenko R	-1.1%	Plays	Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	+0.3%	Plays
	Darren Raddysh D	-0.9%	Plays	Nick Paul L	+0.2%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (6.41 → 6.40)

12:01 AM 6.41 first run
12:51 AM 6.40 -0.01BUF goalie: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen → Colten Ellis -0.01; TOR goalie Sergei Bobrovsky: Projected → Likely
4:47 AM 6.41 +0.01BUF goalie: Colten Ellis → Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen +0.01
11:18 AM 6.40 Line 6.5 o-120 → 6.5 o-125
12:18 PM 6.40 BUF goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: Likely → Confirmed; BUF lineup: Matthew Fairburn Oct 15 11:52 AM; TOR goalie Sergei Bobrovsky: Likely → Confirmed
1:18 PM 6.40 no change
2:18 PM 6.40 TOR lineup: Anna Dua Oct 15 1:30 PM
3:09 PM 6.40 no change
3:14 PM 6.40 no change
3:17 PM 6.40 no change
4:12 PM 6.40 no change
4:18 PM 6.40 no change
5:09 PM 6.40 Line 6.5 o-125 → 6.5 o-126
5:17 PM 6.40 no change
6:17 PM 6.40 Line 6.5 o-126 → 6.5 o-130
6:28 PM 6.40 no change
6:45 PM 6.40 Injuries / lineup: Jiri Kulich (BUF) out -0.00; BUF lineup: @BuffaloSabres Oct 15 6:40 PM; TOR lineup: David Alter Oct 15 6:43 PM

AVOID: TOR projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (TOR 3.01). TOR just misses the cutoff (by 0.08), and the rule needs both teams over it, so the 6.40 total isn't enough on its own. At 5-on-5, BUF is great (2.32) and TOR is bad (1.90); on the power play, BUF is good (0.65) and TOR is great (0.67). BUF faces Sergei Bobrovsky, a Mid goalie, grade 46 (-1.9%); TOR faces Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, an OK goalie, grade 27 (-0.3%). Other factors: BUF's team speed adds 3.4%; injuries cost BUF 3.4%; TOR's team speed costs 3.1%; injuries help TOR 1.7%. BUF 3.39: 0.28 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.28 (its attack ranks #11 of 32, TOR's defense #30); team speed +0.12 (it skates faster than TOR, +3.4%); power play +0.07 (its power play ranks #23, TOR's penalty kill and penalty habits #30). Holding it back: injuries -0.12 (missing players on both teams, net, -3.4%); Sergei Bobrovsky in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 46, -1.9%). TOR 3.01: 0.10 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: power play +0.10 (its power play ranks #13, BUF's penalty kill and penalty habits #25); injuries +0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.7%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.14 (its attack ranks #21 of 32, BUF's defense #14); team speed -0.10 (it skates slower than BUF, -3.1%). The model projects 6.40 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 49% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 9 goals (BUF 5, TOR 4), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

SEA#24 OFF / #22 DEF

2.80●

7O 6.5

6.15

45%

6.5 → 6.5

7:00 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over

P. Grubauer ⇄ Daccord

1.93

0.52

-8.0%

0.50

–

-1.2%

+4.2%

TBL#8 OFF / #6 DEF

3.35●

A. Vasilevskiy ✓ Strong 92

2.39

0.48

-1.4%

0.49

–

+1.1%

-0.2%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
SEA	2.12#11 of 32	1.86#3 of 32	1.93goals	0.51#24 of 32	0.57#18 of 32	0.52goals
TBL	2.22#6 of 32	2.19#29 of 32	2.39goals	0.55#21 of 32	0.49#4 of 32	0.48goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Pre-game	Player	If out	Pre-game
SEA	Jordan Eberle R	-2.0%	Plays	Jordan Eberle R	+0.9%	Plays
	Jared McCann L	-1.9%	Plays	Shane Wright C	+0.8%	Plays
	Bobby McMann C	-1.5%	Plays	Matty Beniers C	+0.8%	Plays
	Matty Beniers C	-1.1%	Plays	Ryker Evans D	+0.7%	Plays
	Shane Wright C	-0.9%	Plays	Brandon Montour D	+0.7%	Plays
TBL	Nikita Kucherov R	-7.3%	Plays	Gage Goncalves C	+1.3%	OUT · scratch
	Brandon Hagel L	-5.0%	Plays	Pontus Holmberg R	+1.1%	Plays
	Jake Guentzel C	-5.0%	Plays	Nikita Kucherov R	+1.1%	Plays
	Brayden Point C	-3.4%	Plays	Jake Guentzel C	+0.9%	Plays
	Anthony Cirelli C	-2.8%	Plays	Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	+0.8%	OUT · scratch

How the projection moved on game day (6.14 → 6.15)

12:01 AM 6.14 first run
12:51 AM 6.14 SEA goalie Joey Daccord: Projected → Likely; TBL goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy: Projected → Likely
4:48 AM 6.14 Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o+100
11:17 AM 6.15 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Charle-Edouard D'Astous (TBL) out, Gage Goncalves (TBL) out, Dominic James (TBL) back in, Emil Lilleberg (TBL) back in +0.02; TBL goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy: Likely → Confirmed; Dominic James (TBL) day-to-day; TBL lineup: Benjamin Pierce Oct 15 10:40 AM; Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o+104
12:18 PM 6.15 Line 6.5 o+104 → 6.5 o+105
1:18 PM 6.15 Line 6.5 o+105 → 6.5 o+104
2:18 PM 6.15 no change
3:09 PM 6.15 no change
3:14 PM 6.15 no change
3:17 PM 6.15 no change
4:12 PM 6.15 no change
4:18 PM 6.15 no change
5:09 PM 6.15 no change
5:17 PM 6.15 no change
6:17 PM 6.15 Line 6.5 o+104 → 6.5 o+105
6:28 PM 6.15 no change
6:46 PM 6.15 Dominic James (TBL) off day-to-day; TBL lineup: Eduardo Encina Oct 15 6:39 PM

AVOID: SEA projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (SEA 2.80). The 6.15 total looks high, but most of it comes from TBL; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, SEA is bad (1.93) and TBL is great (2.39); on the power play, SEA is bad (0.52) and TBL is bad (0.48). SEA faces Andrei Vasilevskiy, a Strong goalie, grade 92 (-8.0%); TBL faces Joey Daccord, a Mid goalie, grade 41 (-1.4%). Other factors: injuries help SEA 4.2%. SEA 2.80: 0.30 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: injuries +0.11 (missing players on both teams, net, +4.2%). Holding it back: Andrei Vasilevskiy in goal -0.24 (a Strong goalie, grade 92, -8.0%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.11 (its attack ranks #11 of 32, TBL's defense #3); power play -0.05 (its power play ranks #24, TBL's penalty kill and penalty habits #18); team speed -0.03 (it skates slower than TBL, -1.2%). TBL 3.35: 0.24 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.35 (its attack ranks #6 of 32, SEA's defense #29); team speed +0.04 (it skates faster than SEA, +1.1%). Holding it back: power play -0.09 (its power play ranks #21, SEA's penalty kill and penalty habits #4); Joey Daccord in goal -0.05 (a Mid goalie, grade 41, -1.4%). The model projects 6.15 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (SEA 3, TBL 4), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

NYI#23 OFF / #19 DEF

2.81●

3U 5.5

6.14

45%

5.5 → 5.5

7:00 PM ET
AVOID
✓ under

S. Varlamov ✓ Mid 44

1.85

0.57

-4.5%

0.50

–

+1.4%

-0.6%

OTT#13 OFF / #7 DEF

3.33●

L. Ullmark ✓ Good 75

2.14

0.76

-1.7%

0.50

–

-0.9%

+0.8%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NYI	1.97#17 of 32	1.91#8 of 32	1.85goals	0.56#19 of 32	0.57#16 of 32	0.57goals
OTT	2.06#15 of 32	2.12#23 of 32	2.14goals	0.63#8 of 32	0.66#27 of 32	0.76goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Pre-game	Player	If out	Pre-game
NYI	Bo Horvat C	-2.7%	Plays	Matthew Schaefer D	+0.9%	Plays
	Matthew Schaefer D	-2.1%	Plays	Mathew Barzal C	+0.8%	OUT · IR
	Mathew Barzal C	-1.9%	OUT · IR	Emil Heineman L	+0.7%	Plays
	Brayden Schenn C	-1.0%	Plays	Ondrej Palat L	+0.5%	Plays
	Calum Ritchie C	-0.7%	Plays	Brayden Schenn C	+0.5%	Plays
OTT	Tim Stützle C	-4.1%	Plays	Jordan Spence D	+2.1%	Plays
	Drake Batherson R	-3.2%	Plays	Drake Batherson R	+1.5%	Plays
	Dylan Cozens C	-2.4%	Plays	Dylan Cozens C	+1.4%	Plays
	Shane Pinto C	-1.6%	Plays	Tim Stützle C	+1.2%	Plays
	Claude Giroux R	-1.3%	Plays	Tyler Kleven D	+1.0%	Plays

Also out: OTT: Jake Sanderson -1.0% attack, +0.6% defense

How the projection moved on game day (5.97 → 6.14)

12:01 AM 5.97 first run
12:51 AM 5.97 NYI goalie Ilya Sorokin: Projected → Likely; OTT goalie Linus Ullmark: Projected → Likely
4:48 AM 5.97 no change
11:17 AM 5.94 -0.04Injuries / lineup: Artem Zub (OTT) back in -0.03; OTT goalie Linus Ullmark: Likely → Confirmed; OTT lineup: Alex Adams Oct 15 10:42 AM; Line 5.5 o-111 → 5.5 o-105
12:17 PM 6.14 +0.21NYI goalie: Ilya Sorokin → Semyon Varlamov +0.21; NYI lineup: Andrew Gross Oct 15 11:39 AM; Line 5.5 o-105 → 5.5 o-110
1:18 PM 6.14 Ridly Greig (OTT) off day-to-day
2:18 PM 6.14 no change
3:09 PM 6.14 no change
3:14 PM 6.14 no change
3:17 PM 6.14 no change
4:12 PM 6.14 no change
4:18 PM 6.14 no change
5:09 PM 6.14 no change
5:17 PM 6.14 no change
6:17 PM 6.14 no change
6:28 PM 6.14 no change
6:46 PM 6.14 NYI lineup: Ethan Sears Oct 15 6:45 PM; Line 5.5 o-110 → 5.5 o-109

AVOID: NYI projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (NYI 2.81); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. The 6.14 total looks high, but most of it comes from OTT; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, NYI is bad (1.85) and OTT is good (2.14); on the power play, NYI is mid (0.57) and OTT is great (0.76). NYI faces Linus Ullmark, a Good goalie, grade 75 (-4.5%); OTT faces Semyon Varlamov, a Mid goalie, grade 44 (-1.7%). NYI 2.81: 0.30 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: team speed +0.04 (it skates faster than OTT, +1.4%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.19 (its attack ranks #17 of 32, OTT's defense #8); Linus Ullmark in goal -0.13 (a Good goalie, grade 75, -4.5%); injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.6%). OTT 3.33: 0.22 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: power play +0.19 (its power play ranks #8, NYI's penalty kill and penalty habits #27); 5-on-5 matchup +0.10 (its attack ranks #15 of 32, NYI's defense #23); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.8%). Holding it back: Semyon Varlamov in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 44, -1.7%); team speed -0.03 (it skates slower than NYI, -0.9%). The model projects 6.14 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 3 goals (NYI 1, OTT 2), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.

SJS#27 OFF / #29 DEF

2.92●

5U 6.5

6.14

46%

6.5 → 6.5

8:00 PM ET
AVOID
✓ under

A. Nedeljkovic ✓ Trash 18

1.86

0.56

-0.9%

0.49

–

+1.0%

+0.1%

NSH#19 OFF / #20 DEF

3.22●

J. Saros ✓ OK 33

1.91

0.83

+0.7%

0.49

–

-1.6%

+0.3%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
SJS	1.80#28 of 32	2.10#21 of 32	1.86goals	0.58#16 of 32	0.54#11 of 32	0.56goals
NSH	1.80#29 of 32	2.16#25 of 32	1.91goals	0.63#9 of 32	0.73#32 of 32	0.83goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Pre-game	Player	If out	Pre-game
SJS	Macklin Celebrini C	-4.5%	Plays	Macklin Celebrini C	+0.8%	Plays
	Will Smith C	-2.2%	Plays	Tyler Toffoli C	+0.7%	Plays
	Tyler Toffoli C	-2.0%	Plays	Dmitry Orlov D	+0.6%	Plays
	Alexander Wennberg C	-0.9%	Plays	Will Smith C	+0.6%	Plays
	Kiefer Sherwood L	-0.8%	Plays	Sam Dickinson D	+0.4%	Plays
NSH	Filip Forsberg L	-4.3%	Plays	Filip Forsberg L	+0.7%	Plays
	Steven Stamkos C	-3.9%	Plays	Steven Stamkos C	+0.7%	Plays
	Ryan O'Reilly C	-3.0%	Plays	Adam Wilsby D	+0.4%	Plays
	Roman Josi D	-1.4%	Plays	Roman Josi D	+0.4%	Plays
	Jonathan Marchessault R	-1.2%	Plays	Ross Colton C	+0.3%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (6.13 → 6.14)

12:01 AM 6.13 first run
12:51 AM 6.13 SJS goalie Alex Nedeljkovic: Projected → Likely; NSH goalie Juuse Saros: Projected → Likely
4:48 AM 6.13 no change
11:18 AM 6.12 no change
12:18 PM 6.12 NSH goalie Juuse Saros: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o+102
1:18 PM 6.12 SJS goalie Alex Nedeljkovic: Likely → Confirmed
2:18 PM 6.12 no change
3:09 PM 6.12 Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o+101
3:14 PM 6.12 no change
3:17 PM 6.12 no change
4:12 PM 6.12 SJS lineup: Sheng Peng Oct 15 3:49 PM; Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o+100
4:18 PM 6.12 no change
5:09 PM 6.12 no change
5:17 PM 6.12 no change
6:17 PM 6.12 Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o+101
6:28 PM 6.12 no change
6:46 PM 6.12 no change
7:18 PM 6.12 no change
7:45 PM 6.14 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Darnell Nurse (SJS) out +0.01; SJS lineup: Sheng Peng Oct 15 7:43 PM; NSH lineup: Alex Daugherty Oct 15 7:43 PM

AVOID: SJS projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (SJS 2.92). The 6.14 total looks high, but most of it comes from NSH; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, SJS is bad (1.86) and NSH is bad (1.91); on the power play, SJS is mid (0.56) and NSH is great (0.83). SJS faces Juuse Saros, an OK goalie, grade 33 (-0.9%); NSH faces Alex Nedeljkovic, a Trash goalie, grade 18 (+0.7%). SJS 2.92: 0.19 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: team speed +0.03 (it skates faster than NSH, +1.0%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.18 (its attack ranks #28 of 32, NSH's defense #21); Juuse Saros in goal -0.02 (an OK goalie, grade 33, -0.9%); power play -0.01 (its power play ranks #16, NSH's penalty kill and penalty habits #11). NSH 3.22: 0.11 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: power play +0.26 (its power play ranks #9, SJS's penalty kill and penalty habits #32); Alex Nedeljkovic in goal +0.02 (a Trash goalie, grade 18, +0.7%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.13 (its attack ranks #29 of 32, SJS's defense #25); team speed -0.05 (it skates slower than SJS, -1.6%). The model projects 6.14 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 46% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (SJS 3, NSH 2), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

WPG#21 OFF / #21 DEF

3.22●

7O 6.5

6.03

44%

6.5 → 6.5

8:00 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over

S. Skinner ✓ Mid 51

2.31

0.56

-2.4%

0.50

–

-1.3%

-0.7%

CHI#31 OFF / #30 DEF

2.81●

S. Knight ✓ Mid 52

1.86

0.44

-2.2%

0.49

–

+0.9%

+1.8%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
WPG	1.96#19 of 32	2.40#32 of 32	2.31goals	0.59#14 of 32	0.52#6 of 32	0.56goals
CHI	1.79#31 of 32	2.12#24 of 32	1.86goals	0.44#30 of 32	0.56#13 of 32	0.44goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Pre-game	Player	If out	Pre-game
WPG	Kyle Connor L	-4.9%	Plays	Cole Perfetti C	+1.3%	Plays
	Mark Scheifele C	-4.5%	Plays	Josh Morrissey D	+1.0%	OUT
	Gabriel Vilardi C	-2.8%	Plays	Nino Niederreiter R	+0.8%	Plays
	Cole Perfetti C	-1.6%	Plays	Alex Iafallo L	+0.7%	Plays
	Josh Morrissey D	-1.4%	OUT	Vladislav Namestnikov C	+0.6%	OUT
CHI	Tyler Bertuzzi L	-2.4%	Plays	Tyler Bertuzzi L	+0.4%	Plays
	Connor Bedard C	-1.8%	Plays	Andrew Mangiapane L	+0.4%	OUT · IR
	Patrick Kane R	-0.9%	Plays	Patrick Kane R	+0.3%	Plays
	Frank Nazar C	-0.7%	Plays	Oliver Moore C	+0.2%	Plays
	Ryan Donato C	-0.6%	Plays	Ryan Donato C	+0.2%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (5.99 → 6.03)

12:01 AM 5.99 first run
12:51 AM 6.18 +0.19CHI goalie: Spencer Knight → Arvid Soderblom +0.19; WPG goalie Stuart Skinner: Projected → Likely
4:47 AM 5.99 -0.19CHI goalie: Arvid Soderblom → Spencer Knight -0.19
11:18 AM 5.99 Line 6.5 o+107 → 6.5 o+108
12:17 PM 6.01 +0.02Injuries / lineup: Frank Nazar (CHI) back in +0.02; WPG goalie Stuart Skinner: Likely → Confirmed; CHI goalie Spencer Knight: Likely → Confirmed; Bowen Byram (CHI) day-to-day; CHI lineup: @CHGO_Blackhawks Oct 15 11:52 AM; Line 6.5 o+108 → 6.5 o+107
1:18 PM 6.01 Bowen Byram (CHI) off day-to-day
2:18 PM 6.01 Vladislav Namestnikov (WPG) day-to-day; WPG lineup: Mitchell Clinton Oct 15 1:36 PM; Line 6.5 o+107 → 6.5 o+108
3:09 PM 6.01 Line 6.5 o+108 → 6.5 o+106
3:14 PM 6.01 no change
3:17 PM 6.01 no change
4:12 PM 6.01 no change
4:18 PM 6.01 no change
5:09 PM 6.01 Line 6.5 o+106 → 6.5 o+109
5:17 PM 6.01 no change
6:17 PM 6.01 no change
6:28 PM 6.01 no change
6:46 PM 6.01 no change
7:18 PM 6.01 no change
7:45 PM 6.03 +0.02Injuries / lineup: Vladislav Namestnikov (WPG) out +0.02; WPG lineup: Mike McIntyre Oct 15 7:40 PM; CHI lineup: @CHGO_Blackhawks Oct 15 7:41 PM

AVOID: CHI projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (CHI 2.81). The 6.03 total looks high, but most of it comes from WPG; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, WPG is great (2.31) and CHI is bad (1.86); on the power play, WPG is mid (0.56) and CHI is trash (0.44). WPG faces Spencer Knight, a Mid goalie, grade 52 (-2.4%); CHI faces Stuart Skinner, a Mid goalie, grade 51 (-2.2%). Other factors: injuries help CHI 1.8%. WPG 3.22: 0.11 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.27 (its attack ranks #19 of 32, CHI's defense #32). Holding it back: Spencer Knight in goal -0.08 (a Mid goalie, grade 52, -2.4%); team speed -0.04 (it skates slower than CHI, -1.3%); injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.7%); power play -0.02 (its power play ranks #14, CHI's penalty kill and penalty habits #6). CHI 2.81: 0.30 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: injuries +0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.8%); team speed +0.03 (it skates faster than WPG, +0.9%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.18 (its attack ranks #31 of 32, WPG's defense #24); power play -0.14 (its power play ranks #30, WPG's penalty kill and penalty habits #13); Stuart Skinner in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 51, -2.2%). The model projects 6.03 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 44% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 5.5 to 6.5, toward the over. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (WPG 3, CHI 4), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

CGY#29 OFF / #28 DEF

2.38●

8O 6.5

5.96

40%

6.5 → 6.5

10:00 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over

D. Wolf ✓ Trash 16

1.66

0.28

+1.1%

0.49

–

-3.3%

-0.1%

VGK#6 OFF / #4 DEF

3.58●

C. Hart ✓ Trash 16

2.32

0.61

+1.1%

0.49

–

+2.7%

+0.9%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CGY	1.89#26 of 32	1.79#1 of 32	1.66goals	0.39#32 of 32	0.40#1 of 32	0.28goals
VGK	2.17#9 of 32	2.17#27 of 32	2.32goals	0.66#6 of 32	0.51#5 of 32	0.61goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Pre-game	Player	If out	Pre-game
CGY	Matt Coronato R	-1.5%	Plays	Morgan Frost C	+0.8%	Plays
	Morgan Frost C	-1.2%	Plays	Joel Hanley D	+0.5%	OUT · scratch
	Jonathan Huberdeau L	-0.6%	OUT · IR	Matt Coronato R	+0.4%	Plays
	Ryan Strome C	-0.4%	Plays	Zach Whitecloud D	+0.4%	Plays
	Mikael Backlund C	-0.4%	Plays	Adam Klapka R	+0.4%	Plays
VGK	Jack Eichel C	-4.8%	Plays	Tomas Hertl C	+1.6%	Plays
	Mark Stone R	-3.9%	Plays	Shea Theodore D	+1.4%	Plays
	Mitch Marner R	-3.9%	Plays	Mark Stone R	+1.3%	Plays
	Tomas Hertl C	-3.6%	Plays	Ivan Barbashev L	+1.1%	Plays
	Ivan Barbashev L	-1.8%	Plays	Noah Hanifin D	+1.1%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (5.97 → 5.96)

12:01 AM 5.97 first run
12:51 AM 5.84 -0.12CGY goalie: Dustin Wolf → Devin Cooley -0.11; VGK goalie: Carter Hart → Adin Hill -0.02
4:47 AM 5.97 +0.12CGY goalie: Devin Cooley → Dustin Wolf +0.11; VGK goalie: Adin Hill → Carter Hart +0.02
11:18 AM 5.96 no change
12:18 PM 5.96 no change
1:18 PM 5.96 no change
2:18 PM 5.96 CGY goalie Dustin Wolf: Likely → Confirmed; VGK lineup: Hannah Kirkell Oct 15 2:05 PM
3:09 PM 5.96 VGK goalie Carter Hart: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o+104 → 6.5 o+103
3:14 PM 5.96 no change
3:17 PM 5.96 no change
4:12 PM 5.96 CGY lineup: Derek Wills Oct 15 3:31 PM; Line 6.5 o+103 → 6.5 o+102
4:18 PM 5.96 no change
5:09 PM 5.96 no change
5:17 PM 5.96 no change
6:17 PM 5.96 Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o+104
6:28 PM 5.96 no change
6:46 PM 5.96 no change
7:18 PM 5.96 no change
7:46 PM 5.96 no change
8:18 PM 5.96 no change
8:45 PM 5.96 no change
9:18 PM 5.96 no change
9:28 PM 5.96 no change
9:45 PM 5.96 VGK lineup: Danny Webster Oct 15 9:39 PM

AVOID: CGY projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (CGY 2.38). At 5-on-5, CGY is trash (1.66) and VGK is great (2.32); on the power play, CGY is trash (0.28) and VGK is good (0.61). CGY faces Carter Hart, a Trash goalie, grade 16 (+1.1%); VGK faces Dustin Wolf, a Trash goalie, grade 16 (+1.1%). Other factors: CGY's team speed costs 3.3%; VGK's team speed adds 2.7%. CGY 2.38: 0.73 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: Carter Hart in goal +0.03 (a Trash goalie, grade 16, +1.1%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.38 (its attack ranks #26 of 32, VGK's defense #1); power play -0.29 (its power play ranks #32, VGK's penalty kill and penalty habits #1); team speed -0.08 (it skates slower than VGK, -3.3%). VGK 3.58: 0.47 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.28 (its attack ranks #9 of 32, CGY's defense #27); team speed +0.09 (it skates faster than CGY, +2.7%); power play +0.04 (its power play ranks #6, CGY's penalty kill and penalty habits #5); Dustin Wolf in goal +0.04 (a Trash goalie, grade 16, +1.1%); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.9%). The model projects 5.96 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 40% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 8 goals (CGY 2, VGK 6), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

PHI#32 OFF / #24 DEF

2.69●

3U 5.5

5.88

42%

5.5 → 5.5

7:30 PM ET
AVOID
✓ under

J. Woll ✓ Mid 55

1.68

0.49

+0.2%

0.49

–

+0.2%

+0.8%

DET#16 OFF / #14 DEF

3.18●

D. Tarasov ✓ OK 22

2.03

0.66

-2.6%

0.50

–

-0.2%

+2.9%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
PHI	1.65#32 of 32	2.06#19 of 32	1.68goals	0.45#29 of 32	0.60#23 of 32	0.49goals
DET	1.91#23 of 32	2.17#26 of 32	2.03goals	0.64#7 of 32	0.57#17 of 32	0.66goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Pre-game	Player	If out	Pre-game
PHI	Trevor Zegras C	-2.0%	Plays	Jamie Drysdale D	+1.1%	Plays
	Matvei Michkov R	-1.8%	Plays	Owen Tippett R	+1.1%	Plays
	Travis Konecny R	-1.8%	OUT · IR	Noah Cates L	+0.9%	Plays
	Owen Tippett R	-1.6%	Plays	Trevor Zegras C	+0.9%	Plays
	Tyson Foerster R	-0.8%	Plays	Matvei Michkov R	+0.9%	Plays
DET	Alex DeBrincat R	-5.4%	Plays	Moritz Seider D	+1.3%	Plays
	Lucas Raymond L	-3.6%	Plays	Alex DeBrincat R	+1.2%	Plays
	Dylan Larkin C	-3.1%	Plays	Lucas Raymond L	+1.2%	Plays
	Moritz Seider D	-1.1%	Plays	Emmitt Finnie C	+0.7%	Plays
	Viktor Arvidsson L	-0.8%	Plays	Dylan Larkin C	+0.5%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (5.88 → 5.88)

12:01 AM 5.88 first run
12:51 AM 5.88 PHI goalie Joseph Woll: Projected → Likely
4:48 AM 5.88 Line 5.5 o-121 → 5.5 o-120
11:18 AM 5.88 DET lineup: Ansar Khan Oct 15 10:42 AM
12:18 PM 5.88 no change
1:18 PM 5.88 no change
2:18 PM 5.88 no change
3:09 PM 5.88 no change
3:14 PM 5.88 no change
3:17 PM 5.88 no change
4:12 PM 5.88 no change
4:18 PM 5.88 no change
5:09 PM 5.88 no change
5:17 PM 5.88 no change
6:17 PM 5.88 PHI goalie Joseph Woll: Likely → Confirmed
6:28 PM 5.88 no change
6:46 PM 5.88 no change
7:18 PM 5.88 PHI lineup: Jackie Spiegel Oct 15 7:07 PM

AVOID: PHI projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (PHI 2.69); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, PHI is trash (1.68) and DET is mid (2.03); on the power play, PHI is bad (0.49) and DET is great (0.66). PHI faces Daniil Tarasov, an OK goalie, grade 22 (+0.2%); DET faces Joseph Woll, a Mid goalie, grade 55 (-2.6%). Other factors: injuries help DET 2.9%. PHI 2.69: 0.42 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.8%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.36 (its attack ranks #32 of 32, DET's defense #19); power play -0.08 (its power play ranks #29, DET's penalty kill and penalty habits #23). DET 3.18: 0.08 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: injuries +0.09 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.9%); power play +0.08 (its power play ranks #7, PHI's penalty kill and penalty habits #17). Holding it back: Joseph Woll in goal -0.08 (a Mid goalie, grade 55, -2.6%). The model projects 5.88 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 42% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 3 goals (PHI 1, DET 2), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.

NYR#18 OFF / #8 DEF

3.04●

8O 6.5

5.87

43%

6.5 → 6.5

7:00 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over

D. Garand ✓ Mid 58

1.91

0.59

+1.1%

0.49

–

-0.1%

+0.9%

NJD#10 OFF / #13 DEF

2.83●

N. Daws ✓ Trash 15

1.90

0.54

-2.8%

0.50

–

-0.2%

-0.6%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NYR	1.95#21 of 32	1.99#15 of 32	1.91goals	0.62#11 of 32	0.53#9 of 32	0.59goals
NJD	1.97#18 of 32	1.97#12 of 32	1.90goals	0.57#17 of 32	0.52#7 of 32	0.54goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Pre-game	Player	If out	Pre-game
NYR	Mika Zibanejad C	-3.2%	Plays	Alexis Lafrenière L	+0.8%	Plays
	Alexis Lafrenière L	-2.5%	Plays	Adam Fox D	+0.7%	Plays
	J.T. Miller C	-2.2%	Plays	Pavel Dorofeyev R	+0.6%	Plays
	Adam Fox D	-1.9%	Plays	Gabe Perreault R	+0.5%	Plays
	Pavel Dorofeyev R	-1.2%	Plays	Tye Kartye L	+0.4%	Plays
NJD	Jack Hughes C	-4.2%	Plays	Jack Hughes C	+1.2%	Plays
	Jesper Bratt L	-3.6%	Plays	Luke Hughes D	+1.1%	Plays
	Nico Hischier C	-3.5%	Plays	Jesper Bratt L	+0.9%	Plays
	Timo Meier R	-1.8%	Plays	Dougie Hamilton D	+0.9%	Plays
	Dougie Hamilton D	-1.4%	Plays	Arseny Gritsyuk R	+0.9%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (5.76 → 5.87)

12:01 AM 5.76 first run
12:51 AM 5.87 +0.11NJD goalie: Jake Allen → Nico Daws +0.11; NYR goalie Dylan Garand: Projected → Likely
4:47 AM 5.76 -0.11NJD goalie: Nico Daws → Jake Allen -0.11; Line 5.5 o-138 → 6 o-127
11:17 AM 5.87 +0.10NJD goalie: Jake Allen → Nico Daws +0.11; NJD lineup: Mike Morreale Oct 15 10:39 AM; Line 6 o-127 → 6 o-118
12:18 PM 5.87 NYR goalie Dylan Garand: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6 o-118 → 6 o-115
1:18 PM 5.87 no change
2:18 PM 5.87 Line 6 o-115 → 6 o-118
3:09 PM 5.87 no change
3:14 PM 5.87 no change
3:17 PM 5.87 no change
4:12 PM 5.87 no change
4:18 PM 5.87 no change
5:09 PM 5.87 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Joe Veleno (NYR) out +0.01
6:17 PM 5.87 no change
6:28 PM 5.87 no change
6:46 PM 5.87 NYR lineup: Vince Mercogliano Oct 15 6:36 PM; NJD lineup: @NJDevils Oct 15 6:43 PM; Line 6 o-118 → 6.5 o-104

AVOID: NYR and NJD project under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (NYR 3.04, NJD 2.83). At 5-on-5, NYR is bad (1.91) and NJD is bad (1.90); on the power play, NYR is mid (0.59) and NJD is mid (0.54). NYR faces Nico Daws, a Trash goalie, grade 15 (+1.1%); NJD faces Dylan Garand, a Mid goalie, grade 58 (-2.8%). NYR 3.04: 0.07 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: Nico Daws in goal +0.03 (a Trash goalie, grade 15, +1.1%); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.9%); power play +0.01 (its power play ranks #11, NJD's penalty kill and penalty habits #9). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.14 (its attack ranks #21 of 32, NJD's defense #15). NJD 2.83: 0.28 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.14 (its attack ranks #18 of 32, NYR's defense #12); Dylan Garand in goal -0.08 (a Mid goalie, grade 58, -2.8%); power play -0.03 (its power play ranks #17, NYR's penalty kill and penalty habits #7); injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.6%). The model projects 5.87 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 43% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 5.5 to 6.5, toward the over. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 8 goals (NYR 1, NJD 7), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

STL#27 OFF / #10 DEF

2.86●

9O 6

5.82

43%

6 → 5.5 ↓

8:00 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over

J. Hofer ✓ Good 63

2.00

0.42

-3.2%

0.50

–

-0.3%

+1.6%

MIN#7 OFF / #9 DEF

2.96●

J. Wallstedt ✓ Good 62

1.86

0.63

-3.3%

0.50

–

+0.1%

+2.3%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
STL	2.04#16 of 32	1.99#13 of 32	2.00goals	0.41#31 of 32	0.57#15 of 32	0.42goals
MIN	1.96#20 of 32	1.94#10 of 32	1.86goals	0.66#5 of 32	0.52#8 of 32	0.63goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Pre-game	Player	If out	Pre-game
STL	Robert Thomas C	-2.6%	Plays	Dylan Holloway L	+0.8%	Plays
	Dylan Holloway L	-1.8%	Plays	Dalibor Dvorsky R	+0.8%	Plays
	Jimmy Snuggerud R	-1.8%	Plays	Cam Fowler D	+0.8%	Plays
	Pavel Buchnevich L	-1.4%	OUT	Jake Neighbours L	+0.7%	Plays
	Jake Neighbours L	-1.1%	Plays	Jimmy Snuggerud R	+0.6%	Plays
MIN	Kirill Kaprizov L	-5.5%	Plays	Quinn Hughes D	+1.9%	Plays
	Matt Boldy L	-4.3%	Plays	Kirill Kaprizov L	+1.6%	Plays
	Quinn Hughes D	-2.5%	Plays	Matt Boldy L	+1.0%	Plays
	Joel Eriksson Ek C	-2.4%	Plays	Jared Spurgeon D	+1.0%	OUT
	Ryan Hartman R	-0.8%	Plays	Bobby Brink R	+0.9%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (5.82 → 5.82)

12:01 AM 5.82 first run
12:51 AM 5.82 STL goalie Joel Hofer: Projected → Likely; MIN goalie Jesper Wallstedt: Projected → Likely
4:48 AM 5.82 no change
11:18 AM 5.82 no change
12:17 PM 5.85 +0.04Injuries / lineup: Olli Maatta (MIN) out +0.04; MIN goalie Jesper Wallstedt: Likely → Confirmed; MIN lineup: Projected Oct 15 11:48 AM
1:17 PM 5.82 -0.03Injuries / lineup: Pavel Buchnevich (STL) out -0.03
2:18 PM 5.82 STL lineup: Lou Korac Oct 15 1:59 PM
3:09 PM 5.82 no change
3:14 PM 5.82 no change
3:17 PM 5.82 no change
4:12 PM 5.82 no change
4:18 PM 5.82 no change
5:09 PM 5.82 no change
5:17 PM 5.82 no change
6:17 PM 5.82 no change
6:28 PM 5.82 no change
6:46 PM 5.82 no change
7:18 PM 5.82 STL lineup: Jeremy Rutherford Oct 15 7:09 PM
7:46 PM 5.82 STL goalie Joel Hofer: Likely → Confirmed; MIN lineup: Dylan Loucks Oct 15 7:42 PM; Line 5.5 o-135 → 6 o-110

AVOID: STL and MIN project under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (STL 2.86, MIN 2.96). At 5-on-5, STL is mid (2.00) and MIN is bad (1.86); on the power play, STL is trash (0.42) and MIN is good (0.63). STL faces Jesper Wallstedt, a Good goalie, grade 62 (-3.2%); MIN faces Joel Hofer, a Good goalie, grade 63 (-3.3%). Other factors: injuries help STL 1.6%; injuries help MIN 2.3%. STL 2.86: 0.25 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: injuries +0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.6%). Holding it back: power play -0.15 (its power play ranks #31, MIN's penalty kill and penalty habits #15); Jesper Wallstedt in goal -0.09 (a Good goalie, grade 62, -3.2%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.04 (its attack ranks #16 of 32, MIN's defense #13). MIN 2.96: 0.15 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: injuries +0.07 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.3%); power play +0.05 (its power play ranks #5, STL's penalty kill and penalty habits #8). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.18 (its attack ranks #20 of 32, STL's defense #10); Joel Hofer in goal -0.10 (a Good goalie, grade 63, -3.3%). The model projects 5.82 total goals against a 6 line, with a 43% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 5.5 to 6, toward the over. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 9 goals (STL 4, MIN 5), so it went over 6 and the call was wrong.

9:00 PM ET🔨 SLAM

U 6.5 L
paper L -1.00u

UTA#3 OFF / #5 DEF43.37●

K. Vejmelka ✓ Mid 44

EDM#4 OFF / #12 DEF23.28●

D. Levi ✓ OK 25

6 goals · proj 6.65 · P(7+) 53%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
UTA	2.13	0.76	-0.1%	0.49	–	-0.8%	+0.7%
EDM	2.13	0.73	-1.8%	0.49	–	+1.8%	-2.3%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
UTA	2.28#5 of 32	1.90#6 of 32	2.13goals
EDM	2.21#7 of 32	1.96#11 of 32	2.13goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
UTA	0.74#2 of 32	0.56#14 of 32	0.76goals
EDM	0.69#3 of 32	0.59#20 of 32	0.73goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
UTA
Dylan Guenther R	-4.0%	Plays
Clayton Keller R	-3.7%	Plays
Nick Schmaltz C	-3.5%	Plays
Logan Cooley C	-2.4%	Plays
Mikhail Sergachev D	-1.5%	Plays
EDM
Connor McDavid C	-7.9%	Plays
Leon Draisaitl C	-6.1%	Plays
Evan Bouchard D	-4.7%	Plays
Zach Hyman L	-2.8%	OUT
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C	-1.9%	OUT · IR

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
UTA
Clayton Keller R	+1.6%	Plays
Nate Schmidt D	+1.4%	Plays
Barrett Hayton C	+1.0%	Plays
Nick Schmaltz C	+1.0%	Plays
Dylan Guenther R	+0.9%	Plays
EDM
Connor McDavid C	+1.5%	Plays
Leon Draisaitl C	+1.4%	Plays
Evan Bouchard D	+1.4%	Plays
Vasily Podkolzin R	+1.3%	Plays
Zach Hyman L	+0.6%	OUT

Also out: UTA: Michael Carcone -0.7% attack, +0.8% defense

How the projection moved on game day (6.63 → 6.65)

12:01 AM 6.63 first run
12:51 AM 6.69 +0.06EDM goalie: Devon Levi → Tristan Jarry +0.06; UTA goalie Karel Vejmelka: Projected → Likely
4:48 AM 6.69 no change
11:18 AM 6.69 Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-118
12:18 PM 6.69 no change
1:17 PM 6.63 -0.06EDM goalie: Tristan Jarry → Devon Levi -0.06; Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-120
2:18 PM 6.63 Jason Dickinson (EDM) day-to-day; EDM lineup: Bob Stauffer Oct 15 1:32 PM
3:09 PM 6.63 UTA goalie Karel Vejmelka: Likely → Confirmed; UTA lineup: Jason Gregor Oct 15 2:32 PM
3:14 PM 6.63 no change
3:17 PM 6.63 no change
4:12 PM 6.63 no change
4:18 PM 6.63 no change
5:09 PM 6.63 no change
5:17 PM 6.63 no change
6:17 PM 6.63 no change
6:28 PM 6.63 no change
6:46 PM 6.63 no change
7:18 PM 6.63 no change
7:46 PM 6.63 no change
8:18 PM 6.63 no change
8:45 PM 6.65 +0.03Injuries / lineup: Jason Dickinson (EDM) out +0.03; UTA lineup: Utah Mammoth Oct 15 8:34 PM; EDM lineup: Bob Stauffer Oct 15 8:40 PM; Line 6.5 o-120 → 6.5 o-124

7:00 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

VAN#30 OFF / #32 DEF22.83●

L. Meriläinen ✓ Trash 7

FLA#12 OFF / #15 DEF33.76●

A. Schmid ✓ Trash 19

5 goals · proj 6.59 · P(7+) 48%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
VAN	1.73	0.61	+0.6%	0.49	–	-1.0%	–
FLA	2.16	1.05	+2.7%	0.49	–	+0.7%	-1.9%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
VAN	1.82#27 of 32	1.94#9 of 32	1.73goals
FLA	1.91#24 of 32	2.31#31 of 32	2.16goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
VAN	0.56#18 of 32	0.60#24 of 32	0.61goals
FLA	0.81#1 of 32	0.72#31 of 32	1.05goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
VAN
Brock Boeser R	-1.8%	Plays
Jake DeBrusk L	-1.8%	Plays
Elias Pettersson C	-1.7%	Plays
Marco Rossi C	-1.3%	Plays
Linus Karlsson C	-0.9%	Plays
FLA
Sam Reinhart C	-3.8%	Plays
Carter Verhaeghe C	-3.0%	Plays
Sam Bennett C	-3.0%	Plays
Matthew Tkachuk L	-3.0%	Plays
Brad Marchand L	-2.0%	OUT · IR

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
VAN
Linus Karlsson C	+0.7%	Plays
Jake DeBrusk L	+0.6%	Plays
Elias Pettersson C	+0.5%	Plays
Marco Rossi C	+0.5%	Plays
Zeev Buium D	+0.4%	Plays
FLA
Niko Mikkola D	+0.8%	Plays
Carter Verhaeghe C	+0.8%	Plays
Uvis Balinskis D	+0.8%	Plays
Sam Bennett C	+0.7%	Plays
Sam Reinhart C	+0.6%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (6.58 → 6.59)

12:01 AM 6.58 first run
12:51 AM 6.69 +0.11VAN goalie: Leevi Merilainen → Kevin Lankinen +0.13; FLA goalie: Akira Schmid → Jacob Markstrom -0.02
4:48 AM 6.69 Line 6.5 o+105 → 6.5 o+106
11:17 AM 6.71 +0.03FLA goalie: Jacob Markstrom → Akira Schmid +0.02; Injuries / lineup: Radko Gudas (FLA) out +0.01; Line 6.5 o+106 → 6.5 o+105
12:17 PM 6.59 -0.13VAN goalie: Kevin Lankinen → Leevi Merilainen -0.13; VAN lineup: Thomas Drance Oct 15 11:42 AM; Line 6.5 o+105 → 6.5 o+107
1:18 PM 6.59 Filip Chytil (VAN) day-to-day; Line 6.5 o+107 → 6.5 o+109
2:18 PM 6.59 no change
3:09 PM 6.59 no change
3:14 PM 6.59 no change
3:17 PM 6.59 no change
4:12 PM 6.59 no change
4:18 PM 6.59 no change
5:09 PM 6.59 no change
5:17 PM 6.59 no change
6:17 PM 6.59 no change
6:28 PM 6.59 no change
6:46 PM 6.59 Filip Chytil (VAN) off day-to-day; VAN lineup: Thomas Drance Oct 15 6:44 PM; FLA lineup: Jameson Olive Oct 15 6:38 PM

7:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

BUF#17 OFF / #17 DEF53.39●

U. Luukkonen ✓ OK 27

TOR#20 OFF / #31 DEF43.01●

S. Bobrovsky ✓ Mid 46

9 goals · proj 6.40 · P(7+) 49%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
BUF	2.32	0.65	-1.9%	0.49	–	+3.4%	-3.4%
TOR	1.90	0.67	-0.3%	0.50	–	-3.1%	+1.7%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
BUF	2.12#11 of 32	2.23#30 of 32	2.32goals
TOR	1.95#21 of 32	1.99#14 of 32	1.90goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
BUF	0.52#23 of 32	0.69#30 of 32	0.65goals
TOR	0.61#13 of 32	0.61#25 of 32	0.67goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
BUF
Tage Thompson C	-4.7%	Plays
Rasmus Dahlin D	-2.4%	OUT
Josh Doan R	-1.9%	Plays
Jack Quinn R	-1.9%	Plays
Jason Zucker L	-1.5%	OUT · IR
TOR
William Nylander R	-4.6%	Plays
Auston Matthews C	-4.0%	Plays
John Tavares C	-3.5%	Plays
Kirill Marchenko R	-1.1%	Plays
Darren Raddysh D	-0.9%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
BUF
Rasmus Dahlin D	+1.2%	OUT
Josh Doan R	+1.1%	Plays
Noah Ostlund C	+1.1%	Plays
Zach Benson L	+1.0%	Plays
Tage Thompson C	+0.8%	Plays
TOR
Darren Raddysh D	+0.4%	Plays
Jack Roslovic C	+0.3%	Plays
Kirill Marchenko R	+0.3%	Plays
Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	+0.3%	Plays
Nick Paul L	+0.2%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (6.41 → 6.40)

12:01 AM 6.41 first run
12:51 AM 6.40 -0.01BUF goalie: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen → Colten Ellis -0.01; TOR goalie Sergei Bobrovsky: Projected → Likely
4:47 AM 6.41 +0.01BUF goalie: Colten Ellis → Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen +0.01
11:18 AM 6.40 Line 6.5 o-120 → 6.5 o-125
12:18 PM 6.40 BUF goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: Likely → Confirmed; BUF lineup: Matthew Fairburn Oct 15 11:52 AM; TOR goalie Sergei Bobrovsky: Likely → Confirmed
1:18 PM 6.40 no change
2:18 PM 6.40 TOR lineup: Anna Dua Oct 15 1:30 PM
3:09 PM 6.40 no change
3:14 PM 6.40 no change
3:17 PM 6.40 no change
4:12 PM 6.40 no change
4:18 PM 6.40 no change
5:09 PM 6.40 Line 6.5 o-125 → 6.5 o-126
5:17 PM 6.40 no change
6:17 PM 6.40 Line 6.5 o-126 → 6.5 o-130
6:28 PM 6.40 no change
6:45 PM 6.40 Injuries / lineup: Jiri Kulich (BUF) out -0.00; BUF lineup: @BuffaloSabres Oct 15 6:40 PM; TOR lineup: David Alter Oct 15 6:43 PM

7:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

SEA#24 OFF / #22 DEF32.80●

P. Grubauer ⇄ Daccord

TBL#8 OFF / #6 DEF43.35●

A. Vasilevskiy ✓ Strong 92

7 goals · proj 6.15 · P(7+) 45%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
SEA	1.93	0.52	-8.0%	0.50	–	-1.2%	+4.2%
TBL	2.39	0.48	-1.4%	0.49	–	+1.1%	-0.2%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
SEA	2.12#11 of 32	1.86#3 of 32	1.93goals
TBL	2.22#6 of 32	2.19#29 of 32	2.39goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
SEA	0.51#24 of 32	0.57#18 of 32	0.52goals
TBL	0.55#21 of 32	0.49#4 of 32	0.48goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
SEA
Jordan Eberle R	-2.0%	Plays
Jared McCann L	-1.9%	Plays
Bobby McMann C	-1.5%	Plays
Matty Beniers C	-1.1%	Plays
Shane Wright C	-0.9%	Plays
TBL
Nikita Kucherov R	-7.3%	Plays
Brandon Hagel L	-5.0%	Plays
Jake Guentzel C	-5.0%	Plays
Brayden Point C	-3.4%	Plays
Anthony Cirelli C	-2.8%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
SEA
Jordan Eberle R	+0.9%	Plays
Shane Wright C	+0.8%	Plays
Matty Beniers C	+0.8%	Plays
Ryker Evans D	+0.7%	Plays
Brandon Montour D	+0.7%	Plays
TBL
Gage Goncalves C	+1.3%	OUT · scratch
Pontus Holmberg R	+1.1%	Plays
Nikita Kucherov R	+1.1%	Plays
Jake Guentzel C	+0.9%	Plays
Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	+0.8%	OUT · scratch

How the projection moved on game day (6.14 → 6.15)

12:01 AM 6.14 first run
12:51 AM 6.14 SEA goalie Joey Daccord: Projected → Likely; TBL goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy: Projected → Likely
4:48 AM 6.14 Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o+100
11:17 AM 6.15 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Charle-Edouard D'Astous (TBL) out, Gage Goncalves (TBL) out, Dominic James (TBL) back in, Emil Lilleberg (TBL) back in +0.02; TBL goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy: Likely → Confirmed; Dominic James (TBL) day-to-day; TBL lineup: Benjamin Pierce Oct 15 10:40 AM; Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o+104
12:18 PM 6.15 Line 6.5 o+104 → 6.5 o+105
1:18 PM 6.15 Line 6.5 o+105 → 6.5 o+104
2:18 PM 6.15 no change
3:09 PM 6.15 no change
3:14 PM 6.15 no change
3:17 PM 6.15 no change
4:12 PM 6.15 no change
4:18 PM 6.15 no change
5:09 PM 6.15 no change
5:17 PM 6.15 no change
6:17 PM 6.15 Line 6.5 o+104 → 6.5 o+105
6:28 PM 6.15 no change
6:46 PM 6.15 Dominic James (TBL) off day-to-day; TBL lineup: Eduardo Encina Oct 15 6:39 PM

7:00 PM ETAVOID

U 5.5 ✓ under

NYI#23 OFF / #19 DEF12.81●

S. Varlamov ✓ Mid 44

OTT#13 OFF / #7 DEF23.33●

L. Ullmark ✓ Good 75

3 goals · proj 6.14 · P(7+) 45%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
NYI	1.85	0.57	-4.5%	0.50	–	+1.4%	-0.6%
OTT	2.14	0.76	-1.7%	0.50	–	-0.9%	+0.8%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NYI	1.97#17 of 32	1.91#8 of 32	1.85goals
OTT	2.06#15 of 32	2.12#23 of 32	2.14goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NYI	0.56#19 of 32	0.57#16 of 32	0.57goals
OTT	0.63#8 of 32	0.66#27 of 32	0.76goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
NYI
Bo Horvat C	-2.7%	Plays
Matthew Schaefer D	-2.1%	Plays
Mathew Barzal C	-1.9%	OUT · IR
Brayden Schenn C	-1.0%	Plays
Calum Ritchie C	-0.7%	Plays
OTT
Tim Stützle C	-4.1%	Plays
Drake Batherson R	-3.2%	Plays
Dylan Cozens C	-2.4%	Plays
Shane Pinto C	-1.6%	Plays
Claude Giroux R	-1.3%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
NYI
Matthew Schaefer D	+0.9%	Plays
Mathew Barzal C	+0.8%	OUT · IR
Emil Heineman L	+0.7%	Plays
Ondrej Palat L	+0.5%	Plays
Brayden Schenn C	+0.5%	Plays
OTT
Jordan Spence D	+2.1%	Plays
Drake Batherson R	+1.5%	Plays
Dylan Cozens C	+1.4%	Plays
Tim Stützle C	+1.2%	Plays
Tyler Kleven D	+1.0%	Plays

Also out: OTT: Jake Sanderson -1.0% attack, +0.6% defense

How the projection moved on game day (5.97 → 6.14)

12:01 AM 5.97 first run
12:51 AM 5.97 NYI goalie Ilya Sorokin: Projected → Likely; OTT goalie Linus Ullmark: Projected → Likely
4:48 AM 5.97 no change
11:17 AM 5.94 -0.04Injuries / lineup: Artem Zub (OTT) back in -0.03; OTT goalie Linus Ullmark: Likely → Confirmed; OTT lineup: Alex Adams Oct 15 10:42 AM; Line 5.5 o-111 → 5.5 o-105
12:17 PM 6.14 +0.21NYI goalie: Ilya Sorokin → Semyon Varlamov +0.21; NYI lineup: Andrew Gross Oct 15 11:39 AM; Line 5.5 o-105 → 5.5 o-110
1:18 PM 6.14 Ridly Greig (OTT) off day-to-day
2:18 PM 6.14 no change
3:09 PM 6.14 no change
3:14 PM 6.14 no change
3:17 PM 6.14 no change
4:12 PM 6.14 no change
4:18 PM 6.14 no change
5:09 PM 6.14 no change
5:17 PM 6.14 no change
6:17 PM 6.14 no change
6:28 PM 6.14 no change
6:46 PM 6.14 NYI lineup: Ethan Sears Oct 15 6:45 PM; Line 5.5 o-110 → 5.5 o-109

8:00 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

SJS#27 OFF / #29 DEF32.92●

A. Nedeljkovic ✓ Trash 18

NSH#19 OFF / #20 DEF23.22●

J. Saros ✓ OK 33

5 goals · proj 6.14 · P(7+) 46%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
SJS	1.86	0.56	-0.9%	0.49	–	+1.0%	+0.1%
NSH	1.91	0.83	+0.7%	0.49	–	-1.6%	+0.3%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
SJS	1.80#28 of 32	2.10#21 of 32	1.86goals
NSH	1.80#29 of 32	2.16#25 of 32	1.91goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
SJS	0.58#16 of 32	0.54#11 of 32	0.56goals
NSH	0.63#9 of 32	0.73#32 of 32	0.83goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
SJS
Macklin Celebrini C	-4.5%	Plays
Will Smith C	-2.2%	Plays
Tyler Toffoli C	-2.0%	Plays
Alexander Wennberg C	-0.9%	Plays
Kiefer Sherwood L	-0.8%	Plays
NSH
Filip Forsberg L	-4.3%	Plays
Steven Stamkos C	-3.9%	Plays
Ryan O'Reilly C	-3.0%	Plays
Roman Josi D	-1.4%	Plays
Jonathan Marchessault R	-1.2%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
SJS
Macklin Celebrini C	+0.8%	Plays
Tyler Toffoli C	+0.7%	Plays
Dmitry Orlov D	+0.6%	Plays
Will Smith C	+0.6%	Plays
Sam Dickinson D	+0.4%	Plays
NSH
Filip Forsberg L	+0.7%	Plays
Steven Stamkos C	+0.7%	Plays
Adam Wilsby D	+0.4%	Plays
Roman Josi D	+0.4%	Plays
Ross Colton C	+0.3%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (6.13 → 6.14)

12:01 AM 6.13 first run
12:51 AM 6.13 SJS goalie Alex Nedeljkovic: Projected → Likely; NSH goalie Juuse Saros: Projected → Likely
4:48 AM 6.13 no change
11:18 AM 6.12 no change
12:18 PM 6.12 NSH goalie Juuse Saros: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o+102
1:18 PM 6.12 SJS goalie Alex Nedeljkovic: Likely → Confirmed
2:18 PM 6.12 no change
3:09 PM 6.12 Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o+101
3:14 PM 6.12 no change
3:17 PM 6.12 no change
4:12 PM 6.12 SJS lineup: Sheng Peng Oct 15 3:49 PM; Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o+100
4:18 PM 6.12 no change
5:09 PM 6.12 no change
5:17 PM 6.12 no change
6:17 PM 6.12 Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o+101
6:28 PM 6.12 no change
6:46 PM 6.12 no change
7:18 PM 6.12 no change
7:45 PM 6.14 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Darnell Nurse (SJS) out +0.01; SJS lineup: Sheng Peng Oct 15 7:43 PM; NSH lineup: Alex Daugherty Oct 15 7:43 PM

8:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

WPG#21 OFF / #21 DEF33.22●

S. Skinner ✓ Mid 51

CHI#31 OFF / #30 DEF42.81●

S. Knight ✓ Mid 52

7 goals · proj 6.03 · P(7+) 44%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
WPG	2.31	0.56	-2.4%	0.50	–	-1.3%	-0.7%
CHI	1.86	0.44	-2.2%	0.49	–	+0.9%	+1.8%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
WPG	1.96#19 of 32	2.40#32 of 32	2.31goals
CHI	1.79#31 of 32	2.12#24 of 32	1.86goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
WPG	0.59#14 of 32	0.52#6 of 32	0.56goals
CHI	0.44#30 of 32	0.56#13 of 32	0.44goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
WPG
Kyle Connor L	-4.9%	Plays
Mark Scheifele C	-4.5%	Plays
Gabriel Vilardi C	-2.8%	Plays
Cole Perfetti C	-1.6%	Plays
Josh Morrissey D	-1.4%	OUT
CHI
Tyler Bertuzzi L	-2.4%	Plays
Connor Bedard C	-1.8%	Plays
Patrick Kane R	-0.9%	Plays
Frank Nazar C	-0.7%	Plays
Ryan Donato C	-0.6%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
WPG
Cole Perfetti C	+1.3%	Plays
Josh Morrissey D	+1.0%	OUT
Nino Niederreiter R	+0.8%	Plays
Alex Iafallo L	+0.7%	Plays
Vladislav Namestnikov C	+0.6%	OUT
CHI
Tyler Bertuzzi L	+0.4%	Plays
Andrew Mangiapane L	+0.4%	OUT · IR
Patrick Kane R	+0.3%	Plays
Oliver Moore C	+0.2%	Plays
Ryan Donato C	+0.2%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (5.99 → 6.03)

12:01 AM 5.99 first run
12:51 AM 6.18 +0.19CHI goalie: Spencer Knight → Arvid Soderblom +0.19; WPG goalie Stuart Skinner: Projected → Likely
4:47 AM 5.99 -0.19CHI goalie: Arvid Soderblom → Spencer Knight -0.19
11:18 AM 5.99 Line 6.5 o+107 → 6.5 o+108
12:17 PM 6.01 +0.02Injuries / lineup: Frank Nazar (CHI) back in +0.02; WPG goalie Stuart Skinner: Likely → Confirmed; CHI goalie Spencer Knight: Likely → Confirmed; Bowen Byram (CHI) day-to-day; CHI lineup: @CHGO_Blackhawks Oct 15 11:52 AM; Line 6.5 o+108 → 6.5 o+107
1:18 PM 6.01 Bowen Byram (CHI) off day-to-day
2:18 PM 6.01 Vladislav Namestnikov (WPG) day-to-day; WPG lineup: Mitchell Clinton Oct 15 1:36 PM; Line 6.5 o+107 → 6.5 o+108
3:09 PM 6.01 Line 6.5 o+108 → 6.5 o+106
3:14 PM 6.01 no change
3:17 PM 6.01 no change
4:12 PM 6.01 no change
4:18 PM 6.01 no change
5:09 PM 6.01 Line 6.5 o+106 → 6.5 o+109
5:17 PM 6.01 no change
6:17 PM 6.01 no change
6:28 PM 6.01 no change
6:46 PM 6.01 no change
7:18 PM 6.01 no change
7:45 PM 6.03 +0.02Injuries / lineup: Vladislav Namestnikov (WPG) out +0.02; WPG lineup: Mike McIntyre Oct 15 7:40 PM; CHI lineup: @CHGO_Blackhawks Oct 15 7:41 PM

10:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

CGY#29 OFF / #28 DEF22.38●

D. Wolf ✓ Trash 16

VGK#6 OFF / #4 DEF63.58●

C. Hart ✓ Trash 16

8 goals · proj 5.96 · P(7+) 40%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
CGY	1.66	0.28	+1.1%	0.49	–	-3.3%	-0.1%
VGK	2.32	0.61	+1.1%	0.49	–	+2.7%	+0.9%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CGY	1.89#26 of 32	1.79#1 of 32	1.66goals
VGK	2.17#9 of 32	2.17#27 of 32	2.32goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CGY	0.39#32 of 32	0.40#1 of 32	0.28goals
VGK	0.66#6 of 32	0.51#5 of 32	0.61goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
CGY
Matt Coronato R	-1.5%	Plays
Morgan Frost C	-1.2%	Plays
Jonathan Huberdeau L	-0.6%	OUT · IR
Ryan Strome C	-0.4%	Plays
Mikael Backlund C	-0.4%	Plays
VGK
Jack Eichel C	-4.8%	Plays
Mark Stone R	-3.9%	Plays
Mitch Marner R	-3.9%	Plays
Tomas Hertl C	-3.6%	Plays
Ivan Barbashev L	-1.8%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
CGY
Morgan Frost C	+0.8%	Plays
Joel Hanley D	+0.5%	OUT · scratch
Matt Coronato R	+0.4%	Plays
Zach Whitecloud D	+0.4%	Plays
Adam Klapka R	+0.4%	Plays
VGK
Tomas Hertl C	+1.6%	Plays
Shea Theodore D	+1.4%	Plays
Mark Stone R	+1.3%	Plays
Ivan Barbashev L	+1.1%	Plays
Noah Hanifin D	+1.1%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (5.97 → 5.96)

12:01 AM 5.97 first run
12:51 AM 5.84 -0.12CGY goalie: Dustin Wolf → Devin Cooley -0.11; VGK goalie: Carter Hart → Adin Hill -0.02
4:47 AM 5.97 +0.12CGY goalie: Devin Cooley → Dustin Wolf +0.11; VGK goalie: Adin Hill → Carter Hart +0.02
11:18 AM 5.96 no change
12:18 PM 5.96 no change
1:18 PM 5.96 no change
2:18 PM 5.96 CGY goalie Dustin Wolf: Likely → Confirmed; VGK lineup: Hannah Kirkell Oct 15 2:05 PM
3:09 PM 5.96 VGK goalie Carter Hart: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o+104 → 6.5 o+103
3:14 PM 5.96 no change
3:17 PM 5.96 no change
4:12 PM 5.96 CGY lineup: Derek Wills Oct 15 3:31 PM; Line 6.5 o+103 → 6.5 o+102
4:18 PM 5.96 no change
5:09 PM 5.96 no change
5:17 PM 5.96 no change
6:17 PM 5.96 Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o+104
6:28 PM 5.96 no change
6:46 PM 5.96 no change
7:18 PM 5.96 no change
7:46 PM 5.96 no change
8:18 PM 5.96 no change
8:45 PM 5.96 no change
9:18 PM 5.96 no change
9:28 PM 5.96 no change
9:45 PM 5.96 VGK lineup: Danny Webster Oct 15 9:39 PM

7:30 PM ETAVOID

U 5.5 ✓ under

PHI#32 OFF / #24 DEF12.69●

J. Woll ✓ Mid 55

DET#16 OFF / #14 DEF23.18●

D. Tarasov ✓ OK 22

3 goals · proj 5.88 · P(7+) 42%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
PHI	1.68	0.49	+0.2%	0.49	–	+0.2%	+0.8%
DET	2.03	0.66	-2.6%	0.50	–	-0.2%	+2.9%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
PHI	1.65#32 of 32	2.06#19 of 32	1.68goals
DET	1.91#23 of 32	2.17#26 of 32	2.03goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
PHI	0.45#29 of 32	0.60#23 of 32	0.49goals
DET	0.64#7 of 32	0.57#17 of 32	0.66goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
PHI
Trevor Zegras C	-2.0%	Plays
Matvei Michkov R	-1.8%	Plays
Travis Konecny R	-1.8%	OUT · IR
Owen Tippett R	-1.6%	Plays
Tyson Foerster R	-0.8%	Plays
DET
Alex DeBrincat R	-5.4%	Plays
Lucas Raymond L	-3.6%	Plays
Dylan Larkin C	-3.1%	Plays
Moritz Seider D	-1.1%	Plays
Viktor Arvidsson L	-0.8%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
PHI
Jamie Drysdale D	+1.1%	Plays
Owen Tippett R	+1.1%	Plays
Noah Cates L	+0.9%	Plays
Trevor Zegras C	+0.9%	Plays
Matvei Michkov R	+0.9%	Plays
DET
Moritz Seider D	+1.3%	Plays
Alex DeBrincat R	+1.2%	Plays
Lucas Raymond L	+1.2%	Plays
Emmitt Finnie C	+0.7%	Plays
Dylan Larkin C	+0.5%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (5.88 → 5.88)

12:01 AM 5.88 first run
12:51 AM 5.88 PHI goalie Joseph Woll: Projected → Likely
4:48 AM 5.88 Line 5.5 o-121 → 5.5 o-120
11:18 AM 5.88 DET lineup: Ansar Khan Oct 15 10:42 AM
12:18 PM 5.88 no change
1:18 PM 5.88 no change
2:18 PM 5.88 no change
3:09 PM 5.88 no change
3:14 PM 5.88 no change
3:17 PM 5.88 no change
4:12 PM 5.88 no change
4:18 PM 5.88 no change
5:09 PM 5.88 no change
5:17 PM 5.88 no change
6:17 PM 5.88 PHI goalie Joseph Woll: Likely → Confirmed
6:28 PM 5.88 no change
6:46 PM 5.88 no change
7:18 PM 5.88 PHI lineup: Jackie Spiegel Oct 15 7:07 PM

7:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

NYR#18 OFF / #8 DEF13.04●

D. Garand ✓ Mid 58

NJD#10 OFF / #13 DEF72.83●

N. Daws ✓ Trash 15

8 goals · proj 5.87 · P(7+) 43%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
NYR	1.91	0.59	+1.1%	0.49	–	-0.1%	+0.9%
NJD	1.90	0.54	-2.8%	0.50	–	-0.2%	-0.6%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NYR	1.95#21 of 32	1.99#15 of 32	1.91goals
NJD	1.97#18 of 32	1.97#12 of 32	1.90goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NYR	0.62#11 of 32	0.53#9 of 32	0.59goals
NJD	0.57#17 of 32	0.52#7 of 32	0.54goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
NYR
Mika Zibanejad C	-3.2%	Plays
Alexis Lafrenière L	-2.5%	Plays
J.T. Miller C	-2.2%	Plays
Adam Fox D	-1.9%	Plays
Pavel Dorofeyev R	-1.2%	Plays
NJD
Jack Hughes C	-4.2%	Plays
Jesper Bratt L	-3.6%	Plays
Nico Hischier C	-3.5%	Plays
Timo Meier R	-1.8%	Plays
Dougie Hamilton D	-1.4%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
NYR
Alexis Lafrenière L	+0.8%	Plays
Adam Fox D	+0.7%	Plays
Pavel Dorofeyev R	+0.6%	Plays
Gabe Perreault R	+0.5%	Plays
Tye Kartye L	+0.4%	Plays
NJD
Jack Hughes C	+1.2%	Plays
Luke Hughes D	+1.1%	Plays
Jesper Bratt L	+0.9%	Plays
Dougie Hamilton D	+0.9%	Plays
Arseny Gritsyuk R	+0.9%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (5.76 → 5.87)

12:01 AM 5.76 first run
12:51 AM 5.87 +0.11NJD goalie: Jake Allen → Nico Daws +0.11; NYR goalie Dylan Garand: Projected → Likely
4:47 AM 5.76 -0.11NJD goalie: Nico Daws → Jake Allen -0.11; Line 5.5 o-138 → 6 o-127
11:17 AM 5.87 +0.10NJD goalie: Jake Allen → Nico Daws +0.11; NJD lineup: Mike Morreale Oct 15 10:39 AM; Line 6 o-127 → 6 o-118
12:18 PM 5.87 NYR goalie Dylan Garand: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6 o-118 → 6 o-115
1:18 PM 5.87 no change
2:18 PM 5.87 Line 6 o-115 → 6 o-118
3:09 PM 5.87 no change
3:14 PM 5.87 no change
3:17 PM 5.87 no change
4:12 PM 5.87 no change
4:18 PM 5.87 no change
5:09 PM 5.87 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Joe Veleno (NYR) out +0.01
6:17 PM 5.87 no change
6:28 PM 5.87 no change
6:46 PM 5.87 NYR lineup: Vince Mercogliano Oct 15 6:36 PM; NJD lineup: @NJDevils Oct 15 6:43 PM; Line 6 o-118 → 6.5 o-104

8:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6 ✗ went over

STL#27 OFF / #10 DEF42.86●

J. Hofer ✓ Good 63

MIN#7 OFF / #9 DEF52.96●

J. Wallstedt ✓ Good 62

9 goals · proj 5.82 · P(7+) 43%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
STL	2.00	0.42	-3.2%	0.50	–	-0.3%	+1.6%
MIN	1.86	0.63	-3.3%	0.50	–	+0.1%	+2.3%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
STL	2.04#16 of 32	1.99#13 of 32	2.00goals
MIN	1.96#20 of 32	1.94#10 of 32	1.86goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
STL	0.41#31 of 32	0.57#15 of 32	0.42goals
MIN	0.66#5 of 32	0.52#8 of 32	0.63goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
STL
Robert Thomas C	-2.6%	Plays
Dylan Holloway L	-1.8%	Plays
Jimmy Snuggerud R	-1.8%	Plays
Pavel Buchnevich L	-1.4%	OUT
Jake Neighbours L	-1.1%	Plays
MIN
Kirill Kaprizov L	-5.5%	Plays
Matt Boldy L	-4.3%	Plays
Quinn Hughes D	-2.5%	Plays
Joel Eriksson Ek C	-2.4%	Plays
Ryan Hartman R	-0.8%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
STL
Dylan Holloway L	+0.8%	Plays
Dalibor Dvorsky R	+0.8%	Plays
Cam Fowler D	+0.8%	Plays
Jake Neighbours L	+0.7%	Plays
Jimmy Snuggerud R	+0.6%	Plays
MIN
Quinn Hughes D	+1.9%	Plays
Kirill Kaprizov L	+1.6%	Plays
Matt Boldy L	+1.0%	Plays
Jared Spurgeon D	+1.0%	OUT
Bobby Brink R	+0.9%	Plays

How the projection moved on game day (5.82 → 5.82)

12:01 AM 5.82 first run
12:51 AM 5.82 STL goalie Joel Hofer: Projected → Likely; MIN goalie Jesper Wallstedt: Projected → Likely
4:48 AM 5.82 no change
11:18 AM 5.82 no change
12:17 PM 5.85 +0.04Injuries / lineup: Olli Maatta (MIN) out +0.04; MIN goalie Jesper Wallstedt: Likely → Confirmed; MIN lineup: Projected Oct 15 11:48 AM
1:17 PM 5.82 -0.03Injuries / lineup: Pavel Buchnevich (STL) out -0.03
2:18 PM 5.82 STL lineup: Lou Korac Oct 15 1:59 PM
3:09 PM 5.82 no change
3:14 PM 5.82 no change
3:17 PM 5.82 no change
4:12 PM 5.82 no change
4:18 PM 5.82 no change
5:09 PM 5.82 no change
5:17 PM 5.82 no change
6:17 PM 5.82 no change
6:28 PM 5.82 no change
6:46 PM 5.82 no change
7:18 PM 5.82 STL lineup: Jeremy Rutherford Oct 15 7:09 PM
7:46 PM 5.82 STL goalie Joel Hofer: Likely → Confirmed; MIN lineup: Dylan Loucks Oct 15 7:42 PM; Line 5.5 o-135 → 6 o-110

Two rows per game (away, then home). ● = team projected high-scoring. Proj = (5v5 + PP + Oth) × goalie (Gl) × back-to-back (B2B) × team speed (Spd) × injuries (Inj). Hover or tap any underlined label for an explanation.