Friday, October 9, 2026

4 games · 1 flag · 1 of 4 went over the line · avg 6.0 goals (projected 6.3) · flags 0-1-0 (-1.00u at close) · calls: 🔨 SLAM 0-1-0 · 1U – · PASS – · AVOID 2 of 3 stayed under

Breakdown (for scoring):greatgoodmidbadtrash
TeamResultGoaliesProjection breakdown
TeamGProjTotal goalsProj totalP(7+)LinePickGoalie5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
PIT#5 OFF / #15 DEF23.39●5U 6.56.6252%6.5 → 6.57:00 PM ET
🔨 SLAM
L
paper L -1.00u		S. Murashov ✓ Trash 142.250.71+0.1%0.51–-2.0%-0.3%
CBJ#15 OFF / #18 DEF33.22●C. Talbot ✓ OK 222.120.44+1.3%0.50–+1.9%+2.1%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
PIT2.34#2 of 321.96#11 of 322.25goals0.63#11 of 320.62#24 of 320.71goals
CBJ2.08#12 of 322.08#19 of 322.12goals0.50#26 of 320.49#3 of 320.44goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?PlayerIf outPlayed?
PITSidney Crosby C-3.6%PlayedTommy Novak C+1.0%Played
Bryan Rust R-2.9%PlayedBen Kindel C+0.9%Played
Rickard Rakell R-2.8%PlayedSamuel Girard D+0.8%Played
Evgeni Malkin C-2.5%PlayedEgor Chinakhov R+0.6%Played
Erik Karlsson D-1.8%PlayedEvgeni Malkin C+0.4%Played
CBJZach Werenski D-2.5%PlayedDamon Severson D+0.9%Played
Adam Fantilli C-2.2%PlayedKent Johnson C+0.8%Played
Sean Monahan C-1.5%PlayedAdam Fantilli C+0.8%Played
Dmitri Voronkov L-1.4%PlayedZach Werenski D+0.6%Played
Charlie Coyle C-1.3%PlayedDmitri Voronkov L+0.6%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.56 → 6.62)
  • 1:00 AM 6.56 first run
  • 3:31 AM 6.58 +0.03Injuries / lineup: Damon Severson (CBJ) out +0.03
  • 11:18 AM 6.76 +0.17CBJ goalie: Jet Greaves → Cam Talbot +0.19; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 6.5 o-108 → 6.5 o-115
  • 12:17 PM 6.62 -0.14PIT goalie: Arturs Silovs → Sergei Murashov -0.11; Injuries / lineup: Damon Severson (CBJ) back in -0.03; PIT lineup: @PensInsideScoop Oct 9 12:06 PM; CBJ lineup: Wes Minke Oct 9 12:04 PM; Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-117
  • 1:17 PM 6.62 no change
  • 2:17 PM 6.62 no change
  • 2:41 PM 6.62 no change
  • 3:17 PM 6.62 Line 6.5 o-117 → 6.5 o-118
  • 4:09 PM 6.62 Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-120
  • 4:17 PM 6.62 Line 6.5 o-120 → 6.5 o-121
  • 5:17 PM 6.62 Line 6.5 o-121 → 6.5 o-123
  • 6:17 PM 6.62 no change
  • 6:45 PM 6.62 Line 6.5 o-123 → 6.5 o-124

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

🔨 SLAM: both teams project as high-scoring (PIT 3.39, CBJ 3.22; cutoff 3.09), the line is 6.5, and both are good or better at 5-on-5, the strongest over spot the model has. At 5-on-5, PIT is great (2.25) and CBJ is good (2.12); on the power play, PIT is great (0.71) and CBJ is trash (0.44). PIT faces Cam Talbot, an OK goalie, grade 22 (+0.1%); CBJ faces Sergei Murashov, a Trash goalie, grade 14 (+1.3%). Other factors: injuries help CBJ 2.1%. PIT 3.39: 0.27 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.21 (its attack ranks #2 of 32, CBJ's defense #11); power play +0.14 (its power play ranks #11, CBJ's penalty kill and penalty habits #24). Holding it back: team speed -0.07 (it skates slower than CBJ, -2.0%); injuries -0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.3%). CBJ 3.22: 0.10 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.08 (its attack ranks #12 of 32, PIT's defense #19); injuries +0.07 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.1%); team speed +0.06 (it skates faster than PIT, +1.9%); Sergei Murashov in goal +0.04 (a Trash goalie, grade 14, +1.3%). Holding it back: power play -0.14 (its power play ranks #26, PIT's penalty kill and penalty habits #3). The model projects 6.62 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 52% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over 55% of the time at the opening line and 56.5% at the closing line in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (PIT 2, CBJ 3), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was wrong.
ANA#8 OFF / #26 DEF53.42●6U 6.56.5050%6.5 → 6.58:00 PM ET
AVOID near miss −0.01 was PASS
✓ under		L. Dostal ✓ OK 282.170.65-1.1%0.50–+3.1%+1.0%
WPG#19 OFF / #23 DEF13.08●C. Stevenson ✓ OK 362.000.70-0.4%0.51–-3.2%-0.2%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
ANA2.06#13 of 322.14#23 of 322.17goals0.64#10 of 320.56#16 of 320.65goals
WPG1.95#19 of 322.09#20 of 322.00goals0.60#14 of 320.64#28 of 320.70goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?PlayerIf outPlayed?
ANACutter Gauthier L-3.1%PlayedLeo Carlsson C+0.6%Played
Leo Carlsson C-3.0%PlayedBeckett Sennecke R+0.6%Played
Beckett Sennecke R-3.0%PlayedIan Moore D+0.5%Didn't play
Mikael Granlund C-2.0%PlayedCutter Gauthier L+0.5%Played
Troy Terry R-1.8%Didn't playJackson LaCombe D+0.4%Played
WPGKyle Connor L-5.0%PlayedCole Perfetti C+1.3%Played
Mark Scheifele C-4.5%PlayedJosh Morrissey D+1.1%Didn't play
Gabriel Vilardi C-2.8%PlayedNino Niederreiter R+0.8%Didn't play
Josh Morrissey D-1.5%Didn't playAlex Iafallo L+0.6%Played
Cole Perfetti C-1.4%PlayedVladislav Namestnikov C+0.6%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.48 → 6.50)
  • 1:00 AM 6.48 first run
  • 3:31 AM 6.48 no change
  • 11:18 AM 6.47 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 6.5 o-103 → 6.5 o-102
  • 12:17 PM 6.50 +0.03WPG goalie: Stuart Skinner → Clay Stevenson +0.04; Injuries / lineup: Josh Morrissey (WPG) out -0.00; WPG lineup: Ken Wiebe Oct 9 11:52 AM
  • 1:17 PM 6.50 no change
  • 2:17 PM 6.50 no change
  • 2:41 PM 6.50 no change
  • 3:17 PM 6.50 no change
  • 4:09 PM 6.50 no change
  • 4:17 PM 6.50 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.50 no change
  • 6:17 PM 6.50 no change
  • 6:45 PM 6.50 no change
  • 7:17 PM 6.50 Line 6.5 o-102 → 6.5 o-101
  • 7:45 PM 6.50 ANA lineup: Projected Oct 9 7:42 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: WPG projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (WPG 3.08). WPG just misses the cutoff (by 0.01), and the rule needs both teams over it, so the 6.50 total isn't enough on its own. At 5-on-5, ANA is good (2.17) and WPG is mid (2.00); on the power play, ANA is great (0.65) and WPG is great (0.70). ANA faces Clay Stevenson, an OK goalie, grade 36 (-1.1%); WPG faces Lukas Dostal, an OK goalie, grade 28 (-0.4%). Other factors: ANA's team speed adds 3.1%; WPG's team speed costs 3.2%. ANA 3.42: 0.29 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.12 (its attack ranks #13 of 32, WPG's defense #23); team speed +0.10 (it skates faster than WPG, +3.1%); power play +0.08 (its power play ranks #10, WPG's penalty kill and penalty habits #16); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.0%). Holding it back: Clay Stevenson in goal -0.04 (an OK goalie, grade 36, -1.1%). WPG 3.08: 0.04 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: power play +0.12 (its power play ranks #14, ANA's penalty kill and penalty habits #28). Holding it back: team speed -0.10 (it skates slower than ANA, -3.2%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.04 (its attack ranks #19 of 32, ANA's defense #20); Lukas Dostal in goal -0.01 (an OK goalie, grade 28, -0.4%). The model projects 6.50 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 50% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 6 goals (ANA 5, WPG 1), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.
SEA#28 OFF / #20 DEF63.00●9O 66.2247%6 → 67:00 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over		P. Grubauer ✓ Trash 81.950.55-1.4%0.51–-0.9%+2.3%
DET#13 OFF / #13 DEF33.21●J. Gibson ✓ OK 401.970.62+2.4%0.50–+0.6%+1.1%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
SEA2.02#16 of 321.96#10 of 321.95goals0.52#24 of 320.59#22 of 320.55goals
DET1.90#26 of 322.11#22 of 321.97goals0.65#6 of 320.52#7 of 320.62goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?PlayerIf outPlayed?
SEAJordan Eberle R-2.0%PlayedJordan Eberle R+0.9%Played
Jared McCann L-1.7%PlayedShane Wright C+0.8%Played
Bobby McMann C-1.5%PlayedMatty Beniers C+0.7%Played
Matty Beniers C-1.1%PlayedRyker Evans D+0.7%Played
Shane Wright C-0.9%PlayedBrandon Montour D+0.6%Played
DETAlex DeBrincat R-5.1%PlayedMoritz Seider D+1.3%Played
Lucas Raymond L-3.7%PlayedAlex DeBrincat R+1.2%Played
Dylan Larkin C-3.1%PlayedLucas Raymond L+1.2%Played
Moritz Seider D-1.1%PlayedEmmitt Finnie C+0.7%Played
Viktor Arvidsson L-0.5%PlayedAxel Sandin-Pellikka D+0.6%Didn't play

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.23 → 6.22)
  • 1:00 AM 6.23 first run
  • 3:31 AM 6.12 -0.11SEA goalie: Philipp Grubauer → Joey Daccord -0.11
  • 11:18 AM 6.10 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 6 o-115 → 6 o-113
  • 12:17 PM 6.10 no change
  • 1:17 PM 6.10 no change
  • 2:17 PM 6.10 no change
  • 2:41 PM 6.10 no change
  • 3:17 PM 6.10 no change
  • 4:09 PM 6.10 Line 6 o-113 → 6 o-111
  • 4:17 PM 6.10 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.10 SEA lineup: Geoff Baker Oct 9 4:29 PM; Line 6 o-111 → 6 o-110
  • 6:17 PM 6.22 +0.11SEA goalie: Joey Daccord → Philipp Grubauer +0.11
  • 6:45 PM 6.22 SEA goalie Philipp Grubauer: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6 o-110 → 6 o-111

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: SEA projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (SEA 3.00). SEA just misses the cutoff (by 0.09), and the rule needs both teams over it, so the 6.22 total isn't enough on its own. At 5-on-5, SEA is mid (1.95) and DET is mid (1.97); on the power play, SEA is mid (0.55) and DET is good (0.62). SEA faces John Gibson, an OK goalie, grade 40 (-1.4%); DET faces Philipp Grubauer, a Trash goalie, grade 8 (+2.4%). Other factors: injuries help SEA 2.3%. SEA 3.00: 0.12 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: injuries +0.07 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.3%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.10 (its attack ranks #16 of 32, DET's defense #10); John Gibson in goal -0.04 (an OK goalie, grade 40, -1.4%); team speed -0.03 (it skates slower than DET, -0.9%); power play -0.02 (its power play ranks #24, DET's penalty kill and penalty habits #22). DET 3.21: 0.09 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: Philipp Grubauer in goal +0.07 (a Trash goalie, grade 8, +2.4%); power play +0.04 (its power play ranks #6, SEA's penalty kill and penalty habits #7); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.1%); team speed +0.02 (it skates faster than SEA, +0.6%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.07 (its attack ranks #26 of 32, SEA's defense #22). The model projects 6.22 total goals against a 6 line, with a 47% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 9 goals (SEA 6, DET 3), so it went over 6 and the call was wrong.
NYR#21 OFF / #9 DEF12.98●4U 5.56.0246%5.5 → 5.57:00 PM ET
AVOID
✓ under		I. Shesterkin ✓ Strong 942.010.76-8.2%0.52–-2.3%+1.1%
WSH#11 OFF / #19 DEF33.04●L. Thompson ✓ Strong 922.200.52-8.7%0.51–+2.3%+0.9%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
NYR1.89#27 of 322.17#27 of 322.01goals0.60#13 of 320.70#32 of 320.76goals
WSH2.25#6 of 321.99#15 of 322.20goals0.53#22 of 320.55#13 of 320.52goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?PlayerIf outPlayed?
NYRMika Zibanejad C-3.1%PlayedAlexis Lafrenière L+0.8%Played
Alexis Lafrenière L-2.4%PlayedAdam Fox D+0.7%Played
J.T. Miller C-2.1%PlayedPavel Dorofeyev R+0.4%Played
Adam Fox D-1.8%PlayedGabe Perreault R+0.4%Played
Pavel Dorofeyev R-0.9%PlayedTye Kartye L+0.4%Played
WSHAlex Ovechkin L-3.6%PlayedJakob Chychrun D+1.2%Played
Tom Wilson R-3.2%PlayedRasmus Sandin D+0.7%Didn't play
Dylan Strome C-2.6%PlayedJustin Sourdif C+0.7%Played
Jakob Chychrun D-2.6%PlayedDylan Strome C+0.5%Played
Aliaksei Protas L-1.7%PlayedRyan Leonard R+0.5%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.00 → 6.02)
  • 1:00 AM 6.00 first run
  • 3:31 AM 6.00 no change
  • 11:18 AM 6.02 +0.02Injuries / lineup: Matt Roy (WSH) out +0.03; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; WSH goalie Logan Thompson: Likely → Confirmed
  • 12:17 PM 6.02 NYR goalie Igor Shesterkin: Likely → Confirmed; Line 5.5 o-127 → 5.5 o-120
  • 1:17 PM 6.02 no change
  • 2:17 PM 6.02 Line 5.5 o-120 → 5.5 o-125
  • 2:41 PM 6.02 no change
  • 3:17 PM 6.02 Line 5.5 o-125 → 5.5 o-122
  • 4:09 PM 6.02 no change
  • 4:17 PM 6.02 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.02 Line 5.5 o-122 → 5.5 o-125
  • 6:17 PM 6.02 no change
  • 6:45 PM 6.02 WSH lineup: Tom Gulitti Oct 9 6:39 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: NYR and WSH project under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (NYR 2.98, WSH 3.04); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, NYR is mid (2.01) and WSH is great (2.20); on the power play, NYR is great (0.76) and WSH is bad (0.52). NYR faces Logan Thompson, a Strong goalie, grade 92 (-8.2%); WSH faces Igor Shesterkin, a Strong goalie, grade 94 (-8.7%). Other factors: NYR's team speed costs 2.3%; WSH's team speed adds 2.3%. NYR 2.98: 0.14 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: power play +0.18 (its power play ranks #13, WSH's penalty kill and penalty habits #32); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.1%). Holding it back: Logan Thompson in goal -0.27 (a Strong goalie, grade 92, -8.2%); team speed -0.07 (it skates slower than WSH, -2.3%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.04 (its attack ranks #27 of 32, WSH's defense #27). WSH 3.04: 0.08 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.16 (its attack ranks #6 of 32, NYR's defense #15); team speed +0.07 (it skates faster than NYR, +2.3%); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.9%). Holding it back: Igor Shesterkin in goal -0.28 (a Strong goalie, grade 94, -8.7%); power play -0.06 (its power play ranks #22, NYR's penalty kill and penalty habits #13). The model projects 6.02 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 46% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 4 goals (NYR 1, WSH 3), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.
7:00 PM ET🔨 SLAM
U 6.5 L
paper L -1.00u
PIT#5 OFF / #15 DEF23.39●
S. Murashov ✓ Trash 14
CBJ#15 OFF / #18 DEF33.22●
C. Talbot ✓ OK 22
5 goals · proj 6.62 · P(7+) 52%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
PIT2.250.71+0.1%0.51–-2.0%-0.3%
CBJ2.120.44+1.3%0.50–+1.9%+2.1%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
PIT2.34#2 of 321.96#11 of 322.25goals
CBJ2.08#12 of 322.08#19 of 322.12goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
PIT0.63#11 of 320.62#24 of 320.71goals
CBJ0.50#26 of 320.49#3 of 320.44goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPlayed?
PIT
Sidney Crosby C-3.6%Played
Bryan Rust R-2.9%Played
Rickard Rakell R-2.8%Played
Evgeni Malkin C-2.5%Played
Erik Karlsson D-1.8%Played
CBJ
Zach Werenski D-2.5%Played
Adam Fantilli C-2.2%Played
Sean Monahan C-1.5%Played
Dmitri Voronkov L-1.4%Played
Charlie Coyle C-1.3%Played
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?
PIT
Tommy Novak C+1.0%Played
Ben Kindel C+0.9%Played
Samuel Girard D+0.8%Played
Egor Chinakhov R+0.6%Played
Evgeni Malkin C+0.4%Played
CBJ
Damon Severson D+0.9%Played
Kent Johnson C+0.8%Played
Adam Fantilli C+0.8%Played
Zach Werenski D+0.6%Played
Dmitri Voronkov L+0.6%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.56 → 6.62)
  • 1:00 AM 6.56 first run
  • 3:31 AM 6.58 +0.03Injuries / lineup: Damon Severson (CBJ) out +0.03
  • 11:18 AM 6.76 +0.17CBJ goalie: Jet Greaves → Cam Talbot +0.19; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 6.5 o-108 → 6.5 o-115
  • 12:17 PM 6.62 -0.14PIT goalie: Arturs Silovs → Sergei Murashov -0.11; Injuries / lineup: Damon Severson (CBJ) back in -0.03; PIT lineup: @PensInsideScoop Oct 9 12:06 PM; CBJ lineup: Wes Minke Oct 9 12:04 PM; Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-117
  • 1:17 PM 6.62 no change
  • 2:17 PM 6.62 no change
  • 2:41 PM 6.62 no change
  • 3:17 PM 6.62 Line 6.5 o-117 → 6.5 o-118
  • 4:09 PM 6.62 Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-120
  • 4:17 PM 6.62 Line 6.5 o-120 → 6.5 o-121
  • 5:17 PM 6.62 Line 6.5 o-121 → 6.5 o-123
  • 6:17 PM 6.62 no change
  • 6:45 PM 6.62 Line 6.5 o-123 → 6.5 o-124

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

🔨 SLAM: both teams project as high-scoring (PIT 3.39, CBJ 3.22; cutoff 3.09), the line is 6.5, and both are good or better at 5-on-5, the strongest over spot the model has. At 5-on-5, PIT is great (2.25) and CBJ is good (2.12); on the power play, PIT is great (0.71) and CBJ is trash (0.44). PIT faces Cam Talbot, an OK goalie, grade 22 (+0.1%); CBJ faces Sergei Murashov, a Trash goalie, grade 14 (+1.3%). Other factors: injuries help CBJ 2.1%. PIT 3.39: 0.27 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.21 (its attack ranks #2 of 32, CBJ's defense #11); power play +0.14 (its power play ranks #11, CBJ's penalty kill and penalty habits #24). Holding it back: team speed -0.07 (it skates slower than CBJ, -2.0%); injuries -0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.3%). CBJ 3.22: 0.10 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.08 (its attack ranks #12 of 32, PIT's defense #19); injuries +0.07 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.1%); team speed +0.06 (it skates faster than PIT, +1.9%); Sergei Murashov in goal +0.04 (a Trash goalie, grade 14, +1.3%). Holding it back: power play -0.14 (its power play ranks #26, PIT's penalty kill and penalty habits #3). The model projects 6.62 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 52% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over 55% of the time at the opening line and 56.5% at the closing line in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (PIT 2, CBJ 3), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was wrong.
8:00 PM ETAVOID near miss −0.01 was PASS
U 6.5 ✓ under
ANA#8 OFF / #26 DEF53.42●
L. Dostal ✓ OK 28
WPG#19 OFF / #23 DEF13.08●
C. Stevenson ✓ OK 36
6 goals · proj 6.50 · P(7+) 50%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
ANA2.170.65-1.1%0.50–+3.1%+1.0%
WPG2.000.70-0.4%0.51–-3.2%-0.2%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
ANA2.06#13 of 322.14#23 of 322.17goals
WPG1.95#19 of 322.09#20 of 322.00goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
ANA0.64#10 of 320.56#16 of 320.65goals
WPG0.60#14 of 320.64#28 of 320.70goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPlayed?
ANA
Cutter Gauthier L-3.1%Played
Leo Carlsson C-3.0%Played
Beckett Sennecke R-3.0%Played
Mikael Granlund C-2.0%Played
Troy Terry R-1.8%Didn't play
WPG
Kyle Connor L-5.0%Played
Mark Scheifele C-4.5%Played
Gabriel Vilardi C-2.8%Played
Josh Morrissey D-1.5%Didn't play
Cole Perfetti C-1.4%Played
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?
ANA
Leo Carlsson C+0.6%Played
Beckett Sennecke R+0.6%Played
Ian Moore D+0.5%Didn't play
Cutter Gauthier L+0.5%Played
Jackson LaCombe D+0.4%Played
WPG
Cole Perfetti C+1.3%Played
Josh Morrissey D+1.1%Didn't play
Nino Niederreiter R+0.8%Didn't play
Alex Iafallo L+0.6%Played
Vladislav Namestnikov C+0.6%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.48 → 6.50)
  • 1:00 AM 6.48 first run
  • 3:31 AM 6.48 no change
  • 11:18 AM 6.47 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 6.5 o-103 → 6.5 o-102
  • 12:17 PM 6.50 +0.03WPG goalie: Stuart Skinner → Clay Stevenson +0.04; Injuries / lineup: Josh Morrissey (WPG) out -0.00; WPG lineup: Ken Wiebe Oct 9 11:52 AM
  • 1:17 PM 6.50 no change
  • 2:17 PM 6.50 no change
  • 2:41 PM 6.50 no change
  • 3:17 PM 6.50 no change
  • 4:09 PM 6.50 no change
  • 4:17 PM 6.50 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.50 no change
  • 6:17 PM 6.50 no change
  • 6:45 PM 6.50 no change
  • 7:17 PM 6.50 Line 6.5 o-102 → 6.5 o-101
  • 7:45 PM 6.50 ANA lineup: Projected Oct 9 7:42 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: WPG projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (WPG 3.08). WPG just misses the cutoff (by 0.01), and the rule needs both teams over it, so the 6.50 total isn't enough on its own. At 5-on-5, ANA is good (2.17) and WPG is mid (2.00); on the power play, ANA is great (0.65) and WPG is great (0.70). ANA faces Clay Stevenson, an OK goalie, grade 36 (-1.1%); WPG faces Lukas Dostal, an OK goalie, grade 28 (-0.4%). Other factors: ANA's team speed adds 3.1%; WPG's team speed costs 3.2%. ANA 3.42: 0.29 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.12 (its attack ranks #13 of 32, WPG's defense #23); team speed +0.10 (it skates faster than WPG, +3.1%); power play +0.08 (its power play ranks #10, WPG's penalty kill and penalty habits #16); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.0%). Holding it back: Clay Stevenson in goal -0.04 (an OK goalie, grade 36, -1.1%). WPG 3.08: 0.04 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: power play +0.12 (its power play ranks #14, ANA's penalty kill and penalty habits #28). Holding it back: team speed -0.10 (it skates slower than ANA, -3.2%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.04 (its attack ranks #19 of 32, ANA's defense #20); Lukas Dostal in goal -0.01 (an OK goalie, grade 28, -0.4%). The model projects 6.50 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 50% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 6 goals (ANA 5, WPG 1), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.
7:00 PM ETAVOID
O 6 ✗ went over
SEA#28 OFF / #20 DEF63.00●
P. Grubauer ✓ Trash 8
DET#13 OFF / #13 DEF33.21●
J. Gibson ✓ OK 40
9 goals · proj 6.22 · P(7+) 47%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
SEA1.950.55-1.4%0.51–-0.9%+2.3%
DET1.970.62+2.4%0.50–+0.6%+1.1%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
SEA2.02#16 of 321.96#10 of 321.95goals
DET1.90#26 of 322.11#22 of 321.97goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
SEA0.52#24 of 320.59#22 of 320.55goals
DET0.65#6 of 320.52#7 of 320.62goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPlayed?
SEA
Jordan Eberle R-2.0%Played
Jared McCann L-1.7%Played
Bobby McMann C-1.5%Played
Matty Beniers C-1.1%Played
Shane Wright C-0.9%Played
DET
Alex DeBrincat R-5.1%Played
Lucas Raymond L-3.7%Played
Dylan Larkin C-3.1%Played
Moritz Seider D-1.1%Played
Viktor Arvidsson L-0.5%Played
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?
SEA
Jordan Eberle R+0.9%Played
Shane Wright C+0.8%Played
Matty Beniers C+0.7%Played
Ryker Evans D+0.7%Played
Brandon Montour D+0.6%Played
DET
Moritz Seider D+1.3%Played
Alex DeBrincat R+1.2%Played
Lucas Raymond L+1.2%Played
Emmitt Finnie C+0.7%Played
Axel Sandin-Pellikka D+0.6%Didn't play

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.23 → 6.22)
  • 1:00 AM 6.23 first run
  • 3:31 AM 6.12 -0.11SEA goalie: Philipp Grubauer → Joey Daccord -0.11
  • 11:18 AM 6.10 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 6 o-115 → 6 o-113
  • 12:17 PM 6.10 no change
  • 1:17 PM 6.10 no change
  • 2:17 PM 6.10 no change
  • 2:41 PM 6.10 no change
  • 3:17 PM 6.10 no change
  • 4:09 PM 6.10 Line 6 o-113 → 6 o-111
  • 4:17 PM 6.10 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.10 SEA lineup: Geoff Baker Oct 9 4:29 PM; Line 6 o-111 → 6 o-110
  • 6:17 PM 6.22 +0.11SEA goalie: Joey Daccord → Philipp Grubauer +0.11
  • 6:45 PM 6.22 SEA goalie Philipp Grubauer: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6 o-110 → 6 o-111

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: SEA projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (SEA 3.00). SEA just misses the cutoff (by 0.09), and the rule needs both teams over it, so the 6.22 total isn't enough on its own. At 5-on-5, SEA is mid (1.95) and DET is mid (1.97); on the power play, SEA is mid (0.55) and DET is good (0.62). SEA faces John Gibson, an OK goalie, grade 40 (-1.4%); DET faces Philipp Grubauer, a Trash goalie, grade 8 (+2.4%). Other factors: injuries help SEA 2.3%. SEA 3.00: 0.12 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: injuries +0.07 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.3%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.10 (its attack ranks #16 of 32, DET's defense #10); John Gibson in goal -0.04 (an OK goalie, grade 40, -1.4%); team speed -0.03 (it skates slower than DET, -0.9%); power play -0.02 (its power play ranks #24, DET's penalty kill and penalty habits #22). DET 3.21: 0.09 goals above what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: Philipp Grubauer in goal +0.07 (a Trash goalie, grade 8, +2.4%); power play +0.04 (its power play ranks #6, SEA's penalty kill and penalty habits #7); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.1%); team speed +0.02 (it skates faster than SEA, +0.6%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.07 (its attack ranks #26 of 32, SEA's defense #22). The model projects 6.22 total goals against a 6 line, with a 47% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 9 goals (SEA 6, DET 3), so it went over 6 and the call was wrong.
7:00 PM ETAVOID
U 5.5 ✓ under
NYR#21 OFF / #9 DEF12.98●
I. Shesterkin ✓ Strong 94
WSH#11 OFF / #19 DEF33.04●
L. Thompson ✓ Strong 92
4 goals · proj 6.02 · P(7+) 46%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
NYR2.010.76-8.2%0.52–-2.3%+1.1%
WSH2.200.52-8.7%0.51–+2.3%+0.9%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
NYR1.89#27 of 322.17#27 of 322.01goals
WSH2.25#6 of 321.99#15 of 322.20goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
NYR0.60#13 of 320.70#32 of 320.76goals
WSH0.53#22 of 320.55#13 of 320.52goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPlayed?
NYR
Mika Zibanejad C-3.1%Played
Alexis Lafrenière L-2.4%Played
J.T. Miller C-2.1%Played
Adam Fox D-1.8%Played
Pavel Dorofeyev R-0.9%Played
WSH
Alex Ovechkin L-3.6%Played
Tom Wilson R-3.2%Played
Dylan Strome C-2.6%Played
Jakob Chychrun D-2.6%Played
Aliaksei Protas L-1.7%Played
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?
NYR
Alexis Lafrenière L+0.8%Played
Adam Fox D+0.7%Played
Pavel Dorofeyev R+0.4%Played
Gabe Perreault R+0.4%Played
Tye Kartye L+0.4%Played
WSH
Jakob Chychrun D+1.2%Played
Rasmus Sandin D+0.7%Didn't play
Justin Sourdif C+0.7%Played
Dylan Strome C+0.5%Played
Ryan Leonard R+0.5%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.00 → 6.02)
  • 1:00 AM 6.00 first run
  • 3:31 AM 6.00 no change
  • 11:18 AM 6.02 +0.02Injuries / lineup: Matt Roy (WSH) out +0.03; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; WSH goalie Logan Thompson: Likely → Confirmed
  • 12:17 PM 6.02 NYR goalie Igor Shesterkin: Likely → Confirmed; Line 5.5 o-127 → 5.5 o-120
  • 1:17 PM 6.02 no change
  • 2:17 PM 6.02 Line 5.5 o-120 → 5.5 o-125
  • 2:41 PM 6.02 no change
  • 3:17 PM 6.02 Line 5.5 o-125 → 5.5 o-122
  • 4:09 PM 6.02 no change
  • 4:17 PM 6.02 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.02 Line 5.5 o-122 → 5.5 o-125
  • 6:17 PM 6.02 no change
  • 6:45 PM 6.02 WSH lineup: Tom Gulitti Oct 9 6:39 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: NYR and WSH project under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (NYR 2.98, WSH 3.04); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, NYR is mid (2.01) and WSH is great (2.20); on the power play, NYR is great (0.76) and WSH is bad (0.52). NYR faces Logan Thompson, a Strong goalie, grade 92 (-8.2%); WSH faces Igor Shesterkin, a Strong goalie, grade 94 (-8.7%). Other factors: NYR's team speed costs 2.3%; WSH's team speed adds 2.3%. NYR 2.98: 0.14 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: power play +0.18 (its power play ranks #13, WSH's penalty kill and penalty habits #32); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.1%). Holding it back: Logan Thompson in goal -0.27 (a Strong goalie, grade 92, -8.2%); team speed -0.07 (it skates slower than WSH, -2.3%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.04 (its attack ranks #27 of 32, WSH's defense #27). WSH 3.04: 0.08 goals below what an average team would score (3.12). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.16 (its attack ranks #6 of 32, NYR's defense #15); team speed +0.07 (it skates faster than NYR, +2.3%); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.9%). Holding it back: Igor Shesterkin in goal -0.28 (a Strong goalie, grade 94, -8.7%); power play -0.06 (its power play ranks #22, NYR's penalty kill and penalty habits #13). The model projects 6.02 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 46% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 4 goals (NYR 1, WSH 3), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.

Two rows per game (away, then home). ● = team projected high-scoring. Proj = (5v5 + PP + Oth) × goalie (Gl) × back-to-back (B2B) × team speed (Spd) × injuries (Inj). Hover or tap any underlined label for an explanation.