NHL Total Model · 2026-10-18

Team

5-on-5

Power play

OFF

OPP DEF

Proj

OFF

OPP DEF

Proj

CBJ

2.10#13 of 32

1.98#12 of 32

2.04goals

0.46#29 of 32

0.57#19 of 32

0.48goals

MIN

2.02#16 of 32

2.03#16 of 32

2.02goals

0.63#9 of 32

0.63#26 of 32

0.72goals

Team

Top 5 attackers

Top 5 defenders

Player

If out

Pre-game

Player

If out

Pre-game

CBJ

Zach Werenski D

-2.7%

Plays

Kent Johnson C

+1.1%

Plays

Adam Fantilli C

-2.3%

Plays

Adam Fantilli C

+0.9%

Plays

Sean Monahan C

-1.5%

Plays

Zach Werenski D

+0.6%

Plays

Charlie Coyle C

-1.4%

Plays

Denton Mateychuk D

+0.5%

Plays

Kent Johnson C

-1.3%

Plays

Danton Heinen L

+0.5%

Plays

MIN

Kirill Kaprizov L

-5.7%

Plays

Quinn Hughes D

+1.9%

Plays

Matt Boldy L

-4.7%

Plays

Kirill Kaprizov L

+1.6%

Plays

Quinn Hughes D

-2.6%

Plays

Matt Boldy L

+1.0%

Plays

Joel Eriksson Ek C

-2.5%

Plays

Bobby Brink R

+1.0%

Plays

Ryan Hartman R

-0.8%

Plays

Jared Spurgeon D

+1.0%

OUT · IR

Team

5-on-5

Power play

OFF

OPP DEF

Proj

OFF

OPP DEF

Proj

CAR

2.34#2 of 32

2.18#28 of 32

2.51goals

0.69#4 of 32

0.57#16 of 32

0.71goals

CGY

1.86#26 of 32

1.93#8 of 32

1.76goals

0.39#32 of 32

0.48#3 of 32

0.34goals

Team

Top 5 attackers

Top 5 defenders

Player

If out

Pre-game

Player

If out

Pre-game

CAR

Sebastian Aho C

-4.5%

Plays

Jackson Blake R

+1.8%

Plays

Andrei Svechnikov R

-4.1%

Plays

Shayne Gostisbehere D

+1.5%

Plays

Nikolaj Ehlers L

-3.2%

Plays

Nikolaj Ehlers L

+1.4%

Plays

Jackson Blake R

-2.5%

Plays

Sean Walker D

+1.4%

Plays

Seth Jarvis C

-2.3%

OUT · IR

Logan Stankoven C

+1.4%

Plays

CGY

Matt Coronato R

-1.5%

Plays

Morgan Frost C

+0.8%

Plays

Morgan Frost C

-1.2%

Plays

Joel Hanley D

+0.4%

OUT · scratch

Jonathan Huberdeau L

-0.6%

OUT · IR

Matt Coronato R

+0.4%

Plays

Ryan Strome C

-0.4%

Plays

Adam Klapka R

+0.4%

Plays

Mikael Backlund C

-0.4%

Plays

Yegor Sharangovich C

+0.3%

Plays

6:00 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

CBJ#15 OFF / #23 DEF12.80●

C. Talbot ✓ Trash 18

MIN#4 OFF / #9 DEF23.45●

J. Wallstedt ✓ Mid 58

3 goals · proj 6.25 · P(7+) 46%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
CBJ	2.04	0.48	-2.8%	0.50	-8.0%	+1.5%	+2.1%
MIN	2.02	0.72	+0.6%	0.48	+6.5%	-1.4%	+1.4%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CBJ	2.10#13 of 32	1.98#12 of 32	2.04goals
MIN	2.02#16 of 32	2.03#16 of 32	2.02goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CBJ	0.46#29 of 32	0.57#19 of 32	0.48goals
MIN	0.63#9 of 32	0.63#26 of 32	0.72goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
CBJ
Zach Werenski D	-2.7%	Plays
Adam Fantilli C	-2.3%	Plays
Sean Monahan C	-1.5%	Plays
Charlie Coyle C	-1.4%	Plays
Kent Johnson C	-1.3%	Plays
MIN
Kirill Kaprizov L	-5.7%	Plays
Matt Boldy L	-4.7%	Plays
Quinn Hughes D	-2.6%	Plays
Joel Eriksson Ek C	-2.5%	Plays
Ryan Hartman R	-0.8%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
CBJ
Kent Johnson C	+1.1%	Plays
Adam Fantilli C	+0.9%	Plays
Zach Werenski D	+0.6%	Plays
Denton Mateychuk D	+0.5%	Plays
Danton Heinen L	+0.5%	Plays
MIN
Quinn Hughes D	+1.9%	Plays
Kirill Kaprizov L	+1.6%	Plays
Matt Boldy L	+1.0%	Plays
Bobby Brink R	+1.0%	Plays
Jared Spurgeon D	+1.0%	OUT · IR

Also out: CBJ: Dmitri Voronkov (scratch) -1.2% attack, +0.4% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.08 → 6.25)

12:02 AM 6.08 first run
2:02 AM 6.26 +0.18CBJ goalie: Jet Greaves → Cam Talbot +0.20; Injuries / lineup: Isac Lundestrom (CBJ) back in -0.02
4:31 AM 6.28 +0.02Injuries / lineup: Isac Lundestrom (CBJ) out +0.02
11:18 AM 6.25 -0.03Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.03
12:17 PM 6.25 CBJ lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-17); Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o+101
1:17 PM 6.25 no change
2:11 PM 6.25 no change
2:17 PM 6.25 no change
3:17 PM 6.25 Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o+100
4:17 PM 6.25 no change
4:53 PM 6.25 no change
5:17 PM 6.25 no change
5:45 PM 6.25 CBJ lineup: Projected Oct 18 5:39 PM; MIN lineup: Dylan Loucks Oct 18 5:36 PM; Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o+101

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: CBJ projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (CBJ 2.80). The 6.25 total looks high, but most of it comes from MIN; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, CBJ is mid (2.04) and MIN is mid (2.02); on the power play, CBJ is bad (0.48) and MIN is great (0.72). CBJ faces Jesper Wallstedt, a Mid goalie, grade 58 (-2.8%); MIN faces Cam Talbot, a Trash goalie, grade 18 (+0.6%). Other factors: CBJ played yesterday (-8%); injuries help CBJ 2.1%; MIN's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%). CBJ 2.80: 0.31 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: injuries +0.06 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.1%); team speed +0.04 (it skates faster than MIN, +1.5%). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.23 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); power play -0.10 (its power play ranks #29, MIN's penalty kill and penalty habits #19); Jesper Wallstedt in goal -0.08 (a Mid goalie, grade 58, -2.8%). MIN 3.45: 0.34 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.21 (CBJ played yesterday, +6.5%); power play +0.14 (its power play ranks #9, CBJ's penalty kill and penalty habits #26); injuries +0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.4%); Cam Talbot in goal +0.02 (a Trash goalie, grade 18, +0.6%). Holding it back: team speed -0.05 (it skates slower than CBJ, -1.4%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.02 (its attack ranks #16 of 32, CBJ's defense #16). The model projects 6.25 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 46% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 3 goals (CBJ 1, MIN 2), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

8:00 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

CAR#1 OFF / #1 DEF23.30●

B. Bussi ✓ OK 23

CGY#29 OFF / #29 DEF32.73●

D. Cooley ✓ Mid 48

5 goals · proj 6.03 · P(7+) 44%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
CAR	2.51	0.71	-2.0%	0.50	-8.0%	+3.2%	-4.8%
CGY	1.76	0.34	+0.1%	0.49	+6.5%	-3.7%	+2.8%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CAR	2.34#2 of 32	2.18#28 of 32	2.51goals
CGY	1.86#26 of 32	1.93#8 of 32	1.76goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CAR	0.69#4 of 32	0.57#16 of 32	0.71goals
CGY	0.39#32 of 32	0.48#3 of 32	0.34goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
CAR
Sebastian Aho C	-4.5%	Plays
Andrei Svechnikov R	-4.1%	Plays
Nikolaj Ehlers L	-3.2%	Plays
Jackson Blake R	-2.5%	Plays
Seth Jarvis C	-2.3%	OUT · IR
CGY
Matt Coronato R	-1.5%	Plays
Morgan Frost C	-1.2%	Plays
Jonathan Huberdeau L	-0.6%	OUT · IR
Ryan Strome C	-0.4%	Plays
Mikael Backlund C	-0.4%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
CAR
Jackson Blake R	+1.8%	Plays
Shayne Gostisbehere D	+1.5%	Plays
Nikolaj Ehlers L	+1.4%	Plays
Sean Walker D	+1.4%	Plays
Logan Stankoven C	+1.4%	Plays
CGY
Morgan Frost C	+0.8%	Plays
Joel Hanley D	+0.4%	OUT · scratch
Matt Coronato R	+0.4%	Plays
Adam Klapka R	+0.4%	Plays
Yegor Sharangovich C	+0.3%	Plays

Also out: CAR: Taylor Hall -1.4% attack, +0.8% defense; Mark Jankowski -0.8% attack, +0.9% defense; Jordan Staal -0.7% attack, +0.4% defense

How the projection moved on game day (6.12 → 6.03)

12:02 AM 6.12 first run
2:02 AM 6.17 +0.05CAR goalie: Pyotr Kochetkov → Brandon Bussi +0.06; CGY goalie Dustin Wolf: Projected → Likely
4:31 AM 6.17 no change
11:18 AM 6.15 -0.02Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.02; CAR goalie Brandon Bussi: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o+107 → 6.5 o+109
12:17 PM 6.15 CAR lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-17)
1:17 PM 6.03 -0.12CGY goalie: Dustin Wolf → Devin Cooley -0.12; Line 6.5 o+109 → 6.5 o+107
2:11 PM 6.03 CAR lineup: Ryan Henkel Oct 18 1:27 PM; CGY lineup: Pat Steinberg Oct 18 1:25 PM
2:17 PM 6.03 no change
3:17 PM 6.03 no change
4:17 PM 6.03 Line 6.5 o+107 → 6.5 o+106
4:53 PM 6.03 no change
5:17 PM 6.03 Line 6.5 o+106 → 6.5 o+105
5:45 PM 6.03 no change
6:17 PM 6.03 Line 6.5 o+105 → 6.5 o+107
7:17 PM 6.03 no change
7:21 PM 6.03 Line 6.5 o+107 → 6.5 o+104
7:45 PM 6.03 Injuries / lineup: Mark Jankowski (CAR) out -0.00

AVOID: CGY projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (CGY 2.73). The 6.03 total looks high, but most of it comes from CAR; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, CAR is great (2.51) and CGY is trash (1.76); on the power play, CAR is great (0.71) and CGY is trash (0.34). CAR faces Devin Cooley, a Mid goalie, grade 48 (-2.0%); CGY faces Brandon Bussi, an OK goalie, grade 23 (+0.1%). Other factors: CAR played yesterday (-8%); CAR's team speed adds 3.2%; injuries cost CAR 4.8%; CGY's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); CGY's team speed costs 3.7%; injuries help CGY 2.8%. CAR 3.30: 0.19 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.47 (its attack ranks #2 of 32, CGY's defense #28); power play +0.14 (its power play ranks #4, CGY's penalty kill and penalty habits #16); team speed +0.11 (it skates faster than CGY, +3.2%). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.29 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); injuries -0.16 (missing players on both teams, net, -4.8%); Devin Cooley in goal -0.08 (a Mid goalie, grade 48, -2.0%). CGY 2.73: 0.38 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.17 (CAR played yesterday, +6.5%); injuries +0.07 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.8%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.28 (its attack ranks #26 of 32, CAR's defense #8); power play -0.24 (its power play ranks #32, CAR's penalty kill and penalty habits #3); team speed -0.10 (it skates slower than CAR, -3.7%). The model projects 6.03 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 44% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (CAR 2, CGY 3), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.