NHL Total Model · 2026-10-13

9:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

TOR#22 OFF / #31 DEF42.90●

A. Stolarz ✓ Good 76

UTA#3 OFF / #6 DEF53.88●

K. Vejmelka ✓ Mid 47

9 goals · proj 6.79 · P(7+) 50%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
TOR	1.95	0.58	-2.0%	0.49	–	-3.1%	+1.3%
UTA	2.49	0.98	-4.7%	0.49	–	+3.4%	-0.5%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
TOR	1.98#16 of 32	2.00#15 of 32	1.95goals
UTA	2.25#6 of 32	2.25#30 of 32	2.49goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
TOR	0.57#17 of 32	0.56#15 of 32	0.58goals
UTA	0.77#1 of 32	0.71#30 of 32	0.98goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
TOR
William Nylander R	-4.5%	Plays
Auston Matthews C	-3.9%	Plays
John Tavares C	-3.4%	Plays
Kirill Marchenko R	-1.0%	Plays
Darren Raddysh D	-0.8%	Plays
UTA
Dylan Guenther R	-4.0%	Plays
Clayton Keller R	-3.8%	Plays
Nick Schmaltz C	-3.6%	Plays
Logan Cooley C	-2.4%	Plays
Mikhail Sergachev D	-1.4%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
TOR
Darren Raddysh D	+0.4%	Plays
Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	+0.3%	Plays
Jack Roslovic C	+0.3%	Plays
Kirill Marchenko R	+0.3%	Plays
Nick Paul L	+0.2%	Plays
UTA
Clayton Keller R	+1.6%	Plays
Nate Schmidt D	+1.4%	Plays
Nick Schmaltz C	+1.0%	Plays
Barrett Hayton C	+1.0%	Plays
Michael Carcone L	+0.9%	OUT

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.79 → 6.79)

12:23 AM 6.79 first run
7:22 AM 6.89 +0.11TOR goalie: Anthony Stolarz → Sergei Bobrovsky +0.11; Line 6.5 o-110 → 6.5 o-113
11:17 AM 6.89 Line 6.5 o-113 → 6.5 o-115
12:18 PM 6.89 no change
1:17 PM 6.78 -0.11TOR goalie: Sergei Bobrovsky → Anthony Stolarz -0.11; TOR lineup: David Alter Oct 13 1:10 PM
2:18 PM 6.78 UTA goalie Karel Vejmelka: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-118
3:17 PM 6.78 no change
4:05 PM 6.78 no change
4:17 PM 6.78 no change
4:44 PM 6.79 +0.01Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated +0.01
5:20 PM 6.79 no change
5:35 PM 6.79 no change
5:46 PM 6.79 no change
6:01 PM 6.79 no change
6:18 PM 6.79 no change
6:31 PM 6.79 no change
6:45 PM 6.79 no change
7:01 PM 6.79 no change
7:17 PM 6.79 no change
7:31 PM 6.79 no change
7:46 PM 6.79 no change
8:17 PM 6.79 no change
8:22 PM 6.79 no change
8:31 PM 6.79 no change
8:46 PM 6.79 TOR lineup: David Alter Oct 13 8:40 PM; UTA lineup: Utah Mammoth Oct 13 8:41 PM
8:49 PM 6.79 no change

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: TOR projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (TOR 2.90). The 6.79 total looks high, but most of it comes from UTA; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, TOR is mid (1.95) and UTA is great (2.49); on the power play, TOR is mid (0.58) and UTA is great (0.98). TOR faces Karel Vejmelka, a Mid goalie, grade 47 (-2.0%); UTA faces Anthony Stolarz, a Good goalie, grade 76 (-4.7%). Other factors: TOR's team speed costs 3.1%; UTA's team speed adds 3.4%. TOR 2.90: 0.20 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: injuries +0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.3%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.09 (its attack ranks #16 of 32, UTA's defense #15); team speed -0.09 (it skates slower than UTA, -3.1%); Karel Vejmelka in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 47, -2.0%). UTA 3.88: 0.78 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.45 (its attack ranks #6 of 32, TOR's defense #30); power play +0.41 (its power play ranks #1, TOR's penalty kill and penalty habits #30); team speed +0.13 (it skates faster than TOR, +3.4%). Holding it back: Anthony Stolarz in goal -0.18 (a Good goalie, grade 76, -4.7%); injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.5%). The model projects 6.79 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 50% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 9 goals (TOR 4, UTA 5), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

6:45 PM ET🔨 SLAM

U 6.5 L
paper L -1.00u

WSH#10 OFF / #22 DEF23.09●

L. Thompson ✓ Strong 92

CAR#1 OFF / #1 DEF43.44●

P. Kochetkov ✓ Mid 45

6 goals · proj 6.53 · P(7+) 50%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
WSH	2.12	0.43	-1.8%	0.49	–	+1.3%	+2.3%
CAR	2.54	0.85	-8.1%	0.50	–	-1.0%	-2.6%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
WSH	2.28#3 of 32	1.90#7 of 32	2.12goals
CAR	2.38#2 of 32	2.18#26 of 32	2.54goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
WSH	0.49#27 of 32	0.48#2 of 32	0.43goals
CAR	0.67#6 of 32	0.69#29 of 32	0.85goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
WSH
Alex Ovechkin L	-3.6%	Plays
Tom Wilson R	-3.3%	Plays
Dylan Strome C	-2.6%	Plays
Jakob Chychrun D	-2.6%	Plays
Aliaksei Protas L	-1.7%	Plays
CAR
Sebastian Aho C	-4.4%	Plays
Andrei Svechnikov R	-3.8%	Plays
Nikolaj Ehlers L	-3.1%	Plays
Jackson Blake R	-2.5%	Plays
Seth Jarvis C	-2.5%	OUT · IR

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
WSH
Jakob Chychrun D	+1.2%	Plays
Justin Sourdif C	+0.7%	Plays
Rasmus Sandin D	+0.6%	OUT · IR
Dylan Strome C	+0.5%	Plays
Ryan Leonard R	+0.5%	Plays
CAR
Jackson Blake R	+1.8%	Plays
Shayne Gostisbehere D	+1.5%	Plays
Nikolaj Ehlers L	+1.4%	Plays
Sean Walker D	+1.4%	Plays
Logan Stankoven C	+1.4%	Plays

Also out: WSH: Pierre-Luc Dubois -1.0% attack, +0.4% defense · CAR: Jordan Staal -0.8% attack, +0.4% defense; Alexander Nikishin -0.4% attack, +0.7% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.89 → 6.53)

12:23 AM 6.89 first run
7:22 AM 6.59 -0.29WSH goalie: Charlie Lindgren → Logan Thompson -0.29; Line 6.5 o+103 → 6.5 o+105
11:17 AM 6.54 -0.06CAR goalie: Brandon Bussi → Pyotr Kochetkov -0.06; CAR lineup: Walt Ruff Oct 13 10:33 AM; Line 6.5 o+105 → 6.5 o+104
12:18 PM 6.54 WSH lineup: John Walton Oct 13 12:18 PM
1:17 PM 6.54 WSH goalie Logan Thompson: Likely → Confirmed
2:18 PM 6.54 no change
3:17 PM 6.54 no change
4:05 PM 6.54 Line 6.5 o+104 → 6.5 o+105
4:17 PM 6.54 no change
4:44 PM 6.53 no change
4:46 PM 6.53 no change
5:20 PM 6.53 no change
5:35 PM 6.53 no change
5:46 PM 6.53 no change
6:01 PM 6.53 no change
6:18 PM 6.53 Line 6.5 o+105 → 6.5 o-106
6:31 PM 6.53 CAR lineup: Ryan Henkel Oct 13 6:22 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

🔨 SLAM: both teams project as high-scoring (WSH 3.09, CAR 3.44; cutoff 3.09), the line is 6.5, and both are good or better at 5-on-5, the strongest over spot the model has. At 5-on-5, WSH is good (2.12) and CAR is great (2.54); on the power play, WSH is trash (0.43) and CAR is great (0.85). WSH faces Pyotr Kochetkov, a Mid goalie, grade 45 (-1.8%); CAR faces Logan Thompson, a Strong goalie, grade 92 (-8.1%). Only CAR faces a Strong or Good goalie, so the avoid rule for two Strong / Good goalies doesn't apply. Other factors: injuries help WSH 2.3%; injuries cost CAR 2.6%. WSH 3.09: 0.01 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.09 (its attack ranks #3 of 32, CAR's defense #7); injuries +0.07 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.3%); team speed +0.04 (it skates faster than CAR, +1.3%). Holding it back: power play -0.15 (its power play ranks #27, CAR's penalty kill and penalty habits #2); Pyotr Kochetkov in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 45, -1.8%). CAR 3.44: 0.34 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.50 (its attack ranks #2 of 32, WSH's defense #26); power play +0.27 (its power play ranks #6, WSH's penalty kill and penalty habits #29). Holding it back: Logan Thompson in goal -0.31 (a Strong goalie, grade 92, -8.1%); injuries -0.09 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.6%); team speed -0.04 (it skates slower than WSH, -1.0%). The model projects 6.53 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 50% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over 55% of the time at the opening line and 56.5% at the closing line in 2021-26. Final: 6 goals (WSH 2, CAR 4), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was wrong.

8:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

PIT#9 OFF / #18 DEF33.63●

S. Murashov ✓ OK 27

CHI#31 OFF / #30 DEF52.71●

S. Knight ✓ Mid 51

8 goals · proj 6.33 · P(7+) 46%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
PIT	2.67	0.54	-2.3%	0.49	–	-0.5%	+0.6%
CHI	1.81	0.41	-0.3%	0.49	–	+0.2%	+0.2%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
PIT	2.28#4 of 32	2.39#32 of 32	2.67goals
CHI	1.76#31 of 32	2.09#21 of 32	1.81goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
PIT	0.59#13 of 32	0.51#6 of 32	0.54goals
CHI	0.42#30 of 32	0.54#10 of 32	0.41goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
PIT
Sidney Crosby C	-3.7%	Plays
Bryan Rust R	-3.0%	Plays
Rickard Rakell R	-2.8%	Plays
Evgeni Malkin C	-2.6%	Plays
Erik Karlsson D	-1.8%	Plays
CHI
Tyler Bertuzzi L	-2.3%	Plays
Connor Bedard C	-1.7%	Plays
Patrick Kane R	-0.8%	Plays
Frank Nazar C	-0.7%	OUT
Ryan Donato C	-0.6%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
PIT
Tommy Novak C	+1.0%	Plays
Ben Kindel C	+0.9%	Plays
Samuel Girard D	+0.9%	Plays
Egor Chinakhov R	+0.6%	Plays
Kaedan Korczak D	+0.5%	Plays
CHI
Tyler Bertuzzi L	+0.4%	Plays
Andrew Mangiapane L	+0.4%	OUT · IR
Oliver Moore C	+0.3%	Plays
Ryan Donato C	+0.2%	Plays
Sam Rinzel D	+0.2%	Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.28 → 6.33)

12:23 AM 6.28 first run
7:22 AM 6.28 no change
11:17 AM 6.28 no change
12:18 PM 6.32 +0.05Injuries / lineup: Connor Bedard (CHI) back in +0.05; CHI goalie Spencer Knight: Likely → Confirmed; Connor Bedard (CHI) day-to-day
1:17 PM 6.32 PIT goalie Sergei Murashov: Likely → Confirmed
2:18 PM 6.32 Connor Bedard (CHI) off day-to-day; CHI lineup: Ben Pope Oct 13 2:08 PM
3:17 PM 6.32 no change
4:05 PM 6.32 no change
4:17 PM 6.32 no change
4:44 PM 6.33 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Trevor van Riemsdyk (PIT) out +0.01
5:20 PM 6.33 no change
5:35 PM 6.33 no change
5:46 PM 6.33 no change
6:01 PM 6.33 Line 6.5 o-105 → 6.5 o-108
6:18 PM 6.33 no change
6:31 PM 6.33 no change
6:45 PM 6.33 no change
7:01 PM 6.33 Line 6.5 o-108 → 6.5 o-110
7:17 PM 6.33 Line 6.5 o-110 → 6.5 o-114
7:31 PM 6.33 no change
7:46 PM 6.33 PIT lineup: @penguins Oct 13 7:37 PM; CHI lineup: Kalen Lumpkins Oct 13 7:39 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: CHI projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (CHI 2.71). The 6.33 total looks high, but most of it comes from PIT; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, PIT is great (2.67) and CHI is trash (1.81); on the power play, PIT is mid (0.54) and CHI is trash (0.41). PIT faces Spencer Knight, a Mid goalie, grade 51 (-2.3%); CHI faces Sergei Murashov, an OK goalie, grade 27 (-0.3%). PIT 3.63: 0.52 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.63 (its attack ranks #4 of 32, CHI's defense #32); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.6%). Holding it back: Spencer Knight in goal -0.08 (a Mid goalie, grade 51, -2.3%); power play -0.03 (its power play ranks #13, CHI's penalty kill and penalty habits #6); team speed -0.02 (it skates slower than CHI, -0.5%). CHI 2.71: 0.40 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.23 (its attack ranks #31 of 32, PIT's defense #21); power play -0.16 (its power play ranks #30, PIT's penalty kill and penalty habits #10). The model projects 6.33 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 46% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 8 goals (PIT 3, CHI 5), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

7:45 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

VAN#29 OFF / #32 DEF22.73●

L. Meriläinen ✓ Trash 7

NYI#20 OFF / #20 DEF33.56●

I. Sorokin ✓ Strong 91

5 goals · proj 6.29 · P(7+) 45%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
VAN	1.90	0.64	-7.9%	0.50	–	-3.4%	+0.9%
NYI	2.20	0.72	+2.8%	0.48	–	+3.5%	-1.7%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
VAN	1.83#27 of 32	2.11#22 of 32	1.90goals
NYI	1.94#20 of 32	2.31#31 of 32	2.20goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
VAN	0.54#20 of 32	0.65#27 of 32	0.64goals
NYI	0.56#19 of 32	0.71#30 of 32	0.72goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
VAN
Jake DeBrusk L	-1.8%	Plays
Brock Boeser R	-1.7%	Plays
Elias Pettersson C	-1.7%	Plays
Marco Rossi C	-1.3%	Plays
Linus Karlsson C	-1.0%	Plays
NYI
Bo Horvat C	-2.7%	Plays
Matthew Schaefer D	-2.1%	Plays
Mathew Barzal C	-2.0%	OUT · IR
Brayden Schenn C	-1.0%	Plays
Calum Ritchie C	-0.7%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
VAN
Linus Karlsson C	+0.8%	Plays
Jake DeBrusk L	+0.6%	Plays
Elias Pettersson C	+0.5%	Plays
Marco Rossi C	+0.5%	Plays
Zeev Buium D	+0.4%	Plays
NYI
Matthew Schaefer D	+0.9%	Plays
Mathew Barzal C	+0.8%	OUT · IR
Emil Heineman L	+0.7%	Plays
Ondrej Palat L	+0.5%	Plays
Brayden Schenn C	+0.5%	Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.29 → 6.29)

12:23 AM 6.29 first run
7:22 AM 6.29 VAN goalie: Leevi Meriläinen → Leevi Merilainen +0.00; Line 6.5 o-106 → 6.5 o-105
11:17 AM 6.29 NYI goalie Ilya Sorokin: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-105 → 6 o-110
12:18 PM 6.29 VAN goalie Leevi Merilainen: Likely → Confirmed; VAN lineup: Thomas Drance Oct 13 11:46 AM; NYI lineup: Stefen Rosner Oct 13 11:47 AM; Line 6 o-110 → 6.5 o+101
1:17 PM 6.29 Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o-100
2:18 PM 6.29 no change
3:17 PM 6.29 no change
4:05 PM 6.29 Line 6.5 o-100 → 6 o-115
4:17 PM 6.29 no change
4:44 PM 6.29 no change
4:46 PM 6.29 no change
5:20 PM 6.29 no change
5:35 PM 6.29 no change
5:46 PM 6.29 no change
6:01 PM 6.29 no change
6:18 PM 6.29 no change
6:31 PM 6.29 no change
6:45 PM 6.29 Line 6 o-115 → 6.5 o-100
7:01 PM 6.29 Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o+102
7:17 PM 6.29 no change
7:31 PM 6.29 VAN lineup: Thomas Drance Oct 13 7:25 PM; NYI lineup: Stefen Rosner Oct 13 7:26 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: VAN projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (VAN 2.73). The 6.29 total looks high, but most of it comes from NYI; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, VAN is bad (1.90) and NYI is great (2.20); on the power play, VAN is good (0.64) and NYI is great (0.72). VAN faces Ilya Sorokin, a Strong goalie, grade 91 (-7.9%); NYI faces Leevi Merilainen, a Trash goalie, grade 7 (+2.8%). Other factors: VAN's team speed costs 3.4%; NYI's team speed adds 3.5%; injuries cost NYI 1.7%. VAN 2.73: 0.37 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: power play +0.07 (its power play ranks #20, NYI's penalty kill and penalty habits #27); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.9%). Holding it back: Ilya Sorokin in goal -0.24 (a Strong goalie, grade 91, -7.9%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.14 (its attack ranks #27 of 32, NYI's defense #22); team speed -0.09 (it skates slower than NYI, -3.4%). NYI 3.56: 0.45 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.16 (its attack ranks #20 of 32, VAN's defense #31); power play +0.15 (its power play ranks #19, VAN's penalty kill and penalty habits #30); team speed +0.12 (it skates faster than VAN, +3.5%); Leevi Merilainen in goal +0.10 (a Trash goalie, grade 7, +2.8%). Holding it back: injuries -0.06 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.7%). The model projects 6.29 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (VAN 2, NYI 3), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

7:00 PM ETAVOID

U 6 ✓ under

SEA#25 OFF / #25 DEF33.46●

P. Grubauer ✓ Trash 9

PHI#32 OFF / #26 DEF22.77●

D. Vladar ✓ OK 23

5 goals · proj 6.23 · P(7+) 45%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
SEA	2.37	0.52	+0.1%	0.49	–	-1.1%	+3.3%
PHI	1.80	0.41	+2.1%	0.49	–	+0.9%	-0.2%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
SEA	2.18#8 of 32	2.22#29 of 32	2.37goals
PHI	1.67#32 of 32	2.21#28 of 32	1.80goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
SEA	0.50#26 of 32	0.58#20 of 32	0.52goals
PHI	0.46#29 of 32	0.49#4 of 32	0.41goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
SEA
Jordan Eberle R	-2.0%	Plays
Jared McCann L	-1.8%	Plays
Bobby McMann C	-1.5%	Plays
Matty Beniers C	-1.1%	Plays
Shane Wright C	-0.9%	Plays
PHI
Trevor Zegras C	-1.9%	Plays
Travis Konecny R	-1.8%	OUT · IR
Matvei Michkov R	-1.8%	Plays
Owen Tippett R	-1.6%	Plays
Tyson Foerster R	-0.8%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
SEA
Jordan Eberle R	+0.9%	Plays
Shane Wright C	+0.8%	Plays
Matty Beniers C	+0.7%	Plays
Ryker Evans D	+0.7%	Plays
Brandon Montour D	+0.6%	Plays
PHI
Jamie Drysdale D	+1.1%	Plays
Owen Tippett R	+1.0%	Plays
Noah Cates L	+0.9%	Plays
Matvei Michkov R	+0.9%	Plays
Trevor Zegras C	+0.8%	Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.19 → 6.23)

12:23 AM 6.19 first run
7:22 AM 6.17 -0.02Injuries / lineup: Cam York (PHI) back in -0.02; Cam York (PHI) day-to-day; Line 6 o-118 → 6 o-120
11:17 AM 6.19 +0.02Injuries / lineup: Cam York (PHI) out +0.02; PHI goalie Dan Vladar: Likely → Confirmed; PHI lineup: Jordan Hall Oct 13 10:41 AM; Line 6 o-120 → 6 o-122
12:18 PM 6.19 SEA lineup: @sound_hockey Oct 13 11:48 AM
1:17 PM 6.19 no change
2:18 PM 6.19 no change
3:17 PM 6.19 no change
4:05 PM 6.22 +0.03Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated +0.03; Line 6 o-122 → 5.5 o-135
4:44 PM 6.23 +0.01Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated +0.01
5:20 PM 6.23 no change
5:35 PM 6.23 no change
5:46 PM 6.23 Line 5.5 o-135 → 5.5 o-133
6:01 PM 6.23 no change
6:18 PM 6.23 no change
6:31 PM 6.23 no change
6:45 PM 6.23 SEA goalie Philipp Grubauer: Likely → Confirmed; PHI lineup: Charlie O'Connor Oct 13 6:38 PM; Line 5.5 o-133 → 6 o-118

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: PHI projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (PHI 2.77). The 6.23 total looks high, but most of it comes from SEA; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, SEA is great (2.37) and PHI is trash (1.80); on the power play, SEA is bad (0.52) and PHI is trash (0.41). SEA faces Dan Vladar, an OK goalie, grade 23 (+0.1%); PHI faces Philipp Grubauer, a Trash goalie, grade 9 (+2.1%). Other factors: injuries help SEA 3.3%. SEA 3.46: 0.36 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.34 (its attack ranks #8 of 32, PHI's defense #29); injuries +0.11 (missing players on both teams, net, +3.3%). Holding it back: power play -0.06 (its power play ranks #26, PHI's penalty kill and penalty habits #20); team speed -0.04 (it skates slower than PHI, -1.1%). PHI 2.77: 0.33 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: Philipp Grubauer in goal +0.06 (a Trash goalie, grade 9, +2.1%); team speed +0.02 (it skates faster than SEA, +0.9%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.24 (its attack ranks #32 of 32, SEA's defense #28); power play -0.17 (its power play ranks #29, SEA's penalty kill and penalty habits #4). The model projects 6.23 total goals against a 6 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 5.5 to 6, toward the over. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (SEA 3, PHI 2), so it stayed under 6 and the call was right.

8:15 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

MIN#8 OFF / #8 DEF23.02●

C. Pickard ✓ Trash 7

WPG#23 OFF / #24 DEF53.19●

S. Skinner ✓ Mid 50

7 goals · proj 6.21 · P(7+) 47%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
MIN	2.07	0.67	-2.2%	0.50	-8.0%	+1.1%	+2.1%
WPG	1.87	0.61	+2.8%	0.48	+6.5%	-1.5%	-0.1%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
MIN	1.97#18 of 32	2.15#24 of 32	2.07goals
WPG	1.92#22 of 32	1.99#14 of 32	1.87goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
MIN	0.68#5 of 32	0.55#13 of 32	0.67goals
WPG	0.58#14 of 32	0.57#19 of 32	0.61goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
MIN
Kirill Kaprizov L	-5.4%	Plays
Matt Boldy L	-4.3%	Plays
Quinn Hughes D	-2.5%	Plays
Joel Eriksson Ek C	-2.4%	Plays
Ryan Hartman R	-0.9%	Plays
WPG
Kyle Connor L	-5.0%	Plays
Mark Scheifele C	-4.5%	Plays
Gabriel Vilardi C	-2.8%	Plays
Cole Perfetti C	-1.5%	Plays
Josh Morrissey D	-1.4%	OUT

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
MIN
Quinn Hughes D	+1.8%	Plays
Kirill Kaprizov L	+1.5%	Plays
Jared Spurgeon D	+1.0%	OUT
Matt Boldy L	+1.0%	Plays
Bobby Brink R	+0.9%	Plays
WPG
Cole Perfetti C	+1.3%	Plays
Josh Morrissey D	+1.1%	OUT
Nino Niederreiter R	+0.8%	Plays
Alex Iafallo L	+0.6%	Plays
Vladislav Namestnikov C	+0.6%	Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.15 → 6.21)

12:23 AM 6.15 first run
7:22 AM 6.16 +0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.01; Injuries / lineup: Nico Sturm (MIN) back in -0.00; MIN goalie Calvin Pickard: Conflict → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o+104 → 6.5 o+105
11:17 AM 6.16 Nico Sturm (MIN) day-to-day; WPG goalie Stuart Skinner: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o+105 → 6.5 o+104
12:18 PM 6.16 WPG lineup: Ken Wiebe Oct 13 11:49 AM; Line 6.5 o+104 → 6.5 o+102
1:17 PM 6.16 Nico Sturm (MIN) off day-to-day
2:18 PM 6.16 no change
3:17 PM 6.16 Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o+103
4:05 PM 6.16 Line 6.5 o+103 → 6.5 o-110
4:17 PM 6.16 Line 6.5 o-110 → 6.5 o-106
4:44 PM 6.15 Injuries / lineup: Nico Sturm (MIN) out -0.00
5:20 PM 6.15 no change
5:35 PM 6.15 no change
5:46 PM 6.15 no change
6:01 PM 6.15 no change
6:18 PM 6.15 no change
6:31 PM 6.15 no change
6:45 PM 6.15 no change
7:01 PM 6.15 no change
7:17 PM 6.15 no change
7:31 PM 6.15 no change
7:45 PM 6.21 +0.05Injuries / lineup: Jared Spurgeon (MIN) out +0.05

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: MIN projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (MIN 3.02). MIN just misses the cutoff (by 0.08), and the rule needs both teams over it, so the 6.21 total isn't enough on its own. At 5-on-5, MIN is good (2.07) and WPG is bad (1.87); on the power play, MIN is great (0.67) and WPG is good (0.61). MIN faces Stuart Skinner, a Mid goalie, grade 50 (-2.2%); WPG faces Calvin Pickard, a Trash goalie, grade 7 (+2.8%). Other factors: MIN played yesterday (-8%); injuries help MIN 2.1%; WPG's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%). MIN 3.02: 0.09 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: power play +0.10 (its power play ranks #5, WPG's penalty kill and penalty habits #13); injuries +0.06 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.1%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.04 (its attack ranks #18 of 32, WPG's defense #24); team speed +0.03 (it skates faster than WPG, +1.1%). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.25 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); Stuart Skinner in goal -0.07 (a Mid goalie, grade 50, -2.2%). WPG 3.19: 0.09 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.20 (MIN played yesterday, +6.5%); Calvin Pickard in goal +0.08 (a Trash goalie, grade 7, +2.8%); power play +0.03 (its power play ranks #14, MIN's penalty kill and penalty habits #19). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.16 (its attack ranks #22 of 32, MIN's defense #14); team speed -0.05 (it skates slower than MIN, -1.5%). The model projects 6.21 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 47% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (MIN 2, WPG 5), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

11:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

BOS#24 OFF / #14 DEF63.50●

J. Swayman ✓ Strong 87

SJS#27 OFF / #28 DEF32.70●

Y. Askarov ✓ Trash 4

9 goals · proj 6.21 · P(7+) 45%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
BOS	2.26	0.68	+3.6%	0.49	–	-1.7%	+0.4%
SJS	1.82	0.55	-6.7%	0.50	–	+1.1%	-0.2%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
BOS	2.13#9 of 32	2.16#25 of 32	2.26goals
SJS	1.81#30 of 32	2.05#19 of 32	1.82goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
BOS	0.53#23 of 32	0.71#32 of 32	0.68goals
SJS	0.54#21 of 32	0.57#17 of 32	0.55goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
BOS
David Pastrnak R	-4.2%	Plays
Morgan Geekie C	-3.3%	Plays
Pavel Zacha C	-2.4%	Plays
Elias Lindholm C	-1.5%	Plays
Casey Mittelstadt C	-1.0%	Plays
SJS
Macklin Celebrini C	-4.4%	Plays
Will Smith C	-2.1%	Plays
Tyler Toffoli C	-2.0%	Plays
Alexander Wennberg C	-0.9%	Plays
Kiefer Sherwood L	-0.8%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
BOS
David Pastrnak R	+0.9%	Plays
Mason Lohrei D	+0.7%	Plays
Morgan Geekie C	+0.7%	Plays
Casey Mittelstadt C	+0.5%	Plays
Fraser Minten C	+0.3%	Plays
SJS
Macklin Celebrini C	+0.8%	Plays
Tyler Toffoli C	+0.7%	Plays
Dmitry Orlov D	+0.6%	Plays
Will Smith C	+0.6%	Plays
Adam Gaudette R	+0.4%	OUT · scratch

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.20 → 6.21)

12:23 AM 6.20 first run
7:22 AM 6.20 no change
11:17 AM 6.20 Line 6.5 o-107 → 6.5 o-105
12:18 PM 6.20 no change
1:17 PM 6.20 no change
2:18 PM 6.20 SJS goalie Yaroslav Askarov: Likely → Confirmed; Barclay Goodrow (SJS) day-to-day; SJS lineup: Curtis Pashelka Oct 13 2:05 PM
3:17 PM 6.20 BOS goalie Jeremy Swayman: Likely → Confirmed; Barclay Goodrow (SJS) off day-to-day
4:05 PM 6.20 no change
4:17 PM 6.20 no change
4:44 PM 6.21 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Jonathan Aspirot (BOS) out +0.01; Line 6.5 o-105 → 6.5 o-107
5:20 PM 6.21 no change
5:35 PM 6.21 no change
5:46 PM 6.21 no change
6:01 PM 6.21 no change
6:18 PM 6.21 no change
6:31 PM 6.21 no change
6:45 PM 6.21 Line 6.5 o-107 → 6.5 o+102
7:01 PM 6.21 no change
7:17 PM 6.21 Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o+103
7:31 PM 6.21 no change
7:46 PM 6.21 Line 6.5 o+103 → 6.5 o+104
8:17 PM 6.21 Line 6.5 o+104 → 6.5 o+103
8:22 PM 6.21 no change
8:31 PM 6.21 no change
8:46 PM 6.21 no change
8:49 PM 6.21 no change
9:18 PM 6.21 no change
9:31 PM 6.21 Line 6.5 o+103 → 6.5 o+104
10:18 PM 6.21 no change
10:46 PM 6.21 SJS lineup: Max Miller Oct 13 10:44 PM; Line 6.5 o+104 → 6.5 o+101

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: SJS projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (SJS 2.70). The 6.21 total looks high, but most of it comes from BOS; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, BOS is great (2.26) and SJS is trash (1.82); on the power play, BOS is great (0.68) and SJS is mid (0.55). BOS faces Yaroslav Askarov, a Trash goalie, grade 4 (+3.6%); SJS faces Jeremy Swayman, a Strong goalie, grade 87 (-6.7%). BOS 3.50: 0.40 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.22 (its attack ranks #9 of 32, SJS's defense #25); Yaroslav Askarov in goal +0.12 (a Trash goalie, grade 4, +3.6%); power play +0.11 (its power play ranks #23, SJS's penalty kill and penalty habits #32); injuries +0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.4%). Holding it back: team speed -0.06 (it skates slower than SJS, -1.7%). SJS 2.70: 0.40 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: team speed +0.03 (it skates faster than BOS, +1.1%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.22 (its attack ranks #30 of 32, BOS's defense #19); Jeremy Swayman in goal -0.19 (a Strong goalie, grade 87, -6.7%); power play -0.02 (its power play ranks #21, BOS's penalty kill and penalty habits #17). The model projects 6.21 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 9 goals (BOS 6, SJS 3), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

8:30 PM ETAVOID

U 5.5 ✓ under

COL#2 OFF / #4 DEF33.57●

M. Blackwood ✓ OK 39

DAL#20 OFF / #2 DEF22.54●

J. Oettinger ✓ Good 69

5 goals · proj 6.11 · P(7+) 43%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
COL	2.48	0.57	-3.8%	0.49	–	+7.4%	-2.4%
DAL	1.87	0.55	-1.3%	0.50	–	-7.0%	-5.2%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
COL	2.68#1 of 32	1.89#4 of 32	2.48goals
DAL	1.97#17 of 32	1.93#9 of 32	1.87goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
COL	0.58#15 of 32	0.55#12 of 32	0.57goals
DAL	0.64#9 of 32	0.48#2 of 32	0.55goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
COL
Nathan MacKinnon C	-6.6%	Plays
Martin Necas C	-5.0%	Plays
Cale Makar D	-3.3%	OUT
Brock Nelson C	-2.7%	Plays
Artturi Lehkonen L	-2.4%	Plays
DAL
Jason Robertson L	-5.0%	Plays
Wyatt Johnston C	-4.5%	OUT
Mikko Rantanen R	-3.8%	Plays
Roope Hintz C	-2.4%	Plays
Matt Duchene C	-1.6%	OUT · IR

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
COL
Martin Necas C	+1.4%	Plays
Sam Malinski D	+1.4%	Plays
Nathan MacKinnon C	+1.3%	Plays
Cale Makar D	+0.9%	OUT
Brett Kulak D	+0.8%	Plays
DAL
Jason Robertson L	+1.4%	Plays
Miro Heiskanen D	+1.2%	Plays
Mikko Rantanen R	+1.1%	Plays
Thomas Harley D	+1.0%	Plays
Nils Lundkvist D	+0.9%	Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.31 → 6.11)

12:23 AM 6.31 first run
7:22 AM 6.31 Line 6 o-121 → 6 o-109
11:17 AM 6.31 no change
12:18 PM 6.31 DAL goalie Jake Oettinger: Likely → Confirmed; DAL lineup: Sam Nestler Oct 13 11:48 AM
1:17 PM 6.22 -0.09Injuries / lineup: Cale Makar (COL) out -0.08; COL lineup: Projected Oct 13 1:07 PM; Line 6 o-109 → 6 o-113
2:18 PM 6.22 no change
3:17 PM 6.22 no change
4:05 PM 6.22 no change
4:17 PM 6.22 Line 6 o-113 → 6 o-115
4:44 PM 6.21 -0.01Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated -0.01
5:20 PM 6.21 no change
5:35 PM 6.21 no change
5:46 PM 6.21 no change
6:01 PM 6.21 no change
6:18 PM 6.21 no change
6:31 PM 6.21 no change
6:45 PM 6.21 no change
7:01 PM 6.21 no change
7:17 PM 6.21 no change
7:31 PM 6.21 no change
7:46 PM 6.21 Line 6 o-115 → 6 o-113
8:17 PM 6.11 -0.10Injuries / lineup: Wyatt Johnston (DAL) out -0.09; COL lineup: Evan Rawal Oct 13 8:13 PM; Line 6 o-113 → 5.5 o-121

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: DAL projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (DAL 2.54); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. The 6.11 total looks high, but most of it comes from COL; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, COL is great (2.48) and DAL is bad (1.87); on the power play, COL is mid (0.57) and DAL is mid (0.55). COL faces Jake Oettinger, a Good goalie, grade 69 (-3.8%); DAL faces Mackenzie Blackwood, an OK goalie, grade 39 (-1.3%). Other factors: COL's team speed adds 7.4%; injuries cost COL 2.4%; DAL's team speed costs 7.0%; injuries cost DAL 5.2%. COL 3.57: 0.47 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.45 (its attack ranks #1 of 32, DAL's defense #4); team speed +0.25 (it skates faster than DAL, +7.4%). Holding it back: Jake Oettinger in goal -0.13 (a Good goalie, grade 69, -3.8%); injuries -0.09 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.4%). DAL 2.54: 0.56 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Holding it back: team speed -0.20 (it skates slower than COL, -7.0%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.17 (its attack ranks #17 of 32, COL's defense #9); injuries -0.14 (missing players on both teams, net, -5.2%); Mackenzie Blackwood in goal -0.04 (an OK goalie, grade 39, -1.3%); power play -0.02 (its power play ranks #9, COL's penalty kill and penalty habits #2). The model projects 6.11 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 43% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 6 to 5.5, toward the under. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (COL 3, DAL 2), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.

6:30 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

BUF#16 OFF / #17 DEF32.81●

U. Luukkonen ✓ OK 26

MTL#15 OFF / #27 DEF43.29●

J. Fowler ✓ Good 62

7 goals · proj 6.09 · P(7+) 45%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
BUF	2.11	0.65	-3.1%	0.50	-8.0%	+0.8%	-4.4%
MTL	2.03	0.58	-0.2%	0.48	+6.5%	–	-0.1%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
BUF	2.12#12 of 32	2.04#18 of 32	2.11goals
MTL	2.07#15 of 32	2.00#16 of 32	2.03goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
BUF	0.53#22 of 32	0.68#28 of 32	0.65goals
MTL	0.52#24 of 32	0.62#26 of 32	0.58goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
BUF
Tage Thompson C	-4.7%	Plays
Rasmus Dahlin D	-2.5%	OUT
Josh Doan R	-1.9%	Plays
Jack Quinn R	-1.9%	Plays
Jason Zucker L	-1.6%	OUT · IR
MTL
Cole Caufield R	-5.3%	Plays
Nick Suzuki C	-5.0%	Plays
Juraj Slafkovský L	-3.3%	Plays
Lane Hutson D	-2.2%	Plays
Ivan Demidov R	-2.0%	OUT · IR

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
BUF
Rasmus Dahlin D	+1.3%	OUT
Josh Doan R	+1.1%	Plays
Noah Ostlund C	+1.0%	Plays
Zach Benson L	+1.0%	Plays
Tage Thompson C	+0.8%	Plays
MTL
Lane Hutson D	+2.0%	Plays
Cole Caufield R	+1.2%	Plays
Zachary Bolduc R	+1.2%	Plays
Nick Suzuki C	+1.1%	Plays
Juraj Slafkovský L	+0.8%	Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (5.96 → 6.09)

12:23 AM 5.96 first run
7:22 AM 6.09 +0.13Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.11; BUF goalie: Colten Ellis → Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen +0.02
11:17 AM 6.10 +0.01MTL goalie: Jakub Dobes → Jacob Fowler +0.02; Injuries / lineup: Mike Matheson (MTL) out -0.01; BUF lineup: Matthew Fairburn Oct 13 9:43 AM; MTL lineup: Projected Oct 13 10:16 AM
12:18 PM 6.10 no change
1:17 PM 6.10 no change
2:18 PM 6.10 no change
3:17 PM 6.10 no change
4:05 PM 6.10 BUF lineup: Matthew Fairburn Oct 13 3:28 PM
4:17 PM 6.10 no change
4:44 PM 6.09 no change
4:46 PM 6.09 no change
5:20 PM 6.09 no change
5:35 PM 6.09 no change
5:46 PM 6.09 no change
6:01 PM 6.09 no change
6:18 PM 6.09 BUF goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: Likely → Confirmed; BUF lineup: Rachel Lenzi Oct 13 6:09 PM; MTL lineup: Patrick Friolet Oct 13 6:11 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: BUF projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (BUF 2.81). The 6.09 total looks high, but most of it comes from MTL; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, BUF is good (2.11) and MTL is mid (2.03); on the power play, BUF is great (0.65) and MTL is mid (0.58). BUF faces Jacob Fowler, a Good goalie, grade 62 (-3.1%); MTL faces Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, an OK goalie, grade 26 (-0.2%). Other factors: BUF played yesterday (-8%); injuries cost BUF 4.4%; MTL's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%). BUF 2.81: 0.30 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: power play +0.08 (its power play ranks #22, MTL's penalty kill and penalty habits #28); 5-on-5 matchup +0.08 (its attack ranks #12 of 32, MTL's defense #18); team speed +0.02 (it skates faster than MTL, +0.8%). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.25 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); injuries -0.13 (missing players on both teams, net, -4.4%); Jacob Fowler in goal -0.10 (a Good goalie, grade 62, -3.1%). MTL 3.29: 0.19 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.20 (BUF played yesterday, +6.5%). The model projects 6.09 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (BUF 3, MTL 4), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

9:45 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

CGY#30 OFF / #29 DEF42.69●

D. Wolf ✓ Trash 14

ANA#7 OFF / #19 DEF23.38●

L. Dostal ✓ OK 31

6 goals · proj 6.07 · P(7+) 44%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
CGY	1.88	0.45	-0.7%	0.50	–	-4.7%	+0.5%
ANA	2.28	0.56	+1.4%	0.48	–	+4.4%	-3.6%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CGY	1.84#26 of 32	2.08#20 of 32	1.88goals
ANA	2.12#10 of 32	2.19#27 of 32	2.28goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CGY	0.41#31 of 32	0.61#23 of 32	0.45goals
ANA	0.61#12 of 32	0.50#5 of 32	0.56goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
CGY
Matt Coronato R	-1.5%	Plays
Morgan Frost C	-1.3%	Plays
Jonathan Huberdeau L	-0.7%	OUT · IR
Ryan Strome C	-0.4%	Plays
Mikael Backlund C	-0.4%	Plays
ANA
Cutter Gauthier L	-3.1%	OUT
Leo Carlsson C	-3.1%	Plays
Beckett Sennecke R	-3.0%	Plays
Mikael Granlund C	-2.0%	Plays
Troy Terry R	-1.6%	OUT · IR

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
CGY
Morgan Frost C	+0.9%	Plays
Joel Hanley D	+0.5%	OUT · scratch
Matt Coronato R	+0.4%	Plays
Adam Klapka R	+0.4%	Plays
Zach Whitecloud D	+0.4%	Plays
ANA
Leo Carlsson C	+0.6%	Plays
Beckett Sennecke R	+0.6%	Plays
Cutter Gauthier L	+0.5%	OUT
Ian Moore D	+0.4%	OUT · IR
Jackson LaCombe D	+0.4%	Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.13 → 6.07)

12:23 AM 6.13 first run
7:22 AM 6.01 -0.12CGY goalie: Dustin Wolf → Devin Cooley -0.11; Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o+102
11:17 AM 6.01 no change
12:18 PM 6.01 no change
1:17 PM 6.00 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Ryan Poehling (ANA) out -0.01; ANA lineup: Patrick Present Oct 13 12:34 PM
2:18 PM 6.12 +0.11CGY goalie: Devin Cooley → Dustin Wolf +0.11; ANA goalie Lukas Dostal: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o-104
3:17 PM 6.09 -0.02Injuries / lineup: Drew Helleson (ANA) back in -0.02; CGY goalie Dustin Wolf: Likely → Confirmed; Drew Helleson (ANA) day-to-day; Line 6.5 o-104 → 6.5 o-106
4:05 PM 6.09 Line 6.5 o-106 → 6.5 o-104
4:17 PM 6.09 no change
4:44 PM 6.07 -0.02Injuries / lineup: Samuel Honzek (CGY) out -0.02; Line 6.5 o-104 → 6.5 o-107
5:20 PM 6.07 no change
5:35 PM 6.07 no change
5:46 PM 6.07 no change
6:01 PM 6.07 Line 6.5 o-107 → 6.5 o-104
6:18 PM 6.07 Line 6.5 o-104 → 6.5 o-105
6:31 PM 6.07 no change
6:45 PM 6.07 no change
7:01 PM 6.07 Line 6.5 o-105 → 6.5 o-106
7:17 PM 6.07 no change
7:31 PM 6.07 no change
7:46 PM 6.07 no change
8:17 PM 6.07 Line 6.5 o-106 → 6.5 o-104
8:22 PM 6.07 no change
8:31 PM 6.07 no change
8:46 PM 6.07 no change
8:49 PM 6.07 no change
9:18 PM 6.07 Line 6.5 o-104 → 6.5 o-102
9:31 PM 6.07 CGY lineup: Derek Wills Oct 13 9:26 PM; Drew Helleson (ANA) off day-to-day; ANA lineup: Derek Lee Oct 13 9:21 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: CGY projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (CGY 2.69). The 6.07 total looks high, but most of it comes from ANA; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, CGY is bad (1.88) and ANA is great (2.28); on the power play, CGY is trash (0.45) and ANA is mid (0.56). CGY faces Lukas Dostal, an OK goalie, grade 31 (-0.7%); ANA faces Dustin Wolf, a Trash goalie, grade 14 (+1.4%). Other factors: CGY's team speed costs 4.7%; ANA's team speed adds 4.4%; injuries cost ANA 3.6%. CGY 2.69: 0.41 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: injuries +0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.5%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.16 (its attack ranks #26 of 32, ANA's defense #20); team speed -0.13 (it skates slower than ANA, -4.7%); power play -0.12 (its power play ranks #31, ANA's penalty kill and penalty habits #23); Lukas Dostal in goal -0.02 (an OK goalie, grade 31, -0.7%). ANA 3.38: 0.28 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.24 (its attack ranks #10 of 32, CGY's defense #27); team speed +0.15 (it skates faster than CGY, +4.4%); Dustin Wolf in goal +0.05 (a Trash goalie, grade 14, +1.4%). Holding it back: injuries -0.13 (missing players on both teams, net, -3.6%); power play -0.02 (its power play ranks #12, CGY's penalty kill and penalty habits #5). The model projects 6.07 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 44% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 6 goals (CGY 4, ANA 2), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

6:15 PM ETAVOID

O 6 ✗ went over

FLA#17 OFF / #16 DEF72.74●

A. Schmid ✓ Trash 18

CBJ#13 OFF / #21 DEF33.28●

C. Talbot ✓ OK 25

10 goals · proj 6.03 · P(7+) 44%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
FLA	1.84	0.75	-0.1%	0.50	-8.0%	-1.2%	-2.1%
CBJ	1.97	0.53	+0.6%	0.48	+6.5%	+1.3%	+1.5%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
FLA	1.89#24 of 32	1.99#13 of 32	1.84goals
CBJ	2.11#13 of 32	1.90#6 of 32	1.97goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
FLA	0.71#2 of 32	0.58#21 of 32	0.75goals
CBJ	0.47#28 of 32	0.62#24 of 32	0.53goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
FLA
Sam Reinhart C	-3.6%	Plays
Sam Bennett C	-3.1%	Plays
Matthew Tkachuk L	-2.8%	Plays
Carter Verhaeghe C	-2.8%	Plays
Brad Marchand L	-2.1%	OUT · IR
CBJ
Zach Werenski D	-2.5%	Plays
Adam Fantilli C	-2.2%	Plays
Sean Monahan C	-1.5%	Plays
Dmitri Voronkov L	-1.4%	Plays
Charlie Coyle C	-1.3%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
FLA
Niko Mikkola D	+0.8%	Plays
Carter Verhaeghe C	+0.8%	Plays
Uvis Balinskis D	+0.8%	Plays
Sam Bennett C	+0.7%	Plays
Sam Reinhart C	+0.6%	Plays
CBJ
Kent Johnson C	+0.8%	Plays
Adam Fantilli C	+0.8%	Plays
Zach Werenski D	+0.6%	Plays
Dmitri Voronkov L	+0.6%	Plays
Danton Heinen L	+0.4%	Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (5.81 → 6.03)

12:23 AM 5.81 first run
7:22 AM 5.91 +0.10Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.07; FLA goalie: Jacob Markstrom → Akira Schmid +0.03; Line 6 o-112 → 6 o-105
11:17 AM 6.05 +0.13CBJ goalie: Jet Greaves → Cam Talbot +0.13; Conor Garland (CBJ) day-to-day; CBJ lineup: Mark Scheig Oct 13 10:12 AM; Line 6 o-105 → 6 o-123
12:18 PM 6.05 FLA goalie Akira Schmid: Likely → Confirmed
1:17 PM 6.05 no change
2:18 PM 6.05 no change
3:17 PM 6.05 Line 6 o-123 → 6 o-120
4:05 PM 6.03 -0.02Injuries / lineup: Uvis Balinskis (FLA) back in -0.02
4:44 PM 6.03 Injuries / lineup: Radko Gudas (FLA) out -0.00
5:20 PM 6.03 Line 6 o-120 → 6 o-119
5:35 PM 6.03 no change
5:46 PM 6.03 no change
6:01 PM 6.03 FLA lineup: Rob Darragh Oct 13 5:53 PM; CBJ lineup: Mark Scheig Oct 13 5:55 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: FLA projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (FLA 2.74). The 6.03 total looks high, but most of it comes from CBJ; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, FLA is bad (1.84) and CBJ is mid (1.97); on the power play, FLA is great (0.75) and CBJ is mid (0.53). FLA faces Cam Talbot, an OK goalie, grade 25 (-0.1%); CBJ faces Akira Schmid, a Trash goalie, grade 18 (+0.6%). Other factors: FLA played yesterday (-8%); injuries cost FLA 2.1%; CBJ's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); injuries help CBJ 1.5%. FLA 2.74: 0.36 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: power play +0.17 (its power play ranks #2, CBJ's penalty kill and penalty habits #21). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.25 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.19 (its attack ranks #24 of 32, CBJ's defense #13); injuries -0.06 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.1%); team speed -0.03 (it skates slower than CBJ, -1.2%). CBJ 3.28: 0.18 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.19 (FLA played yesterday, +6.5%); injuries +0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.5%); team speed +0.04 (it skates faster than FLA, +1.3%); Akira Schmid in goal +0.02 (a Trash goalie, grade 18, +0.6%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.07 (its attack ranks #13 of 32, FLA's defense #6); power play -0.04 (its power play ranks #28, FLA's penalty kill and penalty habits #24). The model projects 6.03 total goals against a 6 line, with a 44% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 10 goals (FLA 7, CBJ 3), so it went over 6 and the call was wrong.

7:30 PM ETAVOID

O 5.5 ✗ went over

STL#28 OFF / #13 DEF73.09●

J. Hofer ✓ Good 64

OTT#11 OFF / #5 DEF22.88●

S. Ersson ✓ Trash 1

9 goals · proj 5.96 · P(7+) 44%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
STL	1.82	0.39	+6.3%	0.48	+6.5%	-1.8%	+3.4%
OTT	2.03	0.61	-3.4%	0.50	-8.0%	+1.9%	+1.2%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
STL	1.96#19 of 32	1.89#5 of 32	1.82goals
OTT	2.10#14 of 32	1.97#10 of 32	2.03goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
STL	0.39#32 of 32	0.56#14 of 32	0.39goals
OTT	0.63#10 of 32	0.53#8 of 32	0.61goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
STL
Robert Thomas C	-2.6%	Plays
Jimmy Snuggerud R	-1.8%	Plays
Dylan Holloway L	-1.8%	Plays
Pavel Buchnevich L	-1.3%	Plays
Jake Neighbours L	-0.9%	Plays
OTT
Tim Stützle C	-4.2%	Plays
Drake Batherson R	-3.3%	Plays
Dylan Cozens C	-2.5%	Plays
Shane Pinto C	-1.6%	Plays
Claude Giroux R	-1.3%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
STL
Dylan Holloway L	+0.8%	Plays
Cam Fowler D	+0.7%	Plays
Dalibor Dvorsky R	+0.7%	Plays
Jake Neighbours L	+0.7%	Plays
Jimmy Snuggerud R	+0.7%	Plays
OTT
Jordan Spence D	+2.2%	Plays
Drake Batherson R	+1.5%	Plays
Dylan Cozens C	+1.4%	Plays
Tim Stützle C	+1.2%	Plays
Tyler Kleven D	+1.1%	Plays

Also out: OTT: Jake Sanderson -1.0% attack, +0.6% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (5.65 → 5.96)

12:23 AM 5.65 first run
7:22 AM 5.95 +0.30OTT goalie: Linus Ullmark → Samuel Ersson +0.29; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.01; Line 6 o-113 → 5.5 o-121
11:17 AM 5.93 -0.02Injuries / lineup: Nikolas Matinpalo (OTT) back in -0.02; STL lineup: Jeremy Rutherford Oct 13 10:19 AM; Nikolas Matinpalo (OTT) day-to-day
12:18 PM 5.93 STL goalie Joel Hofer: Likely → Confirmed
1:17 PM 5.93 no change
2:18 PM 5.93 no change
3:17 PM 5.93 no change
4:05 PM 5.93 no change
4:17 PM 5.93 no change
4:44 PM 5.92 Injuries / lineup: William Eklund (OTT) out -0.00
5:20 PM 5.92 no change
5:35 PM 5.96 +0.04Injuries / lineup: Nikolas Matinpalo (OTT) out +0.04; OTT goalie Samuel Ersson: Likely → Confirmed
6:01 PM 5.96 Line 5.5 o-121 → 5.5 o-120
6:18 PM 5.96 no change
6:31 PM 5.96 no change
6:45 PM 5.96 no change
7:01 PM 5.96 Line 5.5 o-120 → 5.5 o-125
7:17 PM 5.96 OTT lineup: Bruce Garrioch Oct 13 7:08 PM; Line 5.5 o-125 → 5.5 o-126

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: STL and OTT project under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (STL 3.09, OTT 2.88); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, STL is trash (1.82) and OTT is mid (2.03); on the power play, STL is trash (0.39) and OTT is good (0.61). STL faces Samuel Ersson, a Trash goalie, grade 1 (+6.3%); OTT faces Joel Hofer, a Good goalie, grade 64 (-3.4%). Other factors: STL's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); injuries help STL 3.4%; OTT played yesterday (-8%). STL 3.09: 0.01 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.19 (OTT played yesterday, +6.5%); Samuel Ersson in goal +0.17 (a Trash goalie, grade 1, +6.3%); injuries +0.10 (missing players on both teams, net, +3.4%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.22 (its attack ranks #19 of 32, OTT's defense #5); power play -0.18 (its power play ranks #32, OTT's penalty kill and penalty habits #14); team speed -0.06 (it skates slower than OTT, -1.8%). OTT 2.88: 0.23 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: team speed +0.05 (it skates faster than STL, +1.9%); power play +0.03 (its power play ranks #10, STL's penalty kill and penalty habits #8); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.2%). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.24 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); Joel Hofer in goal -0.11 (a Good goalie, grade 64, -3.4%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.01 (its attack ranks #14 of 32, STL's defense #10). The model projects 5.96 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 44% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 9 goals (STL 7, OTT 2), so it went over 5.5 and the call was wrong.

6:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6 ✗ went over

NJD#12 OFF / #15 DEF52.73●

J. Allen ✓ Mid 60

DET#14 OFF / #10 DEF43.17●

J. Gibson ✓ OK 32

9 goals · proj 5.89 · P(7+) 43%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
NJD	1.85	0.64	-0.8%	0.50	-8.0%	-0.8%	+0.9%
DET	1.86	0.63	-3.0%	0.48	+6.5%	+0.6%	+2.2%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NJD	1.91#23 of 32	1.98#12 of 32	1.85goals
DET	1.88#25 of 32	2.02#17 of 32	1.86goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NJD	0.57#16 of 32	0.62#24 of 32	0.64goals
DET	0.66#7 of 32	0.53#7 of 32	0.63goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
NJD
Jack Hughes C	-3.9%	Plays
Nico Hischier C	-3.6%	Plays
Jesper Bratt L	-3.4%	Plays
Timo Meier R	-1.9%	Plays
Dougie Hamilton D	-1.3%	Plays
DET
Alex DeBrincat R	-5.1%	Plays
Lucas Raymond L	-3.7%	Plays
Dylan Larkin C	-3.2%	Plays
Moritz Seider D	-1.1%	Plays
Viktor Arvidsson L	-0.7%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
NJD
Jack Hughes C	+1.1%	Plays
Luke Hughes D	+1.0%	Plays
Dougie Hamilton D	+0.9%	Plays
Jesper Bratt L	+0.9%	Plays
Timo Meier R	+0.8%	Plays
DET
Moritz Seider D	+1.3%	Plays
Alex DeBrincat R	+1.2%	Plays
Lucas Raymond L	+1.2%	Plays
Emmitt Finnie C	+0.7%	Plays
Axel Sandin-Pellikka D	+0.6%	OUT · scratch

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (5.92 → 5.89)

12:23 AM 5.92 first run
7:22 AM 5.87 -0.04Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.05; NJD goalie Jake Allen: Conflict → Confirmed; Line 6 o-112 → 6 o-115
11:17 AM 5.88 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Axel Sandin-Pellikka (DET) out +0.01; Luke Evangelista (NJD) off day-to-day; DET goalie John Gibson: Likely → Confirmed; Lucas Raymond (DET) off day-to-day; DET lineup: Ansar Khan Oct 13 10:36 AM
12:18 PM 5.88 no change
1:17 PM 5.88 no change
2:18 PM 5.88 no change
3:17 PM 5.88 no change
4:05 PM 5.88 Line 6 o-115 → 6 o-123
4:17 PM 5.88 no change
4:44 PM 5.89 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Luke Evangelista (NJD) out, Stefan Noesen (NJD) back in +0.01; NJD lineup: Projected Oct 13 4:20 PM
5:20 PM 5.89 no change
5:35 PM 5.89 no change
5:46 PM 5.89 NJD lineup: Amanda Stein Oct 13 5:37 PM; Line 6 o-123 → 6 o-109

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: NJD projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (NJD 2.73). At 5-on-5, NJD is bad (1.85) and DET is bad (1.86); on the power play, NJD is good (0.64) and DET is good (0.63). NJD faces John Gibson, an OK goalie, grade 32 (-0.8%); DET faces Jake Allen, a Mid goalie, grade 60 (-3.0%). Other factors: NJD played yesterday (-8%); DET's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); injuries help DET 2.2%. NJD 2.73: 0.37 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: power play +0.07 (its power play ranks #16, DET's penalty kill and penalty habits #24); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.9%). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.24 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.19 (its attack ranks #23 of 32, DET's defense #12); John Gibson in goal -0.02 (an OK goalie, grade 32, -0.8%); team speed -0.02 (it skates slower than DET, -0.8%). DET 3.17: 0.06 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.19 (NJD played yesterday, +6.5%); injuries +0.07 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.2%); power play +0.06 (its power play ranks #7, NJD's penalty kill and penalty habits #7); team speed +0.02 (it skates faster than NJD, +0.6%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.17 (its attack ranks #25 of 32, NJD's defense #17); Jake Allen in goal -0.09 (a Mid goalie, grade 60, -3.0%). The model projects 5.89 total goals against a 6 line, with a 43% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 9 goals (NJD 5, DET 4), so it went over 6 and the call was wrong.

10:30 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

EDM#4 OFF / #12 DEF43.30●

D. Levi ✓ Trash 18

LAK#26 OFF / #11 DEF12.58●

D. Kuemper ✓ Mid 44

5 goals · proj 5.88 · P(7+) 41%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
EDM	2.07	0.73	-1.7%	0.49	–	+4.5%	-2.5%
LAK	1.70	0.49	+0.7%	0.49	–	-4.0%	-0.3%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
EDM	2.26#5 of 32	1.87#3 of 32	2.07goals
LAK	1.82#29 of 32	1.91#8 of 32	1.70goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
EDM	0.68#4 of 32	0.59#22 of 32	0.73goals
LAK	0.50#25 of 32	0.54#11 of 32	0.49goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
EDM
Connor McDavid C	-7.9%	Plays
Leon Draisaitl C	-6.1%	Plays
Evan Bouchard D	-4.6%	Plays
Zach Hyman L	-3.0%	OUT
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C	-2.0%	OUT · IR
LAK
Artemi Panarin L	-3.9%	Plays
Adrian Kempe R	-3.2%	Plays
Quinton Byfield R	-1.6%	Plays
Kevin Fiala L	-1.3%	OUT · IR
Alex Laferriere R	-0.9%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
EDM
Connor McDavid C	+1.6%	Plays
Leon Draisaitl C	+1.4%	Plays
Evan Bouchard D	+1.4%	Plays
Vasily Podkolzin R	+1.3%	Plays
Zach Hyman L	+0.7%	OUT
LAK
Brandt Clarke D	+1.8%	Plays
Artemi Panarin L	+1.1%	Plays
Adrian Kempe R	+1.0%	Plays
Kevin Fiala L	+1.0%	OUT · IR
Drew Doughty D	+1.0%	Plays

Also out: LAK: Alex Turcotte +0.1% attack, +0.6% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (5.89 → 5.88)

12:23 AM 5.89 first run
7:22 AM 5.88 -0.01LAK goalie: Anton Forsberg → Darcy Kuemper -0.01
11:17 AM 5.88 no change
12:18 PM 5.88 no change
1:17 PM 5.88 no change
2:18 PM 5.88 EDM goalie Devon Levi: Likely → Confirmed; EDM lineup: Bob Stauffer Oct 13 2:05 PM; LAK goalie Darcy Kuemper: Likely → Confirmed
3:17 PM 5.88 no change
4:05 PM 5.88 Line 6.5 o-107 → 6.5 o+105
4:17 PM 5.88 no change
4:44 PM 5.88 Injuries / lineup: Mats Zuccarello (LAK) out +0.00; Line 6.5 o+105 → 6.5 o-107
5:20 PM 5.88 no change
5:35 PM 5.88 no change
5:46 PM 5.88 no change
6:01 PM 5.88 no change
6:18 PM 5.88 no change
6:31 PM 5.88 no change
6:45 PM 5.88 no change
7:01 PM 5.88 no change
7:17 PM 5.88 no change
7:31 PM 5.88 no change
7:46 PM 5.88 no change
8:17 PM 5.88 no change
8:22 PM 5.88 no change
8:31 PM 5.88 no change
8:46 PM 5.88 no change
8:49 PM 5.88 no change
9:18 PM 5.88 no change
9:31 PM 5.88 no change
10:18 PM 5.88 LAK lineup: Zach Dooley Oct 13 10:11 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: LAK projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (LAK 2.58). At 5-on-5, EDM is good (2.07) and LAK is trash (1.70); on the power play, EDM is great (0.73) and LAK is bad (0.49). EDM faces Darcy Kuemper, a Mid goalie, grade 44 (-1.7%); LAK faces Devon Levi, a Trash goalie, grade 18 (+0.7%). Other factors: EDM's team speed adds 4.5%; injuries cost EDM 2.5%; LAK's team speed costs 4.0%. EDM 3.30: 0.19 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: power play +0.16 (its power play ranks #4, LAK's penalty kill and penalty habits #22); team speed +0.15 (it skates faster than LAK, +4.5%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.04 (its attack ranks #5 of 32, LAK's defense #3). Holding it back: injuries -0.09 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.5%); Darcy Kuemper in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 44, -1.7%). LAK 2.58: 0.52 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: Devon Levi in goal +0.02 (a Trash goalie, grade 18, +0.7%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.34 (its attack ranks #29 of 32, EDM's defense #8); team speed -0.11 (it skates slower than EDM, -4.0%); power play -0.09 (its power play ranks #25, EDM's penalty kill and penalty habits #11). The model projects 5.88 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 41% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (EDM 4, LAK 1), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

7:15 PM ETAVOID

U 6 ✓ under

TBL#6 OFF / #7 DEF13.20●

A. Vasilevskiy ✓ Strong 92

NYR#18 OFF / #9 DEF42.67●

D. Garand ✓ Mid 48

5 goals · proj 5.87 · P(7+) 42%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
TBL	2.17	0.54	-2.1%	0.49	–	+1.0%	+0.9%
NYR	1.76	0.64	-8.2%	0.50	–	-1.1%	+1.2%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
TBL	2.25#6 of 32	1.97#10 of 32	2.17goals
NYR	1.93#21 of 32	1.87#2 of 32	1.76goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
TBL	0.56#18 of 32	0.53#9 of 32	0.54goals
NYR	0.63#11 of 32	0.56#16 of 32	0.64goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
TBL
Nikita Kucherov R	-7.3%	Plays
Jake Guentzel C	-5.2%	Plays
Brandon Hagel L	-5.2%	Plays
Brayden Point C	-3.4%	Plays
Anthony Cirelli C	-2.9%	Plays
NYR
Mika Zibanejad C	-3.1%	Plays
Alexis Lafrenière L	-2.4%	Plays
J.T. Miller C	-2.2%	Plays
Adam Fox D	-1.8%	Plays
Pavel Dorofeyev R	-1.1%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
TBL
Gage Goncalves C	+1.2%	Plays
Pontus Holmberg R	+1.1%	Plays
Nikita Kucherov R	+1.0%	Plays
Jake Guentzel C	+0.9%	Plays
Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	+0.8%	Plays
NYR
Alexis Lafrenière L	+0.8%	Plays
Adam Fox D	+0.7%	Plays
Pavel Dorofeyev R	+0.5%	Plays
Gabe Perreault R	+0.4%	Plays
Tye Kartye L	+0.4%	Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (5.86 → 5.87)

12:23 AM 5.86 first run
7:22 AM 5.85 Line 6 o-121 → 6 o-108
11:17 AM 5.87 +0.02Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated +0.02; NYR goalie Dylan Garand: Likely → Confirmed; NYR lineup: Vince Mercogliano Oct 13 10:37 AM
12:18 PM 5.87 TBL goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy: Likely → Confirmed
1:17 PM 5.87 no change
2:18 PM 5.87 Line 6 o-108 → 6 o-110
3:17 PM 5.87 Line 6 o-110 → 6 o-108
4:05 PM 5.87 Line 6 o-108 → 6 o-109
4:17 PM 5.87 Line 6 o-109 → 6 o-108
4:44 PM 5.87 no change
4:46 PM 5.87 no change
5:20 PM 5.87 Line 6 o-108 → 6 o-110
5:35 PM 5.87 no change
5:46 PM 5.87 no change
6:01 PM 5.87 Line 6 o-110 → 6 o-123
6:18 PM 5.87 no change
6:31 PM 5.87 no change
6:45 PM 5.87 Line 6 o-123 → 6 o-122
7:01 PM 5.87 TBL lineup: Benjamin Pierce Oct 13 6:52 PM; NYR lineup: Mollie Walker Oct 13 6:53 PM; Line 6 o-122 → 6 o-116

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: NYR projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (NYR 2.67). At 5-on-5, TBL is good (2.17) and NYR is trash (1.76); on the power play, TBL is mid (0.54) and NYR is good (0.64). TBL faces Dylan Garand, a Mid goalie, grade 48 (-2.1%); NYR faces Andrei Vasilevskiy, a Strong goalie, grade 92 (-8.2%). TBL 3.20: 0.10 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.14 (its attack ranks #6 of 32, NYR's defense #10); team speed +0.03 (it skates faster than NYR, +1.0%); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.9%). Holding it back: Dylan Garand in goal -0.07 (a Mid goalie, grade 48, -2.1%); power play -0.03 (its power play ranks #18, NYR's penalty kill and penalty habits #9). NYR 2.67: 0.43 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: power play +0.07 (its power play ranks #11, TBL's penalty kill and penalty habits #16); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.2%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.27 (its attack ranks #21 of 32, TBL's defense #2); Andrei Vasilevskiy in goal -0.24 (a Strong goalie, grade 92, -8.2%); team speed -0.03 (it skates slower than TBL, -1.1%). The model projects 5.87 total goals against a 6 line, with a 42% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 5.5 to 6, toward the over. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (TBL 1, NYR 4), so it stayed under 6 and the call was right.

8:45 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

VGK#5 OFF / #3 DEF53.16●

A. Hill ✓ Trash 19

NSH#19 OFF / #23 DEF22.66●

J. Saros ✓ Mid 41

7 goals · proj 5.82 · P(7+) 42%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
VGK	2.20	0.71	-1.4%	0.50	-8.0%	+1.7%	+0.4%
NSH	1.59	0.46	+0.5%	0.48	+6.5%	-2.2%	+0.3%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
VGK	2.12#11 of 32	2.12#23 of 32	2.20goals
NSH	1.82#28 of 32	1.78#1 of 32	1.59goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
VGK	0.69#3 of 32	0.57#18 of 32	0.71goals
NSH	0.65#8 of 32	0.40#1 of 32	0.46goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
VGK
Jack Eichel C	-4.8%	Plays
Mitch Marner R	-4.0%	Plays
Mark Stone R	-4.0%	Plays
Tomas Hertl C	-3.7%	Plays
Ivan Barbashev L	-1.8%	Plays
NSH
Filip Forsberg L	-4.2%	Plays
Steven Stamkos C	-4.0%	Plays
Ryan O'Reilly C	-3.0%	Plays
Roman Josi D	-1.5%	Plays
Jonathan Marchessault R	-1.2%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
VGK
Tomas Hertl C	+1.6%	Plays
Shea Theodore D	+1.3%	Plays
Mark Stone R	+1.3%	Plays
Ivan Barbashev L	+1.2%	Plays
Noah Hanifin D	+1.1%	Plays
NSH
Filip Forsberg L	+0.7%	Plays
Steven Stamkos C	+0.7%	Plays
Roman Josi D	+0.4%	Plays
Adam Wilsby D	+0.4%	Plays
Mavrik Bourque C	+0.2%	OUT

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (5.81 → 5.82)

12:23 AM 5.81 first run
7:22 AM 5.80 -0.02VGK goalie: Carter Hart → Adin Hill -0.02
11:17 AM 5.80 no change
12:18 PM 5.80 NSH goalie Juuse Saros: Likely → Confirmed
1:17 PM 5.80 no change
2:18 PM 5.80 no change
3:17 PM 5.80 Line 6.5 o-104 → 6.5 o-107
4:05 PM 5.80 no change
4:17 PM 5.80 no change
4:44 PM 5.82 +0.02Injuries / lineup: Parker Wotherspoon (VGK) out, Victor Olofsson (VGK) out, Mavrik Bourque (NSH) out +0.02; Line 6.5 o-107 → 6.5 o-106
5:20 PM 5.82 Line 6.5 o-106 → 6.5 o-107
5:35 PM 5.82 no change
5:46 PM 5.82 Line 6.5 o-107 → 6.5 o+108
6:01 PM 5.82 Line 6.5 o+108 → 6.5 o-106
6:18 PM 5.82 no change
6:31 PM 5.82 no change
6:45 PM 5.82 no change
7:01 PM 5.82 no change
7:17 PM 5.82 no change
7:31 PM 5.82 no change
7:46 PM 5.82 no change
8:17 PM 5.82 no change
8:22 PM 5.82 no change
8:31 PM 5.82 NSH lineup: Brooks Bratten Oct 13 8:23 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: NSH projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (NSH 2.66). At 5-on-5, VGK is great (2.20) and NSH is trash (1.59); on the power play, VGK is great (0.71) and NSH is bad (0.46). VGK faces Juuse Saros, a Mid goalie, grade 41 (-1.4%); NSH faces Adin Hill, a Trash goalie, grade 19 (+0.5%). Other factors: VGK played yesterday (-8%); NSH's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); NSH's team speed costs 2.2%. VGK 3.16: 0.05 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.16 (its attack ranks #11 of 32, NSH's defense #23); power play +0.14 (its power play ranks #3, NSH's penalty kill and penalty habits #18); team speed +0.05 (it skates faster than NSH, +1.7%); injuries +0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.4%). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.27 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); Juuse Saros in goal -0.05 (a Mid goalie, grade 41, -1.4%). NSH 2.66: 0.44 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.17 (VGK played yesterday, +6.5%); Adin Hill in goal +0.01 (a Trash goalie, grade 19, +0.5%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.45 (its attack ranks #28 of 32, VGK's defense #1); power play -0.11 (its power play ranks #8, VGK's penalty kill and penalty habits #1); team speed -0.06 (it skates slower than VGK, -2.2%). The model projects 5.82 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 42% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (VGK 5, NSH 2), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.