Sunday, October 25, 2026

5 games · 0 flags · 2 of 5 went over the line · avg 6.2 goals (projected 6.1) · calls: SLAM – · 1U – · PASS – · AVOID 3 of 5 stayed under

Breakdown (for scoring):greatgoodmidbadtrash
TeamResultGoaliesProjection breakdown
TeamGProjTotal goalsProj totalP(7+)LinePickGoalie5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
COL#3 OFF / #4 DEF24.32●8O 6.56.6544%6.5 → 6.58:00 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over		S. Wedgewood ✓ Good 712.780.54-0.9%0.50+6.5%+7.5%-0.1%
NSH#18 OFF / #24 DEF62.33●J. Annunen ✓ OK 341.770.53-4.0%0.53-8.0%-7.0%+0.2%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
COL2.60#1 of 322.18#26 of 322.78goals0.55#20 of 320.54#9 of 320.54goals
NSH1.81#26 of 321.98#13 of 321.77goals0.58#15 of 320.50#5 of 320.53goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-gamePlayerIf outPre-game
COLNathan MacKinnon C-7.0%PlaysMartin Necas C+1.4%Plays
Martin Necas C-5.1%PlaysSam Malinski D+1.4%Plays
Cale Makar D-3.2%PlaysNathan MacKinnon C+1.3%Plays
Artturi Lehkonen L-2.8%PlaysBrett Kulak D+0.9%Plays
Brock Nelson C-2.8%PlaysCale Makar D+0.8%Plays
NSHFilip Forsberg L-4.1%PlaysFilip Forsberg L+0.6%Plays
Steven Stamkos C-3.9%PlaysSteven Stamkos C+0.5%Plays
Ryan O'Reilly C-3.0%PlaysAdam Wilsby D+0.5%Plays
Roman Josi D-1.5%PlaysRoman Josi D+0.4%Plays
Jonathan Marchessault R-1.2%PlaysRoss Colton C+0.4%Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.62 → 6.65)
  • 12:02 AM 6.62 first run
  • 12:54 AM 6.62 COL goalie Mackenzie Blackwood: Projected → Likely; Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-120
  • 4:55 AM 6.62 NSH goalie Juuse Saros: Confirmed → Likely
  • 11:18 AM 6.70 +0.08Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.07; NSH goalie: Juuse Saros → Justus Annunen +0.01; NSH lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-24); Line 6.5 o-120 → 6.5 o-116
  • 12:17 PM 6.70 Line 6.5 o-116 → 6.5 o-115
  • 1:18 PM 6.65 -0.05COL goalie: Mackenzie Blackwood → Scott Wedgewood -0.05
  • 2:17 PM 6.65 NSH goalie Justus Annunen: Likely → Confirmed
  • 2:27 PM 6.65 Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-116
  • 2:45 PM 6.65 Line 6.5 o-116 → 6.5 o-118
  • 3:18 PM 6.65 no change
  • 4:17 PM 6.65 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.65 Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-115
  • 5:45 PM 6.65 Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-116
  • 5:53 PM 6.65 Line 6.5 o-116 → 6.5 o-117
  • 6:17 PM 6.65 no change
  • 6:45 PM 6.65 no change
  • 7:17 PM 6.65 Line 6.5 o-117 → 6.5 o-114
  • 7:45 PM 6.65 NSH lineup: Brooks Bratten Oct 25 7:39 PM; Line 6.5 o-114 → 6.5 o-110

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: NSH projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (NSH 2.33). The 6.65 total looks high, but most of it comes from COL; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, COL is great (2.78) and NSH is trash (1.77); on the power play, COL is mid (0.54) and NSH is bad (0.53). COL faces Justus Annunen, an OK goalie, grade 34 (-0.9%); NSH faces Scott Wedgewood, a Good goalie, grade 71 (-4.0%). Other factors: COL's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); COL's team speed adds 7.5%; NSH played yesterday (-8%); NSH's team speed costs 7.0%. COL 4.32: 1.19 goals above what an average team would score (3.13). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.73 (its attack ranks #1 of 32, NSH's defense #26); team speed +0.30 (it skates faster than NSH, +7.5%); back-to-back +0.25 (NSH played yesterday, +6.5%). Holding it back: power play -0.04 (its power play ranks #20, NSH's penalty kill and penalty habits #9); Justus Annunen in goal -0.03 (an OK goalie, grade 34, -0.9%). NSH 2.33: 0.81 goals below what an average team would score (3.13). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.28 (its attack ranks #26 of 32, COL's defense #13); back-to-back -0.22 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); team speed -0.18 (it skates slower than COL, -7.0%); Scott Wedgewood in goal -0.11 (a Good goalie, grade 71, -4.0%); power play -0.05 (its power play ranks #15, COL's penalty kill and penalty habits #5). The model projects 6.65 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 44% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 5.5 to 6.5, toward the over. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 8 goals (COL 2, NSH 6), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.
MIN#2 OFF / #3 DEF43.59●6U 6.56.6150%6.5 → 6.510:00 PM ET
AVOID
✓ under		C. Pickard ✓ Trash 42.470.78+2.5%0.52-8.0%+0.5%+0.4%
VAN#30 OFF / #32 DEF23.02●L. Meriläinen ✓ Trash 81.640.61+3.5%0.50+6.5%-0.8%+0.2%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
MIN2.10#13 of 322.40#32 of 322.47goals0.62#10 of 320.70#31 of 320.78goals
VAN1.76#30 of 321.91#8 of 321.64goals0.57#17 of 320.59#19 of 320.61goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-gamePlayerIf outPre-game
MINKirill Kaprizov L-6.0%PlaysQuinn Hughes D+2.1%Plays
Matt Boldy L-4.8%PlaysKirill Kaprizov L+1.7%Plays
Joel Eriksson Ek C-2.9%PlaysMatt Boldy L+1.1%Plays
Quinn Hughes D-2.7%PlaysBobby Brink R+1.1%Plays
Ryan Hartman R-0.8%PlaysJared Spurgeon D+0.9%Plays
VANBrock Boeser R-1.8%PlaysLinus Karlsson C+0.7%Plays
Elias Pettersson C-1.7%PlaysJake DeBrusk L+0.5%Plays
Jake DeBrusk L-1.7%PlaysMarco Rossi C+0.4%Plays
Marco Rossi C-1.1%PlaysTom Willander D+0.4%Plays
Linus Karlsson C-1.0%PlaysElias Pettersson C+0.4%Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.35 → 6.61)
  • 12:02 AM 6.35 first run
  • 12:54 AM 6.53 +0.18MIN goalie: Jesper Wallstedt → Calvin Pickard +0.18; VAN goalie Leevi Merilainen: Projected → Likely
  • 4:55 AM 6.53 MIN goalie Calvin Pickard: Conflict → Confirmed
  • 11:18 AM 6.60 +0.07Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.07; MIN lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-24); Line 6.5 o-106 → 6.5 o-110
  • 12:17 PM 6.60 no change
  • 1:18 PM 6.60 no change
  • 2:17 PM 6.60 VAN goalie Leevi Merilainen: Likely → Confirmed; VAN lineup: Ben Kuzma Oct 25 1:34 PM; Line 6.5 o-110 → 6.5 o-113
  • 2:27 PM 6.60 no change
  • 2:45 PM 6.60 no change
  • 3:18 PM 6.60 no change
  • 4:17 PM 6.60 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.60 Line 6.5 o-113 → 6.5 o-110
  • 5:45 PM 6.60 Line 6.5 o-110 → 6.5 o-115
  • 5:53 PM 6.60 no change
  • 6:17 PM 6.60 no change
  • 6:45 PM 6.60 no change
  • 7:17 PM 6.60 no change
  • 7:45 PM 6.60 no change
  • 8:18 PM 6.60 no change
  • 8:28 PM 6.60 no change
  • 9:17 PM 6.60 no change
  • 9:45 PM 6.61 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Paul Cotter (VAN) out +0.01; VAN lineup: Brendan Batchelor Oct 25 9:40 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: VAN projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (VAN 3.02). VAN just misses the cutoff (by 0.08), and the rule needs both teams over it, so the 6.61 total isn't enough on its own. At 5-on-5, MIN is great (2.47) and VAN is trash (1.64); on the power play, MIN is great (0.78) and VAN is good (0.61). MIN faces Leevi Merilainen, a Trash goalie, grade 8 (+2.5%); VAN faces Calvin Pickard, a Trash goalie, grade 4 (+3.5%). Other factors: MIN played yesterday (-8%); VAN's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%). MIN 3.59: 0.45 goals above what an average team would score (3.13). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.42 (its attack ranks #13 of 32, VAN's defense #32); power play +0.21 (its power play ranks #10, VAN's penalty kill and penalty habits #31); Leevi Merilainen in goal +0.10 (a Trash goalie, grade 8, +2.5%); team speed +0.02 (it skates faster than VAN, +0.5%); injuries +0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.4%). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.31 (it played yesterday, -8.0%). VAN 3.02: 0.12 goals below what an average team would score (3.13). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.19 (MIN played yesterday, +6.5%); Calvin Pickard in goal +0.10 (a Trash goalie, grade 4, +3.5%); power play +0.03 (its power play ranks #17, MIN's penalty kill and penalty habits #19). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.40 (its attack ranks #30 of 32, MIN's defense #8); team speed -0.03 (it skates slower than MIN, -0.8%). The model projects 6.61 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 50% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 6 goals (MIN 4, VAN 2), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.
MTL#15 OFF / #22 DEF23.13●3U 5.56.0545%5.5 → 5.57:00 PM ET
AVOID
✓ under		J. Fowler ✓ Good 642.230.52-2.5%0.51–+4.0%-5.1%
WPG#25 OFF / #20 DEF12.92●S. Skinner ✓ Mid 541.940.67-3.4%0.52–-4.0%+0.5%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
MTL2.13#9 of 322.14#22 of 322.23goals0.50#27 of 320.57#14 of 320.52goals
WPG1.95#22 of 322.03#15 of 321.94goals0.54#21 of 320.68#30 of 320.67goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-gamePlayerIf outPre-game
MTLCole Caufield R-5.3%PlaysLane Hutson D+2.0%Plays
Nick Suzuki C-4.9%OUTZachary Bolduc R+1.3%Plays
Juraj Slafkovský L-3.3%PlaysCole Caufield R+1.2%Plays
Lane Hutson D-2.4%PlaysNick Suzuki C+1.1%OUT
Ivan Demidov R-1.6%OUT · IRJuraj Slafkovský L+0.8%Plays
WPGKyle Connor L-4.9%PlaysCole Perfetti C+1.3%Plays
Mark Scheifele C-4.5%PlaysJosh Morrissey D+0.9%OUT · IR
Gabriel Vilardi C-2.9%PlaysNino Niederreiter R+0.8%Plays
Cole Perfetti C-1.6%PlaysAlex Iafallo L+0.7%Plays
Josh Morrissey D-1.1%OUT · IRGabriel Vilardi C+0.6%Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.01 → 6.05)
  • 12:02 AM 6.01 first run
  • 12:54 AM 6.08 +0.07WPG goalie: Stuart Skinner → Clay Stevenson +0.06; MTL goalie: Jacob Fowler → Jakub Dobes +0.01; Line 5.5 o-128 → 5.5 o-127
  • 4:55 AM 6.02 -0.06WPG goalie: Clay Stevenson → Stuart Skinner -0.06; Line 5.5 o-127 → 5.5 o-131
  • 11:18 AM 6.06 +0.04Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.04; Line 5.5 o-131 → 5.5 o-132
  • 12:17 PM 6.06 no change
  • 1:18 PM 6.06 WPG goalie Stuart Skinner: Likely → Confirmed
  • 2:17 PM 6.06 no change
  • 2:27 PM 6.06 no change
  • 2:45 PM 6.06 no change
  • 3:18 PM 6.06 no change
  • 4:17 PM 6.06 Nino Niederreiter (WPG) off day-to-day
  • 5:17 PM 6.05 -0.01MTL goalie: Jakub Dobes → Jacob Fowler -0.01; Line 5.5 o-132 → 5.5 o-133
  • 5:45 PM 6.05 Line 5.5 o-133 → 5.5 o-132
  • 5:53 PM 6.05 no change
  • 6:17 PM 6.05 no change
  • 6:45 PM 6.05 MTL lineup: Patrick Friolet Oct 25 6:39 PM; WPG lineup: Winnipeg Jets Oct 25 6:43 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: WPG projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (WPG 2.92); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. The 6.05 total looks high, but most of it comes from MTL; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, MTL is great (2.23) and WPG is mid (1.94); on the power play, MTL is bad (0.52) and WPG is great (0.67). MTL faces Stuart Skinner, a Mid goalie, grade 54 (-2.5%); WPG faces Jacob Fowler, a Good goalie, grade 64 (-3.4%). Other factors: MTL's team speed adds 4.0%; injuries cost MTL 5.1%; WPG's team speed costs 4.0%. MTL 3.13: 0.00 goals below what an average team would score (3.13). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.19 (its attack ranks #9 of 32, WPG's defense #22); team speed +0.13 (it skates faster than WPG, +4.0%). Holding it back: injuries -0.17 (missing players on both teams, net, -5.1%); Stuart Skinner in goal -0.08 (a Mid goalie, grade 54, -2.5%); power play -0.06 (its power play ranks #27, WPG's penalty kill and penalty habits #14). WPG 2.92: 0.22 goals below what an average team would score (3.13). Pushing it up: power play +0.09 (its power play ranks #21, MTL's penalty kill and penalty habits #30); injuries +0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.5%). Holding it back: team speed -0.12 (it skates slower than MTL, -4.0%); Jacob Fowler in goal -0.10 (a Good goalie, grade 64, -3.4%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.10 (its attack ranks #22 of 32, MTL's defense #15). The model projects 6.05 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 6.5 to 5.5, toward the under. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 3 goals (MTL 2, WPG 1), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.
FLA#12 OFF / #14 DEF33.39●5U 6.56.0343%6.5 → 6.53:00 PM ET
AVOID
✓ under		A. Schmid ✓ Trash 152.220.77-2.1%0.51–+0.3%-1.4%
CHI#32 OFF / #27 DEF22.64●S. Knight ✓ Mid 491.630.47+1.2%0.51–-0.4%+0.7%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
FLA1.92#23 of 322.35#31 of 322.22goals0.78#1 of 320.55#12 of 320.77goals
CHI1.74#31 of 321.90#7 of 321.63goals0.44#32 of 320.59#19 of 320.47goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-gamePlayerIf outPre-game
FLASam Reinhart C-3.7%PlaysNiko Mikkola D+0.9%Plays
Matthew Tkachuk L-3.2%PlaysCarter Verhaeghe C+0.8%Plays
Carter Verhaeghe C-3.1%PlaysSam Reinhart C+0.7%Plays
Sam Bennett C-3.1%PlaysUvis Balinskis D+0.7%OUT · scratch
Brady Tkachuk L-1.8%PlaysSam Bennett C+0.7%Plays
CHITyler Bertuzzi L-2.3%PlaysTyler Bertuzzi L+0.4%Plays
Connor Bedard C-1.9%PlaysAndrew Mangiapane L+0.4%Plays
Patrick Kane R-1.1%PlaysPatrick Kane R+0.3%Plays
Frank Nazar C-0.7%PlaysOliver Moore C+0.3%OUT · scratch
Ryan Donato C-0.7%PlaysSam Rinzel D+0.3%Plays

Also out: FLA: Brad Marchand -1.7% attack

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (5.97 → 6.03)
  • 12:02 AM 5.97 first run
  • 12:54 AM 5.97 CHI goalie Spencer Knight: Projected → Likely; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o+102
  • 4:55 AM 5.97 no change
  • 11:18 AM 6.03 +0.06Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.04; Injuries / lineup: Uvis Balinskis (FLA) out +0.02
  • 12:17 PM 6.03 Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o+104
  • 1:18 PM 6.03 Line 6.5 o+104 → 6.5 o+102
  • 2:17 PM 6.03 no change
  • 2:27 PM 6.03 no change
  • 2:45 PM 6.03 FLA lineup: Jameson Olive Oct 25 2:37 PM; CHI goalie Spencer Knight: Likely → Confirmed; CHI lineup: Jeff Bushman Oct 25 2:37 PM; Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o+105

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: CHI projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (CHI 2.64). The 6.03 total looks high, but most of it comes from FLA; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, FLA is great (2.22) and CHI is trash (1.63); on the power play, FLA is great (0.77) and CHI is bad (0.47). FLA faces Spencer Knight, a Mid goalie, grade 49 (-2.1%); CHI faces Akira Schmid, a Trash goalie, grade 15 (+1.2%). FLA 3.39: 0.25 goals above what an average team would score (3.13). Pushing it up: power play +0.20 (its power play ranks #1, CHI's penalty kill and penalty habits #12); 5-on-5 matchup +0.17 (its attack ranks #23 of 32, CHI's defense #31). Holding it back: Spencer Knight in goal -0.08 (a Mid goalie, grade 49, -2.1%); injuries -0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.4%). CHI 2.64: 0.49 goals below what an average team would score (3.13). Pushing it up: Akira Schmid in goal +0.03 (a Trash goalie, grade 15, +1.2%); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.7%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.42 (its attack ranks #31 of 32, FLA's defense #7); power play -0.11 (its power play ranks #32, FLA's penalty kill and penalty habits #19); team speed -0.01 (it skates slower than FLA, -0.4%). The model projects 6.03 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 43% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (FLA 3, CHI 2), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.
NYI#22 OFF / #11 DEF32.86●9O 5.55.7443%5.5 → 5.56:00 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over		I. Sorokin ✓ Strong 931.810.56-4.5%0.51–+4.4%-0.5%
DAL#23 OFF / #2 DEF62.88●J. Oettinger ✓ Good 741.940.74-8.4%0.53–-4.4%+2.9%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
NYI1.98#19 of 321.86#2 of 321.81goals0.54#22 of 320.58#16 of 320.56goals
DAL1.90#25 of 322.08#20 of 321.94goals0.63#8 of 320.65#27 of 320.74goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-gamePlayerIf outPre-game
NYIBo Horvat C-2.9%PlaysMatthew Schaefer D+1.1%Plays
Matthew Schaefer D-2.1%PlaysEmil Heineman L+0.7%Plays
Mathew Barzal C-1.6%OUT · IRMathew Barzal C+0.7%OUT · IR
Brayden Schenn C-1.0%PlaysOndrej Palat L+0.6%Plays
Simon Holmstrom R-0.9%PlaysBrayden Schenn C+0.5%Plays
DALJason Robertson L-5.5%PlaysJason Robertson L+1.6%Plays
Wyatt Johnston C-4.2%PlaysMiro Heiskanen D+1.4%Plays
Mikko Rantanen R-4.1%PlaysMikko Rantanen R+1.1%Plays
Roope Hintz C-2.7%PlaysThomas Harley D+1.1%Plays
Miro Heiskanen D-1.7%PlaysNils Lundkvist D+1.0%Plays

Also out: DAL: Matt Duchene -1.2% attack, +0.3% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (5.67 → 5.74)
  • 12:02 AM 5.67 first run
  • 12:54 AM 5.84 +0.17NYI goalie: Ilya Sorokin → Semyon Varlamov +0.17; DAL goalie Jake Oettinger: Projected → Likely
  • 4:55 AM 5.67 -0.17NYI goalie: Semyon Varlamov → Ilya Sorokin -0.17
  • 11:18 AM 5.71 +0.04Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.04; Line 5.5 o-105 → 5.5 o-104
  • 12:17 PM 5.71 no change
  • 1:18 PM 5.71 Line 5.5 o-104 → 5.5 o-102
  • 2:17 PM 5.71 NYI goalie Ilya Sorokin: Likely → Confirmed
  • 2:27 PM 5.71 no change
  • 2:45 PM 5.71 Line 5.5 o-102 → 5.5 o-100
  • 3:18 PM 5.71 no change
  • 4:17 PM 5.71 Line 5.5 o-100 → 5.5 o+105
  • 5:17 PM 5.74 +0.03Injuries / lineup: Radek Faksa (DAL) out +0.03; DAL goalie Jake Oettinger: Likely → Confirmed; David Perron (DAL) off day-to-day; Line 5.5 o+105 → 5.5 o+110
  • 5:45 PM 5.74 NYI lineup: Stefen Rosner Oct 25 5:36 PM; DAL lineup: Robert Tiffin Oct 25 5:37 PM
  • 5:53 PM 5.74 no change

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: NYI and DAL project under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (NYI 2.86, DAL 2.88); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, NYI is trash (1.81) and DAL is bad (1.94); on the power play, NYI is mid (0.56) and DAL is great (0.74). NYI faces Jake Oettinger, a Good goalie, grade 74 (-4.5%); DAL faces Ilya Sorokin, a Strong goalie, grade 93 (-8.4%). Other factors: NYI's team speed adds 4.4%; DAL's team speed costs 4.4%; injuries help DAL 2.9%. NYI 2.86: 0.28 goals below what an average team would score (3.13). Pushing it up: team speed +0.12 (it skates faster than DAL, +4.4%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.24 (its attack ranks #19 of 32, DAL's defense #2); Jake Oettinger in goal -0.13 (a Good goalie, grade 74, -4.5%); injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.5%); power play -0.01 (its power play ranks #22, DAL's penalty kill and penalty habits #16). DAL 2.88: 0.25 goals below what an average team would score (3.13). Pushing it up: power play +0.16 (its power play ranks #8, NYI's penalty kill and penalty habits #27); injuries +0.08 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.9%). Holding it back: Ilya Sorokin in goal -0.27 (a Strong goalie, grade 93, -8.4%); team speed -0.13 (it skates slower than NYI, -4.4%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.11 (its attack ranks #25 of 32, NYI's defense #20). The model projects 5.74 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 43% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 9 goals (NYI 3, DAL 6), so it went over 5.5 and the call was wrong.
8:00 PM ETAVOID
O 6.5 ✗ went over
COL#3 OFF / #4 DEF24.32●
S. Wedgewood ✓ Good 71
NSH#18 OFF / #24 DEF62.33●
J. Annunen ✓ OK 34
8 goals · proj 6.65 · P(7+) 44%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
COL2.780.54-0.9%0.50+6.5%+7.5%-0.1%
NSH1.770.53-4.0%0.53-8.0%-7.0%+0.2%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
COL2.60#1 of 322.18#26 of 322.78goals
NSH1.81#26 of 321.98#13 of 321.77goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
COL0.55#20 of 320.54#9 of 320.54goals
NSH0.58#15 of 320.50#5 of 320.53goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPre-game
COL
Nathan MacKinnon C-7.0%Plays
Martin Necas C-5.1%Plays
Cale Makar D-3.2%Plays
Artturi Lehkonen L-2.8%Plays
Brock Nelson C-2.8%Plays
NSH
Filip Forsberg L-4.1%Plays
Steven Stamkos C-3.9%Plays
Ryan O'Reilly C-3.0%Plays
Roman Josi D-1.5%Plays
Jonathan Marchessault R-1.2%Plays
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-game
COL
Martin Necas C+1.4%Plays
Sam Malinski D+1.4%Plays
Nathan MacKinnon C+1.3%Plays
Brett Kulak D+0.9%Plays
Cale Makar D+0.8%Plays
NSH
Filip Forsberg L+0.6%Plays
Steven Stamkos C+0.5%Plays
Adam Wilsby D+0.5%Plays
Roman Josi D+0.4%Plays
Ross Colton C+0.4%Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.62 → 6.65)
  • 12:02 AM 6.62 first run
  • 12:54 AM 6.62 COL goalie Mackenzie Blackwood: Projected → Likely; Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-120
  • 4:55 AM 6.62 NSH goalie Juuse Saros: Confirmed → Likely
  • 11:18 AM 6.70 +0.08Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.07; NSH goalie: Juuse Saros → Justus Annunen +0.01; NSH lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-24); Line 6.5 o-120 → 6.5 o-116
  • 12:17 PM 6.70 Line 6.5 o-116 → 6.5 o-115
  • 1:18 PM 6.65 -0.05COL goalie: Mackenzie Blackwood → Scott Wedgewood -0.05
  • 2:17 PM 6.65 NSH goalie Justus Annunen: Likely → Confirmed
  • 2:27 PM 6.65 Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-116
  • 2:45 PM 6.65 Line 6.5 o-116 → 6.5 o-118
  • 3:18 PM 6.65 no change
  • 4:17 PM 6.65 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.65 Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-115
  • 5:45 PM 6.65 Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-116
  • 5:53 PM 6.65 Line 6.5 o-116 → 6.5 o-117
  • 6:17 PM 6.65 no change
  • 6:45 PM 6.65 no change
  • 7:17 PM 6.65 Line 6.5 o-117 → 6.5 o-114
  • 7:45 PM 6.65 NSH lineup: Brooks Bratten Oct 25 7:39 PM; Line 6.5 o-114 → 6.5 o-110

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: NSH projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (NSH 2.33). The 6.65 total looks high, but most of it comes from COL; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, COL is great (2.78) and NSH is trash (1.77); on the power play, COL is mid (0.54) and NSH is bad (0.53). COL faces Justus Annunen, an OK goalie, grade 34 (-0.9%); NSH faces Scott Wedgewood, a Good goalie, grade 71 (-4.0%). Other factors: COL's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); COL's team speed adds 7.5%; NSH played yesterday (-8%); NSH's team speed costs 7.0%. COL 4.32: 1.19 goals above what an average team would score (3.13). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.73 (its attack ranks #1 of 32, NSH's defense #26); team speed +0.30 (it skates faster than NSH, +7.5%); back-to-back +0.25 (NSH played yesterday, +6.5%). Holding it back: power play -0.04 (its power play ranks #20, NSH's penalty kill and penalty habits #9); Justus Annunen in goal -0.03 (an OK goalie, grade 34, -0.9%). NSH 2.33: 0.81 goals below what an average team would score (3.13). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.28 (its attack ranks #26 of 32, COL's defense #13); back-to-back -0.22 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); team speed -0.18 (it skates slower than COL, -7.0%); Scott Wedgewood in goal -0.11 (a Good goalie, grade 71, -4.0%); power play -0.05 (its power play ranks #15, COL's penalty kill and penalty habits #5). The model projects 6.65 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 44% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 5.5 to 6.5, toward the over. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 8 goals (COL 2, NSH 6), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.
10:00 PM ETAVOID
U 6.5 ✓ under
MIN#2 OFF / #3 DEF43.59●
C. Pickard ✓ Trash 4
VAN#30 OFF / #32 DEF23.02●
L. Meriläinen ✓ Trash 8
6 goals · proj 6.61 · P(7+) 50%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
MIN2.470.78+2.5%0.52-8.0%+0.5%+0.4%
VAN1.640.61+3.5%0.50+6.5%-0.8%+0.2%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
MIN2.10#13 of 322.40#32 of 322.47goals
VAN1.76#30 of 321.91#8 of 321.64goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
MIN0.62#10 of 320.70#31 of 320.78goals
VAN0.57#17 of 320.59#19 of 320.61goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPre-game
MIN
Kirill Kaprizov L-6.0%Plays
Matt Boldy L-4.8%Plays
Joel Eriksson Ek C-2.9%Plays
Quinn Hughes D-2.7%Plays
Ryan Hartman R-0.8%Plays
VAN
Brock Boeser R-1.8%Plays
Elias Pettersson C-1.7%Plays
Jake DeBrusk L-1.7%Plays
Marco Rossi C-1.1%Plays
Linus Karlsson C-1.0%Plays
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-game
MIN
Quinn Hughes D+2.1%Plays
Kirill Kaprizov L+1.7%Plays
Matt Boldy L+1.1%Plays
Bobby Brink R+1.1%Plays
Jared Spurgeon D+0.9%Plays
VAN
Linus Karlsson C+0.7%Plays
Jake DeBrusk L+0.5%Plays
Marco Rossi C+0.4%Plays
Tom Willander D+0.4%Plays
Elias Pettersson C+0.4%Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.35 → 6.61)
  • 12:02 AM 6.35 first run
  • 12:54 AM 6.53 +0.18MIN goalie: Jesper Wallstedt → Calvin Pickard +0.18; VAN goalie Leevi Merilainen: Projected → Likely
  • 4:55 AM 6.53 MIN goalie Calvin Pickard: Conflict → Confirmed
  • 11:18 AM 6.60 +0.07Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.07; MIN lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-24); Line 6.5 o-106 → 6.5 o-110
  • 12:17 PM 6.60 no change
  • 1:18 PM 6.60 no change
  • 2:17 PM 6.60 VAN goalie Leevi Merilainen: Likely → Confirmed; VAN lineup: Ben Kuzma Oct 25 1:34 PM; Line 6.5 o-110 → 6.5 o-113
  • 2:27 PM 6.60 no change
  • 2:45 PM 6.60 no change
  • 3:18 PM 6.60 no change
  • 4:17 PM 6.60 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.60 Line 6.5 o-113 → 6.5 o-110
  • 5:45 PM 6.60 Line 6.5 o-110 → 6.5 o-115
  • 5:53 PM 6.60 no change
  • 6:17 PM 6.60 no change
  • 6:45 PM 6.60 no change
  • 7:17 PM 6.60 no change
  • 7:45 PM 6.60 no change
  • 8:18 PM 6.60 no change
  • 8:28 PM 6.60 no change
  • 9:17 PM 6.60 no change
  • 9:45 PM 6.61 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Paul Cotter (VAN) out +0.01; VAN lineup: Brendan Batchelor Oct 25 9:40 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: VAN projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (VAN 3.02). VAN just misses the cutoff (by 0.08), and the rule needs both teams over it, so the 6.61 total isn't enough on its own. At 5-on-5, MIN is great (2.47) and VAN is trash (1.64); on the power play, MIN is great (0.78) and VAN is good (0.61). MIN faces Leevi Merilainen, a Trash goalie, grade 8 (+2.5%); VAN faces Calvin Pickard, a Trash goalie, grade 4 (+3.5%). Other factors: MIN played yesterday (-8%); VAN's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%). MIN 3.59: 0.45 goals above what an average team would score (3.13). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.42 (its attack ranks #13 of 32, VAN's defense #32); power play +0.21 (its power play ranks #10, VAN's penalty kill and penalty habits #31); Leevi Merilainen in goal +0.10 (a Trash goalie, grade 8, +2.5%); team speed +0.02 (it skates faster than VAN, +0.5%); injuries +0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.4%). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.31 (it played yesterday, -8.0%). VAN 3.02: 0.12 goals below what an average team would score (3.13). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.19 (MIN played yesterday, +6.5%); Calvin Pickard in goal +0.10 (a Trash goalie, grade 4, +3.5%); power play +0.03 (its power play ranks #17, MIN's penalty kill and penalty habits #19). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.40 (its attack ranks #30 of 32, MIN's defense #8); team speed -0.03 (it skates slower than MIN, -0.8%). The model projects 6.61 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 50% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 6 goals (MIN 4, VAN 2), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.
7:00 PM ETAVOID
U 5.5 ✓ under
MTL#15 OFF / #22 DEF23.13●
J. Fowler ✓ Good 64
WPG#25 OFF / #20 DEF12.92●
S. Skinner ✓ Mid 54
3 goals · proj 6.05 · P(7+) 45%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
MTL2.230.52-2.5%0.51–+4.0%-5.1%
WPG1.940.67-3.4%0.52–-4.0%+0.5%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
MTL2.13#9 of 322.14#22 of 322.23goals
WPG1.95#22 of 322.03#15 of 321.94goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
MTL0.50#27 of 320.57#14 of 320.52goals
WPG0.54#21 of 320.68#30 of 320.67goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPre-game
MTL
Cole Caufield R-5.3%Plays
Nick Suzuki C-4.9%OUT
Juraj Slafkovský L-3.3%Plays
Lane Hutson D-2.4%Plays
Ivan Demidov R-1.6%OUT · IR
WPG
Kyle Connor L-4.9%Plays
Mark Scheifele C-4.5%Plays
Gabriel Vilardi C-2.9%Plays
Cole Perfetti C-1.6%Plays
Josh Morrissey D-1.1%OUT · IR
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-game
MTL
Lane Hutson D+2.0%Plays
Zachary Bolduc R+1.3%Plays
Cole Caufield R+1.2%Plays
Nick Suzuki C+1.1%OUT
Juraj Slafkovský L+0.8%Plays
WPG
Cole Perfetti C+1.3%Plays
Josh Morrissey D+0.9%OUT · IR
Nino Niederreiter R+0.8%Plays
Alex Iafallo L+0.7%Plays
Gabriel Vilardi C+0.6%Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.01 → 6.05)
  • 12:02 AM 6.01 first run
  • 12:54 AM 6.08 +0.07WPG goalie: Stuart Skinner → Clay Stevenson +0.06; MTL goalie: Jacob Fowler → Jakub Dobes +0.01; Line 5.5 o-128 → 5.5 o-127
  • 4:55 AM 6.02 -0.06WPG goalie: Clay Stevenson → Stuart Skinner -0.06; Line 5.5 o-127 → 5.5 o-131
  • 11:18 AM 6.06 +0.04Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.04; Line 5.5 o-131 → 5.5 o-132
  • 12:17 PM 6.06 no change
  • 1:18 PM 6.06 WPG goalie Stuart Skinner: Likely → Confirmed
  • 2:17 PM 6.06 no change
  • 2:27 PM 6.06 no change
  • 2:45 PM 6.06 no change
  • 3:18 PM 6.06 no change
  • 4:17 PM 6.06 Nino Niederreiter (WPG) off day-to-day
  • 5:17 PM 6.05 -0.01MTL goalie: Jakub Dobes → Jacob Fowler -0.01; Line 5.5 o-132 → 5.5 o-133
  • 5:45 PM 6.05 Line 5.5 o-133 → 5.5 o-132
  • 5:53 PM 6.05 no change
  • 6:17 PM 6.05 no change
  • 6:45 PM 6.05 MTL lineup: Patrick Friolet Oct 25 6:39 PM; WPG lineup: Winnipeg Jets Oct 25 6:43 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: WPG projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (WPG 2.92); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. The 6.05 total looks high, but most of it comes from MTL; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, MTL is great (2.23) and WPG is mid (1.94); on the power play, MTL is bad (0.52) and WPG is great (0.67). MTL faces Stuart Skinner, a Mid goalie, grade 54 (-2.5%); WPG faces Jacob Fowler, a Good goalie, grade 64 (-3.4%). Other factors: MTL's team speed adds 4.0%; injuries cost MTL 5.1%; WPG's team speed costs 4.0%. MTL 3.13: 0.00 goals below what an average team would score (3.13). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.19 (its attack ranks #9 of 32, WPG's defense #22); team speed +0.13 (it skates faster than WPG, +4.0%). Holding it back: injuries -0.17 (missing players on both teams, net, -5.1%); Stuart Skinner in goal -0.08 (a Mid goalie, grade 54, -2.5%); power play -0.06 (its power play ranks #27, WPG's penalty kill and penalty habits #14). WPG 2.92: 0.22 goals below what an average team would score (3.13). Pushing it up: power play +0.09 (its power play ranks #21, MTL's penalty kill and penalty habits #30); injuries +0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.5%). Holding it back: team speed -0.12 (it skates slower than MTL, -4.0%); Jacob Fowler in goal -0.10 (a Good goalie, grade 64, -3.4%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.10 (its attack ranks #22 of 32, MTL's defense #15). The model projects 6.05 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 6.5 to 5.5, toward the under. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 3 goals (MTL 2, WPG 1), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.
3:00 PM ETAVOID
U 6.5 ✓ under
FLA#12 OFF / #14 DEF33.39●
A. Schmid ✓ Trash 15
CHI#32 OFF / #27 DEF22.64●
S. Knight ✓ Mid 49
5 goals · proj 6.03 · P(7+) 43%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
FLA2.220.77-2.1%0.51–+0.3%-1.4%
CHI1.630.47+1.2%0.51–-0.4%+0.7%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
FLA1.92#23 of 322.35#31 of 322.22goals
CHI1.74#31 of 321.90#7 of 321.63goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
FLA0.78#1 of 320.55#12 of 320.77goals
CHI0.44#32 of 320.59#19 of 320.47goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPre-game
FLA
Sam Reinhart C-3.7%Plays
Matthew Tkachuk L-3.2%Plays
Carter Verhaeghe C-3.1%Plays
Sam Bennett C-3.1%Plays
Brady Tkachuk L-1.8%Plays
CHI
Tyler Bertuzzi L-2.3%Plays
Connor Bedard C-1.9%Plays
Patrick Kane R-1.1%Plays
Frank Nazar C-0.7%Plays
Ryan Donato C-0.7%Plays
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-game
FLA
Niko Mikkola D+0.9%Plays
Carter Verhaeghe C+0.8%Plays
Sam Reinhart C+0.7%Plays
Uvis Balinskis D+0.7%OUT · scratch
Sam Bennett C+0.7%Plays
CHI
Tyler Bertuzzi L+0.4%Plays
Andrew Mangiapane L+0.4%Plays
Patrick Kane R+0.3%Plays
Oliver Moore C+0.3%OUT · scratch
Sam Rinzel D+0.3%Plays

Also out: FLA: Brad Marchand -1.7% attack

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (5.97 → 6.03)
  • 12:02 AM 5.97 first run
  • 12:54 AM 5.97 CHI goalie Spencer Knight: Projected → Likely; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o+102
  • 4:55 AM 5.97 no change
  • 11:18 AM 6.03 +0.06Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.04; Injuries / lineup: Uvis Balinskis (FLA) out +0.02
  • 12:17 PM 6.03 Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o+104
  • 1:18 PM 6.03 Line 6.5 o+104 → 6.5 o+102
  • 2:17 PM 6.03 no change
  • 2:27 PM 6.03 no change
  • 2:45 PM 6.03 FLA lineup: Jameson Olive Oct 25 2:37 PM; CHI goalie Spencer Knight: Likely → Confirmed; CHI lineup: Jeff Bushman Oct 25 2:37 PM; Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o+105

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: CHI projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (CHI 2.64). The 6.03 total looks high, but most of it comes from FLA; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, FLA is great (2.22) and CHI is trash (1.63); on the power play, FLA is great (0.77) and CHI is bad (0.47). FLA faces Spencer Knight, a Mid goalie, grade 49 (-2.1%); CHI faces Akira Schmid, a Trash goalie, grade 15 (+1.2%). FLA 3.39: 0.25 goals above what an average team would score (3.13). Pushing it up: power play +0.20 (its power play ranks #1, CHI's penalty kill and penalty habits #12); 5-on-5 matchup +0.17 (its attack ranks #23 of 32, CHI's defense #31). Holding it back: Spencer Knight in goal -0.08 (a Mid goalie, grade 49, -2.1%); injuries -0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.4%). CHI 2.64: 0.49 goals below what an average team would score (3.13). Pushing it up: Akira Schmid in goal +0.03 (a Trash goalie, grade 15, +1.2%); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.7%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.42 (its attack ranks #31 of 32, FLA's defense #7); power play -0.11 (its power play ranks #32, FLA's penalty kill and penalty habits #19); team speed -0.01 (it skates slower than FLA, -0.4%). The model projects 6.03 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 43% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (FLA 3, CHI 2), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.
6:00 PM ETAVOID
O 5.5 ✗ went over
NYI#22 OFF / #11 DEF32.86●
I. Sorokin ✓ Strong 93
DAL#23 OFF / #2 DEF62.88●
J. Oettinger ✓ Good 74
9 goals · proj 5.74 · P(7+) 43%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
NYI1.810.56-4.5%0.51–+4.4%-0.5%
DAL1.940.74-8.4%0.53–-4.4%+2.9%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
NYI1.98#19 of 321.86#2 of 321.81goals
DAL1.90#25 of 322.08#20 of 321.94goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
NYI0.54#22 of 320.58#16 of 320.56goals
DAL0.63#8 of 320.65#27 of 320.74goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPre-game
NYI
Bo Horvat C-2.9%Plays
Matthew Schaefer D-2.1%Plays
Mathew Barzal C-1.6%OUT · IR
Brayden Schenn C-1.0%Plays
Simon Holmstrom R-0.9%Plays
DAL
Jason Robertson L-5.5%Plays
Wyatt Johnston C-4.2%Plays
Mikko Rantanen R-4.1%Plays
Roope Hintz C-2.7%Plays
Miro Heiskanen D-1.7%Plays
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-game
NYI
Matthew Schaefer D+1.1%Plays
Emil Heineman L+0.7%Plays
Mathew Barzal C+0.7%OUT · IR
Ondrej Palat L+0.6%Plays
Brayden Schenn C+0.5%Plays
DAL
Jason Robertson L+1.6%Plays
Miro Heiskanen D+1.4%Plays
Mikko Rantanen R+1.1%Plays
Thomas Harley D+1.1%Plays
Nils Lundkvist D+1.0%Plays

Also out: DAL: Matt Duchene -1.2% attack, +0.3% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (5.67 → 5.74)
  • 12:02 AM 5.67 first run
  • 12:54 AM 5.84 +0.17NYI goalie: Ilya Sorokin → Semyon Varlamov +0.17; DAL goalie Jake Oettinger: Projected → Likely
  • 4:55 AM 5.67 -0.17NYI goalie: Semyon Varlamov → Ilya Sorokin -0.17
  • 11:18 AM 5.71 +0.04Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.04; Line 5.5 o-105 → 5.5 o-104
  • 12:17 PM 5.71 no change
  • 1:18 PM 5.71 Line 5.5 o-104 → 5.5 o-102
  • 2:17 PM 5.71 NYI goalie Ilya Sorokin: Likely → Confirmed
  • 2:27 PM 5.71 no change
  • 2:45 PM 5.71 Line 5.5 o-102 → 5.5 o-100
  • 3:18 PM 5.71 no change
  • 4:17 PM 5.71 Line 5.5 o-100 → 5.5 o+105
  • 5:17 PM 5.74 +0.03Injuries / lineup: Radek Faksa (DAL) out +0.03; DAL goalie Jake Oettinger: Likely → Confirmed; David Perron (DAL) off day-to-day; Line 5.5 o+105 → 5.5 o+110
  • 5:45 PM 5.74 NYI lineup: Stefen Rosner Oct 25 5:36 PM; DAL lineup: Robert Tiffin Oct 25 5:37 PM
  • 5:53 PM 5.74 no change

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: NYI and DAL project under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (NYI 2.86, DAL 2.88); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, NYI is trash (1.81) and DAL is bad (1.94); on the power play, NYI is mid (0.56) and DAL is great (0.74). NYI faces Jake Oettinger, a Good goalie, grade 74 (-4.5%); DAL faces Ilya Sorokin, a Strong goalie, grade 93 (-8.4%). Other factors: NYI's team speed adds 4.4%; DAL's team speed costs 4.4%; injuries help DAL 2.9%. NYI 2.86: 0.28 goals below what an average team would score (3.13). Pushing it up: team speed +0.12 (it skates faster than DAL, +4.4%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.24 (its attack ranks #19 of 32, DAL's defense #2); Jake Oettinger in goal -0.13 (a Good goalie, grade 74, -4.5%); injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.5%); power play -0.01 (its power play ranks #22, DAL's penalty kill and penalty habits #16). DAL 2.88: 0.25 goals below what an average team would score (3.13). Pushing it up: power play +0.16 (its power play ranks #8, NYI's penalty kill and penalty habits #27); injuries +0.08 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.9%). Holding it back: Ilya Sorokin in goal -0.27 (a Strong goalie, grade 93, -8.4%); team speed -0.13 (it skates slower than NYI, -4.4%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.11 (its attack ranks #25 of 32, NYI's defense #20). The model projects 5.74 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 43% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 9 goals (NYI 3, DAL 6), so it went over 5.5 and the call was wrong.

Two rows per game (away, then home). ● = team projected high-scoring. Proj = (5v5 + PP + Oth) × goalie (Gl) × back-to-back (B2B) × team speed (Spd) × injuries (Inj). Hover or tap any underlined label for an explanation.