Wednesday, October 28, 2026

4 games · 1 flag · 3 of 4 went over the line · avg 6.8 goals (projected 6.3) · flags 1-0-0 (+0.82u at close) · calls: 🔨 SLAM 1-0-0 · 1U – · PASS – · AVOID 1 of 3 stayed under

Breakdown (for scoring):greatgoodmidbadtrash
TeamResultGoaliesProjection breakdown
TeamGProjTotal goalsProj totalP(7+)LinePickGoalie5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
TOR#18 OFF / #29 DEF43.28●9O 6.56.5752%6.5 → 6.510:00 PM ET
🔨 SLAM
W
paper W +0.82u		S. Bobrovsky ✓ Mid 412.250.58+2.0%0.52–+0.2%-3.9%
SEA#29 OFF / #30 DEF53.29●P. Grubauer ✓ Trash 102.210.62-1.5%0.52–-0.5%–
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
TOR2.06#15 of 322.23#28 of 322.25goals0.60#12 of 320.53#7 of 320.58goals
SEA2.06#15 of 322.19#27 of 322.21goals0.52#25 of 320.66#28 of 320.62goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-gamePlayerIf outPre-game
TORWilliam Nylander R-4.7%PlaysDarren Raddysh D+0.6%Plays
Auston Matthews C-4.2%PlaysJack Roslovic C+0.5%Plays
John Tavares C-2.7%OUT · IRKirill Marchenko R+0.4%OUT
Kirill Marchenko R-1.7%OUTNick Paul L+0.4%Plays
Darren Raddysh D-1.4%PlaysOliver Ekman-Larsson D+0.3%Plays
SEAJordan Eberle R-2.0%PlaysJordan Eberle R+0.8%Plays
Jared McCann L-1.9%OUT · IRMatty Beniers C+0.8%Plays
Bobby McMann C-1.4%PlaysShane Wright C+0.8%Plays
Matty Beniers C-1.1%PlaysRyker Evans D+0.7%Plays
Kaapo Kakko R-0.9%PlaysBerkly Catton C+0.7%Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.51 → 6.57)
  • 12:02 AM 6.51 first run
  • 1:55 AM 6.51 TOR goalie Anthony Stolarz: Projected → Likely; SEA goalie Philipp Grubauer: Projected → Likely; Line 6.5 o-119 → 6.5 o-118
  • 6:19 AM 6.51 no change
  • 11:18 AM 6.51 Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-120
  • 12:18 PM 6.51 no change
  • 1:18 PM 6.51 no change
  • 2:18 PM 6.51 no change
  • 3:18 PM 6.57 +0.06TOR goalie: Anthony Stolarz → Sergei Bobrovsky +0.10; Injuries / lineup: Kirill Marchenko (TOR) out -0.04; TOR lineup: David Alter Oct 28 2:40 PM
  • 4:18 PM 6.57 TOR goalie Sergei Bobrovsky: Likely → Confirmed
  • 4:22 PM 6.57 no change
  • 5:18 PM 6.57 no change
  • 6:18 PM 6.57 no change
  • 7:18 PM 6.57 Line 6.5 o-120 → 6.5 o-121
  • 8:18 PM 6.57 no change
  • 8:46 PM 6.57 no change
  • 9:04 PM 6.57 no change
  • 9:18 PM 6.57 Line 6.5 o-121 → 6.5 o-120
  • 9:46 PM 6.57 TOR lineup: David Alter Oct 28 9:42 PM; SEA goalie Philipp Grubauer: Likely → Confirmed

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

🔨 SLAM: both teams project as high-scoring (TOR 3.28, SEA 3.29; cutoff 3.10), the line is 6.5, and both are good or better at 5-on-5, the strongest over spot the model has. At 5-on-5, TOR is great (2.25) and SEA is great (2.21); on the power play, TOR is mid (0.58) and SEA is good (0.62). TOR faces Philipp Grubauer, a Trash goalie, grade 10 (+2.0%); SEA faces Sergei Bobrovsky, a Mid goalie, grade 41 (-1.5%). Other factors: injuries cost TOR 3.9%. TOR 3.28: 0.14 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.20 (its attack ranks #15 of 32, SEA's defense #28); Philipp Grubauer in goal +0.07 (a Trash goalie, grade 10, +2.0%). Holding it back: injuries -0.13 (missing players on both teams, net, -3.9%). SEA 3.29: 0.15 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.17 (its attack ranks #15 of 32, TOR's defense #27); power play +0.04 (its power play ranks #25, TOR's penalty kill and penalty habits #28). Holding it back: Sergei Bobrovsky in goal -0.05 (a Mid goalie, grade 41, -1.5%); team speed -0.02 (it skates slower than TOR, -0.5%). The model projects 6.57 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 52% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over 55% of the time at the opening line and 56.5% at the closing line in 2021-26. Final: 9 goals (TOR 4, SEA 5), so it went over 6.5 and the call was right.
NJD#6 OFF / #6 DEF22.63●7O 6.56.3345%6.5 → 6.59:00 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over		J. Allen ✓ Mid 482.020.54-1.8%0.54-8.0%-5.7%-0.3%
COL#4 OFF / #7 DEF53.70●M. Blackwood ✓ Mid 462.340.46-2.0%0.51+6.5%+6.3%+0.6%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
NJD2.08#13 of 321.98#13 of 322.02goals0.58#16 of 320.51#5 of 320.54goals
COL2.56#1 of 321.86#4 of 322.34goals0.54#21 of 320.48#2 of 320.46goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-gamePlayerIf outPre-game
NJDJack Hughes C-4.2%PlaysJack Hughes C+1.3%Plays
Nico Hischier C-3.6%PlaysLuke Hughes D+1.2%Plays
Jesper Bratt L-3.4%PlaysJesper Bratt L+1.0%Plays
Timo Meier R-1.8%PlaysDougie Hamilton D+1.0%Plays
Dougie Hamilton D-1.4%PlaysArseny Gritsyuk R+1.0%Plays
COLNathan MacKinnon C-6.9%PlaysMartin Necas C+1.4%Plays
Martin Necas C-5.1%PlaysSam Malinski D+1.3%Plays
Cale Makar D-3.2%PlaysNathan MacKinnon C+1.3%Plays
Artturi Lehkonen L-2.9%PlaysBrett Kulak D+0.9%Plays
Brock Nelson C-2.7%PlaysCale Makar D+0.9%Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.09 → 6.33)
  • 12:02 AM 6.09 first run
  • 1:55 AM 6.33 +0.24NJD goalie: Connor Hellebuyck → Jake Allen +0.24; COL goalie Mackenzie Blackwood: Projected → Likely; Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o+100
  • 6:19 AM 6.33 NJD goalie Jake Allen: Conflict → Confirmed
  • 11:18 AM 6.33 NJD lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-27); Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o-100
  • 12:18 PM 6.33 no change
  • 1:18 PM 6.33 COL goalie Mackenzie Blackwood: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o+100
  • 2:18 PM 6.33 Nicolas Roy (COL) off day-to-day; COL lineup: Bailey Curtis Oct 28 1:25 PM; Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o-100
  • 3:18 PM 6.33 Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o-103
  • 4:18 PM 6.33 Line 6.5 o-103 → 6.5 o-104
  • 4:22 PM 6.33 no change
  • 5:18 PM 6.33 no change
  • 6:18 PM 6.33 Line 6.5 o-104 → 6.5 o-103
  • 7:18 PM 6.33 Injuries / lineup: Johnathan Kovacevic (NJD) out, Declan Chisholm (NJD) back in -0.00
  • 8:18 PM 6.33 no change
  • 8:46 PM 6.33 no change

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: NJD projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (NJD 2.63). The 6.33 total looks high, but most of it comes from COL; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, NJD is mid (2.02) and COL is great (2.34); on the power play, NJD is mid (0.54) and COL is bad (0.46). NJD faces Mackenzie Blackwood, a Mid goalie, grade 46 (-1.8%); COL faces Jake Allen, a Mid goalie, grade 48 (-2.0%). Other factors: NJD played yesterday (-8%); NJD's team speed costs 5.7%; COL's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); COL's team speed adds 6.3%. NJD 2.63: 0.51 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.24 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); team speed -0.16 (it skates slower than COL, -5.7%); Mackenzie Blackwood in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 46, -1.8%); power play -0.04 (its power play ranks #16, COL's penalty kill and penalty habits #5); 5-on-5 matchup -0.03 (its attack ranks #13 of 32, COL's defense #13). COL 3.70: 0.56 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.30 (its attack ranks #1 of 32, NJD's defense #4); team speed +0.22 (it skates faster than NJD, +6.3%); back-to-back +0.21 (NJD played yesterday, +6.5%); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.6%). Holding it back: power play -0.11 (its power play ranks #21, NJD's penalty kill and penalty habits #2); Jake Allen in goal -0.07 (a Mid goalie, grade 48, -2.0%). The model projects 6.33 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (NJD 2, COL 5), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.
PHI#31 OFF / #19 DEF22.40●7O 5.56.2442%5.5 → 5.57:30 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over		J. Woll ✓ Mid 581.750.63-8.1%0.54-8.0%-1.3%-1.5%
WSH#10 OFF / #24 DEF53.83●L. Thompson ✓ Strong 922.460.58-2.8%0.51+6.5%+1.5%+2.6%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
PHI1.64#32 of 322.17#25 of 321.75goals0.52#23 of 320.67#29 of 320.63goals
WSH2.31#4 of 322.17#23 of 322.46goals0.51#26 of 320.63#25 of 320.58goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-gamePlayerIf outPre-game
PHITrevor Zegras C-2.3%PlaysJamie Drysdale D+1.2%Plays
Matvei Michkov R-2.3%PlaysMatvei Michkov R+1.0%Plays
Travis Konecny R-1.4%OUT · IRNoah Cates L+1.0%Plays
Owen Tippett R-1.4%OUT · IRTrevor Zegras C+1.0%Plays
Tyson Foerster R-0.8%PlaysOwen Tippett R+0.9%OUT · IR
WSHAlex Ovechkin L-3.4%PlaysJakob Chychrun D+1.1%Plays
Tom Wilson R-3.0%PlaysJustin Sourdif C+0.7%Plays
Dylan Strome C-3.0%PlaysDylan Strome C+0.6%Plays
Jakob Chychrun D-2.5%PlaysRyan Leonard R+0.6%Plays
Ryan Leonard R-1.7%PlaysRasmus Sandin D+0.5%OUT · IR

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.30 → 6.24)
  • 12:02 AM 6.30 first run
  • 1:55 AM 6.51 +0.21WSH goalie: Logan Thompson → Charlie Lindgren +0.21
  • 6:19 AM 6.23 -0.27WSH goalie: Charlie Lindgren → Logan Thompson -0.21; PHI goalie: Dan Vladar → Joseph Woll -0.06
  • 11:18 AM 6.23 PHI lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-27); Line 6.5 o+105 → 6.5 o+108
  • 12:18 PM 6.23 Line 6.5 o+108 → 6.5 o+109
  • 1:18 PM 6.23 WSH goalie Logan Thompson: Likely → Confirmed; WSH lineup: Sammi Silber Oct 28 12:52 PM
  • 2:18 PM 6.23 Line 6.5 o+109 → 6.5 o+113
  • 3:18 PM 6.23 no change
  • 4:18 PM 6.23 Line 6.5 o+113 → 6.5 o-101
  • 4:22 PM 6.23 no change
  • 5:18 PM 6.23 Line 6.5 o-101 → 6 o-115
  • 6:18 PM 6.23 PHI goalie Joseph Woll: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6 o-115 → 6 o-127
  • 7:18 PM 6.24 Injuries / lineup: Michael Bunting (PHI) out +0.00; PHI lineup: Jackie Spiegel Oct 28 7:09 PM; WSH lineup: Sammi Silber Oct 28 7:11 PM; Line 6 o-127 → 5.5 o-125

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: PHI projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (PHI 2.40); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. The 6.24 total looks high, but most of it comes from WSH; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, PHI is trash (1.75) and WSH is great (2.46); on the power play, PHI is good (0.63) and WSH is mid (0.58). PHI faces Logan Thompson, a Strong goalie, grade 92 (-8.1%); WSH faces Joseph Woll, a Mid goalie, grade 58 (-2.8%). Other factors: PHI played yesterday (-8%); injuries cost PHI 1.5%; WSH's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); injuries help WSH 2.6%. PHI 2.40: 0.74 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: power play +0.05 (its power play ranks #23, WSH's penalty kill and penalty habits #29). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.30 (its attack ranks #32 of 32, WSH's defense #25); Logan Thompson in goal -0.24 (a Strong goalie, grade 92, -8.1%); back-to-back -0.21 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); injuries -0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.5%); team speed -0.03 (it skates slower than WSH, -1.3%). WSH 3.83: 0.69 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.42 (its attack ranks #4 of 32, PHI's defense #23); back-to-back +0.22 (PHI played yesterday, +6.5%); injuries +0.10 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.6%); team speed +0.06 (it skates faster than PHI, +1.5%). Holding it back: Joseph Woll in goal -0.10 (a Mid goalie, grade 58, -2.8%). The model projects 6.24 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 42% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 6.5 to 5.5, toward the under. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (PHI 2, WSH 5), so it went over 5.5 and the call was wrong.
CGY#26 OFF / #25 DEF02.61●4U 6.56.1343%6.5 → 6.58:30 PM ET
AVOID
✓ under		D. Cooley ✓ Good 731.730.48+2.4%0.52–-7.0%+0.2%
EDM#7 OFF / #17 DEF43.52●T. Jarry ✓ Trash 92.210.79-4.3%0.52–+7.1%-2.3%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
CGY1.81#28 of 321.95#11 of 321.73goals0.48#27 of 320.55#12 of 320.48goals
EDM2.07#14 of 322.17#24 of 322.21goals0.73#2 of 320.60#21 of 320.79goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-gamePlayerIf outPre-game
CGYMatt Coronato R-1.6%PlaysMorgan Frost C+0.8%Plays
Morgan Frost C-1.4%PlaysMatt Coronato R+0.4%Plays
Matvei Gridin R-0.7%PlaysAdam Klapka R+0.4%Plays
Joel Farabee L-0.6%PlaysRyan Strome C+0.4%Plays
Jonathan Huberdeau L-0.5%OUT · IRJoel Hanley D+0.4%OUT · scratch
EDMConnor McDavid C-8.2%PlaysLeon Draisaitl C+1.5%Plays
Leon Draisaitl C-7.0%PlaysConnor McDavid C+1.5%Plays
Evan Bouchard D-5.0%PlaysEvan Bouchard D+1.5%Plays
Zach Hyman L-2.8%OUT · IRVasily Podkolzin R+1.3%Plays
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C-1.8%PlaysZach Hyman L+0.6%OUT · IR

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.14 → 6.13)
  • 12:02 AM 6.14 first run
  • 1:55 AM 6.14 CGY goalie Devin Cooley: Projected → Likely; EDM goalie Tristan Jarry: Projected → Likely
  • 6:19 AM 6.14 Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-114
  • 11:18 AM 6.14 Line 6.5 o-114 → 6.5 o-115
  • 12:18 PM 6.14 no change
  • 1:18 PM 6.14 CGY goalie Devin Cooley: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-114
  • 2:18 PM 6.16 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Mattias Ekholm (EDM) back in +0.01; CGY lineup: Derek Wills Oct 28 1:54 PM; Mattias Ekholm (EDM) day-to-day; Line 6.5 o-114 → 6.5 o-115
  • 3:18 PM 6.16 EDM goalie Tristan Jarry: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-114
  • 4:18 PM 6.16 no change
  • 4:22 PM 6.16 no change
  • 5:18 PM 6.13 -0.02Injuries / lineup: Jason Dickinson (EDM) back in -0.02; Jason Dickinson (EDM) day-to-day
  • 6:18 PM 6.13 Line 6.5 o-114 → 6.5 o-115
  • 7:18 PM 6.13 Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-123
  • 8:18 PM 6.13 no change

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: CGY projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (CGY 2.61). The 6.13 total looks high, but most of it comes from EDM; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, CGY is trash (1.73) and EDM is great (2.21); on the power play, CGY is bad (0.48) and EDM is great (0.79). CGY faces Tristan Jarry, a Trash goalie, grade 9 (+2.4%); EDM faces Devin Cooley, a Good goalie, grade 73 (-4.3%). Other factors: CGY's team speed costs 7.0%; EDM's team speed adds 7.1%; injuries cost EDM 2.3%. CGY 2.61: 0.53 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: Tristan Jarry in goal +0.06 (a Trash goalie, grade 9, +2.4%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.31 (its attack ranks #28 of 32, EDM's defense #11); team speed -0.20 (it skates slower than EDM, -7.0%); power play -0.10 (its power play ranks #27, EDM's penalty kill and penalty habits #12). EDM 3.52: 0.38 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: team speed +0.24 (it skates faster than CGY, +7.1%); power play +0.21 (its power play ranks #2, CGY's penalty kill and penalty habits #21); 5-on-5 matchup +0.16 (its attack ranks #14 of 32, CGY's defense #24). Holding it back: Devin Cooley in goal -0.15 (a Good goalie, grade 73, -4.3%); injuries -0.08 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.3%). The model projects 6.13 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 43% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 4 goals (CGY 0, EDM 4), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.
10:00 PM ET🔨 SLAM
O 6.5 W
paper W +0.82u
TOR#18 OFF / #29 DEF43.28●
S. Bobrovsky ✓ Mid 41
SEA#29 OFF / #30 DEF53.29●
P. Grubauer ✓ Trash 10
9 goals · proj 6.57 · P(7+) 52%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
TOR2.250.58+2.0%0.52–+0.2%-3.9%
SEA2.210.62-1.5%0.52–-0.5%–
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
TOR2.06#15 of 322.23#28 of 322.25goals
SEA2.06#15 of 322.19#27 of 322.21goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
TOR0.60#12 of 320.53#7 of 320.58goals
SEA0.52#25 of 320.66#28 of 320.62goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPre-game
TOR
William Nylander R-4.7%Plays
Auston Matthews C-4.2%Plays
John Tavares C-2.7%OUT · IR
Kirill Marchenko R-1.7%OUT
Darren Raddysh D-1.4%Plays
SEA
Jordan Eberle R-2.0%Plays
Jared McCann L-1.9%OUT · IR
Bobby McMann C-1.4%Plays
Matty Beniers C-1.1%Plays
Kaapo Kakko R-0.9%Plays
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-game
TOR
Darren Raddysh D+0.6%Plays
Jack Roslovic C+0.5%Plays
Kirill Marchenko R+0.4%OUT
Nick Paul L+0.4%Plays
Oliver Ekman-Larsson D+0.3%Plays
SEA
Jordan Eberle R+0.8%Plays
Matty Beniers C+0.8%Plays
Shane Wright C+0.8%Plays
Ryker Evans D+0.7%Plays
Berkly Catton C+0.7%Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.51 → 6.57)
  • 12:02 AM 6.51 first run
  • 1:55 AM 6.51 TOR goalie Anthony Stolarz: Projected → Likely; SEA goalie Philipp Grubauer: Projected → Likely; Line 6.5 o-119 → 6.5 o-118
  • 6:19 AM 6.51 no change
  • 11:18 AM 6.51 Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-120
  • 12:18 PM 6.51 no change
  • 1:18 PM 6.51 no change
  • 2:18 PM 6.51 no change
  • 3:18 PM 6.57 +0.06TOR goalie: Anthony Stolarz → Sergei Bobrovsky +0.10; Injuries / lineup: Kirill Marchenko (TOR) out -0.04; TOR lineup: David Alter Oct 28 2:40 PM
  • 4:18 PM 6.57 TOR goalie Sergei Bobrovsky: Likely → Confirmed
  • 4:22 PM 6.57 no change
  • 5:18 PM 6.57 no change
  • 6:18 PM 6.57 no change
  • 7:18 PM 6.57 Line 6.5 o-120 → 6.5 o-121
  • 8:18 PM 6.57 no change
  • 8:46 PM 6.57 no change
  • 9:04 PM 6.57 no change
  • 9:18 PM 6.57 Line 6.5 o-121 → 6.5 o-120
  • 9:46 PM 6.57 TOR lineup: David Alter Oct 28 9:42 PM; SEA goalie Philipp Grubauer: Likely → Confirmed

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

🔨 SLAM: both teams project as high-scoring (TOR 3.28, SEA 3.29; cutoff 3.10), the line is 6.5, and both are good or better at 5-on-5, the strongest over spot the model has. At 5-on-5, TOR is great (2.25) and SEA is great (2.21); on the power play, TOR is mid (0.58) and SEA is good (0.62). TOR faces Philipp Grubauer, a Trash goalie, grade 10 (+2.0%); SEA faces Sergei Bobrovsky, a Mid goalie, grade 41 (-1.5%). Other factors: injuries cost TOR 3.9%. TOR 3.28: 0.14 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.20 (its attack ranks #15 of 32, SEA's defense #28); Philipp Grubauer in goal +0.07 (a Trash goalie, grade 10, +2.0%). Holding it back: injuries -0.13 (missing players on both teams, net, -3.9%). SEA 3.29: 0.15 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.17 (its attack ranks #15 of 32, TOR's defense #27); power play +0.04 (its power play ranks #25, TOR's penalty kill and penalty habits #28). Holding it back: Sergei Bobrovsky in goal -0.05 (a Mid goalie, grade 41, -1.5%); team speed -0.02 (it skates slower than TOR, -0.5%). The model projects 6.57 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 52% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over 55% of the time at the opening line and 56.5% at the closing line in 2021-26. Final: 9 goals (TOR 4, SEA 5), so it went over 6.5 and the call was right.
9:00 PM ETAVOID
O 6.5 ✗ went over
NJD#6 OFF / #6 DEF22.63●
J. Allen ✓ Mid 48
COL#4 OFF / #7 DEF53.70●
M. Blackwood ✓ Mid 46
7 goals · proj 6.33 · P(7+) 45%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
NJD2.020.54-1.8%0.54-8.0%-5.7%-0.3%
COL2.340.46-2.0%0.51+6.5%+6.3%+0.6%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
NJD2.08#13 of 321.98#13 of 322.02goals
COL2.56#1 of 321.86#4 of 322.34goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
NJD0.58#16 of 320.51#5 of 320.54goals
COL0.54#21 of 320.48#2 of 320.46goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPre-game
NJD
Jack Hughes C-4.2%Plays
Nico Hischier C-3.6%Plays
Jesper Bratt L-3.4%Plays
Timo Meier R-1.8%Plays
Dougie Hamilton D-1.4%Plays
COL
Nathan MacKinnon C-6.9%Plays
Martin Necas C-5.1%Plays
Cale Makar D-3.2%Plays
Artturi Lehkonen L-2.9%Plays
Brock Nelson C-2.7%Plays
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-game
NJD
Jack Hughes C+1.3%Plays
Luke Hughes D+1.2%Plays
Jesper Bratt L+1.0%Plays
Dougie Hamilton D+1.0%Plays
Arseny Gritsyuk R+1.0%Plays
COL
Martin Necas C+1.4%Plays
Sam Malinski D+1.3%Plays
Nathan MacKinnon C+1.3%Plays
Brett Kulak D+0.9%Plays
Cale Makar D+0.9%Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.09 → 6.33)
  • 12:02 AM 6.09 first run
  • 1:55 AM 6.33 +0.24NJD goalie: Connor Hellebuyck → Jake Allen +0.24; COL goalie Mackenzie Blackwood: Projected → Likely; Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o+100
  • 6:19 AM 6.33 NJD goalie Jake Allen: Conflict → Confirmed
  • 11:18 AM 6.33 NJD lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-27); Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o-100
  • 12:18 PM 6.33 no change
  • 1:18 PM 6.33 COL goalie Mackenzie Blackwood: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o+100
  • 2:18 PM 6.33 Nicolas Roy (COL) off day-to-day; COL lineup: Bailey Curtis Oct 28 1:25 PM; Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o-100
  • 3:18 PM 6.33 Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o-103
  • 4:18 PM 6.33 Line 6.5 o-103 → 6.5 o-104
  • 4:22 PM 6.33 no change
  • 5:18 PM 6.33 no change
  • 6:18 PM 6.33 Line 6.5 o-104 → 6.5 o-103
  • 7:18 PM 6.33 Injuries / lineup: Johnathan Kovacevic (NJD) out, Declan Chisholm (NJD) back in -0.00
  • 8:18 PM 6.33 no change
  • 8:46 PM 6.33 no change

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: NJD projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (NJD 2.63). The 6.33 total looks high, but most of it comes from COL; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, NJD is mid (2.02) and COL is great (2.34); on the power play, NJD is mid (0.54) and COL is bad (0.46). NJD faces Mackenzie Blackwood, a Mid goalie, grade 46 (-1.8%); COL faces Jake Allen, a Mid goalie, grade 48 (-2.0%). Other factors: NJD played yesterday (-8%); NJD's team speed costs 5.7%; COL's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); COL's team speed adds 6.3%. NJD 2.63: 0.51 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.24 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); team speed -0.16 (it skates slower than COL, -5.7%); Mackenzie Blackwood in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 46, -1.8%); power play -0.04 (its power play ranks #16, COL's penalty kill and penalty habits #5); 5-on-5 matchup -0.03 (its attack ranks #13 of 32, COL's defense #13). COL 3.70: 0.56 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.30 (its attack ranks #1 of 32, NJD's defense #4); team speed +0.22 (it skates faster than NJD, +6.3%); back-to-back +0.21 (NJD played yesterday, +6.5%); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.6%). Holding it back: power play -0.11 (its power play ranks #21, NJD's penalty kill and penalty habits #2); Jake Allen in goal -0.07 (a Mid goalie, grade 48, -2.0%). The model projects 6.33 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (NJD 2, COL 5), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.
7:30 PM ETAVOID
O 5.5 ✗ went over
PHI#31 OFF / #19 DEF22.40●
J. Woll ✓ Mid 58
WSH#10 OFF / #24 DEF53.83●
L. Thompson ✓ Strong 92
7 goals · proj 6.24 · P(7+) 42%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
PHI1.750.63-8.1%0.54-8.0%-1.3%-1.5%
WSH2.460.58-2.8%0.51+6.5%+1.5%+2.6%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
PHI1.64#32 of 322.17#25 of 321.75goals
WSH2.31#4 of 322.17#23 of 322.46goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
PHI0.52#23 of 320.67#29 of 320.63goals
WSH0.51#26 of 320.63#25 of 320.58goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPre-game
PHI
Trevor Zegras C-2.3%Plays
Matvei Michkov R-2.3%Plays
Travis Konecny R-1.4%OUT · IR
Owen Tippett R-1.4%OUT · IR
Tyson Foerster R-0.8%Plays
WSH
Alex Ovechkin L-3.4%Plays
Tom Wilson R-3.0%Plays
Dylan Strome C-3.0%Plays
Jakob Chychrun D-2.5%Plays
Ryan Leonard R-1.7%Plays
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-game
PHI
Jamie Drysdale D+1.2%Plays
Matvei Michkov R+1.0%Plays
Noah Cates L+1.0%Plays
Trevor Zegras C+1.0%Plays
Owen Tippett R+0.9%OUT · IR
WSH
Jakob Chychrun D+1.1%Plays
Justin Sourdif C+0.7%Plays
Dylan Strome C+0.6%Plays
Ryan Leonard R+0.6%Plays
Rasmus Sandin D+0.5%OUT · IR

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.30 → 6.24)
  • 12:02 AM 6.30 first run
  • 1:55 AM 6.51 +0.21WSH goalie: Logan Thompson → Charlie Lindgren +0.21
  • 6:19 AM 6.23 -0.27WSH goalie: Charlie Lindgren → Logan Thompson -0.21; PHI goalie: Dan Vladar → Joseph Woll -0.06
  • 11:18 AM 6.23 PHI lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-27); Line 6.5 o+105 → 6.5 o+108
  • 12:18 PM 6.23 Line 6.5 o+108 → 6.5 o+109
  • 1:18 PM 6.23 WSH goalie Logan Thompson: Likely → Confirmed; WSH lineup: Sammi Silber Oct 28 12:52 PM
  • 2:18 PM 6.23 Line 6.5 o+109 → 6.5 o+113
  • 3:18 PM 6.23 no change
  • 4:18 PM 6.23 Line 6.5 o+113 → 6.5 o-101
  • 4:22 PM 6.23 no change
  • 5:18 PM 6.23 Line 6.5 o-101 → 6 o-115
  • 6:18 PM 6.23 PHI goalie Joseph Woll: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6 o-115 → 6 o-127
  • 7:18 PM 6.24 Injuries / lineup: Michael Bunting (PHI) out +0.00; PHI lineup: Jackie Spiegel Oct 28 7:09 PM; WSH lineup: Sammi Silber Oct 28 7:11 PM; Line 6 o-127 → 5.5 o-125

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: PHI projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (PHI 2.40); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. The 6.24 total looks high, but most of it comes from WSH; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, PHI is trash (1.75) and WSH is great (2.46); on the power play, PHI is good (0.63) and WSH is mid (0.58). PHI faces Logan Thompson, a Strong goalie, grade 92 (-8.1%); WSH faces Joseph Woll, a Mid goalie, grade 58 (-2.8%). Other factors: PHI played yesterday (-8%); injuries cost PHI 1.5%; WSH's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); injuries help WSH 2.6%. PHI 2.40: 0.74 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: power play +0.05 (its power play ranks #23, WSH's penalty kill and penalty habits #29). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.30 (its attack ranks #32 of 32, WSH's defense #25); Logan Thompson in goal -0.24 (a Strong goalie, grade 92, -8.1%); back-to-back -0.21 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); injuries -0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.5%); team speed -0.03 (it skates slower than WSH, -1.3%). WSH 3.83: 0.69 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.42 (its attack ranks #4 of 32, PHI's defense #23); back-to-back +0.22 (PHI played yesterday, +6.5%); injuries +0.10 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.6%); team speed +0.06 (it skates faster than PHI, +1.5%). Holding it back: Joseph Woll in goal -0.10 (a Mid goalie, grade 58, -2.8%). The model projects 6.24 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 42% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 6.5 to 5.5, toward the under. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (PHI 2, WSH 5), so it went over 5.5 and the call was wrong.
8:30 PM ETAVOID
U 6.5 ✓ under
CGY#26 OFF / #25 DEF02.61●
D. Cooley ✓ Good 73
EDM#7 OFF / #17 DEF43.52●
T. Jarry ✓ Trash 9
4 goals · proj 6.13 · P(7+) 43%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
CGY1.730.48+2.4%0.52–-7.0%+0.2%
EDM2.210.79-4.3%0.52–+7.1%-2.3%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
CGY1.81#28 of 321.95#11 of 321.73goals
EDM2.07#14 of 322.17#24 of 322.21goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
CGY0.48#27 of 320.55#12 of 320.48goals
EDM0.73#2 of 320.60#21 of 320.79goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPre-game
CGY
Matt Coronato R-1.6%Plays
Morgan Frost C-1.4%Plays
Matvei Gridin R-0.7%Plays
Joel Farabee L-0.6%Plays
Jonathan Huberdeau L-0.5%OUT · IR
EDM
Connor McDavid C-8.2%Plays
Leon Draisaitl C-7.0%Plays
Evan Bouchard D-5.0%Plays
Zach Hyman L-2.8%OUT · IR
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C-1.8%Plays
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-game
CGY
Morgan Frost C+0.8%Plays
Matt Coronato R+0.4%Plays
Adam Klapka R+0.4%Plays
Ryan Strome C+0.4%Plays
Joel Hanley D+0.4%OUT · scratch
EDM
Leon Draisaitl C+1.5%Plays
Connor McDavid C+1.5%Plays
Evan Bouchard D+1.5%Plays
Vasily Podkolzin R+1.3%Plays
Zach Hyman L+0.6%OUT · IR

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.14 → 6.13)
  • 12:02 AM 6.14 first run
  • 1:55 AM 6.14 CGY goalie Devin Cooley: Projected → Likely; EDM goalie Tristan Jarry: Projected → Likely
  • 6:19 AM 6.14 Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-114
  • 11:18 AM 6.14 Line 6.5 o-114 → 6.5 o-115
  • 12:18 PM 6.14 no change
  • 1:18 PM 6.14 CGY goalie Devin Cooley: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-114
  • 2:18 PM 6.16 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Mattias Ekholm (EDM) back in +0.01; CGY lineup: Derek Wills Oct 28 1:54 PM; Mattias Ekholm (EDM) day-to-day; Line 6.5 o-114 → 6.5 o-115
  • 3:18 PM 6.16 EDM goalie Tristan Jarry: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-114
  • 4:18 PM 6.16 no change
  • 4:22 PM 6.16 no change
  • 5:18 PM 6.13 -0.02Injuries / lineup: Jason Dickinson (EDM) back in -0.02; Jason Dickinson (EDM) day-to-day
  • 6:18 PM 6.13 Line 6.5 o-114 → 6.5 o-115
  • 7:18 PM 6.13 Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-123
  • 8:18 PM 6.13 no change

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: CGY projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (CGY 2.61). The 6.13 total looks high, but most of it comes from EDM; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, CGY is trash (1.73) and EDM is great (2.21); on the power play, CGY is bad (0.48) and EDM is great (0.79). CGY faces Tristan Jarry, a Trash goalie, grade 9 (+2.4%); EDM faces Devin Cooley, a Good goalie, grade 73 (-4.3%). Other factors: CGY's team speed costs 7.0%; EDM's team speed adds 7.1%; injuries cost EDM 2.3%. CGY 2.61: 0.53 goals below what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: Tristan Jarry in goal +0.06 (a Trash goalie, grade 9, +2.4%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.31 (its attack ranks #28 of 32, EDM's defense #11); team speed -0.20 (it skates slower than EDM, -7.0%); power play -0.10 (its power play ranks #27, EDM's penalty kill and penalty habits #12). EDM 3.52: 0.38 goals above what an average team would score (3.14). Pushing it up: team speed +0.24 (it skates faster than CGY, +7.1%); power play +0.21 (its power play ranks #2, CGY's penalty kill and penalty habits #21); 5-on-5 matchup +0.16 (its attack ranks #14 of 32, CGY's defense #24). Holding it back: Devin Cooley in goal -0.15 (a Good goalie, grade 73, -4.3%); injuries -0.08 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.3%). The model projects 6.13 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 43% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 4 goals (CGY 0, EDM 4), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

Two rows per game (away, then home). ● = team projected high-scoring. Proj = (5v5 + PP + Oth) × goalie (Gl) × back-to-back (B2B) × team speed (Spd) × injuries (Inj). Hover or tap any underlined label for an explanation.