Monday, October 5, 2026

4 games · 0 flags · 0 of 4 went over the line · avg 5.0 goals (projected 6.0) · calls: SLAM – · 1U – · PASS – · AVOID 4 of 4 stayed under

Breakdown (for scoring):greatgoodmidbadtrash
TeamResultGoaliesProjection breakdown
TeamGProjTotal goalsProj totalP(7+)LinePickGoalie5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
WPG#18 OFF / #26 DEF32.63●5U 6.56.3149%6.5 → 6.57:30 PM ET
AVOID
✓ under		C. Stevenson ✓ OK 321.860.58+1.2%0.40-8.0%-1.0%+0.8%
PIT#4 OFF / #9 DEF23.67●S. Murashov ✓ Trash 152.440.72-0.8%0.40+6.5%+0.5%-2.7%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
WPG1.89#27 of 322.02#14 of 321.86goals0.66#5 of 320.48#3 of 320.58goals
PIT2.32#2 of 322.15#27 of 322.44goals0.68#2 of 320.59#22 of 320.72goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?PlayerIf outPlayed?
WPGKyle Connor L-5.0%PlayedCole Perfetti C+1.3%Played
Mark Scheifele C-4.5%PlayedJosh Morrissey D+1.1%Played
Gabriel Vilardi C-2.8%PlayedNino Niederreiter R+0.9%Didn't play
Josh Morrissey D-1.5%PlayedAlex Iafallo L+0.6%Played
Cole Perfetti C-1.4%PlayedVladislav Namestnikov C+0.6%Played
PITSidney Crosby C-3.6%PlayedTommy Novak C+1.0%Played
Bryan Rust R-3.0%Didn't playBen Kindel C+0.9%Played
Rickard Rakell R-2.7%PlayedSamuel Girard D+0.8%Played
Evgeni Malkin C-2.4%PlayedEgor Chinakhov R+0.6%Played
Erik Karlsson D-1.8%PlayedEvgeni Malkin C+0.4%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.23 → 6.31)
  • 12:03 AM 6.23 first run
  • 5:13 AM 6.26 +0.02WPG goalie: Stuart Skinner → Clay Stevenson +0.02; PIT goalie Arturs Silovs: Projected → Likely
  • 11:18 AM 6.31 +0.05Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.14; PIT goalie: Arturs Silovs → Sergei Murashov -0.09; Injuries / lineup: Ville Koivunen (PIT) back in -0.01; WPG lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-04); PIT lineup: @PensInsideScoop Oct 5 11:03 AM; Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o-105
  • 12:17 PM 6.31 no change
  • 1:17 PM 6.31 no change
  • 2:17 PM 6.31 no change
  • 3:18 PM 6.31 no change
  • 4:23 PM 6.31 no change
  • 5:27 PM 6.31 no change
  • 6:04 PM 6.31 no change
  • 6:17 PM 6.31 no change
  • 6:45 PM 6.31 no change
  • 7:17 PM 6.31 no change

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: WPG projects under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (WPG 2.63). The 6.31 total looks high, but most of it comes from PIT; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, WPG is bad (1.86) and PIT is great (2.44); on the power play, WPG is mid (0.58) and PIT is great (0.72). WPG faces Sergei Murashov, a Trash goalie, grade 15 (+1.2%); PIT faces Clay Stevenson, an OK goalie, grade 32 (-0.8%). Other factors: WPG played yesterday (-8%); PIT's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); injuries cost PIT 2.7%. WPG 2.63: 0.38 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: Sergei Murashov in goal +0.03 (a Trash goalie, grade 15, +1.2%); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.8%). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.23 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.19 (its attack ranks #27 of 32, PIT's defense #14); team speed -0.03 (it skates slower than PIT, -1.0%). PIT 3.67: 0.66 goals above what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.39 (its attack ranks #2 of 32, WPG's defense #27); back-to-back +0.23 (WPG played yesterday, +6.5%); power play +0.15 (its power play ranks #2, WPG's penalty kill and penalty habits #22); team speed +0.02 (it skates faster than WPG, +0.5%). Holding it back: injuries -0.10 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.7%); Clay Stevenson in goal -0.03 (an OK goalie, grade 32, -0.8%). The model projects 6.31 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 49% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (WPG 3, PIT 2), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.
SJS#22 OFF / #29 DEF02.81●5U 6.56.0446%6.5 → 6.58:00 PM ET
AVOID
✓ under		Y. Askarov ✓ Trash 51.840.63-2.6%0.40–+1.0%-0.1%
DAL#21 OFF / #7 DEF53.22●J. Oettinger ✓ Mid 551.990.82+3.4%0.40–-1.5%-1.2%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
SJS1.94#22 of 321.94#7 of 321.84goals0.61#13 of 320.57#19 of 320.63goals
DAL1.93#24 of 322.11#24 of 321.99goals0.64#8 of 320.70#32 of 320.82goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?PlayerIf outPlayed?
SJSMacklin Celebrini C-4.9%Didn't playMacklin Celebrini C+0.8%Didn't play
Will Smith C-2.1%PlayedTyler Toffoli C+0.7%Played
Tyler Toffoli C-2.0%PlayedDmitry Orlov D+0.6%Played
Alexander Wennberg C-0.9%PlayedWill Smith C+0.5%Played
Kiefer Sherwood L-0.8%PlayedAdam Gaudette R+0.4%Didn't play
DALJason Robertson L-5.0%PlayedJason Robertson L+1.4%Played
Wyatt Johnston C-4.5%PlayedMiro Heiskanen D+1.2%Played
Mikko Rantanen R-3.6%PlayedMikko Rantanen R+1.0%Played
Roope Hintz C-2.2%PlayedThomas Harley D+0.9%Played
Matt Duchene C-1.8%Didn't playJustin Hryckowian C+0.8%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.05 → 6.04)
  • 12:03 AM 6.05 first run
  • 5:13 AM 6.05 SJS goalie Yaroslav Askarov: Projected → Likely; DAL goalie Jake Oettinger: Projected → Likely
  • 11:18 AM 6.04 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01
  • 12:17 PM 6.04 DAL goalie Jake Oettinger: Likely → Confirmed; DAL lineup: Owen Newkirk Oct 5 11:39 AM; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o-101
  • 1:17 PM 6.04 SJS goalie Yaroslav Askarov: Likely → Confirmed
  • 2:17 PM 6.04 no change
  • 3:17 PM 6.04 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Sam Dickinson (SJS) back in -0.01; SJS lineup: Max Miller Oct 5 3:06 PM; Line 6.5 o-101 → 6.5 o-102
  • 4:23 PM 6.04 Line 6.5 o-102 → 6.5 o-101
  • 5:27 PM 6.04 no change
  • 6:04 PM 6.04 no change
  • 6:17 PM 6.04 no change
  • 6:45 PM 6.04 Line 6.5 o-101 → 6.5 o-102
  • 7:17 PM 6.04 no change
  • 7:45 PM 6.04 SJS lineup: Sheng Peng Oct 5 7:40 PM; DAL lineup: Robert Tiffin Oct 5 7:39 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: SJS projects under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (SJS 2.81). The 6.04 total looks high, but most of it comes from DAL; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, SJS is bad (1.84) and DAL is mid (1.99); on the power play, SJS is good (0.63) and DAL is great (0.82). SJS faces Jake Oettinger, a Mid goalie, grade 55 (-2.6%); DAL faces Yaroslav Askarov, a Trash goalie, grade 5 (+3.4%). SJS 2.81: 0.20 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: power play +0.06 (its power play ranks #13, DAL's penalty kill and penalty habits #19); team speed +0.03 (it skates faster than DAL, +1.0%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.21 (its attack ranks #22 of 32, DAL's defense #7); Jake Oettinger in goal -0.07 (a Mid goalie, grade 55, -2.6%). DAL 3.22: 0.21 goals above what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: power play +0.25 (its power play ranks #8, SJS's penalty kill and penalty habits #32); Yaroslav Askarov in goal +0.11 (a Trash goalie, grade 5, +3.4%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.05 (its attack ranks #24 of 32, SJS's defense #24); team speed -0.05 (it skates slower than SJS, -1.5%); injuries -0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.2%). The model projects 6.04 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 46% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (SJS 0, DAL 5), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.
OTT#5 OFF / #5 DEF43.19●5U 5.55.7644%5.5 → 5.57:30 PM ET
AVOID
✓ under		L. Ullmark ✓ Good 642.240.68-6.4%0.40–+3.4%-0.5%
BOS#23 OFF / #23 DEF12.58●J. Swayman ✓ Strong 851.880.47-3.3%0.40–-3.6%+0.6%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
OTT2.24#4 of 322.05#18 of 322.24goals0.63#10 of 320.59#22 of 320.68goals
BOS2.05#15 of 321.88#2 of 321.88goals0.51#22 of 320.51#6 of 320.47goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?PlayerIf outPlayed?
OTTTim Stützle C-4.2%PlayedJordan Spence D+2.1%Played
Drake Batherson R-3.3%PlayedDrake Batherson R+1.5%Played
Dylan Cozens C-2.5%PlayedDylan Cozens C+1.4%Played
Shane Pinto C-1.5%PlayedTim Stützle C+1.2%Played
Jake Sanderson D-1.4%Didn't playTyler Kleven D+1.1%Played
BOSDavid Pastrnak R-4.2%PlayedDavid Pastrnak R+0.9%Played
Morgan Geekie C-3.3%PlayedMason Lohrei D+0.7%Played
Pavel Zacha C-2.4%PlayedMorgan Geekie C+0.7%Played
Elias Lindholm C-1.5%PlayedCasey Mittelstadt C+0.5%Played
Charlie McAvoy D-1.0%Didn't playFraser Minten C+0.3%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.02 → 5.76)
  • 12:03 AM 6.02 first run
  • 5:13 AM 5.79 -0.23BOS goalie: Michael DiPietro → Jeremy Swayman -0.22; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; OTT goalie Linus Ullmark: Projected → Likely
  • 11:18 AM 5.79 Injuries / lineup: Jonathan Aspirot (BOS) out +0.01; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; BOS goalie Jeremy Swayman: Likely → Confirmed; Matthew Poitras (BOS) day-to-day; Line 5.5 o-125 → 5.5 o-129
  • 12:17 PM 5.77 -0.02Injuries / lineup: Jake Sanderson (OTT) out -0.02; OTT goalie Linus Ullmark: Likely → Confirmed
  • 1:17 PM 5.77 OTT lineup: Jackson Starr Oct 5 12:20 PM; Line 5.5 o-129 → 5.5 o-119
  • 2:17 PM 5.77 Line 5.5 o-119 → 5.5 o-120
  • 3:17 PM 5.76 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Michael Eyssimont (BOS) back in -0.01
  • 4:23 PM 5.76 no change
  • 5:27 PM 5.76 no change
  • 6:04 PM 5.76 no change
  • 6:17 PM 5.76 no change
  • 6:45 PM 5.76 no change
  • 7:17 PM 5.76 no change

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: BOS projects under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (BOS 2.58); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, OTT is great (2.24) and BOS is bad (1.88); on the power play, OTT is great (0.68) and BOS is bad (0.47). OTT faces Jeremy Swayman, a Strong goalie, grade 85 (-6.4%); BOS faces Linus Ullmark, a Good goalie, grade 64 (-3.3%). Other factors: OTT's team speed adds 3.4%; BOS's team speed costs 3.6%. OTT 3.19: 0.18 goals above what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.19 (its attack ranks #4 of 32, BOS's defense #18); power play +0.11 (its power play ranks #10, BOS's penalty kill and penalty habits #22); team speed +0.10 (it skates faster than BOS, +3.4%). Holding it back: Jeremy Swayman in goal -0.21 (a Strong goalie, grade 85, -6.4%); injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.5%). BOS 2.58: 0.44 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.6%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.17 (its attack ranks #15 of 32, OTT's defense #2); team speed -0.09 (it skates slower than OTT, -3.6%); power play -0.09 (its power play ranks #22, OTT's penalty kill and penalty habits #6); Linus Ullmark in goal -0.09 (a Good goalie, grade 64, -3.3%). The model projects 5.76 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 44% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (OTT 4, BOS 1), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.
PHI#31 OFF / #24 DEF12.38●5U 5.55.6943%5.5 → 5.57:00 PM ET
AVOID
✓ under		D. Vladar ✓ OK 241.710.44-8.2%0.40–-0.2%+1.8%
TBL#10 OFF / #8 DEF43.31●A. Vasilevskiy ✓ Strong 932.280.58-0.1%0.40–+0.2%+1.6%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
PHI1.82#31 of 321.93#5 of 321.71goals0.45#29 of 320.54#12 of 320.44goals
TBL2.21#6 of 322.12#25 of 322.28goals0.53#20 of 320.60#24 of 320.58goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?PlayerIf outPlayed?
PHITravis Konecny R-2.0%PlayedJamie Drysdale D+1.1%Played
Trevor Zegras C-1.9%PlayedOwen Tippett R+1.0%Played
Matvei Michkov R-1.8%PlayedNoah Cates L+0.9%Played
Owen Tippett R-1.6%PlayedMatvei Michkov R+0.9%Played
Tyson Foerster R-0.6%PlayedTrevor Zegras C+0.8%Played
TBLNikita Kucherov R-7.3%PlayedGage Goncalves C+1.2%Played
Jake Guentzel C-5.2%PlayedPontus Holmberg R+1.1%Played
Brandon Hagel L-5.1%PlayedNikita Kucherov R+1.0%Played
Brayden Point C-3.3%PlayedJake Guentzel C+0.9%Played
Anthony Cirelli C-2.8%PlayedCharle-Edouard D'Astous D+0.8%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (5.57 → 5.69)
  • 12:03 AM 5.57 first run
  • 5:13 AM 5.66 +0.09PHI goalie: Joseph Woll → Dan Vladar +0.09; TBL goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy: Projected → Likely
  • 11:18 AM 5.67 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Emil Lilleberg (TBL) out +0.02; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; PHI goalie Dan Vladar: Likely → Confirmed; Line 5.5 o-129 → 5.5 o-127
  • 12:17 PM 5.68 +0.01Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated +0.01
  • 1:17 PM 5.67 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Denver Barkey (PHI) back in -0.01; Denver Barkey (PHI) day-to-day; PHI lineup: Projected Oct 5 1:05 PM
  • 2:17 PM 5.67 no change
  • 3:18 PM 5.67 no change
  • 4:23 PM 5.67 TBL goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy: Likely → Confirmed
  • 5:27 PM 5.67 Denver Barkey (PHI) off day-to-day
  • 6:04 PM 5.67 Line 5.5 o-127 → 5.5 o-129
  • 6:17 PM 5.67 no change
  • 6:45 PM 5.69 +0.02Injuries / lineup: Rasmus Ristolainen (PHI) out +0.02

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: PHI projects under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (PHI 2.38); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, PHI is trash (1.71) and TBL is great (2.28); on the power play, PHI is trash (0.44) and TBL is mid (0.58). PHI faces Andrei Vasilevskiy, a Strong goalie, grade 93 (-8.2%); TBL faces Dan Vladar, an OK goalie, grade 24 (-0.1%). Other factors: injuries help PHI 1.8%; injuries help TBL 1.6%. PHI 2.38: 0.63 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: injuries +0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.8%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.33 (its attack ranks #31 of 32, TBL's defense #5); Andrei Vasilevskiy in goal -0.21 (a Strong goalie, grade 93, -8.2%); power play -0.13 (its power play ranks #29, TBL's penalty kill and penalty habits #12). TBL 3.31: 0.30 goals above what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.23 (its attack ranks #6 of 32, PHI's defense #25); injuries +0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.6%); power play +0.01 (its power play ranks #20, PHI's penalty kill and penalty habits #24). The model projects 5.69 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 43% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (PHI 1, TBL 4), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.
7:30 PM ETAVOID
U 6.5 ✓ under
WPG#18 OFF / #26 DEF32.63●
C. Stevenson ✓ OK 32
PIT#4 OFF / #9 DEF23.67●
S. Murashov ✓ Trash 15
5 goals · proj 6.31 · P(7+) 49%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
WPG1.860.58+1.2%0.40-8.0%-1.0%+0.8%
PIT2.440.72-0.8%0.40+6.5%+0.5%-2.7%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
WPG1.89#27 of 322.02#14 of 321.86goals
PIT2.32#2 of 322.15#27 of 322.44goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
WPG0.66#5 of 320.48#3 of 320.58goals
PIT0.68#2 of 320.59#22 of 320.72goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPlayed?
WPG
Kyle Connor L-5.0%Played
Mark Scheifele C-4.5%Played
Gabriel Vilardi C-2.8%Played
Josh Morrissey D-1.5%Played
Cole Perfetti C-1.4%Played
PIT
Sidney Crosby C-3.6%Played
Bryan Rust R-3.0%Didn't play
Rickard Rakell R-2.7%Played
Evgeni Malkin C-2.4%Played
Erik Karlsson D-1.8%Played
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?
WPG
Cole Perfetti C+1.3%Played
Josh Morrissey D+1.1%Played
Nino Niederreiter R+0.9%Didn't play
Alex Iafallo L+0.6%Played
Vladislav Namestnikov C+0.6%Played
PIT
Tommy Novak C+1.0%Played
Ben Kindel C+0.9%Played
Samuel Girard D+0.8%Played
Egor Chinakhov R+0.6%Played
Evgeni Malkin C+0.4%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.23 → 6.31)
  • 12:03 AM 6.23 first run
  • 5:13 AM 6.26 +0.02WPG goalie: Stuart Skinner → Clay Stevenson +0.02; PIT goalie Arturs Silovs: Projected → Likely
  • 11:18 AM 6.31 +0.05Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.14; PIT goalie: Arturs Silovs → Sergei Murashov -0.09; Injuries / lineup: Ville Koivunen (PIT) back in -0.01; WPG lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-04); PIT lineup: @PensInsideScoop Oct 5 11:03 AM; Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o-105
  • 12:17 PM 6.31 no change
  • 1:17 PM 6.31 no change
  • 2:17 PM 6.31 no change
  • 3:18 PM 6.31 no change
  • 4:23 PM 6.31 no change
  • 5:27 PM 6.31 no change
  • 6:04 PM 6.31 no change
  • 6:17 PM 6.31 no change
  • 6:45 PM 6.31 no change
  • 7:17 PM 6.31 no change

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: WPG projects under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (WPG 2.63). The 6.31 total looks high, but most of it comes from PIT; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, WPG is bad (1.86) and PIT is great (2.44); on the power play, WPG is mid (0.58) and PIT is great (0.72). WPG faces Sergei Murashov, a Trash goalie, grade 15 (+1.2%); PIT faces Clay Stevenson, an OK goalie, grade 32 (-0.8%). Other factors: WPG played yesterday (-8%); PIT's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); injuries cost PIT 2.7%. WPG 2.63: 0.38 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: Sergei Murashov in goal +0.03 (a Trash goalie, grade 15, +1.2%); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.8%). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.23 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.19 (its attack ranks #27 of 32, PIT's defense #14); team speed -0.03 (it skates slower than PIT, -1.0%). PIT 3.67: 0.66 goals above what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.39 (its attack ranks #2 of 32, WPG's defense #27); back-to-back +0.23 (WPG played yesterday, +6.5%); power play +0.15 (its power play ranks #2, WPG's penalty kill and penalty habits #22); team speed +0.02 (it skates faster than WPG, +0.5%). Holding it back: injuries -0.10 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.7%); Clay Stevenson in goal -0.03 (an OK goalie, grade 32, -0.8%). The model projects 6.31 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 49% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (WPG 3, PIT 2), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.
8:00 PM ETAVOID
U 6.5 ✓ under
SJS#22 OFF / #29 DEF02.81●
Y. Askarov ✓ Trash 5
DAL#21 OFF / #7 DEF53.22●
J. Oettinger ✓ Mid 55
5 goals · proj 6.04 · P(7+) 46%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
SJS1.840.63-2.6%0.40–+1.0%-0.1%
DAL1.990.82+3.4%0.40–-1.5%-1.2%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
SJS1.94#22 of 321.94#7 of 321.84goals
DAL1.93#24 of 322.11#24 of 321.99goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
SJS0.61#13 of 320.57#19 of 320.63goals
DAL0.64#8 of 320.70#32 of 320.82goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPlayed?
SJS
Macklin Celebrini C-4.9%Didn't play
Will Smith C-2.1%Played
Tyler Toffoli C-2.0%Played
Alexander Wennberg C-0.9%Played
Kiefer Sherwood L-0.8%Played
DAL
Jason Robertson L-5.0%Played
Wyatt Johnston C-4.5%Played
Mikko Rantanen R-3.6%Played
Roope Hintz C-2.2%Played
Matt Duchene C-1.8%Didn't play
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?
SJS
Macklin Celebrini C+0.8%Didn't play
Tyler Toffoli C+0.7%Played
Dmitry Orlov D+0.6%Played
Will Smith C+0.5%Played
Adam Gaudette R+0.4%Didn't play
DAL
Jason Robertson L+1.4%Played
Miro Heiskanen D+1.2%Played
Mikko Rantanen R+1.0%Played
Thomas Harley D+0.9%Played
Justin Hryckowian C+0.8%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.05 → 6.04)
  • 12:03 AM 6.05 first run
  • 5:13 AM 6.05 SJS goalie Yaroslav Askarov: Projected → Likely; DAL goalie Jake Oettinger: Projected → Likely
  • 11:18 AM 6.04 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01
  • 12:17 PM 6.04 DAL goalie Jake Oettinger: Likely → Confirmed; DAL lineup: Owen Newkirk Oct 5 11:39 AM; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o-101
  • 1:17 PM 6.04 SJS goalie Yaroslav Askarov: Likely → Confirmed
  • 2:17 PM 6.04 no change
  • 3:17 PM 6.04 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Sam Dickinson (SJS) back in -0.01; SJS lineup: Max Miller Oct 5 3:06 PM; Line 6.5 o-101 → 6.5 o-102
  • 4:23 PM 6.04 Line 6.5 o-102 → 6.5 o-101
  • 5:27 PM 6.04 no change
  • 6:04 PM 6.04 no change
  • 6:17 PM 6.04 no change
  • 6:45 PM 6.04 Line 6.5 o-101 → 6.5 o-102
  • 7:17 PM 6.04 no change
  • 7:45 PM 6.04 SJS lineup: Sheng Peng Oct 5 7:40 PM; DAL lineup: Robert Tiffin Oct 5 7:39 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: SJS projects under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (SJS 2.81). The 6.04 total looks high, but most of it comes from DAL; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, SJS is bad (1.84) and DAL is mid (1.99); on the power play, SJS is good (0.63) and DAL is great (0.82). SJS faces Jake Oettinger, a Mid goalie, grade 55 (-2.6%); DAL faces Yaroslav Askarov, a Trash goalie, grade 5 (+3.4%). SJS 2.81: 0.20 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: power play +0.06 (its power play ranks #13, DAL's penalty kill and penalty habits #19); team speed +0.03 (it skates faster than DAL, +1.0%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.21 (its attack ranks #22 of 32, DAL's defense #7); Jake Oettinger in goal -0.07 (a Mid goalie, grade 55, -2.6%). DAL 3.22: 0.21 goals above what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: power play +0.25 (its power play ranks #8, SJS's penalty kill and penalty habits #32); Yaroslav Askarov in goal +0.11 (a Trash goalie, grade 5, +3.4%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.05 (its attack ranks #24 of 32, SJS's defense #24); team speed -0.05 (it skates slower than SJS, -1.5%); injuries -0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.2%). The model projects 6.04 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 46% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (SJS 0, DAL 5), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.
7:30 PM ETAVOID
U 5.5 ✓ under
OTT#5 OFF / #5 DEF43.19●
L. Ullmark ✓ Good 64
BOS#23 OFF / #23 DEF12.58●
J. Swayman ✓ Strong 85
5 goals · proj 5.76 · P(7+) 44%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
OTT2.240.68-6.4%0.40–+3.4%-0.5%
BOS1.880.47-3.3%0.40–-3.6%+0.6%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
OTT2.24#4 of 322.05#18 of 322.24goals
BOS2.05#15 of 321.88#2 of 321.88goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
OTT0.63#10 of 320.59#22 of 320.68goals
BOS0.51#22 of 320.51#6 of 320.47goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPlayed?
OTT
Tim Stützle C-4.2%Played
Drake Batherson R-3.3%Played
Dylan Cozens C-2.5%Played
Shane Pinto C-1.5%Played
Jake Sanderson D-1.4%Didn't play
BOS
David Pastrnak R-4.2%Played
Morgan Geekie C-3.3%Played
Pavel Zacha C-2.4%Played
Elias Lindholm C-1.5%Played
Charlie McAvoy D-1.0%Didn't play
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?
OTT
Jordan Spence D+2.1%Played
Drake Batherson R+1.5%Played
Dylan Cozens C+1.4%Played
Tim Stützle C+1.2%Played
Tyler Kleven D+1.1%Played
BOS
David Pastrnak R+0.9%Played
Mason Lohrei D+0.7%Played
Morgan Geekie C+0.7%Played
Casey Mittelstadt C+0.5%Played
Fraser Minten C+0.3%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.02 → 5.76)
  • 12:03 AM 6.02 first run
  • 5:13 AM 5.79 -0.23BOS goalie: Michael DiPietro → Jeremy Swayman -0.22; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; OTT goalie Linus Ullmark: Projected → Likely
  • 11:18 AM 5.79 Injuries / lineup: Jonathan Aspirot (BOS) out +0.01; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; BOS goalie Jeremy Swayman: Likely → Confirmed; Matthew Poitras (BOS) day-to-day; Line 5.5 o-125 → 5.5 o-129
  • 12:17 PM 5.77 -0.02Injuries / lineup: Jake Sanderson (OTT) out -0.02; OTT goalie Linus Ullmark: Likely → Confirmed
  • 1:17 PM 5.77 OTT lineup: Jackson Starr Oct 5 12:20 PM; Line 5.5 o-129 → 5.5 o-119
  • 2:17 PM 5.77 Line 5.5 o-119 → 5.5 o-120
  • 3:17 PM 5.76 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Michael Eyssimont (BOS) back in -0.01
  • 4:23 PM 5.76 no change
  • 5:27 PM 5.76 no change
  • 6:04 PM 5.76 no change
  • 6:17 PM 5.76 no change
  • 6:45 PM 5.76 no change
  • 7:17 PM 5.76 no change

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: BOS projects under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (BOS 2.58); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, OTT is great (2.24) and BOS is bad (1.88); on the power play, OTT is great (0.68) and BOS is bad (0.47). OTT faces Jeremy Swayman, a Strong goalie, grade 85 (-6.4%); BOS faces Linus Ullmark, a Good goalie, grade 64 (-3.3%). Other factors: OTT's team speed adds 3.4%; BOS's team speed costs 3.6%. OTT 3.19: 0.18 goals above what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.19 (its attack ranks #4 of 32, BOS's defense #18); power play +0.11 (its power play ranks #10, BOS's penalty kill and penalty habits #22); team speed +0.10 (it skates faster than BOS, +3.4%). Holding it back: Jeremy Swayman in goal -0.21 (a Strong goalie, grade 85, -6.4%); injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.5%). BOS 2.58: 0.44 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.6%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.17 (its attack ranks #15 of 32, OTT's defense #2); team speed -0.09 (it skates slower than OTT, -3.6%); power play -0.09 (its power play ranks #22, OTT's penalty kill and penalty habits #6); Linus Ullmark in goal -0.09 (a Good goalie, grade 64, -3.3%). The model projects 5.76 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 44% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (OTT 4, BOS 1), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.
7:00 PM ETAVOID
U 5.5 ✓ under
PHI#31 OFF / #24 DEF12.38●
D. Vladar ✓ OK 24
TBL#10 OFF / #8 DEF43.31●
A. Vasilevskiy ✓ Strong 93
5 goals · proj 5.69 · P(7+) 43%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
PHI1.710.44-8.2%0.40–-0.2%+1.8%
TBL2.280.58-0.1%0.40–+0.2%+1.6%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
PHI1.82#31 of 321.93#5 of 321.71goals
TBL2.21#6 of 322.12#25 of 322.28goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
PHI0.45#29 of 320.54#12 of 320.44goals
TBL0.53#20 of 320.60#24 of 320.58goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPlayed?
PHI
Travis Konecny R-2.0%Played
Trevor Zegras C-1.9%Played
Matvei Michkov R-1.8%Played
Owen Tippett R-1.6%Played
Tyson Foerster R-0.6%Played
TBL
Nikita Kucherov R-7.3%Played
Jake Guentzel C-5.2%Played
Brandon Hagel L-5.1%Played
Brayden Point C-3.3%Played
Anthony Cirelli C-2.8%Played
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?
PHI
Jamie Drysdale D+1.1%Played
Owen Tippett R+1.0%Played
Noah Cates L+0.9%Played
Matvei Michkov R+0.9%Played
Trevor Zegras C+0.8%Played
TBL
Gage Goncalves C+1.2%Played
Pontus Holmberg R+1.1%Played
Nikita Kucherov R+1.0%Played
Jake Guentzel C+0.9%Played
Charle-Edouard D'Astous D+0.8%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (5.57 → 5.69)
  • 12:03 AM 5.57 first run
  • 5:13 AM 5.66 +0.09PHI goalie: Joseph Woll → Dan Vladar +0.09; TBL goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy: Projected → Likely
  • 11:18 AM 5.67 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Emil Lilleberg (TBL) out +0.02; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; PHI goalie Dan Vladar: Likely → Confirmed; Line 5.5 o-129 → 5.5 o-127
  • 12:17 PM 5.68 +0.01Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated +0.01
  • 1:17 PM 5.67 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Denver Barkey (PHI) back in -0.01; Denver Barkey (PHI) day-to-day; PHI lineup: Projected Oct 5 1:05 PM
  • 2:17 PM 5.67 no change
  • 3:18 PM 5.67 no change
  • 4:23 PM 5.67 TBL goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy: Likely → Confirmed
  • 5:27 PM 5.67 Denver Barkey (PHI) off day-to-day
  • 6:04 PM 5.67 Line 5.5 o-127 → 5.5 o-129
  • 6:17 PM 5.67 no change
  • 6:45 PM 5.69 +0.02Injuries / lineup: Rasmus Ristolainen (PHI) out +0.02

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: PHI projects under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (PHI 2.38); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, PHI is trash (1.71) and TBL is great (2.28); on the power play, PHI is trash (0.44) and TBL is mid (0.58). PHI faces Andrei Vasilevskiy, a Strong goalie, grade 93 (-8.2%); TBL faces Dan Vladar, an OK goalie, grade 24 (-0.1%). Other factors: injuries help PHI 1.8%; injuries help TBL 1.6%. PHI 2.38: 0.63 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: injuries +0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.8%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.33 (its attack ranks #31 of 32, TBL's defense #5); Andrei Vasilevskiy in goal -0.21 (a Strong goalie, grade 93, -8.2%); power play -0.13 (its power play ranks #29, TBL's penalty kill and penalty habits #12). TBL 3.31: 0.30 goals above what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.23 (its attack ranks #6 of 32, PHI's defense #25); injuries +0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.6%); power play +0.01 (its power play ranks #20, PHI's penalty kill and penalty habits #24). The model projects 5.69 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 43% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (PHI 1, TBL 4), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.

Two rows per game (away, then home). ● = team projected high-scoring. Proj = (5v5 + PP + Oth) × goalie (Gl) × back-to-back (B2B) × team speed (Spd) × injuries (Inj). Hover or tap any underlined label for an explanation.