Wednesday, October 14, 2026

2 games · 1 flag · 1 of 2 went over the line · avg 7.0 goals (projected 6.2) · flags 1-0-0 (+0.85u at close) · calls: 🔨 SLAM 1-0-0 · 1U – · PASS – · AVOID 1 of 1 stayed under

Breakdown (for scoring):greatgoodmidbadtrash
TeamResultGoaliesProjection breakdown
TeamGProjTotal goalsProj totalP(7+)LinePickGoalie5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
MTL#15 OFF / #22 DEF43.28●9O 6.56.3949%6.5 → 6.57:30 PM ET
🔨 SLAM
W
paper W +0.85u		J. Dobes ✓ Good 692.210.63-0.1%0.49-2.0%+1.1%-0.4%
WSH#12 OFF / #26 DEF53.11●C. Lindgren ✓ OK 252.250.57-3.8%0.50-2.0%-0.6%-0.4%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
MTL2.06#15 of 322.19#28 of 322.21goals0.50#25 of 320.69#29 of 320.63goals
WSH2.27#5 of 322.02#17 of 322.25goals0.47#27 of 320.68#28 of 320.57goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-gamePlayerIf outPre-game
MTLCole Caufield R-5.3%PlaysLane Hutson D+2.0%Plays
Nick Suzuki C-5.0%PlaysCole Caufield R+1.3%Plays
Juraj Slafkovský L-3.4%PlaysZachary Bolduc R+1.2%Plays
Lane Hutson D-2.3%PlaysNick Suzuki C+1.2%Plays
Ivan Demidov R-1.9%OUT · IRJuraj Slafkovský L+0.8%Plays
WSHAlex Ovechkin L-3.5%PlaysJakob Chychrun D+1.1%Plays
Tom Wilson R-3.2%PlaysJustin Sourdif C+0.7%Plays
Dylan Strome C-2.7%PlaysRasmus Sandin D+0.6%OUT · IR
Jakob Chychrun D-2.5%PlaysRyan Leonard R+0.5%Plays
Aliaksei Protas L-1.7%PlaysDylan Strome C+0.5%Plays

Also out: WSH: Pierre-Luc Dubois -0.9% attack, +0.4% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.20 → 6.39)
  • 12:02 AM 6.20 first run
  • 2:14 AM 6.20 no change
  • 5:16 AM 6.46 +0.25WSH goalie: Logan Thompson → Charlie Lindgren +0.26; MTL goalie Jakub Dobes: Conflict → Confirmed
  • 12:18 PM 6.40 -0.06Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.07; Injuries / lineup: Mike Matheson (MTL) back in +0.01; Mike Matheson (MTL) day-to-day; MTL lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-13); Alex Tuch (WSH) off day-to-day; WSH lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-13)
  • 1:17 PM 6.39 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Mike Matheson (MTL) out -0.01; WSH goalie Charlie Lindgren: Likely → Confirmed
  • 2:17 PM 6.39 no change
  • 3:17 PM 6.39 no change
  • 3:28 PM 6.39 no change
  • 4:13 PM 6.39 no change
  • 4:17 PM 6.39 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.39 Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-116
  • 6:17 PM 6.39 Line 6.5 o-116 → 6.5 o-118
  • 7:17 PM 6.39 no change

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

🔨 SLAM: both teams project as high-scoring (MTL 3.28, WSH 3.11; cutoff 3.09), the line is 6.5, and both are good or better at 5-on-5, the strongest over spot the model has. At 5-on-5, MTL is great (2.21) and WSH is great (2.25); on the power play, MTL is good (0.63) and WSH is mid (0.57). MTL faces Charlie Lindgren, an OK goalie, grade 25 (-0.1%); WSH faces Jakub Dobes, a Good goalie, grade 69 (-3.8%). Only WSH faces a Strong or Good goalie, so the avoid rule for two Strong / Good goalies doesn't apply. Other factors: both teams played yesterday (-2% each). MTL 3.28: 0.17 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.17 (its attack ranks #15 of 32, WSH's defense #28); power play +0.05 (its power play ranks #25, WSH's penalty kill and penalty habits #29); team speed +0.04 (it skates faster than WSH, +1.1%). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.07 (both teams played yesterday, -2.0%); injuries -0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.4%). WSH 3.11: 0.00 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.21 (its attack ranks #5 of 32, MTL's defense #17). Holding it back: Jakub Dobes in goal -0.13 (a Good goalie, grade 69, -3.8%); back-to-back -0.06 (both teams played yesterday, -2.0%); team speed -0.02 (it skates slower than MTL, -0.6%); injuries -0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.4%). The model projects 6.39 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 49% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over 55% of the time at the opening line and 56.5% at the closing line in 2021-26. Final: 9 goals (MTL 4, WSH 5), so it went over 6.5 and the call was right.
DAL#22 OFF / #2 DEF32.40●5U 65.9440%6 → 5.5 ↓8:30 PM ET
AVOID ⚠ lineup
✓ under		C. DeSmith ✓ Good 731.850.55-4.1%0.51-2.0%-7.0%-5.5%
COL#2 OFF / #3 DEF23.54●S. Wedgewood ✓ Good 722.420.57-4.3%0.49-2.0%+7.4%+0.8%
⚠ Lineup change since 12:02 AM: Cale Makar now Plays (was OUT, seen 8:17 PM) · COL +3.3% · projection 5.99 → 5.94
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
DAL1.95#21 of 321.93#8 of 321.85goals0.64#7 of 320.47#3 of 320.55goals
COL2.63#1 of 321.88#4 of 322.42goals0.57#18 of 320.56#13 of 320.57goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-gamePlayerIf outPre-game
DALJason Robertson L-5.1%PlaysJason Robertson L+1.4%Plays
Wyatt Johnston C-4.3%OUTMiro Heiskanen D+1.2%Plays
Mikko Rantanen R-3.8%PlaysMikko Rantanen R+1.1%Plays
Roope Hintz C-2.4%PlaysThomas Harley D+1.0%Plays
Matt Duchene C-1.5%OUT · IRNils Lundkvist D+0.9%Plays
COLNathan MacKinnon C-6.6%PlaysMartin Necas C+1.5%Plays
Martin Necas C-5.2%PlaysSam Malinski D+1.4%Plays
⚠ Cale Makar D-3.1%Playswas OUTNathan MacKinnon C+1.3%Plays
Brock Nelson C-2.8%PlaysBrett Kulak D+0.8%Plays
Artturi Lehkonen L-2.5%Plays⚠ Cale Makar D+0.8%Playswas OUT

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (5.99 → 5.94)
  • 12:02 AM 5.99 first run
  • 2:14 AM 5.99 no change
  • 5:16 AM 5.91 -0.09COL goalie: Mackenzie Blackwood → Scott Wedgewood -0.07; DAL goalie: Jake Oettinger → Casey DeSmith -0.02; Line 6 o-110 → 6 o-109
  • 12:18 PM 5.94 +0.03Injuries / lineup: Cale Makar (COL) back in +0.10; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.07; DAL lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-13); Cale Makar (COL) day-to-day; Zachary L'Heureux (COL) day-to-day; Line 6 o-109 → 6 o-105
  • 1:17 PM 5.94 no change
  • 2:17 PM 5.94 Line 6 o-105 → 6 o-122
  • 3:17 PM 5.94 Roope Hintz (DAL) off day-to-day; Line 6 o-122 → 6 o-123
  • 3:28 PM 5.94 no change
  • 4:13 PM 5.94 Line 6 o-123 → 5.5 o-139
  • 4:17 PM 5.94 no change
  • 5:17 PM 5.94 DAL lineup: Projected Oct 14 5:15 PM; Line 5.5 o-139 → 5.5 o-140
  • 6:17 PM 5.94 Cale Makar (COL) off day-to-day; Line 5.5 o-140 → 6.5 o+101
  • 7:17 PM 5.94 no change
  • 8:17 PM 5.94 Injuries / lineup: Nicolas Roy (COL) out +0.00; COL goalie Scott Wedgewood: Likely → Confirmed; Zachary L'Heureux (COL) off day-to-day; COL lineup: Evan Rawal Oct 14 8:08 PM; Line 6.5 o+101 → 6 o-115

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: DAL projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (DAL 2.40). At 5-on-5, DAL is bad (1.85) and COL is great (2.42); on the power play, DAL is mid (0.55) and COL is mid (0.57). DAL faces Scott Wedgewood, a Good goalie, grade 72 (-4.1%); COL faces Casey DeSmith, a Good goalie, grade 73 (-4.3%). Other factors: both teams played yesterday (-2% each); DAL's team speed costs 7.0%; injuries cost DAL 5.5%; COL's team speed adds 7.4%. DAL 2.40: 0.71 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.20 (its attack ranks #21 of 32, COL's defense #8); team speed -0.19 (it skates slower than COL, -7.0%); injuries -0.14 (missing players on both teams, net, -5.5%); Scott Wedgewood in goal -0.12 (a Good goalie, grade 72, -4.1%); back-to-back -0.06 (both teams played yesterday, -2.0%); power play -0.03 (its power play ranks #7, COL's penalty kill and penalty habits #3). COL 3.54: 0.43 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.38 (its attack ranks #1 of 32, DAL's defense #4); team speed +0.24 (it skates faster than DAL, +7.4%); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.8%). Holding it back: Casey DeSmith in goal -0.15 (a Good goalie, grade 73, -4.3%); back-to-back -0.07 (both teams played yesterday, -2.0%). The model projects 5.94 total goals against a 6 line, with a 40% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 5.5 to 6, toward the over. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (DAL 3, COL 2), so it stayed under 6 and the call was right.
7:30 PM ET🔨 SLAM
O 6.5 W
paper W +0.85u
MTL#15 OFF / #22 DEF43.28●
J. Dobes ✓ Good 69
WSH#12 OFF / #26 DEF53.11●
C. Lindgren ✓ OK 25
9 goals · proj 6.39 · P(7+) 49%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
MTL2.210.63-0.1%0.49-2.0%+1.1%-0.4%
WSH2.250.57-3.8%0.50-2.0%-0.6%-0.4%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
MTL2.06#15 of 322.19#28 of 322.21goals
WSH2.27#5 of 322.02#17 of 322.25goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
MTL0.50#25 of 320.69#29 of 320.63goals
WSH0.47#27 of 320.68#28 of 320.57goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPre-game
MTL
Cole Caufield R-5.3%Plays
Nick Suzuki C-5.0%Plays
Juraj Slafkovský L-3.4%Plays
Lane Hutson D-2.3%Plays
Ivan Demidov R-1.9%OUT · IR
WSH
Alex Ovechkin L-3.5%Plays
Tom Wilson R-3.2%Plays
Dylan Strome C-2.7%Plays
Jakob Chychrun D-2.5%Plays
Aliaksei Protas L-1.7%Plays
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-game
MTL
Lane Hutson D+2.0%Plays
Cole Caufield R+1.3%Plays
Zachary Bolduc R+1.2%Plays
Nick Suzuki C+1.2%Plays
Juraj Slafkovský L+0.8%Plays
WSH
Jakob Chychrun D+1.1%Plays
Justin Sourdif C+0.7%Plays
Rasmus Sandin D+0.6%OUT · IR
Ryan Leonard R+0.5%Plays
Dylan Strome C+0.5%Plays

Also out: WSH: Pierre-Luc Dubois -0.9% attack, +0.4% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.20 → 6.39)
  • 12:02 AM 6.20 first run
  • 2:14 AM 6.20 no change
  • 5:16 AM 6.46 +0.25WSH goalie: Logan Thompson → Charlie Lindgren +0.26; MTL goalie Jakub Dobes: Conflict → Confirmed
  • 12:18 PM 6.40 -0.06Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.07; Injuries / lineup: Mike Matheson (MTL) back in +0.01; Mike Matheson (MTL) day-to-day; MTL lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-13); Alex Tuch (WSH) off day-to-day; WSH lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-13)
  • 1:17 PM 6.39 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Mike Matheson (MTL) out -0.01; WSH goalie Charlie Lindgren: Likely → Confirmed
  • 2:17 PM 6.39 no change
  • 3:17 PM 6.39 no change
  • 3:28 PM 6.39 no change
  • 4:13 PM 6.39 no change
  • 4:17 PM 6.39 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.39 Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-116
  • 6:17 PM 6.39 Line 6.5 o-116 → 6.5 o-118
  • 7:17 PM 6.39 no change

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

🔨 SLAM: both teams project as high-scoring (MTL 3.28, WSH 3.11; cutoff 3.09), the line is 6.5, and both are good or better at 5-on-5, the strongest over spot the model has. At 5-on-5, MTL is great (2.21) and WSH is great (2.25); on the power play, MTL is good (0.63) and WSH is mid (0.57). MTL faces Charlie Lindgren, an OK goalie, grade 25 (-0.1%); WSH faces Jakub Dobes, a Good goalie, grade 69 (-3.8%). Only WSH faces a Strong or Good goalie, so the avoid rule for two Strong / Good goalies doesn't apply. Other factors: both teams played yesterday (-2% each). MTL 3.28: 0.17 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.17 (its attack ranks #15 of 32, WSH's defense #28); power play +0.05 (its power play ranks #25, WSH's penalty kill and penalty habits #29); team speed +0.04 (it skates faster than WSH, +1.1%). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.07 (both teams played yesterday, -2.0%); injuries -0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.4%). WSH 3.11: 0.00 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.21 (its attack ranks #5 of 32, MTL's defense #17). Holding it back: Jakub Dobes in goal -0.13 (a Good goalie, grade 69, -3.8%); back-to-back -0.06 (both teams played yesterday, -2.0%); team speed -0.02 (it skates slower than MTL, -0.6%); injuries -0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.4%). The model projects 6.39 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 49% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over 55% of the time at the opening line and 56.5% at the closing line in 2021-26. Final: 9 goals (MTL 4, WSH 5), so it went over 6.5 and the call was right.
8:30 PM ETAVOID ⚠ lineup
U 6 ✓ under
DAL#22 OFF / #2 DEF32.40●
C. DeSmith ✓ Good 73
COL#2 OFF / #3 DEF23.54●
S. Wedgewood ✓ Good 72
5 goals · proj 5.94 · P(7+) 40%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
DAL1.850.55-4.1%0.51-2.0%-7.0%-5.5%
COL2.420.57-4.3%0.49-2.0%+7.4%+0.8%
Why this call
⚠ Lineup change since 12:02 AM: Cale Makar now Plays (was OUT, seen 8:17 PM) · COL +3.3% · projection 5.99 → 5.94
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
DAL1.95#21 of 321.93#8 of 321.85goals
COL2.63#1 of 321.88#4 of 322.42goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
DAL0.64#7 of 320.47#3 of 320.55goals
COL0.57#18 of 320.56#13 of 320.57goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPre-game
DAL
Jason Robertson L-5.1%Plays
Wyatt Johnston C-4.3%OUT
Mikko Rantanen R-3.8%Plays
Roope Hintz C-2.4%Plays
Matt Duchene C-1.5%OUT · IR
COL
Nathan MacKinnon C-6.6%Plays
Martin Necas C-5.2%Plays
⚠ Cale Makar D-3.1%Playswas OUT
Brock Nelson C-2.8%Plays
Artturi Lehkonen L-2.5%Plays
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPre-game
DAL
Jason Robertson L+1.4%Plays
Miro Heiskanen D+1.2%Plays
Mikko Rantanen R+1.1%Plays
Thomas Harley D+1.0%Plays
Nils Lundkvist D+0.9%Plays
COL
Martin Necas C+1.5%Plays
Sam Malinski D+1.4%Plays
Nathan MacKinnon C+1.3%Plays
Brett Kulak D+0.8%Plays
⚠ Cale Makar D+0.8%Playswas OUT

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (5.99 → 5.94)
  • 12:02 AM 5.99 first run
  • 2:14 AM 5.99 no change
  • 5:16 AM 5.91 -0.09COL goalie: Mackenzie Blackwood → Scott Wedgewood -0.07; DAL goalie: Jake Oettinger → Casey DeSmith -0.02; Line 6 o-110 → 6 o-109
  • 12:18 PM 5.94 +0.03Injuries / lineup: Cale Makar (COL) back in +0.10; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.07; DAL lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-13); Cale Makar (COL) day-to-day; Zachary L'Heureux (COL) day-to-day; Line 6 o-109 → 6 o-105
  • 1:17 PM 5.94 no change
  • 2:17 PM 5.94 Line 6 o-105 → 6 o-122
  • 3:17 PM 5.94 Roope Hintz (DAL) off day-to-day; Line 6 o-122 → 6 o-123
  • 3:28 PM 5.94 no change
  • 4:13 PM 5.94 Line 6 o-123 → 5.5 o-139
  • 4:17 PM 5.94 no change
  • 5:17 PM 5.94 DAL lineup: Projected Oct 14 5:15 PM; Line 5.5 o-139 → 5.5 o-140
  • 6:17 PM 5.94 Cale Makar (COL) off day-to-day; Line 5.5 o-140 → 6.5 o+101
  • 7:17 PM 5.94 no change
  • 8:17 PM 5.94 Injuries / lineup: Nicolas Roy (COL) out +0.00; COL goalie Scott Wedgewood: Likely → Confirmed; Zachary L'Heureux (COL) off day-to-day; COL lineup: Evan Rawal Oct 14 8:08 PM; Line 6.5 o+101 → 6 o-115

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: DAL projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (DAL 2.40). At 5-on-5, DAL is bad (1.85) and COL is great (2.42); on the power play, DAL is mid (0.55) and COL is mid (0.57). DAL faces Scott Wedgewood, a Good goalie, grade 72 (-4.1%); COL faces Casey DeSmith, a Good goalie, grade 73 (-4.3%). Other factors: both teams played yesterday (-2% each); DAL's team speed costs 7.0%; injuries cost DAL 5.5%; COL's team speed adds 7.4%. DAL 2.40: 0.71 goals below what an average team would score (3.11). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.20 (its attack ranks #21 of 32, COL's defense #8); team speed -0.19 (it skates slower than COL, -7.0%); injuries -0.14 (missing players on both teams, net, -5.5%); Scott Wedgewood in goal -0.12 (a Good goalie, grade 72, -4.1%); back-to-back -0.06 (both teams played yesterday, -2.0%); power play -0.03 (its power play ranks #7, COL's penalty kill and penalty habits #3). COL 3.54: 0.43 goals above what an average team would score (3.11). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.38 (its attack ranks #1 of 32, DAL's defense #4); team speed +0.24 (it skates faster than DAL, +7.4%); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.8%). Holding it back: Casey DeSmith in goal -0.15 (a Good goalie, grade 73, -4.3%); back-to-back -0.07 (both teams played yesterday, -2.0%). The model projects 5.94 total goals against a 6 line, with a 40% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 5.5 to 6, toward the over. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (DAL 3, COL 2), so it stayed under 6 and the call was right.

Two rows per game (away, then home). ● = team projected high-scoring. Proj = (5v5 + PP + Oth) × goalie (Gl) × back-to-back (B2B) × team speed (Spd) × injuries (Inj). Hover or tap any underlined label for an explanation.