Monday, October 12, 2026

3 games · 0 flags · 1 of 3 went over the line · avg 6.3 goals (projected 5.9) · calls: SLAM – · 1U – · PASS – · AVOID 1 of 3 stayed under

Breakdown (for scoring):greatgoodmidbadtrash
TeamResultGoaliesProjection breakdown
TeamGProjTotal goalsProj totalP(7+)LinePickGoalie5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
OTT#12 OFF / #5 DEF43.30●5U 5.56.0043%5.5 → 5.57:00 PM ET
AVOID
✓ under		L. Ullmark ✓ Good 722.100.60+0.7%0.49–+2.1%+0.6%
NJD#10 OFF / #16 DEF12.69●N. Daws ✓ Trash 181.750.61-4.1%0.50–-2.1%+0.4%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
OTT2.10#13 of 322.04#16 of 322.10goals0.63#11 of 320.53#7 of 320.60goals
NJD1.91#24 of 321.87#2 of 321.75goals0.59#14 of 320.57#18 of 320.61goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?PlayerIf outPlayed?
OTTTim Stützle C-4.2%PlayedJordan Spence D+2.2%Played
Drake Batherson R-3.3%PlayedDrake Batherson R+1.5%Played
Dylan Cozens C-2.5%PlayedDylan Cozens C+1.4%Played
Shane Pinto C-1.6%PlayedTim Stützle C+1.2%Played
Claude Giroux R-1.3%PlayedTyler Kleven D+1.1%Played
NJDJack Hughes C-3.9%PlayedJack Hughes C+1.1%Played
Nico Hischier C-3.6%PlayedLuke Hughes D+1.0%Played
Jesper Bratt L-3.4%PlayedJesper Bratt L+0.9%Played
Timo Meier R-1.9%PlayedDougie Hamilton D+0.9%Played
Dougie Hamilton D-1.3%PlayedTimo Meier R+0.8%Played

Also out: OTT: Jake Sanderson -1.0% attack, +0.6% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.03 → 6.00)
  • 12:01 AM 6.03 first run
  • 2:09 AM 6.03 no change
  • 7:37 AM 5.90 -0.13NJD goalie: Nico Daws → Jake Allen -0.12; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 6 o-101 → 6 o-116
  • 11:17 AM 6.01 +0.12NJD goalie: Jake Allen → Nico Daws +0.12; OTT lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-10); NJD lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-10); Line 6 o-116 → 6 o-115
  • 12:17 PM 6.00 -0.02Injuries / lineup: Johnathan Kovacevic (NJD) back in -0.02; OTT goalie Linus Ullmark: Likely → Confirmed; OTT lineup: Andrew Wilimek Oct 12 11:39 AM; Luke Evangelista (NJD) day-to-day; NJD lineup: Mike Morreale Oct 12 11:41 AM; Line 6 o-115 → 5.5 o-127
  • 12:45 PM 6.00 Line 5.5 o-127 → 5.5 o-128
  • 1:18 PM 6.00 no change
  • 2:00 PM 6.00 no change
  • 2:17 PM 6.00 no change
  • 3:17 PM 6.00 no change
  • 4:17 PM 6.00 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.00 Line 5.5 o-128 → 5.5 o-127
  • 6:18 PM 6.00 no change
  • 6:31 PM 6.00 Line 5.5 o-127 → 5.5 o-128
  • 6:45 PM 6.00 no change

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: NJD projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (NJD 2.69); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, OTT is good (2.10) and NJD is trash (1.75); on the power play, OTT is good (0.60) and NJD is good (0.61). OTT faces Nico Daws, a Trash goalie, grade 18 (+0.7%); NJD faces Linus Ullmark, a Good goalie, grade 72 (-4.1%). Other factors: OTT's team speed adds 2.1%; NJD's team speed costs 2.1%. OTT 3.30: 0.20 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: team speed +0.07 (it skates faster than NJD, +2.1%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.06 (its attack ranks #13 of 32, NJD's defense #16); power play +0.03 (its power play ranks #11, NJD's penalty kill and penalty habits #7); Nico Daws in goal +0.02 (a Trash goalie, grade 18, +0.7%); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.6%). NJD 2.69: 0.41 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: power play +0.04 (its power play ranks #14, OTT's penalty kill and penalty habits #18); injuries +0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.4%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.29 (its attack ranks #24 of 32, OTT's defense #2); Linus Ullmark in goal -0.12 (a Good goalie, grade 72, -4.1%); team speed -0.06 (it skates slower than OTT, -2.1%). The model projects 6.00 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 43% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 6 to 5.5, toward the under. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (OTT 4, NJD 1), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.
VGK#3 OFF / #2 DEF23.22●6P 65.8942%6 → 68:00 PM ET
AVOID
push		C. Hart ✓ Trash 152.080.73-2.9%0.49–+0.2%+0.2%
MIN#8 OFF / #8 DEF42.67●J. Wallstedt ✓ Mid 591.660.50+1.1%0.49–-0.3%+0.1%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
VGK2.12#10 of 322.00#14 of 322.08goals0.71#2 of 320.57#19 of 320.73goals
MIN1.95#19 of 321.74#1 of 321.66goals0.68#4 of 320.41#1 of 320.50goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?PlayerIf outPlayed?
VGKJack Eichel C-4.8%PlayedTomas Hertl C+1.6%Played
Mitch Marner R-4.0%PlayedShea Theodore D+1.3%Played
Mark Stone R-3.9%PlayedMark Stone R+1.3%Played
Tomas Hertl C-3.7%PlayedIvan Barbashev L+1.2%Played
Ivan Barbashev L-1.8%PlayedNoah Hanifin D+1.1%Played
MINKirill Kaprizov L-5.4%PlayedQuinn Hughes D+1.8%Played
Matt Boldy L-4.3%PlayedKirill Kaprizov L+1.5%Played
Quinn Hughes D-2.5%PlayedJared Spurgeon D+1.0%Played
Joel Eriksson Ek C-2.4%PlayedMatt Boldy L+1.0%Played
Ryan Hartman R-0.9%PlayedBobby Brink R+0.9%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (5.89 → 5.89)
  • 12:01 AM 5.89 first run
  • 2:09 AM 5.89 no change
  • 7:37 AM 5.89 VGK goalie: Adin Hill → Carter Hart +0.02; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; MIN goalie: Filip Gustavsson → Jesper Wallstedt -0.01; Line 6 o-105 → 6 o-109
  • 11:17 AM 5.89 VGK lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-10); MIN lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-10); Line 6 o-109 → 6 o-123
  • 12:17 PM 5.89 MIN goalie Jesper Wallstedt: Likely → Confirmed; Zach Bogosian (MIN) day-to-day; MIN lineup: Dylan Loucks Oct 12 11:38 AM; Line 6 o-123 → 6 o-109
  • 12:45 PM 5.89 Zach Bogosian (MIN) off day-to-day; MIN lineup: Dylan Loucks Oct 12 12:20 PM; Line 6 o-109 → 6 o-108
  • 1:18 PM 5.89 no change
  • 2:00 PM 5.89 no change
  • 2:17 PM 5.89 no change
  • 3:17 PM 5.89 no change
  • 4:17 PM 5.89 no change
  • 5:17 PM 5.89 no change
  • 6:18 PM 5.89 Line 6 o-108 → 6 o-123
  • 6:31 PM 5.89 no change
  • 6:45 PM 5.89 Line 6 o-123 → 6 o-109
  • 7:18 PM 5.89 Line 6 o-109 → 6 o-108
  • 7:46 PM 5.89 VGK goalie Carter Hart: Likely → Confirmed; VGK lineup: Projected Oct 12 7:28 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: MIN projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (MIN 2.67). At 5-on-5, VGK is good (2.08) and MIN is trash (1.66); on the power play, VGK is great (0.73) and MIN is bad (0.50). VGK faces Jesper Wallstedt, a Mid goalie, grade 59 (-2.9%); MIN faces Carter Hart, a Trash goalie, grade 15 (+1.1%). VGK 3.22: 0.12 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: power play +0.16 (its power play ranks #2, MIN's penalty kill and penalty habits #19); 5-on-5 matchup +0.04 (its attack ranks #10 of 32, MIN's defense #14). Holding it back: Jesper Wallstedt in goal -0.10 (a Mid goalie, grade 59, -2.9%). MIN 2.67: 0.43 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: Carter Hart in goal +0.03 (a Trash goalie, grade 15, +1.1%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.38 (its attack ranks #19 of 32, VGK's defense #1); power play -0.07 (its power play ranks #4, VGK's penalty kill and penalty habits #1). The model projects 5.89 total goals against a 6 line, with a 42% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 6 goals (VGK 2, MIN 4), so it pushed 6.
FLA#19 OFF / #14 DEF32.89●8O 65.8944%6 → 61:00 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over		J. Markstrom ✓ OK 261.930.63-0.7%0.49–-2.8%-1.8%
BUF#16 OFF / #17 DEF53.00●C. Ellis ✓ OK 321.920.53-0.2%0.49–+3.1%-0.5%
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team5-on-5Power play
OFFOPP DEFProjOFFOPP DEFProj
FLA1.93#21 of 322.04#18 of 321.93goals0.64#8 of 320.54#12 of 320.63goals
BUF2.08#14 of 321.87#4 of 321.92goals0.48#27 of 320.60#24 of 320.53goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
TeamTop 5 attackersTop 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?PlayerIf outPlayed?
FLASam Reinhart C-3.5%PlayedNiko Mikkola D+0.8%Played
Sam Bennett C-3.1%PlayedUvis Balinskis D+0.8%Didn't play
Carter Verhaeghe C-2.8%PlayedCarter Verhaeghe C+0.8%Played
Matthew Tkachuk L-2.7%PlayedSam Bennett C+0.7%Played
Brad Marchand L-2.2%Didn't playSam Reinhart C+0.6%Played
BUFTage Thompson C-4.7%PlayedRasmus Dahlin D+1.3%Played
Rasmus Dahlin D-2.5%PlayedJosh Doan R+1.1%Played
Josh Doan R-1.9%PlayedNoah Ostlund C+1.0%Played
Jack Quinn R-1.9%PlayedZach Benson L+1.0%Played
Jason Zucker L-1.7%Didn't playTage Thompson C+0.8%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (5.90 → 5.89)
  • 12:01 AM 5.90 first run
  • 2:09 AM 5.90 no change
  • 7:37 AM 5.89 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 6.5 o-105 → 6 o-110
  • 11:17 AM 5.89 FLA goalie Jacob Markstrom: Likely → Confirmed; FLA lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-10); BUF lineup: Projected (Mike Harrington) Oct 12 10:09 AM; Line 6 o-110 → 6 o-118
  • 12:17 PM 5.89 BUF goalie Colten Ellis: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6 o-118 → 6 o-113
  • 12:45 PM 5.89 FLA lineup: Rob Darragh Oct 12 12:37 PM; BUF lineup: Matthew Fairburn Oct 12 12:38 PM; Line 6 o-113 → 6 o-114

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: FLA and BUF project under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (FLA 2.89, BUF 3.00). At 5-on-5, FLA is bad (1.93) and BUF is bad (1.92); on the power play, FLA is good (0.63) and BUF is bad (0.53). FLA faces Colten Ellis, an OK goalie, grade 32 (-0.7%); BUF faces Jacob Markstrom, an OK goalie, grade 26 (-0.2%). Other factors: FLA's team speed costs 2.8%; injuries cost FLA 1.8%; BUF's team speed adds 3.1%. FLA 2.89: 0.21 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: power play +0.06 (its power play ranks #8, BUF's penalty kill and penalty habits #12). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.11 (its attack ranks #21 of 32, BUF's defense #18); team speed -0.08 (it skates slower than BUF, -2.8%); injuries -0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.8%); Colten Ellis in goal -0.02 (an OK goalie, grade 32, -0.7%). BUF 3.00: 0.10 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: team speed +0.09 (it skates faster than FLA, +3.1%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.12 (its attack ranks #14 of 32, FLA's defense #4); power play -0.04 (its power play ranks #27, FLA's penalty kill and penalty habits #24); injuries -0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.5%). The model projects 5.89 total goals against a 6 line, with a 44% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 6.5 to 6, toward the under. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 8 goals (FLA 3, BUF 5), so it went over 6 and the call was wrong.
7:00 PM ETAVOID
U 5.5 ✓ under
OTT#12 OFF / #5 DEF43.30●
L. Ullmark ✓ Good 72
NJD#10 OFF / #16 DEF12.69●
N. Daws ✓ Trash 18
5 goals · proj 6.00 · P(7+) 43%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
OTT2.100.60+0.7%0.49–+2.1%+0.6%
NJD1.750.61-4.1%0.50–-2.1%+0.4%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
OTT2.10#13 of 322.04#16 of 322.10goals
NJD1.91#24 of 321.87#2 of 321.75goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
OTT0.63#11 of 320.53#7 of 320.60goals
NJD0.59#14 of 320.57#18 of 320.61goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPlayed?
OTT
Tim Stützle C-4.2%Played
Drake Batherson R-3.3%Played
Dylan Cozens C-2.5%Played
Shane Pinto C-1.6%Played
Claude Giroux R-1.3%Played
NJD
Jack Hughes C-3.9%Played
Nico Hischier C-3.6%Played
Jesper Bratt L-3.4%Played
Timo Meier R-1.9%Played
Dougie Hamilton D-1.3%Played
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?
OTT
Jordan Spence D+2.2%Played
Drake Batherson R+1.5%Played
Dylan Cozens C+1.4%Played
Tim Stützle C+1.2%Played
Tyler Kleven D+1.1%Played
NJD
Jack Hughes C+1.1%Played
Luke Hughes D+1.0%Played
Jesper Bratt L+0.9%Played
Dougie Hamilton D+0.9%Played
Timo Meier R+0.8%Played

Also out: OTT: Jake Sanderson -1.0% attack, +0.6% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.03 → 6.00)
  • 12:01 AM 6.03 first run
  • 2:09 AM 6.03 no change
  • 7:37 AM 5.90 -0.13NJD goalie: Nico Daws → Jake Allen -0.12; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 6 o-101 → 6 o-116
  • 11:17 AM 6.01 +0.12NJD goalie: Jake Allen → Nico Daws +0.12; OTT lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-10); NJD lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-10); Line 6 o-116 → 6 o-115
  • 12:17 PM 6.00 -0.02Injuries / lineup: Johnathan Kovacevic (NJD) back in -0.02; OTT goalie Linus Ullmark: Likely → Confirmed; OTT lineup: Andrew Wilimek Oct 12 11:39 AM; Luke Evangelista (NJD) day-to-day; NJD lineup: Mike Morreale Oct 12 11:41 AM; Line 6 o-115 → 5.5 o-127
  • 12:45 PM 6.00 Line 5.5 o-127 → 5.5 o-128
  • 1:18 PM 6.00 no change
  • 2:00 PM 6.00 no change
  • 2:17 PM 6.00 no change
  • 3:17 PM 6.00 no change
  • 4:17 PM 6.00 no change
  • 5:17 PM 6.00 Line 5.5 o-128 → 5.5 o-127
  • 6:18 PM 6.00 no change
  • 6:31 PM 6.00 Line 5.5 o-127 → 5.5 o-128
  • 6:45 PM 6.00 no change

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: NJD projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (NJD 2.69); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, OTT is good (2.10) and NJD is trash (1.75); on the power play, OTT is good (0.60) and NJD is good (0.61). OTT faces Nico Daws, a Trash goalie, grade 18 (+0.7%); NJD faces Linus Ullmark, a Good goalie, grade 72 (-4.1%). Other factors: OTT's team speed adds 2.1%; NJD's team speed costs 2.1%. OTT 3.30: 0.20 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: team speed +0.07 (it skates faster than NJD, +2.1%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.06 (its attack ranks #13 of 32, NJD's defense #16); power play +0.03 (its power play ranks #11, NJD's penalty kill and penalty habits #7); Nico Daws in goal +0.02 (a Trash goalie, grade 18, +0.7%); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.6%). NJD 2.69: 0.41 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: power play +0.04 (its power play ranks #14, OTT's penalty kill and penalty habits #18); injuries +0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.4%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.29 (its attack ranks #24 of 32, OTT's defense #2); Linus Ullmark in goal -0.12 (a Good goalie, grade 72, -4.1%); team speed -0.06 (it skates slower than OTT, -2.1%). The model projects 6.00 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 43% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 6 to 5.5, toward the under. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (OTT 4, NJD 1), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.
8:00 PM ETAVOID
P 6 push
VGK#3 OFF / #2 DEF23.22●
C. Hart ✓ Trash 15
MIN#8 OFF / #8 DEF42.67●
J. Wallstedt ✓ Mid 59
6 goals · proj 5.89 · P(7+) 42%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
VGK2.080.73-2.9%0.49–+0.2%+0.2%
MIN1.660.50+1.1%0.49–-0.3%+0.1%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
VGK2.12#10 of 322.00#14 of 322.08goals
MIN1.95#19 of 321.74#1 of 321.66goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
VGK0.71#2 of 320.57#19 of 320.73goals
MIN0.68#4 of 320.41#1 of 320.50goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPlayed?
VGK
Jack Eichel C-4.8%Played
Mitch Marner R-4.0%Played
Mark Stone R-3.9%Played
Tomas Hertl C-3.7%Played
Ivan Barbashev L-1.8%Played
MIN
Kirill Kaprizov L-5.4%Played
Matt Boldy L-4.3%Played
Quinn Hughes D-2.5%Played
Joel Eriksson Ek C-2.4%Played
Ryan Hartman R-0.9%Played
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?
VGK
Tomas Hertl C+1.6%Played
Shea Theodore D+1.3%Played
Mark Stone R+1.3%Played
Ivan Barbashev L+1.2%Played
Noah Hanifin D+1.1%Played
MIN
Quinn Hughes D+1.8%Played
Kirill Kaprizov L+1.5%Played
Jared Spurgeon D+1.0%Played
Matt Boldy L+1.0%Played
Bobby Brink R+0.9%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (5.89 → 5.89)
  • 12:01 AM 5.89 first run
  • 2:09 AM 5.89 no change
  • 7:37 AM 5.89 VGK goalie: Adin Hill → Carter Hart +0.02; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; MIN goalie: Filip Gustavsson → Jesper Wallstedt -0.01; Line 6 o-105 → 6 o-109
  • 11:17 AM 5.89 VGK lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-10); MIN lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-10); Line 6 o-109 → 6 o-123
  • 12:17 PM 5.89 MIN goalie Jesper Wallstedt: Likely → Confirmed; Zach Bogosian (MIN) day-to-day; MIN lineup: Dylan Loucks Oct 12 11:38 AM; Line 6 o-123 → 6 o-109
  • 12:45 PM 5.89 Zach Bogosian (MIN) off day-to-day; MIN lineup: Dylan Loucks Oct 12 12:20 PM; Line 6 o-109 → 6 o-108
  • 1:18 PM 5.89 no change
  • 2:00 PM 5.89 no change
  • 2:17 PM 5.89 no change
  • 3:17 PM 5.89 no change
  • 4:17 PM 5.89 no change
  • 5:17 PM 5.89 no change
  • 6:18 PM 5.89 Line 6 o-108 → 6 o-123
  • 6:31 PM 5.89 no change
  • 6:45 PM 5.89 Line 6 o-123 → 6 o-109
  • 7:18 PM 5.89 Line 6 o-109 → 6 o-108
  • 7:46 PM 5.89 VGK goalie Carter Hart: Likely → Confirmed; VGK lineup: Projected Oct 12 7:28 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: MIN projects under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (MIN 2.67). At 5-on-5, VGK is good (2.08) and MIN is trash (1.66); on the power play, VGK is great (0.73) and MIN is bad (0.50). VGK faces Jesper Wallstedt, a Mid goalie, grade 59 (-2.9%); MIN faces Carter Hart, a Trash goalie, grade 15 (+1.1%). VGK 3.22: 0.12 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: power play +0.16 (its power play ranks #2, MIN's penalty kill and penalty habits #19); 5-on-5 matchup +0.04 (its attack ranks #10 of 32, MIN's defense #14). Holding it back: Jesper Wallstedt in goal -0.10 (a Mid goalie, grade 59, -2.9%). MIN 2.67: 0.43 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: Carter Hart in goal +0.03 (a Trash goalie, grade 15, +1.1%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.38 (its attack ranks #19 of 32, VGK's defense #1); power play -0.07 (its power play ranks #4, VGK's penalty kill and penalty habits #1). The model projects 5.89 total goals against a 6 line, with a 42% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 6 goals (VGK 2, MIN 4), so it pushed 6.
1:00 PM ETAVOID
O 6 ✗ went over
FLA#19 OFF / #14 DEF32.89●
J. Markstrom ✓ OK 26
BUF#16 OFF / #17 DEF53.00●
C. Ellis ✓ OK 32
8 goals · proj 5.89 · P(7+) 44%
5v5PPGlOthB2BSpdInj
FLA1.930.63-0.7%0.49–-2.8%-1.8%
BUF1.920.53-0.2%0.49–+3.1%-0.5%
Why this call
Team5-on-5
OFFOPP DEFProj
FLA1.93#21 of 322.04#18 of 321.93goals
BUF2.08#14 of 321.87#4 of 321.92goals
TeamPower play
OFFOPP DEFProj
FLA0.64#8 of 320.54#12 of 320.63goals
BUF0.48#27 of 320.60#24 of 320.53goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
PlayerIf outPlayed?
FLA
Sam Reinhart C-3.5%Played
Sam Bennett C-3.1%Played
Carter Verhaeghe C-2.8%Played
Matthew Tkachuk L-2.7%Played
Brad Marchand L-2.2%Didn't play
BUF
Tage Thompson C-4.7%Played
Rasmus Dahlin D-2.5%Played
Josh Doan R-1.9%Played
Jack Quinn R-1.9%Played
Jason Zucker L-1.7%Didn't play
Top 5 defenders
PlayerIf outPlayed?
FLA
Niko Mikkola D+0.8%Played
Uvis Balinskis D+0.8%Didn't play
Carter Verhaeghe C+0.8%Played
Sam Bennett C+0.7%Played
Sam Reinhart C+0.6%Played
BUF
Rasmus Dahlin D+1.3%Played
Josh Doan R+1.1%Played
Noah Ostlund C+1.0%Played
Zach Benson L+1.0%Played
Tage Thompson C+0.8%Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (5.90 → 5.89)
  • 12:01 AM 5.90 first run
  • 2:09 AM 5.90 no change
  • 7:37 AM 5.89 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 6.5 o-105 → 6 o-110
  • 11:17 AM 5.89 FLA goalie Jacob Markstrom: Likely → Confirmed; FLA lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-10); BUF lineup: Projected (Mike Harrington) Oct 12 10:09 AM; Line 6 o-110 → 6 o-118
  • 12:17 PM 5.89 BUF goalie Colten Ellis: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6 o-118 → 6 o-113
  • 12:45 PM 5.89 FLA lineup: Rob Darragh Oct 12 12:37 PM; BUF lineup: Matthew Fairburn Oct 12 12:38 PM; Line 6 o-113 → 6 o-114

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: FLA and BUF project under the 3.09-goal high-scoring cutoff (FLA 2.89, BUF 3.00). At 5-on-5, FLA is bad (1.93) and BUF is bad (1.92); on the power play, FLA is good (0.63) and BUF is bad (0.53). FLA faces Colten Ellis, an OK goalie, grade 32 (-0.7%); BUF faces Jacob Markstrom, an OK goalie, grade 26 (-0.2%). Other factors: FLA's team speed costs 2.8%; injuries cost FLA 1.8%; BUF's team speed adds 3.1%. FLA 2.89: 0.21 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: power play +0.06 (its power play ranks #8, BUF's penalty kill and penalty habits #12). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.11 (its attack ranks #21 of 32, BUF's defense #18); team speed -0.08 (it skates slower than BUF, -2.8%); injuries -0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.8%); Colten Ellis in goal -0.02 (an OK goalie, grade 32, -0.7%). BUF 3.00: 0.10 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: team speed +0.09 (it skates faster than FLA, +3.1%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.12 (its attack ranks #14 of 32, FLA's defense #4); power play -0.04 (its power play ranks #27, FLA's penalty kill and penalty habits #24); injuries -0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.5%). The model projects 5.89 total goals against a 6 line, with a 44% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 6.5 to 6, toward the under. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 8 goals (FLA 3, BUF 5), so it went over 6 and the call was wrong.

Two rows per game (away, then home). ● = team projected high-scoring. Proj = (5v5 + PP + Oth) × goalie (Gl) × back-to-back (B2B) × team speed (Spd) × injuries (Inj). Hover or tap any underlined label for an explanation.