Saturday, October 3, 2026

13 games · 2 flags · 5 of 13 went over the line · avg 5.8 goals (projected 5.9) · flags 1-1-0 (-0.10u at close) · calls: 🔨 SLAM 1-0-0 · 1U 0-1-0 · PASS – · AVOID 7 of 11 stayed under

Breakdown (for scoring):greatgoodmidbadtrash

Team

Result

Goalies

Projection breakdown

Team

Proj

Total goals

Proj total

P(7+)

Line

Pick

Goalie

5v5

Oth

B2B

Spd

Inj

STL#29 OFF / #11 DEF

2.39●

7O 6.5

6.39

50%

6.5 → 6.5

9:00 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over

J. Binnington ✓ Trash 9

1.91

0.44

-2.0%

0.40

-8.0%

-5.4%

+1.9%

COL#1 OFF / #3 DEF

4.00●

M. Blackwood ✓ Mid 48

2.41

0.63

+2.3%

0.40

+6.5%

+6.1%

+0.9%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
STL	2.01#16 of 32	1.95#4 of 32	1.91goals	0.45#31 of 32	0.54#10 of 32	0.44goals
COL	2.48#1 of 32	2.00#12 of 32	2.41goals	0.64#4 of 32	0.54#10 of 32	0.63goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Played?	Player	If out	Played?
STL	Robert Thomas C	-2.5%	Played	Dylan Holloway L	+0.8%	Played
	Jimmy Snuggerud R	-1.8%	Played	Cam Fowler D	+0.7%	Played
	Dylan Holloway L	-1.7%	Played	Dalibor Dvorsky R	+0.7%	Played
	Pavel Buchnevich L	-1.3%	Played	Jake Neighbours L	+0.7%	Played
	Jake Neighbours L	-0.9%	Played	Jimmy Snuggerud R	+0.6%	Played
COL	Nathan MacKinnon C	-6.5%	Played	Sam Malinski D	+1.5%	Played
	Martin Necas C	-4.9%	Played	Martin Necas C	+1.4%	Played
	Cale Makar D	-3.2%	Played	Nathan MacKinnon C	+1.2%	Played
	Brock Nelson C	-2.7%	Played	Cale Makar D	+0.8%	Played
	Artturi Lehkonen L	-2.4%	Played	Brett Kulak D	+0.8%	Played

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.

How the projection moved on game day (6.25 → 6.39)

12:21 AM 6.25 first run
12:28 AM 6.25 no change
12:43 AM 6.25 Injuries / lineup: Alexey Toropchenko (STL) out +0.00
12:53 AM 6.25 no change
1:43 AM 6.25 no change
2:36 AM 6.25 no change
11:18 AM 6.25 COL goalie: Mackenzie Blackwood → Scott Wedgewood +0.00; STL lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-02)
1:17 PM 6.25 COL goalie: Scott Wedgewood → Mackenzie Blackwood +0.00
1:51 PM 6.25 no change
2:42 PM 6.25 no change
2:50 PM 6.25 no change
3:17 PM 6.25 no change
5:00 PM 6.39 +0.14Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.12; Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated +0.02; Line 6.5 o+110 → 6.5 o-100
5:17 PM 6.39 no change
6:17 PM 6.39 no change
6:43 PM 6.39 no change
6:45 PM 6.39 no change
7:17 PM 6.39 no change
7:45 PM 6.39 no change
8:18 PM 6.39 STL goalie Jordan Binnington: Likely → Confirmed; STL lineup: Chris Pinkert Oct 3 7:57 PM
8:44 PM 6.39 STL lineup: Jeremy Rutherford Oct 3 8:42 PM; COL goalie Mackenzie Blackwood: Likely → Confirmed; COL lineup: Bailey Curtis Oct 3 8:41 PM
8:45 PM 6.39 no change

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: STL projects under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (STL 2.39). The 6.39 total looks high, but most of it comes from COL; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, STL is bad (1.91) and COL is great (2.41); on the power play, STL is trash (0.44) and COL is good (0.63). STL faces Mackenzie Blackwood, a Mid goalie, grade 48 (-2.0%); COL faces Jordan Binnington, a Trash goalie, grade 9 (+2.3%). Other factors: STL played yesterday (-8%); STL's team speed costs 5.4%; injuries help STL 1.9%; COL's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); COL's team speed adds 6.1%. STL 2.39: 0.62 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: injuries +0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.9%). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.22 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.14 (its attack ranks #16 of 32, COL's defense #4); team speed -0.13 (it skates slower than COL, -5.4%); power play -0.12 (its power play ranks #31, COL's penalty kill and penalty habits #10); Mackenzie Blackwood in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 48, -2.0%). COL 4.00: 0.99 goals above what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.35 (its attack ranks #1 of 32, STL's defense #12); team speed +0.23 (it skates faster than STL, +6.1%); back-to-back +0.23 (STL played yesterday, +6.5%); Jordan Binnington in goal +0.08 (a Trash goalie, grade 9, +2.3%); power play +0.07 (its power play ranks #4, STL's penalty kill and penalty habits #10); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.9%). The model projects 6.39 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 50% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (STL 1, COL 6), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

MTL#12 OFF / #20 DEF

3.27●

11O 6.5

6.35

49%

6.5 → 6.5

7:00 PM ET
🔨 SLAM
W
paper W +0.90u

J. Dobes ✓ Strong 81

2.09

0.52

+4.1%

0.40

–

+3.3%

+0.8%

PIT#4 OFF / #7 DEF

3.08●

A. Silovs ✓ Trash 3

2.39

0.69

-5.3%

0.40

–

-3.1%

-3.2%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
MTL	2.14#10 of 32	2.01#15 of 32	2.09goals	0.57#16 of 32	0.51#6 of 32	0.52goals
PIT	2.32#2 of 32	2.12#25 of 32	2.39goals	0.63#6 of 32	0.60#26 of 32	0.69goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Played?	Player	If out	Played?
MTL	Cole Caufield R	-5.3%	Played	Lane Hutson D	+2.0%	Played
	Nick Suzuki C	-5.0%	Played	Cole Caufield R	+1.2%	Played
	Juraj Slafkovský L	-3.3%	Played	Zachary Bolduc R	+1.2%	Played
	Ivan Demidov R	-2.4%	Played	Nick Suzuki C	+1.1%	Played
	Lane Hutson D	-2.2%	Played	Ivan Demidov R	+0.8%	Played
PIT	Sidney Crosby C	-3.5%	Played	Tommy Novak C	+1.0%	Played
	Bryan Rust R	-3.2%	Didn't play	Ben Kindel C	+0.9%	Played
	Rickard Rakell R	-2.6%	Played	Samuel Girard D	+0.8%	Played
	Evgeni Malkin C	-2.4%	Played	Egor Chinakhov R	+0.5%	Played
	Erik Karlsson D	-1.8%	Played	Justin Brazeau R	+0.4%	Didn't play

How the projection moved on game day (6.34 → 6.35)

12:21 AM 6.34 first run
12:28 AM 6.34 no change
12:43 AM 6.34 no change
12:53 AM 6.34 no change
1:43 AM 6.34 no change
2:36 AM 6.34 no change
11:18 AM 6.34 no change
1:17 PM 6.34 Injuries / lineup: Blake Lizotte (PIT) out, Ben Kindel (PIT) back in +0.00; MTL goalie Jakub Dobes: Unconfirmed → Confirmed; PIT goalie Arturs Silovs: Unconfirmed → Confirmed; Ben Kindel (PIT) day-to-day; Andrei Kuzmenko (PIT) off day-to-day
1:51 PM 6.34 no change
2:42 PM 6.34 no change
2:50 PM 6.34 no change
3:17 PM 6.34 no change
5:00 PM 6.35 +0.01Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated +0.01; Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o-105
5:17 PM 6.35 no change
6:17 PM 6.35 Line 6.5 o-105 → 6.5 o-110
6:43 PM 6.35 Injuries / lineup: Ville Koivunen (PIT) out, Blake Lizotte (PIT) back in +0.00; Ben Kindel (PIT) off day-to-day; PIT lineup: @penguins Oct 3 6:39 PM

🔨 SLAM: both teams project as high-scoring (MTL 3.27, PIT 3.08; cutoff 2.98), the line is 6.5, and both are good or better at 5-on-5, the strongest over spot the model has. At 5-on-5, MTL is good (2.09) and PIT is great (2.39); on the power play, MTL is bad (0.52) and PIT is great (0.69). MTL faces Arturs Silovs, a Trash goalie, grade 3 (+4.1%); PIT faces Jakub Dobes, a Strong goalie, grade 81 (-5.3%). Only PIT faces a Strong or Good goalie, so the avoid rule for two Strong / Good goalies doesn't apply. Other factors: MTL's team speed adds 3.3%; PIT's team speed costs 3.1%; injuries cost PIT 3.2%. MTL 3.27: 0.25 goals above what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: Arturs Silovs in goal +0.12 (a Trash goalie, grade 3, +4.1%); team speed +0.10 (it skates faster than PIT, +3.3%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.04 (its attack ranks #10 of 32, PIT's defense #15); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.8%). Holding it back: power play -0.04 (its power play ranks #16, PIT's penalty kill and penalty habits #6). PIT 3.08: 0.07 goals above what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.34 (its attack ranks #2 of 32, MTL's defense #25); power play +0.13 (its power play ranks #6, MTL's penalty kill and penalty habits #26). Holding it back: Jakub Dobes in goal -0.19 (a Strong goalie, grade 81, -5.3%); team speed -0.10 (it skates slower than MTL, -3.1%); injuries -0.10 (missing players on both teams, net, -3.2%). The model projects 6.35 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 49% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over 55% of the time at the opening line and 56.5% at the closing line in 2021-26. Final: 11 goals (MTL 5, PIT 6), so it went over 6.5 and the call was right.

SEA#27 OFF / #18 DEF

2.85●

4U 6.5

6.29

49%

6.5 → 6.5

7:00 PM ET
AVOID was 1U
✓ under

P. Grubauer ✓ Trash 6

1.96

0.53

+1.5%

0.40

–

-4.7%

+2.0%

EDM#2 OFF / #24 DEF

3.44●

D. Levi ✓ Trash 13

2.28

0.64

+3.0%

0.40

–

+5.1%

-4.2%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
SEA	2.01#17 of 32	2.01#14 of 32	1.96goals	0.53#21 of 32	0.56#14 of 32	0.53goals
EDM	2.25#4 of 32	2.08#20 of 32	2.28goals	0.70#1 of 32	0.50#5 of 32	0.64goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Played?	Player	If out	Played?
SEA	Jordan Eberle R	-2.0%	Played	Jordan Eberle R	+0.9%	Played
	Jared McCann L	-1.6%	Played	Shane Wright C	+0.8%	Played
	Bobby McMann C	-1.5%	Played	Matty Beniers C	+0.7%	Played
	Matty Beniers C	-1.1%	Played	Ryker Evans D	+0.6%	Played
	Shane Wright C	-0.9%	Played	Brandon Montour D	+0.6%	Played
EDM	Connor McDavid C	-7.9%	Played	Connor McDavid C	+1.6%	Played
	Leon Draisaitl C	-5.9%	Played	Leon Draisaitl C	+1.4%	Played
	Evan Bouchard D	-4.6%	Played	Evan Bouchard D	+1.4%	Played
	Zach Hyman L	-3.5%	Didn't play	Vasily Podkolzin R	+1.3%	Played
	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C	-2.3%	Didn't play	Zach Hyman L	+0.8%	Didn't play

How the projection moved on game day (6.11 → 6.29)

12:21 AM 6.11 first run
12:28 AM 6.11 no change
12:43 AM 6.11 no change
12:53 AM 6.11 no change
1:43 AM 6.11 no change
2:36 AM 6.11 no change
11:18 AM 6.11 EDM goalie: Devon Levi → Tristan Jarry +0.00
1:17 PM 6.11 Injuries / lineup: Jacob Melanson (SEA) out +0.00
1:51 PM 6.11 no change
2:42 PM 6.11 no change
2:50 PM 6.11 no change
3:17 PM 6.11 no change
5:00 PM 6.15 +0.04Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.02; EDM goalie Tristan Jarry: rating updated +0.01; Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated +0.01; Line 6.5 o-110 → 6.5 o-115
5:17 PM 6.15 no change
6:17 PM 6.15 Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-118
6:43 PM 6.29 +0.14SEA goalie: Joey Daccord → Philipp Grubauer +0.15; EDM goalie: Tristan Jarry → Devon Levi -0.01; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.01; Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-120

AVOID: SEA projects under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (SEA 2.85). The 6.29 total looks high, but most of it comes from EDM; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, SEA is mid (1.96) and EDM is great (2.28); on the power play, SEA is bad (0.53) and EDM is good (0.64). SEA faces Devon Levi, a Trash goalie, grade 13 (+1.5%); EDM faces Philipp Grubauer, a Trash goalie, grade 6 (+3.0%). Other factors: SEA's team speed costs 4.7%; injuries help SEA 2.0%; EDM's team speed adds 5.1%; injuries cost EDM 4.2%. SEA 2.85: 0.16 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: injuries +0.06 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.0%); Devon Levi in goal +0.04 (a Trash goalie, grade 13, +1.5%). Holding it back: team speed -0.14 (it skates slower than EDM, -4.7%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.09 (its attack ranks #17 of 32, EDM's defense #14); power play -0.03 (its power play ranks #21, EDM's penalty kill and penalty habits #14). EDM 3.44: 0.43 goals above what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.23 (its attack ranks #4 of 32, SEA's defense #20); team speed +0.17 (it skates faster than SEA, +5.1%); Philipp Grubauer in goal +0.10 (a Trash goalie, grade 6, +3.0%); power play +0.08 (its power play ranks #1, SEA's penalty kill and penalty habits #5). Holding it back: injuries -0.15 (missing players on both teams, net, -4.2%). The model projects 6.29 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 49% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 4 goals (SEA 1, EDM 3), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

WSH#11 OFF / #19 DEF

2.65●

4U 6.5

6.23

48%

6.5 → 6.5

7:00 PM ET
AVOID
✓ under

C. Lindgren ✓ OK 22

2.14

0.52

-8.0%

0.40

-8.0%

+1.4%

+1.1%

TBL#10 OFF / #12 DEF

3.57●

A. Vasilevskiy ✓ Strong 92

2.28

0.66

+0.2%

0.40

+6.5%

-1.1%

+1.5%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
WSH	2.24#5 of 32	1.96#9 of 32	2.14goals	0.52#23 of 32	0.55#12 of 32	0.52goals
TBL	2.20#7 of 32	2.13#27 of 32	2.28goals	0.54#18 of 32	0.68#31 of 32	0.66goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Played?	Player	If out	Played?
WSH	Alex Ovechkin L	-3.6%	Played	Jakob Chychrun D	+1.2%	Played
	Tom Wilson R	-3.2%	Played	Rasmus Sandin D	+0.8%	Didn't play
	Dylan Strome C	-2.6%	Played	Justin Sourdif C	+0.7%	Played
	Jakob Chychrun D	-2.6%	Played	Dylan Strome C	+0.5%	Played
	Aliaksei Protas L	-1.7%	Played	Ethen Frank R	+0.5%	Didn't play
TBL	Nikita Kucherov R	-7.2%	Played	Gage Goncalves C	+1.2%	Played
	Jake Guentzel C	-5.2%	Played	Pontus Holmberg R	+1.1%	Played
	Brandon Hagel L	-5.0%	Played	Nikita Kucherov R	+1.0%	Played
	Brayden Point C	-3.2%	Played	Jake Guentzel C	+0.9%	Played
	Anthony Cirelli C	-2.8%	Played	Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	+0.8%	Played

How the projection moved on game day (6.07 → 6.23)

12:21 AM 6.07 first run
12:28 AM 6.07 no change
12:43 AM 6.07 no change
12:53 AM 6.07 no change
1:43 AM 6.07 no change
2:36 AM 6.07 no change
11:18 AM 6.07 WSH lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-02); TBL goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy: Unconfirmed → Likely; TBL lineup: Benjamin Pierce Oct 3 10:39 AM
1:17 PM 6.07 no change
1:51 PM 6.07 no change
2:42 PM 6.07 no change
2:50 PM 6.07 no change
3:17 PM 6.07 no change
5:00 PM 6.23 +0.16Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.17; Line 6.5 o+103 → 6.5 o+102
5:17 PM 6.23 no change
6:17 PM 6.23 no change
6:43 PM 6.23 Injuries / lineup: Max Crozier (TBL) out, Emil Lilleberg (TBL) back in -0.00; TBL goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy: Likely → Confirmed; TBL lineup: Gabby Shirley Oct 3 6:36 PM; Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o-102

AVOID: WSH projects under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (WSH 2.65). The 6.23 total looks high, but most of it comes from TBL; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, WSH is good (2.14) and TBL is great (2.28); on the power play, WSH is bad (0.52) and TBL is great (0.66). WSH faces Andrei Vasilevskiy, a Strong goalie, grade 92 (-8.0%); TBL faces Charlie Lindgren, an OK goalie, grade 22 (+0.2%). Other factors: WSH played yesterday (-8%); TBL's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); injuries help TBL 1.5%. WSH 2.65: 0.36 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.09 (its attack ranks #5 of 32, TBL's defense #9); team speed +0.03 (it skates faster than TBL, +1.4%); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.1%). Holding it back: Andrei Vasilevskiy in goal -0.24 (a Strong goalie, grade 92, -8.0%); back-to-back -0.23 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); power play -0.03 (its power play ranks #23, TBL's penalty kill and penalty habits #12). TBL 3.57: 0.56 goals above what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.23 (its attack ranks #7 of 32, WSH's defense #27); back-to-back +0.22 (WSH played yesterday, +6.5%); power play +0.10 (its power play ranks #18, WSH's penalty kill and penalty habits #31); injuries +0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.5%). Holding it back: team speed -0.04 (it skates slower than WSH, -1.1%). The model projects 6.23 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 48% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 5.5 to 6.5, toward the over. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 4 goals (WSH 1, TBL 3), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

UTA#9 OFF / #5 DEF

3.10●

5U 6.5

6.09

47%

6.5 → 6.5

7:00 PM ET
1U
L
paper L -1.00u

S. Cossa ✓ OK 23

2.22

0.64

-6.0%

0.40

–

+1.9%

-0.5%

CBJ#14 OFF / #15 DEF

2.98●

J. Greaves ✓ Strong 83

2.02

0.53

+0.1%

0.40

–

-1.4%

+2.4%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
UTA	2.27#3 of 32	2.01#15 of 32	2.22goals	0.59#11 of 32	0.60#26 of 32	0.64goals
CBJ	2.12#11 of 32	1.96#7 of 32	2.02goals	0.52#25 of 32	0.57#21 of 32	0.53goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Played?	Player	If out	Played?
UTA	Dylan Guenther R	-4.0%	Played	Clayton Keller R	+1.6%	Played
	Clayton Keller R	-3.8%	Played	Nate Schmidt D	+1.4%	Played
	Nick Schmaltz C	-3.6%	Played	Nick Schmaltz C	+1.0%	Played
	Logan Cooley C	-2.2%	Played	Barrett Hayton C	+0.9%	Played
	Mikhail Sergachev D	-1.4%	Played	Michael Carcone L	+0.9%	Played
CBJ	Zach Werenski D	-2.5%	Played	Kent Johnson C	+0.8%	Played
	Adam Fantilli C	-2.2%	Played	Adam Fantilli C	+0.8%	Played
	Sean Monahan C	-1.5%	Played	Zach Werenski D	+0.6%	Played
	Dmitri Voronkov L	-1.4%	Played	Dmitri Voronkov L	+0.5%	Played
	Charlie Coyle C	-1.3%	Played	Denton Mateychuk D	+0.4%	Played

How the projection moved on game day (6.01 → 6.09)

12:21 AM 6.01 first run
12:28 AM 6.01 no change
12:43 AM 6.01 no change
12:53 AM 6.01 no change
1:43 AM 6.01 no change
2:36 AM 6.01 no change
11:18 AM 6.01 no change
1:17 PM 6.01 no change
1:51 PM 6.01 no change
2:42 PM 6.01 no change
2:50 PM 6.01 no change
3:17 PM 6.01 no change
5:00 PM 6.03 +0.02Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.02; Line 6.5 o+112 → 6.5 o+113
5:17 PM 6.03 no change
6:17 PM 6.03 Line 6.5 o+113 → 6.5 o+112
6:43 PM 6.09 +0.06UTA goalie: Karel Vejmelka → Sebastian Cossa +0.06; UTA lineup: Utah Mammoth Oct 3 6:33 PM; Line 6.5 o+112 → 6.5 o+111

1U: both teams project as high-scoring (UTA 3.10, CBJ 2.98; cutoff 2.98) and the line is 6.5; UTA is great at 5-on-5 and can carry the over, but CBJ is only mid, so it's an over but not a slam. At 5-on-5, UTA is great (2.22) and CBJ is mid (2.02); on the power play, UTA is good (0.64) and CBJ is mid (0.53). UTA faces Jet Greaves, a Strong goalie, grade 83 (-6.0%); CBJ faces Sebastian Cossa, an OK goalie, grade 23 (+0.1%). Only UTA faces a Strong or Good goalie, so the avoid rule for two Strong / Good goalies doesn't apply. Other factors: injuries help CBJ 2.4%. UTA 3.10: 0.09 goals above what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.17 (its attack ranks #3 of 32, CBJ's defense #15); power play +0.08 (its power play ranks #11, CBJ's penalty kill and penalty habits #26); team speed +0.06 (it skates faster than CBJ, +1.9%). Holding it back: Jet Greaves in goal -0.19 (a Strong goalie, grade 83, -6.0%); injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.5%). CBJ 2.98: 0.03 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: injuries +0.07 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.4%). Holding it back: team speed -0.04 (it skates slower than UTA, -1.4%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.03 (its attack ranks #11 of 32, UTA's defense #7); power play -0.03 (its power play ranks #25, UTA's penalty kill and penalty habits #21). The model projects 6.09 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 47% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over 58% of the time at the opening line and 59% at the closing line in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (UTA 4, CBJ 1), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was wrong.

BOS#18 OFF / #22 DEF

2.54●

5U 6.5

5.99

46%

6.5 → 6.5

8:00 PM ET
AVOID
✓ under

M. DiPietro ✓ OK 24

1.99

0.49

-1.0%

0.40

-8.0%

-2.1%

-0.9%

MIN#8 OFF / #6 DEF

3.45●

J. Wallstedt ✓ OK 34

2.12

0.67

–

0.40

+6.5%

+1.6%

+0.2%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
BOS	2.09#14 of 32	1.96#6 of 32	1.99goals	0.52#24 of 32	0.52#7 of 32	0.49goals
MIN	2.08#15 of 32	2.09#22 of 32	2.12goals	0.62#9 of 32	0.60#25 of 32	0.67goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Played?	Player	If out	Played?
BOS	David Pastrnak R	-4.2%	Played	David Pastrnak R	+0.9%	Played
	Morgan Geekie C	-3.3%	Played	Mason Lohrei D	+0.7%	Played
	Pavel Zacha C	-2.4%	Played	Morgan Geekie C	+0.7%	Played
	Elias Lindholm C	-1.4%	Played	Casey Mittelstadt C	+0.5%	Played
	Charlie McAvoy D	-1.1%	Didn't play	Fraser Minten C	+0.3%	Played
MIN	Kirill Kaprizov L	-5.3%	Played	Quinn Hughes D	+1.8%	Played
	Matt Boldy L	-4.2%	Played	Kirill Kaprizov L	+1.5%	Played
	Quinn Hughes D	-2.5%	Played	Jared Spurgeon D	+1.0%	Played
	Joel Eriksson Ek C	-2.3%	Played	Matt Boldy L	+1.0%	Played
	Ryan Hartman R	-0.8%	Played	Bobby Brink R	+0.9%	Played

How the projection moved on game day (5.77 → 5.99)

12:21 AM 5.77 first run
12:28 AM 5.77 no change
12:43 AM 5.77 no change
12:53 AM 5.77 no change
1:43 AM 5.77 no change
2:36 AM 5.77 no change
11:18 AM 5.77 BOS goalie: Jeremy Swayman → Michael DiPietro +0.00; BOS lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-02)
1:17 PM 5.77 MIN goalie Jesper Wallstedt: Unconfirmed → Confirmed; MIN lineup: Dylan Loucks Oct 3 11:51 AM
1:51 PM 5.77 no change
2:42 PM 5.77 no change
2:50 PM 5.77 no change
3:17 PM 5.77 no change
5:00 PM 5.99 +0.22BOS goalie Michael DiPietro: rating updated +0.21; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.01; Line 6.5 o+110 → 6.5 o+104
5:17 PM 5.99 no change
6:17 PM 5.99 no change
6:43 PM 5.99 no change
6:45 PM 5.99 no change
7:17 PM 5.99 BOS goalie Michael DiPietro: Unconfirmed → Confirmed
7:45 PM 5.99 BOS lineup: Belle Fraser Oct 3 7:41 PM; Line 6.5 o+104 → 6.5 o+103

AVOID: BOS projects under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (BOS 2.54). At 5-on-5, BOS is mid (1.99) and MIN is good (2.12); on the power play, BOS is bad (0.49) and MIN is great (0.67). BOS faces Jesper Wallstedt, an OK goalie, grade 34 (-1.0%); MIN faces Michael DiPietro, an OK goalie, grade 24 (+0.0%). Other factors: BOS played yesterday (-8%); BOS's team speed costs 2.1%; MIN's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%). BOS 2.54: 0.47 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.23 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); power play -0.07 (its power play ranks #24, MIN's penalty kill and penalty habits #7); 5-on-5 matchup -0.07 (its attack ranks #14 of 32, MIN's defense #6); team speed -0.05 (it skates slower than MIN, -2.1%); Jesper Wallstedt in goal -0.03 (an OK goalie, grade 34, -1.0%); injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.9%). MIN 3.45: 0.44 goals above what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.21 (BOS played yesterday, +6.5%); power play +0.11 (its power play ranks #9, BOS's penalty kill and penalty habits #25); 5-on-5 matchup +0.06 (its attack ranks #15 of 32, BOS's defense #22); team speed +0.05 (it skates faster than BOS, +1.6%). The model projects 5.99 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 46% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 6 to 6.5, toward the over. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (BOS 1, MIN 4), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

CHI#32 OFF / #31 DEF

2.54●

7O 6.5

5.99

46%

6.5 → 6.5

7:00 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over

S. Knight ✓ Mid 54

1.83

0.46

-0.5%

0.40

–

-3.1%

-1.6%

BUF#16 OFF / #23 DEF

3.45●

U. Luukkonen ✓ OK 29

2.52

0.54

-2.5%

0.40

–

+3.4%

-0.9%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CHI	1.82#31 of 32	2.06#19 of 32	1.83goals	0.45#30 of 32	0.56#15 of 32	0.46goals
BUF	2.17#8 of 32	2.38#32 of 32	2.52goals	0.52#22 of 32	0.56#15 of 32	0.54goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Played?	Player	If out	Played?
CHI	Tyler Bertuzzi L	-2.3%	Played	Andrew Mangiapane L	+0.5%	Didn't play
	Connor Bedard C	-2.1%	Didn't play	Tyler Bertuzzi L	+0.4%	Played
	Frank Nazar C	-0.8%	Played	Ryan Donato C	+0.2%	Played
	Ryan Donato C	-0.6%	Played	Sam Rinzel D	+0.2%	Didn't play
	Teuvo Teravainen C	-0.6%	Played	Oliver Moore C	+0.2%	Played
BUF	Tage Thompson C	-4.7%	Played	Rasmus Dahlin D	+1.2%	Played
	Rasmus Dahlin D	-2.4%	Played	Josh Doan R	+1.1%	Played
	Jason Zucker L	-2.1%	Didn't play	Noah Ostlund C	+1.0%	Played
	Josh Doan R	-1.9%	Played	Zach Benson L	+0.9%	Played
	Jack Quinn R	-1.9%	Played	Tage Thompson C	+0.8%	Played

How the projection moved on game day (5.96 → 5.99)

12:21 AM 5.96 first run
12:28 AM 5.96 no change
12:43 AM 5.96 no change
12:53 AM 5.96 no change
1:43 AM 5.96 no change
2:36 AM 5.96 no change
11:18 AM 5.96 BUF goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: Unconfirmed → Likely
1:17 PM 5.96 CHI goalie Spencer Knight: Unconfirmed → Likely; CHI lineup: Ben Pope Oct 3 11:51 AM
1:51 PM 5.96 no change
2:42 PM 5.96 no change
2:50 PM 5.96 no change
3:17 PM 5.96 CHI goalie Spencer Knight: Likely → Confirmed
5:00 PM 5.99 +0.03Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.03; Line 6.5 o+104 → 6.5 o-105
5:17 PM 5.99 no change
6:17 PM 5.99 no change
6:43 PM 5.99 CHI lineup: Ben Pope Oct 3 6:39 PM; BUF goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: Likely → Confirmed; Olen Zellweger (BUF) off day-to-day; BUF lineup: Rachel Lenzi Oct 3 6:40 PM
6:45 PM 5.99 no change

AVOID: CHI projects under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (CHI 2.54). At 5-on-5, CHI is trash (1.83) and BUF is great (2.52); on the power play, CHI is trash (0.46) and BUF is mid (0.54). CHI faces Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, an OK goalie, grade 29 (-0.5%); BUF faces Spencer Knight, a Mid goalie, grade 54 (-2.5%). Other factors: CHI's team speed costs 3.1%; injuries cost CHI 1.6%; BUF's team speed adds 3.4%. CHI 2.54: 0.47 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.23 (its attack ranks #31 of 32, BUF's defense #19); power play -0.10 (its power play ranks #30, BUF's penalty kill and penalty habits #15); team speed -0.08 (it skates slower than BUF, -3.1%); injuries -0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.6%); Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in goal -0.01 (an OK goalie, grade 29, -0.5%). BUF 3.45: 0.44 goals above what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.46 (its attack ranks #8 of 32, CHI's defense #32); team speed +0.12 (it skates faster than CHI, +3.4%). Holding it back: Spencer Knight in goal -0.09 (a Mid goalie, grade 54, -2.5%); injuries -0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.9%); power play -0.02 (its power play ranks #22, CHI's penalty kill and penalty habits #15). The model projects 5.99 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 46% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 5.5 to 6.5, toward the over. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (CHI 3, BUF 4), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

CGY#30 OFF / #28 DEF

2.95●

5U 6.5

5.96

46%

6.5 → 6.5

10:00 PM ET
AVOID near miss −0.03 was SLAM
✓ under

D. Cooley ✓ Good 68

2.07

0.47

+3.6%

0.40

–

-2.4%

-0.5%

VAN#21 OFF / #32 DEF

3.01●

L. Meriläinen ✓ Trash 4

2.11

0.59

-3.7%

0.40

–

+1.7%

-0.6%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CGY	1.91#28 of 32	2.22#31 of 32	2.07goals	0.42#32 of 32	0.62#30 of 32	0.47goals
VAN	1.98#18 of 32	2.19#30 of 32	2.11goals	0.58#12 of 32	0.56#17 of 32	0.59goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Played?	Player	If out	Played?
CGY	Matt Coronato R	-1.5%	Played	Morgan Frost C	+0.9%	Played
	Morgan Frost C	-1.3%	Played	Connor Zary C	+0.8%	Didn't play
	Jonathan Huberdeau L	-0.8%	Didn't play	Joel Hanley D	+0.5%	Played
	Mikael Backlund C	-0.4%	Played	Matt Coronato R	+0.4%	Played
	Ryan Strome C	-0.4%	Played	Adam Klapka R	+0.4%	Played
VAN	Jake DeBrusk L	-1.9%	Didn't play	Linus Karlsson C	+0.7%	Played
	Brock Boeser R	-1.7%	Played	Jake DeBrusk L	+0.6%	Didn't play
	Elias Pettersson C	-1.6%	Played	Elias Pettersson C	+0.5%	Played
	Marco Rossi C	-1.1%	Played	Zeev Buium D	+0.4%	Played
	Linus Karlsson C	-1.0%	Played	Marco Rossi C	+0.4%	Played

How the projection moved on game day (6.19 → 5.96)

12:21 AM 6.19 first run
12:28 AM 6.19 no change
12:43 AM 6.19 no change
12:53 AM 6.19 no change
1:43 AM 6.19 no change
2:36 AM 6.19 no change
11:18 AM 6.19 VAN goalie: Kevin Lankinen → Leevi Merilainen +0.00; CGY goalie: Dustin Wolf → Devin Cooley +0.00
1:17 PM 6.19 no change
1:51 PM 6.19 VAN goalie Leevi Merilainen: Unconfirmed → Likely
2:42 PM 6.19 Injuries / lineup: Jake DeBrusk (VAN) out, Aatu Räty (VAN) back in +0.00
2:50 PM 6.19 Injuries / lineup: Connor Zary (CGY) out +0.00; CGY goalie Devin Cooley: Unconfirmed → Confirmed; CGY lineup: Derek Wills Oct 3 2:47 PM
3:17 PM 6.19 VAN lineup: Ben Kuzma Oct 3 2:51 PM
5:00 PM 5.96 -0.23CGY goalie Devin Cooley: rating updated -0.12; VAN goalie Leevi Merilainen: rating updated -0.05; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.03; Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated -0.03; Line 6.5 o+103 → 6.5 o+107
5:17 PM 5.96 no change
6:17 PM 5.96 no change
6:43 PM 5.96 no change
6:45 PM 5.96 no change
7:17 PM 5.96 no change
7:45 PM 5.96 no change
8:18 PM 5.96 no change
8:44 PM 5.96 no change
8:45 PM 5.96 no change
9:17 PM 5.96 Line 6.5 o+107 → 6.5 o+104
9:28 PM 5.96 no change
9:45 PM 5.96 VAN goalie Leevi Merilainen: Likely → Confirmed; VAN lineup: Thomas Drance Oct 3 9:41 PM
9:57 PM 5.96 no change

AVOID: CGY projects under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (CGY 2.95). At 5-on-5, CGY is good (2.07) and VAN is good (2.11); on the power play, CGY is bad (0.47) and VAN is mid (0.59). CGY faces Leevi Merilainen, a Trash goalie, grade 4 (+3.6%); VAN faces Devin Cooley, a Good goalie, grade 68 (-3.7%). Other factors: CGY's team speed costs 2.4%. CGY 2.95: 0.06 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: Leevi Merilainen in goal +0.10 (a Trash goalie, grade 4, +3.6%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.01 (its attack ranks #28 of 32, VAN's defense #31). Holding it back: power play -0.09 (its power play ranks #32, VAN's penalty kill and penalty habits #30); team speed -0.07 (it skates slower than VAN, -2.4%); injuries -0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.5%). VAN 3.01: 0.00 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.06 (its attack ranks #18 of 32, CGY's defense #30); team speed +0.05 (it skates faster than CGY, +1.7%); power play +0.03 (its power play ranks #12, CGY's penalty kill and penalty habits #17). Holding it back: Devin Cooley in goal -0.11 (a Good goalie, grade 68, -3.7%); injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.6%). The model projects 5.96 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 46% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (CGY 1, VAN 4), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

OTT#5 OFF / #4 DEF

3.36●

5U 6.5

5.87

45%

6.5 → 6.5

7:00 PM ET
AVOID
✓ under

L. Ullmark ✓ Good 61

2.26

0.65

-0.8%

0.40

–

+1.8%

+0.9%

TOR#28 OFF / #30 DEF

2.51●

S. Bobrovsky ✓ OK 33

1.77

0.45

-3.1%

0.40

–

-1.8%

+0.8%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
OTT	2.17#9 of 32	2.14#29 of 32	2.26goals	0.63#8 of 32	0.57#20 of 32	0.65goals
TOR	1.96#21 of 32	1.86#1 of 32	1.77goals	0.51#26 of 32	0.49#3 of 32	0.45goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Played?	Player	If out	Played?
OTT	Tim Stützle C	-4.2%	Played	Jordan Spence D	+2.1%	Played
	Drake Batherson R	-3.2%	Played	Drake Batherson R	+1.5%	Played
	Dylan Cozens C	-2.5%	Played	Dylan Cozens C	+1.4%	Played
	Shane Pinto C	-1.5%	Played	Tim Stützle C	+1.2%	Played
	Jake Sanderson D	-1.3%	Played	Tyler Kleven D	+1.0%	Played
TOR	William Nylander R	-4.3%	Played	Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	+0.3%	Played
	Auston Matthews C	-3.7%	Played	John Tavares C	+0.2%	Played
	John Tavares C	-3.6%	Played	Darren Raddysh D	+0.2%	Played
	Easton Cowan R	-0.6%	Played	Easton Cowan R	+0.1%	Played
	Morgan Rielly D	-0.5%	Played	Jack Roslovic C	+0.1%	Played

How the projection moved on game day (5.73 → 5.87)

12:21 AM 5.73 first run
12:28 AM 5.73 no change
12:43 AM 5.73 no change
12:53 AM 5.73 no change
1:43 AM 5.73 no change
2:36 AM 5.73 no change
11:18 AM 5.73 TOR goalie: Anthony Stolarz → Sergei Bobrovsky +0.00; Jorian Donovan (OTT) off day-to-day
1:17 PM 5.73 OTT goalie Linus Ullmark: Unconfirmed → Likely; Jake Sanderson (OTT) off day-to-day; OTT lineup: Jackson Starr Oct 3 11:55 AM
1:51 PM 5.73 no change
2:42 PM 5.73 no change
2:50 PM 5.73 no change
3:17 PM 5.73 no change
5:00 PM 5.87 +0.14TOR goalie Sergei Bobrovsky: rating updated +0.13; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.02; Line 6.5 o+105 → 6.5 o+107
5:17 PM 5.87 no change
6:17 PM 5.87 Line 6.5 o+107 → 6.5 o+106
6:43 PM 5.87 no change
6:45 PM 5.87 Line 6.5 o+106 → 6.5 o+107

AVOID: TOR projects under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (TOR 2.51). At 5-on-5, OTT is great (2.26) and TOR is trash (1.77); on the power play, OTT is good (0.65) and TOR is trash (0.45). OTT faces Sergei Bobrovsky, an OK goalie, grade 33 (-0.8%); TOR faces Linus Ullmark, a Good goalie, grade 61 (-3.1%). OTT 3.36: 0.35 goals above what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.21 (its attack ranks #9 of 32, TOR's defense #29); power play +0.09 (its power play ranks #8, TOR's penalty kill and penalty habits #20); team speed +0.06 (it skates faster than TOR, +1.8%); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.9%). Holding it back: Sergei Bobrovsky in goal -0.03 (an OK goalie, grade 33, -0.8%). TOR 2.51: 0.50 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.8%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.28 (its attack ranks #21 of 32, OTT's defense #1); power play -0.11 (its power play ranks #26, OTT's penalty kill and penalty habits #3); Linus Ullmark in goal -0.08 (a Good goalie, grade 61, -3.1%); team speed -0.04 (it skates slower than OTT, -1.8%). The model projects 5.87 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (OTT 3, TOR 2), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

LAK#25 OFF / #14 DEF

3.05●

9O 6.5

5.86

45%

6.5 → 6.5

10:00 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over

A. Forsberg ✓ Mid 51

1.96

0.60

+3.4%

0.40

–

+0.4%

-0.7%

SJS#19 OFF / #29 DEF

2.81●

Y. Askarov ✓ Trash 5

1.84

0.63

-2.3%

0.40

–

-0.6%

+0.8%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
LAK	1.94#25 of 32	2.08#21 of 32	1.96goals	0.46#28 of 32	0.71#32 of 32	0.60goals
SJS	1.95#23 of 32	1.94#3 of 32	1.84goals	0.61#10 of 32	0.57#22 of 32	0.63goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Played?	Player	If out	Played?
LAK	Artemi Panarin L	-3.9%	Played	Brandt Clarke D	+1.8%	Played
	Adrian Kempe R	-3.2%	Played	Kevin Fiala L	+1.2%	Didn't play
	Kevin Fiala L	-1.6%	Didn't play	Artemi Panarin L	+1.1%	Played
	Quinton Byfield R	-1.6%	Played	Adrian Kempe R	+1.0%	Played
	Alex Laferriere R	-0.9%	Played	Alex Laferriere R	+0.9%	Played
SJS	Macklin Celebrini C	-4.9%	Played	Macklin Celebrini C	+0.8%	Played
	Will Smith C	-2.1%	Played	Tyler Toffoli C	+0.7%	Played
	Tyler Toffoli C	-2.0%	Played	Dmitry Orlov D	+0.6%	Played
	Alexander Wennberg C	-0.9%	Played	Will Smith C	+0.5%	Played
	Kiefer Sherwood L	-0.8%	Played	Adam Gaudette R	+0.5%	Didn't play

How the projection moved on game day (5.88 → 5.86)

12:21 AM 5.88 first run
12:28 AM 5.88 no change
12:43 AM 5.88 no change
12:53 AM 5.88 no change
1:43 AM 5.88 no change
2:36 AM 5.88 no change
11:18 AM 5.88 no change
1:17 PM 5.88 no change
1:51 PM 5.88 SJS goalie Yaroslav Askarov: Unconfirmed → Likely; SJS lineup: Max Miller Oct 3 1:25 PM
2:42 PM 5.88 LAK goalie: Darcy Kuemper → Anton Forsberg +0.00; SJS goalie Yaroslav Askarov: Likely → Confirmed; Jacob Trouba (SJS) day-to-day; SJS lineup: Max Miller Oct 3 2:11 PM
2:50 PM 5.88 no change
3:17 PM 5.88 Injuries / lineup: Samuel Helenius (LAK) out +0.00; LAK lineup: Noah Sher Oct 3 2:54 PM
5:00 PM 5.86 -0.02LAK goalie Anton Forsberg: rating updated -0.02; Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated +0.01; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 6.5 o+104 → 6.5 o+102
5:17 PM 5.86 no change
6:17 PM 5.86 no change
6:43 PM 5.86 no change
6:45 PM 5.86 no change
7:17 PM 5.86 LAK lineup: Zach Dooley Oct 3 7:08 PM
7:45 PM 5.86 no change
8:18 PM 5.86 no change
8:44 PM 5.86 no change
8:45 PM 5.86 no change
9:17 PM 5.86 no change
9:28 PM 5.86 no change
9:45 PM 5.86 LAK goalie Anton Forsberg: Likely → Confirmed; LAK lineup: Zach Dooley Oct 3 9:39 PM; SJS lineup: Max Miller Oct 3 9:38 PM
9:57 PM 5.86 Jacob Trouba (SJS) off day-to-day; Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o+105

AVOID: SJS projects under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (SJS 2.81). At 5-on-5, LAK is mid (1.96) and SJS is bad (1.84); on the power play, LAK is good (0.60) and SJS is good (0.63). LAK faces Yaroslav Askarov, a Trash goalie, grade 5 (+3.4%); SJS faces Anton Forsberg, a Mid goalie, grade 51 (-2.3%). LAK 3.05: 0.04 goals above what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: Yaroslav Askarov in goal +0.10 (a Trash goalie, grade 5, +3.4%); power play +0.04 (its power play ranks #28, SJS's penalty kill and penalty habits #32); team speed +0.01 (it skates faster than SJS, +0.4%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.09 (its attack ranks #25 of 32, SJS's defense #21); injuries -0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.7%). SJS 2.81: 0.21 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: power play +0.07 (its power play ranks #10, LAK's penalty kill and penalty habits #22); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.8%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.21 (its attack ranks #23 of 32, LAK's defense #3); Anton Forsberg in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 51, -2.3%); team speed -0.02 (it skates slower than LAK, -0.6%). The model projects 5.86 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 9 goals (LAK 4, SJS 5), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

DAL#15 OFF / #9 DEF

2.79●

3U 6.5

5.66

43%

6.5 → 6.5

8:00 PM ET
AVOID
✓ under

C. DeSmith ✓ Good 73

2.04

0.68

-0.9%

0.40

-8.0%

-0.3%

-1.7%

NSH#23 OFF / #25 DEF

2.87●

J. Saros ✓ OK 34

1.85

0.57

-4.3%

0.40

+6.5%

-0.4%

+0.4%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
DAL	1.97#19 of 32	2.13#26 of 32	2.04goals	0.66#2 of 32	0.57#19 of 32	0.68goals
NSH	1.94#24 of 32	1.96#7 of 32	1.85goals	0.54#18 of 32	0.58#23 of 32	0.57goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Played?	Player	If out	Played?
DAL	Jason Robertson L	-5.0%	Played	Jason Robertson L	+1.4%	Played
	Wyatt Johnston C	-4.5%	Played	Miro Heiskanen D	+1.2%	Played
	Mikko Rantanen R	-3.6%	Played	Mikko Rantanen R	+1.0%	Played
	Roope Hintz C	-2.2%	Played	Thomas Harley D	+0.9%	Played
	Matt Duchene C	-2.0%	Didn't play	Justin Hryckowian C	+0.8%	Played
NSH	Filip Forsberg L	-4.2%	Played	Filip Forsberg L	+0.7%	Played
	Steven Stamkos C	-4.0%	Played	Steven Stamkos C	+0.7%	Played
	Ryan O'Reilly C	-3.0%	Played	Roman Josi D	+0.4%	Played
	Roman Josi D	-1.4%	Played	Adam Wilsby D	+0.4%	Played
	Jonathan Marchessault R	-1.1%	Played	Jonathan Marchessault R	+0.2%	Played

How the projection moved on game day (5.80 → 5.66)

12:21 AM 5.80 first run
12:28 AM 5.80 no change
12:43 AM 5.80 no change
12:53 AM 5.80 no change
1:43 AM 5.80 no change
2:36 AM 5.80 no change
11:18 AM 5.80 DAL goalie: Jake Oettinger → Casey DeSmith +0.00; DAL lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-02)
1:17 PM 5.80 NSH goalie Juuse Saros: Unconfirmed → Likely
1:51 PM 5.80 no change
2:42 PM 5.80 DAL goalie Casey DeSmith: Unconfirmed → Confirmed
2:50 PM 5.80 no change
3:17 PM 5.80 no change
5:00 PM 5.67 -0.13Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.08; DAL goalie Casey DeSmith: rating updated -0.05; Line 5.5 o-136 → 6.5 o-102
5:17 PM 5.67 no change
6:17 PM 5.67 no change
6:43 PM 5.67 no change
6:45 PM 5.67 no change
7:17 PM 5.67 Line 6.5 o-102 → 6.5 o+110
7:45 PM 5.66 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Colin Blackwell (DAL) back in -0.01; DAL lineup: Mike Heika Oct 3 7:37 PM; NSH goalie Juuse Saros: Likely → Confirmed; NSH lineup: Alex Daughertry Oct 3 7:44 PM

AVOID: DAL and NSH project under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (DAL 2.79, NSH 2.87). At 5-on-5, DAL is mid (2.04) and NSH is bad (1.85); on the power play, DAL is great (0.68) and NSH is mid (0.57). DAL faces Juuse Saros, an OK goalie, grade 34 (-0.9%); NSH faces Casey DeSmith, a Good goalie, grade 73 (-4.3%). Other factors: DAL played yesterday (-8%); injuries cost DAL 1.7%; NSH's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%). DAL 2.79: 0.22 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: power play +0.12 (its power play ranks #2, NSH's penalty kill and penalty habits #19). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.25 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); injuries -0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.7%); Juuse Saros in goal -0.03 (an OK goalie, grade 34, -0.9%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.01 (its attack ranks #19 of 32, NSH's defense #26). NSH 2.87: 0.14 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.18 (DAL played yesterday, +6.5%); power play +0.01 (its power play ranks #18, DAL's penalty kill and penalty habits #23); injuries +0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.4%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.20 (its attack ranks #24 of 32, DAL's defense #7); Casey DeSmith in goal -0.12 (a Good goalie, grade 73, -4.3%); team speed -0.01 (it skates slower than DAL, -0.4%). The model projects 5.66 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 43% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 5.5 to 6.5, toward the over. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 3 goals (DAL 1, NSH 2), so it stayed under 6.5 and the call was right.

CAR#3 OFF / #1 DEF

2.79●

5U 5.5

5.51

41%

5.5 → 5.5

7:00 PM ET
AVOID
✓ under

P. Kochetkov ✓ OK 39

2.09

0.69

-2.3%

0.40

-8.0%

+0.3%

-2.6%

PHI#31 OFF / #17 DEF

2.73●

J. Woll ✓ Mid 51

1.75

0.41

-1.3%

0.40

+6.5%

-0.3%

+1.6%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CAR	2.12#12 of 32	2.03#18 of 32	2.09goals	0.64#5 of 32	0.59#24 of 32	0.69goals
PHI	1.81#32 of 32	1.98#10 of 32	1.75goals	0.46#29 of 32	0.49#4 of 32	0.41goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Played?	Player	If out	Played?
CAR	Sebastian Aho C	-4.4%	Played	Jackson Blake R	+1.8%	Played
	Andrei Svechnikov R	-3.8%	Played	Nikolaj Ehlers L	+1.4%	Played
	Seth Jarvis C	-3.2%	Didn't play	Logan Stankoven C	+1.4%	Played
	Nikolaj Ehlers L	-3.1%	Played	Sean Walker D	+1.4%	Played
	Jackson Blake R	-2.5%	Played	Shayne Gostisbehere D	+1.4%	Played
PHI	Travis Konecny R	-2.0%	Played	Jamie Drysdale D	+1.1%	Played
	Trevor Zegras C	-1.9%	Played	Owen Tippett R	+1.0%	Played
	Matvei Michkov R	-1.8%	Played	Noah Cates L	+0.9%	Played
	Owen Tippett R	-1.6%	Played	Matvei Michkov R	+0.9%	Played
	Tyson Foerster R	-0.6%	Played	Trevor Zegras C	+0.8%	Played

Also out: CAR: Alexander Nikishin -0.5% attack, +0.8% defense

How the projection moved on game day (5.46 → 5.51)

12:21 AM 5.46 first run
12:28 AM 5.46 no change
12:43 AM 5.46 no change
12:53 AM 5.46 no change
1:43 AM 5.46 no change
2:36 AM 5.46 no change
11:18 AM 5.46 CAR goalie: Brandon Bussi → Pyotr Kochetkov +0.00; CAR lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-02); PHI goalie Joseph Woll: Unconfirmed → Likely; PHI lineup: Jordan Hall Oct 3 10:34 AM
1:17 PM 5.46 PHI goalie Joseph Woll: Likely → Confirmed
1:51 PM 5.46 no change
2:42 PM 5.46 no change
2:50 PM 5.46 no change
3:17 PM 5.46 no change
5:00 PM 5.53 +0.07Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.07; Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated +0.01; CAR goalie Pyotr Kochetkov: rating updated -0.01; CAR goalie Pyotr Kochetkov: Unconfirmed → Confirmed; Line 5.5 o-137 → 5.5 o-132
5:17 PM 5.53 no change
6:17 PM 5.53 no change
6:43 PM 5.51 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (CAR) back in, Mike Reilly (CAR) back in -0.01; CAR lineup: Walt Ruff Oct 3 6:43 PM; PHI lineup: Jordan Hall Oct 3 6:40 PM

AVOID: CAR and PHI project under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (CAR 2.79, PHI 2.73); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, CAR is good (2.09) and PHI is trash (1.75); on the power play, CAR is great (0.69) and PHI is trash (0.41). CAR faces Joseph Woll, a Mid goalie, grade 51 (-2.3%); PHI faces Pyotr Kochetkov, an OK goalie, grade 39 (-1.3%). Other factors: CAR played yesterday (-8%); injuries cost CAR 2.6%; PHI's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); injuries help PHI 1.6%. CAR 2.79: 0.22 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: power play +0.13 (its power play ranks #5, PHI's penalty kill and penalty habits #24); 5-on-5 matchup +0.04 (its attack ranks #12 of 32, PHI's defense #18). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.25 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); injuries -0.07 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.6%); Joseph Woll in goal -0.07 (a Mid goalie, grade 51, -2.3%). PHI 2.73: 0.29 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.16 (CAR played yesterday, +6.5%); injuries +0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.6%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.30 (its attack ranks #32 of 32, CAR's defense #10); power play -0.15 (its power play ranks #29, CAR's penalty kill and penalty habits #4); Pyotr Kochetkov in goal -0.03 (an OK goalie, grade 39, -1.3%). The model projects 5.51 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 41% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (CAR 3, PHI 2), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.

NJD#13 OFF / #8 DEF

2.69●

6O 5.5

5.40

40%

5.5 → 5.5

7:30 PM ET
AVOID
✗ went over

N. Daws ✓ OK 26

2.01

0.55

-7.3%

0.40

–

-3.1%

+1.6%

NYI#22 OFF / #21 DEF

2.71●

I. Sorokin ✓ Strong 89

1.87

0.41

-0.2%

0.40

–

+3.3%

-1.4%

Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play

Team	5-on-5			Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NJD	1.93#26 of 32	2.13#28 of 32	2.01goals	0.53#20 of 32	0.57#18 of 32	0.55goals
NYI	1.92#27 of 32	2.00#12 of 32	1.87goals	0.49#27 of 32	0.46#2 of 32	0.41goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Team	Top 5 attackers			Top 5 defenders
Team	Player	If out	Played?	Player	If out	Played?
NJD	Jack Hughes C	-3.7%	Played	Jack Hughes C	+1.1%	Played
	Nico Hischier C	-3.6%	Played	Luke Hughes D	+1.0%	Played
	Jesper Bratt L	-3.4%	Played	Jesper Bratt L	+0.9%	Played
	Timo Meier R	-1.9%	Played	Dougie Hamilton D	+0.9%	Played
	Dougie Hamilton D	-1.3%	Played	Timo Meier R	+0.8%	Played
NYI	Bo Horvat C	-2.6%	Played	Mathew Barzal C	+1.0%	Didn't play
	Mathew Barzal C	-2.5%	Didn't play	Matthew Schaefer D	+0.9%	Played
	Matthew Schaefer D	-2.1%	Played	Emil Heineman L	+0.7%	Played
	Brayden Schenn C	-1.0%	Played	Ondrej Palat L	+0.5%	Played
	Calum Ritchie C	-0.7%	Played	Brayden Schenn C	+0.5%	Played

How the projection moved on game day (5.33 → 5.40)

12:21 AM 5.33 first run
12:28 AM 5.33 no change
12:43 AM 5.33 no change
12:53 AM 5.33 no change
1:43 AM 5.33 no change
2:36 AM 5.33 no change
11:18 AM 5.33 NYI lineup: Ethan Sears Oct 3 10:31 AM
1:17 PM 5.33 NJD goalie: Jake Allen → Nico Daws +0.00
1:51 PM 5.33 no change
2:42 PM 5.33 no change
2:50 PM 5.33 no change
3:17 PM 5.33 no change
5:00 PM 5.40 +0.07NJD goalie Nico Daws: rating updated +0.07
5:17 PM 5.40 no change
6:17 PM 5.40 no change
6:43 PM 5.40 no change
6:45 PM 5.40 no change
7:17 PM 5.40 NJD lineup: New Jersey Devils Oct 3 7:15 PM

AVOID: NJD and NYI project under the 2.98-goal high-scoring cutoff (NJD 2.69, NYI 2.71); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, NJD is mid (2.01) and NYI is bad (1.87); on the power play, NJD is mid (0.55) and NYI is trash (0.41). NJD faces Ilya Sorokin, a Strong goalie, grade 89 (-7.3%); NYI faces Nico Daws, an OK goalie, grade 26 (-0.2%). Other factors: NJD's team speed costs 3.1%; injuries help NJD 1.6%; NYI's team speed adds 3.3%. NJD 2.69: 0.32 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: injuries +0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.6%). Holding it back: Ilya Sorokin in goal -0.21 (a Strong goalie, grade 89, -7.3%); team speed -0.09 (it skates slower than NYI, -3.1%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.05 (its attack ranks #26 of 32, NYI's defense #28); power play -0.01 (its power play ranks #20, NYI's penalty kill and penalty habits #18). NYI 2.71: 0.30 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: team speed +0.09 (it skates faster than NJD, +3.3%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.19 (its attack ranks #27 of 32, NJD's defense #12); power play -0.15 (its power play ranks #27, NJD's penalty kill and penalty habits #2); injuries -0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.4%). The model projects 5.40 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 40% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 6 goals (NJD 0, NYI 6), so it went over 5.5 and the call was wrong.

9:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

STL#29 OFF / #11 DEF12.39●

J. Binnington ✓ Trash 9

COL#1 OFF / #3 DEF64.00●

M. Blackwood ✓ Mid 48

7 goals · proj 6.39 · P(7+) 50%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
STL	1.91	0.44	-2.0%	0.40	-8.0%	-5.4%	+1.9%
COL	2.41	0.63	+2.3%	0.40	+6.5%	+6.1%	+0.9%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
STL	2.01#16 of 32	1.95#4 of 32	1.91goals
COL	2.48#1 of 32	2.00#12 of 32	2.41goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
STL	0.45#31 of 32	0.54#10 of 32	0.44goals
COL	0.64#4 of 32	0.54#10 of 32	0.63goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
STL
Robert Thomas C	-2.5%	Played
Jimmy Snuggerud R	-1.8%	Played
Dylan Holloway L	-1.7%	Played
Pavel Buchnevich L	-1.3%	Played
Jake Neighbours L	-0.9%	Played
COL
Nathan MacKinnon C	-6.5%	Played
Martin Necas C	-4.9%	Played
Cale Makar D	-3.2%	Played
Brock Nelson C	-2.7%	Played
Artturi Lehkonen L	-2.4%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
STL
Dylan Holloway L	+0.8%	Played
Cam Fowler D	+0.7%	Played
Dalibor Dvorsky R	+0.7%	Played
Jake Neighbours L	+0.7%	Played
Jimmy Snuggerud R	+0.6%	Played
COL
Sam Malinski D	+1.5%	Played
Martin Necas C	+1.4%	Played
Nathan MacKinnon C	+1.2%	Played
Cale Makar D	+0.8%	Played
Brett Kulak D	+0.8%	Played

How the projection moved on game day (6.25 → 6.39)

12:21 AM 6.25 first run
12:28 AM 6.25 no change
12:43 AM 6.25 Injuries / lineup: Alexey Toropchenko (STL) out +0.00
12:53 AM 6.25 no change
1:43 AM 6.25 no change
2:36 AM 6.25 no change
11:18 AM 6.25 COL goalie: Mackenzie Blackwood → Scott Wedgewood +0.00; STL lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-02)
1:17 PM 6.25 COL goalie: Scott Wedgewood → Mackenzie Blackwood +0.00
1:51 PM 6.25 no change
2:42 PM 6.25 no change
2:50 PM 6.25 no change
3:17 PM 6.25 no change
5:00 PM 6.39 +0.14Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.12; Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated +0.02; Line 6.5 o+110 → 6.5 o-100
5:17 PM 6.39 no change
6:17 PM 6.39 no change
6:43 PM 6.39 no change
6:45 PM 6.39 no change
7:17 PM 6.39 no change
7:45 PM 6.39 no change
8:18 PM 6.39 STL goalie Jordan Binnington: Likely → Confirmed; STL lineup: Chris Pinkert Oct 3 7:57 PM
8:44 PM 6.39 STL lineup: Jeremy Rutherford Oct 3 8:42 PM; COL goalie Mackenzie Blackwood: Likely → Confirmed; COL lineup: Bailey Curtis Oct 3 8:41 PM
8:45 PM 6.39 no change

7:00 PM ET🔨 SLAM

O 6.5 W
paper W +0.90u

MTL#12 OFF / #20 DEF53.27●

J. Dobes ✓ Strong 81

PIT#4 OFF / #7 DEF63.08●

A. Silovs ✓ Trash 3

11 goals · proj 6.35 · P(7+) 49%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
MTL	2.09	0.52	+4.1%	0.40	–	+3.3%	+0.8%
PIT	2.39	0.69	-5.3%	0.40	–	-3.1%	-3.2%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
MTL	2.14#10 of 32	2.01#15 of 32	2.09goals
PIT	2.32#2 of 32	2.12#25 of 32	2.39goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
MTL	0.57#16 of 32	0.51#6 of 32	0.52goals
PIT	0.63#6 of 32	0.60#26 of 32	0.69goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
MTL
Cole Caufield R	-5.3%	Played
Nick Suzuki C	-5.0%	Played
Juraj Slafkovský L	-3.3%	Played
Ivan Demidov R	-2.4%	Played
Lane Hutson D	-2.2%	Played
PIT
Sidney Crosby C	-3.5%	Played
Bryan Rust R	-3.2%	Didn't play
Rickard Rakell R	-2.6%	Played
Evgeni Malkin C	-2.4%	Played
Erik Karlsson D	-1.8%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
MTL
Lane Hutson D	+2.0%	Played
Cole Caufield R	+1.2%	Played
Zachary Bolduc R	+1.2%	Played
Nick Suzuki C	+1.1%	Played
Ivan Demidov R	+0.8%	Played
PIT
Tommy Novak C	+1.0%	Played
Ben Kindel C	+0.9%	Played
Samuel Girard D	+0.8%	Played
Egor Chinakhov R	+0.5%	Played
Justin Brazeau R	+0.4%	Didn't play

How the projection moved on game day (6.34 → 6.35)

12:21 AM 6.34 first run
12:28 AM 6.34 no change
12:43 AM 6.34 no change
12:53 AM 6.34 no change
1:43 AM 6.34 no change
2:36 AM 6.34 no change
11:18 AM 6.34 no change
1:17 PM 6.34 Injuries / lineup: Blake Lizotte (PIT) out, Ben Kindel (PIT) back in +0.00; MTL goalie Jakub Dobes: Unconfirmed → Confirmed; PIT goalie Arturs Silovs: Unconfirmed → Confirmed; Ben Kindel (PIT) day-to-day; Andrei Kuzmenko (PIT) off day-to-day
1:51 PM 6.34 no change
2:42 PM 6.34 no change
2:50 PM 6.34 no change
3:17 PM 6.34 no change
5:00 PM 6.35 +0.01Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated +0.01; Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o-105
5:17 PM 6.35 no change
6:17 PM 6.35 Line 6.5 o-105 → 6.5 o-110
6:43 PM 6.35 Injuries / lineup: Ville Koivunen (PIT) out, Blake Lizotte (PIT) back in +0.00; Ben Kindel (PIT) off day-to-day; PIT lineup: @penguins Oct 3 6:39 PM

7:00 PM ETAVOID was 1U

U 6.5 ✓ under

SEA#27 OFF / #18 DEF12.85●

P. Grubauer ✓ Trash 6

EDM#2 OFF / #24 DEF33.44●

D. Levi ✓ Trash 13

4 goals · proj 6.29 · P(7+) 49%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
SEA	1.96	0.53	+1.5%	0.40	–	-4.7%	+2.0%
EDM	2.28	0.64	+3.0%	0.40	–	+5.1%	-4.2%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
SEA	2.01#17 of 32	2.01#14 of 32	1.96goals
EDM	2.25#4 of 32	2.08#20 of 32	2.28goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
SEA	0.53#21 of 32	0.56#14 of 32	0.53goals
EDM	0.70#1 of 32	0.50#5 of 32	0.64goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
SEA
Jordan Eberle R	-2.0%	Played
Jared McCann L	-1.6%	Played
Bobby McMann C	-1.5%	Played
Matty Beniers C	-1.1%	Played
Shane Wright C	-0.9%	Played
EDM
Connor McDavid C	-7.9%	Played
Leon Draisaitl C	-5.9%	Played
Evan Bouchard D	-4.6%	Played
Zach Hyman L	-3.5%	Didn't play
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C	-2.3%	Didn't play

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
SEA
Jordan Eberle R	+0.9%	Played
Shane Wright C	+0.8%	Played
Matty Beniers C	+0.7%	Played
Ryker Evans D	+0.6%	Played
Brandon Montour D	+0.6%	Played
EDM
Connor McDavid C	+1.6%	Played
Leon Draisaitl C	+1.4%	Played
Evan Bouchard D	+1.4%	Played
Vasily Podkolzin R	+1.3%	Played
Zach Hyman L	+0.8%	Didn't play

How the projection moved on game day (6.11 → 6.29)

12:21 AM 6.11 first run
12:28 AM 6.11 no change
12:43 AM 6.11 no change
12:53 AM 6.11 no change
1:43 AM 6.11 no change
2:36 AM 6.11 no change
11:18 AM 6.11 EDM goalie: Devon Levi → Tristan Jarry +0.00
1:17 PM 6.11 Injuries / lineup: Jacob Melanson (SEA) out +0.00
1:51 PM 6.11 no change
2:42 PM 6.11 no change
2:50 PM 6.11 no change
3:17 PM 6.11 no change
5:00 PM 6.15 +0.04Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.02; EDM goalie Tristan Jarry: rating updated +0.01; Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated +0.01; Line 6.5 o-110 → 6.5 o-115
5:17 PM 6.15 no change
6:17 PM 6.15 Line 6.5 o-115 → 6.5 o-118
6:43 PM 6.29 +0.14SEA goalie: Joey Daccord → Philipp Grubauer +0.15; EDM goalie: Tristan Jarry → Devon Levi -0.01; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.01; Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-120

7:00 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

WSH#11 OFF / #19 DEF12.65●

C. Lindgren ✓ OK 22

TBL#10 OFF / #12 DEF33.57●

A. Vasilevskiy ✓ Strong 92

4 goals · proj 6.23 · P(7+) 48%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
WSH	2.14	0.52	-8.0%	0.40	-8.0%	+1.4%	+1.1%
TBL	2.28	0.66	+0.2%	0.40	+6.5%	-1.1%	+1.5%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
WSH	2.24#5 of 32	1.96#9 of 32	2.14goals
TBL	2.20#7 of 32	2.13#27 of 32	2.28goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
WSH	0.52#23 of 32	0.55#12 of 32	0.52goals
TBL	0.54#18 of 32	0.68#31 of 32	0.66goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
WSH
Alex Ovechkin L	-3.6%	Played
Tom Wilson R	-3.2%	Played
Dylan Strome C	-2.6%	Played
Jakob Chychrun D	-2.6%	Played
Aliaksei Protas L	-1.7%	Played
TBL
Nikita Kucherov R	-7.2%	Played
Jake Guentzel C	-5.2%	Played
Brandon Hagel L	-5.0%	Played
Brayden Point C	-3.2%	Played
Anthony Cirelli C	-2.8%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
WSH
Jakob Chychrun D	+1.2%	Played
Rasmus Sandin D	+0.8%	Didn't play
Justin Sourdif C	+0.7%	Played
Dylan Strome C	+0.5%	Played
Ethen Frank R	+0.5%	Didn't play
TBL
Gage Goncalves C	+1.2%	Played
Pontus Holmberg R	+1.1%	Played
Nikita Kucherov R	+1.0%	Played
Jake Guentzel C	+0.9%	Played
Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	+0.8%	Played

How the projection moved on game day (6.07 → 6.23)

12:21 AM 6.07 first run
12:28 AM 6.07 no change
12:43 AM 6.07 no change
12:53 AM 6.07 no change
1:43 AM 6.07 no change
2:36 AM 6.07 no change
11:18 AM 6.07 WSH lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-02); TBL goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy: Unconfirmed → Likely; TBL lineup: Benjamin Pierce Oct 3 10:39 AM
1:17 PM 6.07 no change
1:51 PM 6.07 no change
2:42 PM 6.07 no change
2:50 PM 6.07 no change
3:17 PM 6.07 no change
5:00 PM 6.23 +0.16Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.17; Line 6.5 o+103 → 6.5 o+102
5:17 PM 6.23 no change
6:17 PM 6.23 no change
6:43 PM 6.23 Injuries / lineup: Max Crozier (TBL) out, Emil Lilleberg (TBL) back in -0.00; TBL goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy: Likely → Confirmed; TBL lineup: Gabby Shirley Oct 3 6:36 PM; Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o-102

7:00 PM ET1U

U 6.5 L
paper L -1.00u

UTA#9 OFF / #5 DEF43.10●

S. Cossa ✓ OK 23

CBJ#14 OFF / #15 DEF12.98●

J. Greaves ✓ Strong 83

5 goals · proj 6.09 · P(7+) 47%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
UTA	2.22	0.64	-6.0%	0.40	–	+1.9%	-0.5%
CBJ	2.02	0.53	+0.1%	0.40	–	-1.4%	+2.4%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
UTA	2.27#3 of 32	2.01#15 of 32	2.22goals
CBJ	2.12#11 of 32	1.96#7 of 32	2.02goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
UTA	0.59#11 of 32	0.60#26 of 32	0.64goals
CBJ	0.52#25 of 32	0.57#21 of 32	0.53goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
UTA
Dylan Guenther R	-4.0%	Played
Clayton Keller R	-3.8%	Played
Nick Schmaltz C	-3.6%	Played
Logan Cooley C	-2.2%	Played
Mikhail Sergachev D	-1.4%	Played
CBJ
Zach Werenski D	-2.5%	Played
Adam Fantilli C	-2.2%	Played
Sean Monahan C	-1.5%	Played
Dmitri Voronkov L	-1.4%	Played
Charlie Coyle C	-1.3%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
UTA
Clayton Keller R	+1.6%	Played
Nate Schmidt D	+1.4%	Played
Nick Schmaltz C	+1.0%	Played
Barrett Hayton C	+0.9%	Played
Michael Carcone L	+0.9%	Played
CBJ
Kent Johnson C	+0.8%	Played
Adam Fantilli C	+0.8%	Played
Zach Werenski D	+0.6%	Played
Dmitri Voronkov L	+0.5%	Played
Denton Mateychuk D	+0.4%	Played

How the projection moved on game day (6.01 → 6.09)

12:21 AM 6.01 first run
12:28 AM 6.01 no change
12:43 AM 6.01 no change
12:53 AM 6.01 no change
1:43 AM 6.01 no change
2:36 AM 6.01 no change
11:18 AM 6.01 no change
1:17 PM 6.01 no change
1:51 PM 6.01 no change
2:42 PM 6.01 no change
2:50 PM 6.01 no change
3:17 PM 6.01 no change
5:00 PM 6.03 +0.02Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.02; Line 6.5 o+112 → 6.5 o+113
5:17 PM 6.03 no change
6:17 PM 6.03 Line 6.5 o+113 → 6.5 o+112
6:43 PM 6.09 +0.06UTA goalie: Karel Vejmelka → Sebastian Cossa +0.06; UTA lineup: Utah Mammoth Oct 3 6:33 PM; Line 6.5 o+112 → 6.5 o+111

8:00 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

BOS#18 OFF / #22 DEF12.54●

M. DiPietro ✓ OK 24

MIN#8 OFF / #6 DEF43.45●

J. Wallstedt ✓ OK 34

5 goals · proj 5.99 · P(7+) 46%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
BOS	1.99	0.49	-1.0%	0.40	-8.0%	-2.1%	-0.9%
MIN	2.12	0.67	–	0.40	+6.5%	+1.6%	+0.2%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
BOS	2.09#14 of 32	1.96#6 of 32	1.99goals
MIN	2.08#15 of 32	2.09#22 of 32	2.12goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
BOS	0.52#24 of 32	0.52#7 of 32	0.49goals
MIN	0.62#9 of 32	0.60#25 of 32	0.67goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
BOS
David Pastrnak R	-4.2%	Played
Morgan Geekie C	-3.3%	Played
Pavel Zacha C	-2.4%	Played
Elias Lindholm C	-1.4%	Played
Charlie McAvoy D	-1.1%	Didn't play
MIN
Kirill Kaprizov L	-5.3%	Played
Matt Boldy L	-4.2%	Played
Quinn Hughes D	-2.5%	Played
Joel Eriksson Ek C	-2.3%	Played
Ryan Hartman R	-0.8%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
BOS
David Pastrnak R	+0.9%	Played
Mason Lohrei D	+0.7%	Played
Morgan Geekie C	+0.7%	Played
Casey Mittelstadt C	+0.5%	Played
Fraser Minten C	+0.3%	Played
MIN
Quinn Hughes D	+1.8%	Played
Kirill Kaprizov L	+1.5%	Played
Jared Spurgeon D	+1.0%	Played
Matt Boldy L	+1.0%	Played
Bobby Brink R	+0.9%	Played

How the projection moved on game day (5.77 → 5.99)

12:21 AM 5.77 first run
12:28 AM 5.77 no change
12:43 AM 5.77 no change
12:53 AM 5.77 no change
1:43 AM 5.77 no change
2:36 AM 5.77 no change
11:18 AM 5.77 BOS goalie: Jeremy Swayman → Michael DiPietro +0.00; BOS lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-02)
1:17 PM 5.77 MIN goalie Jesper Wallstedt: Unconfirmed → Confirmed; MIN lineup: Dylan Loucks Oct 3 11:51 AM
1:51 PM 5.77 no change
2:42 PM 5.77 no change
2:50 PM 5.77 no change
3:17 PM 5.77 no change
5:00 PM 5.99 +0.22BOS goalie Michael DiPietro: rating updated +0.21; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.01; Line 6.5 o+110 → 6.5 o+104
5:17 PM 5.99 no change
6:17 PM 5.99 no change
6:43 PM 5.99 no change
6:45 PM 5.99 no change
7:17 PM 5.99 BOS goalie Michael DiPietro: Unconfirmed → Confirmed
7:45 PM 5.99 BOS lineup: Belle Fraser Oct 3 7:41 PM; Line 6.5 o+104 → 6.5 o+103

7:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

CHI#32 OFF / #31 DEF32.54●

S. Knight ✓ Mid 54

BUF#16 OFF / #23 DEF43.45●

U. Luukkonen ✓ OK 29

7 goals · proj 5.99 · P(7+) 46%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
CHI	1.83	0.46	-0.5%	0.40	–	-3.1%	-1.6%
BUF	2.52	0.54	-2.5%	0.40	–	+3.4%	-0.9%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CHI	1.82#31 of 32	2.06#19 of 32	1.83goals
BUF	2.17#8 of 32	2.38#32 of 32	2.52goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CHI	0.45#30 of 32	0.56#15 of 32	0.46goals
BUF	0.52#22 of 32	0.56#15 of 32	0.54goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
CHI
Tyler Bertuzzi L	-2.3%	Played
Connor Bedard C	-2.1%	Didn't play
Frank Nazar C	-0.8%	Played
Ryan Donato C	-0.6%	Played
Teuvo Teravainen C	-0.6%	Played
BUF
Tage Thompson C	-4.7%	Played
Rasmus Dahlin D	-2.4%	Played
Jason Zucker L	-2.1%	Didn't play
Josh Doan R	-1.9%	Played
Jack Quinn R	-1.9%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
CHI
Andrew Mangiapane L	+0.5%	Didn't play
Tyler Bertuzzi L	+0.4%	Played
Ryan Donato C	+0.2%	Played
Sam Rinzel D	+0.2%	Didn't play
Oliver Moore C	+0.2%	Played
BUF
Rasmus Dahlin D	+1.2%	Played
Josh Doan R	+1.1%	Played
Noah Ostlund C	+1.0%	Played
Zach Benson L	+0.9%	Played
Tage Thompson C	+0.8%	Played

How the projection moved on game day (5.96 → 5.99)

12:21 AM 5.96 first run
12:28 AM 5.96 no change
12:43 AM 5.96 no change
12:53 AM 5.96 no change
1:43 AM 5.96 no change
2:36 AM 5.96 no change
11:18 AM 5.96 BUF goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: Unconfirmed → Likely
1:17 PM 5.96 CHI goalie Spencer Knight: Unconfirmed → Likely; CHI lineup: Ben Pope Oct 3 11:51 AM
1:51 PM 5.96 no change
2:42 PM 5.96 no change
2:50 PM 5.96 no change
3:17 PM 5.96 CHI goalie Spencer Knight: Likely → Confirmed
5:00 PM 5.99 +0.03Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.03; Line 6.5 o+104 → 6.5 o-105
5:17 PM 5.99 no change
6:17 PM 5.99 no change
6:43 PM 5.99 CHI lineup: Ben Pope Oct 3 6:39 PM; BUF goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: Likely → Confirmed; Olen Zellweger (BUF) off day-to-day; BUF lineup: Rachel Lenzi Oct 3 6:40 PM
6:45 PM 5.99 no change

10:00 PM ETAVOID near miss −0.03 was SLAM

U 6.5 ✓ under

CGY#30 OFF / #28 DEF12.95●

D. Cooley ✓ Good 68

VAN#21 OFF / #32 DEF43.01●

L. Meriläinen ✓ Trash 4

5 goals · proj 5.96 · P(7+) 46%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
CGY	2.07	0.47	+3.6%	0.40	–	-2.4%	-0.5%
VAN	2.11	0.59	-3.7%	0.40	–	+1.7%	-0.6%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CGY	1.91#28 of 32	2.22#31 of 32	2.07goals
VAN	1.98#18 of 32	2.19#30 of 32	2.11goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CGY	0.42#32 of 32	0.62#30 of 32	0.47goals
VAN	0.58#12 of 32	0.56#17 of 32	0.59goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
CGY
Matt Coronato R	-1.5%	Played
Morgan Frost C	-1.3%	Played
Jonathan Huberdeau L	-0.8%	Didn't play
Mikael Backlund C	-0.4%	Played
Ryan Strome C	-0.4%	Played
VAN
Jake DeBrusk L	-1.9%	Didn't play
Brock Boeser R	-1.7%	Played
Elias Pettersson C	-1.6%	Played
Marco Rossi C	-1.1%	Played
Linus Karlsson C	-1.0%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
CGY
Morgan Frost C	+0.9%	Played
Connor Zary C	+0.8%	Didn't play
Joel Hanley D	+0.5%	Played
Matt Coronato R	+0.4%	Played
Adam Klapka R	+0.4%	Played
VAN
Linus Karlsson C	+0.7%	Played
Jake DeBrusk L	+0.6%	Didn't play
Elias Pettersson C	+0.5%	Played
Zeev Buium D	+0.4%	Played
Marco Rossi C	+0.4%	Played

How the projection moved on game day (6.19 → 5.96)

12:21 AM 6.19 first run
12:28 AM 6.19 no change
12:43 AM 6.19 no change
12:53 AM 6.19 no change
1:43 AM 6.19 no change
2:36 AM 6.19 no change
11:18 AM 6.19 VAN goalie: Kevin Lankinen → Leevi Merilainen +0.00; CGY goalie: Dustin Wolf → Devin Cooley +0.00
1:17 PM 6.19 no change
1:51 PM 6.19 VAN goalie Leevi Merilainen: Unconfirmed → Likely
2:42 PM 6.19 Injuries / lineup: Jake DeBrusk (VAN) out, Aatu Räty (VAN) back in +0.00
2:50 PM 6.19 Injuries / lineup: Connor Zary (CGY) out +0.00; CGY goalie Devin Cooley: Unconfirmed → Confirmed; CGY lineup: Derek Wills Oct 3 2:47 PM
3:17 PM 6.19 VAN lineup: Ben Kuzma Oct 3 2:51 PM
5:00 PM 5.96 -0.23CGY goalie Devin Cooley: rating updated -0.12; VAN goalie Leevi Merilainen: rating updated -0.05; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.03; Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated -0.03; Line 6.5 o+103 → 6.5 o+107
5:17 PM 5.96 no change
6:17 PM 5.96 no change
6:43 PM 5.96 no change
6:45 PM 5.96 no change
7:17 PM 5.96 no change
7:45 PM 5.96 no change
8:18 PM 5.96 no change
8:44 PM 5.96 no change
8:45 PM 5.96 no change
9:17 PM 5.96 Line 6.5 o+107 → 6.5 o+104
9:28 PM 5.96 no change
9:45 PM 5.96 VAN goalie Leevi Merilainen: Likely → Confirmed; VAN lineup: Thomas Drance Oct 3 9:41 PM
9:57 PM 5.96 no change

7:00 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

OTT#5 OFF / #4 DEF33.36●

L. Ullmark ✓ Good 61

TOR#28 OFF / #30 DEF22.51●

S. Bobrovsky ✓ OK 33

5 goals · proj 5.87 · P(7+) 45%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
OTT	2.26	0.65	-0.8%	0.40	–	+1.8%	+0.9%
TOR	1.77	0.45	-3.1%	0.40	–	-1.8%	+0.8%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
OTT	2.17#9 of 32	2.14#29 of 32	2.26goals
TOR	1.96#21 of 32	1.86#1 of 32	1.77goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
OTT	0.63#8 of 32	0.57#20 of 32	0.65goals
TOR	0.51#26 of 32	0.49#3 of 32	0.45goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
OTT
Tim Stützle C	-4.2%	Played
Drake Batherson R	-3.2%	Played
Dylan Cozens C	-2.5%	Played
Shane Pinto C	-1.5%	Played
Jake Sanderson D	-1.3%	Played
TOR
William Nylander R	-4.3%	Played
Auston Matthews C	-3.7%	Played
John Tavares C	-3.6%	Played
Easton Cowan R	-0.6%	Played
Morgan Rielly D	-0.5%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
OTT
Jordan Spence D	+2.1%	Played
Drake Batherson R	+1.5%	Played
Dylan Cozens C	+1.4%	Played
Tim Stützle C	+1.2%	Played
Tyler Kleven D	+1.0%	Played
TOR
Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	+0.3%	Played
John Tavares C	+0.2%	Played
Darren Raddysh D	+0.2%	Played
Easton Cowan R	+0.1%	Played
Jack Roslovic C	+0.1%	Played

How the projection moved on game day (5.73 → 5.87)

12:21 AM 5.73 first run
12:28 AM 5.73 no change
12:43 AM 5.73 no change
12:53 AM 5.73 no change
1:43 AM 5.73 no change
2:36 AM 5.73 no change
11:18 AM 5.73 TOR goalie: Anthony Stolarz → Sergei Bobrovsky +0.00; Jorian Donovan (OTT) off day-to-day
1:17 PM 5.73 OTT goalie Linus Ullmark: Unconfirmed → Likely; Jake Sanderson (OTT) off day-to-day; OTT lineup: Jackson Starr Oct 3 11:55 AM
1:51 PM 5.73 no change
2:42 PM 5.73 no change
2:50 PM 5.73 no change
3:17 PM 5.73 no change
5:00 PM 5.87 +0.14TOR goalie Sergei Bobrovsky: rating updated +0.13; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.02; Line 6.5 o+105 → 6.5 o+107
5:17 PM 5.87 no change
6:17 PM 5.87 Line 6.5 o+107 → 6.5 o+106
6:43 PM 5.87 no change
6:45 PM 5.87 Line 6.5 o+106 → 6.5 o+107

10:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

LAK#25 OFF / #14 DEF43.05●

A. Forsberg ✓ Mid 51

SJS#19 OFF / #29 DEF52.81●

Y. Askarov ✓ Trash 5

9 goals · proj 5.86 · P(7+) 45%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
LAK	1.96	0.60	+3.4%	0.40	–	+0.4%	-0.7%
SJS	1.84	0.63	-2.3%	0.40	–	-0.6%	+0.8%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
LAK	1.94#25 of 32	2.08#21 of 32	1.96goals
SJS	1.95#23 of 32	1.94#3 of 32	1.84goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
LAK	0.46#28 of 32	0.71#32 of 32	0.60goals
SJS	0.61#10 of 32	0.57#22 of 32	0.63goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
LAK
Artemi Panarin L	-3.9%	Played
Adrian Kempe R	-3.2%	Played
Kevin Fiala L	-1.6%	Didn't play
Quinton Byfield R	-1.6%	Played
Alex Laferriere R	-0.9%	Played
SJS
Macklin Celebrini C	-4.9%	Played
Will Smith C	-2.1%	Played
Tyler Toffoli C	-2.0%	Played
Alexander Wennberg C	-0.9%	Played
Kiefer Sherwood L	-0.8%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
LAK
Brandt Clarke D	+1.8%	Played
Kevin Fiala L	+1.2%	Didn't play
Artemi Panarin L	+1.1%	Played
Adrian Kempe R	+1.0%	Played
Alex Laferriere R	+0.9%	Played
SJS
Macklin Celebrini C	+0.8%	Played
Tyler Toffoli C	+0.7%	Played
Dmitry Orlov D	+0.6%	Played
Will Smith C	+0.5%	Played
Adam Gaudette R	+0.5%	Didn't play

How the projection moved on game day (5.88 → 5.86)

12:21 AM 5.88 first run
12:28 AM 5.88 no change
12:43 AM 5.88 no change
12:53 AM 5.88 no change
1:43 AM 5.88 no change
2:36 AM 5.88 no change
11:18 AM 5.88 no change
1:17 PM 5.88 no change
1:51 PM 5.88 SJS goalie Yaroslav Askarov: Unconfirmed → Likely; SJS lineup: Max Miller Oct 3 1:25 PM
2:42 PM 5.88 LAK goalie: Darcy Kuemper → Anton Forsberg +0.00; SJS goalie Yaroslav Askarov: Likely → Confirmed; Jacob Trouba (SJS) day-to-day; SJS lineup: Max Miller Oct 3 2:11 PM
2:50 PM 5.88 no change
3:17 PM 5.88 Injuries / lineup: Samuel Helenius (LAK) out +0.00; LAK lineup: Noah Sher Oct 3 2:54 PM
5:00 PM 5.86 -0.02LAK goalie Anton Forsberg: rating updated -0.02; Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated +0.01; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 6.5 o+104 → 6.5 o+102
5:17 PM 5.86 no change
6:17 PM 5.86 no change
6:43 PM 5.86 no change
6:45 PM 5.86 no change
7:17 PM 5.86 LAK lineup: Zach Dooley Oct 3 7:08 PM
7:45 PM 5.86 no change
8:18 PM 5.86 no change
8:44 PM 5.86 no change
8:45 PM 5.86 no change
9:17 PM 5.86 no change
9:28 PM 5.86 no change
9:45 PM 5.86 LAK goalie Anton Forsberg: Likely → Confirmed; LAK lineup: Zach Dooley Oct 3 9:39 PM; SJS lineup: Max Miller Oct 3 9:38 PM
9:57 PM 5.86 Jacob Trouba (SJS) off day-to-day; Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o+105

8:00 PM ETAVOID

U 6.5 ✓ under

DAL#15 OFF / #9 DEF12.79●

C. DeSmith ✓ Good 73

NSH#23 OFF / #25 DEF22.87●

J. Saros ✓ OK 34

3 goals · proj 5.66 · P(7+) 43%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
DAL	2.04	0.68	-0.9%	0.40	-8.0%	-0.3%	-1.7%
NSH	1.85	0.57	-4.3%	0.40	+6.5%	-0.4%	+0.4%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
DAL	1.97#19 of 32	2.13#26 of 32	2.04goals
NSH	1.94#24 of 32	1.96#7 of 32	1.85goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
DAL	0.66#2 of 32	0.57#19 of 32	0.68goals
NSH	0.54#18 of 32	0.58#23 of 32	0.57goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
DAL
Jason Robertson L	-5.0%	Played
Wyatt Johnston C	-4.5%	Played
Mikko Rantanen R	-3.6%	Played
Roope Hintz C	-2.2%	Played
Matt Duchene C	-2.0%	Didn't play
NSH
Filip Forsberg L	-4.2%	Played
Steven Stamkos C	-4.0%	Played
Ryan O'Reilly C	-3.0%	Played
Roman Josi D	-1.4%	Played
Jonathan Marchessault R	-1.1%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
DAL
Jason Robertson L	+1.4%	Played
Miro Heiskanen D	+1.2%	Played
Mikko Rantanen R	+1.0%	Played
Thomas Harley D	+0.9%	Played
Justin Hryckowian C	+0.8%	Played
NSH
Filip Forsberg L	+0.7%	Played
Steven Stamkos C	+0.7%	Played
Roman Josi D	+0.4%	Played
Adam Wilsby D	+0.4%	Played
Jonathan Marchessault R	+0.2%	Played

How the projection moved on game day (5.80 → 5.66)

12:21 AM 5.80 first run
12:28 AM 5.80 no change
12:43 AM 5.80 no change
12:53 AM 5.80 no change
1:43 AM 5.80 no change
2:36 AM 5.80 no change
11:18 AM 5.80 DAL goalie: Jake Oettinger → Casey DeSmith +0.00; DAL lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-02)
1:17 PM 5.80 NSH goalie Juuse Saros: Unconfirmed → Likely
1:51 PM 5.80 no change
2:42 PM 5.80 DAL goalie Casey DeSmith: Unconfirmed → Confirmed
2:50 PM 5.80 no change
3:17 PM 5.80 no change
5:00 PM 5.67 -0.13Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.08; DAL goalie Casey DeSmith: rating updated -0.05; Line 5.5 o-136 → 6.5 o-102
5:17 PM 5.67 no change
6:17 PM 5.67 no change
6:43 PM 5.67 no change
6:45 PM 5.67 no change
7:17 PM 5.67 Line 6.5 o-102 → 6.5 o+110
7:45 PM 5.66 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Colin Blackwell (DAL) back in -0.01; DAL lineup: Mike Heika Oct 3 7:37 PM; NSH goalie Juuse Saros: Likely → Confirmed; NSH lineup: Alex Daughertry Oct 3 7:44 PM

7:00 PM ETAVOID

U 5.5 ✓ under

CAR#3 OFF / #1 DEF32.79●

P. Kochetkov ✓ OK 39

PHI#31 OFF / #17 DEF22.73●

J. Woll ✓ Mid 51

5 goals · proj 5.51 · P(7+) 41%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
CAR	2.09	0.69	-2.3%	0.40	-8.0%	+0.3%	-2.6%
PHI	1.75	0.41	-1.3%	0.40	+6.5%	-0.3%	+1.6%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CAR	2.12#12 of 32	2.03#18 of 32	2.09goals
PHI	1.81#32 of 32	1.98#10 of 32	1.75goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CAR	0.64#5 of 32	0.59#24 of 32	0.69goals
PHI	0.46#29 of 32	0.49#4 of 32	0.41goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
CAR
Sebastian Aho C	-4.4%	Played
Andrei Svechnikov R	-3.8%	Played
Seth Jarvis C	-3.2%	Didn't play
Nikolaj Ehlers L	-3.1%	Played
Jackson Blake R	-2.5%	Played
PHI
Travis Konecny R	-2.0%	Played
Trevor Zegras C	-1.9%	Played
Matvei Michkov R	-1.8%	Played
Owen Tippett R	-1.6%	Played
Tyson Foerster R	-0.6%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
CAR
Jackson Blake R	+1.8%	Played
Nikolaj Ehlers L	+1.4%	Played
Logan Stankoven C	+1.4%	Played
Sean Walker D	+1.4%	Played
Shayne Gostisbehere D	+1.4%	Played
PHI
Jamie Drysdale D	+1.1%	Played
Owen Tippett R	+1.0%	Played
Noah Cates L	+0.9%	Played
Matvei Michkov R	+0.9%	Played
Trevor Zegras C	+0.8%	Played

Also out: CAR: Alexander Nikishin -0.5% attack, +0.8% defense

How the projection moved on game day (5.46 → 5.51)

12:21 AM 5.46 first run
12:28 AM 5.46 no change
12:43 AM 5.46 no change
12:53 AM 5.46 no change
1:43 AM 5.46 no change
2:36 AM 5.46 no change
11:18 AM 5.46 CAR goalie: Brandon Bussi → Pyotr Kochetkov +0.00; CAR lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-02); PHI goalie Joseph Woll: Unconfirmed → Likely; PHI lineup: Jordan Hall Oct 3 10:34 AM
1:17 PM 5.46 PHI goalie Joseph Woll: Likely → Confirmed
1:51 PM 5.46 no change
2:42 PM 5.46 no change
2:50 PM 5.46 no change
3:17 PM 5.46 no change
5:00 PM 5.53 +0.07Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.07; Injuries / lineup: adjustment updated +0.01; CAR goalie Pyotr Kochetkov: rating updated -0.01; CAR goalie Pyotr Kochetkov: Unconfirmed → Confirmed; Line 5.5 o-137 → 5.5 o-132
5:17 PM 5.53 no change
6:17 PM 5.53 no change
6:43 PM 5.51 -0.01Injuries / lineup: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (CAR) back in, Mike Reilly (CAR) back in -0.01; CAR lineup: Walt Ruff Oct 3 6:43 PM; PHI lineup: Jordan Hall Oct 3 6:40 PM

7:30 PM ETAVOID

O 5.5 ✗ went over

NJD#13 OFF / #8 DEF02.69●

N. Daws ✓ OK 26

NYI#22 OFF / #21 DEF62.71●

I. Sorokin ✓ Strong 89

6 goals · proj 5.40 · P(7+) 40%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
NJD	2.01	0.55	-7.3%	0.40	–	-3.1%	+1.6%
NYI	1.87	0.41	-0.2%	0.40	–	+3.3%	-1.4%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NJD	1.93#26 of 32	2.13#28 of 32	2.01goals
NYI	1.92#27 of 32	2.00#12 of 32	1.87goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
NJD	0.53#20 of 32	0.57#18 of 32	0.55goals
NYI	0.49#27 of 32	0.46#2 of 32	0.41goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Played?
NJD
Jack Hughes C	-3.7%	Played
Nico Hischier C	-3.6%	Played
Jesper Bratt L	-3.4%	Played
Timo Meier R	-1.9%	Played
Dougie Hamilton D	-1.3%	Played
NYI
Bo Horvat C	-2.6%	Played
Mathew Barzal C	-2.5%	Didn't play
Matthew Schaefer D	-2.1%	Played
Brayden Schenn C	-1.0%	Played
Calum Ritchie C	-0.7%	Played

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Played?
NJD
Jack Hughes C	+1.1%	Played
Luke Hughes D	+1.0%	Played
Jesper Bratt L	+0.9%	Played
Dougie Hamilton D	+0.9%	Played
Timo Meier R	+0.8%	Played
NYI
Mathew Barzal C	+1.0%	Didn't play
Matthew Schaefer D	+0.9%	Played
Emil Heineman L	+0.7%	Played
Ondrej Palat L	+0.5%	Played
Brayden Schenn C	+0.5%	Played

How the projection moved on game day (5.33 → 5.40)

12:21 AM 5.33 first run
12:28 AM 5.33 no change
12:43 AM 5.33 no change
12:53 AM 5.33 no change
1:43 AM 5.33 no change
2:36 AM 5.33 no change
11:18 AM 5.33 NYI lineup: Ethan Sears Oct 3 10:31 AM
1:17 PM 5.33 NJD goalie: Jake Allen → Nico Daws +0.00
1:51 PM 5.33 no change
2:42 PM 5.33 no change
2:50 PM 5.33 no change
3:17 PM 5.33 no change
5:00 PM 5.40 +0.07NJD goalie Nico Daws: rating updated +0.07
5:17 PM 5.40 no change
6:17 PM 5.40 no change
6:43 PM 5.40 no change
6:45 PM 5.40 no change
7:17 PM 5.40 NJD lineup: New Jersey Devils Oct 3 7:15 PM

Two rows per game (away, then home). ● = team projected high-scoring. Proj = (5v5 + PP + Oth) × goalie (Gl) × back-to-back (B2B) × team speed (Spd) × injuries (Inj). Hover or tap any underlined label for an explanation.