5 games · 0 flags · 3 of 5 went over the line · avg 5.4 goals (projected 5.7) · calls: SLAM – · 1U – · PASS – · AVOID 2 of 5 stayed under
Breakdown (for scoring):greatgoodmidbadtrash
Team
Result
Goalies
Projection breakdown
Team
G
Proj
Total goals
Proj total
P(7+)
Line
Pick
Goalie
5v5
PP
Gl
Oth
B2B
Spd
Inj
ANA#5 OFF / #28 DEF
4
2.84●
7O 6.5
6.07
47%
6.5 → 6.5
10:00 PM ET AVOID ✗ went over
L. Dostal ✓OK 34
1.93
0.47
+2.1%
0.39
–
n/a
n/a
VGK#6 OFF / #2 DEF
3
3.23●
C. Hart ✓Trash 9
2.17
0.69
-0.9%
0.39
–
n/a
n/a
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team
5-on-5
Power play
OFF
OPP DEF
Proj
OFF
OPP DEF
Proj
ANA
2.17#8 of 32
1.83#1 of 32
1.93goals
0.57#14 of 32
0.45#1 of 32
0.47goals
VGK
2.11#13 of 32
2.12#23 of 32
2.17goals
0.62#8 of 32
0.61#29 of 32
0.69goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Team
Top 5 attackers
Top 5 defenders
Player
If out
Played?
Player
If out
Played?
ANA
Cutter Gauthier L
-3.1%
Played
Ian Moore D
+0.6%
Didn't play
Beckett Sennecke R
-3.0%
Played
Leo Carlsson C
+0.6%
Played
Leo Carlsson C
-3.0%
Played
Beckett Sennecke R
+0.6%
Played
Troy Terry R
-2.1%
Didn't play
Cutter Gauthier L
+0.4%
Played
Mikael Granlund C
-1.8%
Played
Troy Terry R
+0.4%
Didn't play
VGK
Jack Eichel C
-4.7%
Played
Tomas Hertl C
+1.6%
Played
Mitch Marner R
-4.0%
Played
Shea Theodore D
+1.3%
Played
Tomas Hertl C
-3.7%
Played
Mark Stone R
+1.2%
Played
Mark Stone R
-3.6%
Played
Ivan Barbashev L
+1.2%
Played
Ivan Barbashev L
-1.8%
Played
Noah Hanifin D
+1.1%
Played
Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.
How the projection moved on game day (6.07 → 6.07)
7:36 PM 6.07 first run
9:54 PM 6.07 A.J. Greer (ANA) off day-to-day; ANA lineup: Derek Lee Oct 2 9:40 PM; VGK lineup: Hannah Kirkell Oct 2 9:38 PM
9:59 PM 6.07 no change
A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.
AVOID: ANA projects under the 2.95-goal high-scoring cutoff (ANA 2.84). The 6.07 total looks high, but most of it comes from VGK; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, ANA is bad (1.93) and VGK is good (2.17); on the power play, ANA is bad (0.47) and VGK is great (0.69). ANA faces Carter Hart, a Trash goalie, grade 9 (+2.1%); VGK faces Lukas Dostal, an OK goalie, grade 34 (-0.9%). ANA 2.84: 0.17 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: Carter Hart in goal +0.06 (a Trash goalie, grade 9, +2.1%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.13 (its attack ranks #8 of 32, VGK's defense #1); power play -0.09 (its power play ranks #14, VGK's penalty kill and penalty habits #1).VGK 3.23: 0.22 goals above what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: power play +0.13 (its power play ranks #8, ANA's penalty kill and penalty habits #29); 5-on-5 matchup +0.11 (its attack ranks #13 of 32, ANA's defense #23). Holding it back: Lukas Dostal in goal -0.03 (an OK goalie, grade 34, -0.9%). The model projects 6.07 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 47% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (ANA 4, VGK 3), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.
WSH#11 OFF / #19 DEF
5
2.83●
7O 6.5
5.71
44%
6.5 → 6.5
7:00 PM ET AVOID ✗ went over
L. Thompson ✓Strong 98
2.01
0.48
-2.2%
0.39
–
n/a
n/a
CAR#3 OFF / #1 DEF
2
2.88●
B. Bussi ⇄ Kochetkov
2.23
0.61
-11.0%
0.39
–
n/a
n/a
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team
5-on-5
Power play
OFF
OPP DEF
Proj
OFF
OPP DEF
Proj
WSH
2.15#9 of 32
1.93#3 of 32
2.01goals
0.52#24 of 32
0.51#7 of 32
0.48goals
CAR
2.15#10 of 32
2.14#28 of 32
2.23goals
0.58#12 of 32
0.58#24 of 32
0.61goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Team
Top 5 attackers
Top 5 defenders
Player
If out
Played?
Player
If out
Played?
WSH
Alex Ovechkin L
-3.6%
Played
Jakob Chychrun D
+1.2%
Played
Tom Wilson R
-3.2%
Played
Rasmus Sandin D
+0.8%
Didn't play
Dylan Strome C
-2.6%
Played
Justin Sourdif C
+0.7%
Played
Jakob Chychrun D
-2.6%
Played
Ethen Frank R
+0.5%
Didn't play
Aliaksei Protas L
-1.7%
Played
Dylan Strome C
+0.5%
Played
CAR
Sebastian Aho C
-4.4%
Played
Jackson Blake R
+1.8%
Played
Andrei Svechnikov R
-3.8%
Played
Nikolaj Ehlers L
+1.4%
Played
Seth Jarvis C
-3.4%
Didn't play
Logan Stankoven C
+1.4%
Played
Nikolaj Ehlers L
-3.1%
Played
Sean Walker D
+1.4%
Played
Jackson Blake R
-2.5%
Played
Shayne Gostisbehere D
+1.3%
Played
Also out: CAR: Alexander Nikishin -0.5% attack, +0.8% defense
Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.
AVOID: WSH and CAR project under the 2.95-goal high-scoring cutoff (WSH 2.83, CAR 2.88). At 5-on-5, WSH is mid (2.01) and CAR is great (2.23); on the power play, WSH is bad (0.48) and CAR is good (0.61). WSH faces Pyotr Kochetkov, a Mid goalie, grade 50 (-2.2%), but the expected starter later changed to Brandon Bussi, so this part is out of date; CAR faces Logan Thompson, a Strong goalie, grade 98 (-11.0%). WSH 2.83: 0.18 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Holding it back: power play -0.08 (its power play ranks #24, CAR's penalty kill and penalty habits #7); Pyotr Kochetkov in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 50, -2.2%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.05 (its attack ranks #9 of 32, CAR's defense #3).CAR 2.88: 0.13 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.17 (its attack ranks #10 of 32, WSH's defense #28); power play +0.05 (its power play ranks #12, WSH's penalty kill and penalty habits #24). Holding it back: Logan Thompson in goal -0.36 (a Strong goalie, grade 98, -11.0%). The model projects 5.71 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 44% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (WSH 5, CAR 2), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.
BOS#19 OFF / #21 DEF
4
3.00●
7O 5.5
5.71
44%
5.5 → 5.5
8:00 PM ET AVOID ✗ went over
J. Swayman ✓Strong 95
2.14
0.54
-2.3%
0.39
–
n/a
n/a
WPG#21 OFF / #26 DEF
3
2.70●
S. Skinner ✓Mid 51
2.04
0.52
-8.8%
0.39
–
n/a
n/a
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team
5-on-5
Power play
OFF
OPP DEF
Proj
OFF
OPP DEF
Proj
BOS
2.10#14 of 32
2.10#22 of 32
2.14goals
0.54#17 of 32
0.55#13 of 32
0.54goals
WPG
1.97#21 of 32
2.13#26 of 32
2.04goals
0.54#20 of 32
0.54#10 of 32
0.52goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Team
Top 5 attackers
Top 5 defenders
Player
If out
Played?
Player
If out
Played?
BOS
David Pastrnak R
-4.2%
Played
David Pastrnak R
+0.9%
Played
Morgan Geekie C
-3.3%
Played
Morgan Geekie C
+0.7%
Played
Pavel Zacha C
-2.3%
Played
Mason Lohrei D
+0.7%
Played
Elias Lindholm C
-1.4%
Played
Casey Mittelstadt C
+0.5%
Played
Charlie McAvoy D
-1.1%
Didn't play
Fraser Minten C
+0.3%
Played
WPG
Kyle Connor L
-5.0%
Played
Cole Perfetti C
+1.2%
Played
Mark Scheifele C
-4.5%
Played
Josh Morrissey D
+1.1%
Played
Gabriel Vilardi C
-2.8%
Played
Nino Niederreiter R
+0.9%
Played
Josh Morrissey D
-1.5%
Played
Alex Iafallo L
+0.6%
Played
Cole Perfetti C
-1.4%
Played
Vladislav Namestnikov C
+0.5%
Played
Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.
AVOID: WPG projects under the 2.95-goal high-scoring cutoff (WPG 2.70); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, BOS is good (2.14) and WPG is mid (2.04); on the power play, BOS is mid (0.54) and WPG is bad (0.52). BOS faces Stuart Skinner, a Mid goalie, grade 51 (-2.3%); WPG faces Jeremy Swayman, a Strong goalie, grade 95 (-8.8%). BOS 3.00: 0.01 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.08 (its attack ranks #14 of 32, WPG's defense #22). Holding it back: Stuart Skinner in goal -0.07 (a Mid goalie, grade 51, -2.3%); power play -0.02 (its power play ranks #17, WPG's penalty kill and penalty habits #13).WPG 2.70: 0.31 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Holding it back: Jeremy Swayman in goal -0.26 (a Strong goalie, grade 95, -8.8%); power play -0.03 (its power play ranks #20, BOS's penalty kill and penalty habits #10); 5-on-5 matchup -0.02 (its attack ranks #21 of 32, BOS's defense #26). The model projects 5.71 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 44% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (BOS 4, WPG 3), so it went over 5.5 and the call was wrong.
STL#30 OFF / #12 DEF
4
2.68●
4U 5.5
5.56
42%
5.5 → 5.5
9:00 PM ET AVOID ✓ under
J. Hofer ✓Good 74
1.89
0.50
-3.5%
0.39
–
n/a
n/a
DAL#12 OFF / #7 DEF
0
2.88●
J. Oettinger ✓Good 66
1.99
0.62
-4.4%
0.39
–
n/a
n/a
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team
5-on-5
Power play
OFF
OPP DEF
Proj
OFF
OPP DEF
Proj
STL
1.99#18 of 32
1.95#5 of 32
1.89goals
0.46#30 of 32
0.59#25 of 32
0.50goals
DAL
2.04#16 of 32
2.01#13 of 32
1.99goals
0.67#2 of 32
0.51#6 of 32
0.62goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Team
Top 5 attackers
Top 5 defenders
Player
If out
Played?
Player
If out
Played?
STL
Robert Thomas C
-2.5%
Played
Dylan Holloway L
+0.8%
Played
Jimmy Snuggerud R
-1.7%
Played
Cam Fowler D
+0.7%
Played
Dylan Holloway L
-1.6%
Played
Dalibor Dvorsky R
+0.7%
Played
Pavel Buchnevich L
-1.3%
Played
Jake Neighbours L
+0.7%
Played
Jake Neighbours L
-0.9%
Played
Jimmy Snuggerud R
+0.6%
Played
DAL
Jason Robertson L
-5.0%
Played
Jason Robertson L
+1.4%
Played
Wyatt Johnston C
-4.5%
Played
Miro Heiskanen D
+1.2%
Played
Mikko Rantanen R
-3.5%
Played
Mikko Rantanen R
+1.0%
Played
Roope Hintz C
-2.1%
Played
Thomas Harley D
+0.9%
Played
Matt Duchene C
-2.1%
Didn't play
Justin Hryckowian C
+0.8%
Played
Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.
AVOID: STL and DAL project under the 2.95-goal high-scoring cutoff (STL 2.68, DAL 2.88); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, STL is bad (1.89) and DAL is mid (1.99); on the power play, STL is bad (0.50) and DAL is good (0.62). STL faces Jake Oettinger, a Good goalie, grade 66 (-3.5%); DAL faces Joel Hofer, a Good goalie, grade 74 (-4.4%). STL 2.68: 0.33 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.17 (its attack ranks #18 of 32, DAL's defense #5); Jake Oettinger in goal -0.10 (a Good goalie, grade 66, -3.5%); power play -0.06 (its power play ranks #30, DAL's penalty kill and penalty habits #25).DAL 2.88: 0.14 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: power play +0.06 (its power play ranks #2, STL's penalty kill and penalty habits #6). Holding it back: Joel Hofer in goal -0.13 (a Good goalie, grade 74, -4.4%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.07 (its attack ranks #16 of 32, STL's defense #13). The model projects 5.56 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 42% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 4 goals (STL 4, DAL 0), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.
NYR#26 OFF / #15 DEF
2
2.53●
2U 5.5
5.28
40%
5.5 → 5.5
6:30 PM ET AVOID ✓ under
D. Garand ⇄ Shesterkin
1.92
0.54
-1.9%
0.39
-8.0%
n/a
n/a
DET#16 OFF / #11 DEF
0
2.75●
J. Gibson ✓Mid 46
1.89
0.60
-4.1%
0.39
+6.5%
n/a
n/a
Matchup: 5-on-5 & power play
Team
5-on-5
Power play
OFF
OPP DEF
Proj
OFF
OPP DEF
Proj
NYR
1.91#29 of 32
2.06#19 of 32
1.92goals
0.56#16 of 32
0.54#9 of 32
0.54goals
DET
1.92#28 of 32
2.02#16 of 32
1.89goals
0.61#9 of 32
0.54#11 of 32
0.60goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Team
Top 5 attackers
Top 5 defenders
Player
If out
Played?
Player
If out
Played?
NYR
Mika Zibanejad C
-3.1%
Played
Alexis Lafrenière L
+0.8%
Played
Alexis Lafrenière L
-2.4%
Played
Adam Fox D
+0.6%
Played
J.T. Miller C
-2.1%
Played
Gabe Perreault R
+0.4%
Played
Adam Fox D
-1.7%
Played
Vladislav Gavrikov D
+0.4%
Played
Will Cuylle L
-0.8%
Played
Tye Kartye L
+0.4%
Played
DET
Alex DeBrincat R
-5.1%
Played
Moritz Seider D
+1.3%
Played
Lucas Raymond L
-3.7%
Played
Alex DeBrincat R
+1.2%
Played
Dylan Larkin C
-3.5%
Didn't play
Lucas Raymond L
+1.2%
Played
Moritz Seider D
-1.1%
Played
Emmitt Finnie C
+0.7%
Played
Andrew Copp C
-0.3%
Played
Dylan Larkin C
+0.6%
Didn't play
Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.
AVOID: NYR and DET project under the 2.95-goal high-scoring cutoff (NYR 2.53, DET 2.75); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, NYR is bad (1.92) and DET is bad (1.89); on the power play, NYR is mid (0.54) and DET is good (0.60). NYR faces John Gibson, a Mid goalie, grade 46 (-1.9%); DET faces Igor Shesterkin, a Good goalie, grade 72 (-4.1%), but the expected starter later changed to Dylan Garand, so this part is out of date. Other factors: NYR played yesterday (-8%); DET's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%). NYR 2.53: 0.48 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.22 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.14 (its attack ranks #29 of 32, DET's defense #19); John Gibson in goal -0.05 (a Mid goalie, grade 46, -1.9%); power play -0.01 (its power play ranks #16, DET's penalty kill and penalty habits #9).DET 2.75: 0.27 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.18 (NYR played yesterday, +6.5%); power play +0.04 (its power play ranks #9, NYR's penalty kill and penalty habits #11). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.17 (its attack ranks #28 of 32, NYR's defense #16); Igor Shesterkin in goal -0.12 (a Good goalie, grade 72, -4.1%). The model projects 5.28 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 40% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 6 to 5.5, toward the under. Note: this game's breakdown was recorded on a later run than its projection, so the parts don't add up exactly. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 2 goals (NYR 2, DET 0), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.
10:00 PM ETAVOID
O 6.5✗ went over
ANA#5 OFF / #28 DEF42.84●
L. Dostal ✓OK 34
VGK#6 OFF / #2 DEF33.23●
C. Hart ✓Trash 9
7 goals · proj 6.07 · P(7+) 47%
5v5
PP
Gl
Oth
B2B
Spd
Inj
ANA
1.93
0.47
+2.1%
0.39
–
n/a
n/a
VGK
2.17
0.69
-0.9%
0.39
–
n/a
n/a
Why this call
Team
5-on-5
OFF
OPP DEF
Proj
ANA
2.17#8 of 32
1.83#1 of 32
1.93goals
VGK
2.11#13 of 32
2.12#23 of 32
2.17goals
Team
Power play
OFF
OPP DEF
Proj
ANA
0.57#14 of 32
0.45#1 of 32
0.47goals
VGK
0.62#8 of 32
0.61#29 of 32
0.69goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
Player
If out
Played?
ANA
Cutter Gauthier L
-3.1%
Played
Beckett Sennecke R
-3.0%
Played
Leo Carlsson C
-3.0%
Played
Troy Terry R
-2.1%
Didn't play
Mikael Granlund C
-1.8%
Played
VGK
Jack Eichel C
-4.7%
Played
Mitch Marner R
-4.0%
Played
Tomas Hertl C
-3.7%
Played
Mark Stone R
-3.6%
Played
Ivan Barbashev L
-1.8%
Played
Top 5 defenders
Player
If out
Played?
ANA
Ian Moore D
+0.6%
Didn't play
Leo Carlsson C
+0.6%
Played
Beckett Sennecke R
+0.6%
Played
Cutter Gauthier L
+0.4%
Played
Troy Terry R
+0.4%
Didn't play
VGK
Tomas Hertl C
+1.6%
Played
Shea Theodore D
+1.3%
Played
Mark Stone R
+1.2%
Played
Ivan Barbashev L
+1.2%
Played
Noah Hanifin D
+1.1%
Played
Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.
How the projection moved on game day (6.07 → 6.07)
7:36 PM 6.07 first run
9:54 PM 6.07 A.J. Greer (ANA) off day-to-day; ANA lineup: Derek Lee Oct 2 9:40 PM; VGK lineup: Hannah Kirkell Oct 2 9:38 PM
9:59 PM 6.07 no change
A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.
AVOID: ANA projects under the 2.95-goal high-scoring cutoff (ANA 2.84). The 6.07 total looks high, but most of it comes from VGK; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, ANA is bad (1.93) and VGK is good (2.17); on the power play, ANA is bad (0.47) and VGK is great (0.69). ANA faces Carter Hart, a Trash goalie, grade 9 (+2.1%); VGK faces Lukas Dostal, an OK goalie, grade 34 (-0.9%). ANA 2.84: 0.17 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: Carter Hart in goal +0.06 (a Trash goalie, grade 9, +2.1%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.13 (its attack ranks #8 of 32, VGK's defense #1); power play -0.09 (its power play ranks #14, VGK's penalty kill and penalty habits #1).VGK 3.23: 0.22 goals above what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: power play +0.13 (its power play ranks #8, ANA's penalty kill and penalty habits #29); 5-on-5 matchup +0.11 (its attack ranks #13 of 32, ANA's defense #23). Holding it back: Lukas Dostal in goal -0.03 (an OK goalie, grade 34, -0.9%). The model projects 6.07 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 47% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (ANA 4, VGK 3), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.
7:00 PM ETAVOID
O 6.5✗ went over
WSH#11 OFF / #19 DEF52.83●
L. Thompson ✓Strong 98
CAR#3 OFF / #1 DEF22.88●
B. Bussi ⇄ Kochetkov
7 goals · proj 5.71 · P(7+) 44%
5v5
PP
Gl
Oth
B2B
Spd
Inj
WSH
2.01
0.48
-2.2%
0.39
–
n/a
n/a
CAR
2.23
0.61
-11.0%
0.39
–
n/a
n/a
Why this call
Team
5-on-5
OFF
OPP DEF
Proj
WSH
2.15#9 of 32
1.93#3 of 32
2.01goals
CAR
2.15#10 of 32
2.14#28 of 32
2.23goals
Team
Power play
OFF
OPP DEF
Proj
WSH
0.52#24 of 32
0.51#7 of 32
0.48goals
CAR
0.58#12 of 32
0.58#24 of 32
0.61goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
Player
If out
Played?
WSH
Alex Ovechkin L
-3.6%
Played
Tom Wilson R
-3.2%
Played
Dylan Strome C
-2.6%
Played
Jakob Chychrun D
-2.6%
Played
Aliaksei Protas L
-1.7%
Played
CAR
Sebastian Aho C
-4.4%
Played
Andrei Svechnikov R
-3.8%
Played
Seth Jarvis C
-3.4%
Didn't play
Nikolaj Ehlers L
-3.1%
Played
Jackson Blake R
-2.5%
Played
Top 5 defenders
Player
If out
Played?
WSH
Jakob Chychrun D
+1.2%
Played
Rasmus Sandin D
+0.8%
Didn't play
Justin Sourdif C
+0.7%
Played
Ethen Frank R
+0.5%
Didn't play
Dylan Strome C
+0.5%
Played
CAR
Jackson Blake R
+1.8%
Played
Nikolaj Ehlers L
+1.4%
Played
Logan Stankoven C
+1.4%
Played
Sean Walker D
+1.4%
Played
Shayne Gostisbehere D
+1.3%
Played
Also out: CAR: Alexander Nikishin -0.5% attack, +0.8% defense
Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.
AVOID: WSH and CAR project under the 2.95-goal high-scoring cutoff (WSH 2.83, CAR 2.88). At 5-on-5, WSH is mid (2.01) and CAR is great (2.23); on the power play, WSH is bad (0.48) and CAR is good (0.61). WSH faces Pyotr Kochetkov, a Mid goalie, grade 50 (-2.2%), but the expected starter later changed to Brandon Bussi, so this part is out of date; CAR faces Logan Thompson, a Strong goalie, grade 98 (-11.0%). WSH 2.83: 0.18 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Holding it back: power play -0.08 (its power play ranks #24, CAR's penalty kill and penalty habits #7); Pyotr Kochetkov in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 50, -2.2%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.05 (its attack ranks #9 of 32, CAR's defense #3).CAR 2.88: 0.13 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.17 (its attack ranks #10 of 32, WSH's defense #28); power play +0.05 (its power play ranks #12, WSH's penalty kill and penalty habits #24). Holding it back: Logan Thompson in goal -0.36 (a Strong goalie, grade 98, -11.0%). The model projects 5.71 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 44% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (WSH 5, CAR 2), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.
8:00 PM ETAVOID
O 5.5✗ went over
BOS#19 OFF / #21 DEF43.00●
J. Swayman ✓Strong 95
WPG#21 OFF / #26 DEF32.70●
S. Skinner ✓Mid 51
7 goals · proj 5.71 · P(7+) 44%
5v5
PP
Gl
Oth
B2B
Spd
Inj
BOS
2.14
0.54
-2.3%
0.39
–
n/a
n/a
WPG
2.04
0.52
-8.8%
0.39
–
n/a
n/a
Why this call
Team
5-on-5
OFF
OPP DEF
Proj
BOS
2.10#14 of 32
2.10#22 of 32
2.14goals
WPG
1.97#21 of 32
2.13#26 of 32
2.04goals
Team
Power play
OFF
OPP DEF
Proj
BOS
0.54#17 of 32
0.55#13 of 32
0.54goals
WPG
0.54#20 of 32
0.54#10 of 32
0.52goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
Player
If out
Played?
BOS
David Pastrnak R
-4.2%
Played
Morgan Geekie C
-3.3%
Played
Pavel Zacha C
-2.3%
Played
Elias Lindholm C
-1.4%
Played
Charlie McAvoy D
-1.1%
Didn't play
WPG
Kyle Connor L
-5.0%
Played
Mark Scheifele C
-4.5%
Played
Gabriel Vilardi C
-2.8%
Played
Josh Morrissey D
-1.5%
Played
Cole Perfetti C
-1.4%
Played
Top 5 defenders
Player
If out
Played?
BOS
David Pastrnak R
+0.9%
Played
Morgan Geekie C
+0.7%
Played
Mason Lohrei D
+0.7%
Played
Casey Mittelstadt C
+0.5%
Played
Fraser Minten C
+0.3%
Played
WPG
Cole Perfetti C
+1.2%
Played
Josh Morrissey D
+1.1%
Played
Nino Niederreiter R
+0.9%
Played
Alex Iafallo L
+0.6%
Played
Vladislav Namestnikov C
+0.5%
Played
Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.
AVOID: WPG projects under the 2.95-goal high-scoring cutoff (WPG 2.70); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, BOS is good (2.14) and WPG is mid (2.04); on the power play, BOS is mid (0.54) and WPG is bad (0.52). BOS faces Stuart Skinner, a Mid goalie, grade 51 (-2.3%); WPG faces Jeremy Swayman, a Strong goalie, grade 95 (-8.8%). BOS 3.00: 0.01 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.08 (its attack ranks #14 of 32, WPG's defense #22). Holding it back: Stuart Skinner in goal -0.07 (a Mid goalie, grade 51, -2.3%); power play -0.02 (its power play ranks #17, WPG's penalty kill and penalty habits #13).WPG 2.70: 0.31 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Holding it back: Jeremy Swayman in goal -0.26 (a Strong goalie, grade 95, -8.8%); power play -0.03 (its power play ranks #20, BOS's penalty kill and penalty habits #10); 5-on-5 matchup -0.02 (its attack ranks #21 of 32, BOS's defense #26). The model projects 5.71 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 44% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (BOS 4, WPG 3), so it went over 5.5 and the call was wrong.
9:00 PM ETAVOID
U 5.5✓ under
STL#30 OFF / #12 DEF42.68●
J. Hofer ✓Good 74
DAL#12 OFF / #7 DEF02.88●
J. Oettinger ✓Good 66
4 goals · proj 5.56 · P(7+) 42%
5v5
PP
Gl
Oth
B2B
Spd
Inj
STL
1.89
0.50
-3.5%
0.39
–
n/a
n/a
DAL
1.99
0.62
-4.4%
0.39
–
n/a
n/a
Why this call
Team
5-on-5
OFF
OPP DEF
Proj
STL
1.99#18 of 32
1.95#5 of 32
1.89goals
DAL
2.04#16 of 32
2.01#13 of 32
1.99goals
Team
Power play
OFF
OPP DEF
Proj
STL
0.46#30 of 32
0.59#25 of 32
0.50goals
DAL
0.67#2 of 32
0.51#6 of 32
0.62goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
Player
If out
Played?
STL
Robert Thomas C
-2.5%
Played
Jimmy Snuggerud R
-1.7%
Played
Dylan Holloway L
-1.6%
Played
Pavel Buchnevich L
-1.3%
Played
Jake Neighbours L
-0.9%
Played
DAL
Jason Robertson L
-5.0%
Played
Wyatt Johnston C
-4.5%
Played
Mikko Rantanen R
-3.5%
Played
Roope Hintz C
-2.1%
Played
Matt Duchene C
-2.1%
Didn't play
Top 5 defenders
Player
If out
Played?
STL
Dylan Holloway L
+0.8%
Played
Cam Fowler D
+0.7%
Played
Dalibor Dvorsky R
+0.7%
Played
Jake Neighbours L
+0.7%
Played
Jimmy Snuggerud R
+0.6%
Played
DAL
Jason Robertson L
+1.4%
Played
Miro Heiskanen D
+1.2%
Played
Mikko Rantanen R
+1.0%
Played
Thomas Harley D
+0.9%
Played
Justin Hryckowian C
+0.8%
Played
Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.
AVOID: STL and DAL project under the 2.95-goal high-scoring cutoff (STL 2.68, DAL 2.88); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, STL is bad (1.89) and DAL is mid (1.99); on the power play, STL is bad (0.50) and DAL is good (0.62). STL faces Jake Oettinger, a Good goalie, grade 66 (-3.5%); DAL faces Joel Hofer, a Good goalie, grade 74 (-4.4%). STL 2.68: 0.33 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.17 (its attack ranks #18 of 32, DAL's defense #5); Jake Oettinger in goal -0.10 (a Good goalie, grade 66, -3.5%); power play -0.06 (its power play ranks #30, DAL's penalty kill and penalty habits #25).DAL 2.88: 0.14 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: power play +0.06 (its power play ranks #2, STL's penalty kill and penalty habits #6). Holding it back: Joel Hofer in goal -0.13 (a Good goalie, grade 74, -4.4%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.07 (its attack ranks #16 of 32, STL's defense #13). The model projects 5.56 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 42% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 4 goals (STL 4, DAL 0), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.
6:30 PM ETAVOID
U 5.5✓ under
NYR#26 OFF / #15 DEF22.53●
D. Garand ⇄ Shesterkin
DET#16 OFF / #11 DEF02.75●
J. Gibson ✓Mid 46
2 goals · proj 5.28 · P(7+) 40%
5v5
PP
Gl
Oth
B2B
Spd
Inj
NYR
1.92
0.54
-1.9%
0.39
-8.0%
n/a
n/a
DET
1.89
0.60
-4.1%
0.39
+6.5%
n/a
n/a
Why this call
Team
5-on-5
OFF
OPP DEF
Proj
NYR
1.91#29 of 32
2.06#19 of 32
1.92goals
DET
1.92#28 of 32
2.02#16 of 32
1.89goals
Team
Power play
OFF
OPP DEF
Proj
NYR
0.56#16 of 32
0.54#9 of 32
0.54goals
DET
0.61#9 of 32
0.54#11 of 32
0.60goals
Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders
Top 5 attackers
Player
If out
Played?
NYR
Mika Zibanejad C
-3.1%
Played
Alexis Lafrenière L
-2.4%
Played
J.T. Miller C
-2.1%
Played
Adam Fox D
-1.7%
Played
Will Cuylle L
-0.8%
Played
DET
Alex DeBrincat R
-5.1%
Played
Lucas Raymond L
-3.7%
Played
Dylan Larkin C
-3.5%
Didn't play
Moritz Seider D
-1.1%
Played
Andrew Copp C
-0.3%
Played
Top 5 defenders
Player
If out
Played?
NYR
Alexis Lafrenière L
+0.8%
Played
Adam Fox D
+0.6%
Played
Gabe Perreault R
+0.4%
Played
Vladislav Gavrikov D
+0.4%
Played
Tye Kartye L
+0.4%
Played
DET
Moritz Seider D
+1.3%
Played
Alex DeBrincat R
+1.2%
Played
Lucas Raymond L
+1.2%
Played
Emmitt Finnie C
+0.7%
Played
Dylan Larkin C
+0.6%
Didn't play
Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season. Rebuilt after the fact (no pre-game snapshot was saved that day): Played = dressed for the game (NHL box score), effects as of that game day.
AVOID: NYR and DET project under the 2.95-goal high-scoring cutoff (NYR 2.53, DET 2.75); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, NYR is bad (1.92) and DET is bad (1.89); on the power play, NYR is mid (0.54) and DET is good (0.60). NYR faces John Gibson, a Mid goalie, grade 46 (-1.9%); DET faces Igor Shesterkin, a Good goalie, grade 72 (-4.1%), but the expected starter later changed to Dylan Garand, so this part is out of date. Other factors: NYR played yesterday (-8%); DET's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%). NYR 2.53: 0.48 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.22 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.14 (its attack ranks #29 of 32, DET's defense #19); John Gibson in goal -0.05 (a Mid goalie, grade 46, -1.9%); power play -0.01 (its power play ranks #16, DET's penalty kill and penalty habits #9).DET 2.75: 0.27 goals below what an average team would score (3.01). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.18 (NYR played yesterday, +6.5%); power play +0.04 (its power play ranks #9, NYR's penalty kill and penalty habits #11). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.17 (its attack ranks #28 of 32, NYR's defense #16); Igor Shesterkin in goal -0.12 (a Good goalie, grade 72, -4.1%). The model projects 5.28 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 40% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 6 to 5.5, toward the under. Note: this game's breakdown was recorded on a later run than its projection, so the parts don't add up exactly. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 2 goals (NYR 2, DET 0), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.
Two rows per game (away, then home). ● = team projected high-scoring. Proj = (5v5 + PP + Oth) × goalie (Gl) × back-to-back (B2B) × team speed (Spd) × injuries (Inj). Hover or tap any underlined label for an explanation.
