NHL Total Model · 2026-10-20

10:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

CAR#1 OFF / #1 DEF63.96●

P. Kochetkov ✓ Mid 51

VAN#30 OFF / #32 DEF32.65●

L. Meriläinen ✓ Trash 9

9 goals · proj 6.61 · P(7+) 47%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
CAR	2.72	0.82	+2.4%	0.48	–	+1.3%	-4.8%
VAN	1.69	0.51	-2.3%	0.49	–	-1.5%	+2.3%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CAR	2.34#2 of 32	2.36#31 of 32	2.72goals
VAN	1.78#29 of 32	1.92#8 of 32	1.69goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
CAR	0.68#4 of 32	0.66#28 of 32	0.82goals
VAN	0.57#17 of 32	0.50#3 of 32	0.51goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
CAR
Sebastian Aho C	-4.5%	Plays
Andrei Svechnikov R	-4.1%	Plays
Nikolaj Ehlers L	-3.2%	Plays
Jackson Blake R	-2.5%	Plays
Seth Jarvis C	-2.2%	OUT · IR
VAN
Brock Boeser R	-1.8%	Plays
Jake DeBrusk L	-1.7%	Plays
Elias Pettersson C	-1.7%	Plays
Marco Rossi C	-1.2%	OUT
Linus Karlsson C	-1.0%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
CAR
Jackson Blake R	+1.8%	Plays
Shayne Gostisbehere D	+1.5%	Plays
Nikolaj Ehlers L	+1.4%	Plays
Sean Walker D	+1.4%	Plays
Logan Stankoven C	+1.3%	Plays
VAN
Linus Karlsson C	+0.7%	Plays
Jake DeBrusk L	+0.5%	Plays
Marco Rossi C	+0.5%	OUT
Elias Pettersson C	+0.4%	Plays
Tom Willander D	+0.4%	Plays

Also out: CAR: Taylor Hall -1.4% attack, +0.8% defense; Mark Jankowski -0.8% attack, +0.8% defense; Jordan Staal -0.7% attack, +0.4% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.61 → 6.61)

12:02 AM 6.61 first run
2:10 AM 6.61 no change
5:05 AM 6.61 no change
11:18 AM 6.60 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 6.5 o-110 → 6.5 o-108
12:17 PM 6.60 no change
1:17 PM 6.60 no change
2:17 PM 6.60 VAN goalie Leevi Merilainen: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-108 → 6.5 o-106
3:17 PM 6.61 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Mike Reilly (CAR) out +0.01; CAR lineup: Walt Ruff Oct 20 3:12 PM; Line 6.5 o-106 → 6.5 o-109
3:22 PM 6.61 no change
4:18 PM 6.61 CAR goalie Pyotr Kochetkov: Likely → Confirmed
5:17 PM 6.61 no change
6:17 PM 6.61 no change
6:45 PM 6.61 no change
7:14 PM 6.61 no change
7:17 PM 6.61 no change
7:45 PM 6.61 Line 6.5 o-109 → 6.5 o-108
8:17 PM 6.61 Line 6.5 o-108 → 6.5 o-105
8:46 PM 6.61 no change
9:17 PM 6.61 Line 6.5 o-105 → 6.5 o-103
9:26 PM 6.61 no change
9:42 PM 6.61 no change
9:45 PM 6.61 VAN lineup: Brendan Batchelor Oct 20 9:42 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: VAN projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (VAN 2.65). The 6.61 total looks high, but most of it comes from CAR; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, CAR is great (2.72) and VAN is trash (1.69); on the power play, CAR is great (0.82) and VAN is bad (0.51). CAR faces Leevi Merilainen, a Trash goalie, grade 9 (+2.4%); VAN faces Pyotr Kochetkov, a Mid goalie, grade 51 (-2.3%). Other factors: injuries cost CAR 4.8%; injuries help VAN 2.3%. CAR 3.96: 0.86 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.68 (its attack ranks #2 of 32, VAN's defense #31); power play +0.24 (its power play ranks #4, VAN's penalty kill and penalty habits #28); Leevi Merilainen in goal +0.09 (a Trash goalie, grade 9, +2.4%); team speed +0.05 (it skates faster than VAN, +1.3%). Holding it back: injuries -0.20 (missing players on both teams, net, -4.8%). VAN 2.65: 0.46 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: injuries +0.06 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.3%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.35 (its attack ranks #29 of 32, CAR's defense #8); power play -0.06 (its power play ranks #17, CAR's penalty kill and penalty habits #3); Pyotr Kochetkov in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 51, -2.3%); team speed -0.04 (it skates slower than CAR, -1.5%). The model projects 6.61 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 47% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 9 goals (CAR 6, VAN 3), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

9:40 PM ET🔨 SLAM

O 6.5 W
paper W +0.95u

DET#15 OFF / #17 DEF33.31●

D. Tarasov ✓ OK 26

SEA#27 OFF / #29 DEF43.21●

P. Grubauer ✓ Trash 11

7 goals · proj 6.53 · P(7+) 51%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
DET	2.10	0.62	+1.8%	0.48	–	+0.6%	+1.0%
SEA	2.13	0.57	-0.2%	0.49	–	-0.9%	+2.1%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
DET	1.91#25 of 32	2.24#30 of 32	2.10goals
SEA	2.13#11 of 32	2.04#17 of 32	2.13goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
DET	0.65#6 of 32	0.53#5 of 32	0.62goals
SEA	0.50#25 of 32	0.62#26 of 32	0.57goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
DET
Alex DeBrincat R	-5.3%	Plays
Lucas Raymond L	-3.6%	Plays
Dylan Larkin C	-3.4%	Plays
Moritz Seider D	-1.1%	Plays
Viktor Arvidsson L	-1.0%	Plays
SEA
Jared McCann L	-2.0%	Plays
Jordan Eberle R	-1.9%	Plays
Bobby McMann C	-1.5%	Plays
Matty Beniers C	-1.1%	Plays
Shane Wright C	-0.9%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
DET
Moritz Seider D	+1.4%	Plays
Lucas Raymond L	+1.2%	Plays
Alex DeBrincat R	+1.2%	Plays
Emmitt Finnie C	+0.7%	Plays
Dylan Larkin C	+0.6%	Plays
SEA
Jordan Eberle R	+0.8%	Plays
Matty Beniers C	+0.8%	Plays
Shane Wright C	+0.8%	Plays
Ryker Evans D	+0.7%	Plays
Berkly Catton C	+0.6%	Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.56 → 6.53)

12:02 AM 6.56 first run
2:10 AM 6.56 no change
5:05 AM 6.56 Line 6.5 o-103 → 6.5 o-104
11:18 AM 6.54 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01
12:17 PM 6.54 Line 6.5 o-104 → 6.5 o-103
1:17 PM 6.54 SEA goalie Philipp Grubauer: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-103 → 6.5 o-105
2:17 PM 6.54 no change
3:17 PM 6.54 DET lineup: Max Bultman Oct 20 2:44 PM
3:22 PM 6.54 no change
4:18 PM 6.54 no change
5:17 PM 6.54 no change
6:17 PM 6.54 no change
6:45 PM 6.54 no change
7:14 PM 6.54 no change
7:17 PM 6.54 no change
7:45 PM 6.54 no change
8:17 PM 6.54 no change
8:46 PM 6.54 no change
9:17 PM 6.54 no change
9:26 PM 6.53 -0.02Injuries / lineup: Brandon Montour (SEA) back in -0.02; Brandon Montour (SEA) day-to-day; SEA lineup: @sound_hockey Oct 20 9:21 PM

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

🔨 SLAM: both teams project as high-scoring (DET 3.31, SEA 3.21; cutoff 3.10), the line is 6.5, and both are good or better at 5-on-5, the strongest over spot the model has. At 5-on-5, DET is good (2.10) and SEA is good (2.13); on the power play, DET is good (0.62) and SEA is mid (0.57). DET faces Philipp Grubauer, a Trash goalie, grade 11 (+1.8%); SEA faces Daniil Tarasov, an OK goalie, grade 26 (-0.2%). Other factors: injuries help SEA 2.1%. DET 3.31: 0.21 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.06 (its attack ranks #25 of 32, SEA's defense #30); Philipp Grubauer in goal +0.06 (a Trash goalie, grade 11, +1.8%); power play +0.04 (its power play ranks #6, SEA's penalty kill and penalty habits #5); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.0%); team speed +0.02 (it skates faster than SEA, +0.6%). SEA 3.21: 0.11 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.09 (its attack ranks #11 of 32, DET's defense #17); injuries +0.07 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.1%). Holding it back: team speed -0.03 (it skates slower than DET, -0.9%). The model projects 6.53 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 51% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over 55% of the time at the opening line and 56.5% at the closing line in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (DET 3, SEA 4), so it went over 6.5 and the call was right.

9:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

MIN#3 OFF / #7 DEF32.93●

J. Wallstedt ✓ Mid 59

EDM#8 OFF / #10 DEF43.34●

D. Levi ✓ OK 23

7 goals · proj 6.27 · P(7+) 47%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
MIN	1.87	0.65	+0.1%	0.49	–	-4.1%	+1.5%
EDM	2.11	0.68	-2.9%	0.48	–	+4.6%	+0.4%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
MIN	2.02#17 of 32	1.89#6 of 32	1.87goals
EDM	2.22#7 of 32	1.93#9 of 32	2.11goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
MIN	0.63#9 of 32	0.57#15 of 32	0.65goals
EDM	0.66#5 of 32	0.57#17 of 32	0.68goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
MIN
Kirill Kaprizov L	-5.8%	Plays
Matt Boldy L	-4.7%	Plays
Joel Eriksson Ek C	-2.6%	Plays
Quinn Hughes D	-2.6%	Plays
Ryan Hartman R	-0.8%	Plays
EDM
Connor McDavid C	-7.9%	Plays
Leon Draisaitl C	-6.3%	Plays
Evan Bouchard D	-4.7%	Plays
Zach Hyman L	-2.8%	Plays
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C	-1.7%	OUT · IR

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
MIN
Quinn Hughes D	+1.9%	Plays
Kirill Kaprizov L	+1.6%	Plays
Matt Boldy L	+1.1%	Plays
Bobby Brink R	+1.1%	Plays
Jared Spurgeon D	+0.9%	OUT · IR
EDM
Connor McDavid C	+1.5%	Plays
Leon Draisaitl C	+1.5%	Plays
Evan Bouchard D	+1.4%	Plays
Vasily Podkolzin R	+1.3%	Plays
Zach Hyman L	+0.6%	Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.32 → 6.27)

12:02 AM 6.32 first run
2:10 AM 6.32 no change
5:05 AM 6.28 -0.04EDM goalie: Tristan Jarry → Devon Levi -0.04
11:18 AM 6.27 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01
12:17 PM 6.27 no change
1:17 PM 6.27 no change
2:17 PM 6.27 no change
3:17 PM 6.27 Injuries / lineup: Nico Sturm (MIN) back in +0.00; MIN goalie Jesper Wallstedt: Likely → Confirmed; MIN lineup: Joe Smith Oct 20 3:12 PM; EDM goalie Devon Levi: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o+100
3:22 PM 6.27 no change
4:18 PM 6.27 no change
5:17 PM 6.27 Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o-100
6:17 PM 6.27 no change
6:45 PM 6.27 Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o+100
7:14 PM 6.27 no change
7:17 PM 6.27 no change
7:45 PM 6.27 Line 6.5 o+100 → 6.5 o-100
8:17 PM 6.27 EDM lineup: Edmonton Oilers Oct 20 7:41 PM; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o+100
8:46 PM 6.27 no change

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: MIN projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (MIN 2.93). The 6.27 total looks high, but most of it comes from EDM; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, MIN is bad (1.87) and EDM is good (2.11); on the power play, MIN is good (0.65) and EDM is great (0.68). MIN faces Devon Levi, an OK goalie, grade 23 (+0.1%); EDM faces Jesper Wallstedt, a Mid goalie, grade 59 (-2.9%). Other factors: MIN's team speed costs 4.1%; EDM's team speed adds 4.6%. MIN 2.93: 0.17 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: power play +0.07 (its power play ranks #9, EDM's penalty kill and penalty habits #15); injuries +0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.5%). Holding it back: 5-on-5 matchup -0.17 (its attack ranks #17 of 32, EDM's defense #6); team speed -0.12 (it skates slower than EDM, -4.1%). EDM 3.34: 0.23 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: team speed +0.15 (it skates faster than MIN, +4.6%); power play +0.11 (its power play ranks #5, MIN's penalty kill and penalty habits #17); 5-on-5 matchup +0.07 (its attack ranks #7 of 32, MIN's defense #9); injuries +0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.4%). Holding it back: Jesper Wallstedt in goal -0.10 (a Mid goalie, grade 59, -2.9%). The model projects 6.27 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 47% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (MIN 3, EDM 4), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

7:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

SJS#23 OFF / #30 DEF42.60●

A. Nedeljkovic ✓ OK 23

MTL#13 OFF / #22 DEF33.67●

J. Dobes ✓ Good 63

7 goals · proj 6.27 · P(7+) 44%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
SJS	1.81	0.75	-3.2%	0.50	-8.0%	-3.0%	-1.9%
MTL	2.20	0.69	+0.1%	0.47	+6.5%	+3.2%	-0.7%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
SJS	1.81#28 of 32	2.03#16 of 32	1.81goals
MTL	2.10#12 of 32	2.13#23 of 32	2.20goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
SJS	0.61#12 of 32	0.68#29 of 32	0.75goals
MTL	0.53#22 of 32	0.72#32 of 32	0.69goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
SJS
Macklin Celebrini C	-4.9%	Plays
Will Smith C	-2.4%	Plays
Tyler Toffoli C	-1.9%	Plays
Alexander Wennberg C	-1.0%	OUT
Kiefer Sherwood L	-0.7%	Plays
MTL
Cole Caufield R	-5.4%	Plays
Nick Suzuki C	-5.0%	Plays
Juraj Slafkovský L	-3.4%	Plays
Lane Hutson D	-2.5%	Plays
Ivan Demidov R	-1.8%	OUT · IR

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
SJS
Macklin Celebrini C	+0.9%	Plays
Will Smith C	+0.7%	Plays
Tyler Toffoli C	+0.7%	Plays
Dmitry Orlov D	+0.6%	Plays
Sam Dickinson D	+0.4%	Plays
MTL
Lane Hutson D	+2.0%	Plays
Cole Caufield R	+1.3%	Plays
Zachary Bolduc R	+1.2%	Plays
Nick Suzuki C	+1.1%	Plays
Juraj Slafkovský L	+0.8%	Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.45 → 6.27)

12:02 AM 6.45 first run
2:10 AM 6.30 -0.14SJS goalie: Yaroslav Askarov → Alex Nedeljkovic -0.14
5:05 AM 6.30 no change
11:18 AM 6.29 -0.01MTL goalie: Jacob Fowler → Jakub Dobes -0.01; SJS lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-19); Line 6.5 o-118 → 6.5 o-120
12:17 PM 6.29 no change
1:17 PM 6.29 no change
2:17 PM 6.29 Injuries / lineup: Mike Matheson (MTL) out -0.00
3:17 PM 6.29 no change
3:22 PM 6.29 no change
4:18 PM 6.29 SJS goalie Alex Nedeljkovic: Likely → Confirmed
5:17 PM 6.27 -0.03Injuries / lineup: Alexander Wennberg (SJS) out -0.03; Line 6.5 o-120 → 6.5 o-123
6:17 PM 6.27 SJS lineup: Projected Oct 20 5:32 PM; Line 6.5 o-123 → 6.5 o-124
6:45 PM 6.27 SJS lineup: Max Miller Oct 20 6:38 PM; Line 6.5 o-124 → 6.5 o-125

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: SJS projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (SJS 2.60). The 6.27 total looks high, but most of it comes from MTL; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, SJS is trash (1.81) and MTL is great (2.20); on the power play, SJS is great (0.75) and MTL is great (0.69). SJS faces Jakub Dobes, a Good goalie, grade 63 (-3.2%); MTL faces Alex Nedeljkovic, an OK goalie, grade 23 (+0.1%). Other factors: SJS played yesterday (-8%); SJS's team speed costs 3.0%; injuries cost SJS 1.9%; MTL's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); MTL's team speed adds 3.2%. SJS 2.60: 0.51 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: power play +0.17 (its power play ranks #12, MTL's penalty kill and penalty habits #29). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.24 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.23 (its attack ranks #28 of 32, MTL's defense #16); Jakub Dobes in goal -0.10 (a Good goalie, grade 63, -3.2%); team speed -0.08 (it skates slower than MTL, -3.0%); injuries -0.05 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.9%). MTL 3.67: 0.57 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.22 (SJS played yesterday, +6.5%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.16 (its attack ranks #12 of 32, SJS's defense #23); team speed +0.11 (it skates faster than SJS, +3.2%); power play +0.11 (its power play ranks #22, SJS's penalty kill and penalty habits #32). Holding it back: injuries -0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.7%). The model projects 6.27 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 44% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (SJS 4, MTL 3), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

7:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

COL#2 OFF / #3 DEF33.39●

S. Wedgewood ✓ Good 71

NJD#10 OFF / #11 DEF42.84●

J. Allen ✓ Mid 49

7 goals · proj 6.23 · P(7+) 46%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
COL	2.50	0.53	-2.1%	0.49	-8.0%	+6.3%	+0.5%
NJD	1.95	0.51	-4.0%	0.49	+6.5%	-5.7%	–

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
COL	2.61#1 of 32	1.95#12 of 32	2.50goals
NJD	2.06#14 of 32	1.93#10 of 32	1.95goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
COL	0.56#19 of 32	0.52#4 of 32	0.53goals
NJD	0.59#15 of 32	0.48#2 of 32	0.51goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
COL
Nathan MacKinnon C	-7.0%	Plays
Martin Necas C	-5.2%	Plays
Cale Makar D	-3.2%	Plays
Brock Nelson C	-2.9%	Plays
Artturi Lehkonen L	-2.7%	Plays
NJD
Jack Hughes C	-4.1%	Plays
Jesper Bratt L	-3.5%	Plays
Nico Hischier C	-3.4%	Plays
Timo Meier R	-1.9%	Plays
Dougie Hamilton D	-1.4%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
COL
Martin Necas C	+1.5%	Plays
Nathan MacKinnon C	+1.4%	Plays
Sam Malinski D	+1.3%	Plays
Brett Kulak D	+0.9%	Plays
Cale Makar D	+0.9%	Plays
NJD
Jack Hughes C	+1.2%	Plays
Luke Hughes D	+1.1%	Plays
Jesper Bratt L	+1.0%	Plays
Dougie Hamilton D	+0.9%	Plays
Arseny Gritsyuk R	+0.9%	Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.45 → 6.23)

12:02 AM 6.45 first run
2:10 AM 6.38 -0.07COL goalie: Mackenzie Blackwood → Scott Wedgewood -0.07; Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o+102
5:05 AM 6.38 COL goalie Scott Wedgewood: Likely → Confirmed
11:18 AM 6.23 -0.15NJD goalie: Nico Daws → Jake Allen -0.10; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.06; Injuries / lineup: Stefan Noesen (NJD) out, Connor Brown (NJD) back in, Luke Evangelista (NJD) back in +0.01; COL lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-19); NJD lineup: Mike Morreale Oct 20 10:47 AM
12:17 PM 6.23 Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o-101
1:17 PM 6.23 Anthony Mantha (NJD) off day-to-day; Line 6.5 o-101 → 6.5 o-100
2:17 PM 6.23 no change
3:17 PM 6.23 no change
3:22 PM 6.23 no change
4:18 PM 6.23 Line 6.5 o-100 → 6.5 o-104
5:17 PM 6.23 no change
6:17 PM 6.23 no change
6:45 PM 6.23 COL lineup: Corey Masisak Oct 20 6:43 PM; Line 6.5 o-104 → 6.5 o-105

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: NJD projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (NJD 2.84). The 6.23 total looks high, but most of it comes from COL; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, COL is great (2.50) and NJD is mid (1.95); on the power play, COL is mid (0.53) and NJD is bad (0.51). COL faces Jake Allen, a Mid goalie, grade 49 (-2.1%); NJD faces Scott Wedgewood, a Good goalie, grade 71 (-4.0%). Other factors: COL played yesterday (-8%); COL's team speed adds 6.3%; NJD's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); NJD's team speed costs 5.7%. COL 3.39: 0.29 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.46 (its attack ranks #1 of 32, NJD's defense #12); team speed +0.20 (it skates faster than NJD, +6.3%); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.5%). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.28 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); Jake Allen in goal -0.08 (a Mid goalie, grade 49, -2.1%); power play -0.04 (its power play ranks #19, NJD's penalty kill and penalty habits #4). NJD 2.84: 0.26 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.18 (COL played yesterday, +6.5%). Holding it back: team speed -0.17 (it skates slower than COL, -5.7%); Scott Wedgewood in goal -0.12 (a Good goalie, grade 71, -4.0%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.09 (its attack ranks #14 of 32, COL's defense #10); power play -0.07 (its power play ranks #15, COL's penalty kill and penalty habits #2). The model projects 6.23 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 46% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (COL 3, NJD 4), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

7:00 PM ETAVOID

U 5.5 ✓ under

ANA#9 OFF / #24 DEF22.82●

L. Dostal ✓ OK 32

NYI#25 OFF / #15 DEF33.31●

I. Sorokin ✓ Strong 93

5 goals · proj 6.13 · P(7+) 45%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
ANA	2.12	0.74	-8.4%	0.51	-8.0%	-0.7%	–
NYI	2.10	0.57	-0.7%	0.48	+6.5%	+1.2%	-1.8%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
ANA	2.08#13 of 32	2.08#20 of 32	2.12goals
NYI	1.95#21 of 32	2.20#26 of 32	2.10goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
ANA	0.60#14 of 32	0.69#30 of 32	0.74goals
NYI	0.52#24 of 32	0.61#24 of 32	0.57goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
ANA
Beckett Sennecke R	-3.1%	Plays
Cutter Gauthier L	-3.1%	Plays
Leo Carlsson C	-3.0%	Plays
Mikael Granlund C	-1.9%	Plays
Troy Terry R	-1.4%	OUT · IR
NYI
Bo Horvat C	-2.9%	Plays
Matthew Schaefer D	-2.0%	Plays
Mathew Barzal C	-1.8%	OUT · IR
Brayden Schenn C	-1.0%	Plays
Simon Holmstrom R	-0.8%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
ANA
Leo Carlsson C	+0.6%	Plays
Beckett Sennecke R	+0.5%	Plays
Cutter Gauthier L	+0.4%	Plays
Ian Moore D	+0.4%	OUT · IR
Tyson Hinds D	+0.2%	Plays
NYI
Matthew Schaefer D	+1.0%	Plays
Mathew Barzal C	+0.7%	OUT · IR
Emil Heineman L	+0.7%	Plays
Ondrej Palat L	+0.6%	Plays
Brayden Schenn C	+0.5%	Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (6.09 → 6.13)

12:02 AM 6.09 first run
2:10 AM 6.09 ANA goalie Lukas Dostal: Conflict → Confirmed; Line 6 o-115 → 6 o-124
5:05 AM 6.09 no change
11:18 AM 6.13 +0.04Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.04; ANA lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-19); NYI goalie Ilya Sorokin: Likely → Confirmed; Line 6 o-124 → 6 o-119
12:17 PM 6.13 Line 6 o-119 → 6 o-117
1:17 PM 6.13 Line 6 o-117 → 5.5 o-131
2:17 PM 6.13 Line 5.5 o-131 → 5.5 o-132
3:17 PM 6.13 no change
3:22 PM 6.13 no change
4:18 PM 6.13 no change
5:17 PM 6.13 no change
6:17 PM 6.13 no change
6:45 PM 6.13 Line 5.5 o-132 → 5.5 o-129

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: ANA projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (ANA 2.82); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. The 6.13 total looks high, but most of it comes from NYI; the over rule needs both teams scoring. At 5-on-5, ANA is good (2.12) and NYI is good (2.10); on the power play, ANA is great (0.74) and NYI is mid (0.57). ANA faces Ilya Sorokin, a Strong goalie, grade 93 (-8.4%); NYI faces Lukas Dostal, an OK goalie, grade 32 (-0.7%). Other factors: ANA played yesterday (-8%); NYI's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); injuries cost NYI 1.8%. ANA 2.82: 0.29 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: power play +0.17 (its power play ranks #14, NYI's penalty kill and penalty habits #30); 5-on-5 matchup +0.08 (its attack ranks #13 of 32, NYI's defense #20). Holding it back: Ilya Sorokin in goal -0.28 (a Strong goalie, grade 93, -8.4%); back-to-back -0.25 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); team speed -0.02 (it skates slower than NYI, -0.7%). NYI 3.31: 0.21 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.20 (ANA played yesterday, +6.5%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.06 (its attack ranks #21 of 32, ANA's defense #26); team speed +0.04 (it skates faster than ANA, +1.2%). Holding it back: injuries -0.06 (missing players on both teams, net, -1.8%); Lukas Dostal in goal -0.02 (an OK goalie, grade 32, -0.7%). The model projects 6.13 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 6.5 to 5.5, toward the under. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (ANA 2, NYI 3), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.

7:00 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

TOR#20 OFF / #31 DEF62.57●

A. Stolarz ✓ Good 70

CBJ#21 OFF / #25 DEF23.42●

J. Greaves ✓ Strong 85

8 goals · proj 5.99 · P(7+) 42%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
TOR	1.94	0.67	-6.4%	0.50	-8.0%	-1.6%	-2.8%
CBJ	2.20	0.54	-3.9%	0.48	+6.5%	+1.6%	+2.4%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
TOR	1.92#24 of 32	2.07#19 of 32	1.94goals
CBJ	2.02#16 of 32	2.22#29 of 32	2.20goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
TOR	0.60#13 of 32	0.62#25 of 32	0.67goals
CBJ	0.45#30 of 32	0.66#27 of 32	0.54goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
TOR
William Nylander R	-4.6%	Plays
Auston Matthews C	-4.2%	Plays
John Tavares C	-3.1%	OUT · IR
Kirill Marchenko R	-1.5%	Plays
Darren Raddysh D	-1.2%	Plays
CBJ
Zach Werenski D	-2.6%	Plays
Adam Fantilli C	-2.4%	Plays
Sean Monahan C	-1.4%	Plays
Charlie Coyle C	-1.3%	Plays
Kent Johnson C	-1.3%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
TOR
Darren Raddysh D	+0.6%	Plays
Jack Roslovic C	+0.4%	Plays
Kirill Marchenko R	+0.4%	Plays
Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	+0.3%	Plays
Nick Paul L	+0.3%	Plays
CBJ
Kent Johnson C	+1.1%	Plays
Adam Fantilli C	+0.9%	Plays
Zach Werenski D	+0.6%	Plays
Denton Mateychuk D	+0.5%	Plays
Danton Heinen L	+0.5%	OUT · scratch

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (5.90 → 5.99)

12:02 AM 5.90 first run
2:10 AM 5.90 TOR goalie Anthony Stolarz: Conflict → Confirmed
5:05 AM 5.92 +0.02Injuries / lineup: Isac Lundestrom (CBJ) out +0.02
11:18 AM 5.99 +0.08Injuries / lineup: Danton Heinen (CBJ) out, Dmitri Voronkov (CBJ) back in +0.04; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) +0.04; TOR lineup: last game's lineup (2026-10-19); CBJ goalie Jet Greaves: Likely → Confirmed; CBJ lineup: Mark Scheig Oct 20 10:35 AM
12:17 PM 5.99 no change
1:17 PM 5.99 TOR lineup: Projected Oct 20 12:20 PM; Line 6.5 o-105 → 6.5 o-109
2:17 PM 5.99 no change
3:17 PM 5.99 no change
3:22 PM 5.99 no change
4:18 PM 5.99 no change
5:17 PM 5.99 no change
6:17 PM 5.99 no change
6:45 PM 5.99 Line 6.5 o-109 → 6.5 o-106

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: TOR projects under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (TOR 2.57). At 5-on-5, TOR is mid (1.94) and CBJ is great (2.20); on the power play, TOR is great (0.67) and CBJ is mid (0.54). TOR faces Jet Greaves, a Strong goalie, grade 85 (-6.4%); CBJ faces Anthony Stolarz, a Good goalie, grade 70 (-3.9%). Other factors: TOR played yesterday (-8%); injuries cost TOR 2.8%; CBJ's opponent played yesterday (+6.5%); injuries help CBJ 2.4%. TOR 2.57: 0.53 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: power play +0.09 (its power play ranks #13, CBJ's penalty kill and penalty habits #25). Holding it back: back-to-back -0.23 (it played yesterday, -8.0%); Jet Greaves in goal -0.20 (a Strong goalie, grade 85, -6.4%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.10 (its attack ranks #24 of 32, CBJ's defense #19); injuries -0.07 (missing players on both teams, net, -2.8%); team speed -0.04 (it skates slower than CBJ, -1.6%). CBJ 3.42: 0.32 goals above what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: back-to-back +0.20 (TOR played yesterday, +6.5%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.16 (its attack ranks #16 of 32, TOR's defense #29); injuries +0.08 (missing players on both teams, net, +2.4%); team speed +0.05 (it skates faster than TOR, +1.6%). Holding it back: Anthony Stolarz in goal -0.13 (a Good goalie, grade 70, -3.9%); power play -0.04 (its power play ranks #30, TOR's penalty kill and penalty habits #27). The model projects 5.99 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 42% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 8 goals (TOR 6, CBJ 2), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

10:30 PM ETAVOID

O 6.5 ✗ went over

TBL#4 OFF / #5 DEF63.01●

A. Vasilevskiy ✓ Strong 92

VGK#6 OFF / #4 DEF22.97●

C. Hart ✓ Trash 18

8 goals · proj 5.98 · P(7+) 45%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
TBL	2.08	0.39	+0.7%	0.48	–	+0.4%	+0.7%
VGK	2.01	0.70	-8.0%	0.49	–	-0.4%	+1.3%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
TBL	2.28#5 of 32	1.86#4 of 32	2.08goals
VGK	2.21#8 of 32	1.85#3 of 32	2.01goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
TBL	0.56#20 of 32	0.39#1 of 32	0.39goals
VGK	0.70#3 of 32	0.55#11 of 32	0.70goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
TBL
Nikita Kucherov R	-7.4%	Plays
Brandon Hagel L	-5.2%	Plays
Jake Guentzel C	-5.0%	Plays
Brayden Point C	-3.5%	Plays
Anthony Cirelli C	-2.8%	Plays
VGK
Jack Eichel C	-4.7%	Plays
Mark Stone R	-4.1%	Plays
Mitch Marner R	-3.8%	Plays
Tomas Hertl C	-3.6%	Plays
Ivan Barbashev L	-1.8%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
TBL
Gage Goncalves C	+1.3%	Plays
Pontus Holmberg R	+1.1%	Plays
Nikita Kucherov R	+1.1%	Plays
Jake Guentzel C	+0.9%	Plays
Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	+0.9%	Plays
VGK
Tomas Hertl C	+1.6%	Plays
Shea Theodore D	+1.4%	Plays
Mark Stone R	+1.2%	Plays
Ivan Barbashev L	+1.1%	Plays
Noah Hanifin D	+1.0%	Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (5.99 → 5.98)

12:02 AM 5.99 first run
2:10 AM 5.99 no change
5:05 AM 5.99 no change
11:18 AM 5.97 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 6.5 o+104 → 6.5 o+103
12:17 PM 5.97 Line 6.5 o+103 → 6.5 o+102
1:17 PM 5.97 no change
2:17 PM 5.97 Line 6.5 o+102 → 6.5 o+101
3:17 PM 5.97 TBL goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy: Likely → Confirmed; VGK goalie Carter Hart: Likely → Confirmed
3:22 PM 5.97 no change
4:18 PM 5.97 no change
5:17 PM 5.97 Line 6.5 o+101 → 6.5 o-109
6:17 PM 5.97 no change
6:45 PM 5.97 no change
7:14 PM 5.97 no change
7:17 PM 5.97 no change
7:45 PM 5.97 no change
8:17 PM 5.97 no change
8:46 PM 5.97 no change
9:17 PM 5.97 no change
9:26 PM 5.97 no change
9:42 PM 5.97 no change
9:45 PM 5.97 no change
10:18 PM 5.98 +0.01Injuries / lineup: Dominic James (TBL) out, Max Crozier (TBL) out, Emil Lilleberg (TBL) back in +0.01; TBL lineup: Gabby Shirley Oct 20 10:14 PM; Line 6.5 o-109 → 6.5 o-105

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: TBL and VGK project under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (TBL 3.01, VGK 2.97). At 5-on-5, TBL is good (2.08) and VGK is mid (2.01); on the power play, TBL is trash (0.39) and VGK is great (0.70). TBL faces Carter Hart, a Trash goalie, grade 18 (+0.7%); VGK faces Andrei Vasilevskiy, a Strong goalie, grade 92 (-8.0%). TBL 3.01: 0.09 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: 5-on-5 matchup +0.04 (its attack ranks #5 of 32, VGK's defense #4); Carter Hart in goal +0.02 (a Trash goalie, grade 18, +0.7%); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.7%); team speed +0.01 (it skates faster than VGK, +0.4%). Holding it back: power play -0.18 (its power play ranks #20, VGK's penalty kill and penalty habits #1). VGK 2.97: 0.13 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: power play +0.12 (its power play ranks #3, TBL's penalty kill and penalty habits #11); injuries +0.04 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.3%). Holding it back: Andrei Vasilevskiy in goal -0.26 (a Strong goalie, grade 92, -8.0%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.03 (its attack ranks #8 of 32, TBL's defense #3); team speed -0.01 (it skates slower than TBL, -0.4%). The model projects 5.98 total goals against a 6.5 line, with a 45% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). The line moved from 5.5 to 6.5, toward the over. Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 8 goals (TBL 6, VGK 2), so it went over 6.5 and the call was wrong.

8:00 PM ETAVOID

U 5.5 ✓ under

WPG#22 OFF / #21 DEF12.86●

S. Skinner ✓ Mid 49

STL#26 OFF / #16 DEF23.06●

J. Hofer ✓ Mid 59

3 goals · proj 5.92 · P(7+) 44%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
WPG	1.96	0.55	-2.9%	0.49	–	-1.3%	-0.4%
STL	2.07	0.45	-2.1%	0.49	–	+0.9%	+3.2%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
WPG	1.97#20 of 32	2.02#15 of 32	1.96goals
STL	1.99#19 of 32	2.12#22 of 32	2.07goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
WPG	0.56#21 of 32	0.54#7 of 32	0.55goals
STL	0.46#29 of 32	0.55#10 of 32	0.45goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
WPG
Kyle Connor L	-4.9%	Plays
Mark Scheifele C	-4.5%	Plays
Gabriel Vilardi C	-2.8%	Plays
Cole Perfetti C	-1.6%	Plays
Josh Morrissey D	-1.2%	OUT · IR
STL
Robert Thomas C	-2.8%	Plays
Dylan Holloway L	-1.9%	Plays
Jimmy Snuggerud R	-1.9%	Plays
Pavel Buchnevich L	-1.3%	Plays
Jake Neighbours L	-1.1%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
WPG
Cole Perfetti C	+1.3%	Plays
Josh Morrissey D	+0.9%	OUT · IR
Nino Niederreiter R	+0.8%	Plays
Alex Iafallo L	+0.7%	Plays
Gabriel Vilardi C	+0.6%	Plays
STL
Dylan Holloway L	+0.9%	Plays
Dalibor Dvorsky R	+0.7%	Plays
Cam Fowler D	+0.7%	Plays
Jake Neighbours L	+0.7%	Plays
Jimmy Snuggerud R	+0.7%	Plays

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (5.93 → 5.92)

12:02 AM 5.93 first run
2:10 AM 5.93 Line 5.5 o-125 → 5.5 o-126
5:05 AM 5.93 no change
11:18 AM 5.92 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; Line 5.5 o-126 → 5.5 o-125
12:17 PM 5.92 no change
1:17 PM 5.92 WPG goalie Stuart Skinner: Likely → Confirmed; WPG lineup: Ken Wiebe Oct 20 1:15 PM; STL goalie Joel Hofer: Likely → Confirmed; STL lineup: Lou Korac Oct 20 12:27 PM
2:17 PM 5.92 no change
3:17 PM 5.92 Line 5.5 o-125 → 5.5 o-126
3:22 PM 5.92 no change
4:18 PM 5.92 no change
5:17 PM 5.92 Line 5.5 o-126 → 5.5 o-127
6:17 PM 5.92 no change
6:45 PM 5.92 no change
7:14 PM 5.92 Line 5.5 o-127 → 5.5 o-126
7:17 PM 5.92 no change
7:45 PM 5.92 no change

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: WPG and STL project under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (WPG 2.86, STL 3.06); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, WPG is mid (1.96) and STL is good (2.07); on the power play, WPG is mid (0.55) and STL is trash (0.45). WPG faces Joel Hofer, a Mid goalie, grade 59 (-2.9%); STL faces Stuart Skinner, a Mid goalie, grade 49 (-2.1%). Other factors: injuries help STL 3.2%. WPG 2.86: 0.25 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Holding it back: Joel Hofer in goal -0.09 (a Mid goalie, grade 59, -2.9%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.08 (its attack ranks #20 of 32, STL's defense #15); team speed -0.04 (it skates slower than STL, -1.3%); power play -0.03 (its power play ranks #21, STL's penalty kill and penalty habits #7); injuries -0.01 (missing players on both teams, net, -0.4%). STL 3.06: 0.04 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: injuries +0.10 (missing players on both teams, net, +3.2%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.03 (its attack ranks #19 of 32, WPG's defense #22); team speed +0.03 (it skates faster than WPG, +0.9%). Holding it back: power play -0.12 (its power play ranks #29, WPG's penalty kill and penalty habits #10); Stuart Skinner in goal -0.06 (a Mid goalie, grade 49, -2.1%). The model projects 5.92 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 44% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 3 goals (WPG 1, STL 2), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.

8:00 PM ETAVOID ⚠ lineup

U 5.5 ✓ under

BOS#17 OFF / #14 DEF22.97●

J. Swayman ✓ Strong 88

DAL#24 OFF / #2 DEF32.92●

J. Oettinger ✓ Good 73

5 goals · proj 5.89 · P(7+) 44%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
BOS	2.01	0.59	-4.3%	0.49	–	-0.5%	+0.9%
DAL	1.96	0.67	-7.0%	0.49	–	-0.2%	+1.0%

Why this call

⚠ Lineup change since 12:02 AM: Pavel Zacha now Plays (was OUT, seen 1:17 PM) · BOS +2.4% · projection 5.79 → 5.89

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
BOS	2.17#9 of 32	1.88#5 of 32	2.01goals
DAL	1.92#23 of 32	2.08#21 of 32	1.96goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
BOS	0.57#18 of 32	0.57#19 of 32	0.59goals
DAL	0.65#7 of 32	0.57#18 of 32	0.67goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
BOS
David Pastrnak R	-4.4%	Plays
Morgan Geekie C	-3.4%	Plays
⚠ Pavel Zacha C	-2.4%	Playswas OUT
Elias Lindholm C	-1.6%	Plays
Charlie McAvoy D	-1.0%	Plays
DAL
Jason Robertson L	-5.3%	Plays
Wyatt Johnston C	-4.1%	Plays
Mikko Rantanen R	-3.8%	Plays
Roope Hintz C	-2.5%	Plays
Miro Heiskanen D	-1.5%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
BOS
David Pastrnak R	+0.9%	Plays
Morgan Geekie C	+0.7%	Plays
Mason Lohrei D	+0.7%	Plays
Casey Mittelstadt C	+0.5%	Plays
Tanner Jeannot L	+0.3%	Plays
DAL
Jason Robertson L	+1.5%	Plays
Miro Heiskanen D	+1.3%	Plays
Mikko Rantanen R	+1.1%	Plays
Thomas Harley D	+1.1%	Plays
Nils Lundkvist D	+1.0%	Plays

Also out: DAL: Matt Duchene -1.4% attack, +0.3% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (5.79 → 5.89)

12:02 AM 5.79 first run
2:10 AM 5.79 Line 5.5 o-120 → 5.5 o-119
5:05 AM 5.79 Line 5.5 o-119 → 5.5 o-118
11:18 AM 5.78 -0.01Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01
12:17 PM 5.82 +0.04Injuries / lineup: Esa Lindell (DAL) out +0.04; DAL goalie Jake Oettinger: Likely → Confirmed; Line 5.5 o-118 → 5.5 o-120
1:17 PM 5.89 +0.08Injuries / lineup: Jonathan Aspirot (BOS) out, Pavel Zacha (BOS) back in +0.07; BOS goalie Jeremy Swayman: Likely → Confirmed; BOS lineup: Belle Fraser Oct 20 1:14 PM
2:17 PM 5.89 no change
3:17 PM 5.89 no change
3:22 PM 5.89 no change
4:18 PM 5.89 no change
5:17 PM 5.89 no change
6:17 PM 5.89 no change
6:45 PM 5.89 no change
7:14 PM 5.89 no change
7:17 PM 5.89 no change
7:45 PM 5.89 Line 5.5 o-120 → 5.5 o-119

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: BOS and DAL project under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (BOS 2.97, DAL 2.92); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, BOS is mid (2.01) and DAL is mid (1.96); on the power play, BOS is mid (0.59) and DAL is great (0.67). BOS faces Jake Oettinger, a Good goalie, grade 73 (-4.3%); DAL faces Jeremy Swayman, a Strong goalie, grade 88 (-7.0%). BOS 2.97: 0.14 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.9%); power play +0.01 (its power play ranks #18, DAL's penalty kill and penalty habits #19). Holding it back: Jake Oettinger in goal -0.13 (a Good goalie, grade 73, -4.3%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.03 (its attack ranks #9 of 32, DAL's defense #5); team speed -0.02 (it skates slower than DAL, -0.5%). DAL 2.92: 0.18 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: power play +0.09 (its power play ranks #7, BOS's penalty kill and penalty habits #18); injuries +0.03 (missing players on both teams, net, +1.0%). Holding it back: Jeremy Swayman in goal -0.22 (a Strong goalie, grade 88, -7.0%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.08 (its attack ranks #23 of 32, BOS's defense #21). The model projects 5.89 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 44% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 5 goals (BOS 2, DAL 3), so it stayed under 5.5 and the call was right.

7:00 PM ETAVOID

O 5.5 ✗ went over

LAK#28 OFF / #12 DEF52.75●

D. Kuemper ✓ OK 38

WSH#12 OFF / #23 DEF23.09●

L. Thompson ✓ Strong 93

7 goals · proj 5.84 · P(7+) 42%

	5v5	PP	Gl	Oth	B2B	Spd	Inj
LAK	1.93	0.61	-8.5%	0.50	–	-1.7%	+0.8%
WSH	2.07	0.52	-1.2%	0.48	–	+1.8%	-0.1%

Why this call

Team	5-on-5
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
LAK	1.78#30 of 32	2.20#27 of 32	1.93goals
WSH	2.30#3 of 32	1.82#1 of 32	2.07goals

Team	Power play
Team	OFF	OPP DEF	Proj
LAK	0.48#28 of 32	0.70#31 of 32	0.61goals
WSH	0.50#26 of 32	0.58#20 of 32	0.52goals

Key players: top 5 attackers & defenders

Top 5 attackers
Player	If out	Pre-game
LAK
Artemi Panarin L	-4.0%	Plays
Adrian Kempe R	-3.4%	Plays
Quinton Byfield R	-1.6%	Plays
Kevin Fiala L	-1.2%	OUT · IR
Alex Laferriere R	-0.9%	Plays
WSH
Alex Ovechkin L	-3.5%	Plays
Tom Wilson R	-3.1%	Plays
Dylan Strome C	-2.8%	Plays
Jakob Chychrun D	-2.4%	Plays
Aliaksei Protas L	-1.7%	Plays

Top 5 defenders
Player	If out	Pre-game
LAK
Brandt Clarke D	+1.8%	Plays
Artemi Panarin L	+1.2%	Plays
Adrian Kempe R	+1.1%	Plays
Quinton Byfield R	+0.9%	Plays
Drew Doughty D	+0.9%	Plays
WSH
Jakob Chychrun D	+1.1%	Plays
Justin Sourdif C	+0.7%	OUT
Rasmus Sandin D	+0.5%	OUT · IR
Dylan Strome C	+0.5%	Plays
Ryan Leonard R	+0.5%	Plays

Also out: WSH: Pierre-Luc Dubois -0.9% attack, +0.3% defense

Defender numbers are a rough guide: tested on 2021-26 lineups, the defensive side of the injury adjustment is too small and noisy to prove on its own (it swings season to season). Attacker numbers hold up every season.

How the projection moved on game day (5.86 → 5.84)

12:02 AM 5.86 first run
2:10 AM 5.86 no change
5:05 AM 5.86 no change
11:18 AM 5.87 LAK goalie: Anton Forsberg → Darcy Kuemper +0.01; Ratings / other data updated (finished games, refreshed stats) -0.01; LAK lineup: Zach Dooley Oct 20 11:02 AM; WSH goalie Logan Thompson: Likely → Confirmed; WSH lineup: Sammi Silber Oct 20 11:12 AM; Line 5.5 o-126 → 5.5 o-121
12:17 PM 5.83 -0.03Injuries / lineup: Matt Roy (WSH) back in -0.03; LAK goalie Darcy Kuemper: Likely → Confirmed; LAK lineup: Zach Dooley Oct 20 12:03 PM
1:17 PM 5.84 Injuries / lineup: Mats Zuccarello (LAK) back in +0.00; Line 5.5 o-121 → 5.5 o-124
2:17 PM 5.84 LAK lineup: Zach Dooley Oct 20 1:22 PM
3:17 PM 5.84 Line 5.5 o-124 → 5.5 o-126
3:22 PM 5.84 no change
4:18 PM 5.84 Line 5.5 o-126 → 5.5 o-124
5:17 PM 5.84 no change
6:17 PM 5.84 no change
6:45 PM 5.84 Line 5.5 o-124 → 5.5 o-115

A log of every model run for this game (about hourly, frozen at puck drop): the change in the total and what caused it (a goalie switch, players out / back in, or ratings / other data such as games finished elsewhere and refreshed stats), plus anything else the scraper picked up (goalie confirmed, day-to-day players, a new projected lineup, the line moving), or no change. Each team's change is split by how much each factor moved; small leftovers count as ratings / other.

AVOID: LAK and WSH project under the 3.10-goal high-scoring cutoff (LAK 2.75, WSH 3.09); the line is 5.5, and only 6 and 6.5 qualify. At 5-on-5, LAK is bad (1.93) and WSH is good (2.07); on the power play, LAK is good (0.61) and WSH is bad (0.52). LAK faces Logan Thompson, a Strong goalie, grade 93 (-8.5%); WSH faces Darcy Kuemper, an OK goalie, grade 38 (-1.2%). LAK 2.75: 0.35 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: power play +0.03 (its power play ranks #28, WSH's penalty kill and penalty habits #31); injuries +0.02 (missing players on both teams, net, +0.8%). Holding it back: Logan Thompson in goal -0.26 (a Strong goalie, grade 93, -8.5%); 5-on-5 matchup -0.11 (its attack ranks #30 of 32, WSH's defense #27); team speed -0.05 (it skates slower than WSH, -1.7%). WSH 3.09: 0.02 goals below what an average team would score (3.10). Pushing it up: team speed +0.05 (it skates faster than LAK, +1.8%); 5-on-5 matchup +0.02 (its attack ranks #3 of 32, LAK's defense #1). Holding it back: power play -0.05 (its power play ranks #26, LAK's penalty kill and penalty habits #20); Darcy Kuemper in goal -0.04 (an OK goalie, grade 38, -1.2%). The model projects 5.84 total goals against a 5.5 line, with a 42% chance of 7 or more (a typical game is about 45%). Games like this went over only 47-49% of the time in 2021-26. Final: 7 goals (LAK 5, WSH 2), so it went over 5.5 and the call was wrong.